TopGunn#22

I agree with Tony & Rodney: Every prospect is movable. It always comes down to what you are getting back.

There are solid arguments for both sides. $12 million per year even for a back end (#3-4-5) veteran starter who is dependable and can be counted on for a level of innings and production per season is decent value. The counter argument is what the Twins have in the pipeline. If the cupboard was bare, I'd pony the money up NOW. But the cupboard is hardly bare. So that brings us to a couple of modern day baseball axioms. Since nobody pitches 300 innings anymore and almost no one pitches even 200 innings, and you can't count on having 5 starters make 30-35 starts for you in season...Signing Gray now for $11-$12 million for 4 years or $13 million for 3-years makes sense. Some of the Twins pitching prospects will pan out. Unfortunately, some will not. And each year the draft will put a few more into the pipeline. There is also the potential to add a Montas/Castillo type at the trade deadline and/or add a Musgrove/Rodon/Taillon next year and of course Kenta Maeda isn't dead and buried, he's very much alive and working to get back. I'm not anxious to summarily move a guy to the bullpen who finished #2 in A.L. Cy Young voting in 2020. For me, he's a SP until he pitches himself OUT of the rotation. The idea is to build a staff that has a blend of youth and experience and that has depth from which you can fill holes as bumps in the road occur and trade from said depth if an opportunity presents itself. $11-$13 million per year for a solid SP is worth more to a team than having a Miguel Sano. "You can never have too much pitching."

We all have a very similar story. One of the beauties of whiffle ball was all the different places you could play it: Different backyards with different dimensions or quirks (just like big league stadiums). In the street, at the school playground etc...you could switch things up with different ground rules. It also depended how many people you had playing. Smaller groups, all groundballs were outs. If players were on base and a double play was in order...you GOT that Twin-Killing...now matter what. Yes indeed, you had to bat as the team's lineup dictated. Twins of course, Big Red Machine, Red Sox, Giants (Willie Mays & Willie McCovey) but I also did the Pirates alot. Clemente, Stargell, Al Oliver, Manny Sangullien, Matty Alou, Don Clendennon, Gene Clines, etc...it was a loaded lineup and fun to mimic. HOURS of FUN. I had as much fun being Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Jim Palmer, Don Sutton and Bill Singer and Twins like Dave Boswell, Jim Perry, Mudcat Grant and Bert Blyleven.

Hard to believe college baseball can just double a pitching coaches salary of a Major League Baseball Team. Hmmmm. Wes probably got tired of Rocco's inability to manage a bullpen as well as the questionable pitch count limitations on SP's. Probably drove him nuts.

They need to make some moves and the sooner the better. Lopez has been solid for Baltimore. Bednar has been great for Pittsburg. I realize RP's are volatile year to year but those two guys have good arms and stuff and would be two excellent targets. I'm sure the Twins are talking with teams, but I'm afraid nothing really gets done until the deadline approaches.

Great comments by many posters. I think I wore out the "Rec" or approval icons. Our FO needs to do something sooner rather than never for our BP. Our manager shot to notoriety on the strength of a record setting HR season. He really isn't very good with situational baseball, whether that's managing a BP or manufacturing a run when all you need is one run to win. This series is showing the gap between someone like Francona and Rocco. Give me back Paul Molitor...analytics be damned. It's a long season. But this stretch is shining a huge spotlight on all this team's flaws, from personnel to the managing and coaching. "Staying the course" doesn't seem to be an effective strategy. Some shaking up of the current situation is needed, whether that's trades or other moves.

I had not considered a 3-team deal and had actually not considered Kepler going to the Padres. If we're looking at the Reds or A's, they wouldn't want Kepler. They'd want Kirilloff or Larnach. The Padres however, want to win NOW and would be very interested in someone like Kepler. I'm just not sure with a guy like Snell. His velocity and stuff appear to be as good as his Cy Young season, but the results are a far cry form it. Obviously, if you get "Cy Young Snell" it's a brilliant trade. But what he seems to be right now is nowhere near that. I do get the sense however that someone among Kepler, Kirilloff or Larnach may be the key piece in a trade to bring back a front line pitcher. I think Snell is too risky and other targets are more likely. I just can't see the Twins taking on the contract of Yu Darvish either.

Looking at MLB Trade Values, Rogers is still valued at 60.4 at 24 years old. (that's no diminishment of value at all) That would cost you Larnach AND Miranda for equal value. That's a pretty hefty price. Rogers still has outstanding stuff and would unquestionably be our Ace going forward. The key is discovering why he's been pretty crummy this year and "fixing" him. I'd have to have a definite idea what it would take to "fix him" before I would make that deal. But he's younger, has more cost controlled years and possibly more talented than Montas/Castillo. And he's Left handed ! I'm not interested in Hendricks at all. The Yankee and Astro lineups would eat him alive. Marquez is intriguing. He's gone from a value of 60.0 not that long ago to now just 16.1. He's 27 years old and still has good stuff. You could get him for Miranda even up. One thing I will say about Marquez is that he's a horse ! He is a 200 inning pitcher and may just need to get away from Coors to rediscover his confidence. He may not project as a #1 or even a #2 but he could be a solid #3 who eats innings and helps keep your BP from getting overworked.

