TopGunn#22

I had not considered a 3-team deal and had actually not considered Kepler going to the Padres. If we're looking at the Reds or A's, they wouldn't want Kepler. They'd want Kirilloff or Larnach. The Padres however, want to win NOW and would be very interested in someone like Kepler. I'm just not sure with a guy like Snell. His velocity and stuff appear to be as good as his Cy Young season, but the results are a far cry form it. Obviously, if you get "Cy Young Snell" it's a brilliant trade. But what he seems to be right now is nowhere near that. I do get the sense however that someone among Kepler, Kirilloff or Larnach may be the key piece in a trade to bring back a front line pitcher. I think Snell is too risky and other targets are more likely. I just can't see the Twins taking on the contract of Yu Darvish either.

Looking at MLB Trade Values, Rogers is still valued at 60.4 at 24 years old. (that's no diminishment of value at all) That would cost you Larnach AND Miranda for equal value. That's a pretty hefty price. Rogers still has outstanding stuff and would unquestionably be our Ace going forward. The key is discovering why he's been pretty crummy this year and "fixing" him. I'd have to have a definite idea what it would take to "fix him" before I would make that deal. But he's younger, has more cost controlled years and possibly more talented than Montas/Castillo. And he's Left handed ! I'm not interested in Hendricks at all. The Yankee and Astro lineups would eat him alive. Marquez is intriguing. He's gone from a value of 60.0 not that long ago to now just 16.1. He's 27 years old and still has good stuff. You could get him for Miranda even up. One thing I will say about Marquez is that he's a horse ! He is a 200 inning pitcher and may just need to get away from Coors to rediscover his confidence. He may not project as a #1 or even a #2 but he could be a solid #3 who eats innings and helps keep your BP from getting overworked.

I think it's time to get Kirilloff up. I like BOTH Larnach and Kiriloff, but Kirilloff has always had the bigger upside. I've always felt that at some point, BOTH would show themselves to be solid major league hitters and that because of Kepler, eventually, one would need to be traded for a player who could help the team more...like a SS or a SP. With Correa, I don't see us trading for a SS. Larnach profiles as a Jesse Winker type player and I'd think both the A's and the Reds would be interested in him as part of a Montas or Castillo deal. Either of those pitchers would lead our rotation and give us somebody who could be counted on to consistently throw close to 7 innings a start. That takes a little pressure off the BP and deepens the rotation. A top 3 of Montas/Castillo with Ryan and Gray is something I'd be confident in going into a playoff series. And I agree with the prevailing sentiment on TD. Why not get a scorching hot Kirilloff up and into the Twins lineup NOW (or at least very soon). He should probably slot into the 5 or 6 spot in that lineup and could even be our #3 at some point if he keeps raking. ANY lineup could benefit from THAT type of hitter.

I certainly think Miranda is a trade chip and would use him in a trade for either Montas or Castillo. I'd hang onto Steer if I dealt Miranda just to have a little backstop for prospects and because I think Steer is undervalued as a prospect (at least according to MLB Trade Values). I think a package of Miranda and Ober (once healthy) could be the foundation of a deal to bring a Montas or Castillo to the Twins. I'd hate to give up either one, but you've gotta give something of value to get something of value. Ober would step into either the A's or Reds rotation and Miranda would step into either of their lineups. Miranda's position versatility would get him into the lineup at either 3B, 1B or DH. Plenty of opportunities. However, to do this, the Twins FO would need to lock Montas or Castillo up for a minimum of 5 years at equal to Berrios money or a little higher. I believe both Montas and Castillo are superior pitchers to Berrios, so I'd pay the freight to get that SP #1 with Ace potential to front my rotation.

I would still be looking for a SP (Montas ?) so that Archer could fill that long/middle guy role and a closer like Lopez or Bednar so that I could double up with Duran and whomever that would be. Better pitchers with better stuff (back end types) push everyone in the pen down a peg. But I'm also looking for guys I would have for the rest of this year and beyond. I'm not making any trades that are a short term rental unless I "steal" the guy. The trade has to be made for the "now" and the future.

I'm with Greglw3 on this. Correa is a franchise player. The kind of guy a team should build around. I know Pena is doing well for the Astros, but franchise SS's just aren't the type of player a team should just let walk. If the goal is to win a World Series then the Twins need to sign him long term. Buxton is a superstar talent who the team feels can't play more than 100 games in a season. The Twins signed him to a contract that protects them as well as Buxton. In other words, it's "affordable." If there is ONE position I'd be willing to shell out $30 million a year it would be for a SS who is the league's Platinum Gold Glove winner and who has a proven record of Post-Season Heroics. Correa is THAT GUY. A team with Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach, Royce Lewis and Arraez as it offensive/defensive core with the young pitching coming up SHOULD be able to compete for 5-10 years. When you have a franchise player like Buxton, who may or may not be in the lineup on any given day, you need a true superstar like Correa to provide that leadership and stability every day. I'll still take whatever Buxton can give me. But I want and need Correa to be the foundation everything is built on. I say we take full advantage of Houston's "mistake."

I don't think so. I'd have to see more from Thor to warrant my interest. The low K rate concerns me and we've got enough 5-inning max starters as it is. The Twins need a #1 who they can count on for 7 innings virtually every start. Thor, at best, would be Archer 2.0.

