TopGunn#22

Great Post ! This is where it gets confusing for those of us fans who try to follow baseball closely and think we know a little, but must admit we don't know a LOT. I think Polanco is certainly going to be traded with Julien and Lee available. Kepler, I'm not so sure, but could see it happening. From a trade standpoint, both are pretty solid players with a few warts but contracts that should make them attractive to certain teams. I use BBTV as well because it gives me at least a "clue" what an impartial "value" for a player would be. There are teams like Cleveland, White Sox, Mariners and Marlins who have pitching to trade and needs at 2B or RF. But look at the "values" of some Twins players and some pitchers we could have an interest in and their values: Polanco 4.5 Kepler 8.9 Larnach 7.8 and Jeffers 33.3. Jeffers would be a prime "sell high" candidate if you don't believe his 2023 season makes him our catcher for the next 5 years. Glasnow 13.1 30 years old. Dylan Cease 44.8 28 yo Mike Kopech -3.6 28 yo (I love his arm and would take a chance on it) Eloy Jimezez -7.3 (a RH hitting LF?) Luis Robert 84.8 (just the CF we could use. Big RH stick, good fielder. Not happening). Logan Gilbert 73.9 Bryan Woo 24.6 Robbie Ray -30.2 Bryce Miller 25.8 25 yo Ty France 3.6 (a 1B?) 29 yo George Kirby 98.6 26 yo Luis Castillo 20.8 31 yo. Logan Allen 27.0 25 yo Shane Bieber 5.7 29 yo Tristen McKenzie 30.9 27 yo Gavin Williams 40.4 24 yo Sandy Alcantara 15.3 28 yo Eduard Cabrera 8.5 26 yo Sixto Sanchez 0.0 26 yo max Meyer 16.7 24 yo Trevor Rogers 17.4 26 yo. Polanco or Max alone aren't getting anything done unless it's Max or Larnach straight up for E. Cabrera. If you're willing to trade Jeffers, you can aim higher, count on a bounce back season from Vasquez and promote Camargo to backup catcher. Any deal I do with Miami I want to have Sixto Sanchez included. Two or three years ago he was a hot prospect. Then injuries started to plague him (think Canterino) and his value has plummeted to zero. He's still just 26 and if you can unlock that arm talent, you've got a steal. He's still considered a starter but all he needs is health to take off. You see some of these values and it's tough to envision the Twins trading for a Kirby or a Gilbert. But talented pitchers like Alcantara, Castillo and Glasnow are at an affordable level trade-wise. Castillo already has a big contract (5 yrs $108 million which is more cost efficient than Sonny Gray will be). Alcantara is signed for 5 years and $56 million. Glasnow will earn $25 million in 2024 and then be a free agent. I'd target Alcantara and Castillo. They aren't unreasonable cost wise for a trade and each comes with 5 years of control. Castillo at $21.6 million (He's always been twice the pitcher Sonny Gray was) and Alcantara at just over $11 million per season. Those two give the Twins a rotation of Castillo, Lopez, Alcantara, Ryan and Ober. How do we get them? Trade #1 with Mariners Mariners Get: Kepler 8.9 OF Miranda 5.3 1B/3B/DH 26 yo David Festa RHP 8.7 23 yo and Misael Urbina 2.3 OF 21 yo Total Value 25.2 Twins Get: Luis Castillo 20.8 SP 31 yo (we have him for his 31-35 year old seasons at about $21 million per, and Ty France 3.6 1B 29 yo. Total Value 24.4 Trade #2 with Marlins Marlins Get: Jorge Polanco 4.5 2B/3B Trevor Larnach 7.8 OF 27 yo Josh Winder RHP 4.9 27 yo. Total Value: 17.2 Twins Get: Sandy Alcantara 15.3 28 yo. and Sixto Sanchez 0.0 RHP 26 yo. Total Value: 15.3. In each case it needs to be a slight overpay to acquire quality starting pitching. Each team gets a little more juice for their offense and a young pitcher to replace the arm their losing. The Mariners do the deal because they need to add offense and Kepler and Miranda could do that and they already have Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo and Bryce Miller in their rotation. They can afford to trade Castillo and he's their most expensive arm. The Marlins make the deal because Polanco and Larnach give their lineup a jolt and they get a decent bullpen arm back in Winder. They also already have Jesus Luzardo, Eury Perez, Trevor Rogers, Eduard Cabrera and Max Meyer slated to be in their 2024 rotation. And they have more arms on the way. The trades at least pass the smell test because there is the sense that there could be comparable value. But none of us knows how the teams ACTUALLY value their players and other teams players. This would be a bold move to build an awesome rotation with fixed costs for the big three for about 5 more seasons. The Ryan and Ober costs would be dealt with at the appropriate time. With so many affordable young hitters, I think the Twins have a unique opportunity to build a starting staff like this. And Jenkins, Lee, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Royce Lewis are the core you build around. I might even deal Farmer to open up $6.6 million more if I think Castro can fill in adequately at 2B, 3B, CF, LF and even SS. Maybe there's even enough money to afford Jung-hoo Lee to play CF and I get Ty France as a 1B/DH RH bat who makes contact consistently. What does everyone think?

