TopGunn#22

Everybody knows my thoughts on this topic as I've suggested trading Arraez frequently. I love to watch his AB's but I'm firmly in the camp that he's certainly replaceable. It would take a "Package" of players with Arraez the headliner to secure Frankie Montas from the A's. Castillo from the Reds would cost even more. If some are repulsed by the idea of putting a package together for Arraez in a deal for pitching, then using Arraez alone should get you either Bassitt or Manaea and a little something more from Oakland. The Marlins need HITTERS. The N.L. now has the DH. They are overflowing with young pitchers. The Twins could offer Arraez to Miami and look at guys like Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo as possibilities. Bottom Line: Arraez is replaceable. The Twins have an acute need for Starting Pitching. I believe Miranda is READY and I think he'll be BETTER than Arraez. I deal Arraez as much for pitching as to get Miranda up here and in the lineup. He's got nothing more to prove at St. Paul.

The reason why you do a trade like this is to compete in 2022 and BEYOND. The strategic reason you do a trade like this is you need stability in your starting rotation. Ryan and Ober are 2nd year guys. Everyone else with any upside is a rookie. Even if you piggyback 8 SP's each going 3-4 innings you will have some rocky outings that put an incredible strain on your starting staff & bullpen. You don't make this trade thinking only of 2022. You make it to retain Montas and build through your young SP's while protecting their arms/innings/pitches as much as you can throughout the stresses of a 162 game regular season. The only time your focus should be short, is Game #7 of the World Series.

Cody, thank you for stimulating the discussion with an excellent "scenario." I'm late to comment as I was at Mass this morning and had some errands to run afterward. But being late gives me a chance to say while I respect your viewpoint, I'm on board with Dr. Gast, tony&rodney and Mike8791. I have always stated that that we should be gearing up to contend in 2022. We were back to back division winners in 2019 and the shortened 2020. We handed the division last year to the White Sox when our front office completely failed and the Sox FO was stellar. Good for the White Sox. If our "dynamic duo" wants to remain employed they can't let the current pitching staff remain the status quo. The trade you put forward is very fair according to Baseball Trade Values, and since I manage a TV station sales team (and am not employed by a MLB front office) I use that as my baseline to see if I'm realistic or insane. The only guy in your trade I would feel some unease about is Duran. I love Arraez. But with Miranda, Martin and Lewis we really need to move him for pitching. He's just superfluous going forward. A trade for Montas is needed not just for 2022 but for the seasons to come. As I was reading the other comments I was thinking "why couldn't we acquire Montas and then either sign Story for SS or Rodon to go WITH Montas ?? Others subsequently made those points. I could see myself bargaining with the A's to NOT include Duran (I see him as our future closer) by including Sabato/Wallner Rooker or Dobnak. Getting Montas without giving up Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, or SWR is a WIN ! I fervently want Canterino to be a stud SP for the Twins, but I could also live with him as our future closer if we HAD to include Duran in the deal. So what about Rodon to go WITH Montas ?? I was driving in the car on Friday and heard a couple guys talking about Rodon on XM Radio. One guy said something i hadn't ever heard before about Rodon. Seems until he had Tommy-John surgery, Rodon had never worked out. Never lifted any weights. But because he had to rehab he was "forced to." He reported to spring training in the best shape of his life and proceeded to have a tremendous year. Had he not hurt his arm or gone thru a dead arm period, he was the best pitcher in the A.L. last year. He was Koufax-esque !! That puts me in a different mind set regarding if I would go after him. If we traded for Montas in the deal you proposed, and I had to choose between signing Story or Rodon, I'd probably go with Story to plug that HUGE hole at SS. But if I was Jim Pohlad, I do that Montas deal, and sign BOTH Story and Rodon. (or just Rodon and trade for Mondesi or DeJong). I'd expect my manager and pitching coach to want to baby every arm with the names Ryan, Ober, Balazoivic, Winder, Canterino, and SWRichardson attached to it. I'd see how 2022 plays out. (remember, we don't need to win 106 games like the Dodgers last year to finish 2nd!!!). And after 2022, I'd start the whole evaluation process over again: How's our lineup? Buxton, Polanco, Kiriloff, Story getting it done ? Is it time to move on from Sano ? How are Miranda, Martin and Lewis shaping up as well as Larnach/Celestino ? What about our catchers ? And finally, what did Montas & Rodon show us? And key to all of this: Where are we at with ALL THOSE YOUNG PITCHERS ??? Who got hurt ? Who disappointed ? Who FLASHED ?? And once again, the entire process starts up again. But no, I will never be happy with the determination that we have to punt 2022 and that 2022 should be a 90-100 loss season.

