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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. While $6.2 million might seem high for the penurious Pohlad's, it would be quite reasonable for over half of the teams in MLB. As I've said before, I would be reluctant to trade Willi, but if he's part of a deal that brings me back a "Catcher of the Future" like Teel or Rushing, I make that trade and sign someone like Jose Iglesias for $1.5 million (Spotrac estimation) to be my backup at SS/2B/3B--great glove and a hitter that makes contact. Keirsey becomes my 4th OF. I improve the IF and OF defense with those two and with a Teel or Rushing on the major league roster out of spring training, I can make a trade involving either Jeffers or Vasquez. If I trade Jeffers, I get a pretty nice return, but I'm still stuck with Vasquez and his $10 million dollar salary for 2025, and that's a no-go for the rest of the roster construction. I find a way to deal Vasquez, even if it's for virtually nothing just to move that $10 million and roll with Jeffers & Teel/Rushing. And as bad as Miami's catching position is, I think Vasquez has value to them and if you included Julien and Marco Raya and took back Sandy Alcantara and his $17 million dollar 2025 contract, you'd have a deal and one heck of a starting rotation.
  2. Mateo would be an upgrade defensively at SS & 2B when compared to Castro but at $3.3 million, if an upgrade defensively is what you're looking for, why not just sign Jose Iglesias for $1.5 million? And Iglesias, even though he has no power, has very good bat to ball skills. Mateo's base stealing talent would also be wasted with Rocco as well. Rocco's teams just don't consider stealing bases important, even with the recent rules changes. Soto wouldn't be a bad arm to take a chance on. But this Twins FO doesn't pay $4.5 million for relief pitchers. Caleb Ferguson is a competent LH who spotrac says could be signed for $1.5 million. THAT's more in line with the ceiling our FO would go to sign a RP. I would really NOT rather trade Willi Castro. But if he's needed in a deal to help bring in a young catcher like Rushing or Teel I would do that and sign Iglesias or give Luke Keaschall a chance. I'd prefer to have Keaschall spend one more season a AA and AAA and have Iglesias as a one-year bridge. So while I appreciate the suggested Orioles Matthew, once you pointed out what the cost would be, I think there are better options for a hyper-cost-conscious team like the Twins.
  3. tony&rodney, do you have to be a Caretaker to get your roster plan posted? Mine was called "Shake Things Up" but I'm not seeing anything listed. Has yours been posted? I'd like to see how your trade differed with mine so I could compare. Even if you gave a little more than I did, I'd be on board with your Alcantara trade as well. I think a rotation of Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Festa would be the best the Twins would have in a long time. To have that rotation in place for 2025, 2026 & 2027 before Alcantara's and Lopez's deals come to an end would be sound payroll strategy. My plan had Luzardo as the target, but some of the pushback on Luzardo is good reasoning and with Alcantara's $17 million dollar 2025 salary vs Luzardo's $8.6 million, I think you could get Miami to take the entire $10 million of Vasquez if you attached the proper prospect capital to the deal. Alcantara is clearly the better pitcher and has only had the one Tommy John in his history which he appears on track to recover from in time for spring training. If you could somehow get Teel or Rushing without having to give up Duran it would be even better. I just don't see a deal without Duran getting either of those guys with the glaring need for a closer both in L.A. and Boston.
  4. It certainly does look like the "pitching pipeline" is flowing. And as a result, with some gaping holes in the Twins current roster, some of that pipeline should be used to get that "Catcher of the Future", a 1B, a RH hitting OF with some pop etc... Paddack is an excellent trade chip. I'm not sure where BBTV has his value pegged but at $7.5 million with his past success and now entering his 2nd season after Tommy John surgery, he's probably JUST what the Red Sox, Orioles, Dodgers etc...would be interested in. Especially if a decent prospect was added in a deal, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect the acquiring team to pick up all $7.5 million. The Red Sox and Orioles only have about 2 SP's penciled in for their rotation at this time. If the Twins are aggressive and dangle Paddack, SWR, and some other minor league arms they could make a bid for a Teel or a Westburg. The Orioles especially are overflowing with prospects and can't possibly find playing time for everyone. And they are desperate for arms. Somebody is going to make a trade with them and acquire a good young player. It may as well be the Twins. I'm still intrigued at what Jax could become as a SP, especially after seeing what Seth Lugo and Reynaldo Lopez accomplished last year. However, if Duran is made available in a trade (possibly to the Dodgers in a deal to bring back MLB ready catching prospect Dalton Rushing) then Jax becomes the closer and any experiment with rotation consideration ends. SWR, Festa, Matthews, Morris, Lewis, Raya, Adams, Nowlin. These 8 are already in the major leagues or at AAA in St. Paul. Add Dobnak as a perennial St. Paul arm until his contract ends and you've got an abundance of arms. Add to that the depth we have in the lower minors and the time is right to trade a couple of these guys to improve the major league roster. The Twins aren't going to want to have THREE 2nd year SP's in their 2025 rotation (SWR, Festa, Matthews). I'd trade SWR while his value is highest. I'd probably hang onto Festa (who I think is SP #5 in 2025) and Matthews and Morris. But the other arms and some in the lower minors I'd be exploring potential deals to improve the big league club. We tend to load up on pitchers in the draft after we select a couple