Nashvilletwin

Actually, Larnach may find himself on the trade block as the 40 man gets tight. Having said that, he’d probably welcome that in order to get those 450 ABs miracleb suggested. He wants, and deserves, a bigger chance to prove himself.

It’s all about the pen - depth and quality. This is another solid move to attempt to establish a day-in and day-out shutdown relief corps. But, yes, the 40 man becomes an issue. The Twins have put a lot of effort into Balazovic and Gordon over the years and both are out of options. I just can’t see them wanting to give them up for nothing (neither would sneak through waivers). Is a trade of one or both for a lotto pick on the horizon? Perhaps. But at the moment I’m leaning toward both getting the chance to compete in spring training for a spot. Who knows, maybe they increase their value over the preseason if they don’t earn a big league role.

Crazy, but I was just thinking of this the other day when we had the Soler debate. My point then was if we inked Soler to a two year deal, we’d have a hedge on Kepler to either trade at this year’s deadline or lose in free agency in ‘25. We’d at least have a corner outfielder to pair with Wallner if we decided to move on from Kep. Soler did not happen. So if Kepler leaves, what is our current corner outfield depth for ‘25? Rodriguez, Larnach, or Rosario? Maybe Martin in left field (he may be our hedge in CF if Buxton is not healthy). The FO will wait and see how the prospects fair in ‘24 before reupping Max. But Max signing an extension is not the zero probability event a lot of us thought heading into the off-season. Max not being traded is another reason to think that the FO views an extension as a possibility as well. In fact, so much so, that may be a reason they didn’t sign Soler. Think about it - you could have Soler locked in for a minimum of $15MM per for two years (he wants 3x$15MM) or a 31 year old Max for the same $30MM total outlay, but with an option on the $20MM second year. If you can only have one or the other, you stick with Max.

Alcala is listed as the eighth reliever. That would mean Balazovic, who is out of options, is released or traded. It could be Balazovic gets first shot at the last bullpen slot. Of course Varland really has first dibs on that spot, but it’s assumed he stays stretched out in St. Paul waiting for his eventual call up. Having said that, who’s to say a double starter game every fifth start - pairing DeSclafani and Varland - isn’t the best way to limit their innings and save the pen. Gordon gets the last position player spot because he’s out of options and the Twins will likely give him a chance to replicate 2022. So, unless things change via injury, additions, or some incredibly hot spring from Martin, Larnach or Miranda, it looks like that last bullpen slot is the only real battle. Also, this lineup, other than losing Gray, will be way more fun to watch than last year’s. Bring on spring training!

We need 162 starts. We have 6 starters. Let’s assume relatively good health (only one starter is injured at any time) and each starter not named Lopez misses a start every six or seven starts to stay fresh when everyone is healthy. So López gets 32 starts, leaving 130 starts for the other 5 or 26 starts per guy. If they each average 5-6 innings per start, that’s about 130-150 innings. As the saying goes: “We’re going to need a bigger boat.” I have a hard time seeing any of Paddock, DeSclafani, Varland or even Ober reaching 150 innings. If those four can average 23 starts and about 115-120 innings, we will need a dozen or so starts from Festa, SWR, Widner, bullpen starts and/or Dobnak. Not a disaster per se, but highly likely we will need those starts. If we can get anything close to 25 starts, 130 innings, and a 4.30 era out of DeSclafani, he will be a huge success for the money we are paying him.

Re Castro - he’s the primary CF sub and probably LF as well (if Kepler needs a break, Wallner will shift to RF). So Castro is going to get plenty of innings in the OF, inclusive of late inning PH for Wallner or Kepler against lefties. With that role, Farmer still on the team and with another infielder just added (Santana), I do not see many innings in the IF for Castro. He’s the fourth outfielder and will probably get into nearly every game in some fashion in that role. Gordon gets the fewest innings, mostly in the OF when Castro is in for Buxton and Kepler or Wallner need spelling or late inning pinch running as well. But, you are correct, probably not many innings in the IF unless via that pinch running role.

Current 13 position player lineup heading into spring training: Infield (6): Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Santana, Farmer Outfield (4): Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Castro Catcher (2): Jeffers, Vasquez Super Utility (1): Gordon First Injury Replacement Call-Ups (6): Martin, Miranda, Larnach, Severino, Keirsey and Camargo (catcher). It will depend on who is hot and who gets hurt. Gordon does not need to be released quite yet. That, my friends, is what the FO has in mind for your ‘25 Minnesota Twins - those 19 players. And we will probably need all of them at some point. Personally, I like it and, as a position player lineup, it should be favored to win the AL Central and compete in the playoffs. Now, if we added Soler……

This and your next post are good takes. This is a solid floor addition if the production vs. lefties shows up. If not, and the young guys (Miranda, Severino, and even Lee could impact 1B via a Julien move) get hot, then hopefully the FO has the fortitude to make the tough call. But it doesn’t appear to be a higher ceiling move for which some of us might have hoped.

