TopGunn#22

Twins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Luis Castillo SP 22.7 Total Value: 22.70 Mariners NAME POSITION SURPLUS Trevor Larnach OF 3.6 Griffin Jax RP 14.4 Jorge Polanco 2B 9.4 Total Value: 27.40

Great article. Great comments. Don Drysdale was "The Big D." Gary Matthews was "The Sarge." Orel Hershiser was "The Bulldog." Frank Howard was "Hondo." Those are a couple I've just come up with off the top of my head.

I like Provus a lot. Happy they picked him. It just made sense. I think Justin Morneau has come a long way and I like him too. Smalley has that LONG time connection to the game that always makes him interesting. Once we find out HOW and WHERE we can watch Twins baseball, it's going to be GREAT !!

That's probably what it would cost (or very close to what it would cost) and it's just too rich for my taste. And now that two legit targets for the Twins have signed elsewhere (Giolito & Montas) the pickings are starting to get slimmer for our favorite baseball team. Thanks for submitting !!

I agree with you all. Each of these guys could and probably will regress to some degree. I compare Castro to an emerging Cesar Tovar. Great utility guy with speed off the bench, Tovar grew into a full-time, regular player, and a very good one at that. Castro may not quite be Tovar, but he could be close. As was pointed out, he's entering his prime at age 27. Maybe he gets even better. Stewart? Bullpen guys, especially bullpen guys who are "oft injured" are impossible to predict. Kepler? I'd bet on some type of regression. Will it be HUGE with Max being 2021 & 2022 bad? I hope not. But he is still one of our primary trade chips this off-season. Jeffers is a really tough call. In some respects I'm more worried about him than Kepler. This is why it's probably necessary to keep Vasquez around in 2024. Vasquez should also be a better hitter than in 2023. The bar is pretty low for him to improve offensively.

It certainly IS an advantage to be playing the Dodgers in Minnesota so early in April. But it's also a bit of a shame as well. Target Field should be PACKED for those games, but if the weather is early April nasty, that could affect the box office negatively. That Dodgers lineup is going to be pretty top heavy with Mookie-Ohtani-Freeman-Will Smith in the first 4 spots. How the rest of the Dodger lineup does will depend on which version of Max Muncy they get in 2024 and how young players like Lux, Outman, Vargas and Busch progress. The first 4 could be epic in terms of runs scored and runs driven in. The last 4 could be pretty weak.

I would say "NO." The Twins got about all they needed from "Donny Barrels" in 2023 but his versatility is an illusion. He's well below average defensively anywhere they would play him. As a DH, he's far too "punch-less" to be a positive. With Miranda, Martin and Lee the Twins have everywhere covered that Solano could be. And at $3-$3.25 million that's far too rich for a team looking to cut payroll rather than add. Check out what each of our bullpen candidates would cost and compare it to the cost of Solano. Theilbar is our most expensive bullpen arm. He will probably have at minimum two stints on the injured list this season. So it's probably time to include Theilbar in a deal with a team like Seattle or Miami for a starting pitcher. Just like with Solano, the Twins have younger options and the time has come to promote them. Let the youth movement continue.

Those Oriole teams were epic. 1969: 109 wins. 1970: 108 wins. 1971: 101 wins (with FOUR 20-game winners). One other thing I would like to mention as we review and reminisce about past great Twins teams is how blessed we've been through the years with the broadcasters. From the inception of the Twins in 1961 and the talent laden and entertaining team of Herb Carneal, Ray Scott, Merele Harmon and Halsey Hall, to Ted Robinson, John Gordon, Dick Bremer and Cory Provus we've had some really solid play-by-play people. There are some not so good, like Dan Gladden but very few teams can boast a lineup like the Twins have had. We've been lucky for Vikings football, with guys Ray Scott and Joe McConnell (while now being burdened with PA). Wolves basketball has had Kevin Harlan and Kevin McHale and a whole host of other solid voices including the current team and North Stars/Wild Hockey has always been top shelf. The New Year is a time to count blessings. Here's to the voices that have called the games of our favorite Minnesota teams through the years !!

