TopGunn#22

I just don't see the ROI for Hoskins. That $18-$20 million needs to go toward acquiring a SP. I'd look for improvement from Correa. A full season of Lewis and improvement from Kirilloff to improve our offense. I'd rather add Tyler O'Neill who could put up similar numbers to Hoskins while playing Gold Glove defense in LF and logging some innings in CF.

The only baseball player I can think of who actually DID get healthier in his older years was Paul Molitor. But he was almost exclusively a DH once that happened. Molitor was a supremely gifted hitter. Buxton is not in his class and he never will be. For Buxton to approach the WAR numbers to justify his salary, he has to play in the field. If it's purely offense with Buxton he may get to break even or a little higher in WAR. His defense combined with his hitting is when he approaches a really GOOD WAR.

The fact is, when you have a player with the physical skills like Buxton who is hurt ALL THE TIME you are going to find yourself on this endless loop of discussion. It's unavoidable. As a guy who likes to come to TD, I don't mind it. It's like going on The Daily Norseman and having endless conversations about Kirk Cousins. It comes with the territory. "WHEN HE'S HEALTHY..." That pretty much says it all. It's been correctly pointed out how "blah" his overall numbers are career wise. It's been correctly pointed out how "good" his numbers and impact are when he's "healthy." There is no denying that a HEALTHY Byron Buxton would be fantastic for the Twins in 2024. However, it has also been correctly pointed out that players like Correa, Lewis, Kirilloff, Miranda, and others are probably more important to the Twins in 2024. Buxton is a Wildcard. Anything we get from him should be considered a bonus. He should not be prominent in any of their plans. To fall into the never-ending trap of EXPECTING him to provide anything is refusing to learn from history and to continue to make the same mistake over and over again. It should get someone fired. It has also been correctly pointed out how many guys we played who were injured last year. That's gotta stop. This is why I've advocated going after Tyler O'Neill in a trade with the Cardinals. He gives you Gold Glove defense in LF and a power bat in your lineup capable of stealing 15-30 bases (provided Rocco lets him run). When Buxton gets hurt (and he will, the only thing in question will be how severely) O'Neill could slide to CF if needed. I think the "plan" should be to give Castro the full time job in CF once the inevitable injury happens. Many years ago, the Twins traded for Cesar Tovar from the Reds. In 1967 and 1968 he played EVERYWHERE. By 1969 they decided he was good enough to be the fulltime LF and he also played a lot of CF in 1970 & 1971. I think Castro has earned the opportunity to be a fulltime player until he plays his way out of it.

I don't know if ANY of these guys will make it. But Fajardo hit .305 and stole 50 (FIFTY!!!!!) bases for Wichita. I don't think I heard anything about him for most of this year in the minor league write ups. He was probably mentioned prominently in those reports but I had no idea we had a guy with stolen base ability in our minor league system. Good Get.

I'm not sure where Trov came up with the idea that O'Neill is bad defensively. TWO Gold Gloves in LF would put that speculation to rest rather quickly. I've been advocating for the Twins to trade for him for some time here on TD. One trade I had proposed on BBTV was a one for one deal of O'Neill for Connor Prielipp. Both have a value of 5.7. O'Neill is 28 years old and in 2021 he posted a WAR of 6.3 with an OPS of .912. He hit 34 HR with a .286 BA and also had 15 steals in 19 tries. He was/is a legit 30 HR 20 SB guy. His last 2 seasons have been marred by injury and an increasingly crowded Cardinal OF especially with the arrivals of Lars Nootbar and Jordan Walker. He's a great buy low candidate. He slots in as the starting LF with Gold Glove defense. He is a capable CF in case of Buxton unavailability (and nowadays that's about as likely as Joe Biden needing "notes" to get through a press conference). But a deal like that doesn't happen unless a Kepler deal happens first, or is very close to completion. You acquire O'Neill if you plan to move Wallner to RF and have Larnach be a LF/RF backup. You can't have a roster with O'Neill, Kepler, Wallner, Buxton and Larnach. The Cardinals are desperately trying to add pitching depth to their 40-man roster and big league club. Prielipp or Winder or SWR could get a deal done. O'Neill would be a good acquisition.

