TopGunn#22

Not sure what Vasquez would cost the Twins with the contract offer but he would be a fine addition. Maybe Jeffers could learn something from him,

I would trade Arraez (19.7 BTV) before I would trade Julien (7.50). I agree with the statement that Julien is somewhat like an Arraez with power. I trade the higher BTV's guy Arraez, in a package to get a SP like Pablo Lopez. It would take Arraez, Larnach and a little something extra to get Lopez. I'd do it.

I would say the Dodgers are all in on Ohtani NEXT year. But the point made about Bauer's salary was an excellent one. That's a LOT to pay for NOTHING. I would like to see Correa back with the Twins, but Swanson and Bogaerts would be pretty darn good at 60% of the cost.

Hendricks BTV is 11.6. Larnach is 14.6. So a little something extra (maybe picking up a LOT of the salary or a player) would have to come from Chicago. Kepler 5.8 and Moran 5.5 would be in the ballpark as well. Having a proven closer would allow the Twins to use Duran in high leverage situations. If Lopez bounces back and Alcala performs you've got the beginnings of a solid BP. Maybe the White Sox do it because they like the players coming back, and maybe because they don't view the Twins as a real threat.

Trading Max Kepler has been discussed several times on TD and the opinions are divided. I think he has little value left as a trade piece although I could get on board a trade for Marquez from Colorado or Lourdes Gurriel from Toronto. Marquez bolsters the pitching staff. Gurriel gives the Twins a RH bat in LF and opens the door for Larnach to play RF. Gurriel is nowhere near the defensive player that Max is, but he's twice the offensive threat. Either deal would basically be a one-for-one deal using BTV. If the Twins want to aim higher in a trade then Larnach is probably the guy to consider although his BTV has dropped 50% from last year to this (30.4 to 14.6). Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. What teams would be interested in Max and what teams would be interested in Larnach? I see Kepler's offense improving slightly in 2023 where ever he's playing. But I don't see a significant increase in power or a 50-point jump in batting average.

That's one reason I like the site, and why I sometimes struggle to figure it out. Players values change. Player values are a volatile market. When they're cheap and affordable their value is sky high. When they start making decent salary, their value drops like a stone. Suffer recurring injuries like Balazovic and they appear to be worthless. It's an imperfect science, but BTV has at least given me a metric to have an idea of what a reasonable trade would look like.

dxpavelka, I think his .206 BA last year was on abberation. Historically, he's been a better hitter than that. I like that Narvaez is a LH hitter and as a result, he would get the majority of the innings behind the dish. I'm giving Jeffers one more year to prove it. Actually, his 13.0 value on BTV means he should be dealt THIS year before his value completely craters.

I think I'm in the camp with tony&rodney and Stringer Bell on this. I like Arraez, but if I can make a deal for a #2 type SP to lead my staff I do it. To get a Woodruff (who supposedly is not available) or a Pablo Lopez BTV would require an Ober and Arraez 19.5 + 19.7 = 39.2 deal (Lopez 38.7 and Woodruff 37.8). I'd do it to get a proven SP. As the rest of the SP market spirals out of control, as it always does, I'd look at the Japanese pitcher Senga. I like what I've read and he may be vastly more affordable than Rodon.

I agree guys. This is where the Brewers should be selling high on Woodruff or Burnes and looking to reload. Was hoping to see a deal for Woodruff but this kind of puts a stake in my heart on that one.

I like how Minny505 and MTV have laid this out. Despite the cost of Kepler I don't see us getting much back other than a one for one trade of Kepler for Lourdes Gurriel with the Blue Jays to give us a RH bat in the outfield. Larnach has the greatest "value" (at least according to BTV). If we're looking to add a catcher (Danny Jansen?) thru a trade, or a good SP (Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff) Larnach will have to be involved, possibly with or without Polanco. I think there are plenty of 2B options to replace Polanco and I'd like to see more of Wallner. I think Kirilloff still has a LOT of potential. And injuries have robbed him of any value, so I'd like to hang on to him and see if a return to health pays off.

Rosterman, does this mean Polanco may have trade value to a team like the Brewers who may need a 2M-Man with some pop? Or do you think this removes him from ANY trade consideration at all?

I'm a Polanco fan, but I'm 100% on board trading him. You can add Gordon to the long list of players that could play 2B in the absence of Jorge. I'd trade Polanco and Ober to the Brewers for Brandon Woodruff to get that true #1 at the top of our rotation. The Brewers just traded Wong. They could use a 2B-man with some pop. The numbers work for a BTV trade. This would be a trade for future rotation stability, not just for 2023.

