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TopGunn#22

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Everything posted by TopGunn#22

  1. Grichuk would certainly be a better option than signing a LH hitting Gallo or Margot, Refsynder et al. He checks a lot of boxes...murders LH pitching. Capable of not only playing a corner OF at an average to above average ability but also capable of logging some innings in CF (just as long as it's not for an extended period of time). With E-Rod probably making his debut around the All Star Game, Grichuk is that RH outfield platoon bat the Twins need to balance out there roster. He's not as good an option as Profar, but that's why Profar will be paid significantly more than Grichuk. And with money the primary focus of this ownership group I, as a fan, need to temper my expectations of a Profar vs Grichuk move and understand that Grichuk is not a bad option. If Grichuk didn't have a couple warts, he would still be an everyday player. He's not. But he DOES clobber LH pitching, he has power (his HR totals since 2019...31, 12-Covid, 22, 19, 16, and last year 12. Those HR totals have gone down as he's settled into more of a platoon role, but that's the role we would want him in anyway. Last year he hit .291 and in 254 AB's hit 12 HR's and 20 2B's with an .875 OPS. He's 33 years old so his production shouldn't fall off a cliff. Signed to a 2-year contract, he would be a nice platoon/bench bat as E-Rod eventually cracks the starting lineup and the Twins determine who they keep and who they deal between Wallner and Larnach. He could be signed for $1.75 to $2.00 million per season. For a team pinching pennies this kind of signing is a Godsend. The sooner the Twins move to make this a reality, the better.
  2. I have been intrigued by this idea since it was first floated. There are positives as well as negatives. If Jax is slotted in as the #4 SP in the Twins rotation, but pitches like a #2 SP then it's a WIN. If Jax pitches like an equivalent #4 or #5 SP to Festa, SWR or Matthews than it's a LOSS. Because the Twins would be forfeiting the A+ pitcher Jax is in high leverage, late game appearances. But the idea that his value accelerates if he makes a successful transition to the rotation is valid. That helps the Twins rotation and as DJL44 pointed out, if he's really good, the Twins can determine which of Jax, Ryan, Ober or Lopez gets spun off in a blockbuster trade. We are currently marooned in "Pohladville" where it's an absolute certainty all of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Jax will not be Minnesota Twins in 2027. If the Pohlad Family is still around, there is no way they're paying for each one of those 4 pitchers in addition to a host of other position players as well as Duran. If Jax has more value after 2025 & 2026 that is a good thing. A new ownership group "might" have a different philosophy. But we all currently live in "Pohladville" so there's no point in speculating. Another thing to consider is that it's MUCH EASIER to add a RP than it is a SP. For example: Kirby Yates just led the A.L. in Saves last year and had a great year for Texas. He will be 38 for the 2025 season. Spotrac estimates his Free agent 2025 salary to be 1-year and $6 million. My Rochester, Minnesota public school math tells me that $6 million is LESS than $13 million. And a LOT less than the $20+ million Luis Severino just got. With the contracts guys like Severino and Boyd got (not to mention Blake Snell) the escalating costs of SP's each year in MLB is just mind boggling. And if starting doesn't work out for Jax he can always be moved back into the BP. If Jax was inserted into the rotation, and the Twins were able to trade contracts like Paddack, Vasquez and Castro, they would have the room to bring in someone like Yates. Now, it doesn't have to BE Yates, but if you look at his salary as a match to Castro's and you coupled these moves with a signing of Jurikson Profar to play LF and hit at the top of the order, I would say a lineup with Profar in LF and Yates holding down the back end with Duran and a rotation that would go Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Jax and Festa, would be something I could feel pretty good about going into 2025. I think there is some steam to Jax heading to the rotation. I think the positives outweigh the negatives. Jax has really made himself into a very good pitcher. His work ethic is VERY GOOD. I'd be willing to bet on him working out pretty nicely in the rotation.
