TopGunn#22

I'm going to be kind of wishy washy on this "debate" and just say that I'm pretty happy we have both and even though they are both projected to be a SS, one of them probably won't end up there. I'm going to predict Lewis ends up at SS and Lee becomes a 3B who will be the next Chipper Jones. I'll take that.

Nicely done Doc Munson ! Judge is a pipe dream, but Correa is indeed possible. You laid out how "affordable" the bulk of this roster is. Moving Polanco for SP'ing frees up even more money to be spent elsewhere. Maybe a trade could be made where the Twins take on a bigger contract to fill a void. For example, but not necessarily THE trade: Acquire Kris Bryant from the Rockies to be our RH hitting LF'er. In a deal like this, Colorado would have to to chip in a sizeable portion of his salary. How desperate are the Rockies to mitigate some of that salary pressure ? It's not a perfect scenario because Bryant is as injury prone as Buxton, but imagine if he was healthy and playing 140 games?

It's true that Bogaerts has never played 2B. The data and metrics come from all his chances while fielding on the RF side of 2B in shifts. It's imperfect, I agree, but not outlandish to project that Bogaerts would be able to make a smooth transition to 2B. Anyone who watched the Twins fail time and again in situational hitting and hitting in general last season knows that a consistent bat like Bogaerts hitting 2-3 or 4 in our lineup would be a good thing. And I keep coming back to Lewis, Lee and even Miller. It's not like we have just ONE decent prospect for SS, we have several. Miller may be a long shot, but Lewis and Lee are the real deal. Any move we make at SS needs to be done with a clear plan of where Lewis and Lee would end up if someone like Correa was signed for 8 years, $288 million ($36 million average annual value) because that's probably the low end for someone like Correa.

One thing TK had going for him was he always had clearly defined "roles" for his BP guys. Rocco frustrates me because I can't figure out what his roles are for his BP. I'm not sure Rocco knows. I think Lopez will be just fine and he and Duran will be the closers.

Rosterman, Murphy would be VERY expensive. That's why I'd recommend trading for Jansen from Toronto. He's not as good, but he's MILES ahead of anyone we have. I'd like to use some leftover trade capital to try to land someone like Woodruff or Lopez to head our staff.

I read this article and thought the same thing. Correa is still #1 but I'd move Bogaerts up to #2. It appears Bogaerts would be a solid second baseman if Lewis or Lee blossom into the SS we all hope for. There is nothing not to like about Bogaerts BAT !

I see Martin as a contender for LF and as a super utility guy who could grow into a bigger role. The Twins didn't hand Ceasar Tovar an exclusive position after acquiring him from the Reds. I see Martin as a similar type of player who grew into his role. Martin could certainly be the RH backup for CF as Kepler could be the LH backup. I would look to move Larnach as a primary piece in a deal to acquire Woodruff or Pablo Lopez. With our glut of LH hitting OF'ers, Larnach has the most "current" value at 30.4 (BTV). Kepler as a 4th OF and Kirilloff and Wallner is plenty of LH depth if someone is hurt or not playing well.

Interesting moves. Adding a lot of RH bats. You're missing Jorge Lopez in the bullpen at $3 million so maybe subtract Trevor May and his $6 million and save $3 million. I like the Graveman addition. I think Robertson at that point is overkill. You could save another $8 million. Acquiring Singer is tremendous, maybe see if you can get Mondesi as well. It would be a gamble, but if the kid could ever stay healthy there is BIG upside. Then instead of Pollack you would save another $6 million and have a cheaper option in Mondesi. You could get closer to a more realistic budget, or spend that money somewhere else.

I see that you're loading up on prospects for the future Coom-Dog, but this roster would have attendance fall off a cliff and the Twins out of any kind of contention by Memorial Day. If we're willing to throw nearly $18 million annually at Taillon, why not just spend $5 million more per year and get someone "better." The re-do of this seasons catching combo won't do any better than this year, and would probably do worse. I do like that you brought back Correa. But if the Twins do indeed bring him back they will most certainly address the catching situation as well as add a "quality" SP. Taillon just doesn't move the needle. They should be looking to add someone thru FA or a trade that would be the #1 of our rotation. Not a #3 or #4.