I'm convinced Jeffers will never be more than an adequate backup. The Twins need to either trade for Jansen (BTV has the cost of Moreno or Kirk VERY expensive) or look to acquire Rodriguez from the Pirates. The cupboard is absolutely bare for the Twins at catcher. They need to acquire someone with the plan that guy is the starter and Jeffers is the backup.

This is entirely realistic Nick. I prefer Correa but Bogaerts is a strong #2 candidate. And I agree with Steve71, if we sign Correa to that deal we would need to see our payroll expand into the $160-$170 million range. If the Twins put a good product on the field and are competitive, the revenue will follow making a contract like this doable. But this is a BIG step. To make this move, a plan to be competitive while Buxton and Correa are under contract has to be in place.

This is a very interesting post Matt. Heaney is not exactly Shoemaker, Happ, Archer and Bundy as he has GREAT stuff and great potential. But health issues are ALWAYS knocking on his door and then there are bouts with inconsistency. He's a guy I wouldn't completely excoriate the Twins for signing (as opposed to a Shoemaker) but he's still kind of a Hail Mary no matter what your most realistic expectations are. And what would his role be ? Initial expectations would be to be our #3 starter. But if he gets hurt (and it's very likely he will) and you have to limit innings he would have to move to the bullpen, where honestly, he could be a good piece but not exactly be fulfilling what you expected him to do. In the end, I could live with a Heaney signing if the money I saved was used to plug some of the other holes the Twins roster has.

I realize analytics is all the rage now and I "get" how it can be helpful. But I'm still old school enough to see the value of a guy that can consistently drive in runs. Yes, I agree that opportunity has a lot to do with RBI's but there's certainly something to be said about a guy that takes advantage of those opportunities (and who does so at a high rate). It's kind of like debating the value of "Wins" for pitchers. Pitchers that "WIN" are pretty rare nowadays. But in the final analysis, it's all about who scores the most runs and how many games you win. Abreu would be a good acquisition. But I agree with the idea that a guy like Bogaerts could accomplish much of the same while still playing a position on the field that contributes to success.

I sure hope this is the year Kirilloff stays healthy and blossoms into the player we all have hoped he could be. He has a swing that reminds me a little of Will Clark. THAT'S the player I'd like to see him become.

I've posted on this previously. My thoughts are that the Jays will not part with Moreno and Kirk is too expensive. Janson is the most affordable and with catchers being hot commodities the Jays will be willing to deal Jansen. Jeffers is a career backup at best. I would be willing to trade Kepler and Ober to the Blue Jays for Jansen. It would take that. Guys like Sands and Balazovic haven't done enough to be a major piece in a deal of this magnitude. It would hurt to give up Ober but you'd have to come with someone like him to get the Blue Jays attention. The Jays want a LH hitting outfielder who can play CF. Kepler fits the bill. But if you wanted to expand the deal, you could offer Celestino and Ober and ask for Jansen and Lourdes Gurriel. Then we get a RH outfield bat as well.

Acquiring a bunch of #2's and #3's is sound strategy. Once upon a time, we had a true ACE (Johan Santana). We still haven't won a playoff game in forever. I'm risk averse tp overpaying for pitchers on the FA market. If we could sign Senga for a reasonable price I'd be for that. I'd rather utilize organizational strength (like LOTS of talented LH hitting outfielders) to TRADE for a targeted SP that is clearly better than anyone we currently have) and that we have a couple years of control at a manageable cost. Then, after those couple of years, assess how a Brandon Woodruff or Pablo Lopez has done and decide like we did with Berrios, whether we are extending or selling off.

I think Doc Bauer and "Always in Moderation" have this dialed in pretty well. I'm all for signing Correa to any of those deals. Like Buxton last winter, he's our #1 priority. I also like Bogaerts as a solid #2 if things get too rich for Correa. Having the varying lengths also allows the Twins to have a contingency plan if Correa opts out with Lewis or Lee waiting in the wings. Any team with a Carlos Correa is better WITH him than without him (with the obvious exception being the World Champion Astros). :) I still think while that $8 million could help sign other free agents, that Kepler's trade value is pretty low. I'd consider a deal straight up for Lourdes Gurriel to give us a solid RH bat in our OF, but I'd hang onto Max one more year as my 4th outfielder and package Larnach to get us a bigger piece, like Jansen at catcher, or a Woodruff/Lopez #1 top of our rotation pitcher. I'd hate to move Larnach. I think he'll be a Jesse Winker style hitter. But with Kirilloff and Wallner (and Max for one more year) trading Larnach to upgrade catcher or the rotation would be better use of resources.

