TopGunn#22

I'm just not really interested in adding 35 year old guys who, while they supply a "floor" for performance, don't really have much in the way of "upside." I'd rather see our young guys to what they can do. If you're willing to accept mediocre you will BE mediocre. Absent a Paddack for Mountcastle trade or a SWR and Paddack for Casas trade, assuming the Twins trade Paddack for "something" and shed his $7.5 million, I'd rather see a trade with Tampa for Yandy Diaz. Maybe Yandy Diaz (23.4) for SWR (19.9) straight up would work.

First, I think many here are undervaluing Casas. There is a reason he's valued on BBTV at 28.3 and guys like Julien and Miranda are valued at 16.5. The power with Casas is legit. He's a 30 HR guy, maybe more as he matures. He is NOT a "good" 1B. But is he "adequate?" There is no way I trade Ryan or Ober for him and as someone on here posted the BBTV's for each and they are far beyond the value of Casas. Where I differ with a few on here is a trade of SWR for Casas. BBTV would indicate the Twins throw in a Billy Amick/Kaelon Culpepper level prospect to complete the deal. But with young, controllable pitching being so valuable, Casas at 28.3 and SWR at 19.9 seems fair to me. According to BBTV the Twins won the Lopez for Arraez trade by a mile. So I think the 8 point gap in the Casas trade would be reasonable. I believe Festa is superior to SWR. I think Matthews is as well. Trading SWR does NOT cripple the rotation and it adds a power bat to a lineup that could use some additional thunder. Maybe the trade is SWR (19.9) and Paddack (3.7) for Casas (28.3). That gives Boston a little more pitching depth as Paddack could spot start and pitch out of the pen, and the Twins trim $7.5 million from our payroll and could use that money elsewhere. I would like to see the Twins add some thunder to their lineup. I can live live with Casas in the above stated package or Mountcastle in a trade for Paddack and a low level prospect. Mountcastle brings better defense and a decent bat, but not the thunder that Casas does.

I appreciate this article and do not feel it offers only comedic value. It's winter in Minnesota. This is the Hot Stove. Articles like this are precisely why we come to TD. The writer isn't trying to answer all questions. He's giving us a topic and all of us can chime in with a "take." I have incomplete BBTV data because I refuse to pay for the site. However, in my notes, I've listed Casas as having a value of 29.9 for the sake of discussion. I also do not have values for Ryan or Ober but in no circumstance would I give up either of them for a "bat only" 1B. I imagine this is why Seattle rebuffed the Red Sox on multiple occasions. I also do not have the value for SWR. But if Festa is a 20.0 and Zebby Matthews is a 16.0 I would place SWR at 18.0. That's who I would begin discussions with Boston. So to come up with a deal, the Twins would need another 12 points of value. I have advocated exploring trade options for SWR a number of times this off season. He's solid and steady, but doesn't have the upside of Festa. The Red Sox rotation as it stands today is Crochet, Houck, Bello, Buehler and Kutter Crawford. There are questions surrounding each of their #3, #4 and #5 guys. They also have very little depth, with a huge injury question mark surrounding Lucas Giolito. SWR would be just what they are looking for. Someone solid and dependable for the #3-#5 spot in the rotation. SWR is only 24 years old. Paddack only has a value of 3.7 so that just wouldn't be enough. The Red Sox #2 rated prospect is a 2B, so they wouldn't be interested in Julien (16.5) and he and Miranda (16.2) would be an overpay unless the Red Sox sent something else back to even up the trade. But I like the idea of putting a 25 year old slugger in the middle of our lineup. Casas has a similar offensive profile to Matt Wallner. But with Correa, Buxton and Lewis, there are plenty of RH hitters to split them up. If the price to get Casas is NOT Ryan or Ober and begins with SWR, I'm all for it.

No Way. Not cutting Canterino until I'm SURE he will never be healthy. Certainly not as long as some guys have options. This actually sets up a pretty good scenario. The obvious "odd man out" is Funderburk. But...what if he is light out in spring training? He's got a lively fastball and pretty good sweeper, but his health has slowed him down. If Funderburk is dealing in spring training he allows the Twins to have TWO lefty's out of the pen. I think we will see Varland thrive in a bullpen role as well. Now that it appears he's destined to the pen, I think he settles in. That leaves Castellano. We could always work out a trade with Philly if we really like what we see in spring training, but aside from that, he's in a pretty precarious position. Tonkin is the next guy on the shakiest ground. I think the investment in acquiring Topa (trading Polanco) means the Twins would like to see what Topa can contribute if he's healthy. For $2.5 million, I like this move. Coulombe could be the 2nd coming of Theilbar.

This is interesting. We KNOW the Twins have talent and there are a number of players primed for a comeback/bounce back that could power the team forward. Jocko laid out the betting lines and yes, while they hedge, hedge, hedge, it's very easy to see where they're projecting a fierce 4-team pennant race with the White Sox dwelling in the cellar. I'm expecting a fierce pennant race. Cleveland's bullpen won't be AS GOOD as they were in 2024. They were EPIC. They will probably still be good, but not THAT good. Their offense is missing Naylor and Gimenez. I look for the Tigers to be the prime competition. Adding Flaherty to Skubal was a great move. The Tigers have emerging hitters that will probably show improvement. The Royals have the head and shoulders best player in the division and maybe the American League in Bobby Witt and a bona fide Ace in Cole Ragans. But I don't think 34 year old Seth Lugo can repeat his 2024 and their rotation and bullpen is a little thin. Our Hot Stove ain't so hot right now, but maybe we will make a deal that will improve the team for 2025 and beyond. If not, the Twins still have enough talent to win the division if they play more like 2023 and half of 2024 than they did for the last two months of 2024.

