TopGunn#22
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Everything posted by TopGunn#22
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What Can the Twins Steal in 2024?
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think Rocco "is who he is" which disappoints me somewhat. Even Earl Weaver had guys that could steal a base and he let them. Paul Blair, Don Buford, Merv Rettenmumd, Mark Belanger. In the 70's Weaver unleashed Al Bumbry, Don Baylor and Rich Coggins. In 1973, Earl Weaver, the King of the 3-run HR manager had his Orioles steal 148 bases ! It was very frustrating to me that it took injuries and practically half the season for Rocco to realize that base stealing was "a thing" again. Maybe in the "Age of the Homerun or Strikeout" we can never expect to see the base stealing of the 1980's, but I thoroughly enjoyed seeing the SB make a comeback. Even with the Rocco Baldelli Twins. I'm not so sure that Castro's base stealing will be "mitigated" but it certainly could possibly be "diminished" if his playing time reduces due to better health and production of our regular lineup guys. I still think Castro will play enough that he should surpass 30 steals in 2024. I absolutely disagree with the strategy and philosophy that a manager must stay away from certain players stealing bases in order to keep them healthy. If you're healthy enough to be in the lineup you better be healthy enough to PLAY THE GAME. Buxton and Lewis need to run when the situation presents itself. I've read countless times that Lewis is "6 steps slower" after TWO ACL surgeries. Didn't seem to stop him going from 1st to 3rd on a single to RF. Didn't automatically disqualify him from scoring from 1st on a double to the gap. Julien and Martin have shown the ability to be very effective base stealers in the minors. Rocco's teams will never steal 148 bags in a season, but he DOES have some guys to work with that could lead to a more aggressive base stealing and base running team, and he should embrace that.- 22 replies
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- royce lewis
- willi castro
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I'm not rushing into any trade for either Julien or Lee unless a young, controllable Ace is involved. Someone like Luzardo for example. I'm much more willing to deal Polanco at this point (before he gets hurt) in some sort of package for a decent SP, but one who would not necessarily be a bona fide #2 behind Lopez. It's possible that Julien keeps hitting and his defense improves and he's worth MORE on the open market. It's also possible that Lee's offense takes a big step forward in spring training and either at St. Paul or Target Field to begin the season raising Lee's value. There is no need to be hasty unless a #1 or #2 is being offered (using Luzardo as the example). I WOULD be hasty with Polanco if the right deal came around.
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The contract Bryant has means the Rockies are never going to be able to move him unless they pay $100 million of it. On paper, Kris Bryant would be a good fit. RH bat, LF and possibly some 1B in his future. He IS talented. He's just NEVER healthy and already having Buxton means it would never work for the Twins. Larnach is an obvious choice if there is ANYTHING not named Dollander the twins would have interest in. Every day that goes by with E-Rod and Walker Jenkins showing promise and improvement, is a day that hastens any usefulness Larnach may have for the Twins. I just don't think there's anything on the roster or in the mid to high minors in Colorado even worth Larnach. I'll have to check on this a little more.
