TopGunn#22

As was just mentioned by a poster, you can probably scratch the Dodgers off the list to acquire Burnes after signing Yamamoto for 12-years and $325 million. Yankees or Mets, maybe Philly or Boston would seem to be the eventual destination for Burnes. He WANTS to test FA. He WILL test FA. In that scenario there is zero chance he would sign an extension with the Twins. A big market team with deep pockets is in his future. That said, what the Twins are sending to the Brewers in this deal falls far short of what the value would be to have Burnes, even if it would be for just one season. I do this trade in a heartbeat. The Twins are in a competitive window. A rotation that boasts Burnes and Lopez at the top, supported by Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland with a lineup stacked with young hitters and bounce back seasons expected from Correa and maybe Buxton IS a World series contender. Heck, Texas and Arizona made it to the World Series last year. Does anybody think the Twins would stand no chance in a playoff series with Burnes and Lopez throwing games #1 & #2?? Prospects are lottery tickets. Some you win with. The greater percentage by far, you lose with. And every year you restock your minor league talent with LOTS of guys. Some shine, others never pan out. I would never part with prospects easily and there are a couple I would deem untouchable (Lewis, Jenkins). But a pitcher the caliber of Burnes is rare. He's only available because he pitches in Milwaukee (at least for now). If he was a Dodger or a Yankee, he wouldn't be anywhere near this kind of situation.

Trevor Bauer is 32 years old and has won a Cy Young. Giolito is 29 years old and has a track record of having been a very good pitcher. Frankie Montas is 30 years old, has been quite effective in the past and appears to be healthy. These are the kind of guys the Twins traffic in. They aren't signing a 25 year old pitcher like Yamamoto for $325 million. They MIGHT trade for a younger pitcher like Luzardo or Cabrera from Miami or Miller or Woo from Seattle but that will cost prospects...good ones. I'm willing to risk a contract with a pitcher up to about 35 years old. After that, it gets kind of dicey. Exactly who are YOUR top targets Battle ur tail off? And what are will willing to do to acquire them, either in FA money spent or prospect capital ??

This is how the Twins operate. There has only been two players signed that I would have liked the Twins to be in on: Eduardo Rodriguez and Luis Severino. Otherwise, the market has moved very slowly with only "BIG" moves for the most part. Dodgers: Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow. Yankees: Soto (Verdugo is kind of "meh"). The guys I want the Twins to be engaged with: Giolito, Bauer, Montas on the FA pitcher front. Adam Duval on the RH hitting OF front. Bieber, Luzardo, Cabrera, Castillo, Miller or Woo on the trade front, are all guys that are going to end up somewhere, but none of them are guys I've seen or heard about something happening imminently. So while I'm impatient that the Twins haven't done anything yet, I'm not panicking because I've seen this movie before. However, my "concern" is that once the dust settles on the "BIG" stuff (and we still have Snell, Montgomery etc...to resolve) the Twins will be slow on the trigger and good options will fly off the board and our big move will be to bring in Kikuchi or something similar.

I agree Dman. LOTS of questions but none of us has a Crystal Ball. The Twins "window" probably DID open in 2019 and back to back division titles in 2019 & 2020 proves that. 2021 & 2022 are prime examples of injuries and lack of depth slamming the window shut in a given season. The White Sox example was excellent. If ever a team was decimated by injury, they would be the poster child. The fact that a team in a market/budget size that the the Twins are in just doesn't have anywhere near the margin of error that a Dodgers, Yankees or Mets has is, and always will be a "very major league baseball" kind of thing. And even the Mets, with all the money they spent couldn't recover last year. Now, you can fairly point out that the Mets got what they deserved by signing to pitchers on the homestretch to 50-years old to ridiculous contracts. That's indisputable. The Twins have to be much more sensible than that. That's why I think a Polanco for Bieber swap makes a lot of sense for both the Guardians and the Twins. Bieber ($12 million) and Polanco ($10.5 million) are close enough in salary and each fits a team need to a "T." I'm much more willing to hang onto Kepler than I was at season's end given that Rodriguez and Jenkins are not quite ready. Maybe Rodriguez takes a BIG step forward, and crushes it at St. Paul. Maybe the same is true for Brooks Lee. But the guys the Twins had playing outfield at the end of 2022 (Cave, Contreras etc...) should never be confused with the talent the Twins have in Lee, Rodriguez, Jenkins or even Wallner. But I think the Twins MUST do something to replace Gray & Maeda and picking up an Adam Dunn or Nick Senzel to cushion the blow of trading a Larnach or Kepler needs to be done. Standing pat is not going to defend the divisional title. It's not an easy job being a part of an MLB front office, and every year brings new challenges and uncertainties.