hitters. We can trade from this surplus and keep adding to it. One trade I'd be interested in pursuing would be with the Marlins. Their catching situation is horrible. I offer Vasquez, Julien and Gabe Gonzalez for former Cy Young winner coming back from Tommy John surgery, Sandy Alcantara. He looks to be ready to start the season and he would probably emerge as our #1 SP. In 2022, he signed a 5 year, $56 million dollar contract with the Marlins. He's set to earn $17 million in 2025, so with all the young arms Miami has and their huge need at catcher they may be willing to move his $17 million dollar salary and take on all $10 million of Vasquez while adding a couple young bats. Alcantara has a club option in 2027 and then is set to be a FA in 2028. That's 3 years the Twins would have control of his age 29, 30 and 31 year old seasons. If I move Vasquez and Paddack in separate deals that $17.5 million makes the Alcantara acquisition a wash. Include Willi Castro $6.3 million and/or Jhoan Duran ($3.70) in a deal to get a Rushing or Teel at league minimum and the Twins are money ahead. The end result is that you could have a rotation of Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Festa for the next 3 years with a "Catcher of the Future" and Griffin Jax closing. And somewhere in that 3 year window you would be adding E-Rod and Walker Jenkins to the lineup. If I'm a buyer considering purchasing the Twins, I'm VERY HAPPY with that future outlook. And that should make the greedy Pohlad family very happy as well. There is a lot of potential for the Twins FO to make lemonade out of lemons this off season. And I believe the new look front office is auditioning for their jobs with new ownership on the horizon. A little here and a little there on the fringes isn't going to change much and put the Twins back on the path of division dominance and playoff success. It will take a detailed plan, with several contingencies should a move or two fall through. But the potential is there to make effective and long term adjustments.
  5. Cody Christie has just posted an article about two trade scenarios to acquire Jesus Luzardo from the Marlins. Trade #1 Was Royce Lewis for Luzardo, a catching prospect named Joe Mack and an IF prospect named Gage Miller. While I would love to add Jesus Luzardo to our rotation, I don't know enough about Mack and Miller to part with Royce Lewis. Trade #2 was Larnach for Luzardo even up. In my Twins off season plan that I THINK I posted (even though I am not a Premium Member) I had proposed a trade of Larnach, Vasquez and Top Ten OF prospect Gabe Gonzalez for Luzardo. I mention this because Miami's catchers had the following OPS in 2024: Fortes .577 and Pereda at .481. Miami has, without a doubt, the WORST catching situation in MLB. They have had interest in Vasquez and they NEED him. They have a young staff who could benefit from having a vet like Vasquez. And in this trade I expected the Marlins would pay all $10 million for Vasquez.
  6. I think 2025 is a good opportunity to shake things up. I'm willing to trade to not only move a significant amount of payroll off the team, but to include some highly ranked minor league pieces to entice other teams with deeper pockets to accept ALL the salary we're sending out. TRADE: Duran, Castro and Paddack along with $3.5 million in International Pool money to the Dodgers for catcher Dalton Rushing and oft injured RHP Dustin May. TRADE: Vasquez, Larnach and Top Ten OF prospect Gabe Gonzalez to Marlins for LH SP Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo is signed for 2025 at $8.6 million but we would have him for two more years at arbitration salaries. TRADE: SWR, Alcala and Marco Raya to Baltimore for 3B/1B Jordan Westburg. SIGN: Tyler O'Neill 2-years $14 million per. Amed Rosario IF/OF 1 year $2 million and IF Jose Iglesias 1 year $1.5 million. I'm essentially removing about $30 million in salary and adding about the same back, just reallocating it across the roster. The team beefs up it's already formidable rotation without moving Jax. Jax becomes the primary closer with Duran moving on to the Dodgers. He can handle it. He's more consistent. We add a Gold Glove caliber, 30 HR thumper in LF who hits RH. This solidifies the OF of Buxton, O'Neill and Wallner with Keirsey as the 4th OF until E-Rod and Walker Jenkins are ready. Royce Lewis and Jordan Westburg become the Twins corner infielders for a decade. It doesn't matter to me which position each plays. The Twins will figure this out. We also add a couple of veteran glove men who at the plate make consistent contact and have some speed. Each of Rosario and Iglesias are signed for one year while guys like Keaschall and Eeles and Helman prove they are ready or not. Each also gives us a veteran at SS/2B/3B to support Westburg, Correa and Brooks Lee. Rushing will back up Jeffers but also get some time at DH and maybe even 1B to get him more AB's. All reports say Rushing's bat is ready for MLB. Let's get him AB's. IF...and it's a big if, the trades make sense and they open up a FA signing like O'Neill, the Twins are primed to be competitive with a lineup and rotation like that, and a BP that could be pretty darn good, all while waiting for the next wave of hitters (E-Rod, Walker Jenkins, Keaschall) and pitchers (Matthews, Morris, Soto) to make their way to the big leagues. It should also help the Pohlad family maximize their selling price and leave the new ownership group with a sense they made a good purchase. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Jose Mirands ($0.80M) 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($2.10M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Edouard Julien ($0.80M) 4th OF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) Utility: Willi Castro ($6.20M) Utility: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M) Backup C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Chris Paddack ($7.50M) SP5: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($3.70M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.50M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Justin Topa ($1.30M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 0.99% over budget