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When We Could See Top Twins Prospects Debut in 2024
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd also like to add that I agree with this comment from @chpettit19: "I'd treat him like every other starter in spring and if he's showing no struggles at the end of it I'd have no problem letting him go 125 if that's what my medical people are telling me he can do. If he can make 18 starts the first half of the year working his way up to 5 innings a start he'd be on track to take a rotation spot in 2025 after having been a bullpen weapon for the 2nd half of 2024. He's more talented than Varland. I'd much rather have Canterino in my 2025 rotation with Varland in the pen than the other way around." If I'm the Twins, I'm using Varland and Canterino as barometers for each other. Not that either one DETERMINES what the other will become, but more as a kind of balance between the two. Varland as already built up the innings to become a SP. But he struggles with giving up HR's and his command isn't consistently good enough. We all agree that SP's are more valuable than RP's but it also depends on how "good" each of those pitchers are in their role. The Twins have determined that Duran is more valuable closing out games. If Canterino or Varland becomes a Devin Williams type of 8th inning guy, they are more valuable than a 4th or 5th SP. Where I differ slightly with chpettit19 is that if Canterino is throwing bullets in spring training and early on in St. Paul, I'd just get him up to the Twins. Throwing 4-5 inning starts in July is not a bad strategy, in fact it's quite good. But if Canterino is lights out early on, I'd get him up, start by giving him 6th or 7th inning work in one-inning spurts and if things keep going well, get him in that 8th inning eventually. Varland continues to build on innings as a SP and is the first arm you call upon if needed. And again, a LOT of this is dependent on what the Twins do to add to their starting rotation before spring training.- 118 replies
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- austin martin
- brooks lee
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When We Could See Top Twins Prospects Debut in 2024
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great topic Ted ! I'm allowing that you just wanted to supply a "possible" call up in each month for discussions sake and don't really expect ALL of them to be called up. I think I would focus on Lee, Martin and Canterino. Matt Canterino: April, to me, is too aggressive but not completely out of the question. His doctor said he could be allowed to pitch up to 125 innings this upcoming season. That's interesting, since he's never actually been anywhere near that number his entire professional career. The Twins say they haven't given up on him as a possible SP. That's interesting, but considering the success that Duran has had, I'm taking that with a grain of salt. Canterino to the bullpen means you can be "all in" on Louie Varland as a SP for at least the next 2 seasons. Plus, I still expect the Twins to make some kind of move on the SP market either by trade (most likely) or FA. Canterino's stuff is just too good to ignore. If he proves his health in spring training and in St. Paul the numbers will be there and he's a Twin sometime in May. Austin Martin: He's the most likely candidate to break camp with the Twins because of the strong chance there will be "something" wrong with Buxton during spring training. I like his on-base skills and hitting him 9th to begin with would be fine with me. I think his athletic profile shows he could be a plus CF. If his on base skills impress (like Julien's did) you can always move him to the top or #2 of the lineup with Julien. That's some serious table-setting. April or May for Austin Martin. Brooks Lee: This is very dependent on whether or not Polanco is traded. I expect Polanco to be traded before spring training. That leaves Julien as the fulltime 2B. Each of these guys and their advancement will require at minimum a solid spring training. What changes Lee's dynamic is if he flat out impresses in spring training and then continues to do so in St. Paul. The other factor is what is done with Farmer. Castro can cover 2B and SS to some degree, but not like Farmer. If Farmer is also traded, and Lee impresses in spring training and then at St. Paul, the Twins will need someone like him to cover SS, 2B and 3B. I think May is realistic for Brooks Lee. The last guy I'll address that I think actually has a chance in 2024 is Severino. And as others have already pointed out this comes down to Kirilloff and Miranda. If one or both have health issues this creates a problem. This is also where the Twins could be or should be somewhat conflicted how to handle Julien. The optimal strategy for Julien would be to have him concentrate exclusively on 2B and improving defensively. However, Brooks Lee isn't going to be traded for a SP. It's not happening. So with Lee lurking as the superior defender the alternate strategy with Julien would be to work him at 1B as well. Severino has great power and probably too much swing & miss, but there are few power hitters who don't. If 1B becomes a problem due to continued health issues with Kirilloff and Miranda is the better pivot Julien to 1B and Lee to 2B? I think it is. And it will be obvious if Lee is raking at St. Paul.- 118 replies
