TopGunn#22

I'd be on board with offering Bauer a minor league contract at the MLB minimum with incentives if he achieves certain benchmarks. But understand this: If the Twins took the risk of offering him a minor league deal as I stated above, they'd be "in for a penny, in for a pound." His talent would play. He'd make the team out of spring training. Why have him pitching in St. Paul when he could be in Minneapolis? It's not like he'd be in Cedar Rapids! I maintain that he's still got a lot of gas in the tank. He's only 33 years old. He's at least 2 years away from the point where it gets dicey for pitchers. I also maintain that at the price that the Twins would have to pay him (money-wise), it's a NO-LOSE situation. If he steps off the path of righteousness at all, he's cut and never heard from again. Literally. At this point, we're probably at a place where if he isn't signed by somebody within a week it's not going to happen. But as soon as SOMEONE suffers a devastating injury to their rotation who thinks they can contend, that could all change. Since St. Paul is now the Twins AAA affiliate it won't be there. But 15 years ago, St. Paul is probably where a guy like Bauer would have ended up until some team desperate enough to need him would make the call.

I'm in the camp of JD and Hawkeye. Although I would point out to Hawkeye that as good as this year's bullpen COULD be, it's hard for ANY Twins bullpen to be better than the 2006 Twins bullpen. Go back and check the stats. Joe Nathan anchored it, but there were some tremendous seasons from a LOT of other guys in that bullpen. I believe that we will see incremental improvement from guys like Julien and Wallner, and the idea they could have 500-550 AB's as opposed to 250 is exciting. I think Jeffers may hit a little less, but I expect improvement from Vasquez so while we don't have a "STAR" like Rutschmann, Will Smith or JT Realmuto, our combination of Jeffers/Vasquez will be fine. Can guys like Lewis and Kirilloff stay healthy and have 500-550 AB's or more? If they do, I think the production will be excellent. Having a guy like Santana helps because his floor is pretty solid. We're not going to see Santana putting up "Gallo-esque" numbers at any time in 2024. That will even out the lineup. To me, Lewis remains a huge Wild Card. If he's healthy all season and putting up the numbers he's capable of, we may have our future Kirby Puckett, who comes through in clutch situations consistently. Ryan and Ober should continue to be solid, and if Ryan ever puts an entire season together like his first half last year he's a bona- fide #2. Who knows, the Twins may just come up with a trade to acquire a bona-fide #2 anyway making a potentially good rotation even better. I'm cautiously optimistic that Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will be solid contributors this season as well. But the two key guys for the Twins to be better than good in 2024 are Buxton and Correa. To me, I WANT to believe that Buxton has an All Star/Gold Glove season. If he wins a Gold Glove, that means he had the health to play enough to win it. And if he's healthy for the needed games played to qualify, the production, both offensively and defensively will be there. But I can't bring myself to believe just yet. What I CAN believe in, is a bounce back season from Carlos Correa. We had a fairly solid first season from him. Last year, for the most part was a major disappointment as he battled plantar fasciitis. If Correa plays in 150 games, hits .285 with 25 HR's (as he is fully capable of) then I'm pushing my chips to the middle of the table and calling the bet for a World Series. Correa is the KEY. Buxton will be icing on the cake, but if Correa has his best season as a Twin this year, I really like our chances with him and Lewis coming to bat in clutch situations.

Wallner should/will be the guy. It's quite an advantage to have a guy with a cannon like his in LF. You'd have to go back to Willie Stargell (with Clemente in RF) and Rocky Colovito (with Kaline in RF) to find a team with a guy in LF with a cannon like Wallner's. It would be nice if he couple cut down on K's a bit. But if the walks and power are still there and his defense improves a bit he's a solid starter. He may be destined to shift to RF once Max Kepler moves on but he can be solid in LF for 2024. I'm interested in seeing if Castro can replicate what he did last year. Defensively, I think he graded the best in LF. I'm also excited to see a good helping of Austin Martin. I don't care if Martin doesn't hit for power. I want a .280 BA with an OBP of .380 with stolen bases. Honestly, if the Twins (post Kepler) can get that kind of production out of Martin and Castro out of LF that would be fine with me. We may never get to that point with guys like Rodriguez, Jenkins, Winikour, Gonzolez and Rosario pushing, but it's not necessary to have power at EACH supposed power position (corner OF and corner IF) as long as the player there is giving you solid production.

