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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. That's interesting Seth. If they never really considered anybody but one of the top 5 in that spot I'm glad, but just like the silly season that is the NFL Draft with all it's rumor and misinformation, I'm glad the Twins picked Jenkins. Maybe the MLB is going to become more like the NFL. Although with the talent stacked at the top of THIS YEAR's draft maybe this will be an outlier. Wonder who will be available at #34??
  2. I'm thrilled. I liked Max Clark a little more but all the talk about the Twins getting cute and taking a SS or C instead of going with the clear cut best player had me worried. Clark ended up going 3rd ! Langford went 4th. There sat Walker Jenkins, an excellent average/power prospect with high character and the Twins did the right thing and picked him. I don't care if he's a LH hitting OF. In 2 1/2 years when he's up there may be no sign of Kepler, Gallo, Larnach or Wallner. He's the right pick. he's a GREAT pick!
  3. To add to the disappointment, Steer has actually played some games in LF this year for the Reds. He's not a Gold Glove LF, but imagine his bat in our lineup playing either 3B, 2B or LF. Miranda is limited to 1B and 3B and is considerably challenged at both. He's a future DH if he can become a .270 hitter with an OB% of .340 and gap power that provides 15-20 HR in a typical year. He's a LONG way from that right now but it wouldn't be impossible for him to reach this level. He will never be a guy who can play in the field regularly. Miranda has none of the versatility that Steer has and I have more confidence in Julien at 2B than I do in Miranda at either 1B or 3B. I don't see a future for Miranda in Minnesota if Buxton is more DH than CF. He's not going to beat out Kirilloff at 1B. he's not going to beat out Lewis at 3B. And he's nowhere near the prospect or player that Brooks Lee is, and will be. Miranda is one top 20 prospect along with Larnach that I would consider dealing depending on who I was getting back. Miranda's current BBT-Value is 8.9. Josh Hader's is 8.3. If I could sign Hader for 3 more years (age 30-33 seasons) I'd make that deal one-for-one. When you look at the prospects in our system now and the distinct possibility we add some good talent starting tonight, Miranda's stock has fallen for a reason and he's likely to be passed up by several more prospects. Who would have the bigger positive impact on the Twins for the rest of 2023...Josh Hader or Jose Miranda? Who would have a great positive impact for 2024, 2025 and 2026 if Hader was resigned? It's Hader in a landslide. With all the money/dead weight that should come of this Twins roster next off season the Twins could easily afford Hader. Why would the Padres let him go? Because they see themselves falling further behind the Dodgers and the D-Backs passing them by. Even the Giants are ahead of them with probably half the payroll. San Diego needs a reset.
  4. I don't think the hip issue is that big a deal for Jenkins and I stayed at a Holiday Inn last night!! I like that he's a high character player who is athletic and can HIT. If we have to choose between Clark and Jenkins, I lean Clark because he's a pure CF. If we have our choice of college OF bats Crews or Langford the Twins have won the lottery (literally). I just don't want to see a guy picked for "under slot" reasons when we have over $14 million to work with. If Noble Meyer is there at #34 and we have picked Crews at #5 we can still afford Meyer. And all of us on TD will be happy as can be.
  5. Gonzalez would be a huge blunder and shines a spotlight on the "trying to outsmart everybody" worry when there is no need to. If the first 4 go as listed just take a high character, extremely talented guy like Walker Jenkins. As I've mentioned before, we don't need to sign someone "under slot" at #5. We have over $14 million to spend on our picks. Taking one of the "consensus" top 5 and then picking Noble Meyer at #34 would be fantastic. Don't screw this up!!
  6. I think they should both buy and sell. Deal whatever dead weight you won't have next season, Gallo, Kepler, Polanco-(because Polanco still has value) and you've got Julien, Farmer, Castro and Lewis. I agree that they shouldn't trade anybody top 20. But I would if it brought back Hader and my plan was to extend him. Get a couple of bats...I've suggested Bellinger and Pham. Goldschmidt would be nice but cost too much prospect wise. Get a stud like Hader in the pen and someone cheap from the previously stated RP's and make a go of it. With a starting staff like this it would be criminal to just sit on your hands. Actively pursue opportunities to both buy and sell.