East Coast twin is correct. Tiant fractured his shoulder blade and wasn't available to pitch in the post season. He was turning 30 for the 1971 season and the Twins did not have the patience to wait for him to get healthy. He struggled with the Red Sox in 1971, going 1-7 but the Red Sox (unlike the Twins) knew they had something if they could get him healthy. Tiant was back to his brilliant self in 1972 winning 15 games, losing just 6, with an ERA of 1.91. 1970 was the LAST great season for Killebrew. It was the 2nd to last great season for Oliva (he won the batting title in 1971) and it wasn't long to the end of Perry, Boswell, Perranoski, and Tovar. Prior to the 1972 season, the Twins traded Perry and Perronoski to the Tigers, Tommy Hall was shipped to the Reds for Wayne Granger, and the team would start looking very different in 1973 & 1974. I've always kind of looked at the 1969-1970 Twins as a great combination of back to back seasons. And I loved their pinstriped uniforms with the Blue Twins trimmed in Red and Blue numbers on the back. Best uni's they've ever had. 1977 was the last gasp of fun until about 1984.

This was a fun read. I think we all HOPE he can be a Kyle Tucker/Bryce Harper type of player. Hitting in the heart of the order for the Twins with Royce Lewis for a decade of playoff appearances and a couple of World Series wins. It's too early to count on anything, but I'm looking forward to reading about his progress on Twins Daily all year long. I hope he can make it to AA this season. start 2025 at AA and quickly move to St. Paul before finally getting a shot either before of after the All Star Game in 2025. My dream scenario is that he's up sometime in 2025 and does very well. Will he still be eligible for ROY in 2026 or does he just outright WIN IT in 2025. That's MY dream. :)

I would add not to sleep on the recent acquisition of Nico Goodrum. He's an excellent glove in the infield. He could very well make Farmer expendable and allow Castro to be used a a CF/LF platoon player. Goodrum, if he hits just a little bit becomes the preferred backup/defensive replacement at SS, 2B and 3B and is insurance for the Twins not to rush Brooks Lee. It's still possible that Lee makes the team out of spring training if he sizzles. But I see Lee more as a June/All Star break callup if Goodrum is working out.

Having Max WILLING to play a little CF would be helpful but isn't an automatic fix either. I for one think Castro could be a Cesar Tovar type, who, while playing multiple positions to begin with, eventually settled into a CF/LF regular position. I'm not saying Castro will be a .300 hitter like Tovar. Just that his early versatility shouldn't preclude him from becoming a regular LF or CF. Buxton's health (or lack of) will determine how many games/innings of CF need to be covered. As to Wallner being destined to be a RF because of his arm. This is true, to a point. The Pirates played Willie Stargell in LF because they had Clemente in RF. Stargell had a cannon. The Tigers played Rocky Colovito in LF because they had Al Kaline in RF. Colovito had a cannon. Yaz played LF and he had a better arm than Tony Conigliaro who played RF from the time he came up for the Red Sox. Guys with cannons for arms sometimes end up in LF. Once Kepler is gone, Wallner probably moves over to RF. But it wouldn't shock me if he stayed in LF either. Castro might be the best LF the Twins have right now. I'd be fine with him in LF and Wallner in RF if Keplar was traded. for pitching. I don't know enough about Emmanuel Rodriguez's arm or Walker Jenkins, but they seem destined for an outfield position sometime in the not too distant future either.

I second that emotion Doc !! Let's all pray for a Blessed and Happy New Year ! Karbo, I'm with you on that World Peace and our country becoming less divided and more unified. It doesn't look so good for that right now, but it's an ideal to strive for.

