TopGunn#22

This is the classic addition by subtraction move. The question is, who in the heck would have any interest in Margot? When Lewis gets here there will need to be a move made. The move to keep Farmer is looking worse and worse each day as well. A LOT of salary squandered on those two (not to mention the $10 million for Vasquez). I was surprised Farmer was retained due to Brooks Lee lurking. Then Lee got hurt and it made sense...for about 5 games. Farmer's struggles at the plate really exposed the folly of bringing him back for $6+ Million. I wasn't a fan of the Margot trade from the get go. Yes, Margot has been terrible, but I didn't like giving up a Platinum Gold Glove SS in the deal either.

We seen this before from Ryan, as USAFChief pointed out. The key for Ryan is to avoid the 10-game stretch where he gives up 3 HR's a game. Historically, he just hasn't been able to sustain what he's showed over last year's first half and now this this year. Don't get me wrong, I'll take what he's done so far. But with Pablo struggling mightily, Joe needs to put an entire season like this together. I'm also worried about SWR and regression. He's been rock solid so far. Much better than the Twins actually hoped. And Paddack has been better than what I think the Twins were realistically expecting. We are falling further behind Cleveland and the Royals, even with this "bonus juice" from the #4 & #5 spots in the rotation. I wonder if the Twins would consider making a move for Jesus Luzardo if the price was right. I expect the Marlins to be having a garage sale, possibly even a little before the actual trade deadline. There is always Festa to consider as well, but I wonder when arms like Paddack and Varland start getting consideration for a bullpen move.

I've got to bring this up. We've discussed this at times over the last couple of years. But what is Watkins thinking sending Vasquez and then Santana on consecutive games and getting them thrown out at the plate by 20+ feet for out #3??? Kirilloff's blasts cover over the inexcusable decisions Watkins is making. I can see sending Buxton, but Vasquez?? Zeke Duran has an absolute CANNON and his throw to the plate from LF gave Santana no chance whatsoever to score from 2B on a single to LF. "MAYBE" you send Santana if Jankowski is playing LF for the Rangers. I just can't forgive Watkins for thinking Santana had ANY chance of beating a throw from Duran. Both of these boneheaded decisions from Watkins came in close games and were crushingly BAD outcomes. Kirilloff comes to the rescue in both games, but this is something Watkins is guilty of fairly consistently.

Should have mentioned Austin martin as part of the OF mix as well.

Hopefully Byron Buxton remains healthy and has a good year for the Twins. We need it. But if the inevitable injury happens and Byron is on the shelf for longer than 10-14 days, it may be time to finally promote Keirsey. If that happens, the time would be right to promote E-Rod from AA to St. Paul. I think E-Rod's play has already merited heavy consideration for promotion. But a corresponding promotion is needed to open a spot for him. Maybe the Twins should have packaged Wallner in a trade for a bona-fide SP this winter but it's cheating to look at this through that kind of hindsight. Wallner still remains a viable power hitting/cannon armed corner outfield prospect for the Twins. But there is a big crowd of present and future Twins jostling for OF positions: Buxton, Larnach, Kirilloff, Castro (LF), E-Rod, Wallner, Keirsey, Jenkins, not to mention Max Kepler. Is he gone at the trade deadline? Not until the completion of this season? What if Max continues to be the best OF the Twins have? Will we still send him away or let him walk? The good news is that we're not looking at some of the dregs we have in the past to play OF. The not so good news is that some decisions need to made in the not too distant future, certainly within 2 years. Who stays and who goes?

Margot was a mistake. Admit it and move on. Keirsey could help the Twins, especially if Buxton goes down. What are the odds of that happening? (think about this for a moment--how long do you expect Buxton to "be healthy)?" Promoting Keirsey to the Twins and E-Rod to St. Paul doesn't "reek of desperation." It promotes a player who could help the big club if given a specific role and moves a player tearing up AA to AAA. I think it's a normal and logical progression. Speaking of non-desperation, Lewis will be coming back in the not too distant future and Brooks Lee will be moving Kyle Farmer out of a roster spot within a month and a half. Margot should just be DFA'd. Maybe they can get something for Farmer in a trade.

It's tough to judge when 2 out of the 3 have been injured for the entire season so far. However, Jenkins is still clearly the #1 guy. The realistic expectation of him, once he gets on the field, is that he will continue to rake and continue to impress all the way to finishing this season in AA. Lee's herniated disc worries me, but if Julien continues to struggle and certainly if Farmer continues to disappoint, Lee will be with the Twins within a month and he'll stick. The only guy actually playing in this comparison is E-Rod. Please stop with "Emma" guys. You write that and the image I get is of Gwyneth Paltrow, NOT Emmanuel Rodriguez!! I don't yearn to see Gwyneth roaming in CF and crushing tape measure HR's. (if there is a sarcasm font, I couldn't find it). In all seriousness, it's probably time to promote E-Rod to St. Paul and see how it goes. He and Kiersey can split time in CF and the corners to prepare either, or both, for an eventual call-up.