I understand the need for "flexibility." Injuries, ineffective play, they all contribute to juggling your lineup as the season unfolds. Maybe I'm far too old fashioned, but I don't think baseball has changed a lot since the time I grew up (1960's & 1970's). Yes, there are "launch angels and spin rates, but those were apparent in those days too. Maybe there are more injuries. It sure seems that way at times but ENTIRE infields and outfields do not need to be "interchangeable." The "Big Red Machine" of the 1970's had a fairly consistent, set lineup. Same with the Baltimore Orioles of the mid 1960's-1970's. There was usually a bench guy who could fill in at SS, 2B & 3B and an OF who could play all three positions. But the infield of Rose, Concepcion, Morgen and Perez was set. Doug Flynn was the SS, 2B, 3B guy and Dan Driessen played 1B and the OF. Ed Armbrister covered all 3 OF spots. It was very similar with the Orioles. The idea that guys need to be comfortable with what their role is, where they play, where they hit in the batting order is tried and true. Disruption brings uneven results. I think Lewis's BAT is crucial to the Twins success. I'm in favor of playing him WHEREVER he feels comfortable. Other guys can adjust to him based on his offensive potential. The guy was once said to have a cannon for an arm. Tommy John surgery shouldn't result in him having a wet noodle now. I think his "base" was hampering his throwing last season. His hip abductor or whatever the injury was. I think 2B is a position that the Twins have a plethora of options. Lee would be my primary to begin with if Lewis is at 3B. Julien is on thin ice. His bat needs to wake up. He was one of the most frustrating major league hitters to watch last year I can ever remember. Honestly, at this time, with Keaschall and Eeles pushing, I'd be very willing to include Julien in a trade that would have impact if another team was eager to take him. Culpepper is also a future 2B option. The depth the Twins have in their system with guys who could play there is what allowed the Twins to move on from a fading Polanco. But to me, Lewis is the key. I really don't have a preference where he ends up. 3B, 2B, 1B, it doesn't matter. Wherever he's comfortable and bringing that BIG STICK to the plate is where he'll be. If the Twins are going to challenge for the division and make any kind of run in the playoffs, Lewis needs to be in the heart of that lineup and hitting HR's and driving in runs. We need to see 30 HR and 100 RBI's from Lewis in 2025. His bat is the future of what I hope will be a potent lineup in 2025 and beyond when Walker Jenkins, E-Rod and Luke Keaschall are in there with him.

I agree with Lambchop. It's something I've complained about with Rocco consistently since he became our manager. Rocco needs to define specific roles for each member of his bullpen. I never cared for Tony LaRussa, but the guy knew how to define roles and stuck to it. Duran needs to CLOSE. Cleveland never taps Clase in the 7th inning. Jax is the 8th inning guy. If you need to get out of a 2 out jam in the 7th, bring Jax in to put out the fire and send him back out for the 8th. Alcala IS much better in one inning stints. I'm interested to see how Canterino could be used if he could ever stay healthy and make it to the big leagues. I'm interested to see if Raya can make it to the Twins and use him in the pen once he makes it up to limit his innings/pitches. Same with Prielipp. We have some guys who will be hit or miss (Tonkin, Topa, Castellano, Varland, Funderburk) who could be replaced by one of the 3 guys listed above could replace. Stewart and Funderburk could be pretty good...or not. There will be plenty of occasions where the Twins will need an arm or two for a spurt. And there may still be some trades made that could send an arm and bring back an arm that could mix things up. But I like having Duran and Jax at the back end. I just hope Rocco defines roles and uses his pitchers accordingly.

This was a good article because it highlighted something that I believe has always frustrated the majority of us Twins fans posting here. I have nothing against being "patient" "prudent" or "thrifty." What DOES frustrate me is any lack of urgency or identification of a specific player who could help the Twins and the will to go after that player. Without fail, we get statements of "we've had some discussions" or "there is interest there" only to never hear a solitary word later about said player. I know the Baseball Players Union will never accept a salary cap, but they actually have, in a fashion, due to the luxury tax. One thing a hard cap does establish is the ability of any team in pro football to have a specific amount of money they can and will spend on their roster. For example, the Vikings have a need in the interior offensive line and at CB. They will address those needs in some way through free agency. It is the hope from every one of us that with new ownership, there will finally come a time where a player in FA will be identified and pursued by the Twins. There are some thrifty moves that can pay nice dividends by signing a player at a slight discount late in the process. But there are times that a player should be identified early, and if necessary paid slightly more if what he brings to the team truly shores up a weak position or rotation spot. Under the Pohlad regime, it's almost as if our FO felt they could skip the first 30-minutes of class and still get a C- and pass the class. I'd like them to show up early for class and go for an "A" or at least a solid "B." I've just never been a fan of the passive attitude the Twins under the Pohlad family took toward building their roster. Be smart. Be wise. But don't be PASSIVE. Don't relegate yourselves to "Dumpster Diving."

I don't trade Lewis until of seen what I get out of him in 2025. it was not that long ago we were discussing him as the cornerstone of the franchise moving forward. The Padres have nothing in their OF beyond Tatis Jr. and Merrill. I have suggested trading Vasquez, Larnach and Chris Paddack, and either Miranda or Julien in a package to the Padres for Cease and Luis Arraez (and maybe adding Campusano, their current starting catcher who is 26 years old if they would include him). This trade would add $10 million to the Twins current salary structure, but it would add a bona fide Ace to the rotation and solve the 1B problem (Arraez) for 2025. Both Cease and Arraez are FA after this season. I would not be acquiring Cease with the intent of trading Lopez. But I WOULD consider using someone like SWR in a deal to get a young catcher who is close to being MLB ready. There is always the chance that in acquiring Cease, new ownership would sign him to an extension. But that is far from a guarantee. That's why I'm not trading Pablo Lopez. A rotation of Cease, Pablo, Ryan and Ober with Festa as #5 wouldn't just be the best in the A.L. Central. It would be Top Five in MLB. Arraez would also look good hitting leadoff for the Twins. The Padres need to cut payroll. They would do this because they would be cutting $28-$29 million from their payroll and adding about $18 million. They would be adding a badly needed LF, a starting catcher, a swing arm in Paddack and a replacement at 1B for Arraez (either Miranda or Julien). The Twins would have a bit of a hole in LF but that could be filled by Willi Castro or a FA signing like Austin Hayes or would accelerate the promotion of E-Rod. Any of these are acceptable outcomes for me.