I'm currently a Charter customer because I can watch Twins, T-Wolves and Wild games thru Balleys. The Wolves and Wild are supposed to be guaranteed until the completion of their regular seasons. Twins baseball will overlap that. I'm just waiting to see what my options are once a Twins decision has been reached. I have Prime, and I'm pretty sure I would like to find a way NOT to pay $275 per month to Charter. I get my internet and cable TV from Charter so that $275 is not just TV. But something's going to change around April 1st for me. As fans of a smaller than large market team, and if MLB ends up taking over all of the teams broadcasting rights as RSN continue to go bankrupt and cable TV as we've known it ceases to exist, I wonder if some form of revenue sharing of all broadcast fees/income is ultimately possible? It would be nice to be able to see the Cincinnati Reds retain their players. Or Tampa Bay having the financial ability to keep a Glasnow if they wanted to. This is why the Giants and Jets or Chargers and Rams don't just gobble up all the high priced talent. Would that mean a salary cap would come to baseball? I doubt it. The Players Union has made it abundantly clear they would rather see the sport burned to the ground than accede to a salary cap. But with this tectonic change in broadcast revenues throughout MLB happening I wonder where all this is headed.

The difference between Castillo and Glasnow though, is that Castillo has been a horse in the past and Glasnow has never had a season in which he didn't miss significant time, Riverbrain. That's why I think Castillo would be an excellent target for the here and now as well as through his age 34 season.

This is a very interesting proposition and not out of the realm of possibility. I'd be VERY interested in Luis Castillo. In Cincy, he was CLEARLY the staff Ace, rated far more highly than Sonny Gray and clearly better in every respect. And he's younger than Gray by several years. With Seattle looking to hoard their younger, controllable arms yet still needing to add offense (have you looked at what their potential lineup looks like if the season started today)? I think it's very much "in play" that Castillo could be traded. Seattle would need to "win" the trade as well as have a savings of at least $10 million. Here's a trade I would propose: Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Luis Castillo 31 Majors SP Low 5 138.7 121.6 17.1 13.7 17.1 20.6 Emerson Hancock 24 Majors SP 6 7.7 3.9 3.8 3 3.8 4.5 Total Value: 20.90 Mariners 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Trevor Larnach 27 Majors OF Low 4 9.2 5.6 3.6 2.9 3.6 4.3 Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 David Festa 23 Minors SP 0 0 0 8.7 7 8.7 10.4 Total Value: 21.7 Seattle gets Polanco and Larnach. Two bats that give their lineup a jolt. Polanco takes over at 2B and Larnach in RF. Polanco could play 3B if the Mariners wanted Ryan Bliss to play 2B. Polanco replaces Suarez and Larnach replaces Teo Hernandez in the currently punch-less Mariner lineup. The Mariners also get a promising young SP (Festa) to replace Emerson Hancock. Robby Ray is set to come back midway through the 2024 season. Instead of getting a questionable #2 to replace Gray and slot behind Lopez, the Twins get a #1 who pushes Lopez to #2. How exciting would it be to go into a playoff with Castillo and Lopez pitching games 1 & 2? Hancock enters the mix for a depth #5 SP with Paddack and Varland. This could also free Varland up for a year as the Twins 8th inning guy. Larnach will be passed up by Emmanuel Rodriguez by the end of 2024 or early 2025. Walker Jenkins is lurking. Even Mercedes, a young 18 year old OF is lurking. The Twins still have Kepler for at least half of 2024. The Twins would have to overpay slightly to make this happen and they could still deal Kepler for prospects if they felt they had to cut more payroll to accommodate Castillo's contract. The Twins also get cost certainty for the life of Castillo's contract and at $23 million per and his talent, he'll be worth it to age 34-35. Castillo, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, then Paddack, Varland, Hancock. That's talent and depth in the rotation, for several years. Adding Varland to the bullpen with the chance that Matt Canterino joins at sometime is also quite intriguing.