The collection of possible 2B & 3B players that Seattle has are tremendously underwhelming. That's why Polanco to Seattle is such a persistent rumor. Ryan Bliss is not going to be the A.L. Rookie of the Year. He probably won't even make the team out of spring training despite the lack of decent players at 2B & 3B to compete with. France is a decent bat, but as others have pointed out, I have a hard time believing they would trade a hitter when they need offense so badly. If I'm the Twins, the Mariner I would be most focused on would be Luis Castillo. And I would rather see what a presumably healthy Miranda can do as opposed to acquiring France. This is always a dangerous time of year for assumptions. Because every year we hear how "healthy" everyone is prior to reporting to Fort Myers. Polanco has never felt better, Buxton is pain free, Kirilloff looks great! Miranda has a new body! Canterino is finally 100%. Correa was seen dancing with his wife!! And on and on. Then when spring training begins, all those aches and pains have a tendency to creep back into the picture. I'm just as anxious as everyone else to see what the Twins will do. Because they're going to make some moves for sure. But nothing of note is going to get done until they fill their #2 spot in the rotation. At seasons end, I was pretty sure Polanco and Kepler were BOTH getting traded. I still think Polanco will but I'm not so sure about Kepler. We could very well keep them both at the salaries each will be at in 2024. Polanco still has gas in the tank, and I thinks a number of teams of interested in him. Seattle just might be at the top of the list.

Don't forget the Twins just signed Nico Goodrum and he's a very good glove, especially at SS. Goodrum could make Farmer expendable and for the right return I think the Twins will trade him. Another FA out there who is a RH hitter that has defensive versatility is Nick Senzel, formerly of the Reds.

I have always LOVED Canterino's stuff. He throws hard, but that curveball is knee-buckling. I had settled on him being that 8th inning guy that allows Varland to remain a SP or at least be piggybacked with Paddack. I hadn't realized that doctors had told him 125 innings was possible for 2024. I really thought the bullpen was his only option. Interesting. I STILL see him as an 8th inning guy and when paired with Duran would be a lock down back end of the pen. I just wonder WHEN the Twins would call him up? Even if he shines in spring training, I've got to believe they want to see him dominate in St. Paul for 2--months. Maybe June 1st-10th? I had no idea Paddack hit 99 mph last year !! I knew he had a good fastball from when he came up with the Padres but 99?!? That's exciting. Paddack and Canterino are two pitchers who could be true difference makers for the Twins in 2024.

Great points Doc. To me, the key to Meneses is where can he play defensively for you? He can be adequate at 1B. He DH'd 130 games last year because the Nats had Dominic Smith playing 1B and Smith is excellent defensively. He played a little OF in 2022, but almost none in 2023. We need a RH bat in the OF. In any scenario, Meneses would be a defensive liability in the OF. I like that he's a super-charged version of Solano. Solid contact hitter, more power. Meneses would be very limited defensively. It was mentioned in another post that an interesting possibility for the Twins could be SF Giants OF Austin Slater. He's 31, very good defensively in all 3 OF slots and he clobbers LH pitching. The Giants need a SS in the worst way. Crawford has retired and their young SS isn't quite ready. They need at least a one season bridge. Slater is being pushed out of their plans after they signed Jung-hoo Lee and still have Luis Matos, Mike Yaz and Mitch Hanniger. A straight up one-for-one of Farmer for Slater would solve both teams problems and save the Twins about $3 million in payroll. I think the signing of Nico Goodrum means the Twins WILL trade farmer.

I would! He's younger and doesn't strike out as much as Adam Duval and would fit in to our OF as that RH platoon against lefties and backup/insurance for Buxton in CF. A trade with the Giants sending them Farmer is a good one. it saves us $3 million dollars and adds a solid RH hitter to our OF mix. Great Suggestion !!

I have mentioned Duval several times because I think he fills the bill of someone who can play a good CF but who also has power. Drawbacks are, and always have been, high strikeout rate and injury prone. Riverbrian is spot on with that assessment. I have been considering Meneses as well. He's a similar hitter to Solano except he's got pop (13 HRs and 36 Doubles in 600 ABs). He doesn't walk a lot, but neither did Solano. He's much younger than Solano and has more power and would be a good addition as a bat that consistently makes contact. The drawback is that he was a DH for 131 games last year. His time at 1B and in RF really diminished from 2022 to 2023. Some of that was due to injury in 2022. We can't really afford to sign someone to be primarily a DH with Buxton. I'm not sure what the assessment is of Meneses at 1B and LF/RF.