I'm not comfortable with any assertion that Juan Soto is a "Problem" guy. A "Me" guy. Based on what? Based on NOTHING. I will agree that he is a tremendous offensive player who would really add juice to any lineup while playing below average corner outfield defense. He would be a tremendous addition to the Twins lineup, even if it was for one year only. That said, if the Twins were showing a willingness to INCREASE payroll to make a run, conversations regarding Soto would make some sense. According to BBTV you could trade Wallner straight up for Soto. They're 23.9 values are exactly equal. Would that be enough to get him? Maybe. But if you were going to trade Wallner, or possibly Ober and Larnach, you would have to make corresponding moves in FA to sign a couple of SP's, like Frankie Montas and Lucas Giolito. If you're pushing all your chips to the middle of the table to make a serious run, you don't hold any chips back. Trading Kepler and Polanco helps mitigate what you'd be paying Soto. Gray's departure allows you to sign Montas. Moving Farmer and Theilbar helps pay for some of Giolito. But that's a LOT of moving parts. In regards to the Padres being a mess. Heck YES they're a mess. They've underachieved by their own and their fans expectations. They will lose the N.L. Cy Young Award winner and one of the top 5 closers in baseball. Their rotation is a mess with Wacha probably leaving and an aging, increasingly fragile and ineffective Yu Darvish and an injured Joe Musgrove leading their staff. Manny Machado is UNHAPPY and has a contract that is virtually immoveable. At least they still have Fernando Tatis. Yup...they are a mess. Pete Alonso would be a fascinating addition to our lineup. Solves the 1B problem. RH power hitter good for 40 HR's and 100 RBI's per season. (sounds almost Killebrew-esque) he would make a great cleanup hitter. He would actually be someone that could be affordable beyond next season if you were willing to make Kirilloff an OF. But to get him you'd have to trade. All it would take to get Rhys Hoskins is money. Hoskins isn't as good as Alonso but he's not bad at all. Problem is, money seems to be an issue for the Twins. Love the conversation. Just stay away from disparaging a player based on nothing. None of us are "insiders" who could honestly claim we have the real deal news on player X being a cancer. That goes for Soto, or Trevor Bauer or whoever. We. Don't. Know.

The Twins can't count on anything from Buxton going forward. Nothing. The first priority is replacing Gray in the rotation. After that, I'm not interested in anything the likes of Pillar, Marisnick et al. We have some in-house candidates but nobody who is a full-time type of solution. Whether it's trading for someone like a Garrett Mitchell or Joey Weimer from the Brewers, Tyler O'Neill from the Cardinals, or signing someone like the Korean League star Lee, it has to be an option that is a full-time solution. We've all discussed Buxton's chronic unavailability ad nauseum. Secure a full-time solution and move on.

Speaking of eye tests...Rafael Palmiero winning a Gold Glove at 1B...when he was a DH for virtually the entire season!!! That was the ultimate "I DON'T BELIEVE WHAT I JUST SAW !! We'll see yah, tomorrow night" moment. I agree with Morosi, Polanco is going to get traded in a package of players to either get us a pitcher (Miami?) or a CF. As someone wrote, and was kind enough to put it BOLD letters, you can't have every spot filled on your team with veterans making $10 million or more. Unless you're the Yankees or the Dodgers. We have young talent knocking on the door to be admitted to "The Show." It worked out pretty well last season. Let's keep it going.