Or the deal could be expanded T&R to include someone like Arraez who the Padres are also heavily rumored to be interested in dealing, to shed the final year of his $14 million dollar contract. If the deal was for Cease and Arraez that would bring $27,75 million in payroll to the Twins. Sending Vasquez and Paddack, (along with Larnach) with the Padres taking all of that back nets the Padres a full $10 million dollar payroll cut and provides them with a starting LF, starting catcher and swing arm for the rotation and BP. Jeferson Quero has a 22.7 BBTV. Depending on what SWR's BBTV is I would deal him and whatever else it took to the Brewers for Quero. He's blocked by All Star Willam Contreras as well as Gary Sanchez. I think SWR and a little something else (depending on what SWR's value is) could net the Twins Quero. Giving up some major league talent, some minor league talent (not named Keaschall, Rodriguez or Festa) and taking on about $10 million in salary with new ownership coming on the near horizon, to add Dylan Cease to the rotation and Luis Arraez at the top of our order and playing 1B is reasonable and worth it to expect for the 2025 season. What comes in 2026 is completely unknown. But this much IS known. E-Rod, Keaschall and Jenkins will all be one year further in their development as will Festa, Matthews, Lee, Lewis, Miranda and Wallner. The Twins will have a better idea of what they have in Eeles, Helman and Kiersey. If I'm the Falvey/Zoll FO I'm pretty sure the expectation of the new owners is to make the post season. It would also be reasonable to expect some kind of "acceptable" showing in the post season (in other words, something other than a 1st round sweep elimination). I have the chance to add an Ace to the rotation and bring a fan favorite back to Minnesota who would fill the hole at 1B, and it might COST $10 million in additional 2025 payroll, some MLB players who I can afford to deal, and a minor leaguer NOT named Jenkins, E-Rod or Keaschall. I am getting this DONE. The Pohlad's and Ishbia's are certainly in communication about any deals that would add payroll for 2025, but for all we hold sacred...Make this trade. (once I know what SWR's value is of course) because if I deal Vasquez, while I don't think doom hovers over the 2025 the season over a backup catcher, I still want to fill that hole adequately.

Getting back on to the topic of a possible trade between the Twins and the Padres...I've read thru everyone's comments. I've agreed whole heartedly with some, agreed in part with others, disagreed with some takes, in other words the entire gambit. Here's my 2-cents worth, which will be similar to Matthew's OTHER article about the Twins needing to trade a LH hitting OF...Now. The Twins have more than enough firepower to make a deal with the Padres and they should have the motivation. The Padres are an excellent match and both teams could fulfill a LOT of what their concerns have been this off season. For much of this off season we on TD have assumed that the primary goal of the Pohlad family has been to further cut payroll. Then came the news of a potential sale. Then came further news of a sale being completed much sooner than any of us had expected. So it is MY belief that Derek Falvey and Jeremy Zoll are now in a somewhat fluid, different situation. The Pohlad's have to know that whatever payroll is added to the Twins will be someone else's issue and will have little to zero effect on the final sale price of the team. San Diego needs to cut salary yet they still want to compete with the Dodgers in the N.L. West. After all, they have Fernado Tatis, Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts. The Twins still have the best overall talent in the A.L. Central. Their biggest issue is that their 3 biggest star hitters, Correa, Buxton and Lewis have a bit of an injury history. That makes their offense inconsistent because the status of 3 big bats are consistently in question. But the chance to add a top of the rotation SP who will make $13.75 million in 2025 when the going rate for a pitcher of his worth is $30 million should be very tempting to a FO who needs to make a blockbuster trade that would solidify their status to remain in their positions in 2026 with new ownership. Look, if the Twins do not make the playoffs in 2025 with the talent currently on their roster what motivation do the Ishbia brothers have to keep Falvey/Zoll around?? The Twins also have a chance to move some of their payroll headaches to the Padres AND add Cease if they are aggressive and creative. Sending Vasquez and Paddack to the Padres in a deal is a no-brainer. The key is sending something else you can afford to be without in 2025 and beyond that has value to the Padres. That would be Trevor Larnach. In Matthew's other article about trading either Wallner or Larnach he suggested a couple teams. But neither of them were the Padres. The Padres, after Jurickson Profar just signed with the Braves have literally NOBODY to play LF. In fact, after Jackson merrill and Fernando Tatis they have nobody in their OF. They NEED and would WANT Trevor Larnach. I would give Larnach up in a deal to get Cease. Especially if I was able to shed Vasquez and Paddack at the same time. I would offer Larnach (22.6 BBTV) Vasquez (-4.1) and Paddack (unknown BBTV) for Cease ($13.75 million) Luis Arraez ($14 million) and Luis Campusano ($1 million). The Twins would be sending roughly $19 million to the Padres. The Twins would be taking back $29 million. All of which is only on the books for 2025. I need help to see what the value of Cease with one year of control, Arraez with one year of control and Campusano a 26 year old catcher with one year of control would have in BBTV to see how close this deal would be. If I had to include a young pitcher, which may not be needed based on the Padres minor league pitching prospects I would consider SWR (unknown) or Matthews (16.0). If they wanted a young hitter I would consider Julien (16.5) or a lower level candidate NOT named E-Rod or Keaschall. Jenkins is off the table as well. I also do this deal because even with FA looming for Cease, with new ownership, we could work out an extension with Cease. Even if the twins were to lose Cease (and that would probably happen if he has a great year and just can't resist the FA opportunity) that would mean the Twins won the trade BIG TIME and it would give Festa, Raya, Morris and any other young pitcher we had one more year of development. How excited would YOU be for the Twins in 2025 if we opened the season with Lopez, Cease, Ryan, Ober and Festa as our rotation and Luis Arraez at the top of our order playing 1B with Jeffers splitting the catching duties with Campusano, a 26 year catcher with one full season behind the plate with the Padres under his belt? We would have Campusano for the year while Cartaya and Camargo have another year to develop at St. Paul as well as all those young minor league pitchers. The Twins would not be responsible for any of the $29 million taken on with this trade after the 2025 season. It would be up to the new ownnership and the FO to determine if they wanted Cease, Arraez and Campusano back, and at what price. Some have said the Twins still wouldn't contend even if they added Cease. REALLY? Others have said "we need hitting, we already have a solid rotation." What is the FIRST Commandment of Baseball?? "Thou shalt never have enough GOOD pitching...especially good STARTING PITCHING." (Thus sayeth the "Baseball Gods.") THAT rotation would be brutal for other teams to face. We all hope for good health with our rotation in 2025 but that kind of talent and depth could overcome a bump in the road or two. If the lineup remained healthy this could be a very special Twins team. If there were some injuries, that starting rotation and bullpen could win a lot of close games. I would be pretty excited if a trade like I've described could be pulled off in the near future. I'd like some guys who have access to BBTV to post on TD what a trade with San Diego could realistically look like if we were to acquire Cease, Arraez and Campusano and we were trading Vasquez, Paddack and Larnach. What else would be needed? What is SWR's BBTV? I know Festa is at 20.0. Julien at 16.5. Miranda at 16.2. Walker Jenkins at 64. Keaschall at 23. But I don't know what Vasquez or Paddack are. I don't know what SWR, Brooks Lee or E-Rod or Wallner are. What else would it take? We are stressing on here about the disaster our season could be if we trade our backup catcher. In my trade, we bring back a 26 year old to split time with Jeffers, but what if San Diego won't include Profar because they want to pair him with Vasquez? Then I make a deal without Campusano but I pivot to a deal with Milwaukee for Jeferson Quero. Maybe offering SWR and Julien. I'm a little skeptical of SWR in 2025. If I have to trade him to obtain a young, major league ready catcher as part of adding Cease and Arraez I'm all for it. Especially if that puts Festa at #5 behind a rotation of Lopez, Cease, Ryan and Ober.

