TopGunn#22

I think DJL44 makes some fair points. Falvey should know Clevinger quite well. If he signs Clevinger, I can accept that. I also don't think DJL44 was being "snide" when he mentioned taking Kirby out of the Twins HOF. Puckett was accused of some truly awful stuff. Sadly, he passed away and with him all that stuff. I just try not to be so judgemental nowadays. Being forgiving is a tough thing to do with some of the stuff going on, but it IS a virtue and I make an effort. I prefer to remember the "good" Kirby Puckett. Clevinger is a pitcher who has the talent to make a difference. He's better than DeSclafani. And while Nick said "don't bother to bring him up" the Twins couldn't do better than a major league minimum contract with incentives for one year of Trevor Bauer. I think either Bauer or Clevinger are the only difference makers in this group and Falvey knows BOTH very well. That he hasn't moved on either is probably all the answer we need. BUT...that was before DeSclafani's "situation." I don't like hearing about DeSclafani having this issue already, but it's not a total shock either. I'm really quite fine with Varland, Canterino and Festa being the depth. But with the Twins flush with the Balley money for 2024, they certainly have the ability to sign someone to add one more "major league" caliber depth arm. Like I said in an earlier post, I'm content to sail into this season with what we have. But MY expectation is that if this season goes well for the Twins and they seem positioned to make a significant run at the World Series, I'm hoping the Pohlad family will FINALLY make a major move at the trade deadline to get us over the hump. When your greatest deadline acquisition is the immortal Shannon Stewart, you don't have a very high bar to clear there. Don Baylor was a shadow of the player he had been when we added him in 1987.

Giving grades before the actual season begins is a good exercise and "everybody does it" even though we all know the real grades come once the season is complete. That said, the tone-deaf messaging certainly deserves an "F." The #1 goal of our off season, by acclamation, was to get a #1 or #2 SP to replace Sonny Gray. Our #2 goal was to find a solid replacement for Buxton should he spend copious amounts of time on the I.L. They already had Austin Martin but he's unproven. They acquired Margot at the cost of a Platinum Glove minor league SS who I will certainly miss, but with Correa, Lewis and Lee, not to mention De Andrande and probably two more SS's drafted this June I can live with that. The glaring hole is the rotation. DeSclafani is a major question mark. Paddack as well. Both have potential upside. Both could leave the Twins scrambling with Varland and Festa replacements. I for one am O.K. with Varland and Festa as well as Matt Canterino if he remains a SP. However, it's fair to point out that the Twins still lack a LHP in their rotation and that the two best pitchers on the FA market are a 2-time Cy Young Award winner and a guy who pitched very well in the playoffs as a key member of the defending World Series Champion Texas Rangers. And both are Left-Handed. It's a little frustrating...BUT...I've never seen so much ambivalence toward a 2-time Cy Young winner. It's not just the Twins ! EVERY team in MLB is hesitating to sign Blake Snell at the price Scott Boras wants. Montgomery is a nice #3 SP. He's not an Ace! Montgomery is solid and he would slot at #2 ahead of Ryan and Ober. But would he be significantly BETTER than them in 2024? I'm not so sure he would. I can forgive a lot of the off season because the Twins are bursting with young talent who while they may have some growing pains, they project to be pretty darn good in the years ahead. I'm looking for a BIG deal at the deadline if the Twins are in position to make a run. That's been my frustration with the Pohlad's ever since they bought the team. All through the 2002-2010 era, with Mauer, Morneau and Santana their biggest deadline acquisition was...Shannon Stewart! I can be very forgiving if they make a deadline deal and land an Ace that propels the Twins to the World Series. At this point, I can't be overly critical because if Blake Snell isn't taking 5-years and $150 million guaranteed from the Yankees what would it take to get him to sign with the Twins?? I don't think he's worth more than $25 million per year! So far, I can be happy with what they've done and look forward to what Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff and Wallner can do and hope for better health and production from Buxton and Correa. That should be enough.

Just saw that the Rays added Amed Rosario to their roster. Tampa Bay, with Wander Franco's legal issues and Caminero being so young, would have been a prime spot to trade Farmer. That possibility is over now, but there will be other opportunities that will present themselves.

