TopGunn#22

This only works (Vasquez for Jansen) if the Twins are serious about moving Duran to the rotation. Just saw a post on DN regarding THAT. The Twins only tick Duran off if they bounce him all over the place as a "high leverage hitman." Duran has earned his chance to start or close, but not to be jerked around. I think Boston's familiarity with Vasquez is what gives this type of move any legs. But again, it also only works for the Twins unless Duran transitions to the rotation as our #2. What would the end game be beyond this season? Jansen isn't coming back. Who's the Twins closer for 2025? Canterino? Varland? Back to Duran? There is no guarantee Duran would make a seamless, injury free transition to #2 starter throwing 150+ innings. There's less uncertainty if Canterino stays healthy and pitches well. Same with Varland. But with all the risk for the Twins, the unknowns, and the addition of $6 million in payroll I'd rather just stick with the status quo if Vasquez as a part time, $10 million dollar catcher and Duran as my closer.

Just wrote about Montgomery and Snell on another post this morning bemoaning the fact that it's just bad for baseball in general that those two pitchers (and Bellinger) were still out there in mid-January. Then this hits! I would love them to sign either of those pitchers but I'm realistic enough not to expect it.

This should be an exciting time for baseball fans. Instead, it's like watching paint dry, inside your house on a beautiful summer day. Let's face it. Owning a pro sports franchise is pretty much a license to print money nowadays. Some teams, like the Dodgers or Yankees have tremendous revenue advantages due to the insane amount of money their local TV and media deals bring them. If you're Cincinnati, Pittsburgh or Kansas City this is a real problem. If you're the Twins, in a mid-market that budgets in ways often difficult to understand, it's frustrating. Consider this: Cincinnati is a city of about 300,000 people. I know this this because just this morning I heard on the news that each day, about 300,000 people cross our southern border illegally, and it was mentioned, that's roughly the size of Cincinnati. Mpls/St. Paul has a population of 3,691,918. That's TEN TIMES the population of Cincinnati ! Now I know that doesn't mean you should just multiply the Twins payroll by 10x Cincinnati's but the Twins are NOT a small market team. I'd love to see a way that MLB could make it possible for the Reds or Royals to be able to sign a guy like Snell, Montgomery or Bellinger. The Twins, based on market size alone SHOULD be able to compete for either of those 2 lefty starters. I know there is a luxury tax and some form of revenue sharing, but something is not working right when the Dodgers can sign Ohtani, Yamamoto and Teoscar Hernandez and trade for Tyler Glasnow's $25 million dollar 2024 contract. And the Dodgers probably aren't done. It's fair to point out that despite winning a World Series in the Covid season of 2020 the Dodgers haven't won a full-season World Series since 1988. The Yankees since 2009. That's a testament more to how poorly these teams have been managed both on the field and in the C-Suite despite their enormous revenue advantages. Baseball ownerships and front offices just don't seem to care about the fan. Imagine the excitement in Minnesota if on Friday the Twins announced a 3-year deal with Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery?? We won our division last year. We finally won a playoff game. We need a SP. We REALLY need a LH SP ! There are two just sitting there. But there is inertia in MLB. Nothing's happening. Derek Falvey just stated that the FA market seems to break later and later each year but that he fully expected the market to MOVE by mid-January. Well Derek, it's January 17th today. That's about as "Middle of January" as you can get in Minnesota. Instead, all I have to comfort my baseball and Twins fandom are "wind chill factors." Ugghhh!