It's an interesting list. I would have loved to see Emmanuel Rodriguez invited just to give him a taste. He and Walker Jenkins are two guys I'm excited about whenever TD publishes a Minor League Report this year.

Just read the post about who should be the Twins 8th guy in the bullpen. WOW, I didn't realize how many dudes we signed to be possible pieces in the pen. NOW I understand why Funderburk, who I thought would easily pitch 50 innings and quite possibly 70-75 is only projected for 29. We have all sorts of major league experienced guys, one of whom is the lefty Okert, just acquired by from the Marlins for Nick Gordon. Funderburk having options obviously means he will probably begin the season back in St. Paul. I loved what I saw out of him last year, but like Louis Varland, toiling in St. Paul to begin the season seems highly likely. Yeah, the Rick Wise comp really speaks to a career comparison more than a single season. If I remember, the Cards traded Carlton for Wise prior to the 1972 season. Carlton wins the Cy Young in one of the best season ANY pitcher has ever had. Wise was solid for the Cards in 1972 but he didn't stay in St. Louis long after that.

To me, if I'm looking at that #8 spot it should be Canterino. This is dependent on him lighting it up in Spring training because nobody questions his raw stuff. He may have to begin the season in St. Paul and pitch about one month down there. It wouldn't be a surprise to see that. The speculation now that another vet SP could be signed (Thor, Lorenzen) just adds another wrinkle to the discussion. I'd also like to toss Clevinger's name in there as well. If the Twins actually do bring in someone like this I would like to see some sort of piggyback with Paddack, who in his Pecota projections looks like he can deliver for the Twins. In fact, if a Clevinger was brought in, I'd love to see a Paddack/DeSclafani piggyback for sure. But I think Riverbrian hits the nail on the head when he points out that the Twins could have several TWO inning guys as opposed to pigeonholing them into a one inning or four inning role. Funderburk and Canterino would be excellent 2-inning guys. Maybe Staumont and Topa as well. We know Las Vegas has odds on Theilbar hitting the I.L. at 2.5 times. I'll take the over at 3. (sarc). Theilbar will be effective in his one inning stints when he pitches, but there will be a need to fill his absence from time to time throughout the season. The Twins really went out and got a BUNCH of guys as bullpen possibilities this off season. After pining away most of this winter how much I'd love to see Varland take over the 8th inning and occasional closer role, I'm happy with him remaining a SP with all the RP's the Twins signed. Plus, Canterino as a 2-inning guy can provide big time stuff out of the pen and still maintain a chance to be used as a spot SP if needed and his health/workload restrictions allow for it.

Just saw Matt Braun's post. Matt, don't you think Funderburk will throw closer to 70 innings? 29 seems awfully low. I get that Canterino is a Wild Card, but Funderburk is supposed to be our #1 LHP out of the pen all year, isn't he?

Jorgenswest makes good points. The "upside" of what Topa and Stewart could provide this bullpen is elite. The downside is that nobody saw them doing what they did last year. Are they one-hit-wonders? Or could they string a couple of similar seasons together? I think Pecota is being way too pessimistic for Funderburk. He's not going to be an All Star but I think he will be pretty good. Better than what Pecota is projecting him for now. The fact that Pecota has ANY projection for Matt Canterino is thrilling for me. We might actually be able to see this guy pitch in the major leagues. I'm kind of blown away by the Rick Wise comp for DeSclafani. THAT Rick Wise? The one the Cardinals traded Steve Carlton for?!?! Wise was a pretty solid pitcher in his day. If the Twins got Rick Wise production out of their #5 spot in the rotation that would be pretty solid. But I guess I'm most excited about Ryan and Ober. Those are pretty solid projections. I'd take them in heartbeat. And actually, if you look at how similar Paddack's ERA and FIP are, I'd take that in a heartbeat as well. This would be the best pitching staff in the division, even if Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber come back and throw well for Cleveland.

I could be on board with a Mike Clevinger signing, especially if it's just a one-year. He WOULD slot in as our #2 to begin the season. If it works out, maybe the Twins and Clevinger look for a longer extension. But with the $47 Million payday with the new TV contract, I think a clever move would be to sign Brandan Woodruff to a 2-3 year contract, let him rehab in 2024 and join Lopez at the top of our rotation in 2025. It would be an investment in the long term that could pay HUGE dividends.