To paraphrase Lloyd Bentsen: “I watched Nelson Cruz, I cheered for Nelson Cruz, and you sir, Mr. Santana, are no Nelson Cruz”. So let’s hit pause on the Cruz comparisons. No one should expect that type of production/result from this signing. On the other hand, he’s probably no Joey Gallo either - less expensive, can hit from the right side of the plate, and should strike out less. Seriously, a lot of great comments on the TD today on both sides of the fence, basically supporting that the signing is more or less a “meh” addition. Personally, and I know I’m in the minority in this, but I felt our bigger hole was a power RH outfield bat. I was hopeful that, with Lee on the way and someone like Soler added to the OF, a platoon of Julien and Kiriloff at 1B and Wallner and Kepler in RF against lefties made more sense. But Lee is just not proven enough to put enough faith in that strategy - thus the need to bolster first with a better RH bat. I was hoping for more with the Polanco savings and Bally visibility. DH is now most certainly going to be a “rotating/ keep fresh” type of role vs. what Polanco would have brought. That appears to be the Twins’ philosophy on that matter. Maybe there will be an additional move, but, if not, this signing is understandable, yet underwhelming. Yeah, just “meh” is probably the best way to put it.

Lots of walks and few strikeouts is a bad combination in a reliever…..

So who in the top 20 might be available to help on the big league club if needed? It looks like the best bets are SWR, Severino, Martin and Lee (Festa isn’t quite there) and none of those are totally ready per se. Of course, we still have Varland, Larnach and Miranda (former top 10s) and a few others, if necessary, outside the top 20 (Winder, Keirsey come to mind). So I guess the “call-up” depth is pretty good at the moment. But I kinda get why we haven’t moved any near term guys at this point.

Is there a bit of sarcasm in your post? In terms of roster construction within what apparently is a tight budget window, Soler (power RH DH and as needed COF) + Topa (needed high leverage relief option) + DeSclafani (cheap 5th/6th starter to go alongside Varland and who will be needed) + Gonzalez (top 100 RH COF filling a sizable hole in our prospect pipeline) + Bowen (wild card, but with definite recognisable promise, future SP or RP) > Polanco (solid and lovable switching hitting, oft injured DH and redundant fill-in infielder). If Soler is the additional piece that is added as a result of the extra cash from the Polanco trade, the Twins roster would be stronger not only for 2024 but beyond as well.

We obviously are not going to have a + fielder at every position in every game during every inning. Such an expectation is unrealistic, particularly when weighing offensive needs. As it relates to our current outfield of Buxton, Kepler, Wallner and Castro, we are probably substantially above average from a defensive standpoint (Wallner is underrated in this regard and improving). Moreover, as contemplated, Soler would primarily fill the DH slot; thereby minimising his defensive liabilities. Sure, he will play some games in the field (primarily most likely against lefties) and when he does, we will not be at our strongest defensively. But our other fielders are more than solid. Yes, Soler in the field is not ideal; however, when combined with his advantages at the plate, it surely is not disqualifying.

Wow, I’m just thinking about turning Polanco into Soler, Topa, DeSclafini, Gonzalez, and Bowen - all essentially from the Mariners. Even I’d have to give the FO credit for that 3D chess.

DH against righties - 2/3rds of starts. Can spell Wallner or Kepler against lefties (depending on who is swinging a hotter bat) - so Wallner won’t lose that many AB’s. Btw, Castro probably starts in CF against lefties (to give Buxton’s legs a rest) and Buxton gets DH time in those cases (so opposite Soler).

Bingo! This is our guy: power, right handed, corner OF/DH Outfield depth chart: Buxton, Kepler, Wallner, Castro, Soler Infield depth chart: Lewis, Correa, Julien, Kiriloff, Farmer Catching depth chart: Jeffers, Vasquez Roving utility player (incl. CF): Gordon (who is out of options) or Martin That’s 13 position players. It would be nice if Soler could play some 1B (which, we know from Moneyball is not difficult, lol). Regardless, Soler plays pretty much everyday - DH against righties and LF or RF against lefties. Sign him without moving Farmer. Soler is an instant hedge on Kepler - so we can move Kepler by the deadline if we really need the cash. Besides, Kepler is gone next year anyway so he pretty much just replaces Kepler’s salary in ‘25 and ‘26. We then have a solid RH power corner outfielder to allow time for Rodriguez, Gonzales, and Jenkins to develop. This is the move. Boy, it’s great to see a plan come together….

Agree. Well, let’s hope if we move him, we get more in return than we did with Steer……..(sarcasm intended).

So, is Severino no longer a candidate to play 1B for the Twins? I guess not given it appears from this post he’s no longer on the radar screen. What happened to him since the glowing top prospect report (#15) we read just last week? Severino at this point probably has more upside than Larnach. Given our dearth of outfielder depth, Wallner is also less likely than Severino to man 1B. If Kiriloff struggles or is injured and Lee is not “ready” and/or Severino gets off to a hot start his year, we may see Severino at 1B sooner rather than never.