Great topic Nick ! I've read everyone's comments and I align most closely to NashvilleTwin and Dman. To me, this isn't a very difficult question. The "potential" for Em-Rod is too great to trade him going into the 2024 major league/minor league season. We would NOT get a clear #2 SP back with just Em-Rod alone. We'd have to give up more. With Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland, rotation reinforcements are needed. But not at the cost of the potential upside Em-Rod brings. I'd let the 2024 minor league season play out. Em-Rod's value could skyrocket or it could crater. I'm willing to take that risk. I certainly prefer having a 20-year slugger who already shows patience at the plate over a free-swinger like Eddie Rosario. And it's quite possible that as Em-Rod moves up in the minors he will see pitchers with better command and "naturally" become a little more aggressive early in the count. The idea that the Twins have a young core like Lewis, Jeffers, Julien and Wallner already up, with Lee, Em-Rod and Jenkins on the fast track is not only exciting, it's extremely advantageous for the near future. Who else could emerge from this group? I like having a Platinum Gold Glove winning SS like Noah Miller in the system as well. It would be fantastic if the Twins just said, "the heck with it, we're signing Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell on Thursday!!" All it would cost is money, which can be made up down the line with a TV deal of some kind and increased attendance and concessions/souvenirs. It would bolster that rotation with a veteran arm for the 2024 season and beyond while giving extra time for Festa, SWR and Raya (not to mention Varland) to develop. Sadly, at the price of Monty or Snell it's Just. Not. Going. To. Happen. Not with the Twins. This is why trading a Polanco or Kepler for an Alex Manoah lottery ticket makes so much sense for 2024 and beyond. And/or signing a Trevor Bauer or Michael Wacha to a one or two year deal. Horde those prospects. Let them develop, and see what your lineup looks like in 2026. it could be REALLY SPECIAL.

Matthew Trueblood makes a good point that the change in leadership with the Marlins may have altered their short term and long term goals and outlook. If indeed, they are not willing to pay Arraez through several arbitration hearings as his price goes up, who else may they be unwilling to pay? Even if it's someone on a 5 year, relatively affordable contract to most baseball teams but burdensome to the Marlins?? I'm referring to Sandy Alcantara their former Cy Young winning pitcher. Due to Tommy John surgery, Alcantara is set to miss all of 2024 but should be ready to go for 2025. On BBTV's he's a whopping negative 39 in value with having to pay him $11 million in 2024 just to rehab. To me, this is a tremendous opportunity. I could unload Christian Vasquez (they need a catcher badly) or Jorge Polanco (they still need offense and Arraez could play more 1B/DH) straight up, one for one for Alcantara. The Marlins COULD consider this because they'd have 2 years of cost certainty with either Vasquez or Polanco. Maybe you throw in a Larnach? If the Twins would be willing to be patient with an eye on 2025 and promote Camargo in a Vasquez centered deal or a Polanco deal the payoff in 2025 would be tremendous. Imagine a rotation with Lopez and Alcantara at the top with Ryan and Ober having one more year of development?? Add in one more year of Varland and Paddack as well as Festa and SWR being one year closer and you not only have depth...you have TALENT !!! I would like the Twins to think in terms of a 5 year plan and not so much on year to year. One year rental players just leave you with the same hole the following year. (Michael Taylor). Look for bargains where a long term gain is beneficial as opposed to a short term gain. The Marlins very well might not even consider this. But who on TD thought we'd be reading about Luis Arraez being available after winning his 2nd Batting Title in a row?

I can't say that I disagree with you in principal Major League Ready, but Twins fans need only look to our beloved Kent Hrbek to see that not all people really care. Old Tigers fans would point to Mickey Lolich and say "give that fat guy the ball in any big game." Baseball is a game that is technique driven. Players don't have to be Bo Jackson to stand out. A great physique is never a problem, but Hrbek showed you can be fat and out of shape but still pretty darn good.

It's fun to dream but there really isn't a positional fit (which is what made him available to Miami in the first place) and one has to wonder...for an offensively challenged team like the Marlins, who reportedly are still looking for bats, why are they souring on Arraez already? He had what will probably turn out to be his career year in 2023. Why would they move him now? When you already have Julien with Lee on the way and Polanco soon to be traded, you can't afford to spend ANY draft capital on something that is duplicative. It's NOT that Luis is without value or would be loved again if he returned. We need pitching. We just don't need a LH hitting, 2B/1B/DH at this time.

I would do Polanco for Manoah for sure and I think it actually works better for the Blue Jays. Their OF is fairly well set with Kiermeier in CF, Springer in RF and Varsho in LF. What they really need is a 2B with some pop. Merrifield did OK last year but he's a FA. Biggio just hasn't seized the opportunity. Manoah would be a worthwhile gamble for the Twins. His upside is a solid #2 or #3 depending on how Joe Ryan pitches. His downside is a complete bust and out of baseball. (as was shown last year). He's young, so he's got time on his side and I like how the Twins have been able to take pitchers and find a few things to make them better (Pablo, Sonny Gray). Kepler or Polanco on their own are not bringing back a Luis Castillo or Shane Bieber. Manoah's potential upside is worth the risk. I would still like an affordable FA signing (Bauer, Wacha, ??) to add one more SP for depth just in case Manoah doesn't work out and Paddack spends time on the I.L. but a group of SP like Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Manoah, Bauer, Paddack, Varland, (that's 7) and Festa and SWR for sure in St. Paul (maybe Dobnak?) would give the Twins enough depth in their rotation for the season. In the end, I would prefer to deal Polanco because Julien is the starter, Farmer could offer a RH platoon, and Brooks Lee is coming. Trading Kepler necessitates adding someone like an Adam Duval as a RH outfield bat.

