TopGunn#22

My initial reaction upon seeing the trade was that due to Lopez's superior "stuff" we were losers. I certainly hope things work out well for Jorge and his family in Miami. I'd like to see him succeed. Upon further reflection I'm O.K. with this. Floro is not a dominant arm like Lopez COULD be. But at this point in time, he's more dependable. That dependability is what the Twins need moving forward. I still think we need another dominant arm for the 8th inning and to close when Duran is not available. Looks like the Padres have taken Hader and Snell off the market.

Lopez has struggled but at least he has "stuff." Floro won't help at all. We lost this trade.

I agree with chpettit19. I'd be thrilled if we acquired Hader and were somehow able to retain him with an extension. I'd make him the #1 closer and possibly even consider Duran as a SP. It's not often an arm like Hader comes on the market at what would appear to be an eminently affordable cost. Larnach? Come on! If you wouldn't do that trade, you would never make a trade for anything. I just look at a team like the Dodgers, who we simply can't compete with checkbook-wise, and their closer situation (or lack thereof) and I can't see us outbidding them for a closer like Hader. Maybe the Padres just refuse to deal him to L.A. but the Dodgers wouldn't break a sweat beating Larnach in a trade.

I've been pushing for Hadar ever since trade rumors started percolating. His value (on BBTV's) is only 2.9. Hader is 29 years old and a free agent at the end of the season. Larnach's is 3.7. and he is 26 y/o and his value is sinking. You wouldn't even need to throw in Winder unless the Dodgers or some other team with a rich farm system started upping the ante. Winder's value is 7.4. He's 26 years old. Blake Snell's value is 7.2 (Snell is 30 y/o). Hader and Duran for the stretch run and playoffs would put the Twins in a great position to make some noise. Add a RH bat like Hunter Renfroe, Adam Duval or Randall Grichuch to balance the lineup and things could get interesting. Keeping Hadar would be very difficult as he would want to be the #1 closer someplace else (I would install him as the Twins #1 and use Duran for the 8th if we acquired him). But with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda moving on after this season it would be great to retain Snell to go with Ryan, Lopez and Ober.

Bullpen management is Rocco's weakest aspect. He just seems to have an uncanny knack for selecting the wrong guy. I hope the Twins use last night as an "teachable moment." Getting Stewart and Theilbar back will help a lot. But they could use at least one and probably two BP pieces. One of them can be more of a middle inning guy. But one needs to be able to close a game out when Duran is not available, or if Duran is called upon to put out the fire that was the 8th inning. Lopez was supposed to be that guy. But he can't be counted on.

I agree with the idea that if we add a RP it should be a difference maker. Hader, Bednar, Robertson. They need another reliable closer for when Duran is not available, or in the playoffs is brought on in the 8th inning in a high leverage situation. That "guy" was supposed to have been Jorge Lopez. He's just not reliable enough yet to be anything other than middle relief. Pagan is the same thing. I like what he's done lately, but I want him in the middle of a game, not the end. With the Padres, I start with Miranda in discussions for Hader. BBTV's has that as practically a one for one swap. But I think guys like Hader and Bellinger will cost more than their "value." I would still love to acquire Bellinger despite the higher cost. And I'd roll the dice we could resign him if he does well for us, because face it, if he does well the Twins will probably win the division and possibly even a playoff series (provided we can get that first win in forever). He's a perfect fit with his Gold Glove ability in CF, RF and 1B. Bellinger may see the twins as a better option to reach the post season more consistently than the Cubs. But to get a guy like Bellinger the Twins would at a minimum need to part ways with Gallo and Kepler. And seriously consider moving Larnach. With Emmanual Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins in the mix the Twins have far too many LH hitting OF players/prospects. Even if E-Rod and Jenkins are a ways off being big leaguers. Adam Duval would be a major upgrade for the Twins OF. He can play all 3 OF positions and would render MAT expendable. We should have signed him instead of Joey Gallo in the off season. Otherwise, Tommy Pham is a good, cheap, short term option for the remainder of the season. The Twins need to be both buyers AND sellers at the deadline. It's not only about resetting the roster for the stretch run, it's about recalibrating for 2024 and beyond. That's why I make a deal with the Tigers to get Eduardo Rodriguez, who is signed for 3 more years after this season and auction Sonny Gray of to the highest bidder. Sonny has been regressing to his mean for weeks now. Deal him and replace him with Ed. Rod (long term) or Blake Snell (short term unless you retain him as a free agent). The Twins need a LH SP for this season and beyond and I'd try to sell high on Sonny Gray.

