TopGunn#22

Neither Paddock nor Varland will "replace" what Sonny Gray gave the Twins this season. Don't misunderstand what I'm saying here. Both Paddock and Varland could and will probably be pretty good next season...but not Sonny Gray level good. The Twins should be able to expect some level of improvement from Ryan and Ober but they can't count on it. Lopez will be our #1 and he'll be fine. Nicksaviking is right. The best thing our FO did this last off season was establishing tremendous depth in the rotation. And we needed it. Ryan, Ober, Maeda all spent time on the I.L. Paddock looks very good but he's several years away from a full season of starting. I would like to see them make a deal for a SP. It just depends on who and what the cost would be. Prediction: I think Sonny Gray struggles to come close to replicating his 2023 with the Twins. I like the idea of looking into Eduardo Rodriguez as a LH in the rotation, but he turned down the deadline deal to the Dodgers and with the Tigers improving I can't see them trading him to us. Blake Snell would be fantastic. But he will be coming off a CY Young season and as you saw the Dodgers post season starting staff in tatters and the Cardinals prowling for pitching this off season I just can't see the Twins winning a free agent bidding war for Snell. So while we certainly could benefit from a LH starter, I just can't see either Snell or Ed Rod. ending up with the Twins. So who else is there? Brandon Woodruff could be available from the Brewers but he'd be expensive. Still, he's been a horse his entire career except this season, and when he was able to pitch he was every bit the Stud he's been and he would probably be an improvement on Sonny Gray. But he wouldn't come cheap. If Frankie Montas is healthy maybe the Yankees would foolishly give up on him for a young LH slugger like Wallner or Larnach? There is always the possibility they sign Mahle to a cheap-team friendly 2 year contract and he's ready to go sometime in May-early June. If Mahle is healthy he's a solid #3 type SP. As was discussed in another thread, the Twins are in a really solid position with young prospects already contributing like Lewis, Julien, Kiriloff, Wallner, and guys like Brooks Lee, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins knocking on the door. They could win the A.L. Central Division for the next 5-6 seasons. But each off season it will be crucial the FO makes the right decisions on how to construct the roster and bring along prospects. They failed miserably by signing Gallo with a plethora of LH hitting corner OF and 1B already on the roster. Signing one solid bullpen arm going into the 2023 season would have helped a LOT in the regular season. They struck gold with signings like Taylor, Castro and Farmer and the trade for Lopez. They whiffed on the Vasquez signing. It's a mixed bag and no FO ever hits on every move. They need someone they count count on to play CF and that should be a top priority going into the off season so acquiring another SP may need to wait until that gaping hole is filled. Maybe Buxton will be "relatively" healthy next year, but they can't count on him. I expect Correa to bounce back and have a much better year at the plate. The future looks promising and nothing makes a promising future more likely in baseball than a deep and talented starting pitching staff. The Twins should look at any and all possibilities to add to and deepen their already promising starting rotation.

Brock is right pointing out the lack of pitching the Orioles have. The Dodgers have the same problem. I thought the Dodgers would get knocked out by the Brewers because of the Brewers superior pitching. Then Corbin Burnes laid a game #1 egg and Brandon Woodruff couldn't pitch. Texas sweeping Baltimore really isn't that big of a surprise and neither is the D-Backs rubbing the Dodgers nose in the dirt. The D-Backs simply have better starting pitching than the Dodgers do at this point. Also consider how close Philly was to putting their boot on the Braves neck before Austin Riley stepped up and quashed that dream. Philly still has the hammer in their hand with Aaron Nola on the mound facing an "undecided" Braves starter so that also shows the precarious position the Braves post season is in already. Remember, they had a first round bye. They should have known who their game #3 starter would be all along. For Pete's Sake, just put Charlie Morton out there, he's the best they have left. The Twins really squandered an opportunity yesterday with Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray simply didn't rise to the occasion but he would have had to win 1-0. Despite being gifted with 7 walks the generous Twins hitters responded with 13 strikeouts. I can almost accept the struggles of Wallner but for the life of me I can't figure out what's wrong with Kirilloff. He's just too good a young hitter to look SO lost at the plate. The Astros are sending the eminently hittable Jose Urquidy to the mound tonight. He's a RH pitcher, so you'd expect to see Kirilloff and Wallner back in there. But one has to wonder...