Zoilo had a career year in 1965 but was a pretty good player in several others. Not a one hit or one year wonder. Just a career year.

Yup, include Tyner and also Nick Punto as piranhas. This Twins team SHOULD have been even better. The unwillingness or inability of the Twins ownership and/or the FO to add anything of significance at the trade deadline left a bitter taste in my mouth. As was mentioned, we had the MVP, CY Young and A.L. Batting Champ--None of them a duplicate player. Mauer, Morneau and Santana were as good a triumvirate as Killebrew, Oliva and Versalles, Killebrew, Oliva and Jim Perry (1970 Cy Young) Carew as well. And Puckett, Hrbek and Frank Viola. On top of that, they had the best closer in the history of the Twins in Joe Nathan. If only some additions had been made at the trade deadline to bolster that team, especially with Liriano going down with his injury. That bullpen, led by Nathan, was the BEST bullpen the Twins ever had in a single season. The BEST Twins team that never was. They had a 3-4 year window with that team yet never made a move of any significance to get them over the hump.

I think Rocco "is who he is" which disappoints me somewhat. Even Earl Weaver had guys that could steal a base and he let them. Paul Blair, Don Buford, Merv Rettenmumd, Mark Belanger. In the 70's Weaver unleashed Al Bumbry, Don Baylor and Rich Coggins. In 1973, Earl Weaver, the King of the 3-run HR manager had his Orioles steal 148 bases ! It was very frustrating to me that it took injuries and practically half the season for Rocco to realize that base stealing was "a thing" again. Maybe in the "Age of the Homerun or Strikeout" we can never expect to see the base stealing of the 1980's, but I thoroughly enjoyed seeing the SB make a comeback. Even with the Rocco Baldelli Twins. I'm not so sure that Castro's base stealing will be "mitigated" but it certainly could possibly be "diminished" if his playing time reduces due to better health and production of our regular lineup guys. I still think Castro will play enough that he should surpass 30 steals in 2024. I absolutely disagree with the strategy and philosophy that a manager must stay away from certain players stealing bases in order to keep them healthy. If you're healthy enough to be in the lineup you better be healthy enough to PLAY THE GAME. Buxton and Lewis need to run when the situation presents itself. I've read countless times that Lewis is "6 steps slower" after TWO ACL surgeries. Didn't seem to stop him going from 1st to 3rd on a single to RF. Didn't automatically disqualify him from scoring from 1st on a double to the gap. Julien and Martin have shown the ability to be very effective base stealers in the minors. Rocco's teams will never steal 148 bags in a season, but he DOES have some guys to work with that could lead to a more aggressive base stealing and base running team, and he should embrace that.

I'm not rushing into any trade for either Julien or Lee unless a young, controllable Ace is involved. Someone like Luzardo for example. I'm much more willing to deal Polanco at this point (before he gets hurt) in some sort of package for a decent SP, but one who would not necessarily be a bona fide #2 behind Lopez. It's possible that Julien keeps hitting and his defense improves and he's worth MORE on the open market. It's also possible that Lee's offense takes a big step forward in spring training and either at St. Paul or Target Field to begin the season raising Lee's value. There is no need to be hasty unless a #1 or #2 is being offered (using Luzardo as the example). I WOULD be hasty with Polanco if the right deal came around.

The contract Bryant has means the Rockies are never going to be able to move him unless they pay $100 million of it. On paper, Kris Bryant would be a good fit. RH bat, LF and possibly some 1B in his future. He IS talented. He's just NEVER healthy and already having Buxton means it would never work for the Twins. Larnach is an obvious choice if there is ANYTHING not named Dollander the twins would have interest in. Every day that goes by with E-Rod and Walker Jenkins showing promise and improvement, is a day that hastens any usefulness Larnach may have for the Twins. I just don't think there's anything on the roster or in the mid to high minors in Colorado even worth Larnach. I'll have to check on this a little more.