Switching Julien in for Lee is what Twins fans would want, but the Rays would want Lee. They already have Lowe to play 2B and with Wander Franco's MLB career in serious jeopardy at age 23 they would be looking for a SS if Junior Caminero doesn't work out in 2024.

Above is what BBTV would accept as a reasonable trade with the Rays. I don't think many people on TD would be interested in this. We need a SP. If we're going to go big enough to acquire someone like Paredes why not just go "all in" and get Glasnow as well? I like Paredes, just not enough to do this trade.

Twins NAMEPOSITIONSURPLUS Tyler GlasnowSP12.8 Isaac Paredes3B64.9 Total Value: 77.70 Rays NAMEPOSITIONSURPLUS Brooks LeeSS48.1 Matt WallnerOF23.1 Marco RayaSP6.9 Total Value: 78.10 TWINSRAYS

I've been mentioning that Detroit is getting close to getting over the hump and actually being a contender in the Central. I like their young hitting a lot, but it's their young pitching that I think will make the difference. Having a healthy Skubal all season as well as Casey Mize is a key. Throw Matt Manning in there and they're off to the races. But I still view Cleveland as the #1 competitor for the Twins, even with Francona's retirement. They suffered so many pitching injuries last year and STILL came up with 3 young guys that did very well. They have enough depth and talent to trade Shane Bieber and still have an excellent staff. Trading Bieber for Tyler O'Neill and signing Teo Hernandez would give them 2 corner OF who could hit 30 HR. Pair that with Ramirez, Kwan and Gimenez and that might be just enough. The questions Cleveland has are these: Are they REALLY going to trade Clase? He's a difference maker. A trade of Clase sends shock waves through their bullpen. No matter how well their SP do, their pen would cost them. Also, what version of Tristen McKenzie does Cleveland get? If he's "prime McKenzie" they will be tough. Any version less and their ability to contend diminishes. But Cleveland and the Tigers are clearly the competition. The Royals and White Sox are horrible. It is not a given the Twins will successfully defend their division crown. Every off season is crucial for every team. This is a particularly crucial off season for the Twins because, while we won the division last year, we have some significant holes to fill and questions to be answered all under a budget cutting, austerity imposing strategy. It's Wednesday of the Winter Meetings and there hasn't really been anything "major" that has gone down. That should change within the next 24-48 hours. What are the Twins going to do?

No.

Johnny Ringo, anytime a guy can mix in a quote from Indigo Montoya that's a thumbs up from me every time !! I think Doc Bauer has boiled this all down the best. It helps to have a core, a "Big Three" if you will, but CHAMPIONSIP teams always have solid contributors throughout their lineup. The T-Wolves will rely heavily on Edwards, KAT & Rudy, but guys like Conley, McDaniels and Naz Reid MUST step up for them to truly make some noise. Heck, Troy Brown is saving them in McDaniels absence in the here and now. Doc bringing up Kirilloff is something I whole-heartedly agree with. The kid has the swing of Will Clark if he could just stay healthy. Correa will just simply have a bounce back year and it will be huge for the team. Royce Lewis in my opinion is the real deal. He's going to hit .285-.310 and knock 30 HR's out of the park. But in addition, there is room for guys like Julien, Jeffers and Wallner to grow. One or more may suffer a sophomore slump, but the guy I would bet my house mortgage on NOT slumping is Julien. I love his approach. If he can improve a bit against LH pitching he will score 100 runs. And then there is the Brooks Lee question. Does he break camp with the Twins? If not, when does he arrive? Because he's going to arrive sometime in 2024. How big will his impact be? I also agree that we still haven't seen the best of Lopez but that finding a solid #2 or even a guy who could challenge Lopez for #1 is vital. Teams that pitch are always in a ballgame and that's when guys like Lewis, Correa or Kirilloff can get you the big hit to come out on top. It's frustrating as a fan to wait like a kid at Christmas to see who the Twins will gift us for that #2 SP. Maybe they end up giving us a lump of coal. The groundwork is being laid at the Winter Meetings for some moves to be made.