Tremendous job JY ! My only quibble is that Jansen is twice the player Jeffers is. Jansen is your starter. Abreu is a bold signing but could be a great middle of the order hitter, ala Nelson Cruz.

I like the targets (Correa and Rodon). I could see the team making ONE big splurge on a FA. Whether that's Correa (or Bogaerts) or Rodon is yet to be determined. Correa is FAR superior to Bogaerts with the glove. Bogaerts "might" have a tiny edge with the bat. Either would be good, but with Lewis and Lee in the pipeline, the idea of an 8-10 year contract for a SS seems a bad fit. Neither Lee or Lewis may make it as a SS, but the fact the Twins have TWO solid prospects has me thinking Bogaerts and Senga. Both are the cheaper option leaving the Twins with a little more payroll flexibility. But if the Twins were to bring back Correa on a 3-year $120 or a 4-year $150 deal I would like to see the Twins be aggressive on the trade market. Put a deal together with Toronto for Jansen 26.6 and Lourdes Gurriel 5.6 (BTV). Total 32.20 The Twins deal Larnach 30.4 and Enlow 2.2 for a total of 32.40. You now have Jansen behind the plate and Lourdes Gurriel a RH bat in LF. Then, I call the Brewers and offer Ober 19.50, Jeffers 13.0 and Winder 8.3 (total 40.8) for Brandon Woodruff 37.8 (BTV). Twins now have the following lineup: C Janson, 1B Arraez, 2B Polanco, SS Correa, 3B Urshela, LF Gurriel, CF Buxton, RF Wallner, Miranda DH. Kepler is 4th OF'er as a defensive replacement for Wallner and primary Buxton backup for CF. Gordon is also an outfield/infield backup. Kirilloff is in this lineup either at 1B or RF depending on his recovery. If he's healthy, he will hit, and somebody will sit. By dealing Jeffers I have no backup catcher (Brewers need a catcher for the future). I'll pick up a Jason Castro type for pennies. Pitching staff SP's: Woodruff, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Ryan. With Woodruff, you have stability at the top. Varland & SWR would be available for spot starts or win long relief/piggyback jobs with Mahle and Maeda needing to be built up. Duran and Lopez head a BP that also features Jax, Theilbar, Alcala, with Megill and Sands. I don't know what that total payroll is, but I don't think it's over $150 million. Depending on how much money I have left to spend (if I indeed have any) a guy like Senga intrigues me to replace Maeda in the rotation while Kenta ramps up. In the end, I've added an ACE (that term is debatable I know), a starting caliber catcher, a RH bat for the outfield and a cornerstone Gold Glove, clutch hitting SS. A team like that should hold Twins fans interest into September and hopefully beyond and could certainly compete with the Guardians and White Sox. It's a plan for the NOW and for the future as Lewis and Lee emerge.

There have been several posts written about the Twins catching situation. I've had comments in each. First, I've watched a lot of baseball (60-years worth) and played a bit as well. I could always be wrong, but I just don't think Jeffers is a starter, and he may even be a below average backup. I agree that we have no one on the farm with the exception of Noah Cardenas and he's a minimum of 2-years away. Murphy is too expensive if you want to use assets (both money and players) to shore up other areas. Look to trade for a Danny Jansen or Travis d'Arnaud. William Contreras is the catcher of the future in Atlanta. d'Arnaud is 33 years old and wouldn't have a prohibitive cost (13.3 BTV). And he could fill in for the 2-years it would take to see Cardenas make the team. The best option is Jansen from the Blue Jays. They have 3 guys who should all be full time catchers. The most any team can accommodate is TWO. Gabe Moreno is their star of the future and this kid is GOOD. He got a taste of the big leagues this season and I believe will be their #1. Alejandro Kirk is also very good and will get AB's at DH in addition to playing catcher. Jansen is a pretty darn good catcher and hitter who has battled some injuries only to see himself shoved down the pecking order because the other two guys are REALLY good. His BTV is 26.6. Murphy's is almost 3-times that. Call the Blue Jays. See what they're interested in. Make a deal. Jeffers is NOT the answer.

