TopGunn#22

I'm hearing persistent rumors that the Padres may be sellers and that Josh Hader could very well be on the block. Using Baseball Trade Values this is a trade that works "value wise" between the Twins and Padres: Padres Get: Jose Miranda 3B/1BD/H 8.9 value and Jorge Polanco 2B 7.3 value. Total Value 16.2. Twins Get: Josh Hader RP 8.3 value and Blake Snell SP 7.4 value. Total Value 15.7. Padres need to upgrade at 2B from Croenenworth. Also need a DH with their release of Cruz. Miranda could also play some 1B. San Diego also off loads salary (they have been spending like drunken sailors with Machado, Darvish, Soto and Bogaerts just to name a few). Twins need another stud in the back end of their BP and Hader is the ultimate stud. The Twins could certainly use a lefty in the rotation and Snell has been outstanding lately. Acquiring Snell could allow the Twins to trade Sonny Gray for a nice return in either prospects or a current player who could help the offense. The Twins are taking on salary here but the return they are getting would be an immediate boost to an already solid pitching staff and possibly open up opportunities to make a deal of two to improve the offense. In a short series, having to face Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Blake Snell and Bailey Ober would not be something other teams would look forward too. Add in Hader and Duran at the end of games and it could be downright miserable. Games would need to be won 2-1 and 3-2 but that's what dominant pitching can accomplish in a shorter, playoff series.

Good points Dman. I agree with everything except that he might be as good or better than than Jenkins. I disagree there. But he certainly has the potential to be a 5-Tool player. His hit tool needs work but he's got the arm of a RF. If Jenkins eventually lands in RF a big arm like Winokur has would be outstanding in LF. An excellent 3rd round choice. I think the Twins were probably "tempted" to take Jack Hurley with their 3rd pick, but after taking 2 OF's decided Keaschall was a better pick for balance. Sure seems like we pick almost exclusively RH pitchers. Finally got a lefty with Dunn.

Many here have expressed their frustration at the Twins offense performance. And to point out it's really been awful since 2020 is spot on. Remove Nelson Cruz from the 2020 lineup and you would have had an offense as putrid as this year's. It is indeed time to tear off the band aid. As Mike Sixel pointed out, other than Buxton (who might not play CF next year either) we don't have an outfielder who will be with us next year. Kepler and Gallo should be traded for anything before the deadline. Certainly neither will be a Twin next year. Solano could be a nice RH bat of the bench for a contender. Get what you can from him and play Kirilloff full time. Once Polanco is activated either trade him right away or hope he gets hot while playing 3B and then trade him because at this point, it's Julien or bust at 2B. We will get WORSE offensively if he is sent down to accommodate Polanco. Larnach is trade bait. Promote Wallner and give him the rest of this year to prove he belongs. Deal Vazquez and promote Camargo. It just didn't work. Include Miranda in a package for prospects or a BP piece. We've seen this anemic offense for FOUR consecutive seasons. Cut bait. Re-rig, and change course.

The Padres might be a seller but they are desperate for a catcher. Package Vasquez in a deal and start playing Jeffers more. Call up Camargo. I'm firmly in the camp the F.O. should be buying and selling. When your starting pitching is as good as the Twins is, you're never out of a game. Right now the lineup is terrible and strikes out far too much. Aside from Duran the only other guys in the BP who have been reliable are Jax (somewhat) and Stewart (currently injured but who should be back end of July). I'm both buying and selling and I'm talking to everybody. Guys like Pham and Bellinger are gettable at a price that won't hurt at all. On BBTV's a guy called The Captain5 proposed the following trade: Twins get: Lane Thomas 27 y/o CF 20.6 value Nats get: David Festa RHP 9.9 DeAndrade SS 2.4 Yasser Mercedes OF 5.6 and Misael Urbina OF 1.2 Total of 19.1. The Twins may have to sweeten this deal since they are a little light but Festa is the only player with any real value and we just drafted Charlee Soto. This deal is a no-brainer if the Nats were willing. If they aren't, what else needs to be added/subtracted to make it work. But this team is a mess right now. Any and ALL changes would be welcome. I'm ready to move on from Rocco. If the Yanks can fire their hitting coach why can't we? We have no use for Kepler, Gallo or Vasquez any longer. We need to get Jeffers more AB's as well as Larnach and Wallner (if Larnach isn't traded). Sonny Gray won't be back. Trade him for a prospect haul or to the Reds for Friedel. Go out and scoop up Blake Snell to replace Gray in the rotation. I'll say this: Gray has pitched tremendously well. But when will he start regressing to the mean of what he is...an above average pitcher but not a top 5 Cy Young candidate. I'd sell high on Gray and replace with a red hot pitcher like Snell. Even though we need bats the padres have two things we could use. A lights out closer in Josh Hader and a red hot LH starting pitcher in Snell. Let's make a deal San Diego !! We need to Buy and Sell. Get to work F.O.