I agree Fatbat. The easiest avenue to filling that #2 hole in the starting rotation would be to just go sign someone like Giolito, Bauer or Montas. Bauer has been a Cy Young Award winner. Giolito and Montas have each been the #`1 SP on their team. They are veterans who, while having question marks also offer a track record that gives some sort of projectability for future production. It is, as you so succinctly put it, hitting the "Easy Button." By going this route, the Twins remove all the pressure of needing to trade Polanco, Kepler, Vasquez, Farmer. It also allows them the option to trade for prospect capital rather than exclusively focusing on someone who would be an immediate contributor. Let's play this out for the sake of discussion. Rotation: Lopez, Bauer, Ryan, Ober, Paddack. Varland-bullpen or St. Paul SP. Festa-pitching at St. Paul. SWR-pitching at St. Paul. So there are 5 SP's and depth at St. Paul with Varland the obvious immediate call up. But what if Varland is deemed the Pagan replacement? To me, Varland becomes the 8th inning guy and closer when Duran is unavailable. Jax becomes my Pagan replacement. Canterino is also in St. Paul. All he has to do is stay healthy and he's got a ticket to a Twins bullpen spot. The Twins could then do a trade like this: Maybe the Twins don't get BOTH Sixto Sanchez and Ryan Weathers as throw ins. But they could get one of them. The Marlins get Polanco to play 2B and strengthen their lineup. They also get a promising young OF who is expendable because the Twins have Jenkins and Rodriguez on the way with Wallner, Martin, Larnach and possibly Kirilloff either already on the team or on the doorstep. The Twins get a 26 year old SP in Cabrera who takes the #5 spot in the rotation and pushes Paddack to the #6 SP role which frees Varland to be a beast in the bullpen for 2024. Cabrera has STUFF. He just needs to be more consistent with his command and become more efficient. Maybe the Twins can unlock that. Getting Sanchez and or Weathers just adds more pitching depth to the Twins. Weathers could find his way into the bullpen right away and at 24 years old still has SP potential. This also allows the Twins to just hang onto Kepler and see what 2024 brings. If Kepler has a year like 2023 it would be tremendous. When 2025 rolls around Emmanuel Rodriguez could very well be taking his place. The Twins now roll into 2024 with a rotation of Lopez, Bauer, Ryan, Ober and Cabrera. The bullpen is Duran, Varland, Stewart, Funderburk, Jax, Theilbar, Alcala. Kepler is still in RF. Wallner in LF. Buxton--who knows, maybe Adam Duval is signed as a RH OF bat to play CF/LF allowing Wallner to sit against LH pitching and as Buxton insurance. But the rotation and bullpen are division champion caliber. You haven't moved Julien, Miranda, Kirilloff, Lee etc...so you've got another year to see what unfolds. But as Fatbat stated, all this is possible if the Twins just hit the "EASY BUTTON." Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Edward Cabrera 26 Majors SP Medium 5 31.6 15.7 15.8 12.7 15.8 19 Sixto Sanchez 26 Majors SP Medium 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 Ryan Weathers 24 Majors LRP SP Low 5 3.5 3.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 Total Value: 16.1 Marlins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Yasser Mercedes 18 Minors OF 0 0 0 8 6.4 8 9.6 Total Value: 17.4

If I operate under the assumption that Miami was willing to trade Luzardo, a 26 year old LH starting pitcher with 3 years of team control, even up for Pasquantino (.832 OPS in 2023)I know the Twins can beat that deal. Julien (.839 OPS) is as good if not a better hitter than Vinnie and he plays a more difficult position. And Julien is 2 years younger than Vinnie. If I traded Julien, I'd be fine with Polanco to begin the season at 2B and when Brooks Lee is ready I can always trade Polanco at the deadline. Maybe Jorge is having a great season, nothing says I can't keep him for 2025 ! The Marlins need a catcher. If I could deal Jeffers one for one to Miami for Luzardo I do it in a heart beat. We have two more years of Vasquez who will bounce back "somewhat" offensively this coming season. I can live with a catching tandem of Vasquez/Camargo if it puts Luzardo #2 in our rotation. Having a catcher that can hit is a luxury for most teams. I'd love to see Jeffers carry that hitting stroke forward. But if I can leverage him for Luzardo? Hello, Jair Camargo!! I do not believe there is any truth to the Vinnie for Luzardo possible one for one deal. But if there is, I'm calling the Marlins and I'm going to be a pain in the tush until I get a deal done. A LH starting pitcher, 26 years old, team control for THREE YEARS. Yup. I'm on board with that.

I agree with those who have posted something to the effect that "If we trade valued assets, let's not settle for a #4 or #5 SP." Kremer is a back of the rotation guy. In contrast, if you traded for someone like Bieber, or gave up a little more for a Miller/Woo type of young, controllable Seattle SP you would at least be acquiring a pitcher who has the potential to be a #2 or #3 as opposed to someone who will never rise above Ryan, Ober and Varland, and probably not over Paddack & Festa. As Twins fans, we all HOPE Ryan can figure out how to limit HR's and finally take that step to be a #2 or even a #1. He hasn't been ale to put a full season together yet. Ober looks to be solid. Paddack flashed some ability once upon a time as did Louie Varland. But the stated goal of the FO is to bring in a #2 to slot in behind Lopez and allow the Twins more time to gauge whether Ryan will ever take that step. Bieber could be that #2. He's not even 30 yet. But the velocity drop last year concerns me. Giolito could be that workhorse #2 that K's 200 guys and keeps you in enough games to win a lot of them. Montas and Bauer would also be potential fits. The question with our FO is always "who is going to be left when we finally decide to join the party?" If all the pretty girls have been taken, we will find ourselves dancing with JA Happ or Dylan Bundy. We've got to decide WHICH GIRL we want to dance with, before we end up disappointed. Sometimes I just think the Twins philosophy isn't that we're too shy to ask that girl to dance. We just can't decide WHO we really want to dance with.