  7. I can't disagree that the offense has been pathetic. But after tying the game last night, Rocco tapped Duran and he promptly lost the game. Our BP needs more depth. Assuming neither Gray or Maeda are dealt, you add Pham, Bellinger and Hader for what I outlined earlier and you've added two bats that are upgrades to what we currently have (and Gold Glove defense in the case of Bellinger) and one of the 3 best closers in baseball in Hader. Not only would the Twins win the division but they would have their best chance of not only breaking the curse of zero playoff wins since the "W" Bush administration, but actually WINNING a playoff series. If I trade for Hader though, I'm doing everything I can to keep him for 3 or 4 years.
  8. Mike, YES! I'd trade six years of Winder and six years of Headrick for Hader. But I'd make sure I'd sign Hader for another 3 years. Hader is only 29. He's money in the bank at the back of your BP. Extending Hader is crucial to making a deal. Pham is a 3 month rental. Not coming back in 2024 for sure. By then either Larnach or Wallner is entrenched in a corner OF spot. Bellinger is a "maybe" for an extension, depending on how he plays for us and how expensive retaining him would be. He becomes much more necessary depending on Buxton's ability to play CF. But a guy who's a Gold Glove caliber CF and 1B could certainly plug a lot of holes for the Twins. A lot of money could/should be coming off the books for 2024 Gray, Kepler, Gallo, Polanco, Taylor, Maeda, Mahle, and a lot of young talent will be playing for minimum salaries Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner, Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, Moran, Stewart, Jeffers and maybe Brooks Lee. The Twins make a deal for Hader to keep him. So yes, to get a stud like Hader I gladly give up Winder and Headrick. heck, I'd give up a little more if I had to. Hader and Duran at the end of a game would be lethal. And remember, there still is this sliver of thought that Duran could still become a SP. Pham and Bellinger would be nice acquisitions with some uncertainty. Hader leaves nothing in doubt. You want to win that game with a one run lead? Hader rarely fails.
  9. All I can see on Pham is that he was stabbed in the lower back outside of a strip club and he tussled with Joc Peterson about Fantasy Football. He's 35 years old this season and in 200 AB's is hitting .280 with an OPS of .850. He's stolen 10 bases in 11 tries. Sounds a LOT like Shannon Stewart (minus the stab in the back). He's a RH hitting LF. His BBTV is .80. The Twins could get him for a Keoni Cavaco .90 type of value. No-brainer. If the Mets sell, buy him. Bellinger's offense may be real, it may be a mirage. He could start walking more and hitting with more power (like he used to) or not. Still, a Gold Glove LH hitting CF hitting .290 wouldn't be a bad guy to have the rest of the season if Buxton is a DH only. He could platoon with Taylor. Bellinger's value is only 1.1 but he's being paid $16 million. Kepler's value is 1.2 and he's being paid somewhere between $10-$12 million. I swap him for Kepler and eat the salary the rest of the season. Kepler is actually a slight overpay and saves the Cubs some money. Hader would be dynamite at the back end with Duran. Imagine what our "Power Pen" would look like if Jorge Lopez got back in the groove, Stewart comes back throwing 98 mph, Jax, Theilbar and Moran perform up to expectations. Hader's BBTV is 8.3. and he's 29 years old. Winder's value is 5.8 (26 years old) Gallo's is 2.7 (or substitute Headrick at 2.4) and you've got a fair deal. The Twins take on Hader's salary. We have the best starting staff in the A.L. A couple of bold moves to really move the needle.
  10. I said before the season started that he was the key guy in our pen. Being able to consistently lock down the 8th and get a save or two when Duran can't go is essential for the Twins BP to succeed. He's got GREAT "stuff." He's an easy guy to cheer for. I hope he can put all this behind him and go out and play like he's capable of. Because when he's good...he's VERY GOOD.
  11. To me, Skenes is the #1 overall prospect and should at minimum be pitching out of someone's bullpen this season. He doesn't need to start off at AA. Get that arm into the big leagues now. If he fell to #5 SPRINT to the podium!!
  12. I think the consensus here is not to overthink this and just take whoever is left at #5, whether that is Max Clark, Walker Jenkins or even Paul Skenes. If the Twins just stick with the conventional logic, they should end up with a great prospect. The idea that we might take someone OTHER than one of the top 5 rated players in a bid to save money for a guy who falls to #34 though is misguided. The Twins already have a BOATLOAD of money. Over $14 million dollars to sign their draft class. They could pick any of those top 5 players, pay them whatever the slot is and have PLENTY of money left to go over slot on their next 2 picks if the right player/players fell to them. The Twins are really in a GREAT spot here. They are picking 5th in a draft that has been analyzed as a 5 player draft at the top. They have over $14 million to work with and they have two more picks within the top 50. DON'T SCREW THIS UP! This is a golden opportunity to restock our minor league system with some great talent/potential. Personally, I'd love to get Skenes at #5. That's highly unlikely. But I'd be very happy with either Clark or Jenkins at #5. I lean toward Clark only because he's a pure CF and I have a grandson named Max.
