TopGunn#22

Johan Santana began his Twins career as a Rule 5 pick out of the BP. I think guys like Doc Gast and Lambchop and others who mention Prielipp and Canterino in the same breath are on the same wave-length as me. I see two young guys (Prielipp the younger) who have electric stuff but health hurdles. Moving them to the BP is not a guarantee of health, but it IS a way to carefully manage their pitches/innings. I also do not believe that either of them needs to spend a LOT more time in the minors polishing this, and refining that. Yes, they do need some time down there, neither of them will break camp with the Twins, but the idea of having Canterino up some time in May and Prielipp after the All Star Game (if healthy and doing well) is a plan I wholeheartedly endorse. And the idea that if either of them starts in the BP with the Twins, they will never, ever be a SP is being proven wrong more and more with guys like Crochet, Lugo, Reynaldo Lopez, Hicks etc...Heck, the Twins even considered moving Griffin Jax. Starting off in the BP is not a death sentence. But it can be a quicker ticket to the Big Leagues. I remember a pitcher with the Twins when I was a kid named Tommy Hall. He was REALLY slender, so they nicknamed him "The Blade." In 1969 he made a couple of spot starts for the Twins when Dean Chance battled some injuries. In 1970, he was set to be in the BP again (he really had swing and miss stuff). Luis Tiant when down after 10 starts and 20-game winner Dave Boswell just couldn't reclaim his 1969 magic. So the Twins called up a very young Bert Blyleven to replace Boswell in the rotation and moved Hall in to replace Tiant. Hall threw 155 innings, K'd 184 guys (184 !!) and won 11 games. Once again, a guy who was brought up who had started in the minor leagues was fast tracked to the big leagues as a relief pitcher, but found himself in the rotation eventually. Bringing a guy up and starting him out in the pen doesn't mean that is the only outcome.

Excellent point Indiana Twin. Cleveland's BP was EPIC last year. Clase had a year few closers have ever had. That his WAR was just 2.1 amazes me. But it wasn't just Clase, a LOT of guys in Cleveland's pen were absolutely outstanding. Cade Smith especially. There is a strong chance Cleveland's BP will still be good, but could also have some significant regression. They were THAT good. You could say the same about Griffin Jax. He was really good last year. Can he do it again? I think so because he was pretty solid in 2023 as well. There may be a slight regression from Jax, but he will still be good. I look for Duran to bounce back and be dominant again. I'm just not confident Rocco will use him exclusively as the CLOSER. That's how Cleveland uses Clase. That's what I think Rocco needs to do with Duran. The Royals and Tigers look to have a lot of question marks but it's certainly possible some guys will emerge. I think some trades may get done for the Twins within a week or two and I'm hopeful they will create some excitement for Twins fans.

That's the idea Otaknam, we have a need for a young catching prospect and tangentially to dump Vasquez and his $10 million dollar contract. Targeting Quero and using a strength of IF talent to acquire Quero followed by a trade of Vasquez to shed the $10 million along with the $6 million of Castro's contract opens up the possibility to add a RH hitting OF (Austin Hayes or Mark Canha) or a better 1B like Yandy Diaz in a trade. Maybe even sign a solid LH RP. Castro has value. I don't want to just give him away. But I have doubts he will be a Twin beyond 2025 and holes to fill with this current roster. The first trade the Twins make should be the first domino in about 3 trades that sets the Twins roster for opening day. Boston traded their young catching prospect Kyle Teel. They have Connor Wong but Vasquez was a solid catcher for them on a World Series winning team. I think Boston would take him and all $10 million of his contract if they could send us a lottery ticket prospect. If I could, I'd love to send them Vasquez for Ceddane Rafaela. Both are making $10 million per season and are considered negative assets by BBTV. Rafaela is also much younger than Vasquez and plays an excellent SS & CF. He's the perfect insurance for Correa and Buxton and can also play a good 2B. I'd highly doubt Boston would do it, but I'd at least ask.

I like how Indiana Twin has laid out his "starts" over the course of a season. It gives us a logical look how a 6-man rotation could play out. Each team in MLB would have different reasons for a 6-man rotation. Take the Dodgers: With the addition of Sasaki and with Yamamoto in the rotation along with Ohtani you have 50% of a 6-man staff accustomed to working in a 6-man staff. Ohtani is coming off Tommy John surgery. Yamamoto had injury issues last year. In addition, with the other three, Snell, Glasgow and potentially Kershaw, each of those guys with their injury issues benefits from an extra day of rest. The challenge for the Dodgers is how deep do each of their pitchers go in games, especially Snell and Kershaw, their 2 lefty's who recently have been 5 inning pitchers. Dave Roberts biggest challenge will be managing a BP that, while his rotation will probably give him at least 5 good innings each outing, will have a LOT of innings the BP will have to cover. The Twins #4, #5 & #6 SP's are not of the caliber the Dodgers have. I will also echo the idea that Paddack will not be on the Twins in 2025, so you're looking at SWR, Festa and Matthews as #4, #5 & #6. With that, even though I think 2025 will see Festa and Matthews emerge, I'd stick with a 5-man staff and maximize my starts for Pablo, Ryan and Ober while having Varland and maybe one other pitcher that I could use for 2-inning stints 2 to 3 times per week. Maybe that's how Raya breaks in to the big leagues. A 6-man rotation makes perfect sense for the Dodgers. It is an interesting consideration for the Twins, but the way our rotation will look after a Paddack trade, I don't see it working in 2025.

