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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. TopGunn#22
    Excellent article Ted and you've started with a key player for the Twins in Kirilloff. Health is his biggest challenge (like it seems to be for so many Twins players and prospects). None of us really have any idea or certainty and for those who are more pessimistic I hear you. My heart tells me he will hit and be a mainstay in the middle of the order. I also see Royce Lewis contributing sometime after the All Star break. We may have lucked out with Correa landing with the Mets. I see Lewis as our SS. Finally, I agree with the idea that Brooks Lee could be up sooner, rather than later. Highly thought of college bats move more quickly through the minors than high school players. They start a little higher as well. If Lee finds himself in St. Paul and he's hitting ropes, he could be up before the end of the year.
  2. TopGunn#22
    Agree everyone. I always liked Taylor and I'm glad he's playing with his brother. But at 3 yrs and $33 million that's an overpay.
  3. TopGunn#22
    With the exception of Correa the Twins have never been able to land a big time, top tier FA. It was remarkable that we did last year. But I'm all in with the philosophy that if the Twins will never truly be players for the upper tier, we should be swimming in the 2nd tier where you have to be serious bidders but some tremendous signings can be found. Nellie Cruz was one of those signings. This FO has never seemed to have any kind of "plan" going into the off season. And when the music stops, they are chasing after bargain basement players like Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy and Archer. We will have to live and die on our prospect capital, and occasionally trade from that capital to fill a needed weak spot. Looking ahead, one thing is clear to me. We won't be in the Ohtani sweepstakes next year. If 2023 bombs it would be great to see a new FO. But the Pohlads always move very slowly.
  4. TopGunn#22
    I would trade Kepler to Colorado for German Marquez. BTV's match up. Or, trade him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel. Again, BTV's match up. I would sign Aroldis Chapman to a one-year contract. I'd be open to moving Arraez and Larnach and a little more in a package for Pablo Lopez. Maybe Arraez for Edward Cabrera. We need to move at least one of our LH hitting outfielders. Arraez's trade value is as high as it's going to get. I'm looking forward to seeing Julien at some point. Failing a trade for a SP I would sign Nathan Eovaldi. JD Martinez would be helpful and he might actually bounce back a little. But we use the DH as a revolving door post Nellie Cruz. Failing a trade for a RH hitting OF'er just sign Wil Myers already! He's a perfect fit. Then let as much youth play as possible to find out more of what we've got.
  5. TopGunn#22
    One option for a RH hitting outfielder would be Adam Duval. He's a solid fielder with power. With power, you get some swing and miss, but Duval, while he K's a lot is not Sano-esque. It's not like Duval would make us a serious contender, but the Braves got a lot out of him when they needed it.
  6. TopGunn#22
    I think Doc Bauer did an outstanding job of laying out why he's frustrated with our current FO. He aligns with my feelings very closely. I too would like to see us be more proactive at the beginning of the process. For example: Knowing how the FA market spins out of control consistently with insane money being thrown at the "top" FA's, I would have identified Chris Bassitt as my pitching target and gone hard for him right away. The Twins needed an effective SP who also stabilizes the rotation by consistently eating innings. Bassitt is that kind of pitcher. The money he signed for wasn't unreasonable.
  7. TopGunn#22
    Great POST. Really lays out why this is such a great signing at a position of dire need.
  8. TopGunn#22
    I think tony&rodney is on the right track for a possible Lopez trade. According to BTV Arraez 19.7 straight up wouldn't be enough for Lopez 38.7. You'd need to add Larnach 11.9 and Winder 8.4 to get to about 39. That would be in the ballpark. Lopez is just 26 y/o. He's got a proven track record with room to improve. I think I'd do it.
  9. TopGunn#22
    Nice article cjm ! They are all interesting with the only for sure "No" being the Woodruff trade. You're right, he's too expensive and will command BIG bucks once he's FA bound. The other three are all interesting. I'd try to buy low on Marquez. One year of Hendricks could be great or it could blow up in our faces, but the cost is not too steep. To get Lopez, I think the Twins would need to add one more player to the point of a slight overpay to really get the Marlins attention. There will certainly be bidders for Lopez.
  10. TopGunn#22
    This is pretty clear-headed. Does this include Correa, or is this without him? With the price for Correa exploding and Lewis and Brooks in the pipeline we just may need to get a catcher and Chris Bassitt and roll with Farmer. One thing about Bassitt is that he's very consistent. You probably won't see a CY Young season but you won't see a disaster either. And he will eat innings, which is just what our rotation and BP need.
  11. TopGunn#22
    Not sure what Vasquez would cost the Twins with the contract offer but he would be a fine addition. Maybe Jeffers could learn something from him,
  12. TopGunn#22
    I would trade Arraez (19.7 BTV) before I would trade Julien (7.50). I agree with the statement that Julien is somewhat like an Arraez with power. I trade the higher BTV's guy Arraez, in a package to get a SP like Pablo Lopez. It would take Arraez, Larnach and a little something extra to get Lopez. I'd do it.
  13. TopGunn#22
    I would say the Dodgers are all in on Ohtani NEXT year. But the point made about Bauer's salary was an excellent one. That's a LOT to pay for NOTHING. I would like to see Correa back with the Twins, but Swanson and Bogaerts would be pretty darn good at 60% of the cost.