I agree with your concern Alex. He's certainly not throwing as hard as he did last year. At his current age though, I don't think that matters at all. When you can throw 99-100 mph that's still pretty impressive. Not as impressive as 103-104 mph but that's still a LOT to work with. The more concerning thing to me is not velocity, but command and confidence. There are clearly pitches he doesn't seem to have the confidence in, or the command of, to throw, regardless of the count. His "splinker" was hammered yesterday by Meneses and before that it was his curve or slider (whatever Duran is calling it). I also think that Duran is frustrated by the way Rocco is using him. To me, it seems like Duran wants to CLOSE games and is miffed at being called on in the 7th or 8th inning to get "meat of the order" hitters out in a non-save situation. I just don't understand how a guy like Jax can come in, throw 6 pitches in the 7th and then be sent to the showers rather than coming out and taking the 8th inning. Six pitches is barely an appearance. After a guy has warmed up and only needs a handful of pitches to finish an inning I think it makes more sense to send him out there again. This is one of my bigger gripes with "analytics."

I sense a growing frustration from Twins fans with the current FO as well as the manager. The frustrations with our ownership have been well chronicled. It's well past time for the Margot failure to be admitted to and moved on from. Kiersey would be an excellent addition as a LH bat to give Buxton a day off to DH as well as provide speed off the bench late in games. Emmanuel Rodriguez continues to rake in AA. It should only be a matter of time before Royce Lewis makes it back. If Julien keeps taking called third strikes it may only be a matter of time before Brooks Lee gets a chance and Julien goes to St. Paul to find his stroke and his eye. I am impressed with the defensive improvement of Julien, but he is really disappointing at the plate thus far. Alex Kirilloff confounds me. The swing looks great, but you just can't keep fouling pitches off that you should be hammering. I'm starting to wonder if I was far too optimistic with him. Miranda is swinging better this year, but he's a future DH, which means he really doesn't have a future with the Twins. I had all but given up on Larnach and he looks like a different hitter than the last two years so far. Just play Kepler. He's been a regular in the past, stop wasting AB's with Margot. How the Twins can win 12 in a row and 17 of 21 and then go on a (at this point) 7 game losing streak in which they are barely competitive is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. After a frugal off season in which the paltry moves the Twins made are starting to look, well, paltry, I think attendance is going to take a big hit this year. And with just a one-year deal with Balley, what will be the Twins media status and revenue outlook for 2025??

I will. But the season is still young. Santana has really given the Twins a lift during the last couple of weeks. Margot on the other hand is worthless (even after his 3-run double). The sooner they move on from Margot, the better.

Wow, we just can't have good things. This article drops, and now Stewart is on the I.L. Funderburk just recalled to replace him. Makes me wonder AGAIN about Max Effort every pitch. You know, Goose Gossage sure looked like he was giving Max Effort every time he threw, but he had a long and successful career. But every arm, shoulder and elbow just isn't built that way.

Castro--Not going anywhere. Solid defensive versatility and SPEED. I consider Castro a key piece. Thielbar--For Caleb, it's all about health. He will land on the I.L. at least two more times this season. We have Funderburk, in every way a competent major league relief pitcher down in St. Paul. This is Caleb's last season. If his health holds up, he'll finish the year with the Twins. Farmer--A solid glove at 2nd, 3rd and SS he has to hit to his career numbers to avoid being traded or DFA 'd. Brooks Lee is getting healthier and closer to playing. Farmer is safe for now. But if Lee hits the ground running in St. Paul and Farmer continues to struggle at the plate, Farmer probably shouldn't finish the year with the Twins, despite his $6.3 million dollar salary. Santana--Nice to see the 3 HR's in back-to back-to back games. But with Kirilloff and Miranda hitting, the ice was getting pretty thin for Carlos. I will predict Santana cools off in the not too distant future and when Royce Lewis comes back Santana's time (and AB's) will dwindle. Jay Jackson--Jackson has a pretty decent track record but he's got to perform. Alcala is deserving of another opportunity and if some of these veteran guys don't do the job the Twins may just turn to the younger arms. Alcala and Funderburk and Varland for that matter if they consider the bullpen an option for him, are wasting bullets in St. Paul. Margot--The seat is the hottest for Margot. Frankly, the only thing I could see saving him is to go on a hot streak (similar to Santana's 3 game stretch). As guys get healthy or if they continue to perform at the major league level (Martin, who was not tearing it up but was clearly better than Margot to date) or in the minors (Kiersey) there could be no choice but to cut bait with Margot even if other teams are paying all but $4 million of his salary.