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- austin martin
- brooks lee
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Five Remaining Free-Agent Fits For The Twins
TopGunn#22 replied to Lou Hennessy's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
JD, you make good points, but I would counter that Ray has much greater value than what the Giants gave up for him simply because he will only be available for half of the coming season and the Giants are clearly banking on having him longer. The Mariners have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Woo, Miller and DeSlcafani in addition to Emerson Hancock. They have been linked to Blake Snell as he is a Seattle native. They are cutting costs so it's not unreasonable to speculate that they may be open to trading Castillo as much to cut $24 million in payroll as it is open up a spot for Snell. I agree, the acquisition of Raley probably means they are out on Kepler. But a trade of Polanco and Emmanuel Rodriguez for Castillo, or a deal straight up for Julien is not unreasonable either. I'm not downplaying Lopez. Rather, I'm highlighting what a tremendous rotation the Twins would have with BOTH. There are certainly shortcomings with the trade simulator of Baseball Trade Values but for the vast majority of us who don't really have a clue how baseball front offices truly value their assets it's at least a starting point. Miami thinks they can contend for a Wild Card because they also have great pitching depth. Alcantara is missing the entire season. His "value" at present is -39.1 (that's Negative 39.1). Luzardo's value is +63.3. Alcantara's value has never been, nor will it ever be as low as it is, because not only is he missing 2024 but there's no guarantee he will make it back to the level he pitched at previously. Does Miami have the "patience" to wait for him. I've outlined how the Twins, in the early 70's didn't have the patience to wait for Jim Kaat and Luis Tiant and it cost them. I think it's a gamble worth taking. Miami needs a catcher, and Vasquez is is only a negative 10 in value and Larnach is a plus 3.6. Flawed as BBTV may be, it's a vast overpay for the Twins. I would even be willing to trade Polanco to Miami straight up, an even greater overpay. Polanco's $10 million dollar salary for 2024 is a one-million dollar surplus to Alcantara's. Miami adds a solid, switch hitting bat to their lineup for a player who isn't available for 2024. How would Miami feel about that? In the end, we're all just 12-year old boys trading baseball cards. The Twins FO doesn't read Twins Daily and say "You know, that TopGunn#22 guy sure has some GREAT ideas. Let's call Seattle, and then call Miami and see what they think?" :) Nobody ever thought the Orioles would trade Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson or the Cards would trade Ernie Broglio for Lou Brock. But it's always fun to speculate.- 47 replies
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- rhys hoskins
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Nicknames in Baseball - A Very Interesting Project
TopGunn#22 commented on Paul D's blog entry in Paul Danesi
Thumbs Up david borton !! -
It's interesting to see how Seattle is playing this so far. They are a team who clearly thinks they can compete in 2024. And probably not just for a division championship, especially with the pitching they have. The problem they ran into last season and couldn't overcome was a very anemic offensive team. They could certainly benefit from the length Polanco and/or Kepler or a Larnach could add to their current assortment of misfit hitters. Teoscar Hernandez was a massive fail for them in 2023. Suarez was a fail. They have the rotation and the bullpen to really be formidable in the playoffs if they could just have enough offense to scratch out some runs. It's somewhat similar to the Dodger teams of the 60's. Great rotation. Good bullpen. Who did you FEAR in their lineup? Wills? Willie Davis? Ron Fairly? Jim Lefebvre? Those were their BEST options. Very few people could name 2 other hitters. This current Twins FO has had the stones to deal a defending A.L. Batting Champ to get a top of the rotation starter. The Twins FO in the 60's made deals for an Ace (Dean Chance-we gave up a fading Jimmie Hall, Don Mincher and Geno Cimoli) and Chance won 20 games his first season with the Twins. We then traded an up and coming lefthander, Jim Merritt to the Reds to get a much needed upgrade at SS (Leo Cardenas) to start the 1969 season. Even though Merritt won 20 games in 1970, the Twins never regretted the 3 solid seasons they got from Cardenas (1969-1971). I would agree that Julien has already passed Polanco up. We've got enough depth to withstand trading him. Trading Kepler as well is really where the crunch begins. One of those bats being absent the twins lineup in 2023 is O.K. I'd offer that Julien will far surpass what Polanco will provide. Julien straight up for Castillo would be an overpay for the Twins. The Mariners would either have to send some money over to offset the $24 million dollar discrepancy between salaries. Probably $12-$15 easily. But for Castillo, I'd consider Julien straight up if a significant amount of cash was coming over with Brooks Lee waiting in the wings. Going into 2024 there is no need to have Julien, Lee AND Polanco.