I know it's sacrilegious to suggest this, but Sonny Gray has been regressing to his mean for some time now. I would make a play for Tigers LH Eduardo Rodriguez who is signed for 3 more seasons after this and auction Sonny to the highest bidder to replace prospect capital. Ed. Rod gives the Twins an effective LH starter for the rest of this season and future years. His cost going forward is fixed. He's younger than Gray. The Twins have some firepower poised to return to their bullpen. Stewart, paired with Balazovic is something I'm looking forward to seeing. Theilbar is as steady as they come. I'm not counting on anything from Alcala at this point. Jorge Lopez is a key. He's got tremendous stuff. He just needs the confidence to throw it. I wish he would just use his fastball more. He's a total mystery outing to outing at this point. I never thought I'd type this...but Pagan has been pretty darn good for several weeks. Could he also be gaining the confidence to go with his "stuff" ?? Jorge Lopez and Pagan gaining confidence through success along with Stewart, Balazovic, Moran and Jax leading up to Duran is a pretty good BP. What other arm could they possibly add? There are a number of them available.

I would prioritize Thomas. It would depend on the cost. Here's a deal that works via BBTV's. Twins Get: Lane Thomas OF 16.8 value 27 y/o and Joey Meneses 1B 4.6 31 y/o. Total value: 21.40 Nats gets: Miranda 8.6 3B/1B 25 y/o Wallner 10.7 OF 25 y/o Severino 1.5 2B 22 y/o Mooney SP .90 25 y/o. Nats get two young hitters in Miranda and Wallner that are MLB ready in addition to a couple of lottery tickets. Twins get a RH OF bat and a replacement for Miranda as a RH hitter. Meneses would be limited to a 1B/DH role, but his bat, while lacking the power potential of Miranda is far more reliable to make contact. This deal gives the Twins 2 reliable RH bats moving forward for the remainder of this season and beyond. Whatever the Twins OF looks like next year and beyond, Lane Thomas would have a place in it.

Brock, have you ever been to a game in St. Louis? Seriously, I've been there multiple times. Their fans are the BEST. Knowledgeable, friendly. There's absolutely nothing wrong with their fan base. They're certainly NOT Philadelphia-esque.

He should absolutely be shopped!! As I've said numerous times here, the Twins should be buyers AND sellers. This is a chance to re-work a roster that hasn't had a legit LH starter since the Johan Santana/Francisco Liriano era and can't hit LH pitching themselves. If the offer for Gray is a good one (and you can get some premium offers at the deadline for SP's) then take it. Plus, Sonny Gray is practically having a career year. At some point (maybe it's already happening) he will regress back to a pitcher with a 3.20 to 3.60 ERA. His current WHIP of 1.27 is not bad, but it's certainly not stellar. The Twins could turn around with the prospects they acquired in a Gray trade and make a deal for Blake Snell (who is also an UFA next year) or for someone like Eduardo Rodriguez if they would be willing to pay $18 million in 2024, 1nd $15.4 million in 2025 and 2026. I'd actually prefer having Ed. Rod at those prices for 3 years than Gray at $20 million per year for the next 3 seasons. Ed Rod is 3 years younger and LH to boot! Maeda may not be long for our rotation and he certainly won't be a part of it next year. Any deals made (both buying and selling) MUST have an eye on 2024 As soon as Polanco is healthy I'd look to move him. Julien may not be a good defender but the bat is undeniable. Lewis and Lee could play some 2B as well for future seasons. I'd be interested what some teams would give up for Larnach to strengthen our bullpen or SP. If "anything' could be gotten for Kepler or Gallo I'd look into it. Rental bats like Bellinger or Pham shouldn't cost too much in prospect capital. Heck, the Reds are legit as are the Orioles. What would they be willing to give up to add Gray to their staff? You'll never know unless you're willing to talk.