I'm not a big fan of the caretaker stuff either, so I'm commenting without seeing the entire list. Was either Ryan or Ober included on this list? They should be. I'm all in favor of trading for Corbin Burnes. But any deal involving him has to be approached with a good idea we sign him for another 4-5 years. With all the young position player talent we have and what's soon to come up, the Twins are in a unique position to pay for elite pitching at the top of their rotation and afford it for the next 4-5 years. I'm not trading Jenkins for anything. I'd think long and hard about Rodriguez depending on what I was getting back. Polanco is a spare part, but the opinion of Lee & Julien being duplicative is a good one. Does Lewis ever play SS? How long does Correa have before he would need to shift to 3B? Are either Lewis or Lee good enough to replace Correa at SS once Carlos moves to 3B? And finally, where does Julien fit in all of this? Could he transition to 1B? If he does, and you have Kepler for the short term (one more season at the longest) as well as Wallner, Em-Rod, Kirilloff and Jenkins, not to mention Larnach, left to play 2 corner OF spots. And Larnach still has more trade value right now than Polanco, Miranda and Kirilloff and Kepler. I'm trading larnach to somebody this winter. Maybe to Miami for Cabrera. Clearly, trades need to made and 40-man roster spots opened up. If Ryan and Ober weren't included on the list, why not? I'm in favor of dealing Ryan who I don't think will ever develop into a #2 or #3 but could still be a decent, and for the time being cost efficient pitcher. But the Twins are looking a a solid 5-year window if they make the right choices this winter. I'd rather have guys like Burnes, Montas or Giolito in my rotation going forward than wondering which version of Ryan shows up first half/second half or week to week.

I agree with Gary Ward. Too "thick" for Ro-Wash.

I'm on the fence. I like that he HITS. He may not walk enough, but experience can help with this. But he's not an "all or nothing" profile like Gallo or Sano. The fact that they put him on the 40-man however, gives them the option to bring him up out of spring training if he's playing well and Kiriloff is still fighting injury, OR, if Kirilloff is raking, leave him down in St. Paul for a bit. A lot of this depends on what the Twins do in free agency or trades. To me, 1B is pretty far down the list of needs. I'm focused on two SP's and a CF and maybe one bullpen arm. Severino is one of the reasons I think 1B isn't screaming need. And I also love that he's a switch hitter and has power and success from both sides. That consistency plays well in my opinion and doesn't saddle you with a switch hitter who is clearly better on one side of the plate. When the Rule 5 draft rolls around, I could see the Twins looking for a pitcher with a particular profile who they think could add "juice" to our bullpen. That's why a spot on the 40-man roster is so valuable.

Realistically, I don't think we can get Burnes unless Ryan is included in the deal. Minus Ryan, it would take Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, or Julien to get in the conversation. At that point, I think the Yanks or Dodgers or whoever, elbows us out of the way. But remember, Ryan is only one year younger than Burnes. The reason Burnes could be a Twin this coming year MUST be because we'd be willing to sign him for the next 5 years. Otherwise, I don't want to give up on Ryan either for just a one-year rental, even though Burnes and Lopez at the top of our rotation could lead to a World Series title in 2024.

tony&rodney, you are CORRECT! Burnes would be getting about $15.1 million though arbitration in what would be his final year in Milwaukee. I don't know why I typed $10.5 but that is wrong. I've thrown out a couple Corbin Burnes trade ideas but you're right to ask "would Milwaukee go for that?" I'd noodle it around and actually overpay a bit if I had to. According to BBTV, a straight up swap of Burnes for Ryan would be an overpay by about 7 points. The controllable cost for Ryan being the main driver. On talent alone, Burnes would be a huge upgrade for the twins staff. I'd love to make a deal with Milwaukee, especially if it also brought back Garrett Mitchell. We'd have a 25 year old CF as well as a former Cy Young winner pitching in his age 29 season. However, it's already being floated that the Yankees and Dodgers are sniffing around Burnes. I think any trade to acquire Burnes will have to be somewhat of an overpay. I think a young, controllable pitcher like Ryan is the clincher for the Twins. The Yankees and Dodgers don't have a comparable "Ryan" that they could trade. But there will be interest from multiple teams for Burnes. I love the idea of Burnes at $15 million and Montas at $12-$13 million being added to the Twins rotation. And like Heiny, if not Montas, Giolito is a workhorse who could turn things around in Minnesota. I like Montas better, but would still be happy with a Burnes/Giolito pairing as well.

Bader is a VERY GOOD CF. There would be no drop off in defense in CF were he to be signed. I'm out on MAT. Career year, sure to regress, will be overpaid as a result. But the problem with Bader is his atrocious hitting vs RH pitchers. I'm not paying $5-$8 million for a platoon guy who "might" see the field 33% of the time. His splits are tremendous against LH pitching but he's practically an automatic out vs. RH pitching. Once I've secured my pitching replacements in the rotation, if I haven't acquired a good CF option like Garrett Mitchell, I'd be taking a good look at Jung-hoo Lee. He's also stellar in CF but is so much more complete as a hitter that I'd try to find a way to fit him into the budget. At 25 years old, he would grow with the core of Lewis, Julien, Jeffers, Brooks Lee, Emm-Rod and Jenkins. Otherwise, I'd check in with the Cardinals on 27 year old Tyler O'Neil. (Sorry Byron, you're just not a part of any short term or long term plans anymore. How could you be?)

