TopGunn#22

I agree with mikelink45! Thanks for all the video. It really helps you see his stuff. Anyone that consistently throws mid 90's and can hit 97-98 has a major league fastball. What impressed me was the sharp break and movement of his slider and curveball. Even with MLB making $5-$15 million dollars available to about 8 teams (the Twins being one of them) with the stipulation that the money cannot be pocketed by ownership, it must be spent to improve the ballclub, I just don't see the Pohlad's taking advantage of this. It's possible we see Matthews up sometime in August as opposed to a high profile trade. The big difference between Matthews and, say, Festa or Varland is command. That walk rate is IMPRESSIVE. Maybe 2 more starts for St. Paul and he's part of the big league club. The development of Matthews may make Varland becoming a bullpen piece a certainty.

This is a very interesting agreement and lots of good comments regarding it. I just can't believe that MLB or the MLBPA would agree to any of this extra income unless there was a specific stipulation that this revenue be spent to improve a team's roster. They simply cannot just let teams pocket this money (as the Pohlad's are most likely to want to do). EVERYTHING about this process should be made public. No team getting money should be able to just pocket it. There are nine teams that fall within the parameters. The Rockies are the only team that is a certainty NOT to take advantage of this. That leaves 8 teams who could. The Twins will have no excuses if they fail to take advantage of this. They need a pitcher to slot in at #3, behind Lopez and Ryan and ahead of Ober and SWR. This "pennies from heaven" revenue gives the Pohlad's a reason to spend a little to improve the ballclub. If, after this possible shot in the arm with potential revenue the Pohlad's remain averse to spending additional money, there is still a pitcher in Mexico who could be had for the league minimum and who would probably relish an opportunity to pitch in meaningful games against Cleveland.

I have no doubt at all that Twins ownership will use the excuse of slightly lower attendance this season to stand pat at the trade deadline. It's the Pohlad way. I was a little surprised at the TV revenue figures listed in the article. I had always thought that Twins 2023 TV revenue from Diamond Sports was $55 million (the article listed it as $60 million for 2023). And I thought the figure we all discussed on TD after it was announced the team was going back to Diamond Sports for this year was $47 million (roughly 85% of what 2023's revenue had been). Whatever the precise revenue figures are, really isn't relevant to the Pohlad's. They were going to cut salary/expenses no matter what for 2024. Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City all made moves to be competitive and it's worked out pretty well for the Guardians and Royals. Heck, the Royals just added Hunter Henry to their struggling bullpen. That's a decent move. I don't disagree that the biggest additions the Twins can and will make before or soon after the trade deadline will be Royce Lewis, Brock Stewart and Justin Topa (and maybe Varland to the BP). However, none of those moves improve the starting rotation. Adding a SP who at worst would slot in as the #3 behind Lopez and Ryan and pushes Ober to #4 and SWR to #5 is a need that should filled if the Pohlad's are serious about defending their A.L. Central crown and making some noise in the playoffs. The American League pennant is there for the taking. The Yankees suddenly look beatable. The Astros ain't the Astros anymore. Cleveland is catchable and beatable. Seattle has gotten no help at all offensively from Jorge Polanco and despite great pitching has a weak lineup top to bottom. The team to beat is Baltimore, and the only chance the Twins have is to get healthy and find a SP who has similar talent to Lopez and Ryan. But I'm not holding my breath that such a move will be made.

Yeah, I would really like to see them sign Hill. Spend a little over his slot to make it happen.

Typical Twins draft so far in that they went Hitter, Hitter, Hitter before selecting LHP Hill with their 4th pick. Then a couple catchers and an OF (and one of the catchers can play OF). Then 3 pitchers in a row (looking forward to calling Jason Doctorcyzk "Doc" when he finally makes it to the big leagues). I like the picks so far, especially LHP Dasan Hill. Hoping they can sign that kid. His video and his projectability are attention getting.

I think Doc Gast made a great point of trying not to sell low. But that's not always in the cards you're dealt. Sometimes you have to factor in the number of guys that have passed a prospect by in your system. I'm sure the Cubs thought they were getting a heck of a pitcher in Ernie Broglio back in 1964 and for whatever reason, felt they didn't need Lou Brock anymore. These types of discussions always ramp up around draft time/trade deadline time. A team adds new talent and some players just don't perform due to injury or lack of talent. There is no doubt that Kirilloff has the talent. He hasn't been able to stay healthy. But corner outfield spots are going to get pretty crowded even with the probable departure of Max Kepler this off season. 1B can be filled by Miranda and Julien going forward. If I can get a young, hard throwing LHP (whose stock is also "distressed" at this time) I would make that trade KNOWING that I have Miranda, Julien, Castro, Larnach, Wallner, E-Rod, and maybe even Kiersey waiting in the wings. Detmers is an excellent suggestion for this type of possible trade. Someone like Joe Adell would NOT be someone I'd be interested in. I wonder what other suggestions Ted or anyone else would have?