  7. I think 2025 is a good opportunity to shake things up. I'm willing to trade to not only move a significant amount of payroll off the team, but to include some highly ranked minor league pieces to entice other teams with deeper pockets to accept ALL the salary we're sending out. TRADE: Duran, Castro and Paddack along with $3.5 million in International Pool money to the Dodgers for catcher Dalton Rushing and oft injured RHP Dustin May. TRADE: Vasquez, Larnach and Top Ten OF prospect Gabe Gonzalez to Marlins for LH SP Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo is signed for 2025 at $8.6 million but we would have him for two more years at arbitration salaries. TRADE: SWR, Alcala and Marco Raya to Baltimore for 3B/1B Jordan Westburg. SIGN: Tyler O'Neill 2-years $14 million per. Amed Rosario IF/OF 1 year $2 million and IF Jose Iglesias 1 year $1.5 million. I'm essentially removing about $30 million in salary and adding about the same back, just reallocating it across the roster. The team beefs up it's already formidable rotation without moving Jax. Jax becomes the primary closer with Duran moving on to the Dodgers. He can handle it. He's more consistent. We add a Gold Glove caliber, 30 HR thumper in LF who hits RH. This solidifies the OF of Buxton, O'Neill and Wallner with Keirsey as the 4th OF until E-Rod and Walker Jenkins are ready. Royce Lewis and Jordan Westburg become the Twins corner infielders for a decade. It doesn't matter to me which position each plays. The Twins will figure this out. We also add a couple of veteran glove men who at the plate make consistent contact and have some speed. Each of Rosario and Iglesias are signed for one year while guys like Keaschall and Eeles and Helman prove they are ready or not. Each also gives us a veteran at SS/2B/3B to support Westburg, Correa and Brooks Lee. Rushing will back up Jeffers but also get some time at DH and maybe even 1B to get him more AB's. All reports say Rushing's bat is ready for MLB. Let's get him AB's. IF...and it's a big if, the trades make sense and they open up a FA signing like O'Neill, the Twins are primed to be competitive with a lineup and rotation like that, and a BP that could be pretty darn good, all while waiting for the next wave of hitters (E-Rod, Walker Jenkins, Keaschall) and pitchers (Matthews, Morris, Soto) to make their way to the big leagues. It should also help the Pohlad family maximize their selling price and leave the new ownership group with a sense they made a good purchase. C: Ryan Jeffers ($4.70M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($2.30M) 2B: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) 3B: Jordan Westburg ($0.80M) SS: Carlos Correa ($36.00M) LF: Tyler O'Neill ($14.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.80M) 4th OF: DaShawn Keirsey ($0.80M) Utility: Amed Rosario ($2.00M) Utility: Jose Iglesias ($1.5M) Backup C: Dalton Rushing ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($3.80M) SP3: Bailey Ober ($4.30M) SP4: Jesus Luzardo ($8.60M) SP5: David Festa ($0.80M) RP: Caleb Ferguson ($1.5M) RP: Brock Stewart ($0.80M) RP: Griffin Jax ($2.60M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Dustin May ($2.1M) RP: Louie Varland ($0.80M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) NA: Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 0.38% under budget
  8. I don't disagree at all Nick, there is tremendous potential for this Twins BP, especially if they brought in a Caleb Ferguson ($1.8 million projected on Spotrac) or a similarly priced LH with similar effectiveness (like CoasterProductions mentioned with Garrett Cleavinger of the Rays). And some of those arms you mentioned still in the minors (while also NOT mentioning Matt Canterino) could potentially work out quite well. But there are a LOT of questions. Is now the BEST time to trade Duran? Especially if he can help bring back a Catcher of the Future--Rushing?. If Griffin Jax is given a shot at the rotation and the Twins hit the Jackpot with him, they still need someone to fill his role. Stewart has the stuff as would someone like Canterino, but you can't count on them health-wise. There is a lot of potential for the Twins to have a very good BP. There is also a LOT of volatility there as well. Some guys may work out. Some guys may not make it out of spring training (Stewart/Canterino) and others are a coin flip how good they could be (Varland, Funderburk, Moran, Topa). I'd feel better if the Twins made an early move for a Ferguson or Cleavinger just to help stabilize the situation.
  9. I liked the plan in general and appreciate the time and effort that it took to pull it together. I'm not so keen on taking on Campusano or Wandy-Rod. I'm more of the opinion it's time to use some of the depth we have in the minors to make a few trades. The point of arms piling up in St. Paul is a good one. Move a few in a Vasquez or Paddack deal to get the trade partner to accept the entire salary of each. With Vasquez and Paddack it isn't really what we get back, it's trimming the $17.5 million to be able to invest it elsewhere on the roster. I agree with tony&rodney in his consistent stance of needing to get better defensively and more athletic. Amed Rosario is a good example. He's a 29 y/o vet who can play SS/2B as well as OF. He doesn't hit with a lot of power but he makes contact consistently. He can run and steal you some bases. At $2 million he could have a place on our roster. For a cheaper than Tyler O'Neill $14-$15 million dollar contract for a RH bat in the corner OF Tommy Pham and Adam Duval make sense at about $2-$3 million per year. Spotrac has Duval at $1.8 million. I'd still like to swing for the fences in a deal for a young catcher. Rushing or Teel. Without using BBTV it's even harder to come up with what might be considered a reasonable trade offer but I'll try to do that when I take a swing at the roster plan.