I appreciate the article Matthew, but it just seems like you're way off in making your case. I will allow that there is a certain degree of similarity in Larnach and Wallner. They are both LH hitters, play a corner OF spot and hit with power (in the case of Wallner, a LOT of power). I don't disagree with the idea that the Twins could trade one of them to bring something back of real value. I'm always interested in a trade that makes the team BETTER. And I don't think you mean for the Twins to just give Larnach away either, but the teams you mentioned are not good trade partners. You wrote this on Wednesday night. I don't know why I'm finally seeing it on Friday morning, but I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you didn't know Profar had just signed with the Braves yesterday. But if I was looking for a trade partner for Larnach I know the first team I would be calling. We've just seen the news drop and articles written about the Twins and Padres having interest in making a deal. Christian Vasquez could be heading to the Padres and according to Puckett's Pond, the Twins are interested in RHP Dylan Cease. THAT got my attention !! And after commenting on this article I plan to read the "Dylan Cease Trade Rumor" on TD. What made me flinch regarding the trade for Cease was who else, other than Vasquez could be heading to the Padres. Zebby Matthews and LUKE KEASCHALL. Reading Keaschall's name made a sound like a stylus sliding across an album in my brain. I don't want that kid traded under ANY circumstance. He will be in a Twins uniform by the All Star break and I think he will be up to stay. But you know what San Diego needs desperately after Profar signed with the Braves?? Someone to play LF. ESPN's depth chart has the projected LF for the Padres listed as Tucupita Marcano, who was suspended from MLB baseball FOREVER for betting on 387 baseball games from July thru November in 2022. The only other possibility is Oscar Mercado a 30 year old with a "thin resume." BBTV's has Keachall's value listed as 23.0 and Larnach's listed as 22.6. Zebby Matthew is listed at 16.0. I only know this because I go there to see what some of the suggested trades are and make a note of a players value when I think it will come in handy sometime. I don't know what Cease is valued at or their current catcher Luis Campusano but here would be my deal. Trevor Larnach 22.6 and Christian Vasquez -4.1 for Dylan Cease. Cease is in the final year of his contract, so he could very well be a one year rental for the Twins but he's a solid SP with real strikeout stuff. He's 29 years old and went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA and 224 K's last year. He started 33 games and threw over 189 innings. Lopez, Ryan, Cease, Ober. That's is a Kicka$$ first 4. I still like Festa more than SWR for the #5 spot but a trade like I suggested makes the Twins BETTER. One could always hope that Cease could be signed to an extension. SP's like him usually are making $30 million per year. Cease will pitch in 2025 for a salary of $13.75. Moving Vasquez and Larnach in the deal is close to a net zero salary increase. With new ownership on the near horizon for the Twins, how about making a BIG splash? The Padres are looking to trim some payroll, so how about taking another $14 million off their payroll and adding Luis Arraez to the deal? Add another $1 million for Luis Campusano. The Twins could add Chris Paddack to the deal as well as Jose Miranda (16.2) or Eddie Julien (16.5). The New Trade: Larnach (22.6) Vasquez -4.1, Paddack (?) and Miranda/Julien (16.5). Total Value around 35.0 with Paddack an unknown (someone who pays for the right to use BBTV help me on this). Twins get: Cease $14 million, Arraez $14 million, Campusano $1 million. Both Cease and Arraez are signed only thru 2025. They are FA's in 2026. Total salary sent out approx. $19 million. Total additional cost for the Twins $10 million. To be a legit contender in 2025, the additional $10 million could be agreed upon between the Pohlad's and the Ishbia brothers. Twins lineup: Arraez 1B Lee 2B Lewis 3B Correa SS Castro LF Buxton CF Wallner RF DH-Rotating. The Twins could accelerate the promotion of E-Rod and/or sign someone like Austin Hayes. Keaschall will be up at some point. Campusano splits catching with Jeffers. Kiersey begins as 4th OF. Perhaps Payton Eeles is part of the utility IF. Rotation: Lopez, Ryan, Cease, Ober, SWR/Festa. BP led by Duran & Jax. I will mention this again: Go to ESPN or CBS Sports or wherever you normally go to check a team's Depth Chart and see who the Padres have in their OF other than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merrill. It's literally nobody. They NEED Larnach. They are looking to cut payroll and are willing to consider dealing Cease. Taking back Arraez (welcome back Luis! Are you ready to win a 4th straight batting title??). in addition to Cease while sending San Diego Vasquez and Paddack (are the Padres ready for a reunion as well?) allows for shedding some significant payroll for both clubs. Cease, Arraez, Vasquez and Paddack are all under contract for only the 2025 season. No commitments beyond that. Padres get a young hitter (Larnach) and another young hitter (Miranda/Julien). Twins get Cease and Arraez for one year, maybe longer and Campusano, a 26 year old catcher with some flaws but some potential. I would prefer to deal Julien because unless he becomes a 1B he has no future with all the potential 2B the Twins have and it leaves Miranda to rotate between DH/1B/3B. But I'd part with Miranda just for the chance to add Cease to the rotation.

