TopGunn#22

gman beat me to it !!! We already got our salary relief by trading Berrios for two good prospects. Donaldson & Sano are under water for trade value so the return would be low. I was all for trading Sano last off season and all year this year up to the trade deadline. However, as the team is currently constructed and with the near certainty that we will NOT be bringing Nellie Cruz back, I'm fine hitting Sano 7th or 8th and moving him between 1B and DH. Donaldson was actually pretty good last year and with his value also under water I'm keeping him and grooming Miranda to be our UT guy to play 3B, LF, 2B maybe some 1B after we trade Arraez for pitching. And as I will continue to repeat all through the winter up to next opening day: The Twins should be able to compete in a less than stellar A.L. Central if they make the right moves to the pitching staff and find a permanent or stop gap solution at SS. The options are many and variable. It's up to the FO to have a S.F. Giants kind of off season. The question is, are they good enough to pull it off ??

I agree that the Twins should have the budget to sign at least ONE decent SP. Robbie Ray may be a tough signing at $27 million per year, but Rodriguez at $15 or Gray at $15 (or both) would really bolster our starting rotation. Yes, we have young guys coming up through the pipeline, but every young pitcher is going to be coddled with innings and pitch limits. We need to bring in FOUR starting pitchers. Rather than have just one Robbie Ray, I'd spend the $30 million annually if I could add Gray and Ed Rod. and sign Pineda at $8 million. But tony&rodney, you and I have been consistently advocating for TRADING for a SP or two. And your targeting of Miami, Oakland and Milwaukee is hitting the top 3 "contenders." From Oakland, Montas may be too costly but Bassitt and Manaea are great targets. Someone like Kaprellian wouldn't be a bad throw in. With Miami, Alcantara was just TOO GOOD last year. The Marlins are going to build around him now, but they have young pitchers just coming out of their ears and big needs in corner OF and catcher. Max Meyer, Luzardo, Cabrera are all good targets. The Brewers have guys like Lauer and Houser that are gettable. Heck, I'd look into the possibility of Josh Hader. As a Twins fan, I'd LOVE the the idea of HIM coming in to save a game (rather than Colome or even Taylor Rogers). If Hader pitches in 2022 the way he's pitched the last 3 years he will be worth whatever he costs in an extension. With a SP rotation of Gray, Ed. Rod, TRADE acquisition or two, Pineda at $8 million per year and Ryan and Ober the Twins would have depth. Depending on how Gray, Ed. Rod, the trade acquisitions and Ryan and Ober fare, and with Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, Sands, Winder and others coming thru the pipeline (and I realize one of two of those pitchers might be needed to pry Hader away from the Brewers) the Twins could see themselves actually trading pitching in 2023/2024 to fill other roster holes. You can never have too much pitching.

$12 million seems to be the level of the water right now for Ed. Rod. Chances are it could go as high as $15 million per but I'd like the Twins to stretch for him if need be. I like Nick's plan although I'd have some subtle differences. Everyone agrees that Buxton is the key and that's why we're all putting signing him to an extension at the top of our off season list. The Twins WITH Buxton look a lot better than WITHOUT Buxton. I like Tony and Rodney's approach to getting Starling Marte for $17 million per season (and having BOTH him and Buxton). That however would mean putting more money toward an OF'er than SS and that $17 million could get a pretty solid SP to slot somewhere in #1, #2 or #3. I also like the idea of signing BOTH Rasiel Iglesias and Kirby Yates. Especially if the decision is to move on from Taylor Rogers (I think the Twins should keep him, but that's dependent on how he's recovering from his injury. I think what tony&rodney is giving up for Frankie Montas is a little too high (is there ANY way we could keep Joe Ryan out of that deal??) but to eye Montas as a potential starter is good. Bassitt and Manaea may be more affordable if we simply don't want to give up Joe Ryan. We need FOUR starting pitchers because Ryan and Ober are like having only one guy with their certain innings/pitch limits. I'd also love to somehow pry Adelberto Mondesi away from the Royals rather than spend big bucks on a FA SS. They have Nicky Lopez and Bobby Witt Jr. Call 'em up and work out a deal. He would be an excellent buy low candidate that could pay off nicely. Maybe include one of our up and coming minor league pitchers to swing a deal. Nice job Nick ! Keep the speculation/prognostication coming !!!