This is essentially the Twins FO task. How to "effectively" replace those lost innings. I have no problem with the plan being what it was...letting Gray, Maeda and Pagan walk. Even if we weren't committed to reducing payroll going from $21 million in expenditures to $47 for 2024 just isn't efficient. Paddack will absolutely step in for Maeda. Remember, Maeda did not begin the season with the Twins. I think Paddack can match him in IP. We've lost Pagan in the pen and he had a statistically good season. But others have pointed out almost all his IP came in low leverage situations. He earned some high leverage opportunities with his performance and when the pen had some injury issues (losing Stewart for an extended time for example) but Pagan's performance in those higher leverage stints was mixed. I'm excited to see Funderburk get more innings, I was very impressed with him. I'm also saying decades of the Rosary that Matt Canterino can actually stay healthy and will be up by May. His arm is electric. Envision another Duran type arm with 99-100 velocity instead of 104. But every pitching staff needs DEPTH. You can mix and match your bullpen to a degree but nothing makes a managers job less stressful than having 5 to 6 guys he can count on to start games consistently. With the team the Twins have now the J.A. Happ, Shoemaker, Bundy days have to be over. I want a guy, maybe two, that have a proven track record of having been GOOD at some point in their careers. There are a couple guys that fit this bill on the FA front. Lucas Giolito, Trevor Bauer and to a lesser degree, Frankie Montas. Giolito is a horse who eats innings. He profiles as the top candidate at 29 y/o.. An elite K rate who has been a Cy Young contender in the past. Can we get him back on track? Trevor Bauer, a former Cy Young winner with great stuff. He's not a choir boy but MLB certainly did him wrong. He's 32 years old so a 1 year to 3 year deal fits a timeline. He was a decent pitcher early in his career but really started to put it together in Cleveland in 2017 & 2018. He won the N.L. Cy Young in the Covid-19 shortened 2020 season and then in 17 games with the Dodgers in 2021 went 8-5 with a 2.59 ERA. Frankie Montas is a bigger risk but has great stuff. The question will come down to cost. What would Giolito, Bauer or Montas cost per season and is it a 1-year prove it deal or something along the lines of 3-years with options? I can't see the Twins shelling out $25 million per year for Glasnow although I would be much more willing to give Glasnow 3-years $25 million per as opposed to Gray. I base that on age and the pure "stuff" Glasnow has. Sonny's strength was dependability. Glasnow's weakness is his lack of it. I would pay more for any of Giolito, Bauer or Montas than the Tigers signed Maeda for. I would want more dependability if I was shelling out $25 million per season. What is that level of spending that a Bauer or Giolito would fall into? So I think a trade for someone will happen first, and after most of the pitchers in FA are picked over, maybe the Twins get a Trevor Bauer for 2-3 years and $15 million per season.

Doc, I like this trade more than the other one. I'm Tony0 on BBTV and as I commented there, while I hate giving up Julien, getting a young SP like Miller from Seattle is key in giving up a talent like Julien. And getting a solid young catching prospect as well as an OF prospect is excellent. The SS is relatively unnecessary as we're stocked at SS. Maybe an arm would be a better 4th piece but I'd do this trade even with the Carrigg.

I agree that none of these contracts is a backbreaker. And they are only "problems" in so far as the Pohlad family allows them to be. Correa plays. he didn't hit in 2023 but I could see a rebound in 2024. He also brings intangibles that good teams need. Buxton seemed like a win-win for player and team at the time. What can we truly expect from Buxton in 2024 and beyond? None of us has a clue and that's the mystery wrapped in an enigma that is Byron Buxton. It's $15 million a year. That's "difficult" but it sure as heck isn't a Kris Bryant/Giancarlo Stanton disaster. Vasquez is a minor problem for an older catcher extremely good at handling a pitching staff and calling a game. And his problem contract is helped by the emergence of Jeffers being what the Twins hoped he'd be. Cory E. put it best when he said Dobnak is nothing more than a rounding error on a spreadsheet. So if this is a "problem" in any way, it's only a problem in that the Pohlad's allow it to be. They could easily handle a $150 million dollar payroll for 2024 but choose to treat it as an issue. There will be some sort of TV/Media deal. Their pockets are deep enough to trade for Corbin Burnes and give him a contract to keep him. But they choose not to. Their pockets are deep enough to put in the high bid for Yoshi Yamamoto and add a 25 year old #1 or #2 at the top of the rotation to pair with Lopez. They will choose not to. Because it's the Pohlad way.