To those who don't think the Twins are in "Win Now" mode, despite the Pohlad family's decree that payroll must be cut...did any of you read Seth Stoh's breakdown of each of the A.L. Central's IF, OF, SP and bullpen? If you didn't, or you just skimmed it, the Twins have as much talent as any of the three playoff teams in the division. Based on WAR, we have the 2nd best starting rotation with Lopez, Ryan and Ober all primed to have very good seasons. The top rated rotation in the division, K.C. has a legit Cy Young candidate in Cole Ragans and some serious question marks after that. Seth Lugo was outstanding for the Royals last year. He went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA. He also threw a career high 207 innings. The year before, he transitioned to a SP role with the Padres and made 26 starts/146 innings pitched. Prior to last year that 146 IP was a career high. Lugo may defy the odds again in 2025, but he's 35 years old and I think he's ready for a fall. The Royals #3 is Michael Wacha and he's been fairly steady for the last 3 years. Detroit has Cy Young Winner Tarik Skubal and he's a beast. After him they have young but unproven talent. Flaherty is gone. Defending division champs Cleveland are thin with Bieber and McKenzie trying to return from injury. The Twins ranked well in IF talent, OF talent and bullpen talent. They have what it takes to reclaim the division crown if Correa and Buxton can stay healthy enough to play in 100+ games and young talent like Lewis, Wallner and Lee stay healthy and play like their capable. The Twins should compete. Castro is an important part of that talent mix. But it's clear his value is at an all time high and even with new ownership in 2025, will Willi be back in 2026? Young talent like Keaschall, Eeles, Helman and E-Rod could make Castro less valuable to the Twins if any of all of those kids make an impact. So for the purpose of the article, if I traded Willi Castro, what would I look for in return? Probably neither of the packages offered. But I WOULD target Jefferson Quero, Milwaukee's young catching prospect that many think is very close to being major league ready. Quero is blocked by All Star William Contreras, so the Brewers might be willing to part with him. Quero's value on BBTV is 22.7. Castro's is 8.9 so one-for-one is probably not happening. Eddie Julien's value is 16.5. I'd package him with Castro (total value 25.4) for Quero and get a low level lottery ticket or a higher level prospect who has stalled out (think Camargo value) someone whose value is 2.0 or less. I'd slightly over pay just to get Quero. The Brewers use Castro at 2B primarily and Utility as they need. Julien continues to try to improve at 2b while learning 1B. Turang moves to SS. Then I'd be in a position to trade Vasquez (or even Jeffers, not likely, but it would depend what I could get back). Quero steps in with whoever isn't traded and I have a year to monitor Diego Cartaya. In 2026 the Twins would have Quero, maybe Jeffers and maybe Cartaya. Vasquez would be gone either way. Young catching would be in place. 2B/3B would be Lewis, Lee or Keaschall (2B/1B) with Eeles my Utility Man. I'd have Miranda for 1B/3B/DH. E-Rod in LF. Bottom line, Castro has value now but will probably not be with the Twins in 2026. The Twins want to compete in 2025. Can they make themselves better in an area of weakness and replace Castro on the major league roster in 2025 with Keaschall, Eeles or Helman adequately?? That's the gamble, but one I'd be willing to take to get a talented young catcher into the fold.

I was at the game that Reese hit the pinch hit Grand Slam off of Dave McNally. Just a note: McNally had his consecutive game win streak stopped at 17, not 15. I was a 6th grader and a friend of mine who had a Christmas Day birthday would have what his parents would call an "un-birthday" in the summer each year. In 1969, his Dad, who was a Mayo Clinic physician, somehow managed to get seats RIGHT BEHIND the Twins dugout. I had never had a seat like that before, I was used to being exiled to the right field knot hole gang seats with my 2 brothers. Seeing Oliva, Killebrew, Carew and Tovar THAT CLOSE while they played catch was a memory that will stay with me forever. That game and the 1969 season have always been my favorite for the Twins. Probably being an 11 year old 6th grader had a lot to do with that, but under manager Billy Martin, it was a magical year. Killebrew won the MVP and A.L. HR crown (49) and RBI's (140). Carew won his first A.L. batting title (.332) and stole home 7 times. Tony Oliva, my favorite Twin, hit .309 and led the A.L. with 39 doubles while knocking in over 100 runs. He also won a Gold Glove. Cesar Tovar stole 45 bases. And they had two 20 game winners, Jim Perry and Dave Boswell. I can rattle stuff like that off without needing to look it up to this day. As 6th graders, my friends and I at the game (there were 4 of us) were all baseball experts. We couldn't believe Billy Martin sent Rich Reese up in the 7th inning to pinch hit against McNally with the bases loaded. EVERYBODY knew Reese couldn't hit a lefty !!! My memory is that McNally threw Reese a fastball up and Reese crushed it to deep left center field. Oriole CF Paul Blair was racing toward the left center field wall to try to make the catch, but Oriole LF Don Buford was just watching it fly over his head into the seats. Met Stadium went crazy. Even in 1987 or 1991 in the Metrodome, I don't remember it being louder than that summer day of August 3rd, 1969 in the open air of Metropolitan Stadium. These look backs at various Twins players are a tremendous feature of TD. I may not always comment on each player but I read every one of them. This one was special because of that hot August day in 1969 when for the first time in my life, as Bob Uecker would say, 3 friends of mine and I had seats "in the front row" to see an incredible baseball game between the 2 best teams in the American League with 7 eventual HOF players.