Excellent post Gregg ! This is something I've been advocating but not as clearly as your post laid out. I've been advocating for acquiring TWO SP's. These would essentially replace Gray and Maeda and allow Varland a year in the bullpen. I'm not giving up on Varland as a SP. I'm just going all in on a dominant bullpen in 2024 with him and a couple more arms contributing. You have thrown out some names that could help. Let me throw some out and offer my reasoning. 1. Yamamoto--He's the obvious choice. He will be a better pitcher in 2024 than Sonny Gray. He's also going to cost over $200 million and the Twins will simply be outbid by a bunch of deep pocketed teams who desperately want him. It's fun to dream of seeing him in a Twins uniform, but it's a pipe dream. So on to more realistic "dreaming." 2. Frankie Montas--Mike Sixel suggested him a day or so ago and I think it's a really good idea. Mike thinks the Twins could get him for about $12 million per season for 3 years. That would fit perfectly in our limited budget for the near future, and Montas has great stuff. Presumably he's healthy and if you're looking for a guy to be a #2 or #3 he's got the potential to be it. Lucas Giolito is the consolation prize, but he may be slightly more expensive and isn't quite as talented as Montas. But he eats innings and strikes guys out. Not bad as a #3 or #4. 3. Corbin Burnes--He's a former Cy Young Award winner and at 29 years old, is just one year older than Joe Ryan. Burnes started 32 games last year and threw 194 innings. He won 10 games and struck out 200. His ERA was 3.39 and WHIP was 1.07. Gray's WHIP was 1.15 and Burnes had better numbers in each pitching category than Gray except ERA. He wouldn't just replace Gray, he would exceed Gray in all aspects of pitching in 2024. I've posted this trade for Burnes: Twins Get: Burnes 32 value and Garrett Mitchell CF 11.3 value. Total Value: 43.3 Brewers Get: Joe Ryan 39.1 value and Miranda 5.1 value. Total value: 44.2 The bonus of this trade is that you have a talented 25 year old to play full time CF as well. That would leave the Twins with a staff of: Burnes, Lopez, Montas, Ober, Paddock. That's very likely the best rotation the Twins have ever boasted. However, because we sold high on Ryan to get a Cy Young candidate in Burnes we still need one more SP for depth unless you are comfortable with SWR, Winder, Festa, Raya, or Balazovic providing that depth. Would that be a Ryu type? It would have to be someone from the bargain bin like a Shoemaker, Happ, Archer type, but this arm would be pitching in St. Paul and only called upon if there was an injury. Modern era pitchers get owies. No team goes an entire season without an I.L. stint of two. Maybe that guy is Dallas Keuchel. But whoever it is will have to pitch better than the aforementioned minor league guys to earn a stint in the Twins rotation. That would be my plan to replace Gray and Maeda in the aggregate. Because of a legit 5-year window opening up for this Twins team and despite my reduced payroll, I want to make an emphatic statement. Burnes will cost about $10.5 million in his walk year. Once the TV revenue is recouped I'd try to sign him to a 5-year extension to keep him through his age 35 season. Signing Montas to a 3-4 year contract sets the Twins rotation of Burnes, Lopez, Montas and Ober for several years. Who knows about Paddock? Maybe Festa or Raya have supplanted him by then. Maybe Ober is dealt before he gets too expensive and he's replaced by Varland or Soto. The Twins, like most major league teams have to make those yearly decisions on who to pay and who to promote.

I've been a Frankie Montas guy for a few years. I was advocating the Twins trade for him when the Yankees swooped in and made the deal. Good thing, because Montas was not yet healthy, hid it, and then went on I.L. after a few poor outings only to need surgery and miss all of 2023. I guess if that establishes anything, it's that I can be wrong. VERY wrong sometimes. That said, I'd love it if we signed him. But I agree with Mike that it can't be the only pitching move they make. They need to sign or trade for at least one other SP. Is it a big swing like Corbin Burnes, or something a little less. like Eduard Cabrera. Do they compliment a Montas signing with a Giolito or Severino signing? If I had to make a bet, it would be that they sign one SP and trade for another. Signing 2 is the lowest odds just due to the money. Trading for 2 is more likely, but not the best play. They need to spread the cost in dollars and prospect talent out. So a FA signing and trade would be the best. I'd love to see them swing my Burnes for Joe Ryan deal and then sign Montas. A staff of Burnes, Lopez, Montas, Ober and Paddock would be pretty tough. Moving Varland to the bullpen is doable with this kind of rotation. Suggesting Montas and/or Luis Severino are 2nd tier options but their upside is far beyond the Archer, Bundy, Happ, Shoemaker types the twins have tried in the past. This team is built to succeed. Ownership and management need to realize that and not squander smart opportunities.