This is why, even though the Twins haven't shown a willingness to do this, I think having Paddack start the game and Varland piggyback with him is the best way forward. Both Paddack and Varland fill innings for the Twins, hopefully effectively, and putting less stress on the bullpen when they get the Twins through the 7th or 8th inning. They both stay "stretched out" and depending on pitches thrown, either could fill up to 5 innings in an appearance. This also leaves the "Wild Card" of Matt Canterino available to fill the 8th inning role eventually. Canterino would have to prove his health and effectiveness FIRST. But let's say he does BOTH. After the All Star break or by August 1st, Canterino could be filling that 8th inning set up role. Guys who were VERY effective last year--Funderburk, Stewart, can continue to grow into a bigger role if performance dictates they should. Jax, not being overused, would see his effectiveness improve. Theilbar is effective when healthy, he's just on the I.L. more and more frequently as he's aging. But none of this makes sense or is possible if the Twins fail to add someone who truly should slot in the #2 SP spot. If that guy is not BETTER than Ryan or Ober, there is an acute need for Paddack and Varland to be used separately as "stand alone" SP's and that presents a domino effect stress on the bullpen if one of both aren't pitches well, or reasonably deep into games.

When you're the 44th or 45th guy to comment on a topic, most everybody else has made any points you would have earlier. That said, this is a good conversation piece. I don't think moving Varland to the bullpen is "malpractice" but I understand Greggory using it to make his point. My point or points is that this is a very fluid situation that has a number of "dominoes" that need to fall before we finally land on what the strategy will be. And even then it may be a bit muddled. Starting Pitchers always have more "value" because they throw more innings. However, relief pitchers that throw high leverage innings can still be VERY valuable. Top flight closers and elite set up guys like Devin Williams was before Hader was traded fall into this category. Varland has the potential to be one of these elite set up guys. He also has the potential to be a solid #3 or #4 SP. I'm one of those guys who would really like to see Varland in that 8th inning role. He's more durable than Stewart, who was lights out last year. He's more talented than Jax who suffers when he's overworked. But Varland is only an 8th inning guy if the Twins come up with one or two SP options to replace what the rotation lost. We're all in agreement that Paddack replaces Maeda. The question we're all waiting to see answered is WHO is going to replace Gray? A trade for a Jesus Luzardo or Luis Castillo caliber SP just doesn't seem likely. While I would like to love to see it happen, Twins fans may have to be willing to accept a Julien or Lee caliber player being sent out to accomplish that. That's certainly true for Luzardo. Castillo could be had for less, but then the Twins have to figure out how to absorb his salary for 2024 while only sending a Polanco sized contract out (necessitating a cost efficient minor league player like Emmanuel Rodriguez or even a Wallner to be included). The other option for the rotation is a FA signing. Giolito seems to be getting too expensive, so in order to get a guy with a #1 or #2 pedigree at a somewhat affordable price, they would have to settle for a Frankie Montas or Trevor Bauer. In my opinion, they need to add a #2 (maybe #1) type of SP. My targets would be Castillo or Montas/Bauer. If they did that the rotation would look like this: Lopez, (Castillo/Bauer/Montas), Ryan, and Ober. That's 4 SP's. If they only add ONE good SP I'd like to see the Paddack/Varland piggyback. If Paddack and Varland are calibrated to pitch 3-4 innings each outing they can, or should be able to get to the 7th/8th inning each start and reduce the stress on their bullpen. Having Paddack/Varland as the #5 could be very effective. To me, THAT is the most productive strategy and outcome for the Twins in 2024. Varland is still stretched out enough to throw a good amount of innings. Paddack is being protected and hopefully thriving under a carefully managed number of innings/pitches thrown. If the Twins need to dip into the St. Paul rotation for a spot start or three, Festa, SWR, etc...can provide. A "Wild Card" in all this is the guy who may have the BEST or 2nd BEST stuff in the system. Matt Canterino. If Canterino can get thru April and maybe half of May healthy and pitching effectively, HE becomes the 8th inning guy Varland COULD be. This way, the Twins protect the viability of Varland as a SP. They also don't waste innings for him down in St. Paul. Varland has been up with the Twins for parts of the last 2 seasons. It's time to make him a Major League pitcher. The Twins also do not waste potential innings for Canterino in St. Paul. If he's firing on all cylinders in St. Paul, get him up in mid-May and get him Major League innings. For any of this to happen, we have to see what the Twins do for that #2 SP spot. That domino has to fall before any others do. Once that happens, we may finally see a clear path forward for how the Twins plan to stock their rotation AND bullpen for 2024.