Great article and great series breaking down the A.L. Central Seth. I am pretty much in agreement with your rankings, in each of your examples you provided. There are some things that are a certainty and other things that are very much a question to be answered. At the top of the list for each of the A.L. Central teams is HEALTH. The Chicago White Sox are bad. Their hitting is bad, Their pitching is bad. They have some young talent coming but they will have more "downs" than "ups" for a while. The Tigers have not only the best SP in the A.L. Central, but maybe the best in all of baseball. Tarik Skubal could very well follow last season's CY Young with another one this year. The Tigers have some other talented young pitchers, but none that comes close to Skubal. If he were to miss any time at all this season it would be a major blow to the Tigers. Cleveland is the great unknown to me. They have past stars (Bieber and McKenzie) who are recovering from injuries who have either won a CY Young or been very, very good. They have young SP with great potential, (Bibee and Gavin Williams). The variance of what they COULD be and what they WILL be in enormous. The Royals have the best 1-2 in the division according to WAR with Ragans and Lugo and a solid #3 with Wacha. However, Lugo's transition from reliever to starter exceeded all expectations last year and with it came a large increase in innings. Can he repeat it? Ragans is a sleeper CY Young candidate. Wacha was solid last year, but pitching can be so up and down. Can he repeat or come close to what he did? I'd give KC the nod for top rotation and best player in the division, Bobby Witt Jr. Finally the Twins. We all expect Lopez to have a bounce back season. Much closer to 2023 than 2024. Joe Ryan, like Cole Ragans, has that look of a sneaky CY Young candidate provided he stays healthy all season. To me, Ober is the best #3 in the division despite Wacha having a 3.3 WAR to his 2.9. Given a choice, I'd take Ober and his consistent improvement year after year to out perform Wacha by the end of the year. I don't see Paddack throwing a single inning for the Twins this season. He's going to get traded soon. The #4 & #5 spots in the rotation will be Festa & SWR backed up by Matthews and Morris. Questions abound. Can SWR come close to his 2024? Can Festa tap into his tremendous potential and throw 150 innings? Will the Twins surprise with a SP addition? Someone like Jose Quintana? How would that affect the rotation? Would it come down to a spring training battle between Festa and SWR for the #5 spot? Quintana would be an interesting addition. He's left-handed. He eats up innings. He's kind of a perfect stabilizing #4 where someone like Festa could be the "exciting potential" #5. Would the addition of someone like Quintana allow the Twins to dangle SWR in a trade to add a better 1B or RH hitting outfielder? Last year, 3 A.L. Central teams made the playoffs. The Twins certainly have the talent to win the division. That much is clear in Seth's series. Next up will be the bullpen. Cleveland had an historic BP last year, from Clase down to the last arm in the pen. Can they all repeat it? The Twins have potentially one of the best BP's in all of baseball, not just the A.L. Central. A good BP can make the starting rotation even better.

This is great news Lavelle's notes just reinforce what we've been hearing. I have no problem with this possibly taking until Memorial Day, as long as it happens by then. As a fan, I'm still hoping that we're in contention and that a big trade can be swung before the deadline. By Memorial Day A LOT of questions will at least have partial answers. Is the team healthy? Who is playing 1B, 2B & 3B? How are Wallner and Larnach doing so far? How are guys like E-Rod, Eeles and Keaschall doing? What about Julien? Who are our #4 & #5 SP's and how are they doing? etc... The change will happen in time for a possible blockbuster deal and the Twins will have more information from which to work from.

