Nashvilletwin

Should have both…..lol

Re position players, we have at least four: Lewis, Kiriloff, Jeffers and Julien. Might count Correa too I guess.

Twins are 3-10 in his starts since May 1. But you’re 100% correct. Gray has done his job. No knock on him. He gives it his all as well. Nothing but respect. My point is more of the overall strategy of foregoing the potential upside to chase a more immediate goal. Certainly the strategy has merit; it just simply has not worked out on an overall basis for the current regime. With overall better performance by the team, that trade could have been viewed as an incredible deal. Hindsight is 20-20. But at this exact moment - essentially 1.5 seasons of ball since that trade - I’d take Steer, CES and Petty over Mahle and Gray. I get it - you pay your money and you take your chances. But the results are still the results and the possible huge long term future asset of Petty was lost without the required overall success it should have returned.

Just read that the Twins are an astonishing 3-10 in Gray starts since May 1. I wonder where Chase Petty is today….

If we cannot win a playoff series, let alone a playoff game, over our two years with Gray, the Petty trade may need to be added to the annals of all time Falvey screw ups. And with Lewis continually hurt, two years of Gray is the most production Falvey & Co have produced out of their first round picks. The record to date in Round One is not great. Let’s just hope they don’t screw up Lee and Jenkins

Not very impressed with Rocco’s choice on how to reintroduce Wallner to the big leagues: call him up, sit him for three straight games, then feed him to the wolves by having him PH cold late against their flamethrower and then putting him in LF. What a great way to manage your young players. And fans wonder why our producing prospects can’t transition to the majors upon being called up. Geez, if that’s how Rocco intends to use him, he’d be better off in the St. Paul. Honestly, assuming Rocco and Co. stay, they should just trade Wallner, and probably Larnach too; neither is being considered as a core OFer of the future.

Lot of truth in this. Personally, I have the under on his 2nd half performance vs. his first. Do the Twins ever sell high? It’s really not their MO (other than Arraez). Regardless, the Twins are in it to make the playoffs where, yes, anything can happen. Besides, if Falvey, Rocco and Co. truly need a playoff win to keep their jobs, there is no chance they move Gray. The incentives for what is best for the future of the organization and what’s best for current mgmt are not 100% aligned. Gray stays. They will/should only trade Gray if they receive a blow away offer - i.e. a legitimate projectable starting position player (preferably a right handed CFer if we are getting super specific) for at worst a late ‘24 arrival. But that’s not going to happen.

Julien not in the lineup again today. The A’s started three lefties, and Julien doesn’t see the field unless he pinch hits (which gets less likely late in tight games due to his defensive acumen). Meanwhile, Kepler is still starting today. Getting Julien ABs when the switch hitting Polanco comes back will not be a priority. They will probably send him down, let him hit everyday. Of course, that means Martin has to find a new position at AAA too. They should just let the young guys play…..

Consider the following: 1. Currently, Julien really only plays vs. RHers. According to our current manager, he is not worthy of being an everyday player, but more of a platooner. 2. Rocco favours the higher-priced underperforming vets (Kepler, Gallo) over the possibly better performing up-and-comers who need ABs (Larnach, Wallner). We should not expect the thinking to differ with Julien vs. Polanco (or Farmer, Solano, or Castro, for that matter). So, when Polanco returns, Julien likely catches an Uber over the river (that’s if he doesn’t get traded, lol).

My fellow TDers, the entire trade deadline discussion is moot. It presumes we a) have sufficient assets to trade for b) a player or two who can really move the dial. Here is the sad truth: other than Gray, we do not have a single tradable asset that would bring back a true dial mover. Even a package of players who might be considered to be traded would not bring back much. Who are the other candidates: Lewis, Lee, ERod, or Jenkins - not gonna happen. Wallner, Larnach, Julien - they can’t even beat out Kepler, Gallo, Farmer, Castro or Solano according to our FO; how much could they bring back? Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Vasquez - poor play, injury and/or contract. Correa, Buxton - we could only wish. Jeffers, Kiriloff - our core part of our next young core. All other Twins position players or prospects - not enough value in any of them. Ryan, Lopez, Ober - the core staff for many years to come. Maeda - not very good and injury risk. Winder, Varland - critical 2023 depth, decent option value going forward, but not a lot of standalone value. Festa, Raya, Soto - possible, if we were “one player away”, but we aren’t, so not yet. All the rest of our pitchers except Jax and Stewart - no value. Let’s just take the FO’s comments at face value - this will (thankfully) be a boring trade deadline. We are not good enough to go all in by trading our top prospects and we aren’t deep enough in true prospects or performing major leaguers to make any significant moves.