Eventually, the Twins WILL have some sort of TV deal. But I also would like to see them reconsider the payroll cut for 2024. Each season brings new challenges and opportunities. The Twins should not be arbitrarily "disarming" for 2024. The division is indeed eminently "winnable" in 2024. That shouldn't be the shortsighted goal. The goal should be a plan that makes them formidable World Series contenders for the next 5 seasons. This is like what I mentioned in another post in the conversation I recently had with a Brewers fan. The year was 2018 and the Brewers had just stunned the loaded Dodgers in the playoffs. Yelich had just completed his first awesome year in Milwaukee. The young pitching pipeline was arriving. The Brewers, with a manager like Craig Counsell were in a true window of opportunity. Fast forward 5 years, their ownership and front office tried to get by on the cheap, making fringy moves here and there but always with an eye on COST and not what would get them over the hurdles needed to take that next big step. Now look where the Brewers are. Their window has slammed shut. Counsell has left to take a big payday with the hated divisional rival Cubs. The Brewers are contemplating blowing it all up to embark on a major rebuild. They've got several very promising OF prospects and a SP (Peralta) signed to an incredibly team friendly contract for the next 3 years and a solid catcher/hitter in William Contreras. But mainstays in their rotation like Burnes and Woodruff are probably history. This is somewhat similar to the Twins in the mid 2000's with Santana, Mauer, Morneau and Nathan. The talent was there to win a World Series but the Twins focused on COST and not what it would take to add one more stud SP to pair with Santana or a RH hitter to sandwich between Mauer and Morneau. How often do these windows open up for a team in a market the size of the Twin Cities or Milwaukee??

I think the Twins need to address at least one SP slot through trade or FA before they go hunting for a bat (CF or 1B type). And I'd almost feel more comfortable if they addressed BOTH SP slots through FA or trade before they go hunting for a bat. I like what Jung-hoo Lee could bring to the lineup (an elite contact hitter with some power) and defensively in CF.

Ditto Cory Englehart. I'd be interested in Giolito at the right price. Is that 3 years $12-13 million per year? Probably. $15 million for 3 years seems JUST a BIT too high. But pitching is going to be at such a premium for so many teams that $15 per season might end up being a bargain. Kopech has always intrigued me. I see such great raw stuff but it just doesn't translate to production. But for an arm like that, I'd be willing to gamble. Kopech is 28 y/o with a negative -3.6 value. Edgar Quero is a 20 y/o catching prospect they are high on, but other than him, the White Sox have very little at the major league level for catchers. Maybe you could swap Vazquez in a package for Kopech and promote Camargo saving $9-$10 million???

You and I are on the same page here chpettit19. I saw a LOT I liked of Joe Ryan especially at the beginning of last season. However, I just don't see him ever clearing that last hurdle to be a solid #2 SP. Any scenario that brings the Twins a true "Ace" by league acclimation who is only one year older than Ryan is a big WIN for the Twins. If it also brings us our CF of the future then it's a HECK of a deal !!. And yes, the non-Ryan proposal is just throwing odds and ends together to achieve a make believe deal. I don't think the Brewers would ever make that trade. But the chance to acquire a young, controllable SP to pair with Peralta next year would certainly tempt them, and very possibly beat any offer the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mets or Phillies could put together. The reason I think the Twins could do this and still get Garrett Mitchell is that the Brewers are literally overflowing with outfield prospects and Mitchell is the cheapest. Yet I remember Mitchell being VERY highly thought of just a year ago. His injury and the emergence of other young OF prospects have pushed him down on the depth chart and unfairly diminished his value. He would be a steal !

That's excellent how you laid that out Major league Ready ! Lee certainly interests me. Looks like I've got a little more money to spend than I originally thought. If I traded Jax 19.1 value, Larnach 7.8 value and Miranda 5.1 value and Hedrick 1.7 value (total value 33.7) to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes 32.0 value and added an arbitration salary of $15.1 to Burnes for 2024 that would leave us at $131,738,000 for payroll. We'd still have another $9 to $10 million to add a SP or RP and a position player. Trading Farmer adds $6.6 million to that total. If you had $16 million to work with, you could fit Giolito into the rotation and create some depth.