I would shift Castro in the LF role and have Larnach as the DH, or possibly an average of Larnach/Miranda as the DH. Castro's glove, especially as good as he is in LF specifically, means he's the LF and Larnach the DH in this comparison. The clear "All A.L. Central OF" would be Kwan in LF, Buxton in CF and Carpenter in RF. But Wallner has the potential to come close to Carpenter in OPS and OPS+ this season. Carpenter will hit for a higher average and strike out less, but Wallner's power potential, especially if he can reach 500+ AB's is exciting. I think TwinsDr2021 is right. Wallner has put together 2 straight seasons of an OPS over .800. He's done it in roughly half a season both times. He needs to take a step forward and show a little something against LHP and even though there will be a slump or two to deal with, Wallner needs to be in RF for at least 120 games. The same is true with Larnach. The key to both Larnach & Wallner is continuing to be solid hitters against RHP but to show some kind of improvement against lefty's. Throw Castro into the OF mix and it's clear the Twins have the best collection of OF's in the A.L. Central. Buxton is the key, and a mid-season call up of E-Rod could really take it to another level. I would like to see Keirsey get a solid chance because I love his defense. But if he makes the team out of spring training, I wonder if he's just a bridge until E-Rod gets called up. The certainty of our OF stands in in stark contrast to the uncertainty of our IF. With the exception of Correa at SS each of 1B, 2B & 3B is a question mark as to who will be deployed to each position. Potential aces in the hole are minor leaguers like Eeles and Keaschall. The ceiling of what they could give the Twins at 1B & 2B is really interesting. What is their floor?

Thanks Seth ! This was a very interesting read and already there are a number of good comments. C: Clearly Sal Perez and Fermin are #1. Although a healthy Pasquantino may allow Perez more time at catcher, I would think the Royals would want to limit his catching innings where they could. Fermin was very good in a limited sample size last year. The Twins are O.K. here, maybe even #2. But as with every position in the infield for the Twins, who will actually be playing at each position. I'm not sure we will have Jeffers/Vasquez to begin the season or for a full season. 1B: Santana is about to fall off a cliff. He will come nowhere near a 3.0 WAR in 2025. I'm not as high on Julien recovering to become a better hitter "yet." He was SO LOST at the plate last season. I also think his days at 2B are numbered in the Twins organization. Just too many guys have moved past him. I am confident Miranda can do a decent job. To me KC is clearly the strongest at 1B with a combo of Perez and Pasquantino. Colt Keith intrigues me for the Tigers. I would rank 1B: KC, Tigers, Twins, Cleveland and CWS. (Who knows...even with Colt Keith playing most of the innings at 1B could Torkelson finally start hitting somewhere near his potential for the Tigers)?? 2B: Again, this is very hard to get a feel for where the Twins could end up. Lewis, Lee, Eeles and Keachall (as well as Castro) could all play 2B. There's a reasonably good expectation that the Twins will have some pretty solid offense there. Cleveland's 1B and 2B losses cannot be underestimated and the idea that Polanco will be an answer for them is laughable. Cleveland is hurting there. KC really upgraded with India (but lost a solid and fairly young SP in Singer to get him) and Gleybor will be decent in Detroit. I'd go: KC, Twins, Det, Cleve, CWS. 3B: It's Jose Ramirez in a runaway. Who will be the Twins 3B? Lewis can compete reasonably well with Ramirez minus the SB's, if he can stay healthy. But Lewis ANYWHERE in the IF, whether it be 3B, 2B or 1B with 30 HR's and 100 RBI is tremendous. The Wild Card is Bregman. Does he sign with the Tigers or the Red Sox?? For the sake of this comparison let's take the worst case scenario and put him with the Tigers. Cleveland, Tigers, Twins, Royals, White Sox. SS: The best player in the American League is Bobby Witt Jr. and he should only get better. Correa is the clear #2. I'll go Cleveland, Tigers and White Sox after the top two. When it's time for me to chime in on the OF it should be a lot easier to figure out where the Twins stand because there are nowhere near the mysteries of the infield. It will be fascinating to see how the Twins shake out their IF. With the exception of SS none of us can say with any certainty who will be the primary 3B, 2B and 1B. I like that Royce Lewis is going away from the bulked up body and is endeavoring to become slimmer and more flexible. He'll still be a power hitter but maybe he can stay healthier and might even be able to use his once top shelf speed to steal a few bases. Lewis is the KEY to how the IF shakes out. I'd play him where ever I could maximize his health so as to make sure I had his impact bat in the lineup. If that means 1B, so be it. Let Brooks Lee play 3B and Castro 2B until Eeles or Keaschall kick down the door and claim the position. Miranda can be the primary DH, which wouldn't be all that bad if it helps him stay healthier and leads to a more productive season at the plate.

Great Post Doc Bauer ! I had forgotten about Dason Hill after initially being excited we picked him. It's far to easy to lose track of all the guys they pick year after year. Even the ones that you think might be pretty good. Could you clarify something you've posted a couple times? Do you KNOW the Twins are not inviting Eeles or McCusker to spring training? Or are you just hoping they do? I can't imagine a couple of guys that reached AAA St. Paul and performed well (especially Eeles) wouldn't be invited. And with the status of 2B up in the air (is it Lewis, Lee, Julien or Castro) a guy like Eeles, with his apparent elite bat to ball skills and his 41 SB's over the entire minor league season he played, I can't imagine they WOULDN'T give him a long look. I realize Eeles has really only had that one season last year, but it was a very IMPRESSIVE season. I'm very excited about some of the guys we have in our system and I would think it's better to have potentially high impact guys than a lot of "depth." I would like to see the Twins do better in Latin America and internationally in general. I'm a dreamer, so I'm still dreaming of Roki Sasaki. HOW MLB measures a farm system matters. But I think it's obvious MLB thinks the Twins farm system is loaded with some high upside potential as well as good depth throughout the system. I can understand how a certain level, in this case AA may be a little short on talent to begin the season, but a number of those lower lever guys may get promoted fairly quickly and reinforce AA. I think Winokur is a more athletic right handed version of Matt Wallner. Wallner is a corner OF who might play some 1B despite having a cannon for an arm. A young, LH version of Frank Howard. Winokur could end up anywhere in the OF at 3B or 1B. But the raw power both have is intriguing. Can they have a reasonable K rate and hit enough HR's to justify the K's??