I'm with tony&rodney on this one. We are a team who's manager still manages like it's 2019. Sorry Rocco, the Twins ain't hittin' 310 HR's in a season anytime soon. Tony&rodney correctly pointed out that we are in fact, a poor "baserunning" team. Our 3B coach sent MANY runners who were pegged out at the plate. As a team the Twins have players who could run: Buxton, Gordon, Kepler. But even SLOW runners can steal a base if you're aggressive enough and they're coached properly. I "rec" a lot of stuff mikelink writes, but I disagree with the "don't let Buxton run, he might get hurt" line of thinking. It's long past time to stop trying to "manage" Byron into better health. Let's just take the shackles off and let him play...and what comes will come. "FREE BYRON!!!" :)

Nice article and discussion. However, as good as Murphy is, he's just too expensive in trade capital. You could get get 80% of Murphy with someone like Danny Jansen at a much lower cost. Jeffers is a career backup. I've seen enough and to me, he's not a starter. On the farm, the cupboard is bare for any help in the next two years. SS and #1 SP are bigger priorities, but a better catching option isn't far behind. An upgrade at catcher is needed and probably needs to come via a trade.

Unlike Seth, I'm a big uniform guy and players number guy. Stop messing with what is solid. Bring back the pinstripe uniforms of the 60's/early 70's with the BLUE "Twins" and numerals. The tree scape on the sides of the TC is hideous.

I've raised the possibility that the Twins could look at Duran as a starter in other threads. The "prevailing" logic is that he would pitch more innings as a starter and more "quality" innings are better than fewer. I still think the F.O. will consider this as an option. However, when it comes down to what I would do I'm pretty firm where I stand on this issue. Many of my thoughts have already been mentioned: His history is that as a starter he tends to wear down and get hurt. He's REALLY good as a closer or a late inning/high leverage guy. I want a guy like him that can shut down a potential game losing situation. Our starting rotation was always thin, with guys like Shoemaker, Happ, Bundy and Archer being counted on for major innings and effectiveness. Our starting rotation hasn't boasted this much depth in awhile. And if a trade (Woodruff, Pablo Lopez) or F.A. signing (Rodon, Senga) happens it further cements that the Twins will leave Duran in the BP. The next guy that falls into this kind of discussion is Matt Canterino. Tremendous Stuff ! Tremendous upside. Can he stay healthy as a SP or just to get some usage out of him, does he need to transition to a BP role. Nobody is any good to you if they are not available. For the Twins, they need to determine at what role is Matt Canterino "available." I think they already know about Duran.

I like the salary structure Indiana has laid out. The Twins have some young potential SS talent coming up their pipeline. They don't know if any of them could cut it at the Major League level. BUT...they could, and not just cut it, but a Lewis or Lee could turn out to be outstanding SS's. Front load the deal. Give Correa opt outs at 4 years and 6 years. You insure you would have Correa for 3 productive years. You give yourself time to see how Lewis, Lee and Miller develop. You're not wasting time on has-beens like Iglesias or Andrus. You're building for the "now" with an eye on the future.

Raya is the guy to keep an eye on but he's at least a couple years away. I agree about Festa, could have/should have been mentioned. he's a little closer than the others. What is the latest on Matt Canterino. I still have high hopes for him but he's got to overcome the injury bug.

Anybody with any potential is a couple of years away and Jeffers projects to be a career backup who does nothing well but isn't horrible at anything except throwing out base stealers (some of that is on our pitchers). Better invest in a guy who can help them immediately.