Lee "may" need more time at AAA. One should never put too much stock in spring training stats, but it's certainly possible that Lee turns in a very solid spring. This may speed up his timeline to the big league club sooner than the front office is looking at. If Lee impresses and either comes north with the Twins right out of camp or after 3-weeks in St. Paul what player on the big league roster does that most acutely affect? Kyle Farmer. Lee would do everything Farmer would do. Back up 2B, 3B and SS and at a fraction of the cost. Julien could still play some 1B, but with Santana on board and if Kirilloff is healthy and hitting, Julien will still play a decent number of games at 2B. Kirilloff could play more than we think in LF/RF. I could see Rocco rotating Lee throughout the infield with Julien, Santana and Kirilloff rotating between 1B and DH. The other guy that is affected if Lee breaks came with the Twins or joins early in the season is Larnach, because that could push Kirilloff to more games in the OF. So if Lee is on the big club, Farmer is more likely to be traded to a team that has a SS emergency, much like the Dodgers did with Gavin Lux last year. Larnach would be tethered to St. Paul and it would take a rash of injuries or very sub par play from Lee for Larnach to have much of a role with the Twins. But make no mistake about it. Lee is going to be a Twin THIS season. How soon that is will largely be up to Brooks Lee and to some degree how healthy certain players are or are NOT for the Twins.

Lee "may" need more time at AAA. One should never put too much stock in spring training stats, but it's certainly possible that Lee turns in a very solid spring. This may speed up his timeline to the big league club sooner than the front office is looking at. If Lee impresses and either comes north with the Twins right out of camp or after 3-weeks in St. Paul what player on the big league roster does that most acutely affect? Kyle Farmer. Lee would do everything Farmer would do. Back up 2B, 3B and SS and at a fraction of the cost. Julien could still play some 1B, but with Santana on board and if Kirilloff is healthy and hitting, Julien will still play a decent number of games at 2B. Kirilloff could play more than we think in LF/RF. I could see Rocco rotating Lee throughout the infield with Julien, Santana and Kirilloff rotating between 1B and DH. The other guy that is affected if Lee breaks came with the Twins or joins early in the season is Larnach, because that could push Kirilloff to more games in the OF. So if Lee is on the big club, Farmer is more likely to be traded to a team that has a SS emergency, much like the Dodgers did with Gavin Lux last year. Larnach would be tethered to St. Paul and it would take a rash of injuries or very sub par play from Lee for Larnach to have much of a role with the Twins. But make no mistake about it. Lee is going to be a Twin THIS season. How soon that is will largely be up to Brooks Lee and to some degree how healthy certain players are or are NOT for the Twins.

Eris, that was indeed a fascinating article on Bauer. He certainly puts a lot of thought and effort into improving his skill as a pitcher. To say that he is somewhat eccentric would be an understatement and he's certainly opinionated, but how many other professional athletes are the same way? He's also very driven, and that turn some people off. I've been clear from the beginning that I'd be willing to take a chance on him. The benefit exceeds the risk, certainly the financial risk. However, as others have pointed out, Falvey knows him pretty well. If he passes on him, he's got better reasons than I would ever be privy to. I don't think it means anything that Bauer hasn't signed with anybody yet. I think many teams are keeping tabs on him if they have a "situation" or "emergency" pop up, (like Baltimore has with Bradish right now). Spring training is just getting started. The way Bauer trains he would be in tip top shape prior to anyone signing him. He'd show up at camp "ready." He could still be a pretty effective #2 without having to consider trading an Emmanuel Rodriguez, Eddie Julien or Brooks Lee.

The better the team on the field is, the more revenue they will see from ticket sales and novelty sales. Sometimes you gotta spend a little to make a little more. This was an excellent layout for how next year could develop. There will certainly be other player moves that will affect what will ultimately be the outcome.

jishfish, that Brandon Crawford comp is a good one! That would probably be the ceiling, but I'd take THAT in a heartbeat.

