Nashvilletwin

Agree 100%. The FO is done in CF and the Buxton horse will be ridden to start the year (knock on wood). TBH, I’m getting more and more comfortable if no big trades happen and we break camp with our starting nine being Buxton (CF), Wallner (LF), Kepler (RF), Lewis (3B), Correa (SS), Julien (2B), Kiriloff (1B), Jeffers (C) and Polanco (DH). Our bench could very well be Farmer (IF), Castro (OF), Vasquez (C) plus one of Martin, Gordon, Miranda, or Larnach (acknowledging that Martin and Gordon have the most positional flexibility). Those 13 position players will be the best lineup in the AL Central by a good margin. And if Buxton goes down (or anyone for that matter) we have the depth to deal with it. If we end up running out the clock on Kepler, Polanco and Farmer, it’s ok as their cost is actually lower than their value and no other team seems prepared to pony up someone we need/want in return (i.e. MLB ready/proven starting or relief pitching). And next year we will have reinforcements (Lee and Rodriguez at least) on the way with more salary flexibility as well. Let’s go win this year! We still need starting pitching depth to handle probably 25+ starts over the course of the year. If we hold our nose could we stomach Trevor Bauer on a cheap one year deal? Depending on how that or someone else works out, Varland could also be our swing man at various times during the year (so we kinda pick up relief help as well). Only three weeks until pitchers and catchers report!!!

Throw in three really good rookies from last year (Lewis, Julien, and Wallner) plus a top 10 MLB young catcher (Jeffers), by 2026 we potentially have seven cheap (league minimum or arbitration) controllable young stars to go alongside Correa in the field. We also have plenty of additional young talent to add in around the edges. Let’s hope the FO lets this roster gestate.

Let’s not forget Rodriguez as a starting (corner) outfielder possibility in 2025 (or late 2024 for that matter). The point being, even though Walker is the next Roy Hobbs, there is no reason to push him too fast. His total development as a ballplayer - physically, mentally and in terms of baseball education - is what the Twins should be looking to attain. Give the lad only the rope he can handle and be patient. 2026 would be just fine for a late season debut, if even that isn’t too fast.

Three possibilities IMHO: 1. Given Buxton’s injury risk and the unproven/not so incredible CF alternatives (i.e. Castro, Martin, Gordon and Kiersey), having another option to throw at the wall if necessary to see what sticks isn’t stupid per se. 2. One never knows if one or more of our existing CF backup options might be on the move with Polanco or Kepler or even Vasquez. This might be a proactive manoeuvre to fill a spot that might suddenly open up. 3. Great September call up option to be on the roster for our WS push.

So edited with attribution!

Nice catch on Carlton! I will edit the above.

Assumptions for the Twins all-time starting nine (plus starting pitcher) comprised only of HOFers: A. If they played on the Twins or Senators at any time and are in the HOF, they are eligible (did those Twins/Senators years not count toward their HOF stats/resume? Of course they did). B. They had to have played the position as a regular starter for some period of time (outfield is outfield) Here is our starting batting order/lineup: 1. Rod Carew 2B* 2. Tony Oliva RF (per Stringer Bell) 3. Harmon Killebrew 3B 4. Jim Thome 1B* 5. David Ortiz DH* 6. Kirby Puckett CF* 7. Joe Mauer C* 8. Dave Winfield LF (per Stringer Bell)* 9. Paul Molitor SS* Starting Pitcher: Walter Johnson*. If you are hung up on no Senators, insert Steve Carlton* (thanks Stringer Bell!) Bert Blyleven, Jim Kaat or Jack Morris (that is a darn good starting five). That team would win a fair share of its games against similarly constructed teams from other franchises. Say what you might, but we have been pretty darn blessed as Twins fans since the arrival in Minnesota. * indicates elected on the first ballot (that’s seven our our starting nine plus two pitchers).

The Astros get it: combine making it through five or six innings giving up 3 or less runs with a complete shutdown bullpen and you have a recipe for lots of wins. Think about it. What percentage of games will a team win giving up three or fewer runs? A lot. How much do “ace” relievers cost vs. “ace” starters? A lot less. How many starters are out there who can deliver 5-6 innings per start allowing up to three runs (i.e. an average ERA over 4,50). A lot, and a starter fitting that description is not very expensive. So, for any team, but certainly one on more of a fixed budget, the model of getting one - two top starters (i.e. expensive) with three - four #4 types (i.e. cheap) to go along with three to four top “closer” type bullpen arms (i.e. moderately expensive) is certainly a possible strategy for success. If we had our choice between an expensive #2 starter (many TDers are clamouring for Snell or Montgomery) or Pressly, Hader and Abreu, which makes the most sense? Houston is well run.