To me, the definition of insanity when handling a BP is pulling a guy after he's thrown SIX pitches. Yes, it worked, but from a usage standpoint I just don't get it. I think Rocco has pulled a guy after he has thrown 2 pitches in an inning (those 2 pitches ended the inning). If you're going to warm a guy up, give him some run. Since Ortega and Jax both throw RH there wasn't any statistical/analytical advantage gained. If the Twins are going to talk about BP guys who are "unavailable" on a given day a 2 pitch or 6 pitch inning, when the pitcher was effective, at least to me, means you should give them the ball to start the next inning. I think BP usage and strategy is Rocco's biggest negative. Even worse than lineups. I also think Maeda is pitching himself out of the rotation. Other than a bat or two for the lineup and maybe a solid BP piece, and considering the state of uncertainty surrounding our rotation next year, I wouldn't mind a trade that brought us Blake Snell if the Padres fall any further out of Wild Card range. We would finally have a lefty in our rotation and hopefully could sign him for 2024 and beyond. The other option is to just bring Varland back.

Well...the other big stat for pitchers, which doesn't seem to matter now (and isn't mentioned in the article) and is linked hand in hand with innings pitched is WINS! Viola was 13-2 at the All star break, on his way to a 24 win season. Call me old fashioned, but in this era of "Max Effort" on every pitch it just seems that we have a lot of "throwers" and not as many "pitchers." I know advanced metrics supposedly "tell us" that stats like "Wins" and "Batting Average" aren't really unimportant anymore. But winning games is the ultimate purpose of a baseball team. And a pitcher who knows how to "win games" is invaluable to a team in my view. Who would you rather build your staff around...Jacob DeGrom, who could be unbelievable but somehow never had the knack to win games, or Tom Glavine, who won over 300 games and always took the ball. Even when his stuff was at it's best DeGrom won 12-14 games in a season. I've got to believe the concept of "Max Effort" hasn't helped Jacob DeGrom in his career. Unless you count all the money he's made while rehabbing. Finally, I would put Jim Kaat's 1966 season in which he won 25 games on the list instead of Maeda's half season in 2020. Kaat should have won the American League CY Young, but they only gave one award for the American & National League and nobody was beating Sandy Koufax in his final season.

One way or another, I see him on the Dodgers. Either they wait for free agency and choose not to give up anything OR, they make a deal this season. Here's why they could make a deal this season. The Dodgers have a winning culture and this year despite letting a ton of players go in free agency they are still in the playoff picture. Supposedly, the Dodgers let Turner, Bellinger, Kenley Jansen and others walk in order to free up salary to go after Ohtani. But even though they are a playoff team, the Dodgers are a shell of what they've had in the not too distant past. They need Ohtani to put them over the top and become a serious contender. I think the Dodgers make a play to give Ohtani a taste of playoff baseball and maybe even a World Series championship. That could seal the deal of Ohtani sticking with the Dodgers after this season.

I'm strongly in favor of BOTH needing to go and I'll take back WHATEVER middling prospect I can get. It's addition by subtraction regarding Kepler and Gallo. Nashville hit the nail on the head though regarding our FO's perception of Larnach & Wallner. That's why I've consistently made clear my willingness to trade Larnach in the right deal. Wallner has had the least amount of opportunity at the major league level so I'm giving him a little more rope. At this point he's the LH Brent Rooker.