I would do it. There comes a time when you just can't wait any longer. Kirilloff fits this profile. The Angels have guys like Detmers and Adell that do as well. I'd take a chance on a young lefty SP.

Because the Pohlad's own the team, money will always be tight. They will spend from time to time but never for an extended length of time. If the topic is improving our starting pitching significantly at little cost, there is only one guy our there who can deliver on BOTH of those criteria. He's been discussed before. If we were to make a trade, I agree with the "Ober Principal" in that, if we're going to acquire someone, he not only needs to be better than Paddack, he must at minimum meet what Ober provides and better yet, exceed it. That is the only way we get better in our rotation. Adding fringe guys to our rotation like Shoemaker, Happ, DeSclafani and the like never have and never will have a positive impact. The Twins will only tread water with guys like this. They won't reach the beach. The bullpen could improve quite a bit if Stewart and Topa enter the mix and Varland moves into a BP role.. Especially if Stewart picks up where he left off. The rotation is NOT going to improve if the twins do nothing. We are expecting Lopez and Ryan to pitch like Aces. Last night, Ryan fell far short of that. We have shaved a decent amount of Cleveland's lead as we get ready to head into the All Star break, but I predict we won't catch them unless we give our rotation a shot in the arm.

Walker Jenkins is talented and I believe he will continue to get better and better. His lack of power so far this year is a slight concern. All he needs is a 2-week power tear and any concern washes down the drain. There is no question in my mind that 2025 will be the year for E-Rod. He should probably be in St. Paul sometime soon and will probably be back in St. Paul to begin 2025, but E-Rod will be up and playing regularly for the Twins by June of next year and might just get a cup of coffee this year. Walker Jenkins is a talent that the Twins FO will not be able to contain. He's 6:5 225 pounds. The power will come. It won't be immediate but soon enough, he will be a Twin. The thought of Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, E-Rod and Walker Jenkins with a host of other highly thought of Twins prospects (Miranda, Julien, Wallner, even Larnach and Kirilloff) is a feeling similar to the T-Wolves situation where you have Ant, KAT, Rudy and McDaniels with Dillingham and Shannon, maybe throw in a Leonard Miller/Luke Garza? it's an exciting NOW as well as an exciting future.

There will be a lot of names tossed out into the buffet of players available come the trade deadline. Some will be too costly, some too risky, some a little too hot, some a little too cold. In the buffet of names that have been listed I'm being a little choosey. I don't like anything on the buffet yet but I'm happy to keep looking.

It's good to know Stewart should be back by the end of July and Topa sometime in early August. Counting on either however is risky, especially Stewart. When he's "dealing" he's tremendous. But staying healthy has been an issue his entire career, Varland could be a big help, or a total flop. One thing IS certain. They need a dependable LHP in the pen. Funderburk and Okert have not impressed. Thielbar is soon to be DFA'd in my opinion. They need a lefty. The offense is clicking now even without Lewis. It's gonna hurt that he will miss as much time as he will but he will be the "deadline bat" this front office adds. Wallner mashing would also be a tremendous boost.

Good article !! These are some interesting options. A LOT of this depends on the return of Stewart and Topa and the eventual addition of Varland to the BP. As always, this comes down to cost of acquisition. Let's start winnowing them down. Jansen-Don't see the Red Sox trading him. They are competing for a Wild Card. Cruz-Don't really see the Reds trading him either especially with the multiple years of control and the fact that he strikes guys out by the ton. Yates-A proven closer and high leverage guy but probably far too expensive (prospect-wise) and a FA at seasons end. Yimi Garcia-Health and impending FA make him unlikely. Nick Mears-Interesting arm that we could probably improve upon. 27 years old currently on a one-year deal for $750,000. A decent possibility. But with Stewart, Topa and possibly Varland, what role does a RH arm like Mears fill when Cole Sands has be decent?? Andrew Nardi-Left-Handed...CHECK!! His stats don't look good but his underlying stats look very good. He's not a junk-baller with a 96+ fastball and a hard biting slider. I see Nardi as a definite target. A package for him and Jesus Luzardo would check 2 boxes. It would probably be steep but could prove to be well worth it for 2024 and beyond. I lack confidence in Okert. I see the end for Thielbar, and for as much of a booster as I've been for Funderburk he's struggling this year. He needs to polish up some rough edges for sure. I know Vasquez is a negative asset, but he would be considered a Silver Slugger at catcher on the Marlins. Their catchers are the worst in baseball and they don't hit. The Marlins have a young pitching staff that Vasquez could be very beneficial to. They were reportedly interested in him this last off season. A deal for Luzardo and Nardi would take some prospect power, maybe a Gonzalez or Julien. But if Vasquez were thrown in and we paid the remainder of his salary for this season along with Julien/Gonzalez and someone like Winder/Zebby Matthews, maybe that would be good enough to get Luzardo and Nardi. I'm all for giving Jeffers more AB's and a chance to Camargo.