  3. That would be the hope Fezig. But a player who would have been a good fit (Tyler O'Neill) just signed with the Orioles. One "moderate" FA that could help the Twins a LOT that was recently mentioned by a baseball insider as a good fit for the Twins is Jurikson Profar. Profar played LF for the Padres this past season, is a switch hitter who is effective from both sides of the plate, and hit .280 with 24 HR's and 85 RBI. He scored 94 runs and had an OPS of .839. He is projected to get a 3 year, $39 million dollar contract. That's "moderate value" in today's MLB. The Twins would need to find a way to clear some payroll. Paddack ($7.5 million) Vasquez ($10 million) and Willi Castro ($6.2 million) have been mentioned. Moving any or all of them makes Profar that much more affordable and having him at the top or hitting 2nd in our lineup would be a real positive addition to the Twins and and solve the LF problem. It would also open up a possible trade of Larnach. The Twins core is certainly good enough to compete in 2025. But an addition of Profar and swinging a deal for a young catcher like Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) or Kyle Teel (Red Sox) would go al long way to adding a little excitement to the Twins off season. After having the fan base get their hopes crushed by an ownership that is more focused on profit margins than winning, it would be a breath of fresh air. I think anyone in the front office has to know that they are battling to keep their jobs with a new regime coming on board in the not too distant future. A 2nd consecutive 4th place finish will ensure they will all be looking for a new job in 2026. A division championship or playoff appearance at least gives them a chance of retaining their positions.
  4. As much fun as it was to watch Arraez hit, I don't think there is a guy who comments on TD that regrets getting Pablo Lopez. Jocko87 nailed it by quoting himself from some time ago. If Arraez either had the speed or OF glove of Tony Gywnn he'd be a hot commodity. If he had the power of David Ortiz same thing. But he doesn't. To me, his closest comp to some degree is Matty Alou. All Alou could hit was singles. He might get 25-30 doubles in a season but he had 31 CAREER HR's. In 1968, "The Year of the Pitcher" Alou hit .332 with an OPS of .758. In 558 AB's he walked just 27 times for an OBP of .362. With teammates like Roberto Clemente, Willie Stargell and Don Clendenon he only scored 59 runs and knocked in just 52. He did steal 18 bases but was caught 10 times. Among his 185 hits were 28 doubles, 4 triples and ZERO HR's. What set Alou apart from Arraez is that he was a pretty decent CF. He had a sub par throwing arm, but that was mitigated with having the cannon arms of Clemente and Stargell on either side of him. Alou could catch the ball and he could run, two things Arraez can't do as well. But all Alou could hit was singles. It's why despite a .307 lifetime average, Matty Alou is not in the HOF. Alou didn't win batting titles. That's tough to do when you're in the same league as Clemente, Rose, Aaron and Billy Williams (among a host of others). But in the 60's and early 70's when pitching dominated, he was a pretty valuable guy. The one similarity that I see with Arraez and Alou that is a deficiency, is they both should have scored more runs. Alou got 185 hits and had Clemente, Stargell and Clendenon hitting behind him in 1968 and he only scored 59 runs. How is that possible? The one thing that Arraez could do a little better to raise his value is score more runs. 83 runs scored is not bad, but 100 runs scored in a season is the gold standard. It just boggles the mind that you can have a player who wins 3 CONSECUTIVE batting titles and nobody wants to keep this guy on their team. On the current Twins team, playing a below average 2B and maybe an average 1B Arraez would be a better option than anybody we have hitting leadoff of 2nd in the lineup. Another comp with Arraez would be Rod Carew. Carew was a better 2B and 1B than Arraez will ever be and Carew certainly had much more speed, from stealing bases to legging out doubles and triples. If Arraez just had "some" of the speed Carew had his value would soar to a 20 SB and 100 runs scored guy. I'm a little intrigued by JDTwins idea of trading for Arraez and Padres catcher Luis Campusano. I just cannot imagine the current Twins ownership or FO finding room for a $14 million dollar singles hitter. That's a sad reality, but true.
  5. It's an interesting suggestion but even taking back Vasquez and Paddack, throwing someone like Duran/Jax in seems like too much for me. And the benefit of moving Vasquez and Paddack is to have that $17.5 million available to plug a couple of holes. Suzuki is a solid RH bat. But he's not a plus defender. He could play "some" OF, but at $15-$18 million per season for the next 2 years, while he would make the lineup better, Our OF defense would suffer without anybody above average in our corner OF at all. I'd like to see how BBTV's would break down the deal Eric suggested as well as a couple of variations. What if SWR was included instead of Duran or Jax. I'd rather keep Duran & Jax at the back of my BP than a #4 or #5 SP. Heck, I'd give Jax a shot at the rotation and come up with a BP option. SWR's value has never been higher. Sell high on him and go with Festa, Matthews and Morris who probably have higher ceilings. Thanks for the example though Eric. It is an interesting idea.