Jacksson very succinctly defined what life for a Twins fan under Pohlad ownership is like. When we had the Mauer, Morneau, Santana years we had a team with 2 MVP's and a multi time Cy Young Award winner. Yet we never made "the big move" to get the team over the hump to go to a World Series and possibly win it. In 1987 they made no such move and still won it. But they were lucky Vince Coleman was hurt and missed the World Series. In 1991 they made two key off season acquisitions, Jack Morris and Chili Davis and both came through. The Pohlad's have never made a trade deadline deal of any great magnitude. Never a pitcher to be the one-two punch to Santana. Never the high profile RH hitter to hit between Mauer and Morneau. And if you think of it, The Twins have only ever been run by two families...the Griffith's and the Pohlad's. Even with Killebrew, Carew and Oliva and Jim Perry (two MVP's and a CY Young winner and a HOF RF) the Twins just couldn't get past the mighty Baltimore Orioles in 1969 & 1970. The Orioles won 109 games in 1969 and 108 in 1970 (and they "slumped" to 101 in 1971 but still had FOUR 20-game winners). The Orioles were just better than the Twins, but Calvin never made a big trade for an expensive star in 1969 or 1970 at the deadline. Off-season 1970 we acquired Luis Tiant and Stan Williams from the Guardians, but Luis was coming off arm problems and wasn't quite healthy yet and we gave up on him too soon. He ended up with the Red Sox and had a lot of good pitching left in that arm. Now, Twins fans see a team with potentially a really good future, coming off a division championship. In some respects, I don't mind that they let Gray and Maeda walk. Maeda is on fumes and the Tigers paid him more than I would have, and Gray, while spectacular in a Bert Blyleven sort of way last season will not come close to what he did for the Twins in any of his upcoming 3 years with the Cardinals. In my opinion, we cut bait at the right time. The problem going forward is what the plan is to fill those holes while dealing with a self imposed cut in payroll? I maintain that there are trades and signings to be made that not only could enable the Twins to defend their division crown in 2024 and beyond, but also contend for a World Series. What precisely those moves could be is what we all love to debate day after day here on TD. Money is great. It helps a sports team absorb some of the personnel decisions that go bad. The Dodgers and Yankees among a few others have that luxury. Teams like the Twins, Cleveland, Milwaukee or the Reds give themselves very thin margins. Could the Twins allow themselves a little bit more of a margin compared to the teams I just mentioned? Absolutely!! But the wealthy Pohlad's by choice do not. One team that to me appears to have tremendous potential and is on the verge of being a dominant power for several years is Seattle. They have a bona fide superstar in Julio Rodriguez. Twins fans "hope" that Lewis or Jenkins (or both) could be that guy. The Mariners are flush with pitching, some established, most of it young and controllable. As thirsty as virtually every other team in MLB is for pitching, the Mariners are a lemonade stand in the middle of the desert. And they have both the reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner (Blake Snell) and the hottest pitching prospect since Ohtani (Yoshi Yamamoto) clamoring to sign with them (provided the dollars are commensurate with the market). Even Shohei Ohtani has mentioned he'd be interested in playing for them. They are NOT the Dodgers or Yankees. How much money can Seattle afford to shell out? They're suddenly the prettiest girl in school and prom is just around the corner. As much as I'm curious to see what the Twins will do, I can't wait to see what the Mariners decide to do. I can't believe I'm saying this, but in some ways it must be excruciating to be a Mariners fan right now. SO MUCH POTENTIAL !! But how to maximize it?