The 3rd trade is not realistic. I had listed some trade options for Luzardo in another post that were very similar to these and came to the conclusion that he's just too expensive a piece to go after. I view Vinnie Pasquantino much like Kirilloff. A great swing but injury prone. Vinnie alone wouldn't be near enough to bring back Luzardo. site We have guys on here (myself included) that post some pretty unrealistic stuff. I don't mind. Swapping ideas back and forth is why we love this site. Nobody goes to jail for a "bad take." So in my post, after determining that the price for Luzardo was just going to be too high, I recalibrated to lesser targets with a suggestion on Trevor Rogers (in the hopes that the Twins get the 2021 version and NOT 2022-2023). Or that we should set our sights on affordable but unproven pitchers like Miller or Woo from Seattle. The problem with that, is that the Twins stated goal is to find a #2 to slot behind Lopez. Miller and Woo wouldn't even slot ahead of Ryan. Someone like Logan Allen (Cleveland) would also be more affordable but even though he's young and talented, still wouldn't begin the season starting ahead of Joe Ryan. Acquiring Alcantara would be a brilliant move for the future. He's got a REALLY affordable contract for the next 5 years for a guy with his kind of talent. But he's out all of 2024 following Tommy John. The Twins have a division crown to defend and Alcantara doesn't help them in 2024. How about trading Polanco to the Guardians for Shane Bieber. Bieber is going to be dealt by Cleveland. He battled through some injuries and velo issues last year, but he's just 29 and makes an affordable $12 million in 2024. But in 2022 he was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA and solid WHIP. if he does well we can try to convince him to stay but at least we're not giving up young talent for potentially one season. Polanco's $10 million dollar salary is pretty even match. Cleveland just shifted Gimenez to SS after trading Rosario at the deadline last year. They need offense and they need a 2B. Julien and Lee have 2B covered for the Twins in 2024. If the Guardians like Polanco, they can pick up his option for 2025.

Great Post Zach. I have liked Montas and would put him in the tier of Giolito and Bauer that I think would slot as our #2 behind Lopez. I also like the idea of getting TWO SP's to allow the move of Varland to the bullpen for 2024. This by no means would be a permanent move for Varland. In fact, if Matt Canterino can finally stay healthy and he's called up by June, I could see Varland being gradually lengthened out to return to a SP role in 2025. Another idea I just posted in a different thread was a one-for deal of Polanco for Shane Bieber. It grades as an over-pay for the Twins but it could help both teams, even if it's the dreaded intra-division trade. Cleveland needs offense, and Gimenez has moved from 2B to SS. Polanco is a good fit. Bieber started 21 games last year, battled reduced velocity and other injuries and went 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA. His WHIP was an unimpressive 1.23. But he knows how to pitch. He's just 29 years old and will be an unrestricted FA after the 2024 season. It's a risk for the Twins. They would be hoping they get the 2019-2022 version of Bieber. In 2022 he started 31 games, was 13-8 with a 2.88 ERA. THAT'S your #2 SP behind Lopez (he might be your #1). If Bieber is working out, you can try to work out a deal before he hits FA. If not, you haven't given up a young asset to rent him for one season. A trade for Bieber and signing of Montas/Bauer/Giolito would really strengthen and lengthen the Twins rotation and bullpen. Either way, Julien and Brooks Lee will have 2B covered in 2024 for the Twins. Bieber $12 million salary for 2024 isn't much different than Polanco's $10 million. And in 2025 you're one year closer to Varland and David Festa competing for the #5 slot in the rotation. I like Adell as a cheap trade option. I also like Adam Duval as a FA signing if the cost is not prohibitive. And I wonder what the move of Camargo to the 40 man means for Vasquez AND Jeffers. One one hand, you could trade Jeffers to the Marlins in a package for a big time SP. On the other, Vasquez is over-paid yet is great at handling pitchers and framing strikes. It's no coincidence our SP's did better last year with a vet like Vasquez behind the plate. I think they keep them both and Camargo is called up if one of them gets hurt. I also agree with Fatbat that it would be great to see the Twins dive in and get something done rather than "waiting for the market to define itself." But the players and their agents often choose to sit still until somebody signs for more money than we could have imagined. Ohtani is the easy example, but I would use the Maeda signing instead. The Tigers are going to regret that signing. They over paid when they could have gone for a better option like Giolito/Montas/Bauer. Each is younger than Maeda and would have been a better investment.