I agree with the idea that we as Twins fans still have a lot to be excited about. Even with the lack of anything of note so far in the off season I'll put this in the positive column because we haven't traded anybody like Correa or Lopez and...WE'RE GOING TO HAVE NEW OWNERS SOON !! Jenkins is the prospect at the top of the list but many of us won't have much opportunity to watch him play. TD will need to give us daily updates. There will be an appetite for it. I don't see Jenkins playing with the Twins until 2026. Let him spend all of 2025 conquering the minors at various levels. If the Twins think he's ready, give him a cup of coffee in September. I think Wallner and Larnach will show improvement, even if it's modest. I think E-Rod will play well enough in St. Paul that he will be up by the All Star Game. Whether he plays well enough to stick with the team is the question. E-Rod will certainly be a future major leaguer. But he may need some time to figure out how passive he can be at the plate. His defense will play just fine. The two guys I'm most curious about are Eeles and Keaschall. They both seem to have a very good idea of the strike zone and I like the speed that Eeles could bring. I think Miranda will do just fine at 1B. But each of Wallner, Larnach, Miranda and Buxton have had injury issues throughout their major league careers. E-Rod can cover all 3 OF spots. Keaschall can cover 2B, 1B and LF. Eeles 2B, SS, 3B. I've been critical of the Twins FO in the past. But I have to give them credit for the current condition of the minor league pipeline. Some of it was luck: The Twins getting the #5 pick in the draft where Jenkins fell to 5th. But most of it has been finding and drafting guys like E-Rod, Lee, Wallner, Keaschall, Larnach, Eles, Miranda, even Julien. I think the ascension of Keaschall and Eeles makes Julien somewhat expendable. His value hasn't completely cratered. Maybe a trade could bring something of value back.

I'm always interested to hear what others have concocted as possible trades for the Twins. I will accept the argument that Vasquez is the more likely traded catcher and that Jeffers, with greater value would bring back more. But in each of these trade proposals the Twins get back far less than the value of Jeffers. I vote "no" for both trades. I wouldn't rule out a trade of Jeffers, but the Twins need to get something back far better than a left handed relief pitcher who's locked into a $4 million dollar salary for the next 4 seasons. Remember the current regime's philosophy on RP. They don't pay ANYONE close to $4 million. Jax and Duran are FAR SUPERIOR to the guy the Padres would be sending us and current ownership would be more likely to trade Jax and Duran before paying THEM $4 million per season. While the acquisition of Cartaya is interesting, he's at least a solid season in the minors away from even being considered as a possible catching option. Too much to fix with him right now. Any trade of Vasquez/Jeffers needs to have a young catcher coming back or another trade would need to be completed, either before said trade to ensure the 2025 season was covered for the Twins behind the plate.

I agree Fatbat. I'm also surprised but very happy that this potential sale is progressing so rapidly. I hear there are groups other than the Ishbia brothers who are interested, but I'm skeptical due to the lack of ANY other names being mentioned. Especially with the rumor that the Ishbia brothers would like to bring guys like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into their group. But I think you (Fatbat) hit the nail on the head. Every move or non-move made to this point has been quite inconsequential. Vasquez and Paddack (and to a lesser degree Castro) have not been moved to dump their salaries. Lopez, Correa and Rod Carew (kidding about Carew) have not been moved. If the Twins actually had someone in their FO named "Pat" I would suspect something deeper than "Standing Pat" was taking place. I and several others have already mentioned that a sale by opening day would mean that the roster is practically set in stone at this point to begin the season, but with new ownership in place, this COULD auger a possible major deadline deal if the Twins were in contention. But I also wonder, if the negotiations have progressed to the point that a sale could be finalized on or before opening day, have their been any conversations with the Pohlad's, the Twins FO and the Ishbia brothers about the $130 million dollar 2025 payroll level? Could a FA signing or trade for a 1B be a possibility? Could signing Kirby Yates for the BP be a possibility? Who could be a possible RH hitting corner OF/1B? Is there a FA SP or a trade possibility for a SP being considered? Despite SWR's performance last season and Festa's potential, adding one more solid, dependable SP would lessen the need to rely so heavily on 2nd year pitchers in the #4 & #5 rotation slots. The news of an agreement for a sale coming soon is ALL GOOD. The Ishbia brothers aren't going to move the team. There is zero percent chance of that happening. But expanding the payroll to something above $130 million could greatly enhance the Twins chances of either winning the A.L. Central or qualifying as a Wild Card.

