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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. TopGunn#22
    The idea of Paddock being available in the BP as well as moving Maeda and Keuchel there once we hit post season (Lopez, Gray and Ryan would be the starters, Ober as well if they give him some time to rest and get back on track). Throw Stewart into the mix and you have flame throwers mixed with crafty pitchers that could be just the medicine the Twins need. Castro coming back will probably displace Luplow. Kirilloff coming back SHOULD displace Gallo (finally). Buxton coming back (??) who knows who goes? I agree 110% with JD-Twins...they need Kirilloff!!! Hitting 3rd, 4th or 5th, if Kirilloff is healthy and "right" he's an impact bat that could be huge for the Twins. Especially with Lewis back. There is a LOT of talent sitting on the sidelines for the Twins. Getting these guys healthy was basically the trade deadline strategy of the F.O.
  2. TopGunn#22
    If Joe Ryan looks to be pre-All Star Break Joe Ryan, he's in my starting rotation in the playoffs. The guy who's had tremendous success being moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen in the postseason is Maeda. If the Twins have Maeda and Keuchel in the BP for the playoffs they should have more certainty for performance and better production.
  3. TopGunn#22
    No, he'll be a Dodger or a Yankee. I think Ohtani is a tremendous hitter who also happens to be a very good pitcher. His value WILL take a hit as all he will be able to play is DH. But he will have a "prime" Nelson Cruz year as a floor for a hitter. That kind of production is the foundation for a great, run scoring lineup. It would be beyond fun to have him but it's Dodger Blue or Pinstripes for Ohtani. Nobody will outbid them. The Twins will have money to play with but a lot of youthful uncertainty and veteran mystery. Gray will be tough to replace. I can't believe I'm saying this on 8/27/23 but Pagan will also be a challenge to replace. Imagine if the Twins had added a BP arm at the deadline that would be doing what Pagan has been doing since just before the All Star break? We could have win last night rather than see Jax give the game away. The Twins will need to plug a lot of holes, and Ohtani doesn't plug enough of them to justify the expenditure.
  4. TopGunn#22
    I think LA Vikes has accurately pegged the value of Maeda. I think he COULD have a spot, but I'm not getting into a bidding war for a 36 year old, oft injured-needs time off for "maintenance" pitcher whose future is in the BP and not the starting rotation. He's certainly more Kyle Gibson than Max Scherzer. Someone else had the idea of incentives like holds and saves being built into a contract offer. I like that. He's not your prototypical 8th inning 100 mph power pitcher, but he could certainly stabilize the back end of our BP there. I see his future in the BP not the rotation.
  5. TopGunn#22
    I could see the 6 man rotation being a good move through the rest of the season. Certainly with a 5 game lead the Twins have the cushion to give it a try. I just don't want to see SP removed from a game they are pitching well in at the 73 or 78 pitch mark "just because." Once the post season rolls around, provided Joe Ryan is back to pre All Star Game form (and that's a big "if") I would go with Gray, Lopez, Ryan and Ober as the SP and move Maeda and Keuchel to the BP. The Dodgers were very successful using Maeda as a SP in the regular season and moving him to the BP come post season. His postseason pitching stats are outstanding, primarily as a BP pitcher.
  6. TopGunn#22
    Interesting viewpoint. It's shocking what has happened to the Rays this season what with all the injuries to SP's. But the biggest shock is the situation with their cornerstone player. It's hard to imagine Franco's Major League career being over, but it's certainly a possibility. Boy, wouldn't it have been nice to have added a solid 8th inning/occasional closer type of arm at the deadline...Still, with the SP the Twins have, anything is possible if you get to the playoffs.
  7. TopGunn#22
    Yeah, I was fine with and understood all the comments until RpR. I wouldn't mind locking some of our young talent up. But as has been pointed out, Lewis is much older than the Braves young stars or Franco of T-Bay. I think guys like Walker Jenkins, Lee and maybe Rodriguez will fall into this category if they show superstar potential. Lewis and Kirilloff, due to their injuries, have missed this bus.
  8. TopGunn#22
    Thanks jmlease!! That also helps put into perspective the season Jim Thome had with just 340 AB's that FireDanGladden mentioned.