I think this deal was tentatively agreed to and both teams were just waiting on Gordon's final number for cost certainty. The Marlins had a need for a player with Gordon's ability. The Twins needed one more lefty in the bullpen for when Theilbar suffers one of his 3 trips to the I.L. It works for everybody. I could see a Duval or Pham getting added as RH hitting outfield options. Possibly even Taylor. What I would like to see the Twins F.O. do after they have secured one more RH hitting OF, is sign Brandon Woodruff to a 2 or 3 year contract and let him rehab for the 2024 season. Now that the Twins should be getting a $47 million or so dollar windfall for their TV contract, I think it would be a shrewd move to add a top of the rotation type of pitcher like Woodruff.

A fitting conclusion to a wonderful series of interesting debates. I can agree with 1991 because it had the right mix of pitching and hitting as well as defense. To me, 1965 is probably the best "on paper" and could have clearly been the best "on paper" had Killebrew not missed significant time in the regular season. 1965 had it all. An MVP, a batting champion (who finished runner-up for the MVP) great pitching both starting and out of the bullpen. I think I would have ranked 2006 higher due to the MVP season for Morneau, Mauer as a batting champion catcher, and Santana as a CY Young winner. The other aspect of the 2006 team that made them SO good was their bullpen. This bullpen had tremendous depth and with Joe Nathan to close out games it was the absolute strength of the team. 1960 and 1970 should just be back to back. They are mirror images of each other. One year had more Carew (1969), the other year had a little better and deeper pitching (1970). And 2019 was surreal with 307 team HR's. Still a major league record. I'd rank them as follows: 1. 1965 2. 2006 3. 2019 4. 1969 5. 1970 6. 1991 7. 1987 8. 2004 9. 2023 10. 2010 I substitute 2004 for 2002. For me, this is an exercise in how you evaluate the statistics of a team. Winning the World Series (or a championship is nice, but not the sole consideration). The Vikings have never won a Super Bowl, but lets say they had in 1973 or 1974. Those teams were just not as good as non-Super Bowl teams like 1975, 1998 and 2009. This debate is similar to what those debates would be.

Good trade !! More depth in the bullpen and a lefty with an excellent K rate to boot. Good luck Nick Gordon.

I had mentioned on a different post (a Doc Gast article) that early in the off season, while playing around with the BBTV site, I had included E-Rod in a number of trades to get that #2 SP. His value "fit" into the deal I was trying to make. But as I've read more about it him and chewed on that analysis I can see why the Twins probably never considered any trade with him in it. His upside is just to good and this jump to AA is really important to track his development. If he mashes at AA it would be a safe assumption to think he could do that at St. Paul, and then he's not long to being on a major league roster. It's been pointed out that at this time, the Twins have good outfield prospects in the minor leagues but with this probably being the final year of Max Kepler in RF they are quite thin at the major league level, especially when you toss in the "Buxton Wildcard." This year of development for E-Rod (I like E-Rod or Em-Rod FAR better than "Emma") as well as Jenkins, Gonzalez, Winekour and Rosario (as well as Austin Martin) will be key to filling some of those OF holes come 2025. We could see E-Rod up late this season. If not, possibly fairly early in 2025. Martin will be in the mix. Kepler will have moved on with Wallner taking over RF. E-Rod in LF/CF and Martin in CF/LF is possible. Kirilloff and/or Larnach are possible corner OF going forward. This is a key year for development and there's always Walker Jenkins lurking. I for one, believe he could move quickly through the Twins system.