I was thrilled with the first two picks. Gotta admit, I was kind of hoping the Twins would have selected Rochester Century?North Carolina infielder Mac Horvath (who went just a couple picks after Keaschall, but hometown hero aside, I was glad to get a little more familiar with Keaschall after we picked him. He just sounds like a versatile, very good baseball prospect. Day #1 was fantasic. There will be no TV for Day #2 so I'll have to check up on TD several times this afternoon. Thank You for the great write ups and video! Appreciate everything you do for TD.

I tip my hat to Rosterman, who listed a LOT of interesting decisions the Twins F.O. and Rocco need to make.

I have no problem with articles like this. Aren't they the point of a site like Twins Daily?!?? What do we like to do as baseball fans?? Talk baseball!!! It's perfectly fine to debate the Twins trade for Mahle. And it's perfectly fine to admit it was a colossal disaster. Because it WAS! The Twins got virtually nothing out of Mahle who was certainly damaged goods. That's on the F.O. for not being more aware of the physical condition of Mahle. Steer is looking like a pretty solid Major League hitter right now and he has 3B, 2B and now LF versatility. CES, once he ever comes up could be an absolute masher. But with Buxton a full time DH (hopefully just for this season, but who knows) where would the Twins play CES if we hadn't traded him? Everybody makes good trades (A.J. Pierzynski for Nathan and Boof Bonsor) and bad trades (Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio). I can forgive a bad trade here and there. I can't forgive due diligence failing to convince the Twins F.O. that Mahle's physical issues were a red flag. Career wise, on paper, Mahle made sense. But what if the Twins had acquired Blake Snell or Chris Bassitt instead? Then we wouldn't feel as terribly over giving up Steer and CES. Maybe the Twins sign Mahle on the cheap like they did Chris Paddock and it works out O.K. in a year or so and they get SOMETHING out of that trade. But for the last half of 2022 and THIS year, it was a terrible trade because the Twins have nothing to show for it. Miranda has seen his value plummet. It's all the way down to 8.9 on BBTV's. I don't think he has a long term future with the Twins. After getting swept in embarrassing fashion by the Orioles at home before the All Star break, it's hard to see the Twins in any kind of positive light. But they still have the best starting pitching in the A.L. I'm still of a mind they should be buyers AND sellers at the trade deadline. The task of the F.O. is to clean out whatever dead weight they can (Kepler, Gallo, Pagan, Polanco) and leverage whatever young talent they could see as expendable depending on what they get back (Miranda, Larnach, Winder, Austin Martin) to get some bats for the 2nd half of the season (Pham? Bellinger? Friedel? Lane Thomas?) and add punch and dependability to the Bullpen (Hader? Foley? Robertson?). The division is there for the taking. The starting pitching should have them competitive in any playoff game. What pieces can they add now who will help for just the rest of this season (Pham) or could help with an eye on not just 2023 but several years beyond? (Hader). What current trash could they unload (Gallo) and what youth would they be willing to part with to help the team now and in the future? Our F.O. has it's work cut out for it. Are they up to the task? In my opinion, standing pat is not an option. Too much dead weight on this roster and too many holes to just sit there and HOPE everything works out.