Agree with article - Ober should be seen, until proven otherwise, as a legit, young, cheap, controllable #2-3 starter. Just like what many TDers want to acquire in a trade for Lee, Julien, Rodriguez, or even Lewis. Ryan is pretty much the same as Ober. Paddack, for the innings he might throw this year, should be considered as such as well. Heck, even Varland might be Ober a year ago. With a couple of potential starters among our top prospects joining the possible rotation in ‘25, it could be that the FO wants to see how this young staff gestates before pulling the trigger on trading our top position player prospects. Without a big influx of cash from a new TV deal (or less likely it now seems, but still possible, a trade of Polanco and or Kepler), we should anticipate a flyer “prove it” type deal with one or more fallen angel type starters at best before spring training starts.

You are not wrong - you are correct. While success in football inevitably comes down to who wins at the line of scrimmage, success in baseball, particularly in the modern era of 5-6 inning starters, comes down to being able to get through 5 or 6 innings giving up three runs or less and then having a shut down pen. Duran is a huge, almost irreplaceable part of our attempts to have a shut down pen. Get Varland or someone else to get us through six with three earned runs against (very middling 4.50 era). But getting those last nine outs is where teams win or lose championships. I’d bet we win 80%+ of the games we play giving up three runs through six and no runs from the seventh on. Build the pen - keep Duran there.

It’s clear you are big fan of Correa. As you should be, because he’s really good. At the end of the day, all TDers are probably big fans as well. And we are all cheering hard for him. Really hard. And, yes, maybe someday he will vie for the HOF. But just keeping things a bit real: A. To date, has Correa underperformed, outperformed, or performed more or less to expectations as a Twin? B. Has that performance to date been better, worse, or about commensurate with the perceived value of his contract? C. Of course, no one knows what the future holds, but at the moment, does the “market” believe the Twins are underwater, level or above water as it relates to the remaining obligations of Correa’s contract. D. What specifically provides hope that Correa’s performance will improve over the next five years? E. What concerns are there that his performance might diminish? Objectively, IMO (as if anyone cares): A. Slightly underperformed. B. Slightly worse. C. Underwater - not sure any team would sign him now per the remaining terms of his deal (but we probably expected some of that when we signed him anyway). D. He’s still young, has had solid lengthy periods of outperformance, he’s a pro and very talented, he’s had better years so he’s capable, regression to the mean, he gets healthier, the young guys inspire/push him, he embraces the leadership role. E. He’s not getting younger, his recent injury issues, overall downward trend. There’s more to like about his upside than not. We’d all like to see five great years, and yes, maybe even legitimate HOF consideration. But he probably hasn’t shown to this point all of what the Twins/we had hoped to be getting. We are all invested in seeing that change a bit more for the positive because he’s a really important/critical part of this team and its success.

I agree. Correa is really good and super fun to watch. I love it when he shows off his arm to first base. Having said that, given the particular financial characteristics of our franchise, the opportunity cost of each player on the team is a real thing (less so for many other franchises). Some of those costs are big and some small. Correa’s is our largest, which is not necessarily a bad thing, of course. At the moment though, the liability associated with Correa (i.e. his remaining contract) does not appear to match up with the asset he represents/that its funding (i.e. his projected output over the remaining life of that liability/contract). No biggie per se; every team has those mismatch situations. Ideally, you have more positives than negatives and, if you have a negative, it’s not your associated with your biggest liability. We would all be ecstatic to see Correa make the HOF. But even if he doesn’t, we will be rooting hard for him to have a couple of great years going forward to make that contract (i.e. his opportunity cost) pay off handsomely for the Twins.

Well, you will get to see Mauer inducted - maybe/probably this year. But if you can hang on another twenty or so years, I think there’s a good chance you will see another Twin make it in. I’m betting on one of our young guys coming up soon. It’s just a feeling I have. Correa is good too, in fact really good, but he is not going to make it. Age, lack of numbers and trash can banging will be hard to overcome.