  9. TopGunn#22
    The youth movement has begun and will continue...and it's exciting! I don't see Lee moving out of the IF and I don't see Martin remaining IN the IF. Look for a permanent move to CF/LF by Martin. Julien should start learning 1B and get an OF glove and get familiar with LF. I see the IF next year having Correa at SS and Kirilloff at 1B, Lewis will be at 3B/2B with Brooks Lee pushing for whatever position Lewis doesn't play. Polanco could possibly be at 2B but might well be dealt even if his final year option is picked up. Kepler has certainly earned his final year option being picked up so he's in RF to begin 2024. Buxton will either be in CF or it will be Martin. Wallner will be a corner OF with Larnach traded and Gallo gone to wherever. A lot of this depends on how Brooks Lee develops. He's either going to be a September callup this season or he will finish the year and playoffs with the Saints. But next season he comes to spring training with a big opportunity to make some noise. The pitching staff has some youth but there will be holes to fill with the departures of Sonny Gray and Maeda. I could see either a Blake Snell type FA signing or another "Arraez like" trade for a young SP. Varland and Paddock are Wild Cards and possible lottery tickets and depth. At least ONE quality BP arm needs to be added in FA that has 8th inning lockdown talent and closing capability to give Duran an occasional break.
  10. TopGunn#22
    Yeah, Carew's MVP 1977 season was something else. I would include Nelson Cruz in 2019 to go with Killebrew's 1969 MVP season. As good as Tony O's 1964 ROY season was, his 1970 season might have been his best. Joe Mauer in 2009 with his 365 BA and 28 HR's could almost go in a special category for catchers. But I would like to see where Nelson Cruz 2019 version would rank with Carew. If you're only comparing offensive numbers (since Cruz was strictly a DH) I wonder how close he would come to Carew's 1977.
  11. TopGunn#22
    Other than the obvious guys like Buxton & Kiriloff (Castro too) I would/could see Funderburk and Martin.
  12. TopGunn#22
    I agree, the Twins most certainly will pick up his option. They will say goodbye to Joey Gallo and probably trade Larnach with the emergence of Matt Wallner. That will go a long way toward relaxing the log jam of LH hitting corner OF. The F.O. has a lot more work to do, but those moves seem quite logical and quite probable once the season ends.
  13. TopGunn#22
    I have been confounded by the Twins BP strategy all season. In fact, pretty much since the beginning of the Rocco era and by extension the FO. Why Funderberk hasn't been brought up is beyond a mystery. I have said and will continue to maintain, that Rocco's biggest failing as a manager is his bullpen strategy (or what seems to be a woeful LACK of a strategy). Winder was a trade piece that could have been used to bring back something of value for the BP at the trade deadline. Having Sands on the roster is baffling when you consider his lack of usage. There is no question the FO and manager know more than we do. Yet some of their moves (Gallo instead of Duval) or lack of moves (Funderberk, Henriquez) just leave me shaking my head.
  14. TopGunn#22
    I don't know about Sabato, Nashville. Seven HR's for a bat first/1B/DH draft pick at this stage of the season and of his minor league career to date with the Twins just doesn't cut it with me. He's a lot like Enlow. Just nothing to show for optimism going forward for as long as they've been in the system. I agree about Larnach. They should have dealt him last year when he still had some value. The Twins FO will never come up with a convincing argument that the signing of Gallo had any logic behind it. There are some strengths to this Twins team but holes galore. There is not a level that won't see some kind of major turnover this off season. Starting pitching: Where do Gray and Maeda end up? At least one FA signing (Blake Snell?) will be needed to go along with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock, and Varland. How does that measure up with the further development of Raya, Balazovic and SWR?? The bullpen outside of Duran and Jax is a huge question mark. How much will a 36 y/o Theilbar have left? Stewart, Floro, Alcala, Moran Pagan etc...that's not looking that promising right now. Who will be in our OF? Who will be in our IF?? Will there be solid bounce back seasons from Correa and Buxton? Outside of Jeffers and Vasquez returning behind the plate there seem to be more questions than answers for this team looking ahead to 2024. Is our FO capable of steering this ship? Clearly, Rocco is NOT the equal of someone like Terry Francona. But is Rocco good enough? Or is a change needed there? Something is just not clicking with this coaching staff. Does Rocco need to clean house? Or do the Twins FO need to clean house in one last try to save their own jobs? Should be an interesting off season. And I wouldn't over emphasize what happens in the post season (should they eventually stumble and bumble their way into the playoffs) when deciding what needs to be done for 2024.