  10. I don't think Moran is much of a risk. I can't imagine anyone adding him with the "hope" that he will be ready for spring training. I think teams want more certainty. I'm with DJL44, I'm really more interested in who the Twins might have an interest in now that all the names are out there. I'm not knowledgeable enough to know who would be someone to go after. Maybe TD will have a quick follow up with a list of 5 players who could be interesting targets. If there are any interesting catchers I would think that's a no-brainer. Or possibly a 1B.
  11. This kid's size, athleticism and power has always intrigued me. And while I'm very impressed that at 6:6 we played him at SS and CF most of the time, I think this season he should move around a little bit. I'd like to see him play all three OF positions and maybe 3B/1B in the infield. He just isn't going to be a SS or middle infielder. Why not get him comfortable at a position he will eventually end up at. And I would spend extra time working with him on pitch spin recognition. He's bright and physically gifted. He will start improving. It's only a matter of how rapidly or slowly he shows that improvement. I'm glad he's up to #7 for a ranking because that insures us that we will get regular reports how he's doing on TD. Yes! That 2023 draft could end up being one of the Twins best in the franchise's history.
  12. I agree Blyleven2011, and I also agree with those who pointed out how difficult it would be for the Twins to actually sign Sasaki...endorsement money, front office who could be gone before the 2026 season, manager who could be gone etc... That said, I'd certainly want to check in. And if it's obvious he wouldn't come to Minnesota, I can make a deal with the Dodgers for Rushing or the Red Sox for Teel and I throw in $3 million or so of International Pool money to clinch the deal. That International Pool money could have a very large impact on getting a deal done. If the Dodgers could get Sasaki at the bargain price he would be, that would alleviate a lot of stress regarding their brittle, oft-injured starting rotation and allow them to be even MORE aggressive in signing Juan Soto. Let's say the Twins could make that deal without having to offer Jhoan Duran. SWR, Castro, Marco Raya and $3.5 million of International Pool money for Dalton Rushing and Dustin May. May missed the entire 2024 season after a couple injuries. He will pitch in 2025 but then has the right to be a free agent. Rather than have the Dodgers give up Vesia, a needed left hander in their bullpen, the Twins can take a flyer on May who has great stuff but can't seem to remain healthy. He's Matt Canterino with better control and 192 innings in the big leagues under his belt. The crown jewel of the deal is Rushing. May is a high reward lottery ticket. The Twins could talk a 2 year extension if they like the medical reports and someone goes to watch him throw. Maybe this wouldn't interest the Dodgers at all. But the chance to add Sasaki to their rotation with the infusion of the International Pool money as well as SWR and a young arm to replace May as well as an All Star Utility Player (someone Dave Roberts would LOVE to have) may just be enough. The Dodgers are set a catcher with Will Smith and have 2 other fine catching prospects in the system. I think they go for it. As most here on TD agree, the crucial deal to be made this year is to get a catching prospect like Rushing or Teel who is ready for the major leagues in 2025. That opens up the possibility to move a catcher and reshuffle the roster a bit. I don't do BBTV anymore, so I'd need someone to run this deal and see if it's viable. If not, what would be?
  13. Big Dog, that was my first impression as well when reading the Baseball Reference comps for Larry Hisle. I appreciate you "bringing the receipts" on those fallacious comps !! Hisle was a 4-tool player. He could hit, hit with power, run and catch the ball. He didn't throw very well, but that's why he spent most of his time in LF. By the time he moved to the Brewers, he split time between LF and DH. After that wonderful 1977 season, the onslaught of free agency really nailed the Twins losing both Lyman Bostock to the Angels and Hisle to the Brewers. Compounding that was Calvin Griffith's ill-advised comments in Waseca that forced him to trade Rod Carew to the Angels after the 1978 season. BAM! Just like that Carew, Bostock and Hisle were GONE ! Somehow, the Twins were respectable in 1979 but then came the lean years of 1980-1983. By 1984 they were putting things back together with a true youth movement, that eventually led to 2 World Series Championships after Calvin finally sold the Twins to the Pohlad family. And now, once again, we Twins fans stand vigil, waiting for another sale of the team, hoping that whoever the new owners are, that they would be able to keep the Larry Hisle's and Lyman Bostock's that will eventually emerge as the next wave of Twins stars.
