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TopGunn#22

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  1. TopGunn#22
    In the span of about a week the sports world lost three iconic athletes: Willie Mays, Jerry West and Bill Walton. It was a blessing to have been able to witness each of them in televised games while still in their prime.
  2. TopGunn#22
    I'm not very excited by any of the options mentioned. I'd be O.K. with Taylor Rogers but he costs more than our entire budget for the BP the rest of this season and next year. It's the reason why we traded him to the Padres in the first place...we didn't want to pay him. His cost kills any chance we bring him back. I'm happy going with Funderburk and Varland in the BP immediately and hopefully Stewart within a couple more weeks. I'd be happy to move Paddack to the pen and have Festa take his place as #5 SP. But if we do make some trades at or before the deadline I'm more interested in a solid SP like Luzardo than spare parts in the bullpen. We may very well trade Kepler. I think I'd rather see us do that than just let him walk at the end of the season. Maybe Kepler is involved in a trade for a SP or another bat. We'll see. I think adding Brooks Lee's bat to the lineup and hopefully getting Julien back and producing like he did last year would be enough for the offense. Why trade for Pete Alonso when Carlos Santana is out producing him so far. It probably won't hold up but I still can't see Alonso in a Twins uniform.
  3. TopGunn#22
    I say to heck with this talk about getting Brooks Lee up by or just after the All Star Game. Get him up NOW !! DFA Farmer and make Lee your full time 2B. Move Castro to full time LF (it's his strongest defensive position). If Max has to go on the IL get Wallner up at least for the time Max is on the IL. Brooks Lee can also play some SS when it's time to DH Correa once Julien makes it back to the big club. To me, it doesn't look like Wallner has figured much out. Nothing significant has changed. He still strikes out waaaay too much. But the dude has 17 HR's. He is who he is...a guy with tremendous power who whiffs a LOT. Unless they want to finally give Kiersey a chance just bring up the 2nd coming of Joey Gallo and hope he makes just a little more contact than Gallo. Might as well find out now because Max is gone at the deadline or after the season and Kirilloff looks like he'll never figure it out. Larnach is back to hitting groundballs to 1B 50% of the time and the Twins should at least promote E-Rod to St. Paul before calling him up 8/1 or 9/1. At this point, I'd rather just go with Funderburk and call up Varland to be a part of the pen than waste time with all the bullpen retreads the FO signed. They have all been disappointments. Okert has been passable but seemed like he pitched so scared his last couple outings missing time after time with his backdoor breaking ball. His constant nibbling put him in precarious positions to succeed. Thielbar should be traded or DFA'd within a week. The Twins have rallied to within 6.5 games of Cleveland but wasting AB's on guys like Farmer when Brooks Lee should be up isn't helping. I think Jocko nailed it when he said the roster moves in the next week should be VERY INTERESTING. Because it's time to make them.
  4. TopGunn#22
    I think Dman raises a VERY INTERESTING point. Could Cijntje throw RH out of the pen on Tuesday. Then throw LH out of the pen on Wednesday and come back on Thursday throwing RH? (and so on). That is beyond intriguing. Or, how about he's a starter as a RH pitcher and could give you an inning here and there out of the pen as a LH relief pitcher in the days between his next start as a RH? Starts game on Monday RH, throws an inning in relief on Wednesday LH, and then throws another inning in relief on Friday LH, before starting as a RHP again on Saturday. Kind of like Ohtani, where you get an elite hitter who is also a very good pitcher, you'd be getting 2 pitchers for the price of one. Could this actually be done? Think of the added flexibility it would give a manager. You could carry a 3rd catcher comfortably or another position player. If you had a Nelson Cruz/Ohtani level DH it would be invaluable.
  5. TopGunn#22
    There is no need for someone like Kjerstad when you already have E-Rod and Walker Jenkins in the pipeline. The Twins need to focus on getting better and more consistent talent in their starting rotation. That could be SWR if he continues to be effective, or David Festa, or someone like Jesus Luzardo. But trading Jax is not "helpful" to the team, especially when Jax is pitching like he's been. If he's going to get more expensive as he goes to arbitration it's because he's EARNING it. That's an acceptable problem to have. I'd be looking to move guys like Thielbar, Farmer and Margot for WHATEVER I can get, and be planning on promoting Brooks Lee sooner than later as well as the possible return of Julien and Wallner at some point. Personally, I'd LOVE to see Kiersey finally get a chance to to see what he's got. If Thielbar is traded or released in the very near future just promote Funderburk and get on with it. Funderburk was always going to be a better pitcher THIS season and certainly for the future. Why help solve Baltimore's bullpen issues (with this year's absence of Bautista) by gifting them with Jax and Varland just to get another LH hitting corner OF like Kjerstad? I'd rather sell high on Cole Sands right now if a package including him and Larnach or Kirilloff could be part of a deal for Luzardo.