Yamamoto is certainly the real deal. But Mike Sixel hit the nail on the head when it comes to bidding for him. We just won't win. I know that sounds defeatist but I'm trying to be realistic. When always reliable SP talented teams like the Dodgers and Cardinals are as desperate for SP as they are (each of them need at least TWO SP's for next season) and you add the LONG list of everybody else who needs SP (rich teams like the Mets, Phillies, Yankees and Red Sox) heck, even the BRAVES say they need a SP, there is no way the Twins can win a bidding war, especially with the news that payroll will be CUT for next season. Even the secondary market candidates are going to be in high demand. So my worry is, the Twins M.O. is to sleep in while the market opens and after a couple leisurely cups of coffee to stimulate those brain cells and a crossword puzzle or two, they check in to see what's happened so far, only to discover there's nobody left but Dylan Bundy looking to make a comeback. They'll tell us they "tried" and maybe even mention that they conquered TWO crossword puzzles while the market was going crazy, but in the end, just didn't see a value move that made sense.

Yes, I did propose the following trade: Twins Get: Corbin Burnes 32.0 value 29 y/o, and Garrett Mitchell 11.3 value 25 y/o CF of the future (wouldn't need to consider signing Jung-hoo Lee from Korea. Brewers Get: Joe Ryan 39.1 value 28 years old, and either Miranda 5.1 or Polanco 4.5. Either works. I'm trading both Polanco and Miranda this winter so whoever Milwaukee wants, they get. Mike Sixel: I trade Ryan to sell high on a guy I'm not sure will ever fully figure it out and someday may give up 40 HR's in a season. Burnes is obviously the far superior pitcher. He's only valued at a lesser amount because of what his future salary starting in 2025 will be. Burnes is projected to earn $15.1 million thru arbitration in 2024. If the Twins acquired him, they would have the opportunity to give him a contract extension and keep him thru his age 35 season. Seems like a worthwhile gamble. I'm also giving Ryan up with the expectation that I'm either signing a Giolito type pitcher to take Ryan's #4 spot in the rotation or making another trade for an Edward Cabrera type to replace Ryan. I'm looking to add a co-Ace to the top of our rotation with Lopez and still upgrading the Ryan slot in the rotation. Burnes & say, Giolito would cost the Twins about $28 million. If Polanco, Kepler and Theilbar were traded we save almost $24 million. Brock B: Peralta is an interesting name and also a very talented pitcher on a very team friendly contract. But BBTV has his value at 64.0 (largely due to the affordable contract for the next 3 years). To get him, I'd have to give up a Walker Jenkins or Brooks Lee AND Bailey Ober. I'm just not willing to even consider that. And Burnes is perceived as the superior pitcher. Now for those who think trading Ryan would be akin to Adam taking a bit out of that apple in the Garden of Eden, here is another possible deal. Twins Get: Burnes and Garrett Mitchell. Same two guys, same 43.3 overall value. Brewers Get: Garrett Jax 19.1 value 29 y/o. Larnach 7.8 value 27 y/o. Moran 10.1 value 27 y/o. Miranda 5.1 value 26 y/o. Tanner Schobel SS 3.3 value 22 y/o. Total Value 45.3. Someone has to replace some of the value of Ryan, so Jax is the guy. He's 29 and I'm replacing him with Varland anyway. Moran is a valuable bullpen piece for the Brewers and I don't like giving him up, but Ryan's 39.1 value is going to take some heavy lifting to replace. Larnach and Miranda give the Brewers a couple young hitters. Schobel has the potential to replace Adames once Milwaukee moves on from him. In this scenario the Twins rotation would be: Burnes, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddock. It's a pretty solid rotation, but another trade or bargain FA signing would be needed to provide additional depth beyond SWR, Winder, Festa or Raya. Unless you're comfortable with those guys for depth.

I like Lee because he fills a needed position (CF) and he brings an approach to the plate we need to integrate more into our lineup, that being elite contact and on base skills with a little power. It was mentioned he might require a 4-year $14 per year ($56 million) commitment. If I could deal Polanco $10.5 million and Theilbar $3.0 million I'd have our CF. he's just 25 years old. He can grow with the youthful core we already have. Some of the pitchers intrigue me as well. With a reduction in payroll coming, if a couple pitchers could be signed for lower than current MLB pitchers on the market I'd have to give them heavy consideration as well. GREAT ARTICLE !!