Seldom, if ever, will we get everybody on here to agree 100%. That's why we all come on and post our comments, so we can agree, disagree and offer up "why." I think it's a good, well thought out plan, but there are things I'm not in agreement with. That's O.K. !! I'm off the same age as well (I was 8 in 1965) and I "get" the idea we've never had a payroll to start the season that started with 1. 4. 0. But, I think it's O.k. if a few of us "dream" of a payroll starting at $140 million. Ray was the #1 SP target in my off season roster building plan. He's got great strikeout stuff and I believe in last season's breakout. I think it's for real. However, it would appear that signing him would not only cost a boatload of cash, but also have the Twins losing their #8 overall pick in the draft come June. I'm wavering on Ray now and looking more at guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Kevin Gausman, Danny Duffey and maybe a flyer on someone like Andrew Heaney. Pineda is also very much in the mix. But in the remaking of this roster I'm also looking at TRADES to further bolster the pitching staff. They need to fill the #1, #2 and #3 slots in the rotation. Ryan and Ober will be on pitch/innings limits ALL Year. They need a minimum of 4 NEW SP's for this roster in 2022 (and that's even if you're counting on Dobnak for depth). Injuries will happen. Doing the "minimum will not be good enough. They need a SS. There are lots of Good but also expensive options. There are also cheaper options like Iglesias or Galvis or trade options like Adelberto Mondesi or Paul DeJong. We're all going to have a FUN winter speculating on what the Twins FO ends up doing and...not doing.

But i also agree that Oakland will have some players available and Montas, Bassitt, Manaea and Kaprieillian in addition to a couple of RP's could be had for the right package.

I agree Mike8791. To get someone like Lopez, you'd have to give a lot up and that would work. I also think, if I was Miami, I'd want another young, live arm coming back in the deal like Canterino to have as a lottery ticket to replace someone like Lopez. Do I want to cut ties with Arraez, Jeffers and Canterino ? No. But to get Lopez ? YES ! We need a young arm like that. Closer to MLB than Balazovic and Duran. It is a good example of when a trade can help BOTH teams. Will it happen ? I don't know. But I HOPE so.

That's why I would like the Twins to invest in a "closer" for their bullpen next year but not in a lot of other bullpen arms. They've got a LOT of guys who could bring something to the table. Starting Pitching is where they needs ARMS ! They not only need guys who can occupy #1, #2 & #3 but they need depth as well. Some of their potential Starting Pitchers in the minors could also transition to the big leagues as bullpen pieces to begin with. Duran is the first who comes to mind.

I have come to the realization, quite reluctantly, that Arraez should be traded. He's one of my favorite players to watch, but with Polanco firmly entrenched at 2B and the MASSIVE need for pitching I can't see it NOT happening. I would not give him away, but he's the Twins BEST trade asset to acquire pitching. Yes, we have some young guys that are getting close. But pitching in baseball is like QB's in football. You can never have too much of it. You can always get something "good" on the trade market with a surplus of pitching. Oakland and Miami are trade possibilities for Arraez, probably a few others. With Miranda being able to cover every position Arraez does and Gordon as well, I see a trade in the Twins future.

Yes. Renfroe had a great season throwing people out, but otherwise is at best, an average defender. Playing outfield defense is more than having a strong arm. Reggie Jackson and Willie Stargell had strong arms. But nobody ever considered either a Gold Glove caliber defender. Max should have been in the mix over Renfroe.

Nice job Cory ! There are a million plus one ways this off season could go. Your numbers work out and the thought put into it was precise. I would call that a successful off season.

