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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. TopGunn#22
    Good Topic. Certainly inspired good responses. I would have only included Lopez from the initial three. If he's anything like he was in Baltimore he's a huge compliment to Duran at the back end. I think he rebounds. I give a high five to Boswell for his comments and to those who mentioned Kirilloff and Larnach as well. We need health in the starting rotation. But the key for the Twins to me is Buxton. If he's healthy and plays 140 games, those that said 35-40HR's and 100 RBI's are correct. He's our most impactful player.
  2. TopGunn#22
    How much would a guy with an electric arm (Alex Reyes) cost the Twins ??
  3. TopGunn#22
    I would sign a LH (Moore or Britton, lean toward Moore). I would package Theilbar and Kepler to the Yanks like BTV has suggested for Domingo German and promising outfield prospect Pierera. German allows Maeda to begin in the BP. Then sign Rosenthal/Alex Reyes. So the Twins would end up with a LH & RH from Moore/Britton and Rosenthal/Reyes. Each has closing experience so Duran doesn't have to should the entire load at the back end. The Twins would still certainly need to employ plenty of their young pitchers throughout the long season, but with a pen like that (and I expect Jorge Lopez to bounce back strongly) we would have depth AND talent.
  4. TopGunn#22
    There is no doubt Joe will get in. But first ballot honors are a high bar. I think he gets in on his 2nd or 3rd try. A great honor for a classy guy.
  5. TopGunn#22
    Excellent article Ted and you've started with a key player for the Twins in Kirilloff. Health is his biggest challenge (like it seems to be for so many Twins players and prospects). None of us really have any idea or certainty and for those who are more pessimistic I hear you. My heart tells me he will hit and be a mainstay in the middle of the order. I also see Royce Lewis contributing sometime after the All Star break. We may have lucked out with Correa landing with the Mets. I see Lewis as our SS. Finally, I agree with the idea that Brooks Lee could be up sooner, rather than later. Highly thought of college bats move more quickly through the minors than high school players. They start a little higher as well. If Lee finds himself in St. Paul and he's hitting ropes, he could be up before the end of the year.
  6. TopGunn#22
    Wow! If true that is quite the trade chpettit19. Varsho is a great young talent, just the LH hitter Toronto was probably looking for. But Arizona gets tremendous value back. Gurriel is a RH hitter I had wished the Twins could have acquired, and Moreno is a really promising catching prospect. I think this works well for BOTH teams.
  7. TopGunn#22
    I like Arraez, he's one of my favorite Twins. But the time to trade him is now when his value is at a peak, especially with Polanco as our starting 2B and Julien on the way. I agree with Doc Gast on a Kepler for Marquez trade because Marquez could rebound getting away from Coors Field and he's a horse. A true innings eater. I would do that trade, but I would also be willing to trade Arraez straight up for Edward Cabrera or Arraez and Larnach for Pablo Lopez.
  8. TopGunn#22
    Agree everyone. I always liked Taylor and I'm glad he's playing with his brother. But at 3 yrs and $33 million that's an overpay.
  9. TopGunn#22
    I would grade this signing "perplexing." I was expecting a Wil Myers signing. That would have made more sense. This certainly means a LH hitting OF'er is being traded. My guess, in order for this to truly have a benefit to the Twins is Larnach, Arraez and something else to Miami for Pablo Lopez. Anything short of dealing for a #1 for our rotation will fall short of accomplishing what I guess the FO is trying for. But for now, I'm scratching my head.
  10. TopGunn#22
    With the exception of Correa the Twins have never been able to land a big time, top tier FA. It was remarkable that we did last year. But I'm all in with the philosophy that if the Twins will never truly be players for the upper tier, we should be swimming in the 2nd tier where you have to be serious bidders but some tremendous signings can be found. Nellie Cruz was one of those signings. This FO has never seemed to have any kind of "plan" going into the off season. And when the music stops, they are chasing after bargain basement players like Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy and Archer. We will have to live and die on our prospect capital, and occasionally trade from that capital to fill a needed weak spot. Looking ahead, one thing is clear to me. We won't be in the Ohtani sweepstakes next year. If 2023 bombs it would be great to see a new FO. But the Pohlads always move very slowly.
  11. TopGunn#22
    I would trade Kepler to Colorado for German Marquez. BTV's match up. Or, trade him to Toronto for Lourdes Gurriel. Again, BTV's match up. I would sign Aroldis Chapman to a one-year contract. I'd be open to moving Arraez and Larnach and a little more in a package for Pablo Lopez. Maybe Arraez for Edward Cabrera. We need to move at least one of our LH hitting outfielders. Arraez's trade value is as high as it's going to get. I'm looking forward to seeing Julien at some point. Failing a trade for a SP I would sign Nathan Eovaldi. JD Martinez would be helpful and he might actually bounce back a little. But we use the DH as a revolving door post Nellie Cruz. Failing a trade for a RH hitting OF'er just sign Wil Myers already! He's a perfect fit. Then let as much youth play as possible to find out more of what we've got.
  12. TopGunn#22
    One option for a RH hitting outfielder would be Adam Duval. He's a solid fielder with power. With power, you get some swing and miss, but Duval, while he K's a lot is not Sano-esque. It's not like Duval would make us a serious contender, but the Braves got a lot out of him when they needed it.
  13. TopGunn#22