Good point Twins Fan in NJ. Once again it points to the absolute wealth the Dodgers have in their farm system, especially when it comes to catchers. Now, to a high degree it may just be the "Dodger Bounce" that prospects get, the predictable overhype. L.A. has been living on that since 1969 when they drafted Buckner, Cey, Garvey and Bobby Valentine. So there's a very real possibility that Cartaya is 95% hype. It's hard to contain the Dodger prospect hype machine once it gets rolling. But the Twins literally have ZERO catching prospects in their farm system. If they did, we would have at least heard about one or two that "Twins Insiders" discuss those that have a real chance. This is a deal that is a pure lottery ticket but is worth the minimal price we paid for the ticket. It's also why they sent a LH RP out for Mickey Gasper, a resource that every major league team is desperate for. Boston bought a lottery ticket with Jovanni Moran. Good for them. Maybe it works out. I'm glad WE were the team that ended up with Cartaya. If it works out it will be a shrewd deal made by Falvey/Zoll whether they are still in their present positions or long gone from Minnesota.

This is a decent move. Vasquez was a nobody in the Twins system. Not one team will miss whatever innings he would have pitched. My expectations are low for Cartaya. But he was once highly regarded. There is "potential" there but a lot needs to be improved and refined. He's literally a lottery ticket, literally. If you scratch off and get nothing, you shrug your shoulders and toss the ticket away. If you win, well, it was against the odds but the investment was worth it.

At least going into THIS year, Wallner has to be considered above Larnach despite the fact that Larnach was a 1st round draft choice and starred in leading his Oregon State team to an NCAA title. Wallner's OPS these last 2 seasons are much higher than Larnach's. His arm is certainly better. Their gloves could be considered equal. My post is not meant to slight Larnach. I think both players are showing signs of figuring it out and should each show improvement in 2025. But Wallner's "upside" is just higher. If Wallner even shows some regression and finishes with an .800 OPS after playing as the primary RF all season his final stats will be very impressive. Yes, Wallner K's too much. So did Killebrew. So did Dave Kingman. The Twins have to hope that Wallner can be a Rocky Colovito left handed hitter without the glove. Wallner is probably more Kingman than anyone else. Kingman career 162 game averages: 557 AB's 20-2B 2-3B 37-HR 101 RBI 152-K's .236-BA .302 OBP SLG .478 OPS .780 OPS+ .115 With Wallner, the strikeouts are baked in. But the Power always played. The Twins can't be a winning team with a lineup of Wallner's. But if other guys supply on-base skill and there are a couple other consistent power sources, Wallner can be an excellent #6 or #7 hitter with 30 HR power.

I find the Payton Eeles conversation and comparisons to Brooks Lee very interesting. The key stat that jumps out to me regarding Eeles is the low strikeout rate. It shows he's got a command of the strike zone and has a good bat to ball contact rate. And that's a quality the Twins could use more of. It's one of the reasons that I mentioned Eddie Julien would be a trade chip I'd be looking to cash in on if I had any say in the Twins FO. Julien is already being talked about for a position change to 1B, yet the Twins just signed Ford for St. Paul. How does that get Julien reps at 1B? For a guy who was supposed to have a command of the strike zone, Julien struck out too much his first year but walked "just enough" to make it somewhat tolerable. His 2024 season was one of the most messed up I've ever seen for any major league hitter. His most current BBTV is listed at 16.5. With Lewis, Lee, Castro, Eeles, Keaschall. Culpepper etc...his chances to remain at 2B seem slim in the Twins organization. With Miranda, Lewis, now Ford and the possibility that Wallner or Larnach buys a 1B mitt in the near future, where does Julien fit on the Twins and even St. Paul? That 16.5 value is quite a drop form the 35 range value Julien had with BBTV after the 2023 season. But I think 16.5 is about as high as you'd get for him right now. Brooks Lee, if memory serves me, has had a BBTV around 30-40. I don't have any problem with the Twins wanting Eeles to prove it again, maybe for an entire season at St. Paul. But he's clearly better than Julien, and he's certainly worth the conversation/comparison with Lee. It's kind of like when the Dodgers drafted Mike Piazza in the 40th round or so. They had no idea he would blossom into the hitter and HOF catcher he became. But they figured it out soon enough. Imagine if Eeles and/or Keaschall turn out to be pretty good. Julien has no future with the Twins. We're already talking like Lee can't handle SS and will be a 3B/2B in the future. What could the Twins bring back if they were willing to deal Lee and Julien within this 2025 season?? Reports are leaking out that the Twins sale could happen by or before OPENING DAY. If that happens, the roster we have now will probably be very close to the roster we break camp with. But come the trade deadline, when a large chunk of the season will have been played, the Twins are going to have a better understanding of where Eeles, Keaschall, Julien, Lee and Lewis are at. And I could see the new owners being willing to make a BIG splash at the deadline if the Twins were in contention. I could imagine a trade of Julien before the end of spring training. I could also imagine a trade of Brooks Lee by the deadline if Eeles and Keaschall are impressing at St. Paul making a promotion to the Twins possible. I agree that an asset like Correa shouldn't be judged by what he could bring back in a trade, even though it should be pretty good. But players like Julien, Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Wallner and Larnach absolutely need to have some of that trade value factored in. This includes any "young" asset like Jenkins, E-Rod, Festa or SWR.