I'd also like to add that I agree with this comment from @chpettit19: "I'd treat him like every other starter in spring and if he's showing no struggles at the end of it I'd have no problem letting him go 125 if that's what my medical people are telling me he can do. If he can make 18 starts the first half of the year working his way up to 5 innings a start he'd be on track to take a rotation spot in 2025 after having been a bullpen weapon for the 2nd half of 2024. He's more talented than Varland. I'd much rather have Canterino in my 2025 rotation with Varland in the pen than the other way around." If I'm the Twins, I'm using Varland and Canterino as barometers for each other. Not that either one DETERMINES what the other will become, but more as a kind of balance between the two. Varland as already built up the innings to become a SP. But he struggles with giving up HR's and his command isn't consistently good enough. We all agree that SP's are more valuable than RP's but it also depends on how "good" each of those pitchers are in their role. The Twins have determined that Duran is more valuable closing out games. If Canterino or Varland becomes a Devin Williams type of 8th inning guy, they are more valuable than a 4th or 5th SP. Where I differ slightly with chpettit19 is that if Canterino is throwing bullets in spring training and early on in St. Paul, I'd just get him up to the Twins. Throwing 4-5 inning starts in July is not a bad strategy, in fact it's quite good. But if Canterino is lights out early on, I'd get him up, start by giving him 6th or 7th inning work in one-inning spurts and if things keep going well, get him in that 8th inning eventually. Varland continues to build on innings as a SP and is the first arm you call upon if needed. And again, a LOT of this is dependent on what the Twins do to add to their starting rotation before spring training.

Great topic Ted ! I'm allowing that you just wanted to supply a "possible" call up in each month for discussions sake and don't really expect ALL of them to be called up. I think I would focus on Lee, Martin and Canterino. Matt Canterino: April, to me, is too aggressive but not completely out of the question. His doctor said he could be allowed to pitch up to 125 innings this upcoming season. That's interesting, since he's never actually been anywhere near that number his entire professional career. The Twins say they haven't given up on him as a possible SP. That's interesting, but considering the success that Duran has had, I'm taking that with a grain of salt. Canterino to the bullpen means you can be "all in" on Louie Varland as a SP for at least the next 2 seasons. Plus, I still expect the Twins to make some kind of move on the SP market either by trade (most likely) or FA. Canterino's stuff is just too good to ignore. If he proves his health in spring training and in St. Paul the numbers will be there and he's a Twin sometime in May. Austin Martin: He's the most likely candidate to break camp with the Twins because of the strong chance there will be "something" wrong with Buxton during spring training. I like his on-base skills and hitting him 9th to begin with would be fine with me. I think his athletic profile shows he could be a plus CF. If his on base skills impress (like Julien's did) you can always move him to the top or #2 of the lineup with Julien. That's some serious table-setting. April or May for Austin Martin. Brooks Lee: This is very dependent on whether or not Polanco is traded. I expect Polanco to be traded before spring training. That leaves Julien as the fulltime 2B. Each of these guys and their advancement will require at minimum a solid spring training. What changes Lee's dynamic is if he flat out impresses in spring training and then continues to do so in St. Paul. The other factor is what is done with Farmer. Castro can cover 2B and SS to some degree, but not like Farmer. If Farmer is also traded, and Lee impresses in spring training and then at St. Paul, the Twins will need someone like him to cover SS, 2B and 3B. I think May is realistic for Brooks Lee. The last guy I'll address that I think actually has a chance in 2024 is Severino. And as others have already pointed out this comes down to Kirilloff and Miranda. If one or both have health issues this creates a problem. This is also where the Twins could be or should be somewhat conflicted how to handle Julien. The optimal strategy for Julien would be to have him concentrate exclusively on 2B and improving defensively. However, Brooks Lee isn't going to be traded for a SP. It's not happening. So with Lee lurking as the superior defender the alternate strategy with Julien would be to work him at 1B as well. Severino has great power and probably too much swing & miss, but there are few power hitters who don't. If 1B becomes a problem due to continued health issues with Kirilloff and Miranda is the better pivot Julien to 1B and Lee to 2B? I think it is. And it will be obvious if Lee is raking at St. Paul.