And I think the reasons many have stated are why Snell and Montgomery are still unsigned. None of the 5 Boras clients are perfect fits for the Twins. Maybe if Bellinger was a switch-hitter? JD Martinez is a DH only. Scratch JD off the list. Bellinger helps in CF, 1B and even RF. But we already have LOTS of LH hitting OF's and Emm-Rod and Walker Jenkins are coming soon. Scratch Bellinger. Matt Chapman is a 3B. Scratch Chapman. And finally the SP's. Snell has won 2 Cy Young Awards and yet, he's been so inconsistent throughout his career that he's got the lowest value I can ever remember for a 2-time winner. He doesn't really evoke confidence of 5 years of excellence. And his contract demands are clearly not going over very well with every major league front office. Montgomery is much more consistent but he's almost like Brad Radke. He's a #3 SP and we need a #1 or at least a #2. I'm not comfortable paying #1 SP money to a guy who's clearly a solid #3. Honestly, would the Twins get nearly the same kind of production from a Clevinger or Bauer at a fraction of the cost? I'm leaning very heavily in the "I think so" direction. Scratch Snell and Montgomery. The money is there. But it doesn't HAVE to be spent. I'd much rather sign Adam Duval to have a RH bat with power to mix into my lineup (and send Larnach to St. Paul) and look for the right kind of pitcher at the trade deadline. The more I think about this, the more sense it makes to see how our season begins and progresses as well as see how Brooks Lee, Camargo and Emmanuel Rodriguez are doing and come the deadline or a little before that, determine what we're going to do with Kepler, Farmer and Vasquez and what SP we want to go after.

Thanks for the assistance in identifying Miller. I can only hope I finally remember it. With a glove THAT GOOD the hope is that his offense starts to come around, which he showed some progress in the 2nd half of the season last year. If the Twins in 2-3 years have Lewis, Julien, Walker Jenkins, Emm-Rod, Kirilloff. Wallner, Jeffers, Brooks Lee, Correa and Buxton here's hoping Noah Miller can have his mates pick him up on the offensive aspect of the game. A glove like that at SS will always play. Shortstops, like pitchers, will always be in high demand.

I agree that the Twins have some solid depth at the SS position in the minors. I always get confused WHO the Platinum Gold Glove winner we had at SS in the minors was last season...Miller? Or Schobel? It's not that I'm discounting De Andrade, but I also am not willing to concede that Brooks Lee is doomed to either 2B or 3B either. De Andrade, Miller, Schobel are all good prospects and are in some respects similar to Emmanuel Rodriguez. This year will determine if Emm-Rod is a BIG TIME prospect, or if he has some major flaws that need correcting. All three of these SS's could take a big step forward, or stall. To me, of these three SS's the one constant and least likely to slip or stall is the Platinum Gold Glove talent. That really caught my attention. Defense plays and is a consistent talent season over season. Whoever that guy is (Miller/Schobel) is who I think eventually takes over at SS when Correa needs to move to 3B. (unless of course, Brooks Lee fulfils all expectations. It's also why you could see Lewis in LF at sometime if Correa is destined for 3B in a couple of years. But a lot of THAT depends on how our OF prospects develop.

With the $47-$48 million dollar windfall the new TV deal gives the Twins this is certainly a possibility. Or at least it should be. I would argue that Snell is just as much in play as Montgomery because with the bullpen the FO has assembled the Twins could certainly afford to let Snell go out an dominate for 5 innings. In fact, Snell is a much more similar comp to Sonny Gray than Montgomery would be. Snell walks too many, but the strikeout stuff is undeniable. I would be happy with either Snell or Montgomery as the #2 behind Lopez. Maybe I make DeSclafani the Snell piggyback. The money is already there but if they needed to justify the expense for either pitcher they should focus on trading Farmer or Vasquez. Kepler should be kept for this season. Farmer will probably be replaced by Brooks Lee sooner rather than later. Lee is not playing a full season at St. Paul this year. He may not even play a month there. Vasquez is a good defensive catcher who should see his offense improve from his miserable season a year ago. But I'm not expecting much out of him offensively either way. He could be dealt to the Marlins for a minor league piece. Word is Miami would LOVE to have him. Jeffers becomes the #1 catcher and Camargo moves up. The TV deal is settled. The Twins are getting 85% of the $55 million they got last year. They have Farmer and Vasquez, two contracts that CAN be moved because there are young players pushing for their chance and they have talents that other teams would desire. I'd risk weakening the bench by an inch to add a MILE with a solid #2 SP at the top of our rotation.