You pick up the options for Kepler and Polanco because they are a good "value" at about $10 million for what they provide. You trade them to get something you need/value MORE than what they could possibly provide to you. The youth movement went well last season. I think the plan was to continue it this year. I'm frustrated that the Twins seem to be on the verge of building a very competitive ballclub, but it is what it is. The outfielder I prefer from Milwaukee is Garrett Mitchell. He had some injury problems last year, but his offensive ceiling is higher. The Brewers are overstocked with young OF prospects and potential 19-year old A.L. Rookie of the Year candidate Jackson Chourio is signing an 8-year, $80 million dollar contract. He played (and played well) last year, and reached AAA. With that contract, he's breaking camp with the Brewers. Milwaukee doesn't need Kepler because of all the OF depth they have. They do need a 2B. Polanco isn't enough to get Burnes. He could probably get Mitchell in a straight up 1 for 1 deal. Julien WOULD probably be enough to get Burnes unless a team like the Dodgers offered a couple of young pitchers that are major league ready. If the Twins do in fact acquire Burnes, they absolutely have to be willing to extend him like they did Lopez. But at 28 years old, if Burnes wants 10-years, $250 million, I don't think that's wise. You'll be paying him at age 36, 37 and 38. If you could get him at 5-years and $150 million I'd do it. The problem is that someone else will probably be foolish enough to offer 10 years. Depending on who the Twins are willing to give up, I think Miami and Seattle are better options. But the FO should be willing to talk to practically anybody and open to any trade that makes the team better in both the short and long term.

That's interesting Fatbat. Even with Alcantara set to miss all of 2024 I have them with: Luzardo, Perez, Garrett, Rogers, Cabrera, Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers. That's 8 guys who enter the 2024 season healthy and who could be SP. The first six are as good as anybody with the exception of Seattle. The Twins M.O. has always been to wait out the FA market. I think their primary focus is on a trade. They want to move payroll (Polanco, Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer) and these four guys have value to the right teams. I just hope that a Giolito or Bauer is still available when they tale the FA plunge. Wacha or Miley might be as well. The entire FA landscape is waiting on the Shohei Ohtani situation. He's such a guaranteed box office that whoever signs him is looking at sellout after sellout. Everyone thinks he'll go to the Dodgers, and he very likely will. But consider this: Whoever signs him gets a DH only for the first year of the contract. Assume he gets 10 years and $500 million ($50 million per year). That's practically enough to add Yamamoto and Blake Snell to a rotation. And a team like the Dodgers needs at least two big impact free agent SP. So he's a DH only for the first year. When he's theoretically ready to pitch in 2025 how many of those remaining 9 seasons will he pitch AND hit? I don't think it's more than 4. When a team acquires Ohtani they must re-set their pitching staff to a 6-man rotation. The Angels did this, yet Ohtani still needs Tommy-John surgery. That's why I think he only pitches 4 or 5 of the 10 year contract. He's a wonderfully talented player, but with him comes challenges with how you handle him and how that affects the rest of the team. Lots of teams use the DH as a way to rotate players in to give them a pseudo day off. It would help immensely if Ohtani played a corner OF position, and maybe that will happen once he's done pitching. But it's a challenge. The team that I think he fits best with is the Mariners. But they just announced they wouldn't be in the sweepstakes. But Seattle has plenty of pitchers, even if they traded one, to have not just the best rotation in all of baseball but the best SIX-man rotation. Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo, Miller plus Marco Gonzalez. What the Mariners need more than anything is HITTING. But 'OH" can OHTANI HIT ! (pun intended). And the Mariners have enough young, affordable pitching (Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller) that they could make it work for a few years. It just makes too much sense for the Mariners, and even if both Yamamoto and hometown kid Blake Snell have stated their desire they would like to pitch for Seattle, they can't hit like Ohtani and the Mariners need offense. It's why we as Twins fans cling to the hope that we could trade Polanco, Kepler, Miranda, Julien, Lee, whatever, to Seattle to get one of their pitchers. The only other thing I could see is Seattle signing one of Yamamoto or Snell and make a trade with the Padres for Soto. They have their big bat (they sign him to an extension to keep him in Seattle) and their pitching staff is loaded for years to come. In any scenario this requires Seattle to spend BIG. But I think they can make it work and could be a very tough team team for years to come. Remember, this was a team with A-Rod, Griffey Jr, and Randy Johnson (and Edgar Martinez as well). Their fans, even though there have been some lean years, are accustomed to Star Power.