Very interesting take Hans. Your larger point is well taken: The Braves are REALLY good right now and will still be for at least a couple more years. The Twins won a weak division this year and even though Cleveland and probably the Tigers will improve next year, the Twins have a solid foundation to move forward with. Lewis has the look of a future All Star and Franchise Player. Julien and Jeffers look like they will be solid for years to come. Correa should bounce back to a much more "Correa like" season next year. The pitching staff has a solid core to build around. The opportunity to put themselves in a position to win multiple division titles in a row exists. But each and every off season going forward will have it's challenges. Who will replace Gray and Maeda in the rotation next year? Who will be our CF for 150 games? (it sure as heck won't be Buxton). What one arm could we add to our bullpen to handle the 8th inning and close when Duran is not available? The Twins have LOTS of bullpen options which should provide for a deeper and better BP next year, but they still need that ONE arm at the end of a game in addition to Duran. Could that arm be Matt Canterino? Possibly. But he's kind of like Buxton at this point, you just can't count on him. Each off season will have it's challenges. How does our FO meet those challenges? The Braves lost Freddie Freeman arguably the heart and soul of their team. They went out and got Matt Olson. But you are spot-on in pointing out the solid foundation the FO has built for the Twins. They should be a playoff team for years to come.

It's a rather uninteresting mix of players. Cossetti I've heard of. Sabato as well. The others, with the possible exception of Jordan Carr (who I THINK I've heard of) I don't recall reading much about them and I pretty much read the minor league report every week. The only reason I can see Sabato is there is to showcase him for a possible off season trade. At 1 for 17 with 32 K's (sarcasm) I don't think anyone will be interested. I'd rather hear about what's going on with Walker Jenkins and some of the pitchers we drafted along with him.

Ryan for Cruz was great. A young SP with talent for an aging DH. Pressley was tough in hindsight just because we've gotten very little from either prospect. Alcala may still turn out but probably not Celestino. Gray for Petty indeed took chutzpah! And I'd do it 100 out of 100 times. It will be even better if we can secure Gray for a few more years but still a win. Also, in hindsight, Paddock and Pagan for Taylor Rogers has worked out pretty nicely. I was a little surprised the price was so high for Mahle. BOTH Steer and CES in addition to a young pitching prospect was a LOT. Especially with all the injuries Mahle dealt with and his lack of positive impact. But Mahle was a solid #3 SP and at the time I was on board with it. If the Twins bring Mahle back on a very team friendly deal and Mahle, as a result of that deal is able to give the Twins a couple of 12-13 win seasons it would be a completely different outcome. But that ship has probably sailed so I'd consider that deal, with the projected future contributions of Steer and CES for the Reds a bad trade.

We are in pretty good shape coming home with Sonny Gray set to start. At least "on paper." For all those who hated and maybe still hate the Arraez trade, this is why the Twins had to do it. Lopez has been OUTSTANDING in the playoffs. The Twins had Polanco, Julien, Lewis and fast rising Brooks Lee. (you could even add Nick Gordon to that list based on his 2022 season). With Gray almost sure to leave (I'd love to see the Twins come up with a way to keep him) they are going to need to make a similar trade this off season. In addition to Gray, Maeda is probably moving on. Varland and Paddock will be counted on to step up, but you need more than 5 starters. Nobody makes it through an entire season without at least one stint on the I.L. Reviews of ball and strike calls in the Twins two game sweep of the Blue Jays showed the Twins were on the short end of calls that cost them over 2 and a half runs. The Twins are currently on the short end by almost 3 runs in the Astro series after 2 games (the corners of the plate for Verlander and Valdez have been HUGE, not so much for Twins hitters). This data is from reviewing the consistency (or lack thereof) of ball and strike calls in relation to the "pitch box." In other words, the Twins are getting hosed. This is why, despite the fact that I'm a baseball traditionalist, I'm looking forward to the eventual phasing out of home plate umps calling balls and strikes. The called 3rd strike on Castro on an inside pitch by Verlander in game #1 was terrible. Polanco should have hit a grand slam. Lewis should have followed up with a game tying HR. That one call changed the trajectory of that game. I'm looking forward to Aaron Judge, Mookie Betts or whoever, not "getting" the borderline call.