I think his immediate future position is LF. The Twins will have to add someone at SS, whether it's Story in an uncharacteristic HUGE signing or trading for a Mondesi/DeJong kind of player. Donaldson, at least in 2022, will be the 3B. Kiriloff should be at 1B with Sano the everyday DH. Polanco at 2B means (once SS is addressed) that the infield is FULL. I could see Miranda playing a lot of LF with an occasional appearance by Arraez (unless he's traded for pitching--which he should be to make room for Miranda) along with Larnach. I just don't see what else Miranda needs to prove in St. Paul. It's not like we won the division and he's got talented players stacked ahead of him. We finished in dead last place and LF is WIDE OPEN at this point. Glove-wise, he's got to be at least marginally better than Rooker. Get him in the lineup !! Once the Twins move on from Donaldson...whenever that is, he can transition to 3B. And by that time Austin Martin should be about ready to take over in LF. SS is the gaping hole in the Twins defensive alignment and whatever positions certain players fall into will be dependent on filling that gaping hole in whatever fashion this FO chooses to fill it.

I guess I'm of the mind that if the Twins think he's the best, most talented player on the board at their spot, I take him. And I SIGN him. Then, because Boras is his agent I'd have a different plan. I put him on the major league roster very quickly. And then I ride him... HARD. I pitch him. And I pitch him. And I PITCH him. The Twins will never have him once he enters his FA years. Boras will make sure of that. So with that in mind, I get my money's worth out of him, like an NFL team rides a young running back.

Story could solve the SS issue, but I'm still of a mind to trade for someone like Mondesi, Dejong etc...that wouldn't cost much prospect wise, but would be a solid player at the position leaving Polanco at 2B. I lean more toward singing Rodon to the 1-year $25 million with a team option for 2023 and packaging Arraez for a SP like Bassitt or Manaea or a Marlins prospect like Sanchez or Meyer. I would like to see two solid guys at the top of the rotation (Rodon & Bassitt/Manaea, put Bundy #4 and slot Ryan and Ober at #3 & #5) There's always Pineda as well depending on cost. Then let Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Strotman etc...shuttle up and down and fill in. Gotta get the young guys some innings, but you've got to have some veteran pitchers to fill innings and tie everything together. I don't mind all the speculation, but without a true sense of what the team is willing to spend this year, we're all just walking down a dark hallway.

I always love these retrospectives. I was in 6th & 7th grade when Herman Hill was being hyped as a top prospect. I was kinda fast as a youth, so I always liked the FAST guys. Hill's nickname was "Beep Beep" (like a car horn tooting for you to get out of the way). His death, happening during the winter just kind of took me by surprise and I remember how disappointed I was. I was hoping Hill would be the next Cesar Tovar. Bostock was an All-Time Fav. of mine. I was a teenager when he burst onto the scene and he was fun to watch. What a smooth LH batting stroke. It was almost like the Good Lord said, "Lyman, Twins fans will never forget you, but I've got important work for you to do up here in heaven for me." As unusual as it was to hear about Hill's death, Bostock dying during the season, visiting family while on an off day was stunning. I was in college at the time and it was just deflating. It was a lesson in how unfair and unpredictable life could be. I was just too young to remember a lot about Walter Bond, but was a big fan of his son who went on to star for the Gopher Basketball team years later.

Max is a fav of mine as well, and that's why I he's all the more frustrating for me to watch. He's simply GOT to figure out a way to use the whole field and not be so pull happy. He will probably never be anything but BAD against LH pitchers because they just go soft-away and he just grounds out to the right side. It's as predictable as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. I think he's smart enough to figure out how to beat the "shift" but is he "willing??" The brief video seems to indicate he's "working on it" but if nothing changes from last season he will probably play no more than 3 more years in MLB.

This move, as many of the moves from our FO, does absolutely nothing for me. Maybe...MAYBE this means they are gearing up to package Arraez for pitching but who knows ? Why not just sign Greg Gagne ?? The winter is cold in Minnesota, and it just got colder.

Excellent observation tony&rodney !!! Spend a little money. Make a good trade. Starting Rotation issue SOLVED ! For 2022 and beyond. And even with this pipe dream of ours coming true, there would still be PLENTY of opportunity to get other young pitchers innings. I guess the only thing I would change in MY pipedream, is that I would spend the FA money on Trevor Story and solve my SS problem in the short and long term. Montas heading the rotation would be enough for me. I'd even overpay somewhat (Arraez and MORE) to open up more AB's and playing time for Miranda and/or Martin.