Stroman made a mistake by opting out of the final year of his Cubs deal. I know the money for pitching is always insane, Heck, I can't believe Maeda got what he did, but I also do not think Stroman is a good fit. I'd much rather take a chance on Giolito or Bauer, guys that can strike people out and stack innings. The biggest addition is going to come via a trade but at least one other addition will come in the form of a FA signing. It just depends on how penurious the Twins turn out being. They've got to come up with a CF option. I had proposed a trade with St. Louis on BBTV that sent Connor Prielipp away for Tyler O'Neill. I see an O'Neill, Dylan Carlson, maybe a Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers or something like a FA signing of Adam Duval and/or Nick Senzel helping fill the CF problem. Castro will also be a factor. I wish I had a better idea of what the Twins think of Austin Martin as a CF. But before any of that happens the first shoe must drop on a Twins SP acquisition, either by trade or FA.

A story out of theheavy.com says Blake Snell desperately wants to pitch for his hometown Seattle Mariners. Seattle already has a TON of SP so if they were to sign Snell they could easily trade TWO SP !! Snell, Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, R. Ray, Woo, Miller, and Marco Gonzalez. That's EIGHT SP. But Seattle would want a bat that would instantly make their lineup better. A Brooks Lee type of prospect just isn't that guy right now. Even with some of the young hitters the Reds have, none of those young guys--De La Cruz, Steer, CES, Benson, McClain, Noveli Marte, Friedl, just aren't there yet either. I could see Seattle parting with a young pitcher for Juan Soto, playing a season with Soto hitting 3rd their lineup and then seeing how the season goes and if Soto would agree to a fat extension to remain in Seattle.

This is an interesting proposition. I'm in the camp that says "Keep Lee." I think he'll be very good. But let me play devils advocate here for a moment. This post rightfully points out that while Lee has been "solid" at every level of the minors he's been in he has not had a season where he just "popped." A Miranda type St. Paul season as an example. This is a valid point. As always it depends what's coming back in the deal. So let's look at a possible deal I just posted on BBTV. The trade site just updated all their rankings and it's interesting. There was one rating that blew me away: The Marlins saw the value for their 28 y/o former Cy Young Ace Sandy Alcantara fall from 15.3 to a NEGATIVE 39.1. I'm stunned. It has to be due to his poor performance in 2023 after his Cy Young 2022. His contract is also $56 million for the next 5 years with 2024 being $9.3 million. Luzardo, Perez and Braxton Garrett each rocketed past him in the Marlins rotation pecking order and they still have Trevor Rogers, Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera under contract for peanuts. Not to mention Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers. But the trade I proposed on BBTV is this: Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Bryce Miller 25 Majors SP 6 56.5 30.5 25.9 20.7 25.9 31.1 Bryan Woo 23 Majors SP 6 53.4 25.1 28.2 22.6 28.2 33.9 Total Value: 54.10 Mariners 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Trevor Larnach 27 Majors OF Low 4 9.2 5.6 3.6 2.9 3.6 4.3 Caleb Thielbar 36 Majors RP Medium 1 6.6 3 3.6 2.8 3.6 4.3 Brooks Lee 22 Minors SS 0 0 0 48.1 38.5 48.1 57.7 Total Value: 55.30 In this trade Lee is the centerpiece with a couple of extra pieces of value to a team like the Mariners. The Mariners have enough depth in their rotation to give up BOTH of these young pitchers. They would install Lee at 2B right away. The other option is you include Polanco and keep Larnach and Thielbar. But the Twins, in a deal like this ride with Julien at 2B and have a rotation that now boasts: Lopez, Bryce Miller, Bryan Woo, Joe Ryan, Ober, Paddack. Varland is now the master of the 8th inning and the Twins have ZERO rotation worries for the next 5-years which is their window. This illustrates what the Twins could accomplish with a bold trade where they sell high on an asset but get 2 outstanding, young pitchers back. the Values of Woo and Miller actually ticked up from the last time I was on BBTV. Submit a Comment Posting as: 0 TonyO6 SUBMIT NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP! SUBMIT TRADE SIMULATOR TRADE BOARDS PLAYERS Player Value Timelines Player Rankings TEAMS Team Totals Team Rankings ARTICLES PODCASTS SHOP ABOUT History Background Valuing Major Leaguers Valuing Minor Leaguers Contact baseballtradevalues@gmail.com © 2023 Invisibleinkwell Productions LLC. All Rights Reserved Privacy Policy Terms & Conditions Twins & Mariners: Baseball Trade Values

Well Done !!!