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I rec'd DJL44 not because I totally agree with the trades, but because I like his thought process in how he could see this unfolding. I have a different take on what I think the Twins should do to take advantage of this. First, for those claiming Ryan Bliss made Polanco unpalatable to the Mariners, this trade with the Giants proves them wrong. Second, acquiring Haniger doesn't necessarily mean the Mariners wouldn't be interested in Kepler. A Kepler/Haniger platoon in RF could be quite potent for Seattle. It also shows how willing the Mariners are to cut payroll if they would part with a former Cy Young winner for a broken down Haniger and DeSclafani. The time is now for the Twins to strike for Luis Castillo. Replace Sonny Gray with the pitcher who was deemed his superior in every way in Cincinnati. Go get Luis Castillo and put him at the top of your rotation, ahead of Pablo Lopez. I'd love to see the Twins rolling into the post season with Castillo and Lopez pitching games 1 & 2. Maybe Seattle wouldn't be willing to accept BOTH Kepler and Polanco in a deal for Castillo as that would only save them $4 million or so. But start the talks in earnest and bring a true Ace to the Twins rotation. Dipoto has stated he will NOT be trading Miller or Woo. Kirby and Gilbert are too expensive (trade wise) for the Twins. The target for the Twins should be Castillo. Not DeSclafani.
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Five Remaining Free-Agent Fits For The Twins
TopGunn#22 replied to Lou Hennessy's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Great post Lou ! Interesting players to consider and good comments. I'm in agreement with Doc Bauer and I've made several posts regarding going after Luis Castillo. If you approach this thinking that we have a massive hole in our rotation with the departure of Sonny Gray why not make a blockbuster move and acquire the pitcher who was always considered his superior in every way in Cincinnati. Castillo would be our #1 pushing Lopez to #2. If the Twins are going to give up Kepler or Polanco, we all agree it has to be for a player of consequence. Why not Castillo? I think Seattle is willing to deal him. They just traded Robbie Ray to the Giants for Mitch Haniger (welcome home Mitch) and Anthony DeSclafani. Getting DeSclafani is key here. He's a back of the rotation piece and depth in case they DO trade Castillo. A trade of Kepler AND Polanco with a prospect like Prielipp included would net Seattle about a $4 million cut in payroll. Is that enough for them? Or would they want one of Kepler and Polanco and a prospect like Emmanuel Rodriguez to save more like $14 million? For the Twins, acquiring a pitcher of Castillo's talent and only adding $4 million to the payroll would be tremendous. I'll say this again: The Twins won the division last year and in 2020 because of pitching. We have young emerging hitters and it's reasonable to expect a better offensive year out of Correa and even Buxton (it couldn't be any worse than 2023). If we pitch, we're in every game. Castillo would be a tremendous addition for 2024 and beyond. Duval is someone I've mentioned before, but $8 million seems a bit high for him. No-at that price. Soler would be a great RH power bat, but anyone who has been primarily a DH isn't a fit with Buxton on the roster. If our DH spot was wide open, 550 AB's for Soler there would be fine. Stroman, to me, seems too expensive even at a lower price. I would prefer Castillo (obviously) or even a cheaper Trevor Bauer. I'm not a big fan of one-year contracts because I prefer cost certainty going forward and if it works, you're just dealing with they same problem one year later. But in specific circumstances they work. One year of Bauer would allow one additional year of growth for Louie Varland, David Festa, Marco Raya, as well as Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. It would also allow the Twins to use Varland in the bullpen and for spot starts. Maybe 100 innings. Varland in the pen means you have no need for Brebbia (especially with the Staumont signing). I like Hoskins, but would like to see the Kirilloff/Miranda development continue. Brebbia is O.K. but a middle man in the bullpen shouldn't be anywhere near a priority over SP and CF. I'll conclude with one more thought. A day or two ago, I mentioned my frustration with the self-imposed salary cut the Twins are imposing. I mentioned how shrewd a move would be if the Twins made a trade with Miami for Sandy Alcantara and had the patience to wait for him to pitch in 2025. Now we see the Giants making a deal for Robbie Ray KNOWING