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Nashvilletwin

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  1. Nashvilletwin
    1. Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs. No one in their right mind except the evil judge or Max Mercy would trade Roy Hobbs. 2. Royce Lewis = potentially the Twins’ Derek Jeter. Who would trade Derek Jeter? 3. Brooks Lee - by the end of ‘24 he will be a better hitting and defensive shortstop than our $30MM+/year incumbent at less than 1/30th of the cost. Can you imagine his value then? His value is about to skyrocket. He stays - certainly for now and hopefully for a decade. 4. Pablo Lopez - this FO’s best trade and sign deal ever - no other comes close. No chance he is traded: the FO needs something to keep reminding us how smart they are, 5. Ryan Jeffers - a solid hitting, improving defensively young catcher at a great cost. That’s absolute gold. He is going nowhere. 6, Johan Duran - see Jeffers above except replace catcher with closer.
  2. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s remove Dobnak from the discussion and focus on the other three. When those three deals were signed, it fair to say they were reasonable, if not attractive, to the Twins (both financially and strategically, i.e. some players might be worth more to some teams for whatever reasons). However, that’s not the point of this article. The point is where are those three contracts today. Each probably retains some “strategic” value to the Twins, albeit less than when signed. Financially? Well, there is a fairly efficient market for talent in MLB. What would the “market” say about each of these three today, right now? Could each be signed for more or less over remaining years of their respective contracts? That’s the point of the article. Lots of comments today rightly point out that there is still time left on these deals and performances could rebound. Fair. But those possibilities would be built into the current “market” price. So is the current market price higher or lower for those three deals? It appears the point of the article is that, for the Twins, these three would be the most under water versus current market prices. That’s not unreasonable. The good news, of course, it’s we probably only have three of these and, yes, performance may rebound. Right? Need to look no further than Kepler - he looks like a steal today and six months ago that certainly was not the case.
  3. Nashvilletwin
    1. In ‘25 and for the following four years, Lee will be better defensively and offensively at SS than Correa at less than 1/30th the cost. 2. The Twins for the second half of this decade will be built around Lewis, Jenkins, Lee and, possibly, Jeffers. Those are four superior bats with average to above average fielding - with three of them playing up the middle. Each of those players could be multiple times all stars from ‘25-‘30. 3. Lee has the pedigree, experience, and bat to ball skills (as a switch hitter nonetheless) which points to an incredibly high floor. 4. The Twins have several other young shortstop/infielder prospects who will grow in value over the next couple of years but still do not have Lee’s upside. Trade them (although I envision Miller playing the incredibly important and underrated stud defensive utilty infielder role on several championship contending Twins teams later this decade). Botton line: Keep Lee as a key piece setting ourselves up for a multi year true open window.
  4. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Also, in 12 months, Lee will be a better offensive and defensive SS than Correa at 1/30th cost for the following five years. That’s the equivalent of having an outstanding young QB on a rookie contract.
  5. Nashvilletwin
    Excellent comments on this thread.
  6. Nashvilletwin
    1. The Twins’ success in 2023 was driven by having two top starters. For 2024, Paddack cannot be assumed to fill one of those roles at this point. A solid #2 is the biggest hole in this lineup. 2. The Twins will reduce payroll. Solving point #1 above cannot be done without moving top prospects or generating available cash by moving at least one expensive vet. Assuming the FA cost of a true #2 is about $20-25MM and the target team salary budget is $135MM, Twins would need to cut about $10MM. 3. In a payroll cutting environment, expected production/value per $ spent becomes a highly relevant metric. 4, Kepler, Polanco and Vasquez each make about the same -$10MM. 5. Which of those three players should we move to open up the necessary $s? Purely on a production/$ basis, as well as the ability to sign a cheap veteran backup if necessary, isn’t Vasquez the logical choice? Put another way, if you could have a Sonny Gray type plus two of those three players, which two players have the highest floors and greatest upside? 6. As an aside, I’d move both Vasquez and Polanco and reinvest both of their salaries in starting pitching.
  7. Nashvilletwin
    Hmm, an infielder and a corner bat? We have both of those - and good ones - in Polanco and Kepler. What could we get back for either or both? I still think we want to keep Kepler, but his price will probably never be higher.