Bam !!! Charlee Soto with pick #34. Great pick! The Twins are 2 for 2 so far tonight. Hope we are just as lucky at #49.

That's interesting Seth. If they never really considered anybody but one of the top 5 in that spot I'm glad, but just like the silly season that is the NFL Draft with all it's rumor and misinformation, I'm glad the Twins picked Jenkins. Maybe the MLB is going to become more like the NFL. Although with the talent stacked at the top of THIS YEAR's draft maybe this will be an outlier. Wonder who will be available at #34??

I'm thrilled. I liked Max Clark a little more but all the talk about the Twins getting cute and taking a SS or C instead of going with the clear cut best player had me worried. Clark ended up going 3rd ! Langford went 4th. There sat Walker Jenkins, an excellent average/power prospect with high character and the Twins did the right thing and picked him. I don't care if he's a LH hitting OF. In 2 1/2 years when he's up there may be no sign of Kepler, Gallo, Larnach or Wallner. He's the right pick. he's a GREAT pick!

To add to the disappointment, Steer has actually played some games in LF this year for the Reds. He's not a Gold Glove LF, but imagine his bat in our lineup playing either 3B, 2B or LF. Miranda is limited to 1B and 3B and is considerably challenged at both. He's a future DH if he can become a .270 hitter with an OB% of .340 and gap power that provides 15-20 HR in a typical year. He's a LONG way from that right now but it wouldn't be impossible for him to reach this level. He will never be a guy who can play in the field regularly. Miranda has none of the versatility that Steer has and I have more confidence in Julien at 2B than I do in Miranda at either 1B or 3B. I don't see a future for Miranda in Minnesota if Buxton is more DH than CF. He's not going to beat out Kirilloff at 1B. he's not going to beat out Lewis at 3B. And he's nowhere near the prospect or player that Brooks Lee is, and will be. Miranda is one top 20 prospect along with Larnach that I would consider dealing depending on who I was getting back. Miranda's current BBT-Value is 8.9. Josh Hader's is 8.3. If I could sign Hader for 3 more years (age 30-33 seasons) I'd make that deal one-for-one. When you look at the prospects in our system now and the distinct possibility we add some good talent starting tonight, Miranda's stock has fallen for a reason and he's likely to be passed up by several more prospects. Who would have the bigger positive impact on the Twins for the rest of 2023...Josh Hader or Jose Miranda? Who would have a great positive impact for 2024, 2025 and 2026 if Hader was resigned? It's Hader in a landslide. With all the money/dead weight that should come of this Twins roster next off season the Twins could easily afford Hader. Why would the Padres let him go? Because they see themselves falling further behind the Dodgers and the D-Backs passing them by. Even the Giants are ahead of them with probably half the payroll. San Diego needs a reset.

I don't think the hip issue is that big a deal for Jenkins and I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night!! I like that he's a high character player who is athletic and can HIT. If we have to choose between Clark and Jenkins, I lean Clark because he's a pure CF. If we have our choice of college OF bats Crews or Langford the Twins have won the lottery (literally). I just don't want to see a guy picked for "under slot" reasons when we have over $14 million to work with. If Noble Meyer is there at #34 and we have picked Crews at #5 we can still afford Meyer. And all of us on TD will be happy as can be.

Gonzalez would be a huge blunder and shines a spotlight on the "trying to outsmart everybody" worry when there is no need to. If the first 4 go as listed just take a high character, extremely talented guy like Walker Jenkins. As I've mentioned before, we don't need to sign someone "under slot" at #5. We have over $14 million to spend on our picks. Taking one of the "consensus" top 5 and then picking Noble Meyer at #34 would be fantastic. Don't screw this up!!

I think they should both buy and sell. Deal whatever dead weight you won't have next season, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco-(because Polanco still has value) and you've got Julien, Farmer, Castro and Lewis. I agree that they shouldn't trade anybody top 20. But I would if it brought back Hader and my plan was to extend him. Get a couple of bats...I've suggested Bellinger and Pham. Goldschmidt would be nice but cost too much prospect wise. Get a stud like Hader in the pen and someone cheap from the previously stated RP's and make a go of it. With a starting staff like this it would be criminal to just sit on your hands. Actively pursue opportunities to both buy and sell.