I don't think tendering Farmer was a mistake. He's still a decent SS and hits lefties pretty well. His versatility around the IF gives him value. There are still teams looking for a SS so a trade is very likely to me. The fact the Twins haven't made a move of any kind yet is very consistent with the Twins M.O. I don't think anything happens until there are a few more big moves that sharpen the market parameters (Yamamoto and Snell signing, Bellinger signing) and the Twins don't sit down at the table until early 2024. I agree with the sentiment that our #1 priority is a frontline SP. Getting that guy who could be our #2 could be accomplished either by trade or FA. But the kind of guy we can get varies depending on which route you take. A veteran FA like Giolito or Bauer is the type of pitcher you could slot at #2. But they're not jumping at a Twins offer of $15 million per year until some big pitching dominos fall. A trade is more likely to involve a Miller/Woo from Seattle or a Trevor Rogers from Miami level pitcher than a Corbin Burnes, Jesus Luzardo, or Logan Gilbert level trade. Miller, Woo or Rogers while talented, haven't done enough to be considered better than Joe Ryan to this point, so any deals involving them would slot them BEHIND Ryan in the rotation. Last season improved Kepler's value and lessened Polanco's somewhat. I think we're all correct in assuming that we're not getting Jesus Luzardo for Kepler and Polanco. Maybe Trevor Rogers, but then you're banking on the 2021 version of Rogers, not the 2022-2023 version. That's the tough position the Twins find themselves in. If they wait too long in FA they won't get a pitcher who will come close to what they need. They would then be squeezed into a position of having to give up more than they would like via trade to get the right pitcher. The veteran SP brings a track record. The trade SP brings potential. At this point, I would expect teams are low-balling the Twins for Kepler and Polanco. I'm willing to trade Polanco for prospects or Garrett Mitchell from the Brewers. To me, Julien is playing 2B and hitting at the top of the order every day. And Brooks Lee either breaks camp with the Twins or joins shortly thereafter possibly moving Julien to 1B. Kepler on the other hand, I'm not selling low on. I have no problem having him on the Twins for all of 2024. If last year wasn't a mirage he will be a valuable player for the Twins to have in 2024 and we're one year closer to Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins. It's too bad the Guardians are a division rival. They need offense, which we could deal them, and they have SP, which we need. Here's a list of Cleveland's SP and their BBTV: Logan Allen 28.4 25 yo. Shane Bieber 5.6 29 yo. Tristen McKenzie 45.3 27 yo. Gavin Williams 46.1 24 yo. Tanner Bibee 42.6 24 yo. Daniel Espino 16.2 22 yo. The obvious target for me is Logan Allen. He's the most affordable and he's 25 years old. The Guardians are probably going to trade Bieber. I think I'd be willing to trade Polanco for Bieber even up. We'd be overpaying slightly, but Cleveland would slide Gimenez to SS (they did last year after trading Rosario) and Polanco becomes they're everyday 2B. The Twins would slot the 29 yo Bieber in at #2 behind Lopez and leave Ryan and Ober at #3 & #4. The Twins could decide mid-season if they would like to offer an extension to Bieber if things are working out. He's only 29. He's the veteran SP that compares to Giolito/Bauer without the immediate outlay of money.

This is good, but you can't project a big trade that moves pieces for something you need. For example, the Twins could trade for a pitcher for this season and sign a FA as well. A couple years go by, Varland, Festa, Raya, one or all three turn out to be pretty good. meanwhile, Ryan and Ober are also doing well. Maybe one of them is traded from an area of depth and strength to get a position player. You just never know...