  8. Nashvilletwin
    Couldn’t agree more. And if need be, move Vázquez for another $10MM in savings (the savings would be enough - don’t need much in terms of prospects returned). Take the $35MM and resign both Gray and Maeda to 2 year deals. Bump payroll to the top limit of $140MM if required. Within that two year period our next batch of promising (and cheap) starters should be ready and cash will be available for possible extensions (Ryan, Paddack, Ober and others). With cutting payroll this season, production per $ spent is incredibly important. We have five high cost position players: Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, and Vasquez. Correa and Buxton aren’t going anywhere and Kepler (high production second half Kepler) plays a position of relative weak depth at the moment. Polanco and Vasquez’s production are most cost effectively easily replaced. Both have two years of control and won’t/shouldn’t be here next year anyway. Those two (in that order) make the most sense to move for FA starting pitching.
  9. Nashvilletwin
    None of these five are getting traded. Walker Jenkins = Roy Hobbs. No one is trading away Roy Hobbs. Royce Lewis = the Twins’ Derek Jeter (except Royce plays 3rd). No one is trading away our Derek Jeter. Pablo Lopez - no chance the FO trades the best trade (and sign) they ever made by a mile in their careers. Brooks Lee - no chance we trade a solid decade of plus fielding and hitting from this sure fire (and cheap) prospect. Not quite the next Jeter, but could be awfully close. In ‘25 he will be better (i.e. outhit and outfield) than Correa and $32MM cheaper. Joe Ryan - as mentioned in previous posts, this team, especially this year, does not trade away controllable quality, innings eating starting pitching. Cory is correct - our most likely valuable trade asset (excluding Kepler and Polanco) is realistically Julien.
  10. Nashvilletwin
    Exactly - the FO protected the players that made the most sense and now they have room to manoeuvre and add a few players.
  11. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but no thanks. We are long 27 year oldish types who haven’t really made it, strike out a lot, and have injury histories (Miranda, Larnach, Kiriloff, Gordon, etc.). Sure his glove is probably an upgrade over our other current rostered CF options (Martin, Castro. Gordon) except Buxton (dreaming), but his bat surely is not. Why give the Astros a couple of promising arms for that? Not a fan of that deal.
  12. Nashvilletwin
    Agree. Tender them all. Trade Polanco. Now we are at $110MM. Top of the range budget is $140MM. Use $30MM on starting pitching. Your 13 position players are: Starters (9): Lewis (3B, R), Correa (SS, R), Julien (2B, L), Kiriloff (1B, L), Jeffers (C, R), Wallner (LF, L), Castro, (CF, S), Kepler (RF, L), Buxton (DH, R). Bench (4): Vasquez (C, R), Farmer (IF, R), and two of the following three: Gordon (OF/IF, L), Martin (OF/IF, R) and Larnach (COF, L). If Buxton plays some CF, then all the better, But if not, Castro, Gordon and Martin can cover (in fact, Gordon and Martin could theoretically platoon against lefties and righties if Castro has to cover an infield position). If the $30MM is spent properly on starting pitching, this lineup, healthy, would be projected to win the division and compete for the AL pennant. This is certainly one strategy.
  13. Nashvilletwin
    Gordon’s injury last season was incredibly disappointing after his spark plug season in 2022. Let’s remember his great play through August and into September that season was instrumental in keeping us in the race. Assuming the Twins carry 13 position players on Opening Day and Buxton is the titular DH and Vasquez is the backup catcher, that leaves four spots available for Gordon: starting CF or one of three utility spots. Could he be the starting CF? Probably not. But what if he platooned in that role with the right handed hitting Martin? Castro and Farmer are then your other two bench players. Theoretically, all four of those players - plus Jeffers on days he’s not catching - could be used in the DH role when Buxton needs a break. Hmmm. Cheap solution too. But he (or Martin) would still have to beat out Larnach (assuming Wallner and Kepler are our starting corner outfielders). So, yeah, at the moment before any trades, it seems like Larnach, Martin and Gordon are battling for two bench spots. I’ve written way sillier things on the TD……..
  14. Nashvilletwin
    Agree - one of Gordon or Castro and one of Farmer or Polanco are still with the organization on Opening Day. If I were a betting man, I’d say Farmer (with his ability to play short and $4MM less in salary) stays and Polanco (who with his extra year of control, switch hitting and overall infield versatility means his trade value may be higher) is dealt. If Lee has a good start to the year, Farmer could then be dealt by the deadline. Likewise, Castro probably has the edge on Gordon. But, assuming Castro is kept (which he deserves to be), then Gordon, Larnach and presumably Martin will be battling for two of the final four bench spots (Farmer and Vasquez have the other two). So there still is a path for Gordon, particularly if no new CFer is signed. Boy, I like all four of those players though - and I really like all four at their projected arb $’s.