  14. TopGunn#22
    Hendricks BTV is 11.6. Larnach is 14.6. So a little something extra (maybe picking up a LOT of the salary or a player) would have to come from Chicago. Kepler 5.8 and Moran 5.5 would be in the ballpark as well. Having a proven closer would allow the Twins to use Duran in high leverage situations. If Lopez bounces back and Alcala performs you've got the beginnings of a solid BP. Maybe the White Sox do it because they like the players coming back, and maybe because they don't view the Twins as a real threat.
  15. TopGunn#22
    Trading Max Kepler has been discussed several times on TD and the opinions are divided. I think he has little value left as a trade piece although I could get on board a trade for Marquez from Colorado or Lourdes Gurriel from Toronto. Marquez bolsters the pitching staff. Gurriel gives the Twins a RH bat in LF and opens the door for Larnach to play RF. Gurriel is nowhere near the defensive player that Max is, but he's twice the offensive threat. Either deal would basically be a one-for-one deal using BTV. If the Twins want to aim higher in a trade then Larnach is probably the guy to consider although his BTV has dropped 50% from last year to this (30.4 to 14.6). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. What teams would be interested in Max and what teams would be interested in Larnach? I see Kepler's offense improving slightly in 2023 where ever he's playing. But I don't see a significant increase in power or a 50-point jump in batting average.
  16. TopGunn#22

    BTV

    TopGunn#22 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    That's one reason I like the site, and why I sometimes struggle to figure it out. Players values change. Player values are a volatile market. When they're cheap and affordable their value is sky high. When they start making decent salary, their value drops like a stone. Suffer recurring injuries like Balazovic and they appear to be worthless. It's an imperfect science, but BTV has at least given me a metric to have an idea of what a reasonable trade would look like.
  17. TopGunn#22
    dxpavelka, I think his .206 BA last year was on abberation. Historically, he's been a better hitter than that. I like that Narvaez is a LH hitter and as a result, he would get the majority of the innings behind the dish. I'm giving Jeffers one more year to prove it. Actually, his 13.0 value on BTV means he should be dealt THIS year before his value completely craters.
  18. TopGunn#22
    I think I'm in the camp with tony&rodney and Stringer Bell on this. I like Arraez, but if I can make a deal for a #2 type SP to lead my staff I do it. To get a Woodruff (who supposedly is not available) or a Pablo Lopez BTV would require an Ober and Arraez 19.5 + 19.7 = 39.2 deal (Lopez 38.7 and Woodruff 37.8). I'd do it to get a proven SP. As the rest of the SP market spirals out of control, as it always does, I'd look at the Japanese pitcher Senga. I like what I've read and he may be vastly more affordable than Rodon.
  19. TopGunn#22
    I agree guys. This is where the Brewers should be selling high on Woodruff or Burnes and looking to reload. Was hoping to see a deal for Woodruff but this kind of puts a stake in my heart on that one.
  20. TopGunn#22
    I like how Minny505 and MTV have laid this out. Despite the cost of Kepler I don't see us getting much back other than a one for one trade of Kepler for Lourdes Gurriel with the Blue Jays to give us a RH bat in the outfield. Larnach has the greatest "value" (at least according to BTV). If we're looking to add a catcher (Danny Jansen?) thru a trade, or a good SP (Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff) Larnach will have to be involved, possibly with or without Polanco. I think there are plenty of 2B options to replace Polanco and I'd like to see more of Wallner. I think Kirilloff still has a LOT of potential. And injuries have robbed him of any value, so I'd like to hang on to him and see if a return to health pays off.
  21. TopGunn#22
    Rosterman, does this mean Polanco may have trade value to a team like the Brewers who may need a 2M-Man with some pop? Or do you think this removes him from ANY trade consideration at all?
  22. TopGunn#22
    I'm a Polanco fan, but I'm 100% on board trading him. You can add Gordon to the long list of players that could play 2B in the absence of Jorge. I'd trade Polanco and Ober to the Brewers for Brandon Woodruff to get that true #1 at the top of our rotation. The Brewers just traded Wong. They could use a 2B-man with some pop. The numbers work for a BTV trade. This would be a trade for future rotation stability, not just for 2023.
  23. TopGunn#22
    I'm convinced Jeffers will never be more than an adequate backup. The Twins need to either trade for Jansen (BTV has the cost of Moreno or Kirk VERY expensive) or look to acquire Rodriguez from the Pirates. The cupboard is absolutely bare for the Twins at catcher. They need to acquire someone with the plan that guy is the starter and Jeffers is the backup.
  24. TopGunn#22
    This is entirely realistic Nick. I prefer Correa but Bogaerts is a strong #2 candidate. And I agree with Steve71, if we sign Correa to that deal we would need to see our payroll expand into the $160-$170 million range. If the Twins put a good product on the field and are competitive, the revenue will follow making a contract like this doable. But this is a BIG step. To make this move, a plan to be competitive while Buxton and Correa are under contract has to be in place.
  25. TopGunn#22
    This is a very interesting post Matt. Heaney is not exactly Shoemaker, Happ, Archer and Bundy as he has GREAT stuff and great potential. But health issues are ALWAYS knocking on his door and then there are bouts with inconsistency. He's a guy I wouldn't completely excoriate the Twins for signing (as opposed to a Shoemaker) but he's still kind of a Hail Mary no matter what your most realistic expectations are. And what would his role be ? Initial expectations would be to be our #3 starter. But if he gets hurt (and it's very likely he will) and you have to limit innings he would have to move to the bullpen, where honestly, he could be a good piece but not exactly be fulfilling what you expected him to do. In the end, I could live with a Heaney signing if the money I saved was used to plug some of the other holes the Twins roster has.
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