JD, you make good points, but I would counter that Ray has much greater value than what the Giants gave up for him simply because he will only be available for half of the coming season and the Giants are clearly banking on having him longer. The Mariners have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller and DeSlcafani in addition to Emerson Hancock. They have been linked to Blake Snell as he is a Seattle native. They are cutting costs so it's not unreasonable to speculate that they may be open to trading Castillo as much to cut $24 million in payroll as it is open up a spot for Snell. I agree, the acquisition of Raley probably means they are out on Kepler. But a trade of Polanco and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Castillo, or a deal straight up for Julien is not unreasonable either. I'm not downplaying Lopez. Rather, I'm highlighting what a tremendous rotation the Twins would have with BOTH. There are certainly shortcomings with the trade simulator of Baseball Trade Values but for the vast majority of us who don't really have a clue how baseball front offices truly value their assets it's at least a starting point. Miami thinks they can contend for a Wild Card because they also have great pitching depth. Alcantara is missing the entire season. His "value" at present is -39.1 (that's Negative 39.1). Luzardo's value is +63.3. Alcantara's value has never been, nor will it ever be as low as it is, because not only is he missing 2024 but there's no guarantee he will make it back to the level he pitched at previously. Does Miami have the "patience" to wait for him. I've outlined how the Twins, in the early 70's didn't have the patience to wait for Jim Kaat and Luis Tiant and it cost them. I think it's a gamble worth taking. Miami needs a catcher, and Vasquez is is only a negative 10 in value and Larnach is a plus 3.6. Flawed as BBTV may be, it's a vast overpay for the Twins. I would even be willing to trade Polanco to Miami straight up, an even greater overpay. Polanco's $10 million dollar salary for 2024 is a one-million dollar surplus to Alcantara's. Miami adds a solid, switch hitting bat to their lineup for a player who isn't available for 2024. How would Miami feel about that? In the end, we're all just 12-year old boys trading baseball cards. The Twins FO doesn't read Twins Daily and say "You know, that TopGunn#22 guy sure has some GREAT ideas. Let's call Seattle, and then call Miami and see what they think?" :) Nobody ever thought the Orioles would trade Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson or the Cards would trade Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock. But it's always fun to speculate.

Thumbs Up david borton !!

It's interesting to see how Seattle is playing this so far. They are a team who clearly thinks they can compete in 2024. And probably not just for a division championship, especially with the pitching they have. The problem they ran into last season and couldn't overcome was a very anemic offensive team. They could certainly benefit from the length Polanco and/or Kepler or a Larnach could add to their current assortment of misfit hitters. Teoscar Hernandez was a massive fail for them in 2023. Suarez was a fail. They have the rotation and the bullpen to really be formidable in the playoffs if they could just have enough offense to scratch out some runs. It's somewhat similar to the Dodger teams of the 60's. Great rotation. Good bullpen. Who did you FEAR in their lineup? Wills? Willie Davis? Ron Fairly? Jim Lefebvre? Those were their BEST options. Very few people could name 2 other hitters. This current Twins FO has had the stones to deal a defending A.L. Batting Champ to get a top of the rotation starter. The Twins FO in the 60's made deals for an Ace (Dean Chance-we gave up a fading Jimmie Hall, Don Mincher and Geno Cimoli) and Chance won 20 games his first season with the Twins. We then traded an up and coming lefthander, Jim Merritt to the Reds to get a much needed upgrade at SS (Leo Cardenas) to start the 1969 season. Even though Merritt won 20 games in 1970, the Twins never regretted the 3 solid seasons they got from Cardenas (1969-1971). I would agree that Julien has already passed Polanco up. We've got enough depth to withstand trading him. Trading Kepler as well is really where the crunch begins. One of those bats being absent the twins lineup in 2023 is O.K. I'd offer that Julien will far surpass what Polanco will provide. Julien straight up for Castillo would be an overpay for the Twins. The Mariners would either have to send some money over to offset the $24 million dollar discrepancy between salaries. Probably $12-$15 easily. But for Castillo, I'd consider Julien straight up if a significant amount of cash was coming over with Brooks Lee waiting in the wings. Going into 2024 there is no need to have Julien, Lee AND Polanco.