I can't disagree that the offense has been pathetic. But after tying the game last night, Rocco tapped Duran and he promptly lost the game. Our BP needs more depth. Assuming neither Gray or Maeda are dealt, you add Pham, Bellinger and Hader for what I outlined earlier and you've added two bats that are upgrades to what we currently have (and Gold Glove defense in the case of Bellinger) and one of the 3 best closers in baseball in Hader. Not only would the Twins win the division but they would have their best chance of not only breaking the curse of zero playoff wins since the "W" Bush administration, but actually WINNING a playoff series. If I trade for Hader though, I'm doing everything I can to keep him for 3 or 4 years.

Mike, YES! I'd trade six years of Winder and six years of Headrick for Hader. But I'd make sure I'd sign Hader for another 3 years. Hader is only 29. He's money in the bank at the back of your BP. Extending Hader is crucial to making a deal. Pham is a 3 month rental. Not coming back in 2024 for sure. By then either Larnach or Wallner is entrenched in a corner OF spot. Bellinger is a "maybe" for an extension, depending on how he plays for us and how expensive retaining him would be. He becomes much more necessary depending on Buxton's ability to play CF. But a guy who's a Gold Glove caliber CF and 1B could certainly plug a lot of holes for the Twins. A lot of money could/should be coming off the books for 2024 Gray, Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Taylor, Maeda, Mahle, and a lot of young talent will be playing for minimum salaries Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, Moran, Stewart, Jeffers and maybe Brooks Lee. The Twins make a deal for Hader to keep him. So yes, to get a stud like Hader I gladly give up Winder and Headrick. heck, I'd give up a little more if I had to. Hader and Duran at the end of a game would be lethal. And remember, there still is this sliver of thought that Duran could still become a SP. Pham and Bellinger would be nice acquisitions with some uncertainty. Hader leaves nothing in doubt. You want to win that game with a one run lead? Hader rarely fails.

All I can see on Pham is that he was stabbed in the lower back outside of a strip club and he tussled with Joc Peterson about Fantasy Football. He's 35 years old this season and in 200 AB's is hitting .280 with an OPS of .850. He's stolen 10 bases in 11 tries. Sounds a LOT like Shannon Stewart (minus the stab in the back). He's a RH hitting LF. His BBTV is .80. The Twins could get him for a Keoni Cavaco .90 type of value. No-brainer. If the Mets sell, buy him. Bellinger's offense may be real, it may be a mirage. He could start walking more and hitting with more power (like he used to) or not. Still, a Gold Glove LH hitting CF hitting .290 wouldn't be a bad guy to have the rest of the season if Buxton is a DH only. He could platoon with Taylor. Bellinger's value is only 1.1 but he's being paid $16 million. Kepler's value is 1.2 and he's being paid somewhere between $10-$12 million. I swap him for Kepler and eat the salary the rest of the season. Kepler is actually a slight overpay and saves the Cubs some money. Hader would be dynamite at the back end with Duran. Imagine what our "Power Pen" would look like if Jorge Lopez got back in the groove, Stewart comes back throwing 98 mph, Jax, Theilbar and Moran perform up to expectations. Hader's BBTV is 8.3. and he's 29 years old. Winder's value is 5.8 (26 years old) Gallo's is 2.7 (or substitute Headrick at 2.4) and you've got a fair deal. The Twins take on Hader's salary. We have the best starting staff in the A.L. A couple of bold moves to really move the needle.

I said before the season started that he was the key guy in our pen. Being able to consistently lock down the 8th and get a save or two when Duran can't go is essential for the Twins BP to succeed. He's got GREAT "stuff." He's an easy guy to cheer for. I hope he can put all this behind him and go out and play like he's capable of. Because when he's good...he's VERY GOOD.

To me, Skenes is the #1 overall prospect and should at minimum be pitching out of someone's bullpen this season. He doesn't need to start off at AA. Get that arm into the big leagues now. If he fell to #5 SPRINT to the podium!!