No, that's different Tar Heel. We TRADED Graterol (reluctantly) to get a guy for our rotation (Maeda) who gave us some very good return on the trade.

Yeah Seth, I agree. Let's STOP this "Emma" nonsense and just call him E-Rod for Pete's Sake ! Exciting to see some of these bats getting off to such a good start, and no mention of Walker Jenkins at all as he works to get healthy ! Kiersey is starting to grow on me. It started around August last year and not that I'm hoping for injuries or anything, but I'd love to see the kid get a 2-4 week shot with the Twins. That kind of speed and that kind of defense just jumps out for me. As a 4th outfielder with pinch running ability late in games or to begin the 10th inning at 2nd base could pay some dividends. I get that he's got a little more to prove, but he really intrigues me. Getting off to a hot start is always nice. Sustaining it is the challenge. Already looking forward to your May wrap up in early June.

Nice article Ted, and I always appreciate the random word here or there for vocabulary purposes. In this case "lacuna" which means "a blank space or missing part." Nicely done !! I remember when Brock Stewart was an up and coming starter in the Dodgers system, but who never really cleared the hurdle to become a part of their rotation. When he was throwing absolute gas out of the pen last year, I wondered how the Dodgers could ever let an arm like his get away. You've answered that question. How guys can go from throwing 92-93 to 97-98 like Stewart is remarkable to me. The MLB Players Union wants to blame all these pitcher injuries on the pitch clock being sped up. Anyone who ever watched Bob Gibson or Jim Kaat work knows that theory is nonsense. I'm sure the "Max Effort" on every pitch philosophy is at the center of these arm issues but that doesn't change how I marvel at Brock Stewart just coming in and blowing guys away each opportunity he's given. I don't know how long Stewart can keep this up, but he's a guy who has my confidence level WAY UP whenever he comes into a game.

As far as the Margot trade and what we gave up. I know we have a lot of SS "prospects" but lots of SS prospects end up getting moved to a different position. And when I see Correa play SS and I hearken back to watching someone like Ozzie Smith, the idea of having a Platinum Glove SS is REALLY appealing to me. We will probably regret giving him up, especially for a "talent" like Margot. I'm not sure Margot will finish this season with the Twins.

To me, the short term decision is also the long term decision: Play Austin Martin and continue to monitor E-Rod's progress. It's possible Martin just takes the position if things are worse for Buxton than we realize right now. Now that we're not trying to change Martin's approach to unlock possible "power potential" I'm happy with a guy that makes contact, gets on base at a high clip and can steal some bases hitting #1 or #2 or #8/#9 in our lineup. And all the while, keep monitoring Emmanuel Rodriguez's progress at AA. The Twins "COULD" promote him directly from AA but I would advise against that. And of course, this is all moot if Buxton just has some knee soreness and he'll be fine after some time off. The only reason we're really discussing this as Twins fans at this point is that we're all more than a little nervous about Buxton.

This is what makes the Margot signing questionable if he's NOT really the backup to Buxton in CF. It's probably wise to IL Byron for 10 days and get Austin Martin back up. I would love to see E-Rod get a chance, but I don't think he's quite ready and I've been pleased with what Austin Martin has done so far. If martin had NOT played as well as he did, I'd probably be clamoring for E-Rod )or Kiersey).

No. And can we finally put this speculative thread that bubbles up occasionally to bed at last? There are plenty of other topics we could discuss than to keep dredging this up. Has Carlos Santana found his stroke? Did getting a save "save" Caleb Theilbar's Twins career? Trevor Bauer did WHAT in the Mexican League? Should he join our rotation? Duran is not going to be a SP ever again.

Oh, there is blame aplenty to go around. It all starts with ownership. The idea $30 million needed to be cut from the salary budget when there was no great mystery the Pohlad's were NOT going to be $55 million in the hole for the 2024 season is laughable. They KNEW there were going to get a pretty hefty sum from Balley for 2024. These things don't just suddenly happen. They got $48 million. Cutting $30 million wasn't necessary. I'm not against dealing aging players to give younger, up and coming players a chance. With Julien, Brooks Lee and even Austin Martin in the pipeline there was no need to keep Polanco. So this brings me to the FO. This FO has always been either a home run or a strikeout. Much like their hitters. They either push all the right buttons with veteran pickups, like last year with the exception of Gallo (which made zero sense from the beginning--adding a LH bat when the team craved a RH bat). Or they push all the wrong buttons like Margot and Santana, or every veteran they brought in for the bullpen, also keeping an aging Theilbar when Funderburk is the obvious successor, to hanging on to an expensive utility guy like Farmer. The hitters need to hit. But I watch their approach and I wonder "are they being coached to this" or do they just have no plan or sense of situational hitting. The Twins are incredibly frustrating to watch while batting. I go back to the ownership and FO. They needed to fill the void left by Sonny Gray's exit and essentially chose not to. They deemed DeSclafani the replacement and then went with Varland as the #5 SP. Cleveland, Detroit and KC all WORKED to get better and it shows so far. If ownership imposed a "salary cap" for lack of a better term and the need for a veteran SP was acute, the answer was right there all along and actually still is.