He seems much more patient and locked in to what is a strike and what isn't. He also isn't trying to do "too much." He's not swinging for the fences, trying to lift the ball for a superior launch angle. He's taking the outside pitch the opposite way, he's turning on middle-in pitches with a vengeance. Max Kepler had a couple of AB's a couple games ago where he just pushed the outside pitch into left-center field. He picked up clutch RBI's on each hit. If I didn't know better (and I don't) I'd swear the Twins have made a subtle change to their overall approach. We're now seeing the Miranda that we all expected/hoped for after he had terrorized AAA pitching in St. Paul. His first year was promising. His second year was terrible, maybe due to health issues. But this year he's a #3, #4, #5 hitter in a potent lineup. A bat like that MUST stay in the lineup, defense be damned. He should get the majority of his AB's as a DH but still fill in occasionally at 3B and 1B. Santana has played too well this season to give up AB's to Miranda, but starting in 2025, if Santana is a one-year rental, Miranda should be the primary 1B/DH. Next year will truly be make or break for Kirilloff unless he's traded at the deadline or during the winter. It pains me to say that, but the guy with the "Will Clarkesque" swing is running out of chances. With Brooks Lee up now, and with Correa and Royce Lewis, SS, 3B and 2B are covered for the most part. That leaves Miranda, Kirilloff and Julien to battle for 1B/DH. Julien can fill in at 2B, Kirilloff in LF/RF and Miranda at 3B when not playing 1B or DH'ing. That's SOLID flexibility, and I haven't even mentioned Castro. Depending on the continued development of guys like Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff and E-Rod, Castro could be starting in LF a LOT in the future. This is a GREAT problem to have going forward.

I have been forbidden to mention the former Cy Young pitcher who is currently dominating the Mexican League on pain of suspension, so I will not mention him. However, I will point out that while he remains a divisive character, he is precisely what the Twins need. An Ace level SP who could be had at the league minimum with affordable incentives if he pitches well. From the Twins standpoint, he checks all the boxes. It couldn't be more teed up. I would wager that if he was outstanding in his first 5 starts or so he could be signed to an affordable 2-year contract for 2025 & 2026. For some reason, we can't seem to have a civil discussion about what he could bring to a Twins rotation. Much like politics today, a civil discussion does not seem possible. That disappoints me. I like politics and the interesting discussion/debates of various policies. Nowadays that is discouraged or flat out forbidden. I understand and accept that discussion of said pitcher is discouraged so this will be my only comment unless the moderators decide we can handle any future discussions in an acceptable manner. But from a purely BASEBALL standpoint, the Mexican League guy would look pretty darn good as our #3 SP.

Not much to argue or dispute what you guys have laid out here. One of the more interesting 2025 roster decisions will be how Julien fits into everything with Brooks Lee fully on board. There is no doubt in my mind that Julien will be back up sometime this season and will produce at a desired level. That will lay the groundwork for how things will stack up in 2025. We have young talent emerging offensively. That often entails some ups and downs as that young talent further matures. The timeline is different for everyone. Lewis showed that when he's healthy, he's an impact bat. He just has to stay healthy. Julien and Wallner were pretty darn good last year but endured terrible starts to their 2024 season. Brooks Lee had a nice debut last night and he will continue to show promise while probably struggling a bit at times. Jeffers was an All Star who suddenly hit a wall. Can he regain his swing?? I like what I've seen from Larnach this season. I hope he can keep building on it. Miranda has bounced back emphatically. The biggest disappointment for me is Alex Kirilloff. He has such a nice swing, but he's running out of runway. Especially when you see the improvement from Miranda and Larnach. And there is still Emmanuel Rodriguez on the way and a rebounding Wallner. And as always Walker Jenkins lurks for the possibly not too distant future. When he's ready, he will shove almost anyone else to the side. What we certainly have right now though is a rotation that is one SP short. Lopez is looking much better lately as the staff Ace. Ryan is showing is first half last year was not a fluke. He's showing Ace potential. Ober and SWR look like viable pieces of a rotation. But that final spot is a black hole and with the struggles of Festa and Varland and the next best options just getting their feet wet in AA there is no immediate or even next year candidate available in our farm system. Something needs to be done to patch that hole this season and for the near future until Festa or Matthews or anyone else in AA has a little more polish than they do right now. A trade? A free agent signing? A trade or FA signing that brings a heavy expense to the payroll just isn't going to happen with a Pohlad owned team. That much is a certainty. Can this front office come up with a miraculous move to put the Twins in a better position??