Had to watch the A’s broadcast last night. A couple of things of note: 1. The A’s started two players making their MLB debuts in the same game for the sixth time in their history - and the first time ever not in April or September (that tells you a bit about the A’s current situation). 2. The A’s broadcasters hate the new M logo and couldn’t fathom why the Twins moved on from the iconic TC. Nice win - can’t sweep without winning game one.

Thanks for this Matt. Overall, our prospect list is starting to look a little light. Lee should be a solid major leaguer, ERod has a high beta, Jenkins is a long way off, and Wallner isn’t good enough in the eyes of our FO to beat out even the anaemic Kepler or Gallo (yikes!). After those four, it’s not easy to see much reliably projectable above average major league talent. Of course, we are leaving off Larnach, Miranda and Celestino, but it’s not clear they can even clear that description. Maybe someone will surprise us. Btw, whom do you favor as our best bets for CFer of the future? Jenkins, Martin, ERod, Celestino, Gordon, other? Pitching doesn’t seem much better. Excluding Winder and Varland (whom you didn’t list, maybe because they’ve graduated), our best starter options seem a long way off. SWR is fifth and he is not providing much comfort. Maybe I’m just a little gloomy, but, yeah, overall it seems the cupboard is a bit bare.

Couldn’t agree more. Its possible we could pick up some decent reliever help or a #5 starter - either with maybe an additional year of control - from a non contending team for both of them. Heck, we got Mahle for Steer and CES - theoretically, we should be able to do nearly as well as that deal, right? Why not pull that trigger - their value is just wasting away down there in AAA with 27 and 26 years of age staring them in the face next year. The trade could make everybody happy: the FO doesn’t have to listen to people carp about it and they can get kudos for doing a deal; Larnach and Wallner are ecstatic that they get a real chance and are out of this organization; and we fans get a new FO and manager when the trade is a disaster, Kepler and Gallo keep up their poor hitting and the team misses the playoffs. Win-win-win. All facetiousness aside: the FO should do the right thing and live with their decision to keep Kepler and Gallo at the expense of Larnach and Wallner: trade the two prospects or play them!

Generally speaking you are correct. There are certainly instances when the “winner” believes it can do more with the acquired asset than others and ideally that is at a “price” that is lower than the value ultimately extracted. However, I’d argue in these two cases the Twins’ FO was probably way more of an outlier than in most cases. Thus, the “Winner’s Curse” is even more pronounced. Interestingly, it’s probably the same situation for the Correa signing as well.

Yes, of course you are correct. I was just being a bit facetious. The correct characterisation is that the Twins’ FO was the high “bidder” on both. Someone would have very likely traded something for Kepler and someone probably would have signed Gallo for some amount.

100% correct. Those two are just what a lot of us, and a lot of front office types across the league given no one was willing to trade for Kepler or sign Gallo. thought they’d be.

I think most of us are missing the most important point right in front of our noses: if Larnach and Wallner are not our starting LFer and RFer within the next two weeks, this FO clearly does not believe they are our answers in those two positions for the future. Other than the FO’s embarrassment, there literally can be no other reason. If this is the case, the correct answer is to trade Larnach and Wallner. They at least have some trade value vs. Kepler and Gallo who have zippo. Btw, Larnach and Wallner will thank the FO - they both deserve a crack at an every day spot in a major league lineup and they are not getting younger.

Sounds like a fine young man. Stay good, We will be rooting for your success.

Our best trade piece right now is Sonny. Maybe we trade him and insert Dallas for the remainder of the year.

Boy, the plethora of comments under that Strib article are pretty much universally brutal. Twins fans more broadly seem bored, disappointed and looking for changes with this team. But it also sounds like they care - they want to see their home team succeed. We shall see how long it takes for the Nephew to show his mettle.

