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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. TopGunn#22
    That's a good trade possibility "Moderation." Whether it would be Kepler for Marquez straight up or Kepler for Montas straight up BOTH trades work for the Twins because we subtract one LH hitting OF'er and add a RH pitcher capable of throwing 150-180 innings with a decent amount of effectiveness. We have to come up with at least one and hopefully two pitchers who can hit that kind of innings pitched so we don't over stress the BP. Ryan can do it. Maybe Mahle or Gray. But Marquez or Montas would certainly help.
  2. TopGunn#22
    Sorry about the double posting of my first comments, Not sure how that happened. Maybe the simplest trade to make was proposed by Doc Gast, a frequent poster here, on the Baseball Trade Values site: A one for one swap of Max Kepler 7.6 in value for Frankie Montas 8.1 in value. Montas will miss the first 3-4 weeks of the season due to some lingering shoulder issues, but is expected to be fine going forward. With Kirilloff, Larnach, Gallo and Wallner, Max is probably getting traded. I'd be all in on a deal straight up for Montas. Montas would probably become our #1. He's got great stuff. The Yankees are reported to be willing to deal him and they have interest in Max Kepler. A trade like this leaves Miranda's bat in the middle of the Twins lineup and doesn't move any other assets. It also opens up opportunity for Larnach and Wallner as I commented as TonyO. Montas, once healthy, is a pitcher that can throw 6-7 innings per start and be very effective doing it.
  3. TopGunn#22
    Great ideas Jamie ! The Cortes trade with the Yanks is too low with value for the Yanks. The rule of thumb in acquiring young, controllable pitching is that you must overpay to some degree to win the bid. If you add Festa to the Woodruff trade you would be at 52.5 to Woodruff's value of 51.2. And I would make this trade. Woodruff gives you a horse at the top of your rotation and you pay to keep him around. He's the kind of guy you want to hand the ball for game #1 of a playoff game. It pushes everyone else down a rung as well, deepening the staff. I like Gallon. But I'm just NOT parting with Lee or Lewis. I want to build around them and Correa & Buxton. Tony&Rodney has been pushing for the twins to acquire Edward Cabrera from the Marlins. Even with this Woodruff trade I would still consider engaging with the Marlins for another pitcher. Cabrera's BTV is 14.8 (contrast that with Lopez at 38.7). Lopez is 26 and controllable for 2023 & 2024. Cabrera is 24 years old and controllable thru 2029. I'd gamble on the control and possible upside of Cabrera. I've already parted with Miranda, Ober and Festa. Farmer and a others will cover 3B until lee or Lewis show they're ready. I could trade Larnach 14.6 straight up for Cabrera or throw in someone like Cavaco or Sabato to sweeten the deal. Starting Rotation: Woodruff, Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Cabrera. Maeda starts in long relief and as he builds up has a chance to crack the rotation. Paddock is also out there lurking somewhere. To cap off a tremendously successful off season I sign Andrew Chafin for the BP to deepen it even more. I'm looking for a return to form for Lopez and a contribution from Alcala. Lineup: 1. Arraez DH 2.Kirilloff 1B 3.Buxton CF 4.Polanco 2B 5.Correa SS 6.Gallo LF 7.Vazquez C 8.Kepler RF 9.Farmer/Gordon/Jullien 3B. I don't know what my payroll is, but with the signing of Correa the Twins are in "win now" mode. I Love that rotation. I like that BP. I'd like a little better lineup but Lewis and Lee will probably both be up sometime in 2023.
  4. TopGunn#22
    Great article Adam! And great comments, especially Doc Bauer. I agree, Larnach could easily be added to this list. However, I believe a trade or two is in the offing and some of these players could be included. I don't think any of the 4 Adam listed will be, although I'd be willing to part with jeffers in a package to acquire a better catching prospect. It's interesting so many on TD are "down" on Pablo Lopez when he's the same age as Ryan and has performed in a similar fashion. I'd take another Joe Ryan on our staff in a heartbeat. And if Lopez was acquired and performed well, I would expect the Twins to extend him. They didn't extend Berrios, and it was probably the right move. If Ryan and Lopez are performing I think they would keep them both and someone like Paddock to be the foundation of a starting staff going forward.
  5. TopGunn#22
    I'm looking for Lee to continue to impress as the best college bat when he somehow slipped all the way to 8th for us in last year's draft and we snapped him up. I'm also excited to see both Julien and Martin and see what kind of pressure they put on the Twins brain trust. Not necessarily expecting any of Lee, Julien or Martin to break camp with the Twins, but a good showing and continued success at St. Paul could see one or more of them up with the big club.
  6. TopGunn#22
    Agree this is a shrewd move. Twins F.O. is riding the momentum of the Vazquez and Correa signings and this is a high upside gamble. You can NEVER have too many talented arms and this gives the Twins one more option for three more years. I don't think ALL of Mahle, Gray and Maeda will be gone, but I don't think all three will still be here either. I still expect a trade for a SP pitcher or two is in the works for 2023.