  6. TopGunn#22
    I think SaberNerd hit the nail on the head when he said he'd rather have a really good bullpen arm than a #7 SP. And I don't understand the idea that it has to be an either/or decision. Johan Santana started out in the bullpen. Heck, Tommy Hall (The Blade) was a bullpen guy in 1969 and the Twins gave him a bunch of starts in 1970 and he was outstanding. He was traded to the Reds prior to the 1972 season for Wayne Granger as the Twins needed a true "closer" with Ron Perranoski's effectiveness falling off a table and Hall thrived as a bullpen guy with the reds for several years after that. Also, we don't need to trade for a LH bullpen arm once we DFA or trade Thielbar. We just need to promote Funderburk.
  7. TopGunn#22
    I liked the Lewis pick at the time and I still like it now. To me, he was the SS that I hoped we'd get in the Correa/Buxton draft. Now, seven years later, he's had a position change, in large part due to us having Correa. Of course, we need Lewis to stay healthy. But what I've finally been able to see of him is better than I had actually hoped he'd be when we first picked him. He's special.
  8. TopGunn#22
    Where is Matt Canterino in all these reports? Is he hurt AGAIN??
  9. TopGunn#22
    I agree with most of what you say Doc, but disagree on Thielbar. I made it clear this off-season that I thought he was too expensive (highest paid bullpen arm) too old/brittle (due for a minimum of 3 stints on the IL) and based on his slippage in 2023, just not good enough anymore. I wanted to package him in a deal and get something for the future. Now I think that's unlikely. Funderburk is the superior pitcher right now. I'd deal Thielbar if there were any takers and if there weren't, DFA him and call Funderburk back up. By the way, how is Canterino doing?? I haven't read anything about him in our minor league/prospect recaps. Is he hurt again??
  10. TopGunn#22
    It's pretty hard to defend the indefensible with the way the Twins are playing. The blame can be spread everywhere, because from ownership and their salary cutting mandates to a manager who lives by the spreadsheet but rarely displays an awareness or sense of the game taking place on the field in front of him to under-performing players galore this is a team that is losing fans for this season as each day passes. Even us hard-core baseball fans are finding this "product" difficult to watch.
  11. TopGunn#22
    I think it's possible to be both a "seller" and a "buyer" at the trade deadline. It takes a skilled FO to do it, but there are plenty of examples where it's been done. Is "OUR" FO skilled enough to pull it off? I don't really know. But I do know that after a FO assembles the talent/roster for a given season there is a "settling in" point where things begin to go off the rails. Players who were expected to perform at a certain level are either meeting, exceeding or falling short (some falling waaay short) of their expected level. This is when adjustments need to be made. All major league sports have some form of salary cap. Sometimes it's a hard cap like the NFL. In the NBA there are ways to exceed the cap with financial penalties levied if you do so at various levels. Baseball, while not having a specific salary cap doesn't mandate a salary floor either. But MLB teams that do exceed a certain salary "level" DO pay a tax. As Twins fans on TD we're always talking about what the Pohlad's "would" or "wouldn't" do based on whatever their self-imposed budget constraints are. This is ALWAYS tied to whatever TV revenue is expected. I've never heard any discussions on the T-Wolves or Wild sites I visit that revolve around what ownership can do with payroll based on what the TV contract provides. Remember, the T-Wolves and Wild season are done. They are now fully in local TV/Media LIMBO. When the Twins are finishing THIS season, the Wolves and Wild will be just beginning their 2024-2025 seasons. What will our local viewing options for all three be at that time? It's hard to see the Twins as a contender this season after being swept by the Yankees and shut out by the Pirates (however, did anyone else notice that just prior to our series with the Pirates they took 2 out of 3 from the Dodgers with dominant pitching performances in the two games they won?). The Twins are still in a period of determining what adjustments they need to make to their roster and whether they are even viable contenders, or just pretenders.