Which do you value more: the colossal upside of a Rodriguez or the stable certainty of a Lee? The answer is clearly both. Ted recently listed his top 15 prospects on another post. Among them were six pitchers, including two, Raya and Festa, who are in the top 5 and are both projected to make their Twins debuts no later than 2025. What if our FO thinks that along with Lopez as our clear #1, we actually have a strong stable of contenders to be legit #2-3s for several years to come? Ober, Ryan, Varland, Paddock, Raya and Festa (plus a few others) could easily develop into a very deep, talented, and relatively cheap starting staff with Lopez. With the Twins salary constraints, young controllable potential stars are gold. The Twins have Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Jeffers and Julien (and possibly Martin and the underrated Wallner) as cheap multi year assets who project anywhere from solid, above average MLB regulars to all star potential to MVP candidates. Those are up to eight position players (and there are some others) - an entire lineup in the field outside of the pitcher. Maybe, just maybe, our FO thinks the best path is to pretty much stay the course in 2024 (which still projects to winning the division and seeing where things fall after that) while letting both our pitching and position player prospects gestate in anticipation of entering a true multi-season open window that fits neatly into our budget constraints. Patience can be a virtue. It is reasonable to keep both Lee and Rodriguez for now as they both have future all star potential and our near term controllable legit #2 and #3 starters may already be in the system.

Yeah, there’s no place for a player like Arraez on the Twins. I mean, we’d much rather have Kiriloff at 1B. And having a 0.400 OBP is not good enough to compete with our current DH candidates. Besides, he strikes out way less often than what we expect from our hitters. Even though we wouldn’t expect him to play 2B, even as a temporary fill in he’d be way too much of a liability to merit having his bat in the lineup at all. Besides, he’s really only a platoon player at this point. The fact that the fans love him doesn’t matter at all as well. We really should have a sarcasm font on the TD. If we could acquire Arraez for a couple of ok prospects (think Schobel types) and throw in one or two Miranda or Larnach types, we should do it in a nanosecond. Polanco or Arraez? Please, it’s not even close - on virtually every metric. Kiriloff vs. Arraez? Are you kidding? Just on likely innings to be played, Arraez might play more than both of them combined. Neither can hold his jock at the plate. Imagine Julien and Arraez leading off against a right handed starter - the pitcher might be looking at his 21st pitch and at least one man on base before getting to our #3 hitter. Also, Arraez is a spark plug. He is an igniter. He shows up in Miami and the Marlins make the playoffs. No correlation there. I get it’s not going to happen But to pretend he is not a fit for this team, or there’s no room for him as a Twin, or he’s not a good enough hitter or fielder to play 1B and DH instead of Kiriloff (or Polanco or anyone else we currently are contemplating for those roles) is ridiculous.

You, like me, must be one of the TDers who think Arraez is really good. Given how last year around this time a fair number of us could only talk about how bad his knees are, he couldn’t play 2B because he’s such a liability, he has no power so 1B was out, as a singles hitter he was I’ll suited to just being a dh and besides Buxton needed those ABs, etc. etc., I just figured 3x$12 would be plenty, if not generous. Lol Guess I was wrong - Arraez is actually good and valued. Another example of the age old game of “Which Is It” on the TD. Of course, that’s why the TD is so much fun.

Offer him a 3x$12MM extension. Trade Kepler and Polanco for pitching prospects. Net cost over three years is essentially zero. Kepler and Polanco will be gone anyway - probably no later than the trade deadline anyway but certainly by next year.

Seriously: 1. Arraez L (DH) 2. Lee SW (2B) 3. Julien L (1B) 4. Lewis R (3B) 5. Kepler L (RF) 6. Buxton R (CF) 7. Wallner L (LF) 8. Jeffers R (C) 9. Correa R (SS) Bench: Vasquez plus three of Castro, Kiriloff, Martin, Farmer, Gordon, Larnach, and Miranda. Trade Polanco. Or keep Polanco until Lee is ready and have Polanco be in the 1B/2B/DH interchange with Arraez and Julien. In this case, we could trade Kepler and move Wallner to RF and play Kiriloff in LF. This would be one fun lineup to watch - I wouldn’t leave the TV for any Twins AB.

Wait a second. Is it possible we could first get Lopez and then also get Arraez back? Is our FO playing some sort of 3D chess that we’ve never seen before? Does the FO envision a future 2B, 1B, DH interchangeable combination of Lee, Julien and Arraez batting in the first three spots in the order? And by moving either Kepler or Polanco (let alone both) we could easily afford to get Arraez back? And given the Marlins salary issues, we could probably pick Arraez back up for a couple of mid level prospects? Oh, and does Arraez love it in Minnesota and do Twins fans love Arraez? Alas, we could only dream…

Many were on board in real time And many of us weren’t. That’s ok though - I hated the Arraez - Lopez deal and that worked out. Very rarely are we always right - just like the FO.