Schobel is blocked by three much better young potential stars at his two primary defensive positions. His bat is not suited to DH. His doppelgänger Keaschall is right behind him and might be a better version. Miller is a better utility infielder/late inning specialist because of his glove and can cover SS. Martin is probably a better hitter and has more positional flexibility, including 2B. Schobel seems like he could be the ideal definition of a trade candidate either this season or next (as his value improves and he moves further up our list).

Actually, the Twins now have six 7th-9th inning relievers on the roster if we include Varland and Stewart. The addition of DeSclafani means we can add both Varland and Topa into our late inning, high leverage mix. Shut down bullpens win lots of games. The Twins 2024 relief corp is shaping up to be the best heading into a new season in many, many years.

The “logjam” is easily solved when Lee arrives: Lee play 2B with Julien spelling him as needed. Julien and Kiriloff interchange play 1B and DH. When we are facing a lefty, Castro starts in CF, Buxton DHs (to get the RH bats in there and because we know Buxton can’t play everyday in CF), and either Julien or Kiriloff comes off the bench as a PH to face a right handed reliever. Farmer is available to be a defensive substitute at 1B if desired. Easy peasy.

Sadly, several of our other fellow TDers seem to miss the painful reality that $5MM does matter to this team this year. They can complain about wanting to spend more money or how cheap the Pohlads are, but it doesn’t change the marching orders within which our FO must operate. It’s too bad, but it’s how things are. Like any trade, we shall see how it turns out. Polanco might be an all star and he might play 80 games (especially being slotted in to play 2B on a daily basis). DeSclafini may get 25 starts and pitch 140 innings of 4.50 era ball and not be needed to start any of our many post season games. In the real world of budget constraints under which this team lives, for $2MM I’d take that all day long from a #5 starter backed up by a very deep, strong pen. It’s fantasy land to think that Buxton will not DH plenty this year; if he’s healthy and playing 80 games in CF (which we’d all sign up for right now), are we going to assume he sits on the bench the other 80 games? Not likely. Varland should now be expected to pitch for the Twins as both a starter and reliever this season - that swing role has huge value. And there will be other moves, that, yes, the extra $5MM facilitates. For the moment, this deal has both pros and cons and only time will tell, like any deal, which of the two will prevail. But in the real world of Twins 2024 baseball, no one is omniscient enough to say that, on its face, this deal lowers the Twins’ prospects this season or beyond.

Agree, but maybe it’s enough to get them to spend more than just that….

This morning I posted that I really liked our projected starting lineup in which I had the switch hitting Polanco as the DH in the three hole. Having said that, I’m a little more optimistic about this trade for a couple of reasons: 1. I’m a huge proponent of a shut down pen. Topa is solid with high leverage capabilities. But it’s just not Topa this deal adds to the pen: it’s Varland too. Our 7 - 9 inning pen options are now running six pitchers deep. On paper, this is our most solid pen entering a season in a very long time. That’s huge. Just ask the Astros. 2. Ultimately we are paying about $2MM for DeSclafini. Were we really going to find a better fifth starter for that amount? If he can give us 25 starts of 5-6 innings (135-140 innings) with a 4.50 or so ERA, coupled with our new pen depth, we will win more than 50% of his starts. He doesn’t need to be better than that. 3. Let’s face it, we are short RH outfielders in the system. We just added a top 100 or so prospect to our stable, This hedges out Rodriguez a bit and adds quality depth where it is badly needed. Moreover, it’s another trade chip that, depending on how his 2024 goes, could accrue value. 4. I’m not sleeping on Bowen as a potential MLB reliever. Sure, he’s not the straw stirring this drink, but there is now another very, very live arm in our system. You can never have enough live arms. 5. The extra $5MM+ cash - for our franchise in 2024 - is nothing to sneeze at. It may not seem like much, but let’s see how it’s ultimately deployed. Who knows, maybe just having the extra cash available gets the FO and ownership more comfortable going over reported target payroll levels. For example, maybe there is a player out there who at $10-$20MM was just too expensive, but maybe now can be made to fit with the extra cash. 6. Sadly, the DH replacement solution for a HEALTHY Polanco is not as straightforward. This point is valid. More thought is required, but I think Buxton will be filling that DH role quite a bit anyway with Castro, Gordon or Martin filling in in CF. Moreover, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lee up fairly soon playing some 2B with Kiriloff and Julien able to fill in at 1B and DH.

Great post. Btw, let’s look at this year’s presumptive (as of today - of course lots could still happen) opening day lineup: 2B Julien (L) 3B Lewis (R) DH Polanco (SW) CF Buxton (R) RF Kepler (L) C Jeffers (R) LF Wallner (L) 1B Kiriloff (L) SS Correa (R) Correa and Kepler are the only two returning starters in the field. With Buxton now in CF, there are six new hitters. I like 2024’s lineup over 2023’s.