  15. TopGunn#22
    Excellent, in depth article. He simply MUST perfect and command a sweeper or a curve ball. Otherwise, he's really just a relief pitcher with a limited pitch mix. THAT'S what separates SP's from RP's. Command and usage of multiple pitches versus a "limited" repertoire. We KNOW he's a Starting Pitcher. He's demonstrated that. The IL stint will help but Maki has to help him add a breaking pitch and instill in Ryan the confidence to use it...often. (or at least MORE often). Otherwise, we're going to see more of the same.
  16. TopGunn#22
    Can't see that I would disagree with this unless they filled Gallo's spot with Larnach or Gordon.
  17. TopGunn#22
    It sure does seem like the promotion of Lee took too long but glad to see it finally happen. Agree...don't mess with that kids swing. The power will come as he fills out. Doubles are just fine right now. That double to LF by Jenkins is classic hitting. Don't mess too much with that kid either. The Twins really fortified St. Paul with their 3 promotions and than resupplied Cedar Rapids. They had to open up some slots for the young'ens!
  18. TopGunn#22
    The Joe Ryan we have seen since June & July is nowhere near the pitcher he was for April and May. Something is off. He certainly could use some time off. Whether that's skipping one start or a couple with a 10-day IL stint. However, the Keuchel opportunity no longer exists so do we call up Varland to take those starts? This is a team on a ship that is lost at sea with no apparent destination. Gaping holes in the lineup abound. Five left hand hitting corner outfielders wander about the deck longing for a cool breeze. The pitchers are suffering with scurvy and the captain of the ship decided that trading Jorge Lopez for Dylan Floro was the answer. Even with Cleveland conceding us the division at the trade deadline (just for good measure, the White Sox threw in the towel too) I can't help but wonder that in the mismatch it is between Rocco's managerial abilities and Francona's, that Cleveland will somehow find a way to beat us out.
  19. TopGunn#22
    I've had high hopes for Matt Canterino for what seems like forever. Like Doc Bauer, I would love to see him be a part of the rotation, but his future and his soonest contributions to the big league club will probably come out of the bullpen. He doesn't throw quite as hard as Duran (who does?) but his breaking pitches seem to be better and more consistent (at least from what I've read about him when he HAS been able to pitch. Thanks for the article and best of luck to Matt !!
  20. TopGunn#22
    When Cleveland traded Civale they essentially conceded the division to the Twins. I would be sellers much the way Cleveland is. They gave up a solid #3 starter and got a heck of a hitter back who is very close a full time spot in the majors. I'd deal Sonny Gray for the biggest haul I could get. Would the Reds part with a young OF?? I'd move Maeda if the deal was right. I'd get Varland back up and in the rotation. Anyone from the major league roster Polanco, Kepler, Gallo, Taylor, Gordon and including Larnach and Miranda I'd listen on, Start the revamping of this roster NOW.
  21. TopGunn#22
    I don't trade Raya for Hader. But I DO trade Miranda for Hader. The Pads have nobody at 1B any good and a little uncertainty at 3B with Machado and at DH. The biggest difference maker on the trade market to me is Hader. For all his talent, Duran, like last night, just isn't at the consistent level of someone like Hader. But the two of them at the end of games would be dominating. With all the payroll leaving our roster next year maybe at 29 years old Hader would be worth the price. If it cost me a Larnach/Winder to acquire Lane Thomas I'd do it. Thomas fits in LF or RF (maybe even a little CF) for the rest of this season and beyond. Thomas is breaking through and would be a solid RH bat in a lineup where our strength is LH hitting.