  14. While I'm just as anxious as everybody to clear as much salary as possible (Dobnak included) to be able to at least make a couple moves this off season, I think with $7.5 million in international signing money the Twins are in a strong position to actually sign Sasaki. The Twins FO really needs to determine from Sasaki if they have a realistic chance. If they do, they need to pursue this. When is there going to be a chance to add a 23 year old pitcher with his stuff and command at a price like this? If they are able to sign Sasaki he will be an incredible asset who either shines in the Twins rotation for years, or can be traded away for a king's ransom after a season or two. Either way, he would be an incredible asset. Now, if Sasaki's representation tells the Twins he has no intention of playing in Minnesota, then that's a different story and I would strongly consider a trade with the Padres, Dodgers or Cubs to clear some very bad salary decisions. But until the chance at Sasaki is determined hopeless, I'm going after this kid with a vengeance. One other team that that wasn't mentioned by Brandon that has had interest in Vasquez in the past and who has probably the worst catching situation in all of MLB is the Marlins. When your present catching situation is as bad as Miami's is, and if you can take back some salary so it's more of an equal salary dump (Alcantara, Luzardo), Miami could be an excellent trade partner. Especially if the Twins were willing to part with one top 10 prospect like Gabe Gonzalez or Marco Raya and maybe a player like Larnach, there's a chance the Marlins would part with an Alcantara or Luzardo and also take on all $10 million of Vasquez. But none of this is even a consideration until a trade is made to get a young catcher who is on the verge of making his big league debut. We've speculated on Rushing (Dodgers) Teel (Red Sox) and Quero (Brewers). Any of these guys would be a prize worth going after. And if Sasaki is clear that he has no interest in the Twins, some international Pool money could be used very strategically.
  15. I also like the alternatives that JD-Twins proposed. There are certainly things the Twins COULD and SHOULD be considering. Some things (usning all our International Money to sign Sasaki) may be a long shot and would be up to the players preference. Others, like signing O'Neill or being aggressive on a trade for Alcantara or Luzardo is something the Twins FO could and probably should commit to.
  16. I think it's a pretty good plan. Certainly within reason. But of course, I have a couple of things I would do differently. First, regarding the trade with the Dodgers. The Dodgers are my 2nd favorite team behind the Twins, so I think I'm qualified to share my thoughts on this trade. The Dodgers just won the World Series and they did it with their closer the last 3 years, Evan Phillips, left OFF the World Series roster. The Dodgers have a HUGE need for a closer and are probably very interested in getting a productive Utility Player like Castro to move on from the Chris Taylor types on their bench. That trade in my plan is a go!! I trade SWR and Jorge Alcala to to the Orioles for Jordan Westburg. I'm not sure what BBTV would have for a deal like that, but the Orioles rotation is in a shambles even if they bring Burnes back and even with their closer returning from TJ surgery they could use a depth arm like Alcala. The Orioles are over flowing with prospects and don't have enough open spots to play them all. If a top 10 prospect like #8 outfielder Gabe Gonzalez or Marco Raya needed to be included, I'd do it. They may even be interested in someone like Paddack at the price. I take ALL $7.5 million of my International Signing Budget and make a STRONG bid for Roki Sasaki. Here, the Twins are swapping out Paddack's $7.5 million to add a 23 year old fire baller who hits 100 mph and has the requisite breaking stuff to be a very good SP. Finally, I trade Vasquez, Larnach and Marco Raya/Gabe Gonzalez to the Marlins for either Sandy Alcantara ($10 million) or Jesus Luzardo ($6 million). By including Larnach and Raya, the Marlins make the trade by accepting all $10 million of Vasquez's salary. If the pitcher coming back is Alcantara, it's practically a wash salary wise. I sign Tyler O'Neill (30 y/o) as a FA for 2-years, $28 million. I sign Caleb Ferguson (28 y/o) for 1 yr. $1.50 million. I sign Jose Iglesias SS/2B/3B for 1 yr. 1.7 million. Here's my team and it's salary structure: LINEUP: $74.28 Million C Jeffers $4.7 1B Royce Lewis $2.3 2B B. Lee $0.76 3B Jordan Westburg $0.76 SS Correa $36 LF O'Neill $14 CF Buxton $15 RF M. Wallner $0.76 DH Miranda $0.76/Rushing BENCH: $3.98 Million Iglesias 2B/SS/3B $1.7 D. Keirsey $0.76 D. Rushing $0.76 A. Martin $0.76 STARTING ROTATION: $45.1 (averaging the difference of Alcantara/Luzardo at $8 million). P. Lopez $21.5 (Alcantara $10 or J. Luzardo $6) J. Ryan $3.8 B. Ober $4.3 R. Sasaki $7.5 (Festa $0.76) BULLPEN: $10.33 Jax $2.6 C. Ferguson $1.5 Vesia $1.9 Sands $0.76 Topa $1.25 Varland $0.76 Stewart $0.80 (Festa, Canterino, Moran, Funderburk, Prielipp, Henriquez all at $0.76) TOTAL PAYROLL: $133.69 ($121.49 if I subtract O'Neill for Adam Duval). A Couple of Notes: I'm a little over budget at nearly $134 million but I have to believe the Pohlad Family would understand that stretching the budget a little to have a team ready to contend in a competitive A.L. Central for 2025 and beyond will maximize their sale price. If this team is spinning its wheels in July and August in 4th place they are going to have a much harder time getting what they want. Spending $8-9 million more for their last season of ownership isn't and shouldn't be a deal breaker. To bring it more into line I could swap out O'Neill for Adam Duval 1 year, $1.80 million. The Lineup is power laden and the defense with O'Neill in LF and Iglesias rotating between SS/2B/3B helps the infield. We don't over spend for a 1B. With the acquisition of Westburg, we simply move Lewis over. Miranda can back up both 1B & 3B and without a full time DH, Rocco can rotate people through. Kiersey can get a little more of an opportunity to show what he can do before E-Rod arrives about mid-season. The starting rotation is LOADED with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Sasaki and either Alcantara or Luzardo. Festa could be in the pen throwing long relief with spot starts to protect his innings and Matthews is gaining additional seasoning at St. Paul and also available for spot starts. The biggest worry is the BP with the trade of Duran. Jax takes over as closer but Ferguson and Vesia add two solid LH options. You also have Funderburk, Canterino, Moran, Prielipp, Henriquez and Headrick as depth. Maybe you make a bigger bullpen signing if you go with Duval over O'Neill. The lineup doesn't have a true leadoff guy, but with Lewis, Correa, O'Neill, Wallner and Westburg there is plenty of power. Maybe Buxton moves back to leadoff. And Rushing should get a look at DH'ing some games he doesn't catch. He's got a bat that will play. This would be MY plan. I stuck with certain things from Eric's and also think his plan is good as well. My biggest difference is 1B where I go with Lewis and the starting rotation where I go hard for Sasaki and make a deal with Miami for Alcantara or Luzardo.