  6. I don't think signing aging SP's like Verlander or Scherzer is a good strategy going forward. They are guaranteed to break down, and they won't be cheap. In the short term, the idea of trading Pablo Lopez could make sense. But it all comes down to what you're getting back. If you traded Lopez and Jeffers to the Red Sox, what else would it take to get Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel back? Boston has an acute need in their starting rotation. They also have a good catcher in Connor Wong but Jeffers would give then a solid hitting option in a time share and allow them to consider moving Teel. What else would it take from the Twins to make this happen? SWR? Matthews? Paddack? If the Twins could somehow acquire a dynamic leadoff hitter and CF (allowing them to move Buxton to LF, solving the LF problem and possibly allowing for better health for Buxton going forward, AND acquire their Catcher of the Future" how big of a win would that be for the Twins?? Boston gets an Ace level SP and a solid catcher. The Twins could roll with a rotation of Ryan, Ober, Jax, Festa and SWR/Matthews. The Twins would probably need to come up with a #3 or #4 vet option for their rotation. Maybe Jose Quintana? It would lower payroll immediately, but a plan would need to be in place to make the team better going forward. I would argue Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel could do just that.
  7. This is a legit article. The only thing missing from this article is a couple of examples of what Ryan or Ober COULD bring back in a trade. I agree with chpettit19 and tony&rodney and others who make it clear "It Always Depends on What is Coming Back." And teams like Cleveland and Tampa Bay have shown this kind of approach can very successful. So while I don't advocate for trading either, but I'm not going to turn my face to the wall and throw a fit over the idea either. It could be debated whether the Twins are actually "IN A WINDOW" of being a contender. With an ownership group who tanked a potentially promising 2024 by cutting payroll and then gifting the team and fan base with Trevor Richards at the deadline, and continuing to shout from the mountain top that "WE'RE CUTTING PAYROLL AGAIN, AGAIN, AGAIN..." it's fair to wonder if we are contenders. Ryan and Ober are both good pitchers. It's safe to say that we would be in a less competitive position for 2025 if we traded one of them. But again, it depends on what you're getting back. tony&rodney mentioned Ober for Jarren Duran. I would do that trade in a heartbeat. Duran is a very good CF who can also play either corner. He's a dynamite leadoff hitter who posted an 8.7 WAR season in 2024. He's 28 years old and after being a top Red Sox prospect for a few years really put it together in 2024 after having a good 2023 season. He led the A.L. in doubles (48) and triples (14) while cracking 21 HR's and had 34 SB's. He would look absolutely fabulous at the top of our order and in CF. You could shift Buxton to LF where his defense would still be outstanding but there would be less wear and tear. Why would Boston trade him? They are absolutely desperate for SP and their top prospect is a CF. They could fall back to Rafaela Ceddane to play CF in 2025 with Trevor Story playing SS. Rather than pay $20-$30 million or more for multiple rotation pieces, Boston may view Ober or Ryan as a perfect, low cost fit. You could then replace Ober in the rotation with Griffin Jax. After seeing what salaries pitchers are getting on the FA market already, does anyone think that has dampened Jax's determination to be a SP? Heck No! It's enflamed it. And it's probably time to start using that pitching pipeline we've been developing anyway. The Twins are going to have to pay Ober eventually. The Twins would have to pay Jarren Duran as well, so that's a wash. Ober is 30. Duran is 28. I like the idea of getting a solid CF, dynamic leadoff hitter on our team. I for one appreciate what the staff at TD churn out on a daily basis. That's not an easy job, but it's fun to read about baseball and what the Twins "could" or "might" do during a long, cold off season. Rather than criticizing and spouting off about what a terrible idea everything is, put a little time and effort into considering the positives and negatives of the proposed moves and state your case with a well thought out response. Don't just say "I didn't even read the article but..." That's just lazy. I don't mean to call out the specific guy who wrote that. It's the general uproar that follows when an article like this gets posted and people type before they ponder. I have concerns the Twins are still in a competitive window given the strongly negative vibes our ownership has sent the fan base and I'm not sure how much confidence I have in Falvey to even pull of a trade of this magnitude. The Twins do have some talent and could be competitive. A lot of that depends on young talent, Lewis, Lee, Julien, Jeffers, bouncing back, guys like Wallner, Miranda and Larnach continuing to improve and become more consistent and The health of Correa, Buxton and the starting rotation being able to stay healthy enough to produce like they're capable of. But, one way or the other, it's either going to happen or it isn't. Nothing I post on here is going to influence what the Twins eventually end up doing. The debate to me is always fun, even if it appears to some on TD to be an absurd waste of time.