  13. I would love a Max Clark selection. If he gets picked by Texas then the Twins have a real decision to make. Walker Jenkins, the other prep outfielder? Or someone like Lowder, Dollander or Teel. I just hope we get Max.
  14. I thought the end of the article hinted that if he was there at #34 the Twins would pounce. That makes more sense to me. I see a bat being drafted at #5 unless Skenes somehow falls to the Twins there. Skenes is the only pitcher I could see the Twins considering if he falls to them. I'm still leaning toward the draft being chalk for the first 4 picks and the Twins picking Max Clark who will be their CF of the future. We NEED a legit CF prospect and Clark would not only be the best available player but would check a needed box.
  15. He has great potential and as fans it's always nice to dream. What is his projected timetable to advance above Cedar Rapids? It's the same question Twins fans would have for Brooks Lee...when is he coming to St. Paul? Do you need to DOMINATE a level before moving up or do you just need to show steady improvement and better consistency?
  16. I hope they don't try to get too cute with that #5 pick. But #34 is interesting. If you look at a bunch of guys in the #22-#30 range there are a lot of 3B/1B type college bats that seem to be elite hitting prospects. Kind of like Torkelson without all the #1 pick hype. Torkelson has struggled, but he's starting to figure it out and I'm curious what his 2nd half numbers will look like and how he starts 2024. The key is to get a bat more like Torkelson and not like Sabato. One kid that intrigues me but who is NOT in this year's draft is White, the LSU 3B. He just really impressed me with his approach and power during the CWS. I would prefer taking a hitter like that at #34-#60 if I was looking for an elite hitter with a 3B/1B defensive future.
  17. Skenes is the only pitcher I take at #5 if he's there and if he is, I dash to the podium. It really comes down to Clark, Jenkins or possibly Teel if Crews, Skenes and Wyatt Langford are gone. At this point I've heard a lot to like about Max Clark. Jenkins is an eyelash behind Clark and recent commentary about Teel (and the fact that he's a catcher that hits LH) and is a pretty darn good hitter to boot leads me to believe the decision will come down to Clark, Teel or Jenkins. Right now our pitching is great and our hitting is atrocious. But MLB drafts take at least 2-3 years to have any impact on the major league roster. We could be without Sonny Gray, Maeda and Mahle in 2024. Skenes could have an immediate impact but I'm not sure about Lowder or Dollander. They could each be 2025 kind of guys.
  18. I'm going to defend Kepler on that call terrydactyls. That pitch was a full 6 inches outside. It was a terrible called third strike and why robo home plate umps are looking better and better. Kepler has stunk since 2020. He should be traded or DFA'd. But no hitter stands a chance when a guy calls you out on a pitch like that.
  19. Ted, 2 games doesn't make Rocco a Saint. I could argue, and I will, that it took far too long for him to say anything about this now 3 years running underachieving bunch. I still think Rocco stares at his computer analytics while the game on the field passes him by. We had plenty of baserunners yesterday, but just couldn't seem to get that important 2nd run across the plate. Once again, Rocco punched a bullpen button (and it was a good one with Duran) yet it blew up in his face. Rocco has developed a knack for making moves that most of the time just don't work out. This team has far more talent than any team in the horrible A.L. Central and they are one game under .500. When it was time for a comeback, we went meekly with 3 consecutive strikeouts in the 9th. You can blame the players (and we should) but we all know it's easier to fire a manager than an entire roster. I'll give Rocco the rest of July to guide us to a 5 game lead. If it's status quo at that time he and the F.O. should be unemployed this off season.
  20. I went with Medina. Longest outing (over 6 innings) zero walks, 5 K's and one run. When will the Twins promote Brooks Lee to St. Paul?? Just before or just after the All Star break? It's time to move him up a level and see how he adjusts to AAA.