2B was the focal point of my comments in Seth's series of comments regarding how the A.L. Central teams stack up, position by position. All of us, as ardent Twins fans, really have no idea who will be playing at 2B, 3B or 1B in our infield. I can't remember anything like this in all my years as a Twins fan, going back to the 1960's. Castro is the ultimate fallback, but the fact that Gregg came up with such a LONG list is interesting. There are many good candidates, but no one who is the clear cut guy. And whatever happens with 2B will also affect 3B and to a certain degree, 1B. I do not think it's too early to be considering guys like Keaschall and Eeles. Keaschall may be prevented from playing 2B for half the season or the entire season, but one thing is quite clear, the kid is going to push for a major league spot. And soon. Payton Eeles may be nothing more than a one-year flash in the pan. Lord knows baseball has seen them on the major league and minor league since the game began. But there's always the chance Eeles is the next Dustin Pedroia. You just never know. But here we are, mere days from pitchers and catchers reporting, and not one of us ardent Twins fans can with any certainty tell us who is going to be playing where. And that concerns me. We could end up being just fine. But like I've said, I've never seen a Twins team on the verge of spring training in a situation like this.

I'm not really a fan of Vasquez but most of it is attributable to his contract. $10 million a year for 3 years was a major over pay by Falvey. I also have never been sold on Jeffers either. He's too inconsistent offensively and while he's shown SOME improvement defensively he's not winning a Gold Glove anytime, ever. So I'll play devils advocate in the thread: With this being the last year of Vasquez's contract, see if he would take a 1 or 2 year extension at $4-4.5 million per year for 2026/2027 and trade Ryan Jeffers. The Twins will get a LOT more back for Jeffers than they will for Vasquez. I just don't see Jeffers as the "Catcher of the Future." Keep Vasquez for a season (2026) or two (2027) at a reduced rate and let him mentor Cartaya/Camargo. It's looking to me like there is not a MANDATE to cut any more salary, at least with a sale looming. The Twins won't receive much salary savings in trading Vasquez either. Jeffers has a BBTV of 16.2. He is somewhat affordable. What could the Twins get back from, say, the Miami Marlins for Vasquez?? The Marlins have the worst offensive output of any MLB team from their catchers. They would probably LOVE to have Jeffers. If it was up to me, I'd be on the phone with Miami and throwing some names around.

We are not talking Johnny Bench, Joe Mauer or Roy Campanella here. We're talking Christian Vasquez. We would be fine with him if he was making $3-$5 million. But we signed him to a 3-year, $30 million dollar contract and he hits like the bat is a wet noodle. Vasquez is replaceable. This is why there is always so much talk about still having to pay half his $10 million dollar salary if we were ever able to move him. I still think the Red Sox or Marlins would pick the whole $10 million up if we dealt him for a low level, lottery ticket prospect or a vet with a contract that would be somewhat similar to Vasquez. The problem internally that the Twins have in replacing Vasquez is that Cartaya and Camargo, two young catchers who showed the potential to be good hitting catchers, have both seen the luster of their offensive potential take a hit these last 2 minor league seasons. Their hitting is trending DOWNWARD, not upward. It doesn't exactly inspire confidence. If Vasquez were traded and Cartaya or Camargo had to split time with Jeffers, that would not be "catastrophic." What would be "catastrophic" would be injuries to Correa and Buxton that keep them out 100 games or more. It would be Lewis hitting more like 2024 and nothing like 2023. It would be Wallner and Larnach talking steps backward instead of forward. It would be Lee looking overmatched. It would be multiple pitching injuries. There are players far more impactful to the Twins success or lack thereof than Vasquez, no matter how well he frames a pitch here and there. I don't mean to minimize the importance of a competent defensive catcher, but come on. The Twins 2025 season does not hang in the balance because of Christian Vasquez.

Johan Santana began his Twins career as a Rule 5 pick out of the BP. I think guys like Doc Gast and Lambchop and others who mention Prielipp and Canterino in the same breath are on the same wave-length as me. I see two young guys (Prielipp the younger) who have electric stuff but health hurdles. Moving them to the BP is not a guarantee of health, but it IS a way to carefully manage their pitches/innings. I also do not believe that either of them needs to spend a LOT more time in the minors polishing this, and refining that. Yes, they do need some time down there, neither of them will break camp with the Twins, but the idea of having Canterino up some time in May and Prielipp after the All Star Game (if healthy and doing well) is a plan I wholeheartedly endorse. And the idea that if either of them starts in the BP with the Twins, they will never, ever be a SP is being proven wrong more and more with guys like Crochet, Lugo, Reynaldo Lopez, Hicks etc...Heck, the Twins even considered moving Griffin Jax. Starting off in the BP is not a death sentence. But it can be a quicker ticket to the Big Leagues. I remember a pitcher with the Twins when I was a kid named Tommy Hall. He was REALLY slender, so they nicknamed him "The Blade." In 1969 he made a couple of spot starts for the Twins when Dean Chance battled some injuries. In 1970, he was set to be in the BP again (he really had swing and miss stuff). Luis Tiant when down after 10 starts and 20-game winner Dave Boswell just couldn't reclaim his 1969 magic. So the Twins called up a very young Bert Blyleven to replace Boswell in the rotation and moved Hall in to replace Tiant. Hall threw 155 innings, K'd 184 guys (184 !!) and won 11 games. Once again, a guy who was brought up who had started in the minor leagues was fast tracked to the big leagues as a relief pitcher, but found himself in the rotation eventually. Bringing a guy up and starting him out in the pen doesn't mean that is the only outcome.