I think they are monitoring Buxton daily and we haven't seen the last of post-season roster tinkering if they are able to advance. As you've all been discussing though, just what do you get with this version of Buxton? Nothing he's done this year indicates anything positive. Despite a horrible batting average, low OB% and too many strikeouts, Taylor at least hit 20 HR's, stole over 20 bases (something Buxton has done once? twice?) and Taylor has played GREAT defense. (something Buxton has always done). I'm just not sure how beneficial having Byron would be. That said, no matter how this season turns out, I don't think Taylor ever comes close to what he did this year and Buxton cannot be counted on for anything in the future. This front office must come up with a long-term plan for CF for 2024 and beyond.

I agree DC, there were some VERY questionable called 3rd strikes on Twins hitters. Especially on Castro which would have loaded the bases prior to Polanco's HR. I can't wait for fully "robot" strike zones.

As soon as he did it, I was wondering if hitting 2 HR's in his first two post season AB's was a record. I had forgotten that Gaetti had done it in 1987! (WHAT KIND OF TWINS FAN AM I)???? And that Evan Longoria had also done it. Ironic that the club is exclusively 3B so far. Not sure what primary position Lewis will play in 2024 but he's certainly a 3B for 2023.

I really think Ober has earned the right to start game #1. Ryan has been far too shaky, that's obvious, but Ober has flat out earned it. Lopez and Gray in games #2 & #3 and then a Ryan/Maeda game #4. Ryan starts and maybe only goes 3 innings, possibly 4. Maeda gives you 2 or 3 innings. Finally, Lopez for game #5 if necessary. They have to keep Funderburk. When you have KH hitters like Tucker & Alvarez you need a LH to face them. You just can't go into a series with Houston with only ONE LH pitcher on your entire staff (much less the BP). In this scenario, I'm dropping Stevenson. We will also have to deal with the Buxton speculation for this next round. Did the last 3 days help him get any healthier? I doubt it, but I'm sure the speculation will bubble up. The starting pitching and bullpen has been outstanding so far but Houston, with hitters like Altuve, Bergman, Tucker, and Alvarez will be a challenge. And McCormick and Diaz have been solid for them (and Brantley is back). The Astro starting pitching hasn't been as dominant as in years past so hopefully our lineup hits better than the Toronto series. Nice to have put them away in 2 games so the staff is as fresh as could be expected. Nice to see that Rocco is using Stewart and Varland ahead of some of the shakier options he's had in the pen too.

Good to know the injuries to Correa and Duran are not serious. I would start Ober in Game one on his standard 5-days rest. I think Ryan's last 3 starts were unimpressive enough that Ober has EARNED the ball to start the game. I still think Ryan could be effective in an inning or two of relief, but at this point, based on who is throwing well and who isn't, our 3 SP should be Lopez, gray and OBER.

Varland came in and threw 2 pitches and the inning ended and then Theilbar came out to start the next inning. I will never quite understand the strategy of warming a pitcher up (and a VALUED pitcher you're going to rely on in the playoffs) having him throw 2 pitches, end the inning, and then remove him from the game even if a LH hitter was leading the next inning off. I'm just too old school to believe that a good pitcher can get a good hitter out regardless of the splits. THIS is why teams carry so many pitchers in the playoffs, even in a 3 game series.