Contreras would be a primary option. Sorry, I just don't think Jeffers will EVER hit and see him as a career backup. Putting any faith in Jeffers giving them anything other than mediocre production both offensively and defensively is misplaced hope. All Contreras would cost them is money. Otherwise, a trade for one of the Blue Jays catchers or Travis d'Arnaud from the Braves is needed. William Contreras is the catcher of the future in Atlanta. Maybe they would part with d'Arnaud. And as long as it seems a near certainty that Correa will move on taking the money it would take to keep him and signing someone like Bogaerts and shoring up the catcher position seems like a good idea. What if the Twins could parlay the loss of Correa into the additions of Bogaerts, Contreras and Woodruff (trade). It's tough to see Correa move on, but that kind of reallocation of assets would make the Twins a much better team for 2023.

GREAT discussion ! This is why I love this site. The reason an "Ace" should always be sought is that pitching and defense always keeps you competitive. I completely agree with the rhetorical question "What is an Ace?" It's kind of like, "I know it when I see it." An "Ace" is someone who is great year in and year out, not a guy who flashes for a season (Maeda in 2020 or 1969 20-game winner Dave Boswell). Dave Boswell is an example of a "good" pitcher who was never an "Ace" in ancient Twins parlance. Rodon would be expensive and could be an injury risk, but if healthy would certainly sit at the top of our rotation. However, I think a guy like Brandon Woodruff is perfect for the Twins. Not really an injury risk, and the guy is a horse. He would eat innings while also being very effective. He's the kind of guy you can count on to give your BP a rest on a consistent basis. I have speculated that a trade with the Brewers where Ober and other trade capital goes over could get it done. A pitcher like Woodruff has a wave effect on the entire pitching staff providing stability from the top. But I don't disagree that our offense needs a couple more consistent bats as well and to me, Jeffers is a black hole. My trade target for catcher would be Jansen from Toronto. His BTV is 26.6 not cheap but not enormous either. Put a trade package together and hit him 7th in the lineup. Catcher Black Hole problem solved. The Blue Jays can't play Kirk, Moreno and Jansen effectively. One of them needs to go and Jansen is probably the one. I'd look to get Lourdes Gurriel (5.60 BTV) as well. RH outfield bat solved ! Jansen and Gurriel would be a 31.2 BTV. Larnach alone could probably get it done. I'd probably add a little just to sweeten the deal. Woodruff, Jansen and Lourdes Gurriel. That would be pretty strategic and effective.

Nice job mitch ! I appreciate the time and thought you put into this. I'm with tony&rodney on this though. I'd like to trade for a stud #1 to head the rotation. I like the Bogaerts signing if Correa signs elsewhere. He's a solid bat, possibly more consistent than Correa, but nowhere near the glove. He could transition to 3B in a year or two while the Twins track Lewis, Lee and even Miller. So who between Lopez or Woodruff should we go for? Both of them are relatively affordable for two more years. Lopez is valued at 38.7 and Woodruff at 37.8 according to BTV. A trade of Woodruff (37.8) for Miranda 26.4, Winder 8.3 and Cavaco 2.4 (40.0) would work. You could do the same for Pablo Lopez. Lopez is younger and very talented. Woodruff is a horse who would be that guy you could count on for 6-7 innings every outing. Tough call, but I'd go for Woodruff. He's just more consistent. A staff of Woodruff, Gray, Ryan, Mahle and Ober would be solid. I'd break Maeda in slowly and if one of the SP's not named Woodruff wasn't sharp, Maeda could move into his spot. Nothing against Narvaez, I'd start him instead of Jeffers (I think Jeffers is pretty much a backup). But I still want to call Toronto and get Kirk or Jansen to be our primary catcher. I've got to look at Toronto to see what they could use and determine the values of Kirk and Jansen. Gabe Moreno is their hot young catching prospect who got a decent look this year and Toronto has plans for him. They can't play all three. Stay tuned on this one.