No need to defend yourself. Standing pat for the most part, if not completely, is certainly an option. You have that correct. We as a fan base are clamouring for the “Gray Replacement”. Well, we don’t have cash to get that done through FA and it’s very possible the FO likes our top prospect capital enough on the mound that they don’t feel like trading our top prospects in the field. What if they think the team is in a strong enough position this season (and, yes, that may even include to a large degree keeping Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and Vasquez) to win the division and to see what happens in the post season? In fact, so much so they aren’t willing to move Lee, Julien or Lewis to sacrifice what could be a huge open window starting in 2025 when these prospects start hitting and our rotation could be stellar with whom we already have in the system. Just maybe the FO is willing to “sacrifice” some upside this year to let their cheaper, longer term open window roster gestate for a season. We as fans tend to always look at just the season ahead of us as opposed to letting the better tasting cake bake a bit longer. Patience is sometimes the best course - and it could the overall strategy the FO has mapped out more or less for this season. And yes, it’s a reasonable strategy.

Agree 100%. He should be a strong defender. My original comment was a bit sarcastic (I apologise for that - not very Minnesota Nice of me) as a number of posters yesterday concurred with the opposite sentiment. I’m looking forward to seeing Lee in a Twins uniform for many years to come.

“He’s a strong fielder no matter where the Twins put him, and while the ceiling may not be an MVP talent, he will be a regular for a long time.” On a thread yesterday, there seemed to be much agreement (not from me) that Lee would never amount to much as a fielding SS (certainly not even close to as strong as our 20th ranked fielding SS in 2023). Is the thought that “no matter where the Twins put him” refers only to 3B, 2B, 1B and/or corner OF? I’m assuming no one thinks C or CF are really options. For the record, I agree with the author’s assessment - Lee is going to be a solid regular for many years with All Star potential and that includes at SS if and when that time comes. I’ll take Lee in terms of number of future All Star appearances vs. our current SS (and for the record, I really, really like our current SS - he’s a great baseball player).

The gist of Nick’s post was about replacing quality players. This year the player we would most like to replace is Gray. We are not trading Correa - for several reasons. However, fact of the matter is that the Twins for whatever reason (TV revs, Pohlad penury, etc.) are capital constrained. We signed Correa to a huge deal north of $30MM per year. It’s been suggested in the thread that Correa is a “superstar” SS. I disagree. I think Correa is an incredibly gifted ballplayer. But based on his performance, both in the field and at the plate, I just don’t see him as a “superstar” worthy of $30MM. I dare say there isn’t much press about what a screaming deal we have with Correa. There just isn’t. The marketplace speaks and there probably isn’t a single TDer who believes another team would sign Correa to the same deal now. It’s also been suggested that Lee is a marginal MLB SS prospect. I again disagree. He’s a consensus top 20 prospect. Will he ever be as gifted in the field or at the plate as Correa has been or might be in the future? We don’t know that now - no matter what people write. Remember the scene from Moneyball when Billy Beane tells David Justice that the A’s are paying him for the ballplayer he is today - not what he was. We need to compare five years of Correa AT HIS COST to five years of Lee AT HIS COST. Is there $145MM of added value to the capital constrained Twins from Correa over Lee? There absolutely is a decent probability that within a couple of years Lee is a better producer in the field and at the plate than Correa - for 1/30th the cost. So, if our payroll is fixed would you rather have a) 5 more years of Correa plus no replacement for Gray; b) Correa plus a controllable cheap projectable starter (remember our payroll is fixed) acquired by trading Lee; or c) Farmer and Lee at SS this season plus a top reliable FA pitcher (Snell?). For the future of this team, I’d take c first. And for my fellow TDers who don’t think there is much difference between a top tier free agent starter and Louie Varland (whom I love btw), then the thinking must be there is no reason to replace Gray anyway - we already have his replacement in Varland. i wish things were different and that our favorite team had unlimited payroll like the Dodgers, Yankees and Mets. But we don’t. That’s the reality. And given that reality, the question of production per dollar is paramount to how our roster is constructed. I think most of our fellow TDers understand that. So my point about Correa was simply to compare different roster construction possibilities given very definitive payroll constraints. But it’s moot - he’s not going anywhere.

Who cares? Is that arm strength or a little softer glove worth $30MM? Could be if you’re the Dodgers. It isn’t IMHO if you’re Twins. Just my opinion.