This is good news. Big Provus fan. As a guy with some play-by-play experience the observations of Atteberry are spot on. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt to improve now that he's got the gig. I always felt that Atteberry was consciously "auditioning" for the radio gig whenever he got a chance. Maybe he relaxes a little now.

Chapman may still have some ability. I'm not as concerned about "good teammates" as you are Cory. It's a factor, but not primary to me. If he does his job at a high level it won't matter much with good leaders like Correa and even the young Royce Lewis. That's why I wouldn't be against signing Trevor Bauer. I think he can still pitch and I'd bet the price is right. Same with A. Chapman, could I sign him for less than the $2.9 million we're paying Thielbar? I doubt it, and that's why I'm open to trading Thielbar. 2024 will be Caleb's age 37 season. Everyone else in our pen is 33% the cost of him. He's breaking down. Give young guns a shot at the bullpen. A vet like Josh Hader or Devin Williams, there's no denying talent like THAT. But Thielbar's are a dime a dozen in MLB.

I agree Brock. It's not as if the Twins will go the entire 2024 season with zero TV or broadcasting revenue. They'll have some, maybe a lot. If this was a team that just finished 3rd in the division that had 3 promising rookies but wasn't close to contending, I'd understand this "SELF IMPOSED PAYROLL CONSTRAINT." But we're talking about a division champion who finally got the winless playoff monkey off their back. They really have a 5-year window where they could rule the division. But the other teams of the A.L. Central aren't just going to give the division to the Twins. The ballclub needs to improve each year. I see a trade for a SP first. They will probably use a Polanco or Kepler to acquire this pitcher and cut some payroll in the process. Who in free agency they have their sights on is anybody's guess. Luis Severino just signed with the Mets for one-year $13 million. Severino has a better track record than Montas but he also pitched for better teams. He's still a bit fragile which makes me lean more toward Giolito and gamble on the bounce back or take a chance on Trevor Bauer, who is healthy, can eat innings and if he has his velo and stuff back, like it appeared he did in Japan could be a one or two year option. Bauer is not "young" and I would prefer someone younger. I'm not afraid of the clubhouse with a vet like Correa around. But he could be an cost effective and solid rotation piece.

Good response to cmoss84 Riverbrian. This would be my response to BiggestRoccoFanEver who tried to point out the same thing: The trades I proposed with Miami were pretty much dead even. Jeffers is currently valued at 33.3 points in a trade on BBTV. Alcantara is 15.3 and Cabrera is 8.5. That trade favors the Marlins. Burnes is valued at 32.1. Jeffers straight up would be a fair trade for a catching needy team. Milwaukee has William Contreras, so they don't need Jeffers. But Miami DOES need a catcher and I listed all the pitchers they currently have who could start. Alcantara didn't have a good year following his N.L. Cy Young last year. And as Miami keeps churning out young pitchers he could very possibly be traded. Miami would shed his 5-year $56 million contract because everyone else in their rotation is at major league minimum. The Twins would add a pitcher at a cost that is very attractive over the next 5 years. Can Alcantara regain his old form? That's the gamble in a Twins/Marlins trade. BBTV is a decent gauge to propose a trade that is far more reasonable than some guy posting a Polanco (8.8 value) for value for Logan Gilbert trade a (73.9 value). None of us knows how MLB teams actually value each player, but I'm sure they have a system that is "similar" to BBTV. Otherwise, wouldn't Colorado have unloaded Kris Bryant and his tasty contract to the Twins last season when we were looking for a RH hitting OF??? Shouldn't the Yankees be able to entice the hitting needy Cleveland Guardians to take Giancarlo Stanton for Shane Bieber?? There are reasons Bryant and Stanton can't be moved. Toxic Contracts. BBTV at least tries to approximate this dynamic.