I rec'd DJL44 not because I totally agree with the trades, but because I like his thought process in how he could see this unfolding. I have a different take on what I think the Twins should do to take advantage of this. First, for those claiming Ryan Bliss made Polanco unpalatable to the Mariners, this trade with the Giants proves them wrong. Second, acquiring Haniger doesn't necessarily mean the Mariners wouldn't be interested in Kepler. A Kepler/Haniger platoon in RF could be quite potent for Seattle. It also shows how willing the Mariners are to cut payroll if they would part with a former Cy Young winner for a broken down Haniger and DeSclafani. The time is now for the Twins to strike for Luis Castillo. Replace Sonny Gray with the pitcher who was deemed his superior in every way in Cincinnati. Go get Luis Castillo and put him at the top of your rotation, ahead of Pablo Lopez. I'd love to see the Twins rolling into the post season with Castillo and Lopez pitching games 1 & 2. Maybe Seattle wouldn't be willing to accept BOTH Kepler and Polanco in a deal for Castillo as that would only save them $4 million or so. But start the talks in earnest and bring a true Ace to the Twins rotation. Dipoto has stated he will NOT be trading Miller or Woo. Kirby and Gilbert are too expensive (trade wise) for the Twins. The target for the Twins should be Castillo. Not DeSclafani.

Great post Lou ! Interesting players to consider and good comments. I'm in agreement with Doc Bauer and I've made several posts regarding going after Luis Castillo. If you approach this thinking that we have a massive hole in our rotation with the departure of Sonny Gray why not make a blockbuster move and acquire the pitcher who was always considered his superior in every way in Cincinnati. Castillo would be our #1 pushing Lopez to #2. If the Twins are going to give up Kepler or Polanco, we all agree it has to be for a player of consequence. Why not Castillo? I think Seattle is willing to deal him. They just traded Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger (welcome home Mitch) and Anthony DeSclafani. Getting DeSclafani is key here. He's a back of the rotation piece and depth in case they DO trade Castillo. A trade of Kepler AND Polanco with a prospect like Prielipp included would net Seattle about a $4 million cut in payroll. Is that enough for them? Or would they want one of Kepler and Polanco and a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez to save more like $14 million? For the Twins, acquiring a pitcher of Castillo's talent and only adding $4 million to the payroll would be tremendous. I'll say this again: The Twins won the division last year and in 2020 because of pitching. We have young emerging hitters and it's reasonable to expect a better offensive year out of Correa and even Buxton (it couldn't be any worse than 2023). If we pitch, we're in every game. Castillo would be a tremendous addition for 2024 and beyond. Duval is someone I've mentioned before, but $8 million seems a bit high for him. No-at that price. Soler would be a great RH power bat, but anyone who has been primarily a DH isn't a fit with Buxton on the roster. If our DH spot was wide open, 550 AB's for Soler there would be fine. Stroman, to me, seems too expensive even at a lower price. I would prefer Castillo (obviously) or even a cheaper Trevor Bauer. I'm not a big fan of one-year contracts because I prefer cost certainty going forward and if it works, you're just dealing with they same problem one year later. But in specific circumstances they work. One year of Bauer would allow one additional year of growth for Louie Varland, David Festa, Marco Raya, as well as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. It would also allow the Twins to use Varland in the bullpen and for spot starts. Maybe 100 innings. Varland in the pen means you have no need for Brebbia (especially with the Staumont signing). I like Hoskins, but would like to see the Kirilloff/Miranda development continue. Brebbia is O.K. but a middle man in the bullpen shouldn't be anywhere near a priority over SP and CF. I'll conclude with one more thought. A day or two ago, I mentioned my frustration with the self-imposed salary cut the Twins are imposing. I mentioned how shrewd a move would be if the Twins made a trade with Miami for Sandy Alcantara and had the patience to wait for him to pitch in 2025. Now we see the Giants making a deal for Robbie Ray KNOWING he can't pitch until at least the All Star break. The Giants are either incredibly desperate, or smart like a fox. They got a LH former Cy Young Award starting pitcher in a deal for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSlafani !! Imagine if the Twins were able to get Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins for Trevor Larnach and Christian Vasquez? Alcantara has a VERY favorable contract based on his ability and what the market for pitching would be going forward. ($9 million in 2024, $17 million in 2025 & 2026). I'm not suggesting a rotation of Castillo, Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack for 2025 am I?? Well, maybe I am. But $9 million for Alcantara to rehab for 2024 and $17 million for the next two years sure seems smart like a fox to me. Truthfully, acquiring BOTH Castillo and Alcantara is NOT realistic. But one of them SHOULD be. Our young hitters will be affordable for a couple more years. We've got one or two years before Ryan and Ober start to stretch the budget. If you didn't have to assume a maximum payroll of $125 million the Twins could do some really creative and exciting things.