I'm nitpicking here, but even though Jax had a great season last year (and the year before that) I would switch him and Duran in the #10/#11 spots. Duran is 3-years younger and he's the 104 mph beast that is our closer. I think Eddie Julien is a prime trade piece with Lee, Lewis and Keaschall all ahead of him and his value still decent. One more poor season out of Julien and his value will crater. With someone like Culpepper coming up behind him, Eeles and whoever we draft 1st, 2nd, 3rd in June, Julien to help us get a young catcher prospect or a LH arm for the rotation or bullpen. I would be looking for a trade opportunity.

Am I missing something? We have the maximum amount of international signing money ($7.55 million). I guess we have zero chance of signing the closest player to a "sure thing" in Roki Sasaki, but whoever gets him will probably have to blow their entire signing pool money, leaving some good potential talent available to sign... And the highest rated prospect we are in on is ranked 24th?!?!? Plus, we have two SS's and an OF. Who is the highest ranked catcher?? Do we have no interest in any highly ranked catchers? I'm pretty sure when we signed Emmanuel Rodriguez he wasn't the 24th rated prospect. If the 24th, 26th and 43rd ranked prospects are the expectations for the Twins why not just go all in on Roki Sasaki? With the money we have, shouldn't we have a shot at someone in the top 5 ??

I'm surprised that Seattle's rotation wouldn't be right there with the Dodgers and Twins (Castillo, Kirby and Gilbert with Bryce Miller and Brian Woo holding down #4 & #5). In fact, I can't believe Seattle isn't #1. I think the Twins have plenty of talent to compete and I think Cleveland is worse without Gimenez and Naylor at 2B & 1B. Yes, they have some highly thought of prospects moving into those spots although Manzardo will probably DH more with Santana at 1B. But I think Santana is primed for a fall off a cliff and we in Minnesota are all to familiar with the mercurial nature of Rookies (Julien, Lee, Lewis). There are highs...and there are lows. As good as Clase is, can he come close to repeating his phenomenal 2024 in 2025? And how about the rest of Cleveland's BP?? Sure seems like there could be some regression. So yes, I think we can compete if we don't make any moves. Especially if one of those moves is trading Pablo Lopez or Carlos Correa. But we have an unbalanced roster with noticeable question marks at 3B, 2B and 1B and maybe a RH hitting OF (although I would personally like to see Wallner, Larnach and eventually E-Rod get AB's against LHP). Where Lewis lands will determine where Lee lands. I'm O.K. with Miranda at 1B. I wonder how much time Julien will get to learn 1B with the signing of Ford and acquisition of Gasper. I'm really curious what will be done with Keaschall and Eales if Castro is traded. If it was up to me, I'd just roll with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Festa and SWR with Zebby in reserve. I hope Funderburk can bounce back but I'd feel better if they landed someone impactful as a LH relief pitcher. If cutting payroll is paramount than I just dump Paddack for whatever to trim $7.5 million. I think Cleveland is due for some regression unless Tristen McKenzie and Shane Bieber are healthy and pitching like they were 3 years ago. If Detroit gets Bregman I'm worried. The Tigers have been moving with a purpose this off season. The Royals scare me because they've got Bobby Witt Jr. He's a level of AWESOME that nobody on our team comes close to. So yes, if we make no moves at all, I can live with that because that means Pablo is still leading our rotation, Correa is still our SS and Duran is still our closer. But I would like to see a couple moves made that don't involve any of those 3 guys.

I'm with you on this Doc Gast. Last season, the Twins were in the drivers seat for a Wild Card spot but the engine light was on and screaming at the driver (our FO) that attention was needed. "Prospect Hugging" is a great way to put it. Plenty of trades get made without giving up the prime prospects a team has. Puk's value was way down because of the failed SP experiment and then he struggled at the outset of his move back to the pen. His value literally cratered. I'm always amused by the criticism of BBTV. Of course it's not the be all and end all. But it at least gives regular guys like us who are not privy to the rankings of players throughout every organization in MLB "SOME" kind of idea of what a reasonable trade could look like. Some of our mid-tier prospects could have been packaged to make a better deadline acquisition than Trevor Richards. There is no way anyone can put lipstick on the pig that was our FO's ultimate move when that engine light was screaming that disaster was imminent. It's like holding out for a "better prospect" for Chris Paddack. Waiting isn't going to see any kind of major upgrade on the prospect we will ultimately get for Paddack. His entire $7.5 million dollar salary should have been cleared at the Winter Meetings. If the Twins are to have any hope that a Profar signing or Mountcastle/Yandy Diaz trade gets completed nothing can get started until that first payroll slashing domino falls. And the easiest domino is Paddack. On the one hand, I admire what our FO has been able to do in building a pitching pipeline to the big leagues as well as position player prospects like Jenkins, E-Rod, Keaschall, Winokur and guys that have already been with the Twins like Lewis, Wallner, Lee, Miranda, Julien, Martin, Larnach, Jeffers and more. But acting decisively has never been a strong suit of this FO. They constantly wait until opportunity after opportunity passes them by. Maybe that mindset will change with new ownership. Or maybe they will never get the chance because new ownership wants their own people in place.