I think the consensus here is not to overthink this and just take whoever is left at #5, whether that is Max Clark, Walker Jenkins or even Paul Skenes. If the Twins just stick with the conventional logic, they should end up with a great prospect. The idea that we might take someone OTHER than one of the top 5 rated players in a bid to save money for a guy who falls to #34 though is misguided. The Twins already have a BOATLOAD of money. Over $14 million dollars to sign their draft class. They could pick any of those top 5 players, pay them whatever the slot is and have PLENTY of money left to go over slot on their next 2 picks if the right player/players fell to them. The Twins are really in a GREAT spot here. They are picking 5th in a draft that has been analyzed as a 5 player draft at the top. They have over $14 million to work with and they have two more picks within the top 50. DON'T SCREW THIS UP! This is a golden opportunity to restock our minor league system with some great talent/potential. Personally, I'd love to get Skenes at #5. That's highly unlikely. But I'd be very happy with either Clark or Jenkins at #5. I lean toward Clark only because he's a pure CF and I have a grandson named Max.

I would love a Max Clark selection. If he gets picked by Texas then the Twins have a real decision to make. Walker Jenkins, the other prep outfielder? Or someone like Lowder, Dollander or Teel. I just hope we get Max.

I thought the end of the article hinted that if he was there at #34 the Twins would pounce. That makes more sense to me. I see a bat being drafted at #5 unless Skenes somehow falls to the Twins there. Skenes is the only pitcher I could see the Twins considering if he falls to them. I'm still leaning toward the draft being chalk for the first 4 picks and the Twins picking Max Clark who will be their CF of the future. We NEED a legit CF prospect and Clark would not only be the best available player but would check a needed box.

The Twins have a stretch of games where they could put together a mini winning streak and actually open a 4-5 game lead in the division. That's the minimum I think they need to do before deciding to be buyers. But they really need to see if Correa and Buxton can start hitting. The other key piece in my estimation is Jorge Lopez. He's that 8th inning guy and sometimes closer if Duran isn't available. Will he be 2022 pre-All Star break Jorge Lopez when he comes back? Or will he continue to struggle? They REALLY need him to be the "good" and "reliable" Jorge Lopez. I could actually see our FO being a little of both buyers and sellers. Polanco still has value and depending on what a team needs and will actually give up to get him, I'd have him at the top of my "sell" list. Since Larnach is still more prospect than big league player, he'd be at the top of my sell a "prospect" to add a RH bat/bullpen piece. Sonny Gray is interesting. He's been very good but will surely not be with the Twins next season. Is he moved for prospects or more in a Gray for Goldy type deal...veteran for veteran. Or do they just ride him until the end of the season. Can Gray keep this up? Or will he regress somewhat to who he's been his entire career. This division is so bad that a sub .500 record might just win it. But the White Sox and Guardians might just make moves to bolster their teams and the Tigers are on the cusp of having Eduardo Rodriguez and Tarik Skubel rejoin their rotation. Those two lefties could give the Tigers a huge boost. I don't expect the 2nd half of the season to be a cakewalk for the twins even though they have the most talented roster in the division.

He has great potential and as fans it's always nice to dream. What is his projected timetable to advance above Cedar Rapids? It's the same question Twins fans would have for Brooks Lee...when is he coming to St. Paul? Do you need to DOMINATE a level before moving up or do you just need to show steady improvement and better consistency?

I hope they don't try to get too cute with that #5 pick. But #34 is interesting. If you look at a bunch of guys in the #22-#30 range there are a lot of 3B/1B type college bats that seem to be elite hitting prospects. Kind of like Torkelson without all the #1 pick hype. Torkelson has struggled, but he's starting to figure it out and I'm curious what his 2nd half numbers will look like and how he starts 2024. The key is to get a bat more like Torkelson and not like Sabato. One kid that intrigues me but who is NOT in this year's draft is White, the LSU 3B. He just really impressed me with his approach and power during the CWS. I would prefer taking a hitter like that at #34-#60 if I was looking for an elite hitter with a 3B/1B defensive future.