I would MUCH rather trade for a proven workhorse and a guy who would be our clear #1 than signing Rodon. I still like Senga as a sneaky good value. But, you can just positively NEVER have too much pitching. I wouldn't include Lee or Lewis or Miranda in any deal, and I really doubt the Brewers would want Lewis with his sketchy injury history. The Twins have plenty of talent in the pipeline. They are far from this empty cupboard some are claiming. I would do a deal something like Ober, 19.5 BTV, Winder 8.3 and Celistino 11.2. Woodruff's value is 37.8. This deal is a 39.0 value. coming back from the Twins. The Brew Crew gets two young, controllable pitchers and a RH CF'er. If they could buy into a Polanco move to 1B or 3B you could mix and match from that. It's hard to predict what the Brewers will do, but I'd be on the phone finding out in a heartbeat. The possibility of adding Woodruff to the top of our rotation? I say YES ! YES !! YES !! You can NEVER have too much pitching. Because as long as you have pitching, you're always in the game.

Ted, this is the conundrum of the Twins FO. They were brought in to develop a pitching pipeline, but what happens to that plan when season after season after season the young pitchers suffer injuries that stunt their development ? Well, you go out and get guys like Mahle and Gray. I see where "jun" is coming from about getting 3 effective long relievers but I would argue they have them already. Winder, Varland and Maeda should fill those roles. It's the perfect way to ease Maeda back after TJ surgery and I like putting young guns like Winder and Varland in those roles. Sometimes they would be high leverage, sometimes low but that's the role I'd season those guys up with. Ober as well if he's not already in the rotation. The Twins may not have guys like Mahle and Maeda ready to be starters at the opening bell next season. That's why this FO needs to "evolve" their strategy and either sign a Rodon or Senga, OR, trade for someone like a Pablo Lopez or Brandon Woodruff. Woodruff would cost a LOT, but he would be the clear #1 and someone you could hand the ball to in a playoff series opening game and have a solid expectation for a win (and wouldn't a playoff win be a GOOD thing Twins fans)?? The cost for Woodruff was floated in an earlier post by someone. It included names like Brooks Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Balazovic, Winder, not sure if Larnach or Kepler were mentioned. The Brewers would need a pitcher coming back as well as some young talent. Maybe a LH hitting outfielder ? Let's dig into this: Trade #1 Twins get Woodruff 37.80 Brewers get Ober 19.5, Polanco 15.8 (would move to 3B) and Cavaco 2.4 = 37.70 Trade #2 Twins get Woodruff 37.80 Brewers get Ober 19.5, Winder 8.3 and Celestino 11.2 = 39.00 There really isn't anybody else on the Brewers I would go for. Everyone they have is either REALLY expensive or a very low value. BTV only gives Kirilloff a .70 rating. Better off keeping him. Brooks Lee is 38.9 so a one for one swap could happen, but the Twins shouldn't do it. Lewis still has 20.4 value but is also someone the Twins wouldn't part with. Trade #2 is probably better for the Brewers because there is uncertainty moving Polanco to 3B (although they would LOVE his bat). With Wong at 2B and Adames at SS a move would be necessary unless Polanco backed up both and DH'd. Larnach's value is 30.4 so him and Winder could easily get it done and I'd do that trade to add a Stud Bulldog like Woodruff at the top of my rotation. Remember, trading Larnach still leaves the Twins with Kirilloff, Kepler and Wallner. Someone there is expendable and with Kirilloff's value plummeting he's not going anywhere.

Agree 100%. Pay for quality, get quality results. A gamble here and there to me is acceptable. To build an entire strategy around hitting it big on the Happ, Shoemaker, Archer and Bundy types just wreaks of a half-hearted effort. Pay for quality. Get quality results. Pick your spots. I would say that even though the Twins did not make the playoffs, the Correa move justifies this philosopy: Pay for quality. Get quality results.