The Twins trade Jeffers and Julien for a value of 63.0. Luzardo is valued at 63.3 so the trade is essentially even. I think that's too steep, even if it means adding a talented young LH starting pitcher to our rotation. Braxton Garrett is a little less expensive, mid 50's for a value. JD Twins, the Marlins don't need a CF because they moved Jazz Chisholm there last season when they acquired Arraez. Then they discovered that Arraez wasn't a very good 2B so they moved him to 1B and left Jazz in CF. That's why they've been interested in Polanco. They would probably still be interested in Emm-Rod though as a possible corner OF. I think the Twins need 2 SP's for their rotation. Paddack will be limited and while I'm hoping for continued improvement from Ryan, Ober and Varland I would want the depth available to adjust. One pitcher can come via a trade. The other needs to come from FA. The free agent gives the Twins a veteran with a track record who could #2 or #3. The trade should fill the rotation out with someone who could #3-#5. Here's a trade I posted to BBTV that nets the Twins Trevor Rogers: Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Trevor Rogers 26 Majors SP Low 3 32.7 7.5 25.2 20.2 25.2 30.3 Total Value: 25.2 Marlins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Griffin Jax 29 Majors RP Medium 4 32.1 17.8 14.4 11.5 14.4 17.2 Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Christian Vazquez 33 Majors C Low 2 8.9 20 -11.1 -13.3 -11.1 -8.8 Cash 10 Total Value: 22.70 We give the Marlins pieces they need: A catcher, a 2B and a solid bullpen piece plus cash to offset the contracts of Vasquez and Polanco. We add a 26 year old pitcher who was very promising a couple of years ago but has been dogged by injuries the last two seasons. He's our #3 or #4. We also shed $20 million in payroll. That opens up the possibility of adding a FA SP who would be our #2. Our rotation is: Lopez/FA/Ryan/Rogers/Ober/Paddack (6 guys). Varland moves to the pen for 2024 replacing Jax. Camargo is elevated to #2 catcher. It's a risk if Rogers was just a flash in the pan. It's a HR if Rogers regains his 2021 form. He's a LH starting pitcher who would be our #2 if he's 2021 vintage. Lopez/Rogers/FA/Ryan/Ober/Paddack. Varland locking down games with Duran, Funderburk, Stewart and maybe even Canterino. Young lineup intact. Assuming the FA pitcher we sign is for 3-5 years and you have your rotation set for quite awhile. Varland could always move back into the rotation in 2025 depending on how things play out. Festa or Raya could move up, allowing us to trade from a position of strength in our rotation. That kind of value could bring back something GOOD.

The stat that jumps out to me and solidifies the superiority of Julien over Miranda is "CHASE RATE." Julien has much better strike zone discipline than Miranda leading to more walks (a LOT more walks) and a consistently better OBP. Julien has equal power to Miranda and is much more athletic as evidenced by the fielding range, arm strength and running metrics. I agree with you. I would NOT be looking to trade Julien either, BUT...There is Brooks Lee waiting in the wings for SS, 2B, 3B. Lewis could also play any of those and we have a Gold Glove SS (Schobel) in our system as well. We really need to to come up with a solid, long term solution for our #2 SP spot. Polanco isn't going to get us that, he'll at best bring in a #4 #5 type. Someone like Julien or Lee is going to be needed to bring in a big time, young , controllable SP like a Gilbert from Seattle, or a Luzardo or Braxton from Miami. The Twins FO and talent evaluators will need to come to a definitive determination WHO the Twins 2B of the future is. Julien? Or Brooks Lee? Because to get that long term #2 SP means some combination of Julien/Lee and probably Emmanuel Rodriguez/Matt Wallner is what it's going to take to get it done. Having Julien at the top of the Twins lineup for many years to come is something I look forward to. But PITCHING is what builds a winner in baseball. It's why the Twins were division champs and finally won a playoff game last season. To be good to great going forward they need talented pitchers and they need more depth in their farm system. It's why I always respect Cleveland going into a new season.

I wish I could get the time back that it took to read this.

They've only won one World Series in that period because Dave Roberts has the honor of being the manager that is consistently able to get the LEAST out of being provided with the MOST. I could see them signing Yamamoto. Certainly Snell as a fallback failing to sign Yamamoto. And I can't see Kershaw going anywhere but back to the Dodgers. That 1/3 of an inning and 6 runs allowed post season start is just NOT the way he wants to end his Dodgers career. Coming back to the Dodgers in July or so may just be the perfect way for him to be fresh down the stretch for them. Yes, the SP dominos are starting to fall and I could see the Twins remaining very cautious as the market plays out and options disappear from their board. It's always frustrating as Twins fans but it's just "the Twins way."

Grisham is a dumpster fire and the Padres got the Yankees to take him because they knew how desperate the Yanks were to get Soto. I'm not giving up potentially decent players like Mercedes and SWR to take on the dead weight somebody else agreed to just to acquire a top-5 hitter.