  15. Nashvilletwin
    100% correct - I stupidly forgot Lewis. Edited above. Thank you.
  16. Nashvilletwin
    Oops. Duh. My bad. Thanks. Edited my comment above. 👍🏻
  17. Nashvilletwin
    Let’s review position players by year. 2024 (2): Martin, Lee (but let’s no forget Larnach, Miranda, Wallner, Julien, plus Lewis and Kiriloff) 2025 (5): Rodriguez, Schobel, Rosario, Severino, Camargo 2026 (4): Jenkins, Keaschall, Miller, Andrade That’s 11 debuting position players (plus 6 already debuted youngsters) over the next 3 seasons who could carve out a starting or supporting role on the roster. I’m sure I’m missing a few as well. Some subset of these players will be the core of the Twins over the second half of this decade. It certainly appears to be a solid foundation. The question is: are there any true superstar players among them? You know, real difference makers who can carry a team if need be and who are likely to make several All Star teams. Our best bets (in order) are probably: Jenkins, Lewis, Rodriguez, Lee, and Julien.
  18. Nashvilletwin
    Noah is probably one of our most underrated prospects. In ‘26 (age 23) he could find himself playing an incredibly important role as an infield defensive specialist and injury fill-in starter for the best position player lineup in the majors. That’s a big job and one of immense value.
  19. Nashvilletwin
    Last season this team was an absolute snore through the All Star break. The team was barely watchable with uninspired play from our team leader (Correa), our high priced free agent catcher (Vasquez), our “I don’t care we paid $11MM for him, how in the world is he getting ABs and innings” FA waste (Gallo), nothing from Buxton, and very little from Kepler and Polanco. Do we all remember this? Then basically a miracle happened. Rocco & Co have an epiphany and start to play the young guys. Lewis and Kiriloff come back from injury, Julien and Wallner get in the lineup regularly, and Joseph becomes the de facto starting catcher. Suddenly, there is a spark and the team has life. They are watchable - more than watchable, they are fun. Kepler gets red hot and Correa starts stepping up his game. We end up running away with the division and win our first playoff series. The point is that the rookies/youngsters led the way. 100% those same young players plus Lee, Martin, Larnach and possibly Miranda need to play a big role in the ‘24 Twins. All of them may not be there day one, but each of them need investment and trust. The primary goal for ‘24 should absolutely be to win the ALCS; however, we should also exit ‘24 with multiple bona fide major leaguers, if not emerging stars, from this list of core prospects. If ‘23 taught us anything it’s that those goals are not mutually exclusive. Btw, the two kids who won the ROYs this season were allowed to play. Their teams invested in them with innings and ABs and the ROI followed nicely.
  20. Nashvilletwin
    The underlying gist of this article is that Larnach has not fulfilled his promise and doesn’t look to be part of the Twins’ plans for the future. Assuming this is correct (and I for one am not there yet), the bigger questions are 1) how/why did this happen and 2) how do we get better at improving the results of our solid minor league prospects transitioning into the bigs? Larnach is not the first. There are many others. Among the current crop, Miranda and, to a lesser extent, Kiriloff are similar examples. How do we make sure Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Martin don’t fall into this category? Why did Steer, CES and Rooker, three of our “less heralded” prospects we traded instead of Miranda and Larnach, have such a successful transition? Sure we’ve had successes over the years, but a high success rate in the transition has to be the hallmark of any small to mid market team hoping to compete. With the batch of young talent transitioning in this year and over the following two seasons, one would think that substantial thought, data analysis, and resources would be devoted to this issue/opportunity.
  21. Nashvilletwin
    Super analysis. Thanks Nick. The second derivative of course is value to the Twins. We are short corner outfielders (actually, all outfielders) and long middle infielders. Normally, you’d like to sell high and Kepler is not getting any higher based on the FA market and his performance. But after Wallner, who is our most dependable corner outfielder? Larnach? Things look fairly bare in the Twins’ outfield cupboard for 2024. Whom do we prefer as a backup infielder - Polanco ($10.5MM) or Farmer ($6.6MM)? One surely should be moved. It’s a tough choice - both are excellent, veteran players. Farmer is better at SS and maybe more durable. Polanco is a switch hitter and could possibly be a better fill in at 1B and DH. The Twins have four marginally expensive veterans who could be moved to raise cash for an additional starter: Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez. One of those is a sure fire starter and all star calibre player - Kepler. For a team with definitive post season aspirations in 2024, Kepler must stay. The other three are (valuable) backups - each could step up to be a quality starter if need be. It’s hard to say which of them should be traded. Tough call. But if we need $15-20MM to grab a starter to replace Gray and the goal is $135MM or so in payroll, then two of them must go.