There is a LOT of baseball left to play but right now the Twins are taking all the joy out of watching baseball with their inability to hit OR pitch. First hitting: In addition to all the other hitting stats the Twins are terrible at they are leading the majors in called 3rd strikes. If there is some kind of "approach" each hitter is being coached to apply each at bat I cannot figure out what it is. As a team, they look completely out of sorts. Many of us on TD have questioned this approach since 2020. Even in 2019, when balls were flying out of ballparks there were far too many strikeouts with runners on 2nd & 3rd and less than 2 outs. Consider this: Ryan was DEALING the other day against the Tigers. We have the lead. Their #9 hitter gets a gift walk on what should have been a called 3rd strike. Meadows then steals 2nd base. He comes in on a bloop hit. That hitter then steals 2nd base and comes in on an inside out jam shot by Carpenter, and before you know it, the Tigers have a 3-2 lead. It took Rocco until JUNE last year to figure out with the new rules, that stealing a base wasn't a venial sin. And that was mostly because Castro swiping bags was igniting the offense. There were teams that had more stolen bases than we even had attempts the first two months last year. Our hitting "approach" is horrible. But this is also a "POHLAD PROBLEM." We followed up a division winning season and the first playoff win in almost 20 years with an abysmal off season. The Tigers, Cleveland and Royals all made aggressive moves to improve. We cut payroll despite still getting $48 out of the $55 million for 2024 from Balley. Getting that TV money was not some big surprise. The Pohlad's had to know they were going to recoup most of that money. Yet they still cut payroll. We don't deserve this as Twins fans but the Pohlad's sure do as owners and Falvey and Levine do as the "yes men" who didn't push back and counsel otherwise. Instead we have washed up guys like Santana and Margot. We have veteran guys in our bullpen who are showing they are nothing more than journeymen while we send Alcala down and discuss sending Funderburk down when Duran and a host of others finally get healthy (because they have "options)." We decided we didn't really need any starting pitching reinforcements other than DeSclafani because we had Paddack and Varland. How long to paddack and Varland keep their rotation spots??? There is a lot of baseball yet to be played, and the Twins could still wake up and turn things around. But at this point they are being beaten in every facet of the game: Hitting, pitching, baserunning, fielding, managing, situational baseball, you name it. And there is nothing happening now or planned that would give Twins fans any hope it's going change either.

Great article. Good insights. His ceiling is high, but eventually you have to hit the ball. You are correct to have pointed out that his walk rate rate will continue to diminish the higher his level of play goes. Pitchers that make it to the major leagues have better command. He will certainly find himself in more 0-2 counts than he ever has before. When Joe Mauer used to fall behind 0-2 I was never worried. Mauer had elite bat to ball skills that led to a HOF career. E-Rod hits with more power and with that is a baked in higher swing and miss. But at some point, E-Rod is going to have to start hitting that "first pitch fastball." And he needs to be hitting some singles as well. The kid has power, he's going to hit his homers. He just needs to make contact more consistently. The upside is certainly there. And this is why the decision NOT to trade him for pitching was wise.

The guy on the current roster I'm least impressed with is Margot. When guys start getting healthy just DFA Margot and keep Austin Martin up. Larnach has actually looked better swinging the bat, albeit a very small sample size. If you were throwing darts at a dart board with Twins players on it, the worst guys to have hurt, and thus, hit with a dart, would be Lewis, Correa and Duran. (Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan as well). Now that I've jinxed Lopez and Ryan I hope I'm not going to become persona-no-grata on TD. Buxton is a constant source of frustration. The headline of the article "Why is Byron Buxton swinging and missing?" could just as easily have a post script "Because that's what he does!"

It IS going downhill fast. The only news that could push it lower than it already is would be something wrong with Pablo Lopez and an impending IL stint coming. Still, baseball is a LONG season. There is time for the Twins to right the ship. I keep hearing that Funderburk might get sent down once the bullpen returns to full health and I just don't understand it. He was one of their most impressive guys coming out of the pen last year and he is once again. I think Funderburk is a keeper.

After Ober's outing yesterday I've been dreading the announcement that he's got a tender elbow or a sore shoulder... :(