I think it's time to get Kirilloff up. I like BOTH Larnach and Kiriloff, but Kirilloff has always had the bigger upside. I've always felt that at some point, BOTH would show themselves to be solid major league hitters and that because of Kepler, eventually, one would need to be traded for a player who could help the team more...like a SS or a SP. With Correa, I don't see us trading for a SS. Larnach profiles as a Jesse Winker type player and I'd think both the A's and the Reds would be interested in him as part of a Montas or Castillo deal. Either of those pitchers would lead our rotation and give us somebody who could be counted on to consistently throw close to 7 innings a start. That takes a little pressure off the BP and deepens the rotation. A top 3 of Montas/Castillo with Ryan and Gray is something I'd be confident in going into a playoff series. And I agree with the prevailing sentiment on TD. Why not get a scorching hot Kirilloff up and into the Twins lineup NOW (or at least very soon). He should probably slot into the 5 or 6 spot in that lineup and could even be our #3 at some point if he keeps raking. ANY lineup could benefit from THAT type of hitter.

I certainly think Miranda is a trade chip and would use him in a trade for either Montas or Castillo. I'd hang onto Steer if I dealt Miranda just to have a little backstop for prospects and because I think Steer is undervalued as a prospect (at least according to MLB Trade Values). I think a package of Miranda and Ober (once healthy) could be the foundation of a deal to bring a Montas or Castillo to the Twins. I'd hate to give up either one, but you've gotta give something of value to get something of value. Ober would step into either the A's or Reds rotation and Miranda would step into either of their lineups. Miranda's position versatility would get him into the lineup at either 3B, 1B or DH. Plenty of opportunities. However, to do this, the Twins FO would need to lock Montas or Castillo up for a minimum of 5 years at equal to Berrios money or a little higher. I believe both Montas and Castillo are superior pitchers to Berrios, so I'd pay the freight to get that SP #1 with Ace potential to front my rotation.

I'm with Greglw3 on this. Correa is a franchise player. The kind of guy a team should build around. I know Pena is doing well for the Astros, but franchise SS's just aren't the type of player a team should just let walk. If the goal is to win a World Series then the Twins need to sign him long term. Buxton is a superstar talent who the team feels can't play more than 100 games in a season. The Twins signed him to a contract that protects them as well as Buxton. In other words, it's "affordable." If there is ONE position I'd be willing to shell out $30 million a year it would be for a SS who is the league's Platinum Gold Glove winner and who has a proven record of Post-Season Heroics. Correa is THAT GUY. A team with Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach, Royce Lewis and Arraez as it offensive/defensive core with the young pitching coming up SHOULD be able to compete for 5-10 years. When you have a franchise player like Buxton, who may or may not be in the lineup on any given day, you need a true superstar like Correa to provide that leadership and stability every day. I'll still take whatever Buxton can give me. But I want and need Correa to be the foundation everything is built on. I say we take full advantage of Houston's "mistake."

I had posted a Montas trade on TD yesterday in which Steer was part of a deal for Montas. I think Steer's 3.30 "value" as currently rendered is too low and I would think the A's would be interested in him. I don't think the Twins need to acquire TWO SP's. One of Montas/Castillo/Mahle would be sufficient for this year/future years for me. With the emergence of Smeltzer and the eventual return of Maeda, Paddock etc...I think the Twins have plenty of good SP options for 2022 and beyond. What is needed is a STUD #1 which Montas or Castillo could provide. They also could really use TWO bullpen pieces to lengthen out the pen. I'm advocating for Jose Lopez (Baltimore) and AJ Puk (as part of a Montas trade). There are certainly interesting options elsewhere, but those are the two I've put forth as being good fits and reasonable assets that wouldn't be prohibitively expensive. The Twins have a number of young players that look like they are ready to contribute at the major league level right now or very soon. It's time leverage this into some acquisitions to help the team this year as well as future years. I'm not into one-year rentals THIS year. Maybe in the future I would be. But for this team, in 2022, I'm looking for this year benefits as well as the future.