I'm kind of shocked at the Twins projected win total with basically two rookies and a guy that had an ERA of 6.6 heading the starting staff at this point. But this projection only underscores what I've been saying in many posts regarding trades or FA signings: The Twins should NEVER be in a position where they are "punting" the division. Especially after having won it in 2019 and 2020. Can the Twins make up 13 games on the White Sox with some splash trades and FA signings ?? Doubtful. But who expected the Giants to win 107 games last year ? Who expected the Twins to completely implode last year. There is always the "unknown" in sports. The White Sox weathered some injuries last year: Eloy Jim and Luis Robert. Those two are immense talents who "should" have a bigger impact in 2022. But what if there are unexpected injuries to their pitching staff ? What if some of the pitchers are inexplicably "bad" (like with the Twins last year). What if Tim Anderson misses half the season...etc... I'm all for turning loose the young Twins pitchers. It's time to get a bunch of them up and get them some seasoning. But I'd like to bring those guys along gradually and I'm expecting the Twins to seriously monitor pitch counts and innings. The Twins simply need more VETERAN arms. And of course they need a SS. I know there are ways the Twins could measure what impact in expected win total a Trevor Story signing would have, as well as a Carlos Rodon signing or trades for a Montas or Bassitt or a Marlins pitcher du jour. So I hope they're running those scenarios and figuring out what needs to be done. Honestly, I don't see the Twins signing Rodon. I see him going to the Dodgers as Trevor Bauer insurance (if Bauer even pitches this year) or the Red Sox to replace Ed-Rod or the Yankees, because any of those teams could easily absorb the financial hit if Rodon doesn't work out. But Story at SS makes sense. A trade for a good SP and signing Pineda back does as well.

I think you have the priorities right Nick. Where the Twins stand right now with their starting pitching is untenable. They need SP's ! Not just in a trade but also a FA signing of some sort. Maybe Danny Duffy ? But I've lost track of his health status. I'm not sure he'd be ready right out of the gate. As for SS: Signing Story would solve the problem if the ownership and FO cared to spend the money. I'm not expecting that. Trading for Mondesi, DeJong, Didi etc... WOULD be a plan I could get behind. NONE of those 3 would cost a great deal and we have a hole at SS you could drive a semi through. I'd certainly look to pursue something like that and hope it's on the FO's "To Do" list.

Sano and Donaldson will get the majority of DH at bats. I could see Sano playing a "little bit" of 3B with Garver at 1B and Kiriloff in LF when Donaldson DH's. Or maybe Sano sits and someone like Miranda plays 3B. The point is, the Twins have plenty of GOOD options to be DH. What they don't have are PITCHERS. That's got to change for the 2022 season through some shrewd trades.

This is a tough call, but I'll go with Santana and salute the comp to Sandy Koufax. Santana certainly SHOULD have won that 3rd Cy Young. Nathan is simply the BEST closer the Twins ever had. And he's "close" to Billy Wagner, but Wagner's numbers ARE better. Santana is being snubbed in a major way. As Koufax demonstrates (and Kirby Puckett as well) it's not always about "counting stats." Santana was elite. he belongs in the Hall.

They need to find some sneaky good signings like Schoop and CJ Cron, in positions where they need them. Those were two of the more shrewd off season moves the Twins have made. Nellie Cruz was one of the BEST signings ever. Especially in 2019. That one for me, comes in just behind Jack Morris in 1991.

I think Martin would be getting a look long before Lewis. Lewis simply must polish off the rust of not playing for two years. If he explodes early or fizzles early the Twins shouldn't read too much into either. He simply has to PLAY. martin on the other hand was a standout in college and got on base over 40% of the time last year. He has positional flexibility, although the Twins would love to see how he handles SS early in the minor league season. If he's tearing it up, he could be up after the All Star break. Miranda is ready. He has nothing left to prove at AAA. Trade Arraez for pitching and get Miranda on the field and consistent AB's from the opening bell. I think he'll do very well.

Trading for Adelberto Mondesi (KC) or Paul DeJong (Cardinals) may cost a lower level arm (but not a leg). Both of them are better options IMHO than Polanco back at SS.

Donaldson is the Kirk Cousins of Vikings fan. The easy one to blame for everything. He's still a solid player, and trading him now, when he's a negative asset would assure the Twins would not receive anything near "fair trade value." In my opinion, JD is not blocking our prized rookie Miranda...Arraez is !! Arraez has the 2nd highest trade value among the Twins starting lineup. HE should be traded for pitching. let Donaldson play some 3B, DH and maybe even work in some 1B. Get all you can out of him this year and if a trade makes sense at the deadline, do it. Otherwise, track how Sano is doing. We aren't keeping BOTH Sano and Donaldson after 2022. MAYBE we keep one of them. I think it will probably be Donaldson.