  22. TopGunn#22
    I'm with you on this Doc. A deal involving Lane Thomas of the Nats would excite me more and the assets you mentioned could be in play. I'm not against a Renfro addition, it would just depend on the cost. It's time to move on from Solano and Gallo. Neither one has a future with the Twins beyond this season and with Polanco and Lewis coming back Solano has no place. I also firmly believe that the Twins have Farmer in their plans for 2024. Solid "D" at SS, 2B & 3B and a dependable bat. What's going to be interesting to me, is how Polanco settles in at 3B. If he's O.K. there, I could see him playing there next year. His value has cratered from a high somewhere between 45 and 36 on BBTV's to just 8.5. Unless someone blows the Twins away with a trade it's better to hang onto him for the rest of this year and see what the off season brings.
  23. TopGunn#22
    Spot on Ted. And it's NOT just for 2023. Buxton's long term future in CF is in doubt. Look, even when Buxton is "healthy" it's like playing Russian Roulette with his availability. For the rest of this year, Lewis in CF makes waaaaay to much sense. For 2024 and beyond, well, that's a tougher question. Polanco is a solid bat and his clutch RBI double last night just accentuates his importance to our lineup. I don't see any BIG trades for the Twins at the deadline, but I would like to see them buy as well as sell on the edges. I'd be willing to move Miranda and Larnach as a package or in separate deals to add someone who could help now (Josh Hader) and/or who could help beyond 2023 (Lane Thomas). But to completely write off any chance Lewis could play in CF, RF or LF for the remainder of this year isn't wise. They need his bat in their lineup. They need Julien's bat in their lineup. And they need Polanco's bat in their lineup. No one on TD has presented evidence that CF is a position that far more people get injured playing. I just think Lewis wants to play and contribute. For the rest of 2023, that should be in CF.
  24. TopGunn#22
    Like Doc Gast said, the time to trade Larnach was when his value was higher. He's gone from a BBTV's high of 30.4 to his present value of 3.7. Hader is valued at 2.9 and is a 29 year old FA at season's end. If the Padres would accept a Larnach for Hader deal I'd do it in a heartbeat. Trevor will never hit breaking balls. I give the 26 year old OF up for the best RP in baseball in my opinion, even if he's just a rental. But I'd do everything I could within reason to bring Hader back. Gallo should be DFA'd or find a team that we can get an A ball player for him. Kepler, at this point isn't going anywhere. 2024 is a different story. With Walker Jenkins and E-Rod a ways off, I see Royce Lewis in LF or CF next season as a distinct possibility. Polanco is like Larnach in that his value has fallen from about 36.0 (it was as high as 45) to 8.5 on BBTV's. The HUGE difference is that Polanco has shown he can hit. AND he's a SH. Always valuable in a lineup. But with Julien, Brooks Lee and Lewis where exactly does Polanco fit? With the departures of Gray, Maeda and Mahle from the pitching staff and our lopsided position player situation I think you could see a massive overhaul of the Twins roster next season. It's why I think they need to buy AND sell at the deadline.
  25. TopGunn#22
    I'll go a little different direction. Instead of a trade let's look at a couple guys who were released who still had a lot more "juice" than the Twins were expecting. First, let's look at Luis Tiant. The twins traded Craig Nettles, Dean Chance and Ted Uelander to Cleveland for him prior to the 1970 season. In 1968 Tiant was dominant going 16-8 with and ERA well below 2.00. In 1969 he started having some health issues so the Guardians shipped him to the Twins at seasons end. Tiant still wasn't "right" but went 7-3 for the Twins with a 3.50 ERA in 1970. We let him go and the Red Sox scooped him up, let him get healthy and he came back with a vengeance in 1972 and won 20 games a couple times for the Red Sox. The Twins should have been more patient with him. The other is Jim Kaat. Kitty had been one of the most consistent pitchers in Twins history and was lights out in 1972 going 10-2 with a 2.07 ERA by the All Star break, but he began having health problems, something he had never experienced before and in the off season the Twins cut him loose. He landed with the White sox and won 20 games a couple times for them as well before bouncing around to several teams as his career wound down. Again, the Twins should have been more patient. They could have had several more productive years from Kaat if Calvin wasn't just trying to save a buck all the time.
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