I love it Terry. It aligns with mine belief that "just a couple of arms" won't do it for the Twins in 2022. I have substituted Larnach for Kepler and Jeffers for Garver in my Miami trade suggestions. I realize this would ADD to the already $10 million over budget total, but I think the Marlins would be more interested in Jeffers as a long term solution at catcher and Larnach who has the potential to be a better hitter than Kepler and would also be more affordable. I did not realize the "Cost" for Ray would be so high (I'm referring to losing the #8 overall pick). This really changes my view on acquiring a #1 arm via F.A. Here's how I would attack this problem in your roster building scenario: I've trade Jeffers and Larnach instead of Garver and Kepler. I'm not spending $25 million on Ray or $20 on Stroman. I sign Eduardo Rodriguez for 4-years and $12 million per year. I include some incentives each season as well. Jon Gray would also require a Q.O. and I'm not sure what the compensation for signing him would be. So to save a little more, Pineda for 2-years $8-$10 million per year). I sign Andrew Heaney to a one-year $5 million dollar contract. Heaney is my "Lottery Ticket." Danny Duffey does NOT require a Q.O. so I'd make a run at him at $10 million per year. Starting Rotation: Alcantara, Ed. Rod, Danny Duffey or Pineda, Ryan, Ober and Heaney. I'm listing 6 because Ryan and Ober will be on pitch/innings limits and we KNOW we will need depth. Dobnak, Balazovic, Duran, Winder, and Gant, can provide some depth. (I'm keeping Gant as his ability as an adequate "swing man" will be valuable and I'm saving the $6 million that McHugh would cost). That's a starting rotation that can compete. I don't know if I'm "missing something" but is Knebe really Knebel who pitched for the Dodgers this year ??? I'm hoping it is. I would love to add him to the bullpen and make him our closer. Is $5 million per year realistic for him ? I think it's low. But someone please tell me if I'm misunderstanding this. If it's Cory Knebel, we've got a pretty good bullpen. The lineup is slightly different then with Garver at catcher backed up by Rortvedt or a Jason Castro type of cheap backup while Rortvedt spends a little more time refining his skills at St. Paul and Kepler is in RF. If I had any money to play with, I might go for a guy like Mark Canha to play LF and move Kiriloff fulltime to 1B making Sano the primary DH. This way, I can use Miranda like Arraez and play him semi-consistently at 3B, LF, 2B and 1B. I would sign a guy like Iglesias but also check in with the Royals and see what it would take to trade for Mondesi. Mondesi would be another "Lottery Ticket." If he stays healthy and wins the SS position we've hit a JACKPOT and Iglesias provides a steady glove and infield depth. If he gets hurt (which the odds favor) and misses a lot of time, Iglesias is there to steady the infield. That's a rough outline of what my plan would be. But I think Terry did a great job of shoring up our pitching deficiencies as well as keeping the lineup relatively intact.

Well written ! I almost felt Joe was sitting next to me, just talking about it !!

I agree that to spend big money on a front of the rotation starter has never been a Twins "trait.' (With the exception of Jack Morris and unfortunately, it only lasted one year). So I agree, the trade route is the most likely place they enhance their starting rotation. Still, if guys like Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray and Pineda can be added at reasonable prices, they COULD have the financial flexibility to sign a SS like Baez. (even though I still like going after Mondesi). They COULD have the ability to sign a closer for the bullpen. I still maintain that with 40% of their rotation depending on Ryan and Ober, who will be pitch and innings "limited" throughout the year, they should sign two of Ed. Rod, Jon Gray or Pineda and still sign a lottery ticket like Andrew Heaney. then make a trade to bring in an arm or two and have a pitching staff that begins with depth. It's a LONG season. People will get hurt. They need depth so they can baby the young arms they have and those that are knocking on the door for 2022. Once we've put two "normal" baseball seasons behind us the twins can cut loose with Ryan, Ober, Balazovic, Duran, Winder and Canterino (or whoever they didn't package in a trade for immediate help). We need LOTS of arms. So maybe an approach like this, targeting BETTER pitchers than the Happ/Shoemaker debacle would be successful. I'd be happy to see the Twins go to war with pitchers like Ed Rod, Jon Gray and Pineda. And I'd not be critical of taking a chance on a guy like Heaney whose "stuff' is far superior to Happ/Shoemaker.

I too want to see the FO put together a team that can compete for the division in 2022. It's not a division where you can win 106 games and finish 2nd. Ray would be my target because the swing and miss stuff is for real. he had a season last year that Berrios will probably never have. That's not meant to be a slight to Berrios. Jose is "good" but he's not "GREAT." Berrios will never win a CY Young. Guys like Jon Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, Pineda--they are good #2, #3, #4 type pitchers. They should all be on the radar. But Baseball Trade Values is updating player values at this time and trades I had proposed earlier no longer work. I traded Jeffers & Larnach 56.6 total value to Miami for Alcantara 56.6 total value. Well, NOW that trade would be Larnach & Jeffers 39.8 value for Alcantara 78.4 value. NOT. GONNA. HAPPEN. (and i agree with how Alcantara's value went "up" and how Jeffers and Larnach went "down"). So now the trade would be: Jeffers & Larnach 39.8 for max Meyer 28.1 and Jesus Luzardo 10.0 (total 38.10). It's not a #1 or #2 like Alcantara would be, but it's two young arms with flaws but potential that seem closer to the Big Leagues than Balazovic, Duran or Winder. So I need to spend a little more time at Baseball Trade Values to "rediscover" what a players value is. Last I saw, Frankie Montas was valued at about 45.3. I'm almost afraid to find out what it is now. But I remember building a workable trade with the A's for Montas with Arraez 34.1 and Matt Canterino 9.6. Not sure if that would be workable now.