I agree with mikelink45 on the topic and the opener. But I'm a hopeless traditionalist who misses pitchers who "pitched" and just didn't go Max Effort/Velocity on every pitch. That said...I also agree with ML Ready that some of these BP arms are suited to, and should go, 2 innings at a time. Guys seldom pitch on back to back days unless they're the closer. So why not leverage 2 innings out of these guys. And Cody, I would opine that not "SOME" Twins pitchers are bound to be on pitch counts and innings limits. Given the make-up of our current staff and it's youth I think almost "ALL" of them will. If Winder, Ryan or Ober start, I'm betting they go 3-4 innings most times, even if they are effective. After 3-4 innings, bringing Jax or Duran etc...in to pitch 1-2 innings would seem to fit. So would the idea of Jax, Duran or even Canterino (who I want to be a starter who can go 175 innings someday) the first two innings and THEN (in the traditional opener followed by a starter routine) have Ryan, Ober and Winder come in. And I can't believe I wrote "traditional opener." But yes, even though I think it's vital for the Twins to add one more SP via trade and another via FA, THIS is the plan I think the FO and coaching staff have for 2022. Give the young arms innings to show their stuff and learn how to pitch at the major league level, but also to closely control their workload as much as possible.

I would say Lewis. The weight of being the #1 overall pick means you need to be at least a solid to good major league player. I like his potential versatility, but he's got to be my starting SS for the next 10 years. His bat to ball skills need to improve, but with his speed and power potential, if he starts making consistent, hard contact, we can allow ourselves to dream a little higher. Canterino and Duran belong on this list (as do Balazovic and Winder). But because the Twins have SO MANY pitchers in this category and only Lewis and Martin as possible SS's, I go with Lewis.

Great Topic and nicely laid out. The way in which you framed it really shows the strengths vs the weaknesses (if you can call them weaknesses) of each player. Yes, Carew had better offensive stats and a longer runway--leading to more WAR. But I'm going to say Kirby had the better "career." The weight of those two World Series Championships and the key contributions of Kirby in them are what puts Kirby ahead of Rod for me. Because what's the point of playing ? It's to win the World Series right ? And Puckett did that TWICE. (As a kid who grew up living and dying with every at bat for Oliva and Carew this is quite difficult for me to choose Puckett over Carew, but, this is just how I feel today as I prepare to go out and shovel some Minnesota SNOW)!!

Interesting piece. While I do not think the Twins bullpen is "settled" I guess I'd only be interested in Trivino as he could be included in a trade for a SP (Montas, Bassitt or Manaea). The Twins need a RH compliment to Rogers provided Rocco does the "usual" Rocco and goes by a sort of BP by committee. Trivino has closer experience. My focus on Twins pitching is primarily starters. I wouldn't be averse to adding someone like Trivino but I think the BP is a place the Twins could use a lot of their young arms in very specific roles, limiting innings and protecting health while also finding out who can compete at the major league level.

I do NOT extend Arraez. Look, I love his "game" and and enjoy watching him. But you're playing with dynamite if you extend him. Trade him for pitching (he's an Oakland A's kind of player) and let his NEW team decide if they'd like to extend him. You're really walking a tightrope if you think you can extend him, and then get MORE value out of trading him.

I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere Nice job bean)!! Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy." We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense. Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday. And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF. There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options. Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power. Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense. He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine, but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well). I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez. It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense. If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.

These are all valid and good points Theo, and I would add each reason is why Arraez is the Twins 2nd best trade asset to Polanco. I'm not trading Polanco. I'm building with him going forward. In another post, I laid out how I would keep Arraez and trade Austin Martin if that is what it would take to acquire an Ace potential pitcher from the Marlins like Sixto Sanchez. Why would Miami trade a pitcher like that ? Because they already have TWO Ace level young pitchers in Rogers and Alcantara a STRONG #2 in Pablo Lopez as well as a very talented #3 in Cabrera. They also have young, high ceiling pitchers like Meyer and Luzardo. Quite simply, they're LOADED with young pitching but VERY short on offense. Arraez is ready to step into a place in Miami's lineup right now. Austin Martin would take a little longer, half a season at minimum. I'm NOT trading Miranda. He's playing 3B when Donaldson DH's. He's playing 2B when Polanco DH's. He's playing 1B when Sano DH's (which might be very often). He may not hit .300 like Arraez but his power and run creation will be superior. I'm risking it with Miranda. He's not starting 2022 in St. Paul. What more does he have to prove there ? Arraez is one of my favorite players on the Twins. But I'm moving him for Sixto Sanchez if possible. I'll be 64 in May. I saw Rod Carew when he came up in 1967. You can lay all the "comparisons" you want side by side of Carew and Arraez, even down to BOTH of them having knee problems. There ARE similarities. There is only one Rod Carew. To Miami, I stress the heck out of those similarities. But there is only one Rod Carew. I'm looking to add Sanchez to a staff that could see Balazovic, Winder, Duran and Canterino to go with Ryan and Ober. Arraez is my #1 chip to get him. Austin Martin is #2.