LOTS of analysis. I think I'm getting a headache. I'm all in favor of letting the LH hitters work it out. You can't get comfortable hitting lefties if you only see one every two weeks or so. Certain LH pitchers I would sit someone like Julien or Kirilloff. A healthy Kershaw with his slow breaking stuff and pinpoint control is not a good matchup. Blake Snell on the other hand walks a lot of guys. That plays into someone like Julien and his strike zone discipline. Usually, switch hitters are better from the left side, although Mickey Mantle always said he was a much better RH "hitter" even though his power from the left side was superior. Is Brooks Lee decidedly better from one side or the other? While I'm happy to have the consistent and stable presence of Santana at 1B and in our lineup, I'm also looking forward to seeing Brooks Lee at 2B and either Julien or Kirilloff nailing down 1B for the long term. Either way, I would like to see Wallner, Julien and Kirilloff get more ABs against lefty pitchers this year. I DON'T want to see any of them get pinch hit for in the second inning.

I agree. Bellinger would be an interesting signing and certainly would be helpful due to his versatility. But Santana has 1B covered and Kirilloff just might stay healthy and deliver on all the potential this year. Centerfield is where Belly could come in the handiest, but maybe Buxton really IS feeling better than he has in years. Otherwise, Adam Duval as a RH hitter makes more sense (as he did in 2023 vs. Gallo). Plus, I agree that Kepler could come very close to equaling whatever offense Belly provides this season. Finally, if we've got that kind of money to throw around (and we DO since our TV contract will be adding $47-$48 million to our coffers) why not just sign Snell or Montgomery and have your #2 SP locked in for the next 3 years??

All this time I've been salivating for Canterino (and Varland) to be unleashed in a bullpen role. Now, I find, through an embarrassment of riches in the pen, he/they may actually get a longer look as a SP. WHAT A COUNTRY !!! I still think each would be filthy in the pen, but we have OPTIONS! Let Varland and Canterino strive for a starting role. Stewart and Topa are actually good insurance for each other. I agree with arby58 that it was almost unfair how Stewart dominated hitters before he went down. If both can replicate what they did in 2023 this season the Twins are flush. If not, they have tremendous depth to plug any holes. I am disappointed that Funderburk isn't part of the bullpen to begin the season. His stuff is impressive and I liked his "bulldog" attitude. No worries there though, Thielbar will spend a good part of the season on the sidelines in my estimation. He's getting long in the tooth and the injuries are predictable. Funderburk will be the prime replacement for Caleb and between the two of them I see a lot of effective innings. Staumont is the real deal. If he's healthy he's got GOOD stuff. He was a sneaky good signing. Okert and Jackson give me a better feeling than Winder and Balazovic. Maybe Alcala can finally stay healthy and show his "stuff." At this time last year, the Twins had done almost nothing to make the pen better and deeper, and then ended up releasing the two veteran arms they took a chance on as camp was breaking, only to see both pitchers have good years on another team. Let's hope we don't repeat those mistakes this time.

I'd be on board with offering Bauer a minor league contract at the MLB minimum with incentives if he achieves certain benchmarks. But understand this: If the Twins took the risk of offering him a minor league deal as I stated above, they'd be "in for a penny, in for a pound." His talent would play. He'd make the team out of spring training. Why have him pitching in St. Paul when he could be in Minneapolis? It's not like he'd be in Cedar Rapids! I maintain that he's still got a lot of gas in the tank. He's only 33 years old. He's at least 2 years away from the point where it gets dicey for pitchers. I also maintain that at the price that the Twins would have to pay him (money-wise), it's a NO-LOSE situation. If he steps off the path of righteousness at all, he's cut and never heard from again. Literally. At this point, we're probably at a place where if he isn't signed by somebody within a week it's not going to happen. But as soon as SOMEONE suffers a devastating injury to their rotation who thinks they can contend, that could all change. Since St. Paul is now the Twins AAA affiliate it won't be there. But 15 years ago, St. Paul is probably where a guy like Bauer would have ended up until some team desperate enough to need him would make the call.