It's not just that Kirilloff is hitting for a high average. It's that his power is there. I, for one, would love to see him called up and rotated between 1B, LF/RF and DH. With the majority of pitching being RH he should be in line for plenty of AB's. Kepler is having a better year and that's good to see. Less power than we'd like, but better AB's. Larnach and Kirilloff are somewhat redundant but there would be nothing wrong with having all three in the lineup together. But a GOOD Kirilloff along with an up and coming Larnach really gives the Twins options in a possible trade package to bring a Montas/Castillo level starter to the rotation. Also, I agree with FlyingFinn, any word on Balazovic ? Is it an injury ? Or something else ? This guy has so much promise!! But like Duran, Ryan, Winder etc...he's got to be healthy to realize that promise.

Rocco could never figure out that he had a "closer" on his staff (Taylor Rogers), it was always bullpen by committee. And his pulling Smeltzer, a soft tosser who doesn't need velo to be effective after 70 pitches or so are just a couple of my head scratchers for him. He was a great manager when we were hitting 300+ HR's...but who wouldn't be. He's never shown me the ability to "manufacture" a run here or there and his bullpen management has always been weak. Honestly, aside from Dave Roberts (who does less with tons of resources as a manager) Rocco is a poor manager and at best "just average." Joe Maddon is available. Think about that for a moment.

I'm with Doc Bauer on this one. I just can't see Duffey remaining on the team for long. Whether some sort of injury conveniently happens or he's just simply DFA'd there are younger arms with better stuff. I for one think Smeltzer should remain in the rotation no matter when Ryan and Gray return and stay there until he pitches himself out of it. He's a lefty and he's been exceptionally good. Bundy isn't long for this team and Archer should be moved to long relief---3 innings per stint or so. I could see Archer coming in after Winder goes 4-5 innings (or, dreaming a little bit, Canterino). I like the idea of adding an arm like Jose Lopez from Baltimore to the pen. It gives the Twins Duran and Lopez to close and deepens the depth. Not sure what he would cost but I don't see it as being "prohibitive."

First off: I ALWAYS worry about the Twins. It's in my nature. But I will agree, as "magical" as last year was for the White Sox (nearly everything went right for them, just like absolutely everything went wrong for the Twins) this year has been a nightmare for them. I believe they WILL get better and the Twins will battle with them until the end. And yes, we should have some key guys coming back soon. But, as was pointed out, in todays baseball guys are constantly hurt and the roster is always in a state of flux. The Twins still need to make a few moves to strengthen this ballclub. Dealing for a #1 (Montas, Castillo) or a solid #2 or #3 (Eovaldi, Mahle) is needed to give the Twins a 7-inning starter every 5th day so the bullpen doesn't run out of gas. And dead weight like Theilbar and Duffey need to be replaced with some arms with more "juice." Guys like Lopez (Baltimore) and Puk (Oakland) are a couple I'm partial to. I'd love to see some action NOW, but there really won't be anything happening until closer to deadline. That said, I'm willing to part with young talent (except Canterino) to add a guy like Montas/Castillo who I would then offer a 5-year extension to be the staff Ace. Both are better pitchers with higher upsides than Berrios, so I'd be willing to invest in them. Getting Lopez and Puk for the pen should be pieces the Twins would have some control over for longer than just the end of this season too. Working Lewis into the mix this season (with maybe a "dash" of Canterino) and I think the Twins could possibly even win a playoff game. Maybe not the SERIES, but just win a darn game !! And we'd have the foundation for a pretty talented young group going forward. I think it's obvious this team doesn't need Miguel Sano. What can they get for him ? I'd listen.

First off, I agree with everyone who says Smeltzer belongs in the rotation. He certainly does until he makes 3 consecutive starts that are bad enough to remove him from the rotation. His last start, with 7 shutout innings and 79 pitches Rocco should have just left him in. I also agree with those who are saying Archer has NOT been bad. He's been about what I hoped for. I see him thriving in a long relief role where he gives you 2-3 innings in the 5th/6th or 6th/7th inning. Keep him just long enough to be effective but not long enough to get in deep trouble. There is value in that kind of role. He's a veteran. If it means staying on a Big League roster, he will adapt to something other than starting. But this gets us back to the points Nick made in another post: The staff as a whole has some serious gaps. Starters generally don't go long enough and there are only a couple of "reliable" bullpen arms. Right now, Theilbar and Duffey aren't cutting it. Each should be packaged in a trade to reinforce the pitching staff. Teams dealing pitching always need SOME kind of pitching coming back, primarily because nobody has an endless supply of arms. Duffey and Theilbar would have enough value to help close a deal. So that brings us back to the need to trade for some more reliable arms. I want the Twins to continue to explore Frankie Montas possibilities. If someone like A.J. Puk could be included, so much the better. This is where Theilbar could come in handy. Puk and Theilbar swap teams leaving both teams with a LH bullpen option. I see Luis Castillo was REALLY good in his last start against the Giants. I still like Lopez from the Orioles. Maybe a deal could be made for Lopez and Means. I'd like the F.O. to remain engaged in some of these possibilities, sooner rather than later. But most teams will wait until the trade deadline to maximize leverage. The Twins just need to get Ryan and Winder back (and Gray !) and "maintain" until the deadline approaches. But there is no doubt, the status quo won't be successful. A deal (or deals plural) need to be made.