he can't pitch until at least the All Star break. The Giants are either incredibly desperate, or smart like a fox. They got a LH former Cy Young Award starting pitcher in a deal for Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSlafani !! Imagine if the Twins were able to get Sandy Alcantara from the Marlins for Trevor Larnach and Christian Vasquez? Alcantara has a VERY favorable contract based on his ability and what the market for pitching would be going forward. ($9 million in 2024, $17 million in 2025 & 2026). I'm not suggesting a rotation of Castillo, Alcantara, Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Paddack for 2025 am I?? Well, maybe I am. But $9 million for Alcantara to rehab for 2024 and $17 million for the next two years sure seems smart like a fox to me. Truthfully, acquiring BOTH Castillo and Alcantara is NOT realistic. But one of them SHOULD be. Our young hitters will be affordable for a couple more years. We've got one or two years before Ryan and Ober start to stretch the budget. If you didn't have to assume a maximum payroll of $125 million the Twins could do some really creative and exciting things.- 47 replies
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- rhys hoskins
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Stringer, I think you're echoing many of the concerns Twins fans have as this off season of inertia continues. Signing Josh Staumont as a lottery ticket bullpen piece could work out but is certainly not what we as Twins are hoping for. You're correct in pointing out that we haven't replaced either SP lost from our rotation. I've been advocating signing one FA and trading for another because Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Varland and Paddack while adequate still leaves the Twins with a razor thin margin to replace anyone who spends some time on the I.L. And of the 5 guys listed, only Lopez has shown the consistency to deliver innings. Ryan got to 160 last year and Ober got to 144. That's promising, but it's the first time either has reached those levels, and both spent time on the I.L. Paddack comes into 2024 with specific innings/pitches limits right out of the gate. Starting pitchers are starting to come off the board. Giolito and Montas were 2 guys I thought would be good fits for the Twins. There's still a chance to make a trade and/or sign a FA but the longer the Twins wait out the market the fewer their options will be. Martin "might" be a good platoon in CF with Castro if Buxton crashes and burns again, but a veteran RH bat like an Adam Duval but no move has been made on that front yet either. I think as Twins fans we're all anxious to see some moves get made now that we're in 2024. Decreeing a substantial cut in payroll due to TV revenue "uncertainty" on the heels of winning the division seemed a bit premature and somewhat shortsighted and the fanbase certainly has a right to be disappointed in that approach. Knowing that a Polanco, Kepler, Farmer or Vasquez probably needs to be traded just to even out any additional financial burdens in acquiring a couple of solid starting pitchers is frustrating but we as fans "get it" as well. We want to defend that division title and we want to see the continued growth and improvement of our young core. But each day that goes by without meaningful steps taken to address these roster issues, both frontline talent and depth, is as Joe Mauer would say "Frustrating..."
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Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?
TopGunn#22 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yeah, Castillo would be a tremendous addition and probably wouldn't require a Brooks Lee or Julien price tag. This is why the team's self imposed budget cut is problematic following a division championship and their first playoff wins in almost two decades. Castillo is a perfect addition, IF you're willing to take on the salary. If you're already saving $10 million by moving Polanco, that makes a Castillo acquisition more affordable. Seattle doesn't need to include a bunch of cash in the trade (like Boston did with the $17 million to the Braves for Chris Sale). The Mariners move $22 million off their books and take on about $13-$14 million from the Twins. It's also disappointing that it seems like the Twins have no interest (at least as I write this today) in looking at really good pitchers like Sandy Alcantara and Brandon Woodruff. These are guys that normally wouldn't be attainable but are available because they are going to miss 2024 do to injuries. Woodruff, as a free agent, would require a 2-year minimum contract in which you would