This was a good exercise Nick. Especially with you using the framework of a $130 budget. Of course, I have some "differences" but that's what makes this site so fun. I'm not spending $20 for Verlander even if he was outstanding before suffering the injury. Logically, I see him getting a QO from Houston and ending up back there. I'll spend that $20 per year for 4-years on Robbie Ray. I'll consider it for Gausman and Stroman. Either way, I want a guy who I can go to battle with for 3-4 years. At 39 years old, Verlander is not that guy. I'm trading for at least ONE top of the rotation starter. I'm not trading Kepler. His value is too low and I need his defense and will work on his approach this off season. I'd have him watch hours of Freddie Freeman video. I'm considering trading Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez and probably one of my younger arms not ready for the majors yet (but not Balazovic). By leveraging those players I think I can come up with two pretty solid SP's. So I'm building a staff that starts with my $20 million guy, followed by one or two SP's acquired in a trade, followed by Ryan, Ober and then a mid-tier FA signing like Jon Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez and a bargain signing like Andrew Heaney. The Twins need more than 5 SP's with a couple of rookies on innings/pitch limits at the bottom of the rotation. I love the Yates signing. At $1 million it's a worthy gamble. I think Heaney is a better option than Neris because his stuff is better and he could start or be converted to the bullpen. I'd go for Canha instead of Dickerson. They need a RH bat in LF. I like a Galvis/Iglesias type of signing but I'd also talk to the Royals about Adelberto Mondesi and see what it would take to pry him away. He's kind of like Buxton. All sorts of talent and athleticism but always hurt. With Lopez playing so well at SS last year and Bobby Witt jr on the way soon, the Royals may be ready to move on from Mondesi. I'd find out what it would take. I have no idea if my "plan" would be in the ballpark of your $130 budget. But spending $10 million more next year to field a contender is worth it to the Twins.

I like all three at the prices listed, maybe even a little higher. The fact is, the Twins need a LOT of pitchers. Ryan and Ober will be a part of the rotation but be on innings and pitch limits. Ed Rod would be a solid signing. Pineda as was mentioned earlier is PREDICTABE. He'll spend some time on the I.L. but for the most part give you decent innings and keep you in games. Heaney is a lottery ticket, and if the Twins do what they SHOULD, and that is to sign one top tier SP (someone "like" but not necessarily, Robbie Ray) and trade for someone "like" Sandy Alcantara, Frankie Montas or Chris Bassitt, they are going to need to sign a "bargain basement" guy like Heaney. Heaney has tremendous stuff. He's got a TON more potential than a Shoemaker or Happ. I'd sign him as a SP but I also like the idea of trying him in the BP. Rollie Fingers made the transition. So did Dennis Eckersly. There are plenty of guys who washed out as SP's but became GOOD RP's.

I know there was a "50 innings limit" but I think everyone on here would have liked some kind of mention of Joe Ryan. There was just too much GOOD there despite the occasional 3-run HR.

They need to Brandon. They will have every one of those young pitchers on pitch and innings limits. Plus, I don't think Maeda is pitching at all next year. They need at least 2 other SP's in addition to Pineda and I'd maintain they need a 4th. I'd go with a 6-man pitching staff with Ryan and Ober #5 & #6. And from time to time, those guys would be "skipped" to further protect them. They may get some reinforcements from the minors (Balazovic, Winder, Duran) but they can't "count" on them.

It will ALWAYS come down to what each would cost. But assuming (I know...ass-u-me) that we would spend to get one of these arms my order of preference would be: Graveman, Knebel, Tepera. Not really interested in Bradley unless he comes for a really "Twins" favorable deal, and Bradley is NOT my closer. He's just another "arm" somewhere in the pecking order. But aside from taking care of Buxton, the Twins are going to need to acquire at least 3 SP's and I would advocate FOUR because the Ryan's and Ober's (and even the Balzovic's) will all be on innings limits and pitch limits. We need more SP's than many people posting here realize.