That is essentially the question tony&rodney. The options, at this point have really dwindled. But there still are options. Sign Snell or Montgomery. Despite how well each of these pitchers did last year, Snell winning his 2nd Cy Young and Montgomery having a solid year and then a great postseason, each has underlying metrics that are scaring major league front offices away from BIG dollars and LONG commitments. But as Twins fans, we know this is not happening. Sign a cheaper vet who has some potential upside. This is Bauer. Past success, at 33 years old he's young enough to still have some gas in the tank. But a past and reputation that leaves a LOT to be desired. If Bauer were 35 or 36 I wouldn't even consider it. At 33 on a one year, league minimum deal with incentives, I'm interested. And as Doc Gast said, if he's getting shelled and/or a clubhouse problem, you cut him and move on. But he has been a Cy Young Award winner and he could still be pretty good at 33 years old. Vikings fans didn't turn on Dalvin Cook after his issues. It might take some time for many Twins fans to warm up to Bauer but if the performance is that of a solid #2 behind Lopez, giving Ryan, Ober and Paddack a little more runway it would be a good move. The last option is to make a deal at the deadline. And that's not a bad option at all. It gives the Twins prospects more runway to prove how soon they could be major league ready. As this off season began, I posted some trades that I had done on BBTV where I had included Emm-Rod in a deal to acquire a true #2 or even #1 SP. His "value" fit to make a deal possible. Now that I've read more about him I can see that he's right at a point where the Twins just can't trade him. They may regret that they didn't if he really struggles at AA but his upside is just too tantalizing to risk regretting a trade later. The other problem with a deadline deal is that if you have to give up as much, or more, than you would to get that piece later than sooner, you've missed months of having that player on the team and contributing. But waiting until the deadline allows a team to determine if they're really contending or just pretending. Bauer would be an extremely low risk addition from a monetary standpoint. If he worked out it would be great addition. But I am sensitive to the potential downside. I just think it's worth the risk.

I have said many times on here that I would like the Twins to take a chance with Bauer. It wasn't really that he was cleared of any wrong doing. It was that the whole thing was exposed as a shake down to get him to cough up a bunch of money. Which he refused to do. All suits and countersuits were dropped, but the woman trying to shake him down really dodged a bullet. I don't condone what he was accused of. That's just not my bag. But a LOT of accusations were thrown at him that just didn't turn out to be true. I don't know about Bauer being the 3rd best pitcher on his Japanese team last year, but he pitched pretty well. I think he's still got talent and for a guy willing to sign for the league minimum with an incentive laden contract, there is virtually no risk for the Twins. You might see 10 people walking a picket line with signs the first two weeks of the season and then probably nothing the rest of the year. How many of you gave up being a Dalvin Cook fan after his legal problems??? Aren't we supposed to be a forgiving society? Did Red Sox and Yankee fans disown Wade Boggs because he had a sex addiction? Of course not. but by all means, for those of you on TD who are so adamantly opposed to this idea, I invite all of you who are perfect to keep casting your stones.

I like the depth more than last year too. I won't say BEST, but I will say I think it can be very good. Really good, if Varland isn't needed to start and logs some meaningful innings in the pen. I think he remains a SP, so I'm going to downgrade Varland's impact in the bullpen for now, but one name NOT mentioned at all, if healthy, could also have a huge impact...Matt Canterino. The kid has tremendous stuff. He just needs to be healthy and prove the stuff can dominate at St. Paul. Either Varland or Canterino remains a SP or move to the pen. Both are not ending up in the same place. Since Varland has demonstrated he could reach 150 innings, I'm designating him SP #6 and Canterino, once he's dominated at St. Paul, will be a member of the Twins BP.

I was born in 1958, so my heart is always with those 1965, 1969 and 1970 Twins teams. The 1977 team was also really fun to watch or listen to Herb Carneal call the games on radio. They didn't have much pitching, but Carew had his greatest season, winning the MVP and hitting .388. Larry Hisle led the A.L. in RBI and mashed 28 HR's while hitting .302. Hisle also stole over 20 bases. Lyman Bostock hit .336 and had excellent extra base hit power with 36 doubles, 12 triples and 14 HR's. He also scored 104 runs and drove in 90. Unfortunately, Bostock was gone from the Twins for 1978, playing for the Angels and before the season was over, he was gone from this world, victim of a drive by shooting in Gary, Indiana. And Glenn Adams played some OF and DH against RHP and hit .338 in 269 AB's. Those Twins were knocking the ball all over the ballpark. The 1987 and 1991 teams were great and won World Series Championships. 1987 barley had 3 pitchers but a power-laden lineup. 1991 had much better pitching, but lacked the thump of "traditional" Twins teams. 2019 had POWER throughout the lineup but very little strength on the mound. The best Twins teams since 1991 were the 2004-2009 teams that had some very impressive individual talent. Two MVP's and a 2-time (should have been 3-time) Cy young award winner. But ownership never made a big deadline deal to put them fully over the top. When your "Claim to Fame" as a FO is that you delivered SHANNON STEWART that says it all.