Excellent point Indiana Twin. Cleveland's BP was EPIC last year. Clase had a year few closers have ever had. That his WAR was just 2.1 amazes me. But it wasn't just Clase, a LOT of guys in Cleveland's pen were absolutely outstanding. Cade Smith especially. There is a strong chance Cleveland's BP will still be good, but could also have some significant regression. They were THAT good. You could say the same about Griffin Jax. He was really good last year. Can he do it again? I think so because he was pretty solid in 2023 as well. There may be a slight regression from Jax, but he will still be good. I look for Duran to bounce back and be dominant again. I'm just not confident Rocco will use him exclusively as the CLOSER. That's how Cleveland uses Clase. That's what I think Rocco needs to do with Duran. The Royals and Tigers look to have a lot of question marks but it's certainly possible some guys will emerge. I think some trades may get done for the Twins within a week or two and I'm hopeful they will create some excitement for Twins fans.

That's the idea Otaknam, we have a need for a young catching prospect and tangentially to dump Vasquez and his $10 million dollar contract. Targeting Quero and using a strength of IF talent to acquire Quero followed by a trade of Vasquez to shed the $10 million along with the $6 million of Castro's contract opens up the possibility to add a RH hitting OF (Austin Hayes or Mark Canha) or a better 1B like Yandy Diaz in a trade. Maybe even sign a solid LH RP. Castro has value. I don't want to just give him away. But I have doubts he will be a Twin beyond 2025 and holes to fill with this current roster. The first trade the Twins make should be the first domino in about 3 trades that sets the Twins roster for opening day. Boston traded their young catching prospect Kyle Teel. They have Connor Wong but Vasquez was a solid catcher for them on a World Series winning team. I think Boston would take him and all $10 million of his contract if they could send us a lottery ticket prospect. If I could, I'd love to send them Vasquez for Ceddane Rafaela. Both are making $10 million per season and are considered negative assets by BBTV. Rafaela is also much younger than Vasquez and plays an excellent SS & CF. He's the perfect insurance for Correa and Buxton and can also play a good 2B. I'd highly doubt Boston would do it, but I'd at least ask.

I like how Indiana Twin has laid out his "starts" over the course of a season. It gives us a logical look how a 6-man rotation could play out. Each team in MLB would have different reasons for a 6-man rotation. Take the Dodgers: With the addition of Sasaki and with Yamamoto in the rotation along with Ohtani you have 50% of a 6-man staff accustomed to working in a 6-man staff. Ohtani is coming off Tommy John surgery. Yamamoto had injury issues last year. In addition, with the other three, Snell, Glasgow and potentially Kershaw, each of those guys with their injury issues benefits from an extra day of rest. The challenge for the Dodgers is how deep do each of their pitchers go in games, especially Snell and Kershaw, their 2 lefty's who recently have been 5 inning pitchers. Dave Roberts biggest challenge will be managing a BP that, while his rotation will probably give him at least 5 good innings each outing, will have a LOT of innings the BP will have to cover. The Twins #4, #5 & #6 SP's are not of the caliber the Dodgers have. I will also echo the idea that Paddack will not be on the Twins in 2025, so you're looking at SWR, Festa and Matthews as #4, #5 & #6. With that, even though I think 2025 will see Festa and Matthews emerge, I'd stick with a 5-man staff and maximize my starts for Pablo, Ryan and Ober while having Varland and maybe one other pitcher that I could use for 2-inning stints 2 to 3 times per week. Maybe that's how Raya breaks in to the big leagues. A 6-man rotation makes perfect sense for the Dodgers. It is an interesting consideration for the Twins, but the way our rotation will look after a Paddack trade, I don't see it working in 2025.

To those who don't think the Twins are in "Win Now" mode, despite the Pohlad family's decree that payroll must be cut...did any of you read Seth Stoh's breakdown of each of the A.L. Central's IF, OF, SP and bullpen? If you didn't, or you just skimmed it, the Twins have as much talent as any of the three playoff teams in the division. Based on WAR, we have the 2nd best starting rotation with Lopez, Ryan and Ober all primed to have very good seasons. The top rated rotation in the division, K.C. has a legit Cy Young candidate in Cole Ragans and some serious question marks after that. Seth Lugo was outstanding for the Royals last year. He went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA. He also threw a career high 207 innings. The year before, he transitioned to a SP role with the Padres and made 26 starts/146 innings pitched. Prior to last year that 146 IP was a career high. Lugo may defy the odds again in 2025, but he's 35 years old and I think he's ready for a fall. The Royals #3 is Michael Wacha and he's been fairly steady for the last 3 years. Detroit has Cy Young Winner Tarik Skubal and he's a beast. After him they have young but unproven talent. Flaherty is gone. Defending division champs Cleveland are thin with Bieber and McKenzie trying to return from injury. The Twins ranked well in IF talent, OF talent and bullpen talent. They have what it takes to reclaim the division crown if Correa and Buxton can stay healthy enough to play in 100+ games and young talent like Lewis, Wallner and Lee stay healthy and play like their capable. The Twins should compete. Castro is an important part of that talent mix. But it's clear his value is at an all time high and even with new ownership in 2025, will Willi be back in 2026? Young talent like Keaschall, Eeles, Helman and E-Rod could make Castro less valuable to the Twins if any of all of those kids make an impact. So for the purpose of the article, if I traded Willi Castro, what would I look for in return? Probably neither of the packages offered. But I WOULD target Jefferson Quero, Milwaukee's young catching prospect that many think is very close to being major league ready. Quero is blocked by All Star William Contreras, so the Brewers might be willing to part with him. Quero's value on BBTV is 22.7. Castro's is 8.9 so one-for-one is probably not happening. Eddie Julien's value is 16.5. I'd package him with Castro (total value 25.4) for Quero and get a low level lottery ticket or a higher level prospect who has stalled out (think Camargo value) someone whose value is 2.0 or less. I'd slightly over pay just to get Quero. The Brewers use Castro at 2B primarily and Utility as they need. Julien continues to try to improve at 2b while learning 1B. Turang moves to SS. Then I'd be in a position to trade Vasquez (or even Jeffers, not likely, but it would depend what I could get back). Quero steps in with whoever isn't traded and I have a year to monitor Diego Cartaya. In 2026 the Twins would have Quero, maybe Jeffers and maybe Cartaya. Vasquez would be gone either way. Young catching would be in place. 2B/3B would be Lewis, Lee or Keaschall (2B/1B) with Eeles my Utility Man. I'd have Miranda for 1B/3B/DH. E-Rod in LF. Bottom line, Castro has value now but will probably not be with the Twins in 2026. The Twins want to compete in 2025. Can they make themselves better in an area of weakness and replace Castro on the major league roster in 2025 with Keaschall, Eeles or Helman adequately?? That's the gamble, but one I'd be willing to take to get a talented young catcher into the fold.

