Nashvilletwin

A couple of interesting tidbits from last night’s broadcast: 1. Entering the game the Twins have committed 85 errors - most in the majors and responsible for giving up the third most unearned runs. Simmons, our best fielder, is having his worst defender year and Sano, despite being benched at 1B for Kiriloff for much of the year. has committed more errors than our SSs combined. 2. Sano leads the team in bases loaded at bats with 18. He has two hits (a single and a grand slam) and NINE k’s. 3. With RISP, Donaldson is hitting .260 with 0 homers and 25 RBIs. Just a reminder - Donaldson, Sano and Sano will make over $44MM this season.

That’s actually a really good point. The Twins have committed the most errors this season and have given up the third most unearned runs. (Couple that with our mid 5s era and it’s easy to see why we stunk up the joint this year) Its a completely legitimate question to ask if Rocco is the right guy to drive the ongoing development of a team consisting mostly if young players.

I like our pipeline - solid but probably not full of projectable all stars. I see three position player starters on this list hopefully by 2023: Lewis (ss), Martin (rf) and Miranda (3b). Coupled with Kiriloff (1B) and Larnach (lf) that could be five starters in the field. Rooker, Gordon, and Celestino are possible bench players. Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt are behind the plate. Sign Buxton, keep Arraez and Polanco and there are 14 solid position players with only two making more than essentially league minimum. There are at least a dozen legitimate potential SPs (including Ober and Jax) on the list - we should be able to get at least four of them to give us 5-6 innings of 3 runs or less 75% of the time (i.e. solid #3-4s). A couple more will probably end up in the pen. We’d clearly have the cash to add at least a solid #2 SP type, a shut down pen, and maybe a FA position player in case of injury or non development. That team could win. The Twins FO are positioning us to pursue the classic mid market strategy to make a run. I’m a fan of our future (assuming we resign Buxton).

Jax and Ober may not be the second comings, but I’ll take any league minimum starter who can go 5-6 innings and give up 3 or less earned runs three out of every four starts. If we had four guys like that, we’d be in great shape.

I disagree. Among those 12 names there is potential for several (4-5 at least) to be #2-4s in time. In this day and age a solid #3 gives you 5-6 innings and 3 earned runs. A lot of names on that group can give us that. Give them time to gestate next year. I hope a handful of them though get at least 5–10 starts in the bigs next year.

Nope, I just realize that the Twins are mid market team at best that has probably lost $100MM in cash over the past two seasons. We just can’t expect to sign every FA that you think is the flavour of the day. The key is to build a strong team with a lot of league minimum contract controlled players then add the key FAs that might make a difference. Hopefully more Cruz than Donaldson. Who don’t you like in this lineup? Donaldson (one leg $20+MM) over Miranda? Cave over Martin? Another Simmons at $10MM over Polanco and Arraez playing every day? We have 13 or more potential SP prospects - should we get them some innings next year or sign a few more retread FAs? Are you happy with the pen? Do you disagree that a shut down pen is critical in the modern game of 3-2 counts and 5 inning 90+ pitch starters?

Step one is Buxton. Step two is move Donaldson - he’s a sunk cost - sure it’s cash if we have to pay all or part of his salary, but that ship has sailed and not worth preventing the growth of other players for the future. So after steps one and two, they could certainly still afford a solid #2 SP in 2023 and a SS. However, a shut down pen is where it’s at in the modern game and I’d be willing to let this team gestate for a year, including seeing how Lewis’ 2022 goes, before prioritizing a SS over the pen. But I definitely see your point.

I see your point. But if Lewis is indeed targeted to be our SS in 2023, I’d prefer not to spend the cash on an expensive stop gap. No more $10.5MM for Simmons deals for me.

Polanco at SS in 2022 The starting lineup could be: 1. Martin LF 2. Arraez 2B 3. Polanco SS 4. Buxton CF 5. Kiriloff 1B 6. Sano DH 7. Garver C 8. Kepler RF 9. Miranda 3B Bench: Rooker, Jeffers, Gordon, Larnach Move Donaldson. (I could see moving Kepler too and starting Larnach and have Celestino be on the bench). SPs: Maeda plus Jax, Ober, and the rest of the prospects. See who shines. Use the cash to begin building a lock down pen. This team obviously won’t win it all in 2022, but they should be competitive and will set the table for success in 2023 and beyond.