  17. tony&rodney is spot on when he mentions that the Twins cannot trade either jeffers or Vasquez until they have acquired another catcher. The steam on TD is that the Twins should be looking to make a deal to acquire Teel from Boston, Rushing from the Dodgers or Quero from the Brewers. Each are currently somewhat blocked by guys who had solid to great years in 2024--Connor Wong, Will Smith, and William Contreras. Each of the Red Sox, Dodgers and Brewers have a need for SP. This is where a SWR or a chunk of our international signing bonus money could come into play. But the fact remains, the Twins need to be bold with their catching situation and nobody in the farm system is going to make an impact. Go out and get that "catcher of the future" and overpay a bit if you have to. One team that wasn't listed in the possible trade partners was Miami. They have promising young pitchers, but probably the worst catching situation in MLB. Miami probably wouldn't want to pay all $10 million of Vasquez's salary, but they are desperate for a REAL catcher. And if you added some players/prospects to the deal (Larnach, Raya etc...) and took back Alcantara's $10 million dollar salary or Jesus Luzardo's you could probably make a deal. It should certainly be considered. Once the Twins make the first deal of the off season, which should involve the catching component, then they can decide who to trade between Vasquez or Jeffers. Then they can decide if they want to go all in on Roki Sasaki. Which will help them decide what role Griffin Jax has next year. Then they can decide how they plug their RH hitting outfield hole or their possible 1B hole if they don't think Miranda is the answer. They've got to make that trade for a Teel, Rushing or Quero FIRST.
  18. I don't really care what we get back in trades of Vasquez and Paddack. To me, the primary benefit of moving them is the $17.5 million we would trim from the payroll. We have to admit to the reality that this is what is primarily motivating the Pohlad family. The benefit in saving that $17.5 million is in how the team could better invest it. If you dumped those 2 for nothing and realized the full $17.5 million in savings, you could conceivably sign Tyler O'Neill for two years at $14-$15 million per and Aroldis Chapman for 1 year at $3 million. You would have your starting LF who is Gold Glove caliber, a 30HR guy who could also play a little CF and a fire balling LH out of the pen with closing experience. If you could somehow attach a couple of prospects/players in a Vasquez deal to Miami for either Alcantara or Luzardo, so much the better. Some candidates to attach: Larnach, Austin Martin, and any number of prospects outside of our top 8. That would allow the Twins to consider trading SWR in a package to acquire Quero, Rushing or Teel. ANY of which would be exciting. And having $7.5 million in international money (Thank You, Blyleven2011 !!!) should really put the Twins squarely in the middle of the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. If ever there was a time to blow the entire international signing budget on ONE player...Sasaki would be the guy. 23 years old. Throws 100 mph. Has a solid mix of breaking/off speed pitches. Would slot right into your rotation. He also allows the Twins to consider dealing another SP outside of SWR to plug some other gaping hole in the roster. I don't know where the $7.5 million ranks compared to the rest of MLB, but it certainly puts the Twins in the mix (should they CHOOSE to be in the mix). Half measures aren't going to put the Twins back in contention in the A.L. Central. Some bold moves moves need to be made. One trade or one FA signing isn't going to be effective, especially with current ownership's self imposed limitations. A series of moves needs to be planned, with contingencies for each move as well.
  19. How much International Signing Money do the Twins have for 2025 when Roki Sasaki is posted? He would certainly be worthy of blowing it ALL on him to win the prize of a major league ready, 23 year old RHP who can 100 mph. The idea is that the Dodgers have the inside track to sign him because of Ohtani and Yamamoto. But there is also talk of him preferring a smaller market. The Japanese, being an island nation are famous for their love of fishing. Minnesota has over 15,000 lakes, many of them scattered around the Twin Cities. Could that be an incentive for Sasaki? I'd sure look into that. His cost could be anywhere from $4 to $8 million. Just assume the Twins signed him for a moment. That allows the Twins to easily trade SWR and bring back some real talent in the deal. SWR's value has never been higher. The Dodgers had a slew of injuries in the rotation and could have interest. The Red Sox have gaping holes in their rotation. They may only have 2 spots out of 5 at this point. Both the Dodgers and Red Sox have good, young, CATCHERS. The Dodgers have 3 or 4 !! Put a package together centered on SWR and fill the hole at catcher. Go into next season with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Sasaki and Festa as your rotation. Leave Jax in the BP.