Interesting to see a column more suited more to The Huffington Post than Twins Daily. To me if the people that work and live there have this to say about San Francisco who am I to question? I have been there and went to a Cardinals vs Giants game. Beautiful Ballpark. Iconic setting. But you didn't have to wander far from the ballpark to see the filth, poop, needles and homeless. It's there, and the scope of it is humbling.. And that was about 5 years ago. It's undoubtedly worse since then. To try to tell me I didn't really witness it, or if I DID it was only through a political and racist viewpoint from growing up in a little town like Rochester well, I'll just shrug and say "whatever." You can't deny the very REAL rise in crime in many metropolitan areas. You can't avoid the carnage that still remains in downtown Minneapolis after the George Floyd riots. And you can't deny the effect the "defund the police" movement has had on many inner cities. Minneapolis used to have on average about 926 police officers. Today they have less than 500. Fewer police is an open invitation to more crime. And much of that increased crime isn't even being reported or investigated. I don't have statistics to back this up, but I'll bet there are fewer cops on the street in San Francisco than there were 5 years ago. This is reality. So on a slow day for Twins baseball with nothing much happening on the trade or free agent front, I'll close by hoping something happens soon so we can all get the taste of this out of our mouths.

I wouldn't have given Lugo that contract, and though I liked Lee as a future CF and top of the order bat, I wouldn't have given him his contract either. I still think (probably wrongly) that Bauer or Giolito could be signed for the same as Lugo, and I'd rather have either of them in our rotation. I agree with Cory, it certainly LOOKS like they are trying to add someone who could be a #2 or at worst a #3. I think they need two SP for additional depth and I'm not sure if that #2 guy will come via a trade or FA. But I would consider Bauer & Giolito, based on what they have accomplished in their careers to be ahead of Joe Ryan and Baily Ober in our rotation. If we trade Polanco for Edward Cabrera, I see Cabrera as our #5. Even if we expanded the package with Miami to get Max Meyer I would see him as our #5. And, even if we put a package together with Seattle for Miller or Woo, as young and as talented as they are, they would still be our #5 because they haven't accomplished as much as Ryan or Ober. We're not getting Logan Gilbert unless we trade the following: Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Logan Gilbert 27 Majors SP Low 4 108.1 42.1 65.9 52.7 65.9 79.1 Total Value: 65.9 Mariners 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Griffin Jax 29 Majors RP Medium 4 32.1 17.8 14.4 11.5 14.4 17.2 Emmanuel Rodriguez 20 Minors OF 0 0 0 17.1 13.7 17.1 21.5 Edouard Julien 24 Majors OF 6 70.4 35.9 34.5 27.6 34.5 41.4 Total Value: 66 I posted this trade on BBTV just moments ago. I'm betting I get about 10 "Thumbs Down" from Twins fans and probably just about as many from Mariner fans even though a solid bullpen arm, a bat like Julien at 2B and a young corner OF prospect with a good eye and BIG power sure seems like a haul. If I wanted George Kirby instead of Gilbert, just throw in Walker Jenkins and you've got a deal. Gilbert or Kirby would step right in as our #2. But that prospect haul is NOT GOOD for the Twins long term. Better to spend $15-$17 million per year on a Bauer or Giolito type. The other option is to lower our sights via trade for a Woo, Miller, Cabrera, Max Meyer type of young pitcher, but that guy will at least begin the season as our #4 with Paddack #5.

This is an accurate recap of what we have at this point of the off season having made zero moves of note. What we're all waiting to find out is what will the roster look like when we open spring training and what it could look like once we break camp. I'm looking for a trade that will bring back a #2 type SP to the Twins rotation. It is the biggest hole in our roster and the most urgent need to fill. Anything else, like acquiring a CF as Buxton insurance, a bullpen piece and another SP really can't be considered until the Twins acquire that #2 guy for the rotation. It's like the entire FA market holding their collective breath until Ohtani signed. Yes, the Yankees traded for Soto (and Verdugo) but those were moves that showed the Yankees were definitely not in play for Ohtani. I'm not really making a bold prediction that the Twins FO will sit out the top tier and even most or all of the 2nd tier of FA starting pitching. This will frustrate all of us here on TD as we see SP after SP sign with everyone from the Royals and Tigers to the Cardinals, Dodgers and whoever else. We can only HOPE that there is someone decent enough to be our #2 SP. The money has always been on a trade to fill that hole but if we go FA I'd like to see us take a flyer on Trevor Bauer. He's 32 years old, and with his baggage could probably be had for below market rate. There is not much to choose from in position player FA, but I think an affordable gamble would be OF Adam Duval. He's capable of playing all 3 OF positions, and could give the Twins a RH power bat that could fill LF or CF against LH pitching. The question remains "who will the Twins eventually trade, who do they get, and how much money will they effectively shave from the current payroll allowing them to afford the pitcher that comes back?