They stayed away from his split finger fastball which just dives and normally induces a LOT of swings and misses. Gausman was pitching from behind in the count, running uphill from the first at bat with Julien. Twins hitters had a good scouting report/game plan and it worked. I've been saying in conversations about what our post season roster would/should look like that Royce Lewis is the "X" factor. The kid just has a knack, kind of like Kirby Puckett did. Hopefully Royce's hammy can hold up through the post season. I sure hop they win today because I'm not sure I trust Ryan to win a game #3 if needed.

I hope Rocco doesn't fall for the LH relief pitcher coming in early and PH for Julien and/or Kirilloff early. Leave them in. The "leverage situation" bullpen arms for the Blue Jays are all RH. I like how we've stacked our bullpen. Would LOVE to win in 2 because I don't trust Ryan at this point either. Ober should have beaten him out for SP #3.

I agree, Lewis is our "X" factor. Of all the players we are wondering about as the post season begins, he is the most vital. I don't know what to think of Buxton. The fact that there is considerable and legitimate debate over whether he should even be on the roster is telling. If this FO doesn't have a plan for CF next season that doesn't include Buxton they should be held criminally liable. He just cannot be counted on. I also agree that Joe Ryan pitched himself OUT of the rotation and into the bullpen and that Ober pitched himself INTO the rotation as a game #1 starter in the next round. We better win this series in 2 games. Lastly, I'm happy for Larnach but HE's the guy getting traded this off season, not Kepler or Wallner. Kepler has earned his option being picked up. They can let him play out next season and then determine if it's better to go with a younger guy or offer an extension. Track the development of Rodriguez and Jenkins. Wallner isn't going anywhere. With Larnach's pull heavy power swing, I'd monitor how Frankie Montas looks and put together a trade package that included Larnach to the Yankees. Larnach as a corner OF could hit 25 HR's for the Yankees. If Montas gets healthy, he could be the rotation replacement for Sonny Gray or Maeda. It could be a trade that benefits both teams.

When will the Twins announce their post season roster? Will Funderburk AND Paddock both be in the bullpen? Can we win in 2 games so we can skip Ryan and start Ober in game #1 of the next round? Will Buxton make the roster over Luplow? (what a statement that is for Buxton). Correa will be fine, but the "X" factor for the Twins is Royce Lewis. To make any noise they need him in the lineup.

If you're a cord cutter where do you find the game? Does KSTP-TV have the option to buy the game and air it?

I thought Paddock looked great, but I still think they need Funderburk to at least have another lefty in the pen, and at this moment Funderburk looks better than Theilbar. They should have both Paddock and Funderburk on the post season roster. I think Ryan is looking shaky as the #3 SP. His last 3 starts were not impressive. I would like to see Maeda in the pen, so I'm a little surprised Ober is starting today because if he looks good, HE should be our #3 SP. Maybe he only goes 2 or 3 innings with several bullpen guys able to step in and throw an inning or two. Heck, if we had to play a game 3 the Twins could go with a combination of Ober, Ryan, Maeda and Paddock (depending on how Lopez and Gray do). Larnach is looking better. Maybe he can rebuild some of his trade value for an off season deal. At this point, he's not overtaking Kepler or Wallner and Brooks Lee is pushing for a roster spot next year.

After what I saw of Joe Ryan last night I'm of a mind to hand the ball to Baily Ober for game #3 (if needed). Ryan looked good his first two starts once he was back, not so good in his next two. Last night was, for me, his chance to show he deserves the #3 SP spot. He failed. I know it's Coors Field but 3 HR's and 6 runs in 5 innings does not inspire confidence. Give Ryan the role of 1-2 innings out of the pen and give the ball to Ober if there is a pivotal game #3 or start Ober in game #1 for the next series. I like seeing Varland and Stewart in late game roles. Stewart gave up 3 hits and had to have Theilbar bail him out, but none of the contact was hard. He still looked good.