  12. TopGunn#22
    TD could have picked any number of teams to feature for an article like this and they picked Colorado. Honestly, there is not a single player on their roster who makes any sense for us or would be a good fit. We need SP. Colorado has none. We need a backup catcher to Jeffers and while Diaz wouldn't be a BAD option, you've got to find someone willing to take Vasquez. That ain't Colorado. We're all correct in thinking the guys we have now just need to play better. If they do start playing better and we get to the end of June/early July, that would be the time to see what SP they could add with a couple of years control remaining. And before they would consider that, I think Festa needs to replace Paddack in the rotation. May as well see what Festa can do NOW before making a deal.
  13. TopGunn#22
    Doc, when you say Emma...do you mean E-Rod?? :>) I whole heartedly agree with the Cavaco cognitive dissonance. It's one thing if a known, highly thought of prospect, suddenly builds up steam as the draft approaches. It's quite different when a kid kind of "comes out of nowhere." Dax Whitney seems like a kid teams were on, but has now shown a burst in progression. Add to that Whitney's projectability and he could go higher than anticipated. High School pitchers are always kind of a Russian Roulette scenario but at least they come to you with a clean slate with not being overused by a college coach. I'm not as concerned about Waldschmidt's arm as others. We're not talking Carlos May or Matty Alou arm strength. If the speed allows for good range and the bat plays to projection he would be a solid prospect. I saw one mock draft where we selected Tyler White from LSU. Defensively, he's a problem. He's LSU's 3B but he may not stick there. He may be a 1B/DH type like Sabato. Sabato has been a major disappointment to me. White, has been LSU's BEST hitter for practically the entire time he's been there. He was better than Dylan Crews. He was the guy that always came up with clutch hits for LSU (kind of like Larnach did for Oregon State in their Championship season). The appears to be real (even though Sabato's seemed as well). I wonder what our reactions would be on TD if he ended up being our first pick overall?
  14. TopGunn#22
    Yup. This is the version of Buxton we will be saddled with for the rest of this contract. The sooner the Twins can move forward with E-Rod, Jenkins or even Keirsey in CF the better off the Twins will be as a whole. If there was some way to buy him out of this contract, cut the cord and just move on I would be overjoyed. He is a very difficult player to watch now because the expectation for "WOW" is always there, but he consistently fails to deliver.
  15. TopGunn#22
    And wouldn't you know it...Just after wyatt wrote this Luzardo gets hammered giving up 9 earned runs in a short start vs. Tampa Bay and Montas goes 6 no-hit innings for the Reds !! Baseball is just so unpredictable. I still think Luzardo would be an excellent target. It seems to me that things are getting downright toxic in Miami. Nobody is having fun down there. The Marlins seem to have no focus. If anything, Luzardo's latest outing may have lowered his price somewhat. It's clear in watching the Twins play the Yankees that we don't have the pitching to compete and our offense just disappeared in the 5 games we've played them so far this year. Better starting pitching is the only thing that could save the Twins in these post season playoff games. Paddack should be moved to the bullpen, opening up at least one rotation spot. It will be interesting to see how badly the Pohlad's want to return to the post season or if they pack it in at the deadline. Cleveland isn't showing any signs of slowing down.
  16. TopGunn#22
    Fun read to see what "possible deals" could be considered in the not too distant future.
  17. TopGunn#22
    Luzardo is JUST what the Twins need. An All Star caliber SP who is LEFT-HANDED. Getting him wouldn't be cheap but it would be worth it to see what the price of poker is. Teams that PITCH are always in ball games. Lopez, Luzardo and Ryan as a 1-2-3 in a future 7 or 5 game series would be exciting. I'd like to see the Twins center a trade around Wallner or Julien. Look, Brooks Lee is NOT the heir-apparent to be our UTILITY MAN ! He's being looked at a STARTER at a specific position. It doesn't hurt that Lee would have the ability to play 2B, SS or even 3B. But when he finally makes it to the majors, he's going to be a starter at a specific position. Correa is the SS for at least 5 more years. Lewis will be the fixture at 3B as well. That leaves 2B. One of Lee or Julien is expendable for an All Star level pitcher. Between Kirilloff, Larnach and Wallner there is at least one corner OF type who will be by-passed by E-Rod or Jenkins (or Gabe Gonzalez for that matter). Having 2 and a half years of control over Luzardo is what makes this very intriguing. The Twins would have Lopez-Ryan-Luzardo for the rest of this season, 2025 and 2026. If all three are pitching at an All Star level throughout that time the trade would have paid off in spades. I would also love to find a way to off-load Vasquez in this deal as well. Even if we agree to absorb a portion of his $10 million salary as well. The Marlins have been interested in him in the past and they have the absolute WORST catching situation in major league baseball. They may even take Vasquez WITHOUT any salary help they are so desperate for an actual major league catcher. The problem with this though is that nobody at St. Paul has stepped up to make this possible, so including Vasquez is unlikely. How about Julien and Wallner for Luzardo? Would Julien and Wallner merit a little something extra thrown in by Miami?