I was at the game that Reese hit the pinch hit Grand Slam off of Dave McNally. Just a note: McNally had his consecutive game win streak stopped at 17, not 15. I was a 6th grader and a friend of mine who had a Christmas Day birthday would have what his parents would call an "un-birthday" in the summer each year. In 1969, his Dad, who was a Mayo Clinic physician, somehow managed to get seats RIGHT BEHIND the Twins dugout. I had never had a seat like that before, I was used to being exiled to the right field knot hole gang seats with my 2 brothers. Seeing Oliva, Killebrew, Carew and Tovar THAT CLOSE while they played catch was a memory that will stay with me forever. That game and the 1969 season have always been my favorite for the Twins. Probably being an 11 year old 6th grader had a lot to do with that, but under manager Billy Martin, it was a magical year. Killebrew won the MVP and A.L. HR crown (49) and RBI's (140). Carew won his first A.L. batting title (.332) and stole home 7 times. Tony Oliva, my favorite Twin, hit .309 and led the A.L. with 39 doubles while knocking in over 100 runs. He also won a Gold Glove. Cesar Tovar stole 45 bases. And they had two 20 game winners, Jim Perry and Dave Boswell. I can rattle stuff like that off without needing to look it up to this day. As 6th graders, my friends and I at the game (there were 4 of us) were all baseball experts. We couldn't believe Billy Martin sent Rich Reese up in the 7th inning to pinch hit against McNally with the bases loaded. EVERYBODY knew Reese couldn't hit a lefty !!! My memory is that McNally threw Reese a fastball up and Reese crushed it to deep left center field. Oriole CF Paul Blair was racing toward the left center field wall to try to make the catch, but Oriole LF Don Buford was just watching it fly over his head into the seats. Met Stadium went crazy. Even in 1987 or 1991 in the Metrodome, I don't remember it being louder than that summer day of August 3rd, 1969 in the open air of Metropolitan Stadium. These look backs at various Twins players are a tremendous feature of TD. I may not always comment on each player but I read every one of them. This one was special because of that hot August day in 1969 when for the first time in my life, as Bob Uecker would say, 3 friends of mine and I had seats "in the front row" to see an incredible baseball game between the 2 best teams in the American League with 7 eventual HOF players.

Great article and great series breaking down the A.L. Central Seth. I am pretty much in agreement with your rankings, in each of your examples you provided. There are some things that are a certainty and other things that are very much a question to be answered. At the top of the list for each of the A.L. Central teams is HEALTH. The Chicago White Sox are bad. Their hitting is bad, Their pitching is bad. They have some young talent coming but they will have more "downs" than "ups" for a while. The Tigers have not only the best SP in the A.L. Central, but maybe the best in all of baseball. Tarik Skubal could very well follow last season's CY Young with another one this year. The Tigers have some other talented young pitchers, but none that comes close to Skubal. If he were to miss any time at all this season it would be a major blow to the Tigers. Cleveland is the great unknown to me. They have past stars (Bieber and McKenzie) who are recovering from injuries who have either won a CY Young or been very, very good. They have young SP with great potential, (Bibee and Gavin Williams). The variance of what they COULD be and what they WILL be in enormous. The Royals have the best 1-2 in the division according to WAR with Ragans and Lugo and a solid #3 with Wacha. However, Lugo's transition from reliever to starter exceeded all expectations last year and with it came a large increase in innings. Can he repeat it? Ragans is a sleeper CY Young candidate. Wacha was solid last year, but pitching can be so up and down. Can he repeat or come close to what he did? I'd give KC the nod for top rotation and best player in the division, Bobby Witt Jr. Finally the Twins. We all expect Lopez to have a bounce back season. Much closer to 2023 than 2024. Joe Ryan, like Cole Ragans, has that look of a sneaky CY Young candidate provided he stays healthy all season. To me, Ober is the best #3 in the division despite Wacha having a 3.3 WAR to his 2.9. Given a choice, I'd take Ober and his consistent improvement year after year to out perform Wacha by the end of the year. I don't see Paddack throwing a single inning for the Twins this season. He's going to get traded soon. The #4 & #5 spots in the rotation will be Festa & SWR backed up by Matthews and Morris. Questions abound. Can SWR come close to his 2024? Can Festa tap into his tremendous potential and throw 150 innings? Will the Twins surprise with a SP addition? Someone like Jose Quintana? How would that affect the rotation? Would it come down to a spring training battle between Festa and SWR for the #5 spot? Quintana would be an interesting addition. He's left-handed. He eats up innings. He's kind of a perfect stabilizing #4 where someone like Festa could be the "exciting potential" #5. Would the addition of someone like Quintana allow the Twins to dangle SWR in a trade to add a better 1B or RH hitting outfielder? Last year, 3 A.L. Central teams made the playoffs. The Twins certainly have the talent to win the division. That much is clear in Seth's series. Next up will be the bullpen. Cleveland had an historic BP last year, from Clase down to the last arm in the pen. Can they all repeat it? The Twins have potentially one of the best BP's in all of baseball, not just the A.L. Central. A good BP can make the starting rotation even better.