I agree a little but disagree a little with Linus. We do have a pretty good 1-2-3 in our rotation and young guns like Festa, SWR and Zebby Matthews who could take big steps forward. Griffin Jax is a Wild Card. I think he could make the transition to starting pitcher and be pretty good, but he's pretty darn good coming out of the bullpen, that's for sure. I'm not buying Fangraphs #1 bullpen, but I'm hopeful the Twins have a top 5. I agree that hitters like Lewis, Wallner, Miranda and Larnach need to take the next step and Linus threw in Jeffers as well. But for the Twins to challenge for the division or a Wild Card spot, they need Correa and Buxton to be healthy and productive. Yes, the young bucks need to step up, especially Lewis, because he's the most impactful. I rank Wallner as the next most impactful young bat because if he gets 475-550 AB's and has an OPS of .800 THAT'S IMPACTFUL. I think in addition to the self imposed $130 million dollar payroll, this FO and ownership remains very committed to the players on the current roster. Adding Yandy Diaz or Ryan Mountcastle in a trade would be interesting. But you could also feel that Miranda could give you similar production at 1B. Right now, I view 2B as the Black Hole. I'm not sure how committed the Twins are to Lewis at 2B, but if it helps him stay healthy, it will be a big plus offensively. I'm almost more inclined to see Brooks Lee at 3B or 2B which takes either of those off the table for Lewis. I have little confidence in Julien right now. His glove is still suspect and his once interesting offensive potential took a big hit last year. Luke Keaschall probably won't break camp with the team, but the idea of adding him sometime this summer to play 2B, 1B, LF, maybe even a little CF is interesting. E-Rod will certainly be up at some point as well. Both of those young guys could inject some "juice" into the Twins lineup. Free Agency will simply not happen this year with the current ownership group. But there is still talent in the minor leagues and major league roster that could be leveraged in a couple trades to improve the "balance" of our talent.

The only reason I would give up somebody classified as a slightly better than "marginal" prospect would be to gamble on the upside of adding a player at a position that the Twins seem VERY THIN...CATCHER. Camargo by all accounts had garnered interest because of his bat. Not his glove. That was always the shortcoming of Jair Camargo. He was a marginal catcher, but he had a big bat. After struggling last year, Camargo needs to regain his "Thunder" to get back to being a relevant prospect. But my impression of him is that he's still deficient as a catcher. Cartaya seems to be a decent to good catcher, whose once promising bat has seen 2 consecutive seasons of a massive falloff of what his potential once was. I can't name the specific prospect I would offer, but if, as Doc Gast says, his value on BBTV has fallen to the mid 2's, I'd offer a prospect in the 2.0-2.5 range. If that prospect is a run of the mill 2B or OF we're much better off taking the risk of adding a catcher like Cartaya. First and foremost, it seems Cartaya just needs to regain his confidence. A change of scenery to the Twins, an organization crying out for catching prospects just may be what Cartaya needs.

The news on Cartaya is VERY interesting. The word on Cartaya is that he struggled mightily in AA (Tulsa). He hit .189 .278 .379 in 93 games. Evaluators in 2022 thought his hit tool was much better than it actually was, as is often the case with hitters in the low minors. In AA at Tulsa, his swing was far too long and his hitting mechanics fell apart. Sliders down and away just killed him. BBTV's has dropped his "value" all the way to 4.3. That's dirt cheap. For an organization that is bereft of ANY high potential catching prospects this screams "GET A DEAL DONE WITH THE DODGERS !!" NOW !! It's likely that with the catching position locked up for the foreseeable future in L.A. and the rise of Rushing in the system, Cartaya just tried to do too much, got in a rut, and it ate him alive in 2024. The Twins should make a minor deal and bring him in and show him we will be patient in getting him back on track. His defensive skills didn't fall apart...his hitting did. He very well could see a resurgence in 2025 but the Dodgers don't have the patience for that. This is an opportunity the Twins should exploit. There is no guarantee the shine will come back, but this seems a lot like when the Twins picked up Shane Mack for a song and the gamble paid off. Cartaya is just 23 years old. He's got time on his side. The Dodgers signing Hyeseong Kim for 3 years probably kills any interest they would have had in Willi Castro. I admit, the idea of adding Rushing's bat always appealed to me. But he may very well push his way into the Dodgers lineup primary as a LF and eventual possible replacement at 1B for Freddie Freeman (provided Freddie ever shows signs of slowing down). A long term spot as a catcher on the Dodgers is not likely for Rushing.