  8. Interesting names, especially the LHP Webb from the Guardians system that jorgenswest just mentioned. It's not often that a Johan Santana or Shane Mack are available in the Rule 5. Did anyone notice if Crash Davis was on the list? I understand he's a switch hitting catcher with power, who is a good handler of pitching staffs. He's also a fan of long, wet kisses, which would probably help him fit in the clubhouse well.
  9. They also have 3 open spots on the 40 man roster. I can't see them picking more than one player (if any) in the Rule 5 Draft coming up. Seeing how that player has to remain on the big league roster all season, unless it's a player with great promise at a position we need, I think it's unlikely we add anyone. If we are planning to spin Paddack off for next to nothing if the other team picks up all $7.5 million (possible) I can't imagine that player would even be someone who is a 40 man roster contender.
  10. RV78 really hit the nail on the head for me. Nick said it as well. My biggest frustration with Twins leadership in the past (Pohlads and FO) is that they wait...and wait...and WAIT until all that is left is table scraps. That's why year after year, they appear to have no plan. Things with this organization are just too haphazard. They are constantly dumpster diving but then go out and sign Carlos Correa for big money. Correa is a signing you make when you decide your window is open and you're making a bid for a championship. When 2023 comes around, and you win the division and actually win a playoff game for the first time in nearly 2 decades the decision is suddenly made to "right size" your payroll. As fans we then realize "There Really Is No Plan." They collapsed at the end of last season and finished 4th in the division. The only team worse than the Twins was the all time MLB loss record setting White Sox. But there is still a LOT of talent on this team even though they have some concerning roster holes. The division is getting better and better. I agree with RV78 and Nick Nelson that I would "LIKE" to see the Twins be more proactive. I'd like to see evidence of an actual PLAN, not just reactions to the market. I think at $7.5 million a LOT of teams would be interested in Paddack. And with the recent price of pitching Paddack has real value. The Twins SHOULD be able to make a deal with him, even if it has to be a little later when several teams look at their rotations and see they are coming up short. I think there is more value to Vasquez, even at his price than we're allowing for. There are a host of teams that have a need for a Vasquez type of catcher. Texas is not a possibility after they signed a catcher but there are others. And I think there are a lot of teams that would look at the cost of Paddack or Vasquez as not a problem to take on the entire contract. Especially if a little sweetener like a minor league prospect was attached. Finally, I see Nick has Willie Castro penciled in as the starting LF. That makes sense. Castro would be following the same career path as Cesar Tovar for the Twins. Castro is actually very good defensively in LF. Heck, the Dodgers just gave Tommy Edman 5 yrs and $75 million (and we've been conditioned by our ownership and FO to beg for smelling salts at the thought of $15 million per year for Byron Buxton). I imagine Edman will play either SS or CF fulltime depending on what other moves the Dodgers make. But I still think Castro would be someone they would be interested in. I want to see the Twins swing a deal for Kyle Teel or Dalton Rushing. THIS is the BIG TRADE I want to see happen during the Winter Meetings. I think Rushing is more likely with the Dodgers extreme abundance of top catching prospects and All Star Will Smith firmly entrenched as the starter. I'm not sure what the deal would be, but I would have Castro as part of it. The Dodgers are in WIN NOW mode. Why not get an integral piece like Castro right now when Rushing is blocked by Will Smith for several years. Not sure what else would be needed. Would the Dodgers push us to include Jhoan Duran? How big could the deal go? If you acquired Rushing from L.A. and had a plan to trade Paddack later, you could make a deal with Miami for Vasquez where you would take back more salary (Alcantara $15 million). He's coming off Tommy John but after missing all of 2024 he will be ready to pitch in 2025. In this type of plan you would cut $23.7 million and add $15.75 million with Alcantara and Rushing. That leaves around $8 million left to invest in the roster. Spend $1.5 million to sign Jose Iglesias to cover the infield spots Castro would have and you still have $6.5 million to work with. This ownership group and FO has the means to make some moves to fortify this roster while cutting payroll. They just need to have the guts to be aggressive in implementing their plan. But waiting "for the market to shake out" isn't going to work. It will reduce options and Plan B, and Plan C and Plan D.