  7. TopGunn#22
    I rec'd Twins GM because I like his thought process even though I'd rather trade Larnach than Jullien & Martin. I don't see us trading a SP unless one of the teams we talk to wants a SP back, and Miami would be focused on bats. However, the Yankees for Montas the Pirates for Endy Rodriguez, Colorado for Marquez are all possibilities. I see not just one, but maybe a couple of trades coming. I'm 100% on board with trading Jeffers, especially if he could be included with something else in a deal with the Pirates for Rodriguez. A tandem of Vazquez the vet and Rodriquez as the catcher of the future would be outstanding. I'd overpay with the Pirates to make that happen. We have nothing for the next 2-3 years for catching coming up in our farm system.
  8. TopGunn#22
    There will be a trade (or trades plural) coming at some point. The Twins roster is jammed with players at certain positions and they need a horse to lead the staff who could give them 170-190 innings. Lopez would be that guy. He's just 26 years old and has 2 years of team control. By that time, the Twins F.O. will have figured out who from Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ober, Varland, Winder, SWR, Balazovic, Canterino, and others (Ryan is a no-brainer) will be staying and going. I still like a play for Lopez AND Sixto Sanchez. I'm not averse to trading Arraez, his value will never be higher. I'm anxious to see Julien, with more power and as "The God of Walks" replace him. To me, one of Arraez or Polanco should be traded. (I'd consider Larnach in the right package as well). I'd still engage with Colorado for a possible Kepler for German Marquez deal. Stockpile some arms and let Lee, Lewis, Julien, Rodriguez among others hit their way onto the Twins and into the everyday lineup.
  9. TopGunn#22
    As the roster is currently constructed there are going to be some trades coming to better align talent on offense and pitching. I like Arraez and Polanco, but with Julien and Gordon I could see one of them dealt. Kepler, Gallo and Larnach are too similar for one of Kepler or Larnach to dealt. Miami is a potential trade partner but so is Colorado with maybe a German Marquez and Connor Joe type of deal. I would certainly look to sign Chafin. And with Theilbar still being effective but 35 years old, signing Chafin would enable the Twins to include Theilbar in a trade if a bigger deal was possible.
  10. TopGunn#22
    Doc Bauer, I couldn't have said it better. I would just add two possible trades to take another big step forward for this year and several years to come. Yes, go get a RH bat. McCutcheon or Mancini would fill the bill at an affordable cost. Here are the trade options: Trade #1 (All values courtesy of Baseball Trade Values). Marlins Get: Arraez 26.6 and Larnach 14.6 for a total of 41.2 Twins Get: Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto Sanchez 1.6 for a total of 40.3. Or, Trade #2" Marlins Get: Polanco 34.8 and Kepler 7.6 for a total value of 42.4. Twins Get: Pablo Lopez 38.7 and Sixto sanchez 1.6 for a total value of 40.3. I'm slightly overpaying in each trade because you HAVE TO if you want to add young, talented, controllable pitching. In each trade the Marlins get bats and we move one LH hitting outfielder. The Twins get Lopez, a 26 year old who is capable of throwing 180 innings to lead the rotation and Sixto Sanchez, who just a couple years ago was MLB's #6 overall prospect. Shoulder issues the last two years have cratered his value but the kid has talent and could be a winning lottery ticket. And Sanchez is just 24 years old. The Twins deal bats from a surplus and stockpile two, young, talented arms to an already promising stable of young arms.
  11. TopGunn#22

    It Happened!

    TopGunn#22 commented on Cory Moen's blog entry in Cory Moen

    Six years for $200 is great. Lewis and Lee will be major league players in that window and one might end up being a SS. If we end up with 8 years of Correa it will be because GOOD things have happened in the first 6. Correa is a difference maker. I'm enthused. I will applaud the F.O. for getting this done. Still, there's a part of me that can't shake the feeling that our F.O. just kind of lucked out...again. BUT! I'm giving them a thumbs up for sticking with it.
  12. TopGunn#22
    And this is why one of our LH hitting OF'ers and Arraez/Polanco need to be packaged for a solid SP. Gordon could handle 2B. Julien is ready, and I'm anxious to see him get a chance. Correa would settle the entire infield down as the Twins would build around him.
  13. TopGunn#22
    Didn't realize that Canterino was out the entire season. Thanks for clarifying. Still can't get myself to give up on him.