I just wish that Rocco trusts Varland and Stewart in the 7th/8th inning. I'd rather see those two in a tight late game situation than Jax or Pagan. If you're looking at the "RIGHT NOW" Varland is a force coming out of the pen and Stewart has been beyond anything I would have expected. TRUST those two guys.

That is ridiculous !!! Chalk it up to Bidenomics.

Well heck, if it's Buxton or Gallo/Luplow I don't know how it CAN'T be Buxton. But just to be even debating this as Twins fans is beyond depressing. Buxton...or Gallo/Luplow.

Trov, this was actually discussed to some degree in another thread speculating which pitchers would be chosen to comprise the Twins post-season bullpen. The general consensus was that of the 8 guys in the bullpen, Duran, Varland, Stewart, Pagan, Theilbar, Jax and Maeda would be 7 "locks" and that it would probably come down to Funderburk or Paddock for the final spot. In this scenario, Ober would be the #4 SP (Lopez, Gray & Ryan #1, #2 & #3) and that Keuchel wouldn't make it. It's encouraging to see Paddock throwing 96-97 but I think Funderburk is the final piece because they should have another lefty and I've been impressed with him this season. That's quite an impressive bullpen, and when you consider that last night, the BP struck out 11 of the final 13 outs of the game, you got a glimpse at how dominant the Twins BP could be. Granted, it was against Oakland, but it's still impressive. The MLB Trade Rumors article pointed out that by cutting some of the bottom end, poor performers out that pitched about 175 innings in relief the Twins pen has been downright nasty this season. Gone are the Moran's, Floro's, Lopez's etc... The Twins, with very good starting pitching backed up by that BP could be very scary for some teams to face. I think the Twins could be a sneaky team that other teams could take lightly at the own peril. I think the Brewers, with Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta and a solid BP is very similar. The Brewers are going to knock somebody big out of the playoffs. Once the season ends and the work of constructing a roster for next season begins, it will be interesting to see how the Twins go about replacing Gray & Maeda in the rotation as well as how they construct their 2024 bullpen. When you see how a couple of guys at the bottom of the bullpen list negatively impacted the overall performance of our BP you can see they just need to shore up a couple of spots. Weak cogs in a BP tend to have a negative domino effect on the entire bullpen. It leads to over usage of the better pitchers. I believe adding one solid veteran arm and hopefully someone like Matt Canterino for next season could be tremendous. Injuries and ineffectiveness will happen and guys like Alcala if he (like Canterino) can ever get and STAY healthy, could also have a tremendous impact on what could and should be a very good bullpen.

As a youngster in the mid 60's I vividly remember running home from school for lunch (that my Mom had all laid out and ready for me) to see games in 1966, 1967 and 1968. We moved in 1969 and school was too far for me to run home at lunch time for any of those Mets v Orioles games. Games moved VERY quickly in those days, so while I didn't get to see the entire game I saw enough to see Baltimore's young pitching staff totally shut down the Dodgers in 1966 and Koufax actually LOSE a World series game. I saw Lou Brock get two of his 4 hits in a game in the 1967 Series and Bob Gibson strike out about 8 of his 17 Tigers in 1968. I'm retired now so I don't mind if the Twins play at noon or 3pm. But I can sympathize with everyone who still has to work and doesn't have any opportunity to WATCH the games. You can still sneak a look at your phone to update you on the score though.

Indeed, this is why we all love baseball! The chess game is always fascinating. Not only do the Twins get all 3 games at home, but the very real likelihood that the eventual opponent will need to burn through their #1 & #2 SP just to make the playoffs is a huge advantage. The Twins need Lewis and Correa to be healthy so resting them as much as possible while still getting them some AB's before the regular season ends is also a key. I believe the key to our post season is Royce Lewis. That kid just seems to have a positive vibe. He comes through in clutch situations. I don't mean to put this kind of pressure on him but I think he's our post season "X" factor. Could he be our "Puckett-esque" kind of catalyst? I think so.