We will again, agree to disagree BOM. This is more a discussion of statistics and how "complete" a team is. If this was just about championships" we would be having a discussion of only 1987 and 1991. The 1965 Twins were certainly one of the more "complete" teams in the history of the Twins. Stellar hitting, stellar pitching, an MVP and a runner-up MVP, and a couple of reliable guys in the bullpen. How much better they could have been if Killebrew hadn't been injured and missed about half the season is also an interesting exercise. And when you lose a Game #7 to Sandy Koufax it's tough to accept that 1965 shouldn't at least be #2 (behind 1991).

There is no question that the staff, as it is presently arrayed is enough to win the division (and maybe not enough that we lose the division) but it is one #1 or #2 SP short to seriously challenge in the playoffs. If Varland and Canterino, with the addition of Topa and Staumont as well as the firepower the Twins already have are all in our bullpen THAT is a pen that could be very effective in the regular AND post season. But the question remains, who will be that #2? Let's play make believe that Joe Ryan is more "1st half of the season Joe" than "2nd half of the season Joe" for the entire 2024 season. In my opinion, the Twins STILL NEED one more top shelf arm to be able to go toe to toe with the Orioles (who now have Burnes), the Astros (who are still the Astros and now have Hader), the Rangers (who are the defending World Series Champions) and maybe the Yankees if all their pitchers not named Cole are finally healthy for an entire season (Rodan, Cortes, Stroman etc...). The easy answer with a $47 million dollar windfall from Balley is to sign Montgomery or Snell. The fact that the Twins have never done such a thing and that they probably won't leads to the next question. Do they wait until the trade deadline and try to deal for a good SP on a losing team (when everyone else who's contending will probably be in the same position)? Or do they make a trade within the next couple of days to address this NOW. I prefer the proactive approach. Why wait when waiting means you will need to out bid ALL the other potential contenders and limit your benefit from this SP to 35% of the season? I can hope they will make a fairly quick, proactive move. But I'm not holding my breath.

The elephant in the room is the TV deal. If they are supposed to get 85% of the $55 million they got last year from Balley, then they should be looking at a windfall of just below $47 million. Are they going to use ANY of that on 2024 payroll??? If they did, we should be excited about a Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery signing. How perfect would THAT be? Both are LH starting pitchers, something it seems like we haven't had since the "W" Bush administration. Snell may walk too many guys and Montgomery may not have dominant stuff. But Snell is now a 2-time Cy Young Award winner and Montgomery was tremendous in the playoffs and World Series for the defending champion Rangers. But we all know it's highly unlikely for the Pohlad's to ever make a move like this. What is also unlikely is making a trade for an expensive pitcher like a Luis Castillo. Who knows? The Twins could still offer Seattle Kepler, Miranda, Danny DeAndrade and Thielbar for Castillo and the Mariners could just sign Blake Snell (who reportedly wants to pitch for his hometown Mariners). BBTV calls that trade a slight overpay by the Twins. What is more likely is a trade deadline acquisition that will be more expensive than the above trade and afford the Twins only 35% of the season as opposed to going out and getting that #2 SP right now.

At this point it's disappointing they didn't add someone like Soler. Big bat, questionable glove in the OF but some serious thump in the middle of the lineup. Still, there are a lot of positives to signing Santana. First, he's the anti-Solano. 23 HR's and 86 RBI and the consistent ability to take a walk is everything Solano wasn't. Second, he's a good defensive 1B even if he is 38 years old. Some of us marveled at Solano's ability to play 2B and 1B last year but let's face it, he was a non factor defensively, especially at 2B. A Solano "cutout" could have played similar defense. With Julien, Farmer (tony&rodney said he's no longer on the team in a post but he's still on the team right??) Brooks Lee, Castro and more, there's plenty of 2B options. Santana is very good "Kirilloff Insurance." Santana will probably hit as many HR's and drive in as many runs as Duval would have...assuming Duval has a completely healthy year. One provides good "D" at 1B, the other in the OF. But Santana always answers the bell. Duval will probably finish with 350 AB's tops. I don't think we've seen the end of Julien at 1B either. Especially once Brooks Lee comes up. This could mean more Kirilloff in the outfield and with Wallner and Kepler that makes us pretty LH out there. Especially with Buxton the only true RH option (Castro being a SH). We could be seeing Austin Martin sooner than we think if Buxton's health falters (which it probably will at some point) and if Martin shows well at St. Paul. All in all, the Santana signing probably fell a little short for what most of us wanted, but again, 23 HR's and 86 RBI are nothing to scoff at. Gallo, Solano and Polanco didn't come close to that in 2023. I'd be thrilled if Kirilloff DID put up 23 HR and 86 RBI.