Stringer, I think you're echoing many of the concerns Twins fans have as this off season of inertia continues. Signing Josh Staumont as a lottery ticket bullpen piece could work out but is certainly not what we as Twins are hoping for. You're correct in pointing out that we haven't replaced either SP lost from our rotation. I've been advocating signing one FA and trading for another because Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland and Paddack while adequate still leaves the Twins with a razor thin margin to replace anyone who spends some time on the I.L. And of the 5 guys listed, only Lopez has shown the consistency to deliver innings. Ryan got to 160 last year and Ober got to 144. That's promising, but it's the first time either has reached those levels, and both spent time on the I.L. Paddack comes into 2024 with specific innings/pitches limits right out of the gate. Starting pitchers are starting to come off the board. Giolito and Montas were 2 guys I thought would be good fits for the Twins. There's still a chance to make a trade and/or sign a FA but the longer the Twins wait out the market the fewer their options will be. Martin "might" be a good platoon in CF with Castro if Buxton crashes and burns again, but a veteran RH bat like an Adam Duval but no move has been made on that front yet either. I think as Twins fans we're all anxious to see some moves get made now that we're in 2024. Decreeing a substantial cut in payroll due to TV revenue "uncertainty" on the heels of winning the division seemed a bit premature and somewhat shortsighted and the fanbase certainly has a right to be disappointed in that approach. Knowing that a Polanco, Kepler, Farmer or Vasquez probably needs to be traded just to even out any additional financial burdens in acquiring a couple of solid starting pitchers is frustrating but we as fans "get it" as well. We want to defend that division title and we want to see the continued growth and improvement of our young core. But each day that goes by without meaningful steps taken to address these roster issues, both frontline talent and depth, is as Joe Mauer would say "Frustrating..."

Yeah, Castillo would be a tremendous addition and probably wouldn't require a Brooks Lee or Julien price tag. This is why the team's self imposed budget cut is problematic following a division championship and their first playoff wins in almost two decades. Castillo is a perfect addition, IF you're willing to take on the salary. If you're already saving $10 million by moving Polanco, that makes a Castillo acquisition more affordable. Seattle doesn't need to include a bunch of cash in the trade (like Boston did with the $17 million to the Braves for Chris Sale). The Mariners move $22 million off their books and take on about $13-$14 million from the Twins. It's also disappointing that it seems like the Twins have no interest (at least as I write this today) in looking at really good pitchers like Sandy Alcantara and Brandon Woodruff. These are guys that normally wouldn't be attainable but are available because they are going to miss 2024 do to injuries. Woodruff, as a free agent, would require a 2-year minimum contract in which you would pay him to rehab for all of 2024 and then pay him a relatively expensive one-year deal for 2025. To me, Alcantara is a very attractive option if you have the patience to wait for the reward. He's going to miss 2024 with Tommy John. He's got a contract that will pay him for the next 3 seasons (2025-2027) that would be extremely affordable given the current market. You would have to pay him $9 million to rehab in 2024. He would then be paid $17 million per season for 2025 & 2026. Finally, there is a Club Option of $21 million for 2027. If it was up to me, I'd offer Polanco straight up for Alcantara right NOW. The Twins gain $2 million of salary relief in the one-for-one swap but get nothing out of Alcantara for 2024. But for the next 2 seasons they get a former Cy Young Award winner who would be our #1 at $17 million per season. And if 2025 & 2026 works out well for Alcantara and the Twins, not only do the Twins pick up his 2027 option at a bargain $21 (compared to CURRENT market values-imagine how affordable $21 million would be 4 years from now). They could even negotiate an extension. Yes, you'd have nothing to show for it in 2024. That would hurt with a team that we expect should be able to defend their division crown. But it would be a brilliant move for the future. Julien is already Twin. Brooks Lee will be one this year. Farmer, if kept is a better defensive player than Polanco and he's a RH hitter. Depth is nice. But the Twins can survive 2024 without Polanco. To add a pitcher of Alcantara's talent at the cost of Polanco would be tremendous. Could the Twins exhibit the patience to make it happen? It brings me back to my youth when the Twins made a blockbuster trade with the Cleveland Guardians and acquired one of my favorite pitchers, Luis Tiant, following the 1969 season. The Twins had just won the very first American League Western Division Crown and they dealt Dean Chance, Bob Miller, Craig Nettles and Ted Uhlaender to the tribe for Tiant and Stan Williams. Williams would have an outstanding 1970 for the Twins but Tiant battled various arm issues to a 7-3 record with a 3.60 ERA. Finally, a broken wrist ended his season. But the Twins couldn't be patient enough to let him get healthy and on March 31st prior to the beginning of the 1971 season, the Twins released him. The Red Sox picked Tiant up and stuck with him through a lousy 1971 season. But in 1972, Tiant went 15-6 with a sparkling 1.91 ERA and went on to be quite a pitcher for the Red Sox in the mid 1970's. Would the Twins have the patience and long range thinking to acquire Sandy Alcantara?