pay him to rehab for all of 2024 and then pay him a relatively expensive one-year deal for 2025. To me, Alcantara is a very attractive option if you have the patience to wait for the reward. He's going to miss 2024 with Tommy John. He's got a contract that will pay him for the next 3 seasons (2025-2027) that would be extremely affordable given the current market. You would have to pay him $9 million to rehab in 2024. He would then be paid $17 million per season for 2025 & 2026. Finally, there is a Club Option of $21 million for 2027. If it was up to me, I'd offer Polanco straight up for Alcantara right NOW. The Twins gain $2 million of salary relief in the one-for-one swap but get nothing out of Alcantara for 2024. But for the next 2 seasons they get a former Cy Young Award winner who would be our #1 at $17 million per season. And if 2025 & 2026 works out well for Alcantara and the Twins, not only do the Twins pick up his 2027 option at a bargain $21 (compared to CURRENT market values-imagine how affordable $21 million would be 4 years from now). They could even negotiate an extension. Yes, you'd have nothing to show for it in 2024. That would hurt with a team that we expect should be able to defend their division crown. But it would be a brilliant move for the future. Julien is already Twin. Brooks Lee will be one this year. Farmer, if kept is a better defensive player than Polanco and he's a RH hitter. Depth is nice. But the Twins can survive 2024 without Polanco. To add a pitcher of Alcantara's talent at the cost of Polanco would be tremendous. Could the Twins exhibit the patience to make it happen? It brings me back to my youth when the Twins made a blockbuster trade with the Cleveland Guardians and acquired one of my favorite pitchers, Luis Tiant, following the 1969 season. The Twins had just won the very first American League Western Division Crown and they dealt Dean Chance, Bob Miller, Craig Nettles and Ted Uhlaender to the tribe for Tiant and Stan Williams. Williams would have an outstanding 1970 for the Twins but Tiant battled various arm issues to a 7-3 record with a 3.60 ERA. Finally, a broken wrist ended his season. But the Twins couldn't be patient enough to let him get healthy and on March 31st prior to the beginning of the 1971 season, the Twins released him. The Red Sox picked Tiant up and stuck with him through a lousy 1971 season. But in 1972, Tiant went 15-6 with a sparkling 1.91 ERA and went on to be quite a pitcher for the Red Sox in the mid 1970's. Would the Twins have the patience and long range thinking to acquire Sandy Alcantara? -
Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?
TopGunn#22 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The idea of a Manoah for Polanco trade is possible and sensible. Both teams are taking a risk. Will Polanco stay healthy (or at least reasonably healthy)? Because if he does, he will produce at a level that the Blue Jays would be happy with. And it's a risk for the Blue Jays to give up a 25 year old pitcher who showed some real promise. The Twins are risking depth and a solid switch-hitting bat in their lineup who is VERY affordable at $10 million for 2024 and affords a team option for 2025. If 2024 goes well, it's an easy decision to pick up that option. If not, you have an easy out and move on. Plus, the Twins are risking which Manoah they get. The 2021-2022 version who is All Star caliber or the atrocious 2023 version that couldn't even figure it out in the minors? To me, the Blue Jays are risking a little more than the Twins because of Manoah's youth and potential. So I would say a straight one-for-one deal wouldn't be enough. The Twins will have to overpay somewhat. Twins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Alek Manoah SP 11.8 Total Value: 11.80 Blue Jays NAME POSITION SURPLUS Jorge Polanco 2B 9.4 Josh Winder LRP 3.9 Total Value: 13.30 This is a deal I think could work and I'd be willing to do if I was either team. The Twins could swap Winder out with someone like Larnach (3.6) or Theilbar (3.6) and I wouldn't be surprised if discussions revolved around Polanco and something of a similar value to Larnach-Winder-Theilbar. In my opinion, this is the only type of deal where Polanco IS the primary piece being moved for someone who could be a part of our rotation. But Manoah is NOT the #2 guy in the rotation. At this stage, he's no better than #5 or #6. He has the potential to be #3 or #2, but that's if he becomes the 2021-2022 version of himself again, and that is the top end of hopeful expectation. He may never approach that level of success again. -
Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?