Good point LambchoP. I conveniently and erroneously left out the fact that he's injured now and can't help us in the immediate future. And no trade could be made unless and until the Twins were confident that a full recovery would be expected for Luzardo. I think the Twins still need someone reliable to fill out their rotation. Someone with a proven track record of success but who wouldn't break the bank in a trade or signing. I imagine the Twins are scouring all available options and are having internal debates about what is out there.

I agree that Festa doesn't look like he's ready. It's debatable whether they should even give him one more start. He's given up 5 runs in 5 innings in start #1 (it was somewhat overlooked with a 13-run outburst) and now 7 runs in five innings last night. He's just not ready. There was another thread on the topic of trade interest in Matt Wallner. As Doogie was the source there is always a little bit of skepticism regarding his "scoops," but I would like to suggest a package with Wallner being a part of it in a trade for Jesus Luzardo. We have a gaping hole in our #5 spot in the rotation. Paddack is not the answer. Festa is not the answer. Varland is not the answer, and Dobnak is not the answer. Luzardo is having a bad year year for a now "dumpster fire" Marlins organization. His value appears to be the lowest it has been in a long time. I'm not sure where Wallner's value is at after his rough spring and now red hot June, (he had roughly a 14.0 value last time I checked BBTV's in the winter) but improving the rotation by adding a #2 with 2 more years of control after this season seems like a good move for the "NOW" and the "FUTURE." I would be happy with a staff or Lopez, Ryan, Luzardo, Ober and SWR. It's not like I'm desperate to give up Wallner. I love his power and cannon-like arm in a corner OF. But we need to shore up our staff in the "now" and "future" time frame and with Emmanuel Rodriguez on the way and Trevor Larnach showing a bit more consistency I would pursue a move like this. It would probably take Wallner and "something else" to pull it off. I don't use Baseball Trade Values anymore because I refuse to pay for something year round that I would only use in July and maybe December-January.

RpR, I meant no disrespect for Maury Wills. I just wanted to highlight that Mays had a much better year than Maury had in 1962 and that Willie's team actually won the National League Pennant over the Dodgers. Ever since Sandy Koufax pitched the Dodgers to a World Series win over the Twins in 1965, the Dodgers have been my 2nd favorite team and Koufax was a player I admired greatly. I don't understand why you're trying to stir something up from my comment, but I do notice that you frequently give "Thumbs Down" reactions to many people's takes. That is your right, but I do think you go out of your way to be "contrary." By all means I am not demanding you change your adversarial nature, but the tone of your comment to me was odd and out of place. You seem to be the only one commenting on this topic who seems to want to stir the pot. I wouldn't even have commented back if I hadn't gotten a notice that someone commented back to me on something I'd written. I clicked on it and it took me here. The comments on here are a week or so old, so I'm hopeful you've calmed down since then.

Waldschmidt makes sense. I always appreciate the time and work you put into this Jeremy. Projecting the MLB draft is a LOT tougher than the NFL or NBA.

None of the listed pitchers would probably be of any interest to the Twins. If the Twins really had ANY interest in Snell, they would have signed him before all of his current struggles, both in performance and with health. The Twins need a pitcher with a solid major league track record, who is currently healthy and who would sign for a very cheap contract, maybe throw in some incentives, because I'm sure we would all agree, they are probably NOT adding much to the payroll for the rest of this season. There might be a guy who fits this profile out there, but I doubt the Twins would want to trade any minor league talent to get this kind of guy. Paddack is currently hurt and out of the rotation. If we're honest, Festa didn't really pitch that well in his first start, giving up 5 runs in 5 innings, but they've got to give him a longer look. Lopez has looked better. Ryan is pitching really well, and Ober has looked better recently. SWR has earned the #4 spot unless he goes on a month long slide.