I appreciate having the chance to read everyone's thoughts before I comment. I'm not really interested in mid to late 30ish guys who are limited by what they can contribute in the field. Turner would be a good solid bat in the #5 hole for our lineup. He still seems productive. But I want somebody who can be around when the rest of the young talent starts to blossom. I agree with those that are of the opinion that with limited resources what money we have to spend should go towards filling the rotation holes that Gray, Maeda and Varland will cause in our rotation (remember, I'm moving Varland to the bullpen for 2024). So with that said, I'm interested in Lee. He's 25 years old. he can grow with Lewis, Julien, Wallner, Jeffers, and later, Brooks Lee, Emm-Rod and Jenkins. He's a CF with elite contact skills. I think you're getting someone closer to Steven Kwan than our previous KBL flops. Hitting at the top of the order with Julien batting 2nd, we've got some serious table-setters. Since I think Julien is adequate at 2B and I've got Lewis and then Brooks Lee coming soon, I'm trading Polanco. We will be fine without him. If it would take $14 million for 4 years to sign Jung-hoo Lee to play CF and lead off, trading Polanco $10.5 and Theilbar $3.0 is about a wash. I roll with Funderburk and Moran as my bullpen lefty's. I would prefer to keep Kepler this season and have an outfield that's primarily Kepler, Lee and Wallner, but this means we still need to scrounge a RH hitting outfielder (unless Austin Martin is that guy). I may not have a better LF/RF option than Kepler available. The final move to make a Lee signing workable is a trade for a SP that doesn't cost much in terms of salary for another 3 years or so. I proposed this deal on another thread: Twins Get: Eduard Cabrera RHP 8.5 value on BBTV 26 years old. Sixto Sanchez RHP 0.0 value 26 y/o. Ryan Weathers LHP 0.0 value 24 y/o. Total value 8.5o Marlins Get: Larnach 7.8 OF 27 y/o. Brent Headrick LHP 1.7 value 25 y/o. Nick Gordon Utility .20 28 y/o. You could swap in Misael Urbina 2.3 value a 21 y/o OF for either Gordon or Headrick, whatever the Marlins want. A deal like this helps soften the blow of Varland to the bullpen and adds a cost-efficient SP to the rotation in Cabrera. It also leaves the opportunity to add a SP somewhere in the Giolito/Wacha/Eduardo Rodriguez price range depending on how far the Twins would consider reaching and surpassing $140. CF Jung-hoo Lee is who I would go after.

Wallner would be way above Edward Cabrera rico, but your Larnach & Headrick deal could work. I have my eye on Cabrera but also a couple somewhat "forgotten" pitchers the Marlins have. I would expand the deal and have it look a little like this: Twins Get: Edward Cabrera BBTV of 8.5 26 years old. Sixto Sanchez RHP 0.0 value 26 years old and Ryan Weathers LHP 0.0 value and 24 years old. Total value of 8.5 Marlins Get: Trevor Larnach 7.8 value, a 27 y/o OF Misael Urbina 2.3 value, a 21 y/o OF and Nick Gordon .20 a 28 y/o utility. Total Value of 10.3. On the surface it's an overpay for the Twins but I'm fine with that. If the Marlins needed an arm I'd substitute Headrick (1.7 value) for Urbina. The secondary arms in the deal are what I'm actually after. Sixto Sanchez has an electric arm but has battled injuries the last couple seasons. He's got HUGE potential, but his value has cratered to a net zero. He's a lottery pick worth being patient with. The Marlins may be ready to move on, with young arms like Eury Perez, Max Meyer (who's had his own injury issues) and others having passed Sanchez by. The other arm is Ryan Weathers who the Marlins acquired as a throw in from the Padres. Weathers looked really good as a 22 year old LH starter for the Padres in 2021, but he's fallen on some hard times as well. Both Sanchez and Weathers are gambles worth taking. Weathers is younger than Headrick and reached MLB as a 22 year old. I'd swap those two out any day of the week. Either of Sanchez and Weathers can remain as SP's or fill a bullpen slot until they prove their effectiveness and health. Kind of like moving Varland to the pen for the "now" but leaving a return to the rotation possible in the future. This kind of deal would compel the Twins to make a BIG move for a SP in either another, bigger trade, which could be tough if they've moved Larnach, one of their top trade chips for the off season, or, to make a BIG splash in free agency for a guy that would slot right next to Lopez at the top of the rotation. Cabrera, Weathers and Sanchez are all still VERY affordable. There would be room, even with a reduced budget to do this. Cabrera is the headliner. But Weathers and especially Sanchez are the diamonds in the rough.