I agree Cody, I would like to see the Twins go after Mondesi from the Royals as option #1. DeJong has a good glove and power. His OPS has been slipping but maybe a chance of scenery would help. Sosa has beaten him out, and it's been mentioned that the Cards may be in on Story. Either way, DeJong can be acquired VERY cheaply and would be an upgrade. As long as Rocco refuses to make Arraez our leadoff hitter on a full-time basis, I'm trading him for pitching (which the Twins need desperately and need MULTIPLE options, especially in the rotation). I like Austin Martin as our utility guy in 2022. But the Twins also have Gordon as well, so with Polanco firmly entrenched at 2B, Arraez is worth more as a trade chip to add pitching and some team (Oakland)? would see value in him as their everyday 2B-man.

Nice, well thought out and explained article Andrew. I, personally have no idea what they should pay him. I only know, that when he PLAYS...he's very good. Your article lays a foundation of how the Twins (and Byron as well) should approach this. A solid "BASE" salary, and then incentives for games played to reach an overall salary. This protects the Twins should Byron, once again, get injured. It also protects the potential future earnings of Buxton and would incentivize him to remain a Twin. And look, once the Twins and Byron settle on what he's "worth" if the Twins are unable to put together a pitching staff (like the Angels with Trout) then teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets will STILL be willing to trade for him. But as a front office, the Twins can't just let him walk. They MUST get a deal done.

Thor's health (or lack thereof) scares me. He'd look great in a Twins uniform and if you could absolutely COUNT on him giving you 200 innings I'd sign him in a New York minute. But, I think he'll break down. Robbie Ray would be my top target. Decent, but not top of rotation guys I'd be interested in: Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray, Danny Duffy. Health always is a factor when considering FA pitchers. While Thor would be too expensive a gamble for me, I'd be willing to take a look at James Paxton, but I'd have to feel VERY confident he's capable of 150 innings. Alex Wood, Kwang Hyun Kim, Pineda, Heaney are others. But while the Twins should sign one Big Time pitcher (Robbie Ray) or two mid-level (Ed Rodriguez/Jon Gray) I think the best avenue to acquire Starting Pitching is thru TRADES. When 40% of your projected starting rotation are YOUNG guys like Ryan & Ober, who are certainly going to be on some kind of innings limit, you need to bring in some veteran pitchers with a proven track record who can give you innings. Mid season reinforcements like Balazovic, Winder or Duran would help, but it's a LONG season and a LOT of innings need to be accounted for. That's why FA signings and trades will BOTH need to be employed.

Oh, I think Arraez could get MUCH more than just a "decent" relief pitcher. His Baseball Trade Value is 34.10. (Polanco is 45.0) That could get the Twins either Sean Manaea (19.7) or Chris Bassitt (21.7) straight up from the A's with James Kapriellian (10.6) thrown in. Arraez would be the A's starting 2B-man and leadoff hitter. I'd be happy with a deal like that. Or, I'd aim high and trade Arraez 34.1 and Canterino 9.6 = 43.7 total for Frankie Montas 44.1. The A's are going to be retooling this winter and a number of their players are going to be on the block. Arraez gets them a team controlled starting 2B-man with bat skills. So yeah, I'm shooting for STARTING pitchers with Arraez, not just a "decent' relief pitcher.

It's a good plan. Well thought out and well laid out. I have a couple suggestions of what I would do instead: I keep Donaldson and trade Arraez to the A's in a package for Frankie Montas. I keep Garver, and trade Jeffers and Larnach to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara. I would still be interested in signing Jon Gray/Mike Pineda to the above mentioned contracts. I'd also consider Eduardo Rodriguez as a FA. But I add one of those three guys. I prefer Rodriguez first, Gray second and Pineda third. Maybe I sign someone like Andrew Heaney cheap. because of the dependence on two young pitchers in Ryan and Ober, the Twins will need to bring in "several" arms and consider a 6-man rotation to limit the innings of Ryan and Ober. Rotation: Alcantara, Montas, (Gray/Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez), Ryan, Ober. (Depth: Dobnak, Balazovic, Winder). I love the idea of signing Knebel. he and Rogers are my Co-Closers. I trade Lewis Thorpe .8 trade value to the Cardinals for SS Paul DeJong 1.0 value (Baseball trade Values). C Garver 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS DeJong LF Austin Martin/Jose Miranda CF Buxton RF Kepler DH Sano I save the Cory Seager money (I think he resigns with the Dodgers). Keeping Donaldson still allows me to sign Knebel. I think a team constituted like this can compete for another division title and maybe even win a darn playoff game. But I still like what you put together as well.

Polanco is our MVP and very productive on a team friendly deal. I'm keeping him. I'm trading Arraez for pitching.