Sorry, but some TDers are just more bottom line focused. This FO and managerial staff have been a disaster. Seven years and not a single playoff series win, let alone a single playoff game victory, is simply unacceptable. Can there be any other interpretation? Honestly, can there be? Regardless of winning the hapless AL Central from time to time, or one incredibly good hitting season from the Bomba Squad, or rebuilding our pitching staff (at great cost as insightfully pointed out above in a previous post on this thread), the overall goal is to win in the playoffs. Despite having an ownership group willing to spend and a minor league system producing top prospects (who somehow vanish upon making it to Target Field), this regime has been unable to accomplish that at all. And the W-L results this year to date - as have been pointed out in excruciating detail in other posts - are incredibly disappointing. A game under 0.500, a sizable losing record against everyone other than KC, a 1/2 game behind the “rebuilding” Guardians, and with the starting staff we have is the definition of incredible underperformance. Besides all of that, the team is a snore to watch - filled with one and done players and listless high priced stars all intent on breaking the league record for strikeouts by a team in a season. How can any reasonable person who has ever owned or managed a business of any type think that these results merit commendation, let alone ongoing employment? The results are right in front of us and the sample size is more than sufficient. This franchise has incredible potential. It has all the necessary inherent elements (i.e. ownership, fan base, facilities, minor league system, scouting, etc.) to be the best small/mid-market team in MLB able to truly compete for pennants year in and year out. Does it have the FO and big league managerial staff? Performance to date over seven years would indicate no.

In a lot of years, he’d be the overall first pick. Glad the FO took the BPA.

Reading between the lines, the real point of this article seems to be the inability of our system to complete the transition of young prospects into true major leaguers fulfilling their ultimate potential. For example, no one could realistically argue that Steer was a better prospect than Miranda based on minor league production, Yet, somehow, the Reds turned Steer into an above average major league 3rd baseman, while Miranda continues to struggle to even be in the bigs. Who bears responsibility for that? Some fellow TDers might claim that sometimes prospects just “figure it out” - Steer may certainly be an example of that. However, there does appear to be a pattern of players under this regime who do not either successfully make the transition from St. Paul to Target Field, or once here, reach their potential. Let’s look at the list: Kepler (stagnated and declined), Sano (see Kepler), Kiriloff (sorry, he’s not yet solidified nor even close yet to what might have been expected based on his minor league performance), Larnach, Rooker (do we care if he’s cooled off; he’s playing in the ASG for Pete’s sake) Miranda, Gordon, Lewis (yes, injuries, but it is what it is), and even Buxton (see Lewis) Wallner and Celestino could eventually make this list too. Polanco, Arraez and Jeffers are the best examples of position players who have or are fulfilling their potential as big leaguers. It wasn’t the trade; more likely it’s our system managing the transition of prospects to the bigs and their continued growth. For a small to mid market team like the Twins, it’s a disaster if that is not a strength and it should be one of the top responsibilities/priorities of the coaching staff.

I’ve been pretty vocal on the TD about trading anyone who is not going to be part of the future - i.e. the 2024 and beyond Twins. Those comments have been pretty focused on current Twins: Gallo, Kepler, Solano, Taylor, even Polanco and Castro (I’ve been pretty silent about Gray and/or Maeda, but theoretically they would be on the list). However, now I’m starting to expand my thinking to include prospects that are very likely not part of the future in the minds of this FO. This list includes Wallner, Larnach, Julien, Miranda, and probably Celestino and Martin. Maybe even SWR, Varland and Winder. It’s quite possible that only Kiriloff, Lewis, Lee and Ober will be the youngsters to join Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Lopez and Jeffers as the next core. I don’t agree with the strategy, but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that this FO trades some of these prospects for a couple of rest-of-season veteran rentals in a bid to see what kind of run this starting staff can achieve. It’s quite possible it’s playoff wins or bust for this FO and they might be willing to go all in to prove their starting pitching strategy for 2023 was the right call and save their jobs.

Two of the best pitched games in a pretty long time for the Twins from Ryan and Lopez. Well done! Fun to watch too. The FO has built a solid starting staff - no doubt about it. We shall see if the starters can continue to carry this team as they have pretty much done all year thus far. It’s a strategy - let’s hope it works.