  11. We've seen multiple scenarios about trading nearly every player on the Twins roster so far this winter. It is a sobering thought when the Dodgers can pay a utility guy MORE than what we're paying Byron Buxton, and we still act like Buxton's contract is a backbreaker for our current ownership. The Twins don't pay relief pitchers top dollar and they won't be paying a utility guy top dollar. Certainly not in 2026. Castro is the modern day version of Cesar Tovar. He plays enough to get regular player AB's but he plays all over the diamond. Castro will certainly NOT be with the Twins in 2026. And maybe Jhoan Duran won't be either. Would a Duran and Castro for Teel trade work with the Red Sox? Boston is moving on from Kenley Jansen. They got a solid year out of Connor Wong at catcher last year. Castro could be a very valuable piece for them. Would Duran and Castro be enough to pry "Catcher of the Future" Teel away ??
  12. It's time. Since money is the primary consideration to the Twins, Keirsey should finally be given a real shot. I think the comparison to Austin Martin AB's-wise is a good one. Keirsey plays good defense, has the speed and athleticism the Twins desperately need and as Buxton's primary replacement fits as a LH hitter. It remains to be seen if Willi Castro remains on the Twins or gets traded. His value is at an all time high and at $6.2 million he's a tremendous bargain. Even for a team like the Twins, who throw nickels around like man hole covers his current contract is a bargain. If Castro is kept, he could be a LF platoon option with Larnach as well as an infield defender. Keirsey fits in that scenario. If Castro is not kept, it would depend on what the Twins got back back in the trade. But signing a vet like Jose Iglesias for $1.5 million to be your SS/2B/3B defender with good bat to ball skills would be needed to replace what Castro provided in the infield. Keirsey STILL fits in that scenario. Over the last 3 seasons, Keirsey has earned the right to be part of this discussion. When you factor in an injury and the lost Covid minor league season it's no wonder he's behind by a couple years. Another reason he deserves a shot is that the Twins have a solid "Plan B" in place with Emmanuel Rodriguez. I expect E-Rod to be up with the Twins by the All Star break. I don't expect him to break camp with the Twins because they have Wallner & Larnach standing in his way and I doubt the Twins want E-Rod as the 4th outfielder. When he gets called up it will be to play everyday...or nearly everyday. I do not understand the reluctance on the part of the Twins FO to give Keirsey a chance. He checks a lot of the boxes they need checking right now for the major league roster. Speed, defense, athleticism. The only real question with Keirsey is will he hit enough to stick. I'm afraid it may come down to something as arbitrary as how well he hits in spring training. It would be a real small sample size (SSS to us on TD). But if he hits well, it will help him a lot more than if he hits .200 in spring training.
  13. I would think if he's looking at a one-year contract, Colorado may be a good spot to rebuild his value if he's willing to gamble on himself. He could always get spun off to a contender at deadline by the Rockies. His Spotrac and ESPN values seems high to me. He could make sense with the Yankees if Verdugo is gone (which he will be) and depending on what happens with Juan Soto. He's not a better option than Starling Marte for the Mets. San Diego and Houston don't seem like good fits. It seems like the Giants would stick with Yastrezmski. The Royals could be a fit. The way Max has clobbered Cleveland pitching in his career, the Guardians may sign him just so they don't have to face him. I can't see the Marlins being interested. And if I was Miami, for roughly the same money, I'd be more interested in Vasquez to handle my young pitching staff. Miami has the worst catching situation in MLB. If the money is near equal, I could see Miami being more interested in Vasquez in the right trade.