Correction. I meant Miranda - not Urbina. Oops

The 2023 Twins should be exciting. It all starts with resigning Buxton. Then our core position players will be: Buxton, Kiriloff, Lewis, Martin, Arraez, Polanco, Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt, Urbina, and hopefully Larnach. Maybe Sano and/or Rooker stick around (can either hit 0.250 with 35 HRs and 100 RBIs primarily as a DH?). Donaldson and Kepler get moved. Importantly, other than Buxton, this group as a whole is really inexpensive. The staff by then should have at least three, and likely four, league minimum starters, with several others available when injuries occur. The list of possibilities include: Balazovic, SWR, Duran, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Strotman, Colina, Vallimont, Ober, Jax, and Dobnak. That’s 13 names - who am I missing? In the perfect world, we get 5-6 #2-4s out of this group and several competent relievers. After moving Donaldson and Kepler (and possibly Sano), we then spend the ample cash on hand for a shutdown pen, one lead (#1 or #2) veteran starter (dare I suggest Berrios), and maybe a veteran position player. We’d have the money. This is a team which would have a serious 2-3 year window. Let’s play the rookies in 2022 and get ready for a fun ride multi year ride in 2023.

In 2022 you roll with Maeda and Big Mike plus the youngin’s. All things being equal a staff consisting of 5 solid #2-3s, each averaging about 5-6 innings with an era of about 4 is a winning staff if coupled with a lockdown pen. By 2023, we should have at least 3, maybe 4, starters from among our farm crew who fit that above description. Throw in one additional FA or trade or even Maeda and then spend the money on a lock down pen. You win with a lockdown pen. Get 5-6 innings of 2-4 run ball from your starters and get to the premier pen.

Given a) its very likely the Twins have lost a lot of $ (cash) over the past two seasons and b) this season was such an enormous disappointment that it’s clear this team is not one or two players away from challenging for a WS berth, it’s more than likely that 2022 will be a prep year to try to build a team for another 2-3 year legitimate window, So, this next offseason should be all about roster development for 2023-24/25. A couple of things to do: 1. Resign Buxton. He’s a complete game changer/possible MVP, and should be the veteran center piece of the lineup. 2. Resign Big Mike. Two year deal. He and Kenta lead the rotation while we see which of the 8 or so young guys can be solid SPs in 2023, Btw, both could be moved at the 2022 deadline depending on how the SPs develop. 3. Unless Donaldson is capable of being a Cruz type DH in 2023 (his last year), move him as soon as possible for as much salary relief as you can. 4. Evaluate the SP FA market and move on anyone you think can be a solid #2 or better for multiple years. If so, move on it. But I think you keep your tinder dry until the next off season during which you might actually resign Berrios or similar to lead the staff. 5. Absolutely begin rebuilding the RP staff - it will take two off seasons to add enough names to build the shutdown pen we need. The 2023 bullpen will likely be made up of one or two guys currently on the staff, maybe a couple more in the system, and several FA or trade acquisitions. 6. Evaluate Kepler and Sano (I like Polanco for his bat and position flexibility). One or both of them might need to be moved. I’d like nothing better than to see Sano be a 0.250/40/100 DH for us in 2023, but, if not, he has to go. 7. Retool the coaching staff and that may mean moving on from Rocco. This year’s disappointment is grounded in abysmal fundamentals play - there is no sugar coating that. The key to our future success as a small/mid sized franchise is player development. That premise is especially relevant now heading into a rebuild with a loaded farm. Getting the coaching correct to develop these players is critical. The current staff has not proven that this skill is their strength when it needs to be more than ever.

Once you accept the epiphanies that a) Berrios was going to leave and b) this “window” had closed and a new one needs to be developed, then we won the trade deadline. Every deal we did was a positive, and, in the two cases of the Cruz and Berrios deals, a potentially big positive. Of the four deals we didn’t do (Donaldson, Simmons, Rogers, and Pineda), the biggest disappointment was not moving Donaldson. At his price, he is unlikely to prove any value to the team in 2023, let alone 2022. Simmons, meh, he’s gone next year anyway. Rogers, and Pineda (and even Maeda, Kepler, and possibly Sano) still could have reasonable priced option value to the 2023 club and could be moved next year if that’s not the case. I like this deadline for us. Donaldson is really the only huge millstone around our necks re 2023.