Happy Birthday indeed Terry-Dacs !! I will only mention Rogers this one time as well. It frustrates me that Rocco didn't seem to realize what he had in Rogers...a CLOSER ! Part of the disaster of 2021 was going with the bum Colome FAR longer than was needed. Rocco wanted a split BP while I thought Rogers should have been the closer all along. Even with the huge hole we dug, Rocco still didn't seem to realize that. No he's closing for the Padres and he'll be an All Star. As I said earlier, I think we've gotten about as much as we can out of the "St. Paul Shuffle." It's time to deal some prospects for bullpen arms that can actually help. They need TWO arms and they should make a trade sooner rather than later.

They have done about all they can with shuttling guys back and forth from AAA. It's time to make a few trades to add some juice to the bullpen and move on from guys (Theilbar, Duffey) who just don't have that juice anymore. Lopez from Baltimore and Puk from Oakland are a couple of guys that interest me. But I'd stress that the F.O. can't wait until the deadline. They need to reinforce the bullpen sooner rather than later.

This was written on Saturday, just a couple days after Smeltzer's brilliant outing on Thursday. I'm just finally reading it on Memorial Day. 1. Smeltzer is IN the rotation now. He will have to be really bad for 4-5 starts to pitch himself out of it. 2. Canterino has stuff that will play in the big leagues. With the roster crunch when the Twins have to go to Toronto coming up, I'd move Canterino from AA right up to the Twins. I like the idea of using him as an opener so he stays with his current routine as a "starter" and I'd throw him as many innings as his pitch count would dictate. I have no idea what that pitch count is...60 pitches ? 70 ? We have two older SP's who can't seem to get past the 4th inning---Archer and Bundy. Once Winder comes back, I'd "open" with Winder and Canterino, and then let Archer and Bundy get me thru the 6th/7th before going to guys in their current "slots." Primarily Pagan and Duran. Guys like Theilbar and Duffey aren't giving the Twins much this year at all. I'd REALLY like the Twins to acquire Montas. He and Gray at the top of the rotation with Ryan is pretty darn solid. Ober is having his ups and downs but Winder looks like he'll be part of the rotation for several years. Montas would front the rotation and I'd sign him to an extension. He's got a higher ceiling than Berrios ever had. I'd look to add another power arm like Lopez from Baltimore too. The question is, what would it take to get Montas ? At this point, I'd be willing to make Balazovic the centerpiece of the deal, but I wouldn't be including Larnach, Kiriloff or Arraez. It would have to be lower level minor league players that have potential but aren't ready to contribute within a year. Oakland is not going to compete in 2023 anyway, so the A's should take some lower level, high potential guys. Maybe someone like Wallner. The key with Montas is to get him, not just for the rest of this year or next, but for the next 5 years.

Going to the saints game today with family. Should be fun to see Cole sands pitch, and Lewis, Kiriloff and Steer assault baseballs.

Not only is it time to get some bullpen help (I'm all for Lopez), it's time to move Smeltzer into the rotation and move Archer to a Griffen Jax role...middle guy who can go 3 innings. That, to me is where Bundy should be headed as well. It's time to move on from Duffey and Theilbar as well. Shuffling some roles and adding an arm like Lopez could help. I'd love to see Canterino in the pen at some point, but the Twins seem (probably rightfully so) to be committed to using him as a SP all year. I just don't know how that will work with whatever innings limit they have already determined for him. Still, if this team could ever figure out "situational hitting" we'd have won the last two games against the Tigers and Royals. You can't keep loading the bases with nobody out, late in one-run games and coming up with a goose egg.

This is where Rocco infuriates me. 79 pitches !!! Smeltzer was in command, and for a guy that doesn't throw hard (i.e. MAX effort on every pitch) he could easily have gone at least another inning, probably even finished the game. I know hindsight is 20/20 but this is just one of my persistent pet peeves with Rocco. Duffey ain't the Duffey of old. Neither is Theilbar. It's time to look to deal both of those guys and load up with Lopez types.

Nicely done Axel !!

Still...I just miss Royce. Come back Royce, please come back...sigh... Love the history for the intro. Few people know how badly FDR prolonged the Great Depression with his policies either. A basketball coach of mine in high school was also a history teacher and he bragged up FDR in a big way. It wasn't until I was a young man, 4-5 years removed from college that I decided to read a few other books on the subject and I was shocked that my history teacher/coach from high school never pointed out any of that.