TopGunn#22 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I believe Castillo should be the target from the Mariners. I disagree with the website that had a couple Mariners EACH having a better WAR than Polanco. Jorge is a solid bat and Ryan Bliss isn't this future All Star ready to step in at 2B. The Mariners are HURTING for offense and they have GAPING holes at 3B and 2B. Larnach returns to the Great Northwest to provide LH pop in a corner outfield and Jax is a key addition to the Mariner bullpen. In a year when the Twins are projecting a payroll of $120-$125 million, Castillo isn't cheap, but he provides cost-certainty and would vault to #1 in our rotation. I'd love to have a playoff rotation headed by Castillo and Lopez. It's rated a slight overpay for the Twins. That's Fine. Seattle gets to further trim payroll and add a couple bats to their lineup. The Twins can replace Jax with a younger pitcher, possibly Varland for 2024 with the addition of Castillo to the top of our rotation. This is the only way Polanco is involved in bringing a good SP to the Twins. He needs to be a piece. Not the centerpiece. It's interesting though, the Mariners have been linked to Blake Snell because he's a Seattle native and just today, MLB Network said they were "in" on Dylan Cease in a possible trade. One (Snell) would cost more than Castillo in payroll. The other (Cease) would be quite costly in prospects. We are in the season of WILD rumors. It's hard to believe anything you hear. -
Where Will Jorge Polanco Be Traded?
TopGunn#22 replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Twins NAME POSITION SURPLUS Luis Castillo SP 22.7 Total Value: 22.70 Mariners NAME POSITION SURPLUS Trevor Larnach OF 3.6 Griffin Jax RP 14.4 Jorge Polanco 2B 9.4 Total Value: 27.40 -
Nicknames in Baseball - A Very Interesting Project
TopGunn#22 commented on Paul D's blog entry in Paul Danesi
Great article. Great comments. Don Drysdale was "The Big D." Gary Matthews was "The Sarge." Orel Hershiser was "The Bulldog." Frank Howard was "Hondo." Those are a couple I've just come up with off the top of my head. -
The Twins' New Broadcast Tandem Could Be Generational
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I like Provus a lot. Happy they picked him. It just made sense. I think Justin Morneau has come a long way and I like him too. Smalley has that LONG time connection to the game that always makes him interesting. Once we find out HOW and WHERE we can watch Twins baseball, it's going to be GREAT !!- 35 replies
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Am I crazy? SP Trade proposal.
TopGunn#22 replied to Joe A. Preusser's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
That's probably what it would cost (or very close to what it would cost) and it's just too rich for my taste. And now that two legit targets for the Twins have signed elsewhere (Giolito & Montas) the pickings are starting to get slimmer for our favorite baseball team. Thanks for submitting !! -
Ranking Twins Players By Regression Risk in 2024
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with you all. Each of these guys could and probably will regress to some degree. I compare Castro to an emerging Cesar Tovar. Great utility guy with speed off the bench, Tovar grew into a full-time, regular player, and a very good one at that. Castro may not quite be Tovar, but he could be close. As was pointed out, he's entering his prime at age 27. Maybe he gets even better. Stewart? Bullpen guys, especially bullpen guys who are "oft injured" are impossible to predict. Kepler? I'd bet on some type of regression. Will it be HUGE with Max being 2021 & 2022 bad? I hope not. But he is still one of our primary trade chips this off-season. Jeffers is a really tough call. In some respects I'm more worried about him than Kepler. This is why it's probably necessary to keep Vasquez around in 2024. Vasquez should also be a better hitter than in 2023. The bar is pretty low for him to improve offensively.- 15 replies
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- willi castro
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A Tiny Schedule Perk for the 2024 Twins
TopGunn#22 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
It certainly IS an advantage to be playing the Dodgers in Minnesota so early in April. But it's also a bit of a shame as well. Target Field should be PACKED for those games, but if the weather is early April nasty, that could affect the box office negatively. That Dodgers lineup is going to be pretty top heavy with Mookie-Ohtani-Freeman-Will Smith in the first 4 spots. How the rest of the Dodger lineup does will depend on which version of Max Muncy they get in 2024 and how young players like Lux, Outman, Vargas and Busch progress. The first 4 could be epic in terms of runs scored and runs driven in. The last 4 could be pretty weak. -
Would You Double Down on Donny Barrels?