  18. TopGunn#22
    Doc Gast, thanks for listing out what a possible trade could be. I would not make the trade as displayed either. But I wonder what Julien's "value" is right now? After last season, I would have guessed it would be higher than his 34.0 or so. Has it slipped since his rough start to this season? At one time, you could almost envision a Julien for Mason Miller deal straight up. Not so sure that would be true now with one heading to an All Star selection and the other headed to St. Paul to "find his stroke."
  19. TopGunn#22
    It always comes down to cost. I will say this...Miller has a power arm that few in baseball can match. He's not some "one hit wonder" like Javier Lopez was. He's already pitched 26 innings this year, so he's going to blow past that 52 and 2/3 innings high he set last year. He's also got 52 K's in 26 innings. FIFTY TWO !! That's 2 K's per inning. Again, the stuff is incredible. So what would it REALLY cost? Kirilloff or Larnach aren't getting this deal done. Maybe one of them could be a throw in but certainly not a centerpiece. I don't go to Baseball Trade Values anymore because I can't see paying for a site I would visit around the Winter Meetings and MLB Trade Deadline all year long. But this is an example where a site like that could come in handy. Would Eddy Julien and Kirilloff/Larnach get it done? Would Emmanuel Rodriguez straight up get it done? Or Brooks Lee? Mason Miller is the real deal and as a rookie, he'd be a Twin for several years. With the depth the Twins have in their system, a deal could be done. At some point there will be a crossroads with Julien/Lee. At some point, you may not be able to get enough AB's for Jenkins/E-Rod/Gonzalez/Wallner. The Twins already have issues with Kirilloff/Larnach/Wallner. With position players you run into log-jams like this. With a pitcher, you don't. We could survive a trade of Julien for example with a talent like Brooks Lee, or E-Rod with a Jenkins or Gonzalez (or a Winokour). Would Jose Miranda be in the mix? Mason Miller would have an immediate positive impact. So what would the deal be? Julien & Wallner? Julien & Kirilloff? Julien & Gonzalez? I'd do any one of those three to get an arm like Mason Miller. And consider this: Miller wouldn't HAVE to remain a closer. He could be eased into the starting rotation. Name me 5 guys that have a BETTER arm with better STUFF than this kid. We've had all sorts of discussions about possibly moving Duran back into a starting role. Why not Mason Miller? I write this more as a counterpoint than as an ironclad endorsement of making a trade. I wouldn't just discount this idea with zero consideration. Mason Miller is a heck of a talent. What would be the cost to make a trade?
  20. TopGunn#22
    MARGOT !! But there are still some moves to be made within the next 2-4 weeks. Time to cut out some dead timber and start growing some new trees.
  21. TopGunn#22
    There is no other way to describe the roster decisions of Vasquez, Margot and Farmer as nothing but a disaster. Especially when the FO cut $30 million from the payroll and decided to keep these guys. Santana has provided decent defense at 1B (the dropped throw from Duran considered) and some recent power, but I would really rather be looking at a Kirilloff/Miranda platoon and have pocketed the Santana money as well. The Twins roster is still a work in progress. I'd love to find out if Miami is still desperate for a competent major league catcher who can handle a pitching staff but can't hit his weight. Nobody will want Margot and as Riverbrian pointed out, Farmer is handcuffed to Julien. If Julien ever starts hitting, and I can't imagine Julien continuing to look this bad, meaning a regression to his mean should be coming sometime, Famer's time should be coming to an end. It's like our bullpen. When it's all said and done, most of the veteran additions we made will probably pitch themselves off the roster and a guy like Varland may find his way back up to the Twins firmly entrenched in a bullpen role. Guys like Stewart, Funderburk and Acalala will probably also fill back in as replacements for these failing bullpen vets. The failed vet bullpen signings aren't as bad as the Vasquez, Margot, Farmer, Santana money (especially Vasquez at $10 million) but I'm just pointing out the obvious by "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" these moves. Hindsight is ALWAYS an eagle-eyed 20/10.