Doc Gast, it was just a typo! You know your Twins. But it's reasonable to expect a good amount of teasing anyway! Anytime a team can pitch like the Twins they have a chance. Go look at the lineup the 1973 Mets had that made the World Series! They were starting an 80 year old Willie Mays in CF!! There is no doubt that ONE bat will not "fix" the Twins moribund offense. But guys like Bellinger and Pham would be "cheap" acquisitions. Pham has that "Shannon Stewart" vibe and would be a half season rental. Bellinger is appealing because of the Gold Glove defense in CF but would necessitate moving Gallo AND Kepler, as well as blocking opportunities for Larnach and Wallner (if Gallo and Kepler could be sent packing). And of course if Correa and Buxton could show some sort of improvement that would be huge. But there is a potential blockbuster deal that COULD transform the lineup and take a little pressure off everybody else that could enable improvement by other key contributors. It all depends on the St. Louis Cardinals. Are they willing to trade away key pieces in the hopes of a major reset for 2024? Or would the fanbase of baseball's best city rebel over the reset? Using BBTV's numbers. Twins Get: 3B Nolan Arenado -11.6 32 y/o, 1B Paul Goldschmidt +21.1 value 35 y/o and cash to offset some of Arenado's cost. Cards Get: 1B/3B Jose Miranda +8.9 value. SP Louis Varland +10.3 value and RHP Josh Winder 5.8 value. The money the Cards would send over would be significant in order to acquire players the value the Twins are sending. Arenado's negative value enables a deal of this magnitude. The Twins would have Arenado through 2027. They would have Goldy through 2024. If the Pohlad's are willing to move the Twins budget up a bit from MLB middle of the pack the Twins could either extend Sonny Gray or sign a FA SP to go with a 2024 rotation that would include Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober. Chris Paddock's health and performance after getting a look at him before the end of this season would also be in the mix. But a lineup that would feature Goldy and Arenado would be significantly stronger. Especially when you consider the defense they would provide and if the Twins could devise a lineup and defensive alignment that kept Lewis, Kirilloff and Julien as regular contributors...both for the remainder of this season, but for 2024 as well.

With the season he's put together, primed for a FA payday, I have no idea what Sonny was thinking (I'm sure his agent is "thrilled"). I still worry about him returning to his "mean" in the 2nd half of the season which was why I wasn't opposed to considering dealing him at his highest value (and dealing for someone like Blake Snell who seems to do very well in the 2nd half of seasons lately). So yeah, his statement was a real head scratcher.

Here's a deal that I would propose because as others have pointed out, the Cards need pitching. Using BBTV's: Twins Get: Arenado 3B -11.6 value 32 y/o Goldschmidt 1B 21.1 value 35 y/o and CASH to lower Arenado's cost and mitigate his negative value. The cash contribution puts the Twins Total Value acquired at 24.50 Cards Get: L. Varland RHSP 10.3 Josh Winder RHP 5.8 Miranda 3B/1B 8.9 Total value: 25.00. These two bats would instantly upgrade the Twins offense and we'd have Goldy & Noley for all of 2024. We haven't touched anyone in our current starting rotation. Bullpen help would still be needed. Maybe the deal could be expanded slightly to include a BP piece the Cards would be willing to part with. But I would also contend that this type of deal would lead to other deals. This is what I'm talking about when I urge that the Twins should be buyers as well as sellers. We need to remake the composition of our roster. Polanco would be at the top of my list before his value completely craters (it's currently at 7.3). Gallo 2.7 Kepler 1.2 Theilbar 12.7, Larnach 16.4, Solano 2.4, Winder 5.8, should ALL be considered in various forms of buying or selling type of trades. What else could we add if we parted with some of these players? Adding Goldy & Arenado means Lewis is playing 2B and/or CF (or certainly LF). Kirilloff moves to RF fulltime. Julien is playing 2B when Lewis isn't and maybe DH'ing a bit more too. Julien should also get a look in LF. Possible Lineup: (assuming Buxton can only play DH) Julien 2B (Farmer comes in for defense 7th inning) Goldy 1B Kirilloff RF (the power isn't there yet, but he gets on base considtently) Arenado 3B Correa SS (counting on a better 2nd half of the season) Lewis LF (when he returns) 2B full time if an OF also acquired at deadline moving Julien to DH Buxton DH Jeffers C Kepler/MAT CF (either or both should be moved so acquiring a Bellinger type would be low cost and necessary). That's a MUCH better lineup than what we currently have obviously. This lineup has some positional flexibility even if Lewis doesn't play OF but other moves would be needed.