  14. The other aspect of "one-tool specialists" is that they have to be "ELITE" with that one tool to be worthy of holding that roster spot. At least on a winning team. They can't be Very Good, or even just Good. They need to be ELITE. The quintessential "one tool player" the Twins have had in the last 10 years or so was Nelson Cruz. He couldn't play the field. All he could do was hit. But boy could he HIT. The Twins were Division Champs in 2019 and 2020 and Cruz was ELITE. I'm completely in the camp with Doc Bauer and chpettit19, I'd rather see the Twins go with one of their rookies than a below average vet. This is especially true if coming in "at budget" is more important than trying to win a World Series. Adding a vet like Chili Davis helped the Twins win the World Series. Would the Twins have won in 1991 if they had promoted their version of E-Rod instead of signing Chili? Probably not. But winning a World Series is obviously not a priority of the Pohlad family for 2025, so after 3 consecutive seasons of solid production in the minor leagues, maybe it IS time to give Keirsey and Helman a legitimate shot. You can consider Keirsey and Helman as "fringy" players. But guys like E-Rod and Keaschall are considered excellent prospects. BOTH have been mentioned as Rookie of the Year candidates. If the goal is not to win a World Series in 2025 (and it clearly is NOT) then it makes far more sense to go with one or both of E-Rod and Keaschall. It becomes more likely if one or both tear it up in spring training. If one or both struggle, it's an easy call to have them in St. Paul to marinate for a bit.
  15. Thank You DJL44 !1 I read the outline on Austin Hays THREE TIMES and just couldn't see where they had listed his probable cost. I read your comment, went back and checked again...and there it was right at the top. I never cease to amaze myself... I still think Hays is worth looking into. While I agree that his $6.4 cost is dead even with Castro, and that I would rather have Castro of the two, I have no idea what the Twins current brain trust actually is planning. Actually, I've complained about the Twins seemingly never having a plan in past off seasons because they always seem to be so late to the dance with any moves. It's almost like they wait on purpose and let the market dictate to them, rather than identifying a player who could be a solution. Then, all that's left to them is dumpster diving. I would much rather move forward with some of their young talent. But sometimes you need a bridge to get that talent ready to make the jump. There ARE certain vet players that can be signed for affordable salaries that can be helpful. Santana was one last year. Michael Taylor the year before. But the Gallo, Shoemaker, Margot types of vets are far too often what we end up with. I'm looking forward to a new ownership group that takes owning a sports franchise more like how the Wilf's run the Vikings than how the Pohlad family has run the Twins.
  16. No doubt Zimmerman was a great defensive catcher. But the bat was such a noodle it's hard to say he was the best "backup" catcher in Twins history. Eventually, backups need to become starters if they are any good at all. That's why Brian Harper is a great suggestion. He started at Laudner's backup and eventually beat him out. Sustained mediocrity or below average play shouldn't be celebrated. Mike Redmond is probably the closest to being that "all-time backup." He was never going to beat out a Hall of Famer like Mauer, but hitting .341 as the RH compliment to Joe was pretty good.
  17. Was it just an oversight not to list what the potential cost of Hays would be? It's a pretty important factoid when your dealing with a "Pohlad right-sized budget." Certainly De La Cruz is out of any consideration. There is just nothing about him to get excited about. Certainly not at 4 million. Not even at $1 million. Hays and Carlson are a different story. Hays has the bat and prior to 2024 was a pretty good defensive LF. Depending on cost, he would be at the top of the list and I think the Twins should give him heavy consideration. Especially with Larnach already penciled in and E-Rod probably up by the All Star break, Hays is that RH OF bat the Twins have been looking for since they let Rooker get away. Carlson's defense alone makes him interesting, especially his ability to play a very good CF. He just can't hit. Could the Twins fix him? That's the $64 dollar question, because of the three, he's the best overall defensive OF and the most affordable (which is terribly important to the current ownership). If he could hit just enough, he makes sense as a 4th OF. Because I'd like to see Keirsey get a chance, I'd go for Hays (depending on what he would cost) because Keirsey would be Buxton's backup and Hays would cover LF/RF. Having a guy that can play INF and OF like Willi Castro makes it easier to end up having 2 OF on your bench with a backup catcher.