This post is exactly correct in that it identifies the necessary switch in franchise strategy given the poor results this year (this is what small to mid market teams do when the window clearly has closed - that’s just today’s MLB) and where the primary responsibility now resides for the successful execution of that strategy (coaching staff throughout the organization), Think about this possible starting lineup in 2023: 1. Arraez (2B) 2. Martin (LF) 3. Buxton (CF) 4. Kiriloff (1B) 5. Miranda (3B) 6. Polanco (DH) 7. Larnach (RF) 8. Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt (C) 9. Lewis (SS) Bench: Gordon, Rooker, Celestino Obviously, there will be changes to this (i.e., maybe a Kepler or Sano turn things around), but the point is that with Buxton, Polanco and maybe Garver making about $25-30MM and the rest making close to league minimum, these 14 players cost under $40MM. Now think about the pitching staff. We should be able to develop at least three, hopefully 4, solid #2s-#3s out of the ten or so candidates currently in the system. Ideally, another three or four are in the pen. That’s over half of the staff on league minimum - let’s say another $10MM. Ownership will clearly spend $120-140MM to pursue a championship. There is now $70-90MM available to: a) add one or two #1-2 starters, b) build a shutdown pen like we used to have and like the ChiSox are doing, and c) add one or two solid position players/bats. There is a solid strategy here. The three key decisions under team control are to resign Buxton, play the young guys in 2021 and 2022 to see what you’ve got, and make sure you have the right coaching staff. As a mid market franchise, we can’t be blessed to realistically compete every year, We’ve had great runs and the possibility is there for another to develop. I, for one, am looking forward to watching the remainder of this year and next to see the plan develop.

The Twins are stockpiling a lot of solid talent at a very low cost with a possible eye on 2023-4. They went for it in 2020-1, but this year didn’t pan out. It happens and now restocking for another solid window is prudent (particularly for small-mid market teams). But the key is to now resign Buxton. The lineup in 2023 could have Buxton (C) Lewis (SS) Martin (LF) Miranda (3B) Kiriloff (1B), Larnach (RF), Arraez (2B), and probably some combo of 2 of our 3 catchers. Maybe some of Gordon, Rooker, Kepler, Sano, and Polanco are still around. But, with the exception of Buxton, the starting eight fielders are essentially at league minimum. In addition, the starting pitching lineup could be very similar with 3-4 good young starters making league minimum in 2023. This sets up nicely for having the capital available to get a few good veterans in ‘23 or ‘24 to make a good run. Who knows, maybe Berrios is one of them. Lets hope for a few more trades today and resigning Buxton.

Ashbury - you are correct. The Cubs only hit 6 homers in that April 1955 game. My bad. Thanks for pointing that out. But it still is a cool historic completely Twins like event!

As far as I can tell, there have been several instances in which a team has hit seven homers and lost. However, today’s Tigers’ victory over the Twins is the first time EVER that the winning team also did not hit a home run. The Cardinals beat the Cubs in April 1955 12-11 and only hit one dinger, That’s the closest to today’s occurrence. That’s what my research shows at least....

I’m wondering in the history of MLB if a team has ever hit seven home runs in a game and lost to a team that hit zero? Can’t be many times that has happened.

First time post. Long, long time Twins fan. Re Buxton, 5/70 plus $2mm for every 10 games played above 100. So that’s $100MM over 5 years if 130 games played/year, with the chance to go to $26MM in any year he plays 160 games. Add in $2MM for MVP, $500k for top 2/3, $250k for top 4/5, and $500k for All Star starter, $250k for sub. This is a fair deal to both sides. Twins take injury risk up to $14MM/year. If Buxton plays 50-100 games/year, he is well worth that. Twins pay up for Buxton being on the field. Buxton gets his $100MM deal if he plays 81% of the games each year. Buxton should be a priority. He is a potential game changer every time he plays.