I'm hearing persistent rumors that the Padres may be sellers and that Josh Hader could very well be on the block. Using Baseball Trade Values this is a trade that works "value wise" between the Twins and Padres: Padres Get: Jose Miranda 3B/1BD/H 8.9 value and Jorge Polanco 2B 7.3 value. Total Value 16.2. Twins Get: Josh Hader RP 8.3 value and Blake Snell SP 7.4 value. Total Value 15.7. Padres need to upgrade at 2B from Croenenworth. Also need a DH with their release of Cruz. Miranda could also play some 1B. San Diego also off loads salary (they have been spending like drunken sailors with Machado, Darvish, Soto and Bogaerts just to name a few). Twins need another stud in the back end of their BP and Hader is the ultimate stud. The Twins could certainly use a lefty in the rotation and Snell has been outstanding lately. Acquiring Snell could allow the Twins to trade Sonny Gray for a nice return in either prospects or a current player who could help the offense. The Twins are taking on salary here but the return they are getting would be an immediate boost to an already solid pitching staff and possibly open up opportunities to make a deal of two to improve the offense. In a short series, having to face Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Blake Snell and Bailey Ober would not be something other teams would look forward too. Add in Hader and Duran at the end of games and it could be downright miserable. Games would need to be won 2-1 and 3-2 but that's what dominant pitching can accomplish in a shorter, playoff series.

Good points Dman. I agree with everything except that he might be as good or better than than Jenkins. I disagree there. But he certainly has the potential to be a 5-Tool player. His hit tool needs work but he's got the arm of a RF. If Jenkins eventually lands in RF a big arm like Winokur has would be outstanding in LF. An excellent 3rd round choice. I think the Twins were probably "tempted" to take Jack Hurley with their 3rd pick, but after taking 2 OF's decided Keaschall was a better pick for balance. Sure seems like we pick almost exclusively RH pitchers. Finally got a lefty with Dunn.

Many here have expressed their frustration at the Twins offense performance. And to point out it's really been awful since 2020 is spot on. Remove Nelson Cruz from the 2020 lineup and you would have had an offense as putrid as this year's. It is indeed time to tear off the band aid. As Mike Sixel pointed out, other than Buxton (who might not play CF next year either) we don't have an outfielder who will be with us next year. Kepler and Gallo should be traded for anything before the deadline. Certainly neither will be a Twin next year. Solano could be a nice RH bat of the bench for a contender. Get what you can from him and play Kirilloff full time. Once Polanco is activated either trade him right away or hope he gets hot while playing 3B and then trade him because at this point, it's Julien or bust at 2B. We will get WORSE offensively if he is sent down to accommodate Polanco. Larnach is trade bait. Promote Wallner and give him the rest of this year to prove he belongs. Deal Vazquez and promote Camargo. It just didn't work. Include Miranda in a package for prospects or a BP piece. We've seen this anemic offense for FOUR consecutive seasons. Cut bait. Re-rig, and change course.

The Padres might be a seller but they are desperate for a catcher. Package Vasquez in a deal and start playing Jeffers more. Call up Camargo. I'm firmly in the camp the F.O. should be buying and selling. When your starting pitching is as good as the Twins is, you're never out of a game. Right now the lineup is terrible and strikes out far too much. Aside from Duran the only other guys in the BP who have been reliable are Jax (somewhat) and Stewart (currently injured but who should be back end of July). I'm both buying and selling and I'm talking to everybody. Guys like Pham and Bellinger are gettable at a price that won't hurt at all. On BBTV's a guy called The Captain5 proposed the following trade: Twins get: Lane Thomas 27 y/o CF 20.6 value Nats get: David Festa RHP 9.9 DeAndrade SS 2.4 Yasser Mercedes OF 5.6 and Misael Urbina OF 1.2 Total of 19.1. The Twins may have to sweeten this deal since they are a little light but Festa is the only player with any real value and we just drafted Charlee Soto. This deal is a no-brainer if the Nats were willing. If they aren't, what else needs to be added/subtracted to make it work. But this team is a mess right now. Any and ALL changes would be welcome. I'm ready to move on from Rocco. If the Yanks can fire their hitting coach why can't we? We have no use for Kepler, Gallo or Vasquez any longer. We need to get Jeffers more AB's as well as Larnach and Wallner (if Larnach isn't traded). Sonny Gray won't be back. Trade him for a prospect haul or to the Reds for Friedel. Go out and scoop up Blake Snell to replace Gray in the rotation. I'll say this: Gray has pitched tremendously well. But when will he start regressing to the mean of what he is...an above average pitcher but not a top 5 Cy Young candidate. I'd sell high on Gray and replace with a red hot pitcher like Snell. Even though we need bats the padres have two things we could use. A lights out closer in Josh Hader and a red hot LH starting pitcher in Snell. Let's make a deal San Diego !! We need to Buy and Sell. Get to work F.O.