  22. Nashvilletwin
    Moving Polanco and Vasquez would save $20MM - both players, albeit accomplished, are essentially backups going forward. Take the savings and reinvest as much as possible into pitching, preferably for a starter as close as we can get to Gray’s performance. Don’t forget, we are already saving $11MM by getting rid of Gallo - so they drop to $140MM is already there essentially. Let the kids play.
  23. Nashvilletwin
    You are 100% correct - the likelihood that all of these players pan out is incredibly low. But there are 8-10 of them, and given Correa, Castro, Buxton, and a couple others whom will be sure to join the club (internal or external additions), not all of them need to. But, moving on from Taylor, Solano, Gallo, Polanco, Kepler, and Farmer is going to happen between now and the end of next season at one point or another. That is happening. Not one of those players sees opening day in ‘25 as a Twin. But the good news, IMHO, is that the opportunity exists to replace the current and expected level of production from all of those really, really good ballplayers (other than Gallo, each was a huge contributor to our team this season) with mostly some combination of internal talent. I’ve written this on this site for years - and it’s even more relevant today given the news about lower expected payroll: the ability of a small - mid market team like the Twins to truly be competitive for a championship year in and year out comes down to developing highly performing minor league prospects and continuing that development through their introduction and early tenure in the big leagues. Simply put: we have to have a higher success rate with players like Kiriloff, Wallner, Larnach, Miranda, Julien, Jeffers, Lewis, Lee, etc. etc. etc If I were the Pohlads, figuring that out is where I’d be spending significant resources.
  24. Nashvilletwin
    Sorry, but this team is undergoing a significant transition. In 2024 we will have Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Kiriloff (and even Jeffers could start and go 2/3rds) hopefully moving to full time starting position players. We very well could have Martin and Lee join them. In 2025, Jenkins and Rodriguez and maybe Rosario and others could join that description. That’s 8-10 players who were not in those roles at the beginning of ‘23. Meanwhile, Gallo, Farmer, Solano, Martin, Polanco, Kepler and possibly Buxton (hopefully not) will have already played , or will, in ‘24, play their last game for the Twins. Vasquez may also be in that category. The old guys are moving on and the young guys are replacing them. It’s happening. My point is that we should remain highly competitive throughout - I called for us winning 90 games next year and having a run at an ALCS. That’s 100% doable. But what I’m also saying is that given likely budget constraints (I.e, no top starter coming in via FA) and the influx of talent on the way, I’m not all doom and gloom about this team’s prospects in ‘24 and beyond In fact, I’m incredibly optimistic. Let’s pick up talent where we can, but if the pickings aren’t great, I certainly wouldn’t sell out ‘25-27 to go all in ‘24.
  25. Nashvilletwin
    The doom and gloom and owner bashing today is pathetic. We have very solid owners compared to most MLB franchises. Yes, they are less ego driven than others, but they are very solid in terms of how they run this organization. Overall, and relative to the rest of the league, the Twins are a well managed. Re the team, everyone should just take a deep breath. ‘24 is a transition year (albeit one in which will should still win the division and be competitive for the AL crown) to a fantastic young, cheap core coming in ‘25 and ‘26. Let’s just keep our young talented depth and develop them so they reach their full potential. Let them play. We should 100% not move Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Martin, Wallner, the young catcher, etc. Our outfield in ‘25, including platoon/DH types, very well could be Jenkins, Wallner, Rodriguez Martin, and Rosario - with all of them on league minimum. With Lewis, Lee, Kiriloff, and Julien, the infield is in a similar strong position. Correa and Buxton (hopefully) provide senior leadership. Arms are on the way as well. Move Polanco (and Farmer if comfortable with Lee and Castro) and dumpster dive on a starter or two (Giolito, Bauer, etc.), Keep Kepler until at least the deadline. Buxton, Martin, Castro and Gordon play center. Win 90 games, have some playoff fun, and get ready for a huge open window for the second half of the 2020s!
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