I'm in the camp of JD and Hawkeye. Although I would point out to Hawkeye that as good as this year's bullpen COULD be, it's hard for ANY Twins bullpen to be better than the 2006 Twins bullpen. Go back and check the stats. Joe Nathan anchored it, but there were some tremendous seasons from a LOT of other guys in that bullpen. I believe that we will see incremental improvement from guys like Julien and Wallner, and the idea they could have 500-550 AB's as opposed to 250 is exciting. I think Jeffers may hit a little less, but I expect improvement from Vasquez so while we don't have a "STAR" like Rutschmann, Will Smith or JT Realmuto, our combination of Jeffers/Vasquez will be fine. Can guys like Lewis and Kirilloff stay healthy and have 500-550 AB's or more? If they do, I think the production will be excellent. Having a guy like Santana helps because his floor is pretty solid. We're not going to see Santana putting up "Gallo-esque" numbers at any time in 2024. That will even out the lineup. To me, Lewis remains a huge Wild Card. If he's healthy all season and putting up the numbers he's capable of, we may have our future Kirby Puckett, who comes through in clutch situations consistently. Ryan and Ober should continue to be solid, and if Ryan ever puts an entire season together like his first half last year he's a bona- fide #2. Who knows, the Twins may just come up with a trade to acquire a bona-fide #2 anyway making a potentially good rotation even better. I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will be solid contributors this season as well. But the two key guys for the Twins to be better than good in 2024 are Buxton and Correa. To me, I WANT to believe that Buxton has an All Star/Gold Glove season. If he wins a Gold Glove, that means he had the health to play enough to win it. And if he's healthy for the needed games played to qualify, the production, both offensively and defensively will be there. But I can't bring myself to believe just yet. What I CAN believe in, is a bounce back season from Carlos Correa. We had a fairly solid first season from him. Last year, for the most part was a major disappointment as he battled plantar fasciitis. If Correa plays in 150 games, hits .285 with 25 HR's (as he is fully capable of) then I'm pushing my chips to the middle of the table and calling the bet for a World Series. Correa is the KEY. Buxton will be icing on the cake, but if Correa has his best season as a Twin this year, I really like our chances with him and Lewis coming to bat in clutch situations.

Wallner should/will be the guy. It's quite an advantage to have a guy with a cannon like his in LF. You'd have to go back to Willie Stargell (with Clemente in RF) and Rocky Colovito (with Kaline in RF) to find a team with a guy in LF with a cannon like Wallner's. It would be nice if he couple cut down on K's a bit. But if the walks and power are still there and his defense improves a bit he's a solid starter. He may be destined to shift to RF once Max Kepler moves on but he can be solid in LF for 2024. I'm interested in seeing if Castro can replicate what he did last year. Defensively, I think he graded the best in LF. I'm also excited to see a good helping of Austin Martin. I don't care if Martin doesn't hit for power. I want a .280 BA with an OBP of .380 with stolen bases. Honestly, if the Twins (post Kepler) can get that kind of production out of Martin and Castro out of LF that would be fine with me. We may never get to that point with guys like Rodriguez, Jenkins, Winikour, Gonzolez and Rosario pushing, but it's not necessary to have power at EACH supposed power position (corner OF and corner IF) as long as the player there is giving you solid production.

It's an interesting list. I would have loved to see Emmanuel Rodriguez invited just to give him a taste. He and Walker Jenkins are two guys I'm excited about whenever TD publishes a Minor League Report this year.

Just read the post about who should be the Twins 8th guy in the bullpen. WOW, I didn't realize how many dudes we signed to be possible pieces in the pen. NOW I understand why Funderburk, who I thought would easily pitch 50 innings and quite possibly 70-75 is only projected for 29. We have all sorts of major league experienced guys, one of whom is the lefty Okert, just acquired by from the Marlins for Nick Gordon. Funderburk having options obviously means he will probably begin the season back in St. Paul. I loved what I saw out of him last year, but like Louis Varland, toiling in St. Paul to begin the season seems highly likely. Yeah, the Rick Wise comp really speaks to a career comparison more than a single season. If I remember, the Cards traded Carlton for Wise prior to the 1972 season. Carlton wins the Cy Young in one of the best season ANY pitcher has ever had. Wise was solid for the Cards in 1972 but he didn't stay in St. Louis long after that.