  18. Starting pitching is always the foundation for a winning ball club. There are many factors at play here not the least of which are what's best for Jax and what's best for the Twins. And they do not have to be mutually exclusive. I think Jax is a bulldog, and he will probably succeed with a transition to the rotation. This article primarily focuses on all the negative aspects of Jax joining the rotation, and while there ARE risks, with his stuff and pitch mix, he could be pretty darn good as a SP. His work ethic influences me to think he will be a pretty good #4 SP. Maybe good enough to be a #3. I think what I would do is have a meeting with Jax in which I would discuss a WIDE range of possible outcomes. One of which would be what if Duran was traded and you became the primary closer? I'm not anxious to trade Duran. But Jax is more consistent and could thrive as our closer. And Duran is probably the best trade piece to acquire a young "Catcher of the Future." Both the Red Sox and the Dodgers have a huge need for a closer and a young catcher (Teel-Red Sox, Rushing-Dodgers) who could be available. The Red Sox got a solid year out of Connor Wong behind the plate but I think Teel would be harder to get than Rushing from the Dodgers. The Dodgers have 3 top rated catchers in their farm system, each of whom are very close to becoming major leaguers. Each of those guys is blocked by All Star Will Smith and Austin Barnes, a backup catcher the Dodgers like a lot and who pitchers love to throw to. If Duran were used in a trade to bring one of them back, that would allow the Twins to trade either Vasquez or Jeffers, saving money that could be deployed to areas of need while adding offense to our catching platoon. If the Twins have no plan or desire to trade Duran, moving Jax to the rotation allows the Twins to dangle a young SP like SWR in a trade. The Orioles, Red Sox and Dodgers all need SP. The Dodgers just signed Blake Snell and if they also have the inside track to sign Roki Sasaki they wouldn't need SWR. But the Orioles and Red Sox have acute rotation needs and a young SP like SWR could bring back something pretty special. For teams like the Red Sox and Orioles, depending on how FA works out, a package of SWR AND Paddack could be very attractive. Finally, if Lugo and Lopez are any indication of what Jax could do in the rotation, imagine how good the #4 spot in our rotation would look with Jax holding it down. Finally, I don't like the idea of Festa being thought of as needing more time at St. Paul. I liked what I saw last year and I would like to see him as the #5 rotation piece. I just don't like the idea of a team that thinks they should be contending going with 2 or 3 2nd year pitchers in their rotation. I think Matthews could use a little more time in St. Paul. I like Festa's stuff. I think SWR will never have a higher off season value. All that adds up to moving SWR in a trade that brings something very good back and putting somebody with bigger upside at the #4 spot in our rotation, allowing Festa to grow as our #5. That #4 guy could be Jax. Or Jax could be our closer. Our we shock the world and sign someone to be our #4 SP, leave Duran and Jax in the pen, trade SWR for something nice and put Festa in as #5. Any of those scenarios work for me.
  19. Arraez is a good example in this discussion. Ultimately, I think he's at his best hitting for a higher average. Why mess up his swing trying to add 5 or 6 HR's. Still, he doesn't run well and has no defensive position where he's outstanding. He is what he is. He's Matty Alou without the ability to play CF at an above average level. Matty Alou was a good MLB player.
  20. I agree to a point that the Twins obsession with POWER is sometimes not helpful to our developing young hitters. Austin Martin is the best example I can come up with. His game is not power. Yet the Twins have continually tinkered with his swing to add more. I think Martin's game is hitting .285 and getting on base. and stealing/running the bases. He'd be much more valuable with a profile like that as opposed to reaching 10-12 HR's. For someone like Walker Jenkins. I just think the power will come. I like tony&rodney's comparison of Joe Mauer. Except for one 28 HR season, the power was never there for Mauer. But he had "acceptable" power. And power, to me, is extra base hits. Not necessarily exclusively HR's. I think everything is there for Jenkins to be special. Sure, coax a little more power into that swing. But as he grows into his body, a lot of that power is just going to emerge anyway.
  21. I tend to believe that those who can play...can play. I think chpettit19 made a great comparison with Chourio and Merrill. They struggled initially but the teams stuck with them. The kids figured it out. The Brewers knew Robin Yount was a player. They let him struggle for his first two years (he was 19 when he debuted) and then he turned the corner. The thing about E-Rod is that he's a pretty good outfielder. And for at least 2-3 years can be expected to supply good defense in CF, which comes in handy if Buxton has to miss any length of time. If E-Rod earns a roster spot in spring training, let him break camp with the club.