While I would love to have CC back I just think he's going to want too much money and for too long a length of contract. I've always liked Bogaerts as our #2 option. Swanson is staying with the Braves. Turner is the BEST offensive player of all the SS's but his glove is suspect and he will also be cost prohibitive. Bogaerts, in my opinion is the 2nd best hitter and is more consistent as a hitter than Correa. With Lewis and Lee the Twins could sign Bogaerts for 5-6 years and shift him to other positions at some point when Lewis or Lee emerges as the SS. If Polanco isn't dealt this off-season, he will surely be dealt this midseason or next off-season. Julien appears to be the 2B of the future, but Bogaerts could play 2B & 3B when his SS days are over and DH the rest.

I'm late to this again but it's been fun reading through 90+ comments to get multiple perspectives. For the last week my keyboard has been loading what I type really SLOW so I have to type 5 words and then wait for them to print. If anything, it's forcing me to be more concise and less long winded, a benefit I'm sure you all will appreciate. I was hoping for a little more than a 1-A ball pitcher as well and I liked Gio as a player and a teammate. But this move makes sense seeing the logjam of 3B players the Twins currently have. Aaraez and Miranda, with Lewis, Lee and Julien waiting in the wings. Lewis won't be available until end June/early July and will certainly require a minor league stint at St. Paul to knock off the rust. But I think Lee and Julien are pretty close. And Farmer COULD be the SS depending on what happens on the Correa, Bogaerts etc...front. Here's something I believe I'm in the minority: Kepler only has a BTV of 5.6. He's a solid defensive OF'er whose offense has really disappointed the last 3 seasons. With Kirilloff, Larnach, Wallner Gordon, and Kepler that's just too many LH hitters. Something has to give. Larnach has a 30.4 value in BTV. I would keep Max around in 2023 as the 4th OF'er and a late inning defensive replacement. I'd give him one more try to see if he can figure things out offensively. I'd trade Larnach despite how much I like him because he has the most market value right now. After 2023 you see how Kepler and Wallner did and reassess. But I use Larnach as a centerpiece to acquire a true starting catcher (Danny Jansen) or a true #1 to head the pitching staff (Pablo Lopez, Brandon Woodruff). The Urshela move and corresponding trade for Farmer is just the first move on the chessboard. There are a LOT of moves to be considered and made yet to come. Nothing should be judged in a vacuum.

It will be expensive indeed to resign him, but what are the Twins plans BEYOND resigning Correa ? A deal would certainly need to be creative and I like the 4 years with the options kicking in giving both the Twins and Correa future "protection." BEYOND signing Correa, the Twins need to be very aggressive, because signing him is a WIN NOW move. Several other moves would need to be made to contend NOW. Are they willing to make that commitment?? I for one would not mind making a run at Bogaerts if Correa got too expensive.

I like a lot of what you've done but I'm in agreement with Nashville that I'm not moving Lee. It was a gift he fell and the Twins pounced. As much as I want to acquire Woodruff (and I REALLY do, I've written about it several times), I just wouldn't give up a possible Chipper Jones type. Just can't. However, I see the logic of what you're doing. With Correa locked up for a minimum of 4 years you've still got Lee and Lewis as future SS's. There's a surplus to deal from. I've also been pushing for a Jansen trade and would rather have him and Jason Castro than a Jeffers/Narvaez duo. MY problem is that Ober is a key trade piece to get Woodruff from the Brewers as well as a possible piece to acquire Jansen the catcher. I can't trade Ober twice. But Woodruff gives us a true stud at the top of our rotation and Jansen would solve our catching problem for years to come. Kenley Jansen would be a sneaky good pickup. He's a proven CLOSER. Duran could be relied upon in high leverage situations and if Lopez bounced back you'd have THREE really effective pitchers in the 7th, 8th and 9th. It would also order the bullpen in such a way that Rocco would practically be forced to have clearly defined roles for each pitcher. This is something Rocco needs to save him from himself.

Happ and Hernandez are VERY interesting. I'd look into both options and weigh the cost for either. All the talk about the Cubs is how aggressive they will be going after a SS and pitching, so it's hard to imagine them parting ways with Happ. Hernandez is more of a situation where Toronto is overly RH in their lineup. Maybe we could offer Larnach or Kepler and something else (Kepler alone wouldn't get it done). Kepler and Polanco ??