  21. The Twins certainly expected a LOT more out of Correa. But they certainly expected a LOT more out of Buxton. I would posit that those two hitters are essential for the Twins offense to be even average. But those two guys alone don't account for striking out 16 times in a game. The game yesterday was a microcosm of the Twins season. Good pitching has the Twins down 2-0 in the 7th inning. They put the first two guys on base...and the next three hitters all strike out! At this point the Twins have a better "run differential" than the Yankees but are 8 or 9 games worse. It seems whenever Rocco taps a relief pitcher in a key part of a game disaster follows. It may not be "reality" but it sure seems that way. We're clinging to first place in a terrible division but look out. Jose Ramirez is starting to heat up and if he stays hot and Correa and Buxton continue to flail and fail the Guardians will blow right past us. There is a lot that SHOULD change. How much changes and who is part of the change is debatable, but one thing is clear to me. Since Rocco took the helm in 2019 with Falvey and Levine in our F.O. we won the division and set a major league HR record. In 2020 we won a Covid shortened division title, and then in 2021, 2022 and now this season we've under achieved. Whether it was the crap SP's like Happ and Shoemaker, Archer and Bundy the F.O. tried to pass off as major league worthy, the lack of truly trying to build a competitive bullpen or even signing a LH power hitting outfielder who K's a lot instead of a RH hitting outfielder when your roster already consisted of Kepler, Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner (with your best RH hitting OF option Kyle Garlick) not much has gone right for our intrepid front office. There could be a lot of empty seats at Target Field the second half of this season. Change is needed. Tough decisions loom. How patient will the Pohlad family be??
  22. I'm still seeing rumors that the Pirates LOVE Max Clark. I would be happy if the Twins picked Clark at #5 but while watching the classic LSU v Wake game with Skenes and Lowder the ESPN graphic referred to Skenes as the #5 prospect in the draft...right where the Twins pick. If the Pirates DO select Clark, Crews will certainly go #2 and then all hell braks loose. I'd take Skenes in a heartbeat if he's there at #5. I'd give him one of two starts in Cedar Rapids or St. Paul and then I'd get him up to the Twins for the rest of the season. Even if he pitched in long relief his stuff would play. Why waste ANY pitches in the minor leagues with this kid??
  23. I think the better off season signing would have been Adam Duval. He's every bit as good an OF defender as Joey Gallo, but he's a RH power bat who strikes out less, walks less, but hits for a higher average. He doesn't play 1B but the Twins really didn't NEED Gallo at 1B either given the options they had (Solano, Kirilloff, Julian, Miranda). With Duval out there it was baffling to me why the Twins FO went for Gallo who furthered the redundancy of LH hitting OF's. Duval got off to a red hot start for the Red Sox and then got hit on the wrist by a pitch and missed some time. He's back in the Boston lineup hitting 4th or 5th and playing all 3 OF positions.
  24. To me, it's still unclear if his not playing CF was for the rest of THIS season or the rest of his career. I'd like a clarification. I'm not sure how much rest he would need or how beneficial it would be. A couple hits last night was nice, but certainly not to be expected very much in the future. He's a black hole in our lineup. I think they should put him on the IL and see what a month of rest would do. Does he need further surgery? Do it now and try your best to get him healthy. Is it going to be a chronic pain and essentially not fixable? Find a trading partner...ANY trading partner, cut the cord and move on. Our big decision a couple of years ago was Buxton or Berrios, who do we keep?? We had endless and interesting discussion on TD about this. Turns out neither were worth keeping.
  25. The Reds trade for Mahle is bar far the worst because of the talent we gave up and what we've ultimately gotten and will get (Mahle won't be back). Paddock still has some potential upside. Arraez won't hit .400 this year or any other, but he WILL be a consistent hitter with little power for the rest of his career. Maybe we should have offered Polanco instead and gone with Julien/Farmer at 2B. Hindsight is always 20/10 looking back. Jorge Lopez is disappointing because he has the talent and the stuff but he's lost all his confidence. The Twins are right to have put him on I.L. to give him some time. They should probably do the same with Buxton. This FO has "missed" more than they've hit on trades. I give them credit for shipping Donaldson off to the Yankees. That's a big win in any calculation. Getting Sonny Gray for Chase Petty was good. But I'd like to see them pull off something truly beneficial to the team because it's clear the Twins are a mess right now and I place most of the blame on Buxton and Correa. Those two MUST be good to great for the Twins to be good to great and neither has been anywhere near good this season.
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