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would say "NO." The Twins got about all they needed from "Donny Barrels" in 2023 but his versatility is an illusion. He's well below average defensively anywhere they would play him. As a DH, he's far too "punch-less" to be a positive. With Miranda, Martin and Lee the Twins have everywhere covered that Solano could be. And at $3-$3.25 million that's far too rich for a team looking to cut payroll rather than add. Check out what each of our bullpen candidates would cost and compare it to the cost of Solano. Theilbar is our most expensive bullpen arm. He will probably have at minimum two stints on the injured list this season. So it's probably time to include Theilbar in a deal with a team like Seattle or Miami for a starting pitcher. Just like with Solano, the Twins have younger options and the time has come to promote them. Let the youth movement continue. -
Greatest Twins Teams of All Time: 1970
TopGunn#22 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Those Oriole teams were epic. 1969: 109 wins. 1970: 108 wins. 1971: 101 wins (with FOUR 20-game winners). One other thing I would like to mention as we review and reminisce about past great Twins teams is how blessed we've been through the years with the broadcasters. From the inception of the Twins in 1961 and the talent laden and entertaining team of Herb Carneal, Ray Scott, Merele Harmon and Halsey Hall, to Ted Robinson, John Gordon, Dick Bremer and Cory Provus we've had some really solid play-by-play people. There are some not so good, like Dan Gladden but very few teams can boast a lineup like the Twins have had. We've been lucky for Vikings football, with guys Ray Scott and Joe McConnell (while now being burdened with PA). Wolves basketball has had Kevin Harlan and Kevin McHale and a whole host of other solid voices including the current team and North Stars/Wild Hockey has always been top shelf. The New Year is a time to count blessings. Here's to the voices that have called the games of our favorite Minnesota teams through the years !!- 20 replies
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- harmon killebrew
- tony oliva
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Greatest Twins Teams of All Time: 1970
TopGunn#22 replied to Matt Braun's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
East Coast twin is correct. Tiant fractured his shoulder blade and wasn't available to pitch in the post season. He was turning 30 for the 1971 season and the Twins did not have the patience to wait for him to get healthy. He struggled with the Red Sox in 1971, going 1-7 but the Red Sox (unlike the Twins) knew they had something if they could get him healthy. Tiant was back to his brilliant self in 1972 winning 15 games, losing just 6, with an ERA of 1.91. 1970 was the LAST great season for Killebrew. It was the 2nd to last great season for Oliva (he won the batting title in 1971) and it wasn't long to the end of Perry, Boswell, Perranoski, and Tovar. Prior to the 1972 season, the Twins traded Perry and Perronoski to the Tigers, Tommy Hall was shipped to the Reds for Wayne Granger, and the team would start looking very different in 1973 & 1974. I've always kind of looked at the 1969-1970 Twins as a great combination of back to back seasons. And I loved their pinstriped uniforms with the Blue Twins trimmed in Red and Blue numbers on the back. Best uni's they've ever had. 1977 was the last gasp of fun until about 1984.- 20 replies
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- harmon killebrew
- tony oliva
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Projecting Walker Jenkins's Percentile Outcomes
TopGunn#22 replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
This was a fun read. I think we all HOPE he can be a Kyle Tucker/Bryce Harper type of player. Hitting in the heart of the order for the Twins with Royce Lewis for a decade of playoff appearances and a couple of World Series wins. It's too early to count on anything, but I'm looking forward to reading about his progress on Twins Daily all year long. I hope he can make it to AA this season. start 2025 at AA and quickly move to St. Paul before finally getting a shot either before of after the All Star Game in 2025. My dream scenario is that he's up sometime in 2025 and does very well. Will he still be eligible for ROY in 2026 or does he just outright WIN IT in 2025. That's MY dream. :)- 23 replies
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- walker jenkins
- jarred kelenic
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I would add not to sleep on the recent acquisition of Nico Goodrum. He's an excellent glove in the infield. He could very well make Farmer expendable and allow Castro to be used a a CF/LF platoon player. Goodrum, if he hits just a little bit becomes the preferred backup/defensive replacement at SS, 2B and 3B and is insurance for the Twins not to rush Brooks Lee. It's still possible that Lee makes the team out of spring training if he sizzles. But I see Lee more as a June/All Star break callup if Goodrum is working out.
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- max kepler
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