  20. I've been pushing for this approach in most of my comments about possible trades this off season. If the Twins don't make a BIG off season trade to off load our most expensive contracts (Correa, Lopez, Buxton) then THIS is the approach that makes more sense to me. I like ALL of these potential guys. Pereira would be an excellent RH hitting OF with power potential and would be an excellent compliment to E-Rod and Walker Jenkins. Ceddane Rafaela is a solid SS as well as a solid CF. He would be tremendous "insurance" if Correa or Buxton missed extended time. He's a free swinger who doesn't walk nearly enough. But he's a potential 20 HR-20 SB guy. He's 24 years old and just signed an 8 year $50 million dollar contract last year. That's just $6 million per year. He would make Willi Castro "tradeable" with his IF/OF versatility and cost certainty. Westburg is VERY intriguing as a young corner IF with power and bat to ball skills. Curtis Mead is much the same profile. I think the Red Sox and Orioles are the most likely trade partners. Both have massive holes in their starting rotation and are in desperate need of reinforcements, especially the Orioles if Corbin Burnes signs elsewhere. If I could trade SWR straight up for either, I'd do it in a heartbeat. The Twins are not served well with THREE young SP's (SWR, Festa, Matthews) looking for rotation spots. Two would be my maximum. One would be best case scenario (Festa) with Matthews getting more time at St. Paul to refine and starts with the Twins as needed. SWR had the best season and his value should be at it's highest. Sell high, add a young position player that will immediately be a starter. My preference would be Rafaela or Westburg. How would SWR for either stack up in a BBTV trade? I'd add an outside our top 10 minor leaguer if need be to seal the deal. Guys like rafaela and Westurg are 2 outstanding targets. Baltimore already has too many prospect mouths to feed. They are going to HAVE to deal some of them to plug their own roster holes. The Red Sox would probably loath giving up Rafaela, but they probably loath their thin starting rotation possibilities more.
  21. Thank You for the effort RCCola. Reading an article like this is always somewhat depressing due to the penurious ways of the hated Pohlad family. If they just gave a darn and were willing to bend a little to field a contender the easiest, no-brainer signing would be Christian Walker. A Gold Glove worthy defender with consistent power and production at a position with a gaping hole. He'd have an instant and positive impact on the lineup. And while Goldschmidt is the HOF worthy 1B and would be $5 million cheaper than Walker, Walker is clearly the better choice at this point with his power, health and glove. I would take the "in for a penny, in for a pound" strategy and just pay the extra $5 million for Walker rather than taking the bigger risk with Goldy just to save $5. This is why we've had an interesting time debating the series of "Should the Twins Trade...?" If you moved one or some of the bigger contracts this ostensibly would give you some money to play with. Using the example of a Lopez and Paddack trade to the Red Sox for young catcher Kyle Teel, that would save the Twins $29 million dollars. I'm not sure how realistic that trade would be, maybe an outside the top 10 minor league prospect would need to be included, maybe not. The red Sox get an Ace at the top of their rotation and a #5 SP or someone to move into their BP which is losing 4 or 5 heavy contributors from 2024. The Twins get a young LH hitting catcher to pair with Jeffers. This opens up a trade of Vasquez to a team for practically nothing coming back as long as the team getting Vasquez takes on all $10 million of his 2025 salary. You also trade Willi Castro and his $6 million dollar salary. Now the Twins have $45 million to play with with. If Christian Walker would cost $20 million and Tyler O'Neill $14 million that leaves you $11 million to sign Aroldis Chapman to the BP and Jose Iglesias as a cheap, infield stop gap depth piece. Boyd or Quintana as a LHP in the rotation. This is what's been missing in all the "Should the Twins Trade...?" pieces. What's the end game? How do you use that extra money if you dealt a major piece like Lopez. So here's a rough outline of a potential Twins roster: C Jeffers Teel 1B C. Walker Miranda 2B Lee 3B Lewis SS Correa Iglesias--SS/2B/3B (Eeles? etc...) OF Tyler O'Neill Buxton Wallner (Larnach/Kiersey) SP: Ryan, Ober, Boyd/Quintana, Jax, Festa, SWR, (Matthews, Lewis) BP: Duran, Chapman, Sands, Varland, Stewart, Topa, (Funderburk, Moran, Henriquez, Headrick, Prielipp etc...) and Jax if he's not in the rotation. If the Twins don't add a penny to the roster, or they go to $130 million instead of $125, this could be a realistic roster and I'd be quite happy with it. The rotation takes a hit without Pablo, but probably has the depth to sustain the loss. You've added 2 powerful RH bats to your lineup and they play GOOD defense at 1B and LF and O'Neill can play some CF if needed. You've added your catcher of the future in Kyle Teel and you're finally giving DaShawn Kiersey a chance to show what he can do as the 4th outfielder with the distinct possibility that Emmanuel Rodriguez is up before July 1st. That lineup could MASH.