There has ALWAYS been disparity in sports. Especially in "Baseball." Do any of you think the New York Yankees have won all those World Series Championships because they DIDN'T use their economic might? Of course not! They BOUGHT Babe Ruth from the Red Sox. They basically STOLE Roger Maris from the Kansas City Athletics, who were really nothing more than a major league farm team for the Yanks. I don't like the present system either, but it's NOT going to change. At least not radically. The Players Union has drawn their line in the sand and the owners are never going to cross it, ever again. Strikes are bad for business. Most of us on here are probably 50+ years old. We are the sad saps who will keep coming back to baseball no matter how many times they mess with us. We grew up with the game. We are hooked and that's never going to change. Kneeling for the National Anthem didn't drive us away. Unfairly taking the All Star Game from Atlanta didn't drive us away. Different rules for the American and National Leagues for decades didn't drive us away. Various strikes and work stoppages didn't drive us away. Our generation will accept the game as it is no matter what, because we love baseball. Love can be irrational, but love is capable of overlooking a lot of stuff. But here's the mystery of "Baseball." Take out the Covid season and the Dodgers haven't won a World Series since 1988. All that Star Power hasn't led to even ONE World Series Championship outside of the Covid season. The Yankees haven't won since 2009. Last year we had the D-Backs and Rangers. Despite certain team's ability to buy any player they want, "Baseball" just doesn't work that way. Vegas thinks the Dodgers will it all in 2024. And they probably will. But they didn't in 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023. And those were some LOADED Dodger teams. The games will be played, and at the end of 2024, about the same time we find out who the President of the United States will be, we'll have our World Series Champion. Anybody wonder what the Vegas odds are for the Presidency??? I don't. I'm not betting on that.

If Luis Castillo is really a potential trade piece I think the Twins should be very interested. I would propose the following trade. Based on BBTV it's a slight overpay for the Twins. I would think you'd have to overpay somewhat to "win" a trade for Castillo. The Mariners get a much needed 2B, a power hitting OF and a young SP to restock the farm with the loss of Castillo at the top of their rotation. If Seattle truly wants to keep their young, controllable SP (and I can believe they do) this deal checks a LOT of their off season needs boxes. Castillo simply moves right in to the top of the Twins rotation pushing Lopez to #2. A rotation of Castillo, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland would be better than 2023. Remember, Castillo and Gray both pitched for the Reds. Castillo was CLEARLY the Ace. Sonny won us 8 games last last year. Castillo would be a significant upgrade. The Twins take a bit of a hit salary wise as Polanco & Larnach cover some, but not all of the cost of Castillo in 2024. But Castillo's contract is a bargain compared to what the current SP salary landscape is looking like. I for one would LOVE to enter a playoff series with Castillo and Lopez pitching games #1 & #2. Twins 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Luis Castillo 31 Majors SP Low 5 138.7 121.6 17.1 13.7 17.1 20.6 Total Value: 17.1 Mariners 00 NAME AGE LEVEL P1 P2 AVAILABILITY YEARS AFV SALARY SURPLUS LOW MEDIAN HIGH Trevor Larnach 27 Majors OF Low 4 9.2 5.6 3.6 2.9 3.6 4.3 Jorge Polanco 30 Majors 2B Low 2 31.9 22.5 9.4 7.6 9.4 11.3 Connor Prielipp 22 Minors SP 0 0 0 5.7 4.6 5.7 6.8 Total Value: 18.7