  22. TopGunn#22
    Much of this was already touched on in the Margot article and it certainly calls into question the off season plan and vision. On the one hand, we needed to fill 2 rotation spots and opted to fill them from within, that prior to SWR's success had not exactly had a great track record. We wisely moved on from guys like Michael Taylor and Donovan Solano who had a year not likely to be repeated in 2024. However, there were a LOT of us on TD who questioned the need to bring Farmer back at $6+ million per year when we were being told that every penny counted in the doom and gloom revenue projection of 2024. Especially with Castro emerging and Brooks Lee on the not too distant horizon. Even with the end of ST injury to Lee it's easy to see that bringing Farmer back was a mistake. The Twins are paying Correa (worth it) a LOT. They are paying Buxton (questionable) a lot (at least by Twins standards). They are paying Pablo (worth it, despite the early season struggles) and Vasquez (NOT worth it). Look at this roster and see how many guys are making the minimum or close to it. It's easy to second guess the FO on many of these decisions but it's also "gut punch obvious" that the FO DESERVES the criticism. It is VERY MUCH like the Twins to clutch with a death-grip intensity, players they have OVER-invested in, much like Joey Gallo last year, to somehow get their money's worth from those dollars while to the fans the carcass of a Gallo, or in this case Farmer and Margot, gets smellier and smellier as the weather gets warmer.
  23. TopGunn#22
    Of course the Poland's could afford to add Vald Jr. He's not the bat he was, but maybe a change of scenery and a different approach gets him back to being one of the most feared RH hitters in baseball. This is the problem with being a Twins fan...We're not allowed to DREAM. Of course the Pohlad's would never consider this. But the frenzy some guys come out with criticizing this article is both sad and laughable. We come to this site to just "talk baseball." This is the essence of "Talking BASEBALL!!" Everything doesn't have to be logical. Sometimes it can be fun. Baseball Trade Values has Vlad Jr.'s "Value" at only 8.4. That's a reflection of his recent disappointing production. He could actually be had for a lot less than people would expect. Toronto is reeling this season. Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette are NOT living up to expectations. Dalton Varsho hasn't since he came over in the trade with the D-Backs. I don't visit Baseball Trade Values much anymore because I refuse to pay for what once was free. But we should be having fun discussing what it would take to get Vlad and how he could possibly add some juice to our lineup.
  24. TopGunn#22
    I don't think it's "hate" when people point out reasons why Max Kepler may not be a Twin next year, or even past this year's trade deadline, it's LOGIC. Look, Max is one of my favorite Twins but the ECONOMICS of this make it pretty obvious that his days are numbered. That's how the Pohlad's run this franchise. Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner and E-Rod. Those are all the reasons why Max will probably be replacing Jason Heyward in RF for the Dodgers at some point this year or next. It doesn't matter that Max is a better player than any of those guys listed. It's that Max will price himself out of the Pohlad's acceptable cost parameters and each of those other guys will fall within their expected cost parameters. Ownership and the FO is expecting one of those listed guys to "pay off." "It is the Twins way..."
  25. TopGunn#22
    A lot of this depends on health. If guys get hurt, opportunities present themselves. However, "performance" should also be a consideration. The Twins have demonstrated in the past that they are VERY averse to making snap decisions based on "performance." Witness...Gallo, Shoemaker, Sano, et al. (the list is quite long). The Twins will stick with a poor performing player well past their "best used by" date. Margot should be gone. Farmer is doing nothing to compel me to WANT to stick with him. That's $10 million of "mistakes." If Julien continues to take called 3rd strikes and Lee gets hot right out of the gate at St. Paul there should be pressure to give Julien a chance to find his confidence and stroke down in St. Paul. It doesn't mean Julien won't make it back up. E-Rod is a VERY interesting case. Keirsey is already performing well in St. Paul, and he has for the last 2 seasons. But it's also true that guys can make the jump straight from AA. SWR is giving the Twins a tremendous lift to date. If he maintains, he's not coming out of the rotation. But if Paddack falters, that could open the door for Festa. I think unless Louis Varland gets his act together at St. Paul he's pitching himself into a future bullpen role on the big club. Raya and Severino are farther away than projected. I can't see Raya up until mid-late 2025 until he's proven he can hit 80-90 pitches. That's as a STARTER. If the Twins want to promote him to shore up the bullpen in a stretch run and for the playoffs he could get broken in slowly in a Johan Santana type of way.
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