    I think Doc Bauer did an outstanding job of laying out why he's frustrated with our current FO. He aligns with my feelings very closely. I too would like to see us be more proactive at the beginning of the process. For example: Knowing how the FA market spins out of control consistently with insane money being thrown at the "top" FA's, I would have identified Chris Bassitt as my pitching target and gone hard for him right away. The Twins needed an effective SP who also stabilizes the rotation by consistently eating innings. Bassitt is that kind of pitcher. The money he signed for wasn't unreasonable.
  14. TopGunn#22
    I think the Twins dodged a bullet here. I wanted Correa back, but 13 years and $350 is ridiculous. At some point, when things get that insane you just have to fold your cards and walk away. They still have Lewis and Lee and possibly they will pick a SS with the #5 pick in next year's draft. The Giants might get 6 or 7 good years out of Correa. They will be paying him until he's 42 years old. They've got their catcher, now use some money to sign a pitcher or two. I still think a trade involving Kepler, Larnach, Arraez and others is the best way to add the type of SP they are needing.
  15. TopGunn#22
    Great POST. Really lays out why this is such a great signing at a position of dire need.
  16. TopGunn#22
    I think tony&rodney is on the right track for a possible Lopez trade. According to BTV Arraez 19.7 straight up wouldn't be enough for Lopez 38.7. You'd need to add Larnach 11.9 and Winder 8.4 to get to about 39. That would be in the ballpark. Lopez is just 26 y/o. He's got a proven track record with room to improve. I think I'd do it.
  17. TopGunn#22
    Nice article cjm ! They are all interesting with the only for sure "No" being the Woodruff trade. You're right, he's too expensive and will command BIG bucks once he's FA bound. The other three are all interesting. I'd try to buy low on Marquez. One year of Hendricks could be great or it could blow up in our faces, but the cost is not too steep. To get Lopez, I think the Twins would need to add one more player to the point of a slight overpay to really get the Marlins attention. There will certainly be bidders for Lopez.
  18. TopGunn#22
    This is pretty clear-headed. Does this include Correa, or is this without him? With the price for Correa exploding and Lewis and Brooks in the pipeline we just may need to get a catcher and Chris Bassitt and roll with Farmer. One thing about Bassitt is that he's very consistent. You probably won't see a CY Young season but you won't see a disaster either. And he will eat innings, which is just what our rotation and BP need.
  19. TopGunn#22
    Not sure what Vasquez would cost the Twins with the contract offer but he would be a fine addition. Maybe Jeffers could learn something from him,
  20. TopGunn#22
    I would trade Arraez (19.7 BTV) before I would trade Julien (7.50). I agree with the statement that Julien is somewhat like an Arraez with power. I trade the higher BTV's guy Arraez, in a package to get a SP like Pablo Lopez. It would take Arraez, Larnach and a little something extra to get Lopez. I'd do it.
  21. TopGunn#22
    I would say the Dodgers are all in on Ohtani NEXT year. But the point made about Bauer's salary was an excellent one. That's a LOT to pay for NOTHING. I would like to see Correa back with the Twins, but Swanson and Bogaerts would be pretty darn good at 60% of the cost.
  22. TopGunn#22
    Hendricks BTV is 11.6. Larnach is 14.6. So a little something extra (maybe picking up a LOT of the salary or a player) would have to come from Chicago. Kepler 5.8 and Moran 5.5 would be in the ballpark as well. Having a proven closer would allow the Twins to use Duran in high leverage situations. If Lopez bounces back and Alcala performs you've got the beginnings of a solid BP. Maybe the White Sox do it because they like the players coming back, and maybe because they don't view the Twins as a real threat.
  23. TopGunn#22
    Trading Max Kepler has been discussed several times on TD and the opinions are divided. I think he has little value left as a trade piece although I could get on board a trade for Marquez from Colorado or Lourdes Gurriel from Toronto. Marquez bolsters the pitching staff. Gurriel gives the Twins a RH bat in LF and opens the door for Larnach to play RF. Gurriel is nowhere near the defensive player that Max is, but he's twice the offensive threat. Either deal would basically be a one-for-one deal using BTV. If the Twins want to aim higher in a trade then Larnach is probably the guy to consider although his BTV has dropped 50% from last year to this (30.4 to 14.6). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. What teams would be interested in Max and what teams would be interested in Larnach? I see Kepler's offense improving slightly in 2023 where ever he's playing. But I don't see a significant increase in power or a 50-point jump in batting average.
  24. TopGunn#22

    BTV

    TopGunn#22 commented on Doctor Gast's blog entry in Doctor Gast's Blog

    That's one reason I like the site, and why I sometimes struggle to figure it out. Players values change. Player values are a volatile market. When they're cheap and affordable their value is sky high. When they start making decent salary, their value drops like a stone. Suffer recurring injuries like Balazovic and they appear to be worthless. It's an imperfect science, but BTV has at least given me a metric to have an idea of what a reasonable trade would look like.
  25. TopGunn#22
    dxpavelka, I think his .206 BA last year was on abberation. Historically, he's been a better hitter than that. I like that Narvaez is a LH hitter and as a result, he would get the majority of the innings behind the dish. I'm giving Jeffers one more year to prove it. Actually, his 13.0 value on BTV means he should be dealt THIS year before his value completely craters.
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