  14. TopGunn#22
    Good points mikelink45, but with Martin being a RH hitter and every OF'er we have not named Buxton being a LH hitter if Martin is playing and hitting well I could see him up by All Star game or before. He could play IF and OF. Wherever they need him. I'm not ready to give up on Balazovic, if he can just stay healthy he could turn a corner rather quickly. But that's a BIG if. Canterino wasn't mentioned either, but if HE can stay healthy he certainly has the stuff to be up sometime this year in a BP capacity. I for one wouldn't mind a trade of Polanco and Larnach to Miami to get one or two young pitchers depending on who the Twins prefer. To me, that kind of move deepens and strengthens the pitching staff while opening a spot for Julien who is the guy I'm most excited to see hitting leadoff or 2nd in our lineup. I think Julien is ready and I'm not afraid of sticking in there and letting him rake. Let's imagine for a moment that the Twins somehow luck out and reel in Correa. This would be a GOOD thing no matter what. Lewis get's all the time he needs to rehab and knock off the rust. If he's ready he can become the primary backup at SS and play other positions as needed. Julien is still the primary 2B-man. Lewis can play some 2B and 3B. Miranda 3B, 1B and DH. And if Brooks Lee rakes (and I think he will) he could be up by September. If all this happens then Farmer becomes depth and we let the kids play and see if any or all of them are up to it. If Correa ends up with the Mets, Farmer backs up Lewis who becomes the everyday SS.
  15. TopGunn#22
    Very good list Ted, but I agree with jmlease, Buxton needs to be here. Of all the Twins players nobody could have a bigger impact than Buxton. If he plays 140-150 games the benefits would be huge.
  16. TopGunn#22
    It's not MY money, but I would be on board with signing Correa. 3 years and $105 million, 10 years, $285-$300 million is O.K. for me. He's a cornerstone player to build around. I'd prefer the shorter deal to see whether Lewis could play SS but I'll take whatever comes of this.
  17. TopGunn#22
    A move for Wacha would not move the needle one bit.
  18. TopGunn#22
    I like the young SS the best. Would also like the Twins to be more aggressive with pitching. So there are only 6. Who's the best one? Is there a sleeper pitcher they could sign under the radar?
  19. TopGunn#22
    Great article !! I agree with mikelink and Dr. Gast that I would add Julien to the list as well as the Canterino, Balazovic and Austin Martin selections. We've had SO MANY injury issues with our prospects that it's hard to limit it to just 5 guys.
  20. TopGunn#22
    Good points and insights Doc Munson. The Twins FO should be far from done. I don't know much about Duran from Texas, but I like your reasoning. I also like Doc Gast's point regarding Guillorme. He's certainly blocked in New York. What would it take to get him? We certainly have a lopsided roster with all these LH hitting corner outfielders. Another possible option for a RH OF bat would be Adam Duval. Very similar to Gallo with good "D" and power, except he's a bit more dependable than Gallo and would be a major upgrade from Garlick. I know it's practically blasphemous to advocate trading Arraez, but even though I'm a fan, his trade value will never be higher and I for one am excited to see Edward Julien at some point. Between Polanco, Gordon and Julien and to a minor degree Arraez we've got plenty of 2B-man. Deal Polanco or Arraez for pitching and include Larnach. I like tony&rodney's targets of Edward Cabrera and Jesus Luzardo. Max Meyer and Pablo Lopez are also good options.
  21. TopGunn#22
    I'm a firm believer that no matter how fun 2019 was for Twins fans, it ruined Rocco as a manager. I agree with the idea that Rocco would hate playing for himself. And this lack of aggression on the basepaths will only be exacerbated by the new rules this year. If this year is another big disappointment as many of us believe it will be, I'd say clean house all around. New FO, new manager, new coaching staff and, heaven forbid it ever comes true, new ownership. Rod Carew and Paul Molitor should be brought in for baserunning "101."
  22. TopGunn#22
    Good Topic. Certainly inspired good responses. I would have only included Lopez from the initial three. If he's anything like he was in Baltimore he's a huge compliment to Duran at the back end. I think he rebounds. I give a high five to Boswell for his comments and to those who mentioned Kirilloff and Larnach as well. We need health in the starting rotation. But the key for the Twins to me is Buxton. If he's healthy and plays 140 games, those that said 35-40HR's and 100 RBI's are correct. He's our most impactful player.
  23. TopGunn#22
    How much would a guy with an electric arm (Alex Reyes) cost the Twins ??
  24. TopGunn#22
    I would sign a LH (Moore or Britton, lean toward Moore). I would package Theilbar and Kepler to the Yanks like BTV has suggested for Domingo German and promising outfield prospect Pierera. German allows Maeda to begin in the BP. Then sign Rosenthal/Alex Reyes. So the Twins would end up with a LH & RH from Moore/Britton and Rosenthal/Reyes. Each has closing experience so Duran doesn't have to should the entire load at the back end. The Twins would still certainly need to employ plenty of their young pitchers throughout the long season, but with a pen like that (and I expect Jorge Lopez to bounce back strongly) we would have depth AND talent.
  25. TopGunn#22
    There is no doubt Joe will get in. But first ballot honors are a high bar. I think he gets in on his 2nd or 3rd try. A great honor for a classy guy.
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