The idea of a Manoah for Polanco trade is possible and sensible. Both teams are taking a risk. Will Polanco stay healthy (or at least reasonably healthy)? Because if he does, he will produce at a level that the Blue Jays would be happy with. And it's a risk for the Blue Jays to give up a 25 year old pitcher who showed some real promise. The Twins are risking depth and a solid switch-hitting bat in their lineup who is VERY affordable at $10 million for 2024 and affords a team option for 2025. If 2024 goes well, it's an easy decision to pick up that option. If not, you have an easy out and move on. Plus, the Twins are risking which Manoah they get. The 2021-2022 version who is All Star caliber or the atrocious 2023 version that couldn't even figure it out in the minors? To me, the Blue Jays are risking a little more than the Twins because of Manoah's youth and potential. So I would say a straight one-for-one deal wouldn't be enough. The Twins will have to overpay somewhat. Twins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Alek Manoah SP 11.8 Total Value: 11.80 Blue Jays NAME POSITION SURPLUS Jorge Polanco 2B 9.4 Josh Winder LRP 3.9 Total Value: 13.30 This is a deal I think could work and I'd be willing to do if I was either team. The Twins could swap Winder out with someone like Larnach (3.6) or Theilbar (3.6) and I wouldn't be surprised if discussions revolved around Polanco and something of a similar value to Larnach-Winder-Theilbar. In my opinion, this is the only type of deal where Polanco IS the primary piece being moved for someone who could be a part of our rotation. But Manoah is NOT the #2 guy in the rotation. At this stage, he's no better than #5 or #6. He has the potential to be #3 or #2, but that's if he becomes the 2021-2022 version of himself again, and that is the top end of hopeful expectation. He may never approach that level of success again.

I believe Castillo should be the target from the Mariners. I disagree with the website that had a couple Mariners EACH having a better WAR than Polanco. Jorge is a solid bat and Ryan Bliss isn't this future All Star ready to step in at 2B. The Mariners are HURTING for offense and they have GAPING holes at 3B and 2B. Larnach returns to the Great Northwest to provide LH pop in a corner outfield and Jax is a key addition to the Mariner bullpen. In a year when the Twins are projecting a payroll of $120-$125 million, Castillo isn't cheap, but he provides cost-certainty and would vault to #1 in our rotation. I'd love to have a playoff rotation headed by Castillo and Lopez. It's rated a slight overpay for the Twins. That's Fine. Seattle gets to further trim payroll and add a couple bats to their lineup. The Twins can replace Jax with a younger pitcher, possibly Varland for 2024 with the addition of Castillo to the top of our rotation. This is the only way Polanco is involved in bringing a good SP to the Twins. He needs to be a piece. Not the centerpiece. It's interesting though, the Mariners have been linked to Blake Snell because he's a Seattle native and just today, MLB Network said they were "in" on Dylan Cease in a possible trade. One (Snell) would cost more than Castillo in payroll. The other (Cease) would be quite costly in prospects. We are in the season of WILD rumors. It's hard to believe anything you hear.

Twins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Luis Castillo SP 22.7 Total Value: 22.70 Mariners NAME POSITION SURPLUS Trevor Larnach OF 3.6 Griffin Jax RP 14.4 Jorge Polanco 2B 9.4 Total Value: 27.40