This is great news Lavelle's notes just reinforce what we've been hearing. I have no problem with this possibly taking until Memorial Day, as long as it happens by then. As a fan, I'm still hoping that we're in contention and that a big trade can be swung before the deadline. By Memorial Day A LOT of questions will at least have partial answers. Is the team healthy? Who is playing 1B, 2B & 3B? How are Wallner and Larnach doing so far? How are guys like E-Rod, Eeles and Keaschall doing? What about Julien? Who are our #4 & #5 SP's and how are they doing? etc... The change will happen in time for a possible blockbuster deal and the Twins will have more information from which to work from.

I would shift Castro in the LF role and have Larnach as the DH, or possibly an average of Larnach/Miranda as the DH. Castro's glove, especially as good as he is in LF specifically, means he's the LF and Larnach the DH in this comparison. The clear "All A.L. Central OF" would be Kwan in LF, Buxton in CF and Carpenter in RF. But Wallner has the potential to come close to Carpenter in OPS and OPS+ this season. Carpenter will hit for a higher average and strike out less, but Wallner's power potential, especially if he can reach 500+ AB's is exciting. I think TwinsDr2021 is right. Wallner has put together 2 straight seasons of an OPS over .800. He's done it in roughly half a season both times. He needs to take a step forward and show a little something against LHP and even though there will be a slump or two to deal with, Wallner needs to be in RF for at least 120 games. The same is true with Larnach. The key to both Larnach & Wallner is continuing to be solid hitters against RHP but to show some kind of improvement against lefty's. Throw Castro into the OF mix and it's clear the Twins have the best collection of OF's in the A.L. Central. Buxton is the key, and a mid-season call up of E-Rod could really take it to another level. I would like to see Keirsey get a solid chance because I love his defense. But if he makes the team out of spring training, I wonder if he's just a bridge until E-Rod gets called up. The certainty of our OF stands in in stark contrast to the uncertainty of our IF. With the exception of Correa at SS each of 1B, 2B & 3B is a question mark as to who will be deployed to each position. Potential aces in the hole are minor leaguers like Eeles and Keaschall. The ceiling of what they could give the Twins at 1B & 2B is really interesting. What is their floor?

Thanks Seth ! This was a very interesting read and already there are a number of good comments. C: Clearly Sal Perez and Fermin are #1. Although a healthy Pasquantino may allow Perez more time at catcher, I would think the Royals would want to limit his catching innings where they could. Fermin was very good in a limited sample size last year. The Twins are O.K. here, maybe even #2. But as with every position in the infield for the Twins, who will actually be playing at each position. I'm not sure we will have Jeffers/Vasquez to begin the season or for a full season. 1B: Santana is about to fall off a cliff. He will come nowhere near a 3.0 WAR in 2025. I'm not as high on Julien recovering to become a better hitter "yet." He was SO LOST at the plate last season. I also think his days at 2B are numbered in the Twins organization. Just too many guys have moved past him. I am confident Miranda can do a decent job. To me KC is clearly the strongest at 1B with a combo of Perez and Pasquantino. Colt Keith intrigues me for the Tigers. I would rank 1B: KC, Tigers, Twins, Cleveland and CWS. (Who knows...even with Colt Keith playing most of the innings at 1B could Torkelson finally start hitting somewhere near his potential for the Tigers)?? 2B: Again, this is very hard to get a feel for where the Twins could end up. Lewis, Lee, Eeles and Keachall (as well as Castro) could all play 2B. There's a reasonably good expectation that the Twins will have some pretty solid offense there. Cleveland's 1B and 2B losses cannot be underestimated and the idea that Polanco will be an answer for them is laughable. Cleveland is hurting there. KC really upgraded with India (but lost a solid and fairly young SP in Singer to get him) and Gleybor will be decent in Detroit. I'd go: KC, Twins, Det, Cleve, CWS. 3B: It's Jose Ramirez in a runaway. Who will be the Twins 3B? Lewis can compete reasonably well with Ramirez minus the SB's, if he can stay healthy. But Lewis ANYWHERE in the IF, whether it be 3B, 2B or 1B with 30 HR's and 100 RBI is tremendous. The Wild Card is Bregman. Does he sign with the Tigers or the Red Sox?? For the sake of this comparison let's take the worst case scenario and put him with the Tigers. Cleveland, Tigers, Twins, Royals, White Sox. SS: The best player in the American League is Bobby Witt Jr. and he should only get better. Correa is the clear #2. I'll go Cleveland, Tigers and White Sox after the top two. When it's time for me to chime in on the OF it should be a lot easier to figure out where the Twins stand because there are nowhere near the mysteries of the infield. It will be fascinating to see how the Twins shake out their IF. With the exception of SS none of us can say with any certainty who will be the primary 3B, 2B and 1B. I like that Royce Lewis is going away from the bulked up body and is endeavoring to become slimmer and more flexible. He'll still be a power hitter but maybe he can stay healthier and might even be able to use his once top shelf speed to steal a few bases. Lewis is the KEY to how the IF shakes out. I'd play him where ever I could maximize his health so as to make sure I had his impact bat in the lineup. If that means 1B, so be it. Let Brooks Lee play 3B and Castro 2B until Eeles or Keaschall kick down the door and claim the position. Miranda can be the primary DH, which wouldn't be all that bad if it helps him stay healthier and leads to a more productive season at the plate.