This is REALLY INTERSESTING info Riverbrian !! I would never have guessed that the Twins were so far down the line. But I guess this is what happens when you cling to a vet like Thielbar who really started to slip last year and came into this year by far the most expensive arm in our bullpen, while being virtually guaranteed a minimum of 2 stints on the IL (and probably more) and/or sign a host of retread bullpen arms at the expense of a Funderburk or Alcala, or clinging to a Farmer or Margot when a Brooks Lee or Kiersey or even a Wallner could or should be playing instead. This winter I repeatedly listed Cleveland as my main worry for defending our divisional title due to the fact that they always pitch effectively, and teams that pitch well are ALWAYS in games. The difference for Cleveland THIS year is that Kwan is hitting almost .400 and Ramirez is mashing. Top to bottom their lineup is slugging much better than it has the last couple of years. The other factor is the EXTREME correction by Emmanuel Clase from last year to this. Last year, Clase was much worse than he'd been in the previous couple years. THIS year, Clase is having an EPIC season out of the bullpen. Cleveland knows how to use Clase, and it shows. Rocco doesn't have a clear cut role for Duran...and it shows. THAT'S why Cleveland is running away with this division. I hope the twins can rally and make it a race after the All Star break.

He lost an MVP vote to Maury Wills in 1962, the year Wills stole 104 bases and the Dodgers lost in a playoff to the Giants and the Yankees eventually beat S.F. in seven games when Bobby Richardson gloved Willie McCovey's 2-out line shot. Mays played 162 games, hit .304 with 49 HRs, 141 RBI and 130 runs scored. Mays slugged .615. Contrast that to Wills who, because of the playoff played in ALL 165 games that year, stole his 104 bases, hit .299 and slugged .373. He also scored 130 runs but only drove in 51. Wills was never praised for his defense. His entire career it was borderline average. Mays on the other hand won the Gold Glove in CF and actually led his team to the pennant. There is a strong case to be made that Willie should have won the N.L. MVP in 1962.

Technically Duran blew a "Hold" as he came in for the 8th inning and it wasn't a save situation unless he had come out to pitch the 9th as well. I agree with RV78 regarding our manager. It's spreadsheet, spreadsheet, spreadsheet for Rocco. I don't think I've ever seen him make a move that would have departed from his spreadsheet. I once saw Billy Martin send Rich Reese up to pinch hit with the bases loaded in the 7th inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles in 1969 with lefty Dave McNally on the mound going for what could have been a major league record 16th win in a row. The lefty vs lefty matchup is something Rocco would NEVER do. Reese hit a Grand Slam HR to deep left center field at the old Met Stadium, something Justin Morneau would refer to as an "oppo taco." At some point, a manager needs to "manage." Not just glance at a spreadsheet and check a box.

I appreciate the effort for the article Matthew but "fringy bullpen guys who have struggled this season" are not going to solve the Twins problems. They need to fortify the bullpen by putting Varland in and moving Paddack there after calling Festa up to fill his spot in the rotation. A trade for someone like Jesus Luzardo to bolster and deepen the rotation along with Pablo getting back on track would go a long way too. I realize that fringy RP's who are struggling in the current season is the lowest cost, highest reward possibility. But if we're honest, bringing in 4 guys to replace all the bullpen slugs we signed during the off season just isn't going to move the needle. Moving on from Thielbar ASAP would also be addition by subtraction.

I have a hard time predicting what this FO will do as well. That includes Rocco, who continues to use Duran in non-closing situations. Not sure why he felt the need to bring him in for the 8th inning in a non-save situation. Who was going to pitch the 9th if we had gone to the bottom of the 9th with a lead? I don't think Duran is happy with his usage. It may be affecting his pitching. Most teams have clearly defined roles for their bullpens. Rocco never has. It's been a disorganized hodgepodge since he became our manager in 2019. "Saving guys for leverage situations" just leads to confusion with your role. The most successful bullpens I've known in MLB have a 7th inning guy, an 8th inning guy and a CLOSER. The Twins were ready to have Lee break camp with the major league team in spring training before the injury bug bit him. I agree that some additional time at 2B would help him, but I think he could handle 2B with Castro becoming the full-time LF. They haven't gotten squat from Farmer all season and it's clear keeping him at $6.6 million was a major mistake by this FO. We have the benefit of hindsight as fans, but we're just calling them as we see them. The veteran bullpen pieces with the exception of Staumont have been major fails as well. We would be better off cutting ties with most of the veteran off season acquisitions and just go with younger players to get a better handle on decisions that will need to be made for next year. The purpose of the minor leagues is not to win championships, although that's not a bad thing. The purpose is to develop talent for the major league roster. Lee is still a SS but he's blocked from playing a lot of SS by Correa for the foreseeable future. He should have been playing half of his games at 2B since last season. If he hasn't, that's a failure of the FO and those in the organization who determine these things.