  22. I'm not sure I quite understand the idea that Lewis wants to play SS. He struggled with 3B last year as a result of leg issues, a hip flexor issue, and his arm strength had issues. He used to have a cannon and that was certainly not the case in 2024. There has been talk of moving him to 2B, shorter throw, less athleticism needed in the era of JUST. HIT. HR's. Heck, he's even been mentioned as a possible 1B or LF (where arm strength is nice, but not required). I agree with the idea that if Castro is dealt to open up some budget space and to bring back talent where the Twins could shore up perceived weaknesses, that a guy who can at least adequately handle SS is the primary replacement player. This is why I believe two, low cost options should be considered (if the Twins do not go with an internal option). Cody already mentioned Ahmed Rosario, the former Guardian, Dodger and a couple other teams. He's branched out to playing some OF now, so I don't know if that is an indication that he's fallen a long way at SS or that he's needed to play more positions than SS (2B, 3B, OF)to make himself more attractive to other teams. The Dodgers have needed a SS ever since they let Cory Seager go and Rosario conceivably could have claimed that job. But he didn't. He's not a bad option considering that he makes consistent contact and has much better speed than Farmer. But I wonder if he could do the job for 2-months if Correa had an issue. The other low cost alternative would be Jose Iglesias. He will be 35 this coming season and he's always been known as a very slick gloveman. He came up as a SS and is also solid at 2B and 3B. He has become a very consistent bat to ball guy. Doesn't run much anymore but can take the extra base as a baserunner. He's not a HR guy but since 2019 he's had just one season with an OPS less than .700. In fact his career OPS is .710. He can hit you a double far more regularly than Donovan Solano and he can actually play very good defense. Spotrac has Iglesias at $1.5 million for 2025. If the Twins move on from Castro and his $6.3 million they can certainly afford that. He could be a one year bridge to give one last chance to Julien or one more year bridge to guys like Keaschall and Helman.
  23. They are two of the greatest Twins of all time in the roles that they held. It's hard to get a close comparison to a current HOF player and another who is hoping to get it, but hasn't cleared that final hurdle. The comparison of Koufax to Santana is uncommonly close. Koufax had FOUR no-hitters. Santana only one. Koufax put up tremendous strikeout numbers. A then MLB record of 382 in 1965 and over 300 in 1963 and 1966 as well. And that was in an era when striking out was frowned upon. Players actually choked up to increase their chances of making contact. But the decade of dominance each had is very comparable. The comparison of Kirby Puckett not having the "counting" numbers (much like Tony-O) but the acknowledgement of their overall accomplishments eventually led to Kirby and Tony-O's induction. It took waaaaay too long for Oliva, but he DID make it. For those reasons I think Santana eventually gets in. And he SHOULD be in. Nathan has a good case to make, especially when you give weight to his all time best save percentage. But Billy Wagner has better overall numbers (saves, ERA, WHIP) so it's almost like Wagner needs to get in before Nathan has a chance. Nathan was the greatest closer in the history of the Twins in a decade where the team won a lot of division titles and made the playoffs, but where they had one playoff victory and never made it to the World Series. That didn't matter to Joe Mauer, but Mauer was truly a no-doubter, going in on his first ballot. I think more catchers should be in the HOF. A great example is Bill Freehan. He was the premier catcher in the American League when I was a kid growing up. He was named an All-Star ELEVEN TIMES! That's the most All Star selections for a player to have who ISN'T in the HOF. Freehan should be in there. For the same reason, I have no problem with closers being elected to the Hall. Closers are like field goal kickers in football. If you don't have a good one, your chances of succeeding suffer. If you have a great one, you can go a long way. Wagner is REALLY CLOSE to getting in. If he makes it, I like Nathan's chances even if it takes several years for him to get there.
  24. Well, that explains all the "Thumbs Down" from Schmoeman5 !! (typing that with a SMILE on my face). :) I've been frequently frustrated by Rocco's reluctance to let the LH hitters hit against a LHP (especially a relief pitcher) early in the game. I'm talking 5th inning or sooner. There were times Rocco removed a LH hitter before he even got an AB !! But at present, and in the not too distant future, we are going to become VERY Left-Handed with our OF bats. And it doesn't help to have the lone RH bat (Buxton) hurt so often. I believe a trade of one of them to help acquire something else the roster needs while at the same time possibly adding a RH bat that would possibly start in LF would be good for both the player (to move to a team that will give them a chance to hit against LH pitching) and the Twins, if something significant came back in the trade. Wallner, Larnach, E-Rod, Walker Jenkins, Keirsey. That's a bit of a log jam. Maybe Wallner or Larnach COULD become a 1B. That might be a way to keep both going forward.
  25. I guess I'll 2nd that motion for Austin Hayes as a very affordable RH hitting corner OF. I'd be looking to make bigger moves by trading some expensive contracts and a few decent prospects. But you're not going to find many options that could work out at a cheaper price than Austin Hayes.
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