  22. I'm all for it. After seeing Lopez and Lugo succeed they way they did last year it's not an idea that has no merit. Jax would never be asked to throw more than 5 innings in a game. In a way, it would be a lot like having Sonny Gray (with Rocco as the manager). 30 starts, 5 innings per start, 150 innings. Maybe a few starts don't go 5 innings and he's skipped a couple times throughout the 162 game season and he's at 135-140 innings. There is no question he's a completely different pitcher now than in 2019. Nobody would know how Jax could train to adapt his body to a different role than Jax himself. And I'm pretty sure there isn't a player on the entire roster who works harder than Griffin Jax. Moving him weakens the BP temporarily but has the potential to improve the rotation and open up the possibility of trading one of the SP's for a player who could fill a big weakness. With the SP talent currently climbing up the minor league levels and having Festa, SWR and Matthews all gaining valuable experience last year this idea has a chance. Perhaps the Twins deal SWR when his value is at it's highest to plug a current hole in the roster? Signing a LH RP like Aroldis Chapman who is LH, could close, as well as hold down the 8th inning would help relieve the risk of moving Jax to the rotation. Having Varland, Prielipp and (dare I hope...) Matt Canterino available to shoulder some of the BP load would also help. This would be a move not made for just 2025, but also for 2026 and beyond. As Jax gets more expensive (aka VALUABLE) his trade value also increases. I just know that if I had to bet on a guy on the Twins roster working his tail off to get better and succeed in a new role, Griffin Jax would be one guy I wouldn't bet against.
  23. I agree Mike, I think a segment of TD is completely missing the point of these "Should the Twins Trade "X" articles. The articles are not recommending we SHOULD trade these guys, they are pointing out what the ramifications would be if we did. What is missing in these articles and where I think the TD staff is not serving their readership as well as they could, is a BBTV proposed framework of 2 or 3 hypothetical deals for each of these player specific trades. This isn't to say that BBTV is the "be all, end all" of trade ideas. But it at least gives you a sense of the "value" of the Twins player/players stacked against the "value" of the players other teams have. It lets you see if you're at least in the ballpark for a proposed trade. In every one of these trade scenarios it all comes down to what is coming back and if the deal made provides the Twins with some payroll relief, what are some of the ideas the Twins could have in using that payroll relief in further trades or FA signings with that money. Who in their right mind would just jump on board and say, "Heck Yeah! We should should send Pablo Lopez packing!!" I would like to see TD revisit this concept in the near future with a sharper focus on specifics. Not just "should the Twins trade Duran??" But more like, if the Twins explored a trade for Duran, here are 3 teams with a huge need for a closer and what a potential deal could bring back to the Twins. For example, bean5302 has provided us with a BBTV numerical value of 31.0 for Jhoan Duran. He's also provided a value of 40.4 for Red Sox AAA catcher Kyle Teel who probably only has April, May and June left at AAA. The Red Sox are a good trade partner with the Twins because they need a closer in the worst way and are also desperate for starting pitching. Let's say the Twins offer Duran and Chris Paddack for Teel? This depends on what Paddack's BBTV actually is but is this a realistic deal?? The Red Sox have taken the risk on a SP like Paxton. How would they feel about Paddack? What other trade pieces could be cobbled together to make a deal? What if the Twins also had their eye on a SS/CF like Ceddane Rafaela? What is HIS value and how would the trade expand if OUR targets were Teel and Rafaela? If not Duran, what if a deal for Teel was centered around Baily Ober? Unless the readers of TD have some kind of framework to evaluate a trade of a good player like Correa, Buxton, Lopez, Ober, Ryan, Duran etc...why on earth should we be in favor of it. I think this series has the potential to spur some good comments, but the TD staff needs to do a better job on it.
  24. I agree on all three. This is "hidden treasure" in the Twins farm system. Varland has used up all his chances to be a SP. It's BP from this point out. And I agree, as a 2-inning guy he has even more value. Canterino has been one of my favorite prospects but he just can't seem to stay healthy. The Twins struck gold when they moved Duran to the pen. I say, follow the same path and get 50 innings or so out of him for a couple seasons and see how it goes. With his raw stuff, any bullets he uses in the minors are wasted. Prielipp is slightly different in that he could still have a little runway to use as a SP. But getting him up to the big leagues and letting him get his feet wet in the BP doesn't automatically disqualify him as a possible SP in a couple of years. We've seen Reynaldo Lopez and Seth Lugo as 2 tremendous examples that guys can move from the pen into the rotation and be awfully. darn. GOOD. And with these three guys, this brings me to Griffin Jax. If you gave all three of these guys spots in the BP I think you'd be able to transition Jax to a #3 or #4 spot in the rotation. And I think it would go quite nicely. A plan like this would allow the Twins to dangle SWR or Matthews in a deal to fill a glaring need, like 1B or C. I think you could get more for SWR than Matthews at this point and I like Matthews as a prospect better. I'm leaving the #5 spot for Festa. I liked what I saw last year in spurts. I think he's got the highest ceiling.
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