Whitey & Hosken Powell are possibly a little harsh in their assessment but honesty is the best policy. The Twins should "COUNT" on absolutely nothing from Buxton in 2024. Whatever they get should be considered a BONUS. Now, this could be a pretty significant bonus depending on what he's actually able to do, but to plan on him as a key contributor is managerial malpractice. Once the Twins have made their move to fill their rotation holes the CF position must be addressed. I've advocated a signing of Adam Duval as he provides solid defense in CF (and LF & RF as well) and a RH power bat. I think it's safe to count on Correa being "better" in 2024 as compared to 2023. His whole track record suggests that. Buxton's track record is that he's off the field more than he's on the field. But I agree that he MUST be able to play the field. His Platinum Glove level defense is a HUGE part of his value and the WAR he accrues. I'm not in favor of moving him to a corner OF position. He's a CF. That's where he's most comfortable. As long as he has his speed, he should be in CF. I wouldn't want to etch in stone how many games he needs to play in CF but I feel as if 80-81 (half of the season) is a reasonable expectation and a necessary expectation. 80 in CF and another 20-40 at DH. Buxton can't do much worse than last season. He could very well do "as poorly" as last year, but I don't think it's unrealistic to expect some kind of improvement. But it is vital to come up with an Adam Duval, Nick Senzel, maybe a Garrett Mitchell type of "Plan B" who may have to play A LOT of CF. I think Castro can more than adequately cover innings in CF and Martin could also turn out to be a solid option. But some type of veteran needs to be added just to hedge their bet. The Twins will need better seasons in 2024 from both Correa and Buxton. Correa is, to me a sure thing. Buxton, very much uncertain. Hope for the best. But have a plan this coming season just in case.

Great Post and great stories. I grew up in the 60's (born in 1958) but the 60's weren't much different than the 50's. We had a neighborhood full of kids, but with Little League teams you got to know a bunch of other kids, so once my brothers and I had finished our chores we were out the door "recruiting" kids for that mornings games. We had several Little League fields and a school nearby, so we never lacked for a place to play. Since there was a wide discrepancy in ages in our neighborhood, anywhere from 6 yrs old to 14 or 15, we often played "Tenny Ball." We used a tennis ball instead of a baseball. That way, a kid could play catcher and didn't mind too much if he got nailed in the face on a foul tip. Older kids pitched, and they were allowed to "bring it." I credit that with my never having an issue dealing with pitchers who threw hard. But as kids, you had to be flexible and creative. The number of kids playing was constantly in flux, so some sessions were "Pitchers Hand Out." Others we used a first baseman. We only used baseballs when we had neighborhood "practice sessions" usually administrated by the older kids. It's always a thrill for "little kids" to be included in the games of the "bigger kids." I loved it when I was little and I took that responsibility seriously when I became one of the older kids. Collecting baseball cards was a big deal in my youth. I never worried about having an entire set. I was focused on STARS. I started out as a Twins fan, so when it was time to select a favorite Twins player I had to give my older brother first choice. He picked Killebrew. I breathed a sigh of relief, I wanted Tony Oliva all along. My younger brother settled for Zoilo. Whether it was radio or TV, I always hung on every Tony O at bat. On rainy days, we would deal out baseball cards and debate who was better...Oliva or Clemente? Mays or Aaron? Koufax or Gibson or Marichal? Our Dad hated seeing the mess in our room, so he would order us to pick 5 baseball cards to keep and the rest went into the garbage. I would routinely risk saving the better cards by putting them in a certain place in the garbage in a paper bag. I was caught several times and paid the price for disobedience but it was worth it. Years later, my Dad asked me if I still had any of those Baseball Cards. He'd heard they might be worth some money. I answered, "yeah Dad, I do. But not as many as I could have had." My brothers and I still talk about.