I was thrilled with the first two picks. Gotta admit, I was kind of hoping the Twins would have selected Rochester Century?North Carolina infielder Mac Horvath (who went just a couple picks after Keaschall, but hometown hero aside, I was glad to get a little more familiar with Keaschall after we picked him. He just sounds like a versatile, very good baseball prospect. Day #1 was fantasic. There will be no TV for Day #2 so I'll have to check up on TD several times this afternoon. Thank You for the great write ups and video! Appreciate everything you do for TD.

I tip my hat to Rosterman, who listed a LOT of interesting decisions the Twins F.O. and Rocco need to make.

I have no problem with articles like this. Aren't they the point of a site like Twins Daily?!?? What do we like to do as baseball fans?? Talk baseball!!! It's perfectly fine to debate the Twins trade for Mahle. And it's perfectly fine to admit it was a colossal disaster. Because it WAS! The Twins got virtually nothing out of Mahle who was certainly damaged goods. That's on the F.O. for not being more aware of the physical condition of Mahle. Steer is looking like a pretty solid Major League hitter right now and he has 3B, 2B and now LF versatility. CES, once he ever comes up could be an absolute masher. But with Buxton a full time DH (hopefully just for this season, but who knows) where would the Twins play CES if we hadn't traded him? Everybody makes good trades (A.J. Pierzynski for Nathan and Boof Bonsor) and bad trades (Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio). I can forgive a bad trade here and there. I can't forgive due diligence failing to convince the Twins F.O. that Mahle's physical issues were a red flag. Career wise, on paper, Mahle made sense. But what if the Twins had acquired Blake Snell or Chris Bassitt instead? Then we wouldn't feel as terribly over giving up Steer and CES. Maybe the Twins sign Mahle on the cheap like they did Chris Paddock and it works out O.K. in a year or so and they get SOMETHING out of that trade. But for the last half of 2022 and THIS year, it was a terrible trade because the Twins have nothing to show for it. Miranda has seen his value plummet. It's all the way down to 8.9 on BBTV's. I don't think he has a long term future with the Twins. After getting swept in embarrassing fashion by the Orioles at home before the All Star break, it's hard to see the Twins in any kind of positive light. But they still have the best starting pitching in the A.L. I'm still of a mind they should be buyers AND sellers at the trade deadline. The task of the F.O. is to clean out whatever dead weight they can (Kepler, Gallo, Pagan, Polanco) and leverage whatever young talent they could see as expendable depending on what they get back (Miranda, Larnach, Winder, Austin Martin) to get some bats for the 2nd half of the season (Pham? Bellinger? Friedel? Lane Thomas?) and add punch and dependability to the Bullpen (Hader? Foley? Robertson?). The division is there for the taking. The starting pitching should have them competitive in any playoff game. What pieces can they add now who will help for just the rest of this season (Pham) or could help with an eye on not just 2023 but several years beyond? (Hader). What current trash could they unload (Gallo) and what youth would they be willing to part with to help the team now and in the future? Our F.O. has it's work cut out for it. Are they up to the task? In my opinion, standing pat is not an option. Too much dead weight on this roster and too many holes to just sit there and HOPE everything works out.

Bam !!! Charlee Soto with pick #34. Great pick! The Twins are 2 for 2 so far tonight. Hope we are just as lucky at #49.