The Twins have LOTS of flexibility and options to explore in the post-Polanco era. Trading Polanco was a no-brainer even if the Twins DID actually trade for a couple of "prospects" in addition to the rotation and bullpen pieces they got, which was something the front office had claimed was NOT going to happen. The key component in ANY calculation going forward revolves around ONE PLAYER...Brooks Lee. While some may disagree with the timetable of Lee's ascension to the big league club, it sure seems like the FO is indicating that if Lee impresses in spring training and doesn't break camp with the Twins, if he once again impresses at St. Paul, the time is very near for his major league debut. I'm betting on Lee. I think if he doesn't break camp with the team, he's up somewhere between May 1st and Memorial Day. And I also think when he's brought up it will not be as a platoon player. He switch hits. He's the 2B the moment he's up. That puts Julien at 1B and probably moves Kirilloff to LF. Kirilloff hasn't proven he can stay healthy yet, but every time I see that swing I see a guy who hits 3rd, 4th, or 5th in just about any future Twins lineup. And if Brooks Lee is killing it in spring training and other teams see they have a huge hole at SS with the team they plan to break camp with, I could see the Twins spinning Farmer off for a good, low level prospect in the mold of Gabriel Gonzalez. Probably not an OF prospect but just about anything else. There are many people who think the Twins are not done making moves and that in fact, the Polanco deal is just a precursor to another, probably bigger deal. We. Shall. See.

MLB Network showed quite a bit of footage of Winokour when the Twins selected him and I was excited by the ease with which he moved for such a big guy and that he looked to have an absolute cannon for an arm. At this point, after the addition of Gabriel Gonzalez, the Twins seem to be loaded with young, talented outfielders. We are still not sure where Winokour will end up: SS? CF? 3B? 1B? Corner Outfield? He looks like he would be a solid defensive addition at any OF position with the benefit of that cannon for an arm. Shortstop would be the premium, but with Correa and Brooks Lee, Tanner Schoebel, Noah Miller, we look to have good depth at SS as well (maybe even Salas). This just gives the Twins more strength to deal some of these guys to add a top flight pitcher in a year or two.

I'm also not content with the rotation. I wonder if the Twins FO really is and whether the statement they are looking for a bat is a smoke-screen. What limited resources we have I would like to see used for the rotation. I like the addition of Topa. I think Staumont has the potential to be a Brock Stewart type. I think Varland and Canterino could be factors and I believe an increased workload for Funderburk will be good. This is why I would like the Twins to take a flyer on Trevor Bauer. I'm no fan of the off the field stuff and it seems a lot of things were assumed that were unfair to him. But he just wants a chance and if I had $10 million to spend on a SP (which doesn't get you much nowadays) I'd spend it on him. He's been an elite pitcher. He still seems to have gas in the tank. He would immediately be our #2 SP pushing DeSclafani to #6 and allowing the Twins for 2024 to use Varland as a multi-inning relief pitcher. By any metric he's a low risk/high reward move. That's what the Twins need. They need UPSIDE, and Bauer could provide that. The guy just wants a chance and I think would sign for below market. The Twins would offer him a better chance than many other teams. A one year deal would be extremely low risk, but I'd even consider a two year deal for the stability of the rotation and to give younger pitchers more time to develop and contribute. I think he'd have a bigger impact on the Twins 2024 season than a hitter.

It's certainly possible that despite what the FO is "saying" they might just be done for now. It would be true to the Twins cautious nature to see what they have and identify a deadline pitcher and/or hitter and make the move then. It's also possible that they could be rewarded with their patience if Brooks Lee has a sizzling debut and Emmanuel Rodriguez takes a BIG stride forward and they are calling him up sometime between the All-Star game and August 1st.