To me, if I'm looking at that #8 spot it should be Canterino. This is dependent on him lighting it up in Spring training because nobody questions his raw stuff. He may have to begin the season in St. Paul and pitch about one month down there. It wouldn't be a surprise to see that. The speculation now that another vet SP could be signed (Thor, Lorenzen) just adds another wrinkle to the discussion. I'd also like to toss Clevinger's name in there as well. If the Twins actually do bring in someone like this I would like to see some sort of piggyback with Paddack, who in his Pecota projections looks like he can deliver for the Twins. In fact, if a Clevinger was brought in, I'd love to see a Paddack/DeSclafani piggyback for sure. But I think Riverbrian hits the nail on the head when he points out that the Twins could have several TWO inning guys as opposed to pigeonholing them into a one inning or four inning role. Funderburk and Canterino would be excellent 2-inning guys. Maybe Staumont and Topa as well. We know Las Vegas has odds on Theilbar hitting the I.L. at 2.5 times. I'll take the over at 3. (sarc). Theilbar will be effective in his one inning stints when he pitches, but there will be a need to fill his absence from time to time throughout the season. The Twins really went out and got a BUNCH of guys as bullpen possibilities this off season. After pining away most of this winter how much I'd love to see Varland take over the 8th inning and occasional closer role, I'm happy with him remaining a SP with all the RP's the Twins signed. Plus, Canterino as a 2-inning guy can provide big time stuff out of the pen and still maintain a chance to be used as a spot SP if needed and his health/workload restrictions allow for it.

Just saw Matt Braun's post. Matt, don't you think Funderburk will throw closer to 70 innings? 29 seems awfully low. I get that Canterino is a Wild Card, but Funderburk is supposed to be our #1 LHP out of the pen all year, isn't he?

Jorgenswest makes good points. The "upside" of what Topa and Stewart could provide this bullpen is elite. The downside is that nobody saw them doing what they did last year. Are they one-hit-wonders? Or could they string a couple of similar seasons together? I think Pecota is being way too pessimistic for Funderburk. He's not going to be an All Star but I think he will be pretty good. Better than what Pecota is projecting him for now. The fact that Pecota has ANY projection for Matt Canterino is thrilling for me. We might actually be able to see this guy pitch in the major leagues. I'm kind of blown away by the Rick Wise comp for DeSclafani. THAT Rick Wise? The one the Cardinals traded Steve Carlton for?!?! Wise was a pretty solid pitcher in his day. If the Twins got Rick Wise production out of their #5 spot in the rotation that would be pretty solid. But I guess I'm most excited about Ryan and Ober. Those are pretty solid projections. I'd take them in heartbeat. And actually, if you look at how similar Paddack's ERA and FIP are, I'd take that in a heartbeat as well. This would be the best pitching staff in the division, even if Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber come back and throw well for Cleveland.

I could be on board with a Mike Clevinger signing, especially if it's just a one-year. He WOULD slot in as our #2 to begin the season. If it works out, maybe the Twins and Clevinger look for a longer extension. But with the $47 Million payday with the new TV contract, I think a clever move would be to sign Brandan Woodruff to a 2-3 year contract, let him rehab in 2024 and join Lopez at the top of our rotation in 2025. It would be an investment in the long term that could pay HUGE dividends.

I think this deal was tentatively agreed to and both teams were just waiting on Gordon's final number for cost certainty. The Marlins had a need for a player with Gordon's ability. The Twins needed one more lefty in the bullpen for when Theilbar suffers one of his 3 trips to the I.L. It works for everybody. I could see a Duval or Pham getting added as RH hitting outfield options. Possibly even Taylor. What I would like to see the Twins F.O. do after they have secured one more RH hitting OF, is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2 or 3 year contract and let him rehab for the 2024 season. Now that the Twins should be getting a $47 million or so dollar windfall for their TV contract, I think it would be a shrewd move to add a top of the rotation type of pitcher like Woodruff.