Severino is similar to Giolito in that there's real upside with the talent they have. The difference between Severino and Giolito is that Giolito is still a pretty reliable workhorse. Pitched over 180 innings last year. It's been quite a long time since Severino did anything close that. But I like a Severino signing for his upside much more than I would a Shoemaker/Bundy type signing. I think with the payroll set to be about $140 million that all but assures a Polanco trade (which I expected) but also a Max Kepler trade (which I could see but thought he might stick). That opens the door for Wallner to play RF and the addition of a guy who could play a little CF and LF (a Tyler O'Neill, Hunter Renfroe type). Signing a Giolito or a Severino would make sense if they load up and make a trade for a Pablo Lopez level pitcher. With both Kepler and Polanco in play it will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Thanks Heiny ! My "wish" is that the Twins will be aggressive and realize that throughout this upcoming 5 year window each year is going to require some tweaks and polishing. This year is a crucial year because we're at the "beginning" of that window. Other years won't take as much tinkering but certainly when we come to the end of 2027 or 2028 when Buxton, Correa and Lopez are coming to the end or near end of their deals and guys like Lewis, Julien, Lee, E-Rod and Jenkins will be at various points of getting their payday or some form of a team friendly extension like a Kepler or Polanco, then, other big decisions will need to be made. Signing TWO pitchers in FA just isn't going to happen. The Twins rarely even sign ONE. What I think is a realistic hope is that they sign one and trade for another. I think Giolito is a good target if we can get him for 3 yrs and $12-$13 million per year. He's not like Happ, Bundy or Archer at all. He's a workhorse who eats innings and strikes people out. In a more stable situation in Minnesota, maybe we can help unlock something that gets him back to 2019-2021 form. It's a good gamble to take. We got where we did in 2023 because of pitching. The market for pitching is going to be red hot this off season. Guys will get paid a lot more than we think they will. Giolito is a good buy low candidate who could turn out to be a steal. I'm not interested in some one year "prove it" contract. I want to build stability and known costs going forward. The less you have to go into each off season needing 2 SP's for your rotation, the better it is to determine if someone like a Varland or Festa are ready to take the next step. Each year will have big questions for which an answer will eventually come. I want Varland in our bullpen to lengthen it and make it downright dominant. That requires at least two additional SP's to go with Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddock. So a big question for me next year is Matt Canterino. If he breaks camp with the team, bypassing AAA, or comes up in May and stays healthy, he's a guy that would allow me to put Varland back in the rotation in 2025. With pitching, it's always better to have more than not enough. What if Ryan or Ober stagnate? Or take a step back? That's why I'd make a deal with Milwaukee where we switch out Ryan for Corbin Burnes. You take on a salary but with all the young position players and even some pitchers the Twins should have room in the payroll to boast a Burnes & Lopez at the top of the staff. And remember, Burnes is only ONE YEAR older than Ryan.

No single move should be analyzed in a vacuum. I would agree with those who still see an upside in Giolito despite the horrible stats the last 2-3months of the season. I see a pitcher who is young (29) durable (threw 185 innings last year) and strikes guys out (over one K per inning). Adding Giolito is NOT like adding Dylan Bundy, J.A. Happ or Chris Archer. I'm not interested in him if it's a one-year, $20 million dollar "prove it" contract. I WOULD be interested if I could get him for 3 years and $36-$39 million. Every year, starting pitching gets more and more expensive. And in this off season a LOT of teams are going to be looking for it. I'd rather have a 29 y/o Giolito than Maeda. I'd rather have a deep and dominant bullpen with Varland in there for at least 2024 and Giolito throwing 180-200 innings for my rotation. But Giolito only makes sense if the Twins bring in another SP who is a clear #1 or #2 to pair with Pablo Lopez. The Twins were winners last year because of PITCHING. Bringing in a Corbin Burnes through a trade or an Eduardo Rodriguez as a 2nd F.A. is necessary to build a deep and talented rotation and bullpen for 2024. Giolito only makes sense if you can get him on a bargain 3-year deal to take advantage of his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons. He's a buy low with high upside candidate. Making him your "centerpiece" F.A. acquisition isn't a good plan. He should be a complimentary guy with the upside to be a steal. It's not in the Twins M.O. to sign TWO (much less one) free agent pitchers. So it's time for the Twins to change their usual way of doing business. The Twins have a window where they could be pretty dominant in the A.L. Central for the next 5 years. But even though the uncertainty of the future TV deal is hanging over them, they shouldn't be cutting payroll. They should be arming themselves to be a playoff team for the foreseeable future.