Both 1967 and 1963 should have probably made it into the top 10. Good hitting. POWER. And good pitching. 1969 was probably Boswell's best season as a Twin but 1967 sure was for Merritt as well as Dean Chance. I wonder how much the Twins could have benefitted by having Tony Oliva up in 1962 but certainly 1963. The Yankees were still the class of the A.L. in 1960-1964 but Oliva would have hit no matter what year the Twins called him up. Add his 1964 season to the 1963 lineup and WOW ! He might have still been a little rough in RF, but Tony-O would have HIT. Allison, Hall and Killebrew formed the OF. Vic Power and Rollins held down 1B & 3B. (Rollins hit .307) (Power hit .270 with Gold Glove defense). More than anything, the Twins could have used a DH back in those 60's years. The Yanks won by 13 games and the White Sox had tremendous pitching, but add Oliva to that lineup and I wonder...

It will be interesting to see how the Twins FO approaches the teams needs this off season because there isn't just a one-solution, straight forward approach. I think Varland would be ELECTRIC in the pen and become the 8th inning guy/occasional closer and push Jax back to a 7th inning role with Funderburk and Stewart. That said, Varland's ceiling is a solid #3 SP. Devin Williams is possibly the top closer in baseball. While he would be a great addition, with 2 years of control, he's redundant when you already have Duran. Julien straight up would get him, but I just don't see that happening. So if the Twins don't go for a Williams type trade to solidify the back end of the pen, thus pushing everyone down a peg and strengthening the front end as well as the back, the next strategy is to acquire a SP. They could do that via trade or with a FA signing. The most cost effective FA signings with the ability to be a #2 or #3 that I've expressed interest in are Lucas Giolito and Trevor Bauer. Giolito's baggage is a horrible end of last season. Bauer's baggage needs no further explanation. Both would be guys capable of throwing 150 innings or more. In Golito's case probably 200. But what is a reasonable cost for these guys with Ohtani's recent signing and Yamamoto, Snell, Montgomery and others still on the market? Assume for a moment that we sign Bauer or Giolito. The rotation becomes: Lopez, Bauer/Giolito, Ryan, Ober and Paddack. Varland is either your #6 SP or your 8th inning man in the pen. The depth you have is all unproven minor leaguers and Paddack reaching 100 innings pitched is considered his high end. You still need another SP even if Varland is the #6. Do you deal Max Kepler for Edward Cabrera? Do you make a bigger deal to bring in Miller or Woo from Seattle? Max Meyer instead of Cabrera from Miami? When you analyze where the Twins are for their rotation you can easily see that losing Gray and Maeda means they need at least TWO SP options through trades and/or FA. As much as I would love to see Varland blowing hitters away at the back end of our pen, I can see we need to keep him a SP at this time. The secret weapon lurking in the Twins future bullpen is Matt Canterino. I've read where they still consider him a SP. I just don't see it. One of Canterino or Varland needs to be groomed to be a back end bullpen guy. If I have to choose, I'm making that guy Canterino and I'm seeing what I've got from Varland as a SP in 2024. If Bauer or Giolito are signed as a FA I imagine a 3-year deal would be acceptable to both the Twins and the pitcher. What I would love to see the Twins do is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2-3 year deal where they pay him $10 million for 2024 just to rehab and have him ready to step into that top of the rotation spot in 2025 & 2026. BUT...it's not my money. I can spend the Pohlad's money far too easily. But I think it would be a great strategy for 2025. The other possibility would be to sign Mahle for a very cost effective deal and see if he could be available and healthy for the 2nd half of 2024. I only do this if I'm fairly certain Mahle can pitch effectively for July, August and September. The Twins have trade chips in Kepler, Polanco, Farmer and possibly Vasquez (if they think Camargo is ready and they can get VALUE for Vasquez). Certainly some, and maybe ALL of these guys will be traded. There are MANY different ways the Twins FO could go to address their off season needs. Which ones will they choose?

(It didn't hurt having Walter Johnson at the top of their rotation). Yeah, 2010 will ALWAYS be the year of Morneau. He was having another MVP season and that concussion ended his season and even with the N.L. batting title later, it was clear he was never quite the same hitter. His power had been sapped. With the way Mauer and Morneau hit LH pitching, having a Mauer, Morneau and Thome 3-4-5 wouldn't have mattered. And Thome in his limited plate appearances was still "vintage" Thome. What might have been if Morneau had played the entire season healthy. Having one of the top closers in the game in Nathan would have made a great bullpen even better. It further makes the point that the Pohlad's have never made a BIG trade at the deadline to bring one or two guys in that could have made a difference. When your deadline deal claim to fame is Shannon Stewart, that kind of says it all. Maybe we would have still lost to the Yankees, but we'll never know, will we.