I think we CAN compete. The Yankee series showed that. It also exposed our inherent flaws that make us vulnerable to being swept out of the playoff (yet again). The Astros pretty much handed us our heads earlier, but we're not really THAT far away from competing with them. Past Twins FO's (after 1991) and I'm speaking primarily of the Terry Ryan years 2002-2010 or so (and to another degree 2019) have never made moves that would have put the team over the top. That's what I would like to see done differently by the current FO while still guarding some of those top prospects. They've already shown they are "somewhat" capable of that with the Petty for Sonny Gray deal. (and with the Correa signing). I'd like to see what else they could do.

I had posted a Montas trade on TD yesterday in which Steer was part of a deal for Montas. I think Steer's 3.30 "value" as currently rendered is too low and I would think the A's would be interested in him. I don't think the Twins need to acquire TWO SP's. One of Montas/Castillo/Mahle would be sufficient for this year/future years for me. With the emergence of Smeltzer and the eventual return of Maeda, Paddock etc...I think the Twins have plenty of good SP options for 2022 and beyond. What is needed is a STUD #1 which Montas or Castillo could provide. They also could really use TWO bullpen pieces to lengthen out the pen. I'm advocating for Jose Lopez (Baltimore) and AJ Puk (as part of a Montas trade). There are certainly interesting options elsewhere, but those are the two I've put forth as being good fits and reasonable assets that wouldn't be prohibitively expensive. The Twins have a number of young players that look like they are ready to contribute at the major league level right now or very soon. It's time leverage this into some acquisitions to help the team this year as well as future years. I'm not into one-year rentals THIS year. Maybe in the future I would be. But for this team, in 2022, I'm looking for this year benefits as well as the future.

Yes jorgenswest, that is essentially what I am saying. They have a LOT of young talent that is starting to contribute and looks like true Major league talent, not just "a prospect with potential." Any trade the FO makes has to be made with the intent of making the team better this year, but also for 2023 and beyond. A Montas or Castillo would absolutely need to be signed to a 4-5 year extension. They simply can't give away a Larnach/Kiriloff, Miranda, Ober, Winder, Martin etc...without making sure that the guy they get back is leading our rotation for several more years. Bullpen pieces like Puk and Lopez would also be key. I know bullpen's are somewhat volatile from year to year. But arms like Lopez and Puk should provide stability in the future as well. Lopez and Puk would also allow the Twins more flexibility with guys like Duran and Canterino. Can Duran and Canterino become starting pitchers? If they can, their "value" skyrockets. If not, they would just add to a bullpen with electric arms and power stuff. One guy that nobody talks about anymore is Miguel Sano. With Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda for 1B and each of these guys along with Sanchez and others for DH, where does Sano fit on this team ? I would offer that he doesn't. The problem with Sano is that he's a negative trade piece right now based on his $10-$12 million contract. Who would want him ? Much like Donaldson, he's a guy with offensive potential but a contract that impedes his tradability. I've always thought Colorado or Boston would be good fits for Sano, but haven't spent anytime trying to see what a trade via MLB Trade Values would look like. But essentially, the Twins could have Correa on this team for this year for certain. After this year, it's all speculation and crystal ball type stuff. As long as Correa is my SS I'm trying to win NOW. The guy is just too good of a post-season player to take for granted. The Yankees look epically good this year (and man, that's saying something when you're talking about the Yankees). The Astros look tough with that lineup and a Hall of Fame Verlander fronting the staff. The Dodgers, as always are loaded. But baseball is a funny game. who expected the BRAVES to emerge as last years World Series Champion ??? Get in the playoffs and see what happens !

It's not just that Kirilloff is hitting for a high average. It's that his power is there. I, for one, would love to see him called up and rotated between 1B, LF/RF and DH. With the majority of pitching being RH he should be in line for plenty of AB's. Kepler is having a better year and that's good to see. Less power than we'd like, but better AB's. Larnach and Kirilloff are somewhat redundant but there would be nothing wrong with having all three in the lineup together. But a GOOD Kirilloff along with an up and coming Larnach really gives the Twins options in a possible trade package to bring a Montas/Castillo level starter to the rotation. Also, I agree with FlyingFinn, any word on Balazovic ? Is it an injury ? Or something else ? This guy has so much promise!! But like Duran, Ryan, Winder etc...he's got to be healthy to realize that promise.

There is no way to "read the minds" of our own FO much less the minds of other teams FO's. You can use MLB Trade Values to "create" a trade but it's all just speculation (but still fun to plot anyway). I believe the Twins SHOULD make a deal and spend some of that prospect capital not just for this season but to build beyond this season. Any deal for a Montas or Luis Castillo needs to be made with a commitment to sign Montas/Castillo to a fair, long term (5 years or so) contract upon making the trade. That said, here are two deals that would help the Twins this year and beyond: Twins Get: Montas 37.00 and AJ Puk .50 A's Get: Ober 15.8, Miranda 16.50 Steer 3.30 Wallner 3.00 and Strotman 1.50 The Trade favors Oakland 40.10 to 37.50. The Twins will need to over pay to win the bidding war for a Montas caliber pitcher. Oakland gets a SP, 1B/3B, 2B/3B, OF and RP at various stages of providing immediate talent to their major league roster and future talent. Steer for example, is vastly under-valued at 3.30 right now in my opinion. He's tearing up AA and AAA. He's ready for a promotion. Would the A's see it the same way ? Hard to say. But Montas steps into the #1 slot and Puk provides another lefty in the pen. Trade #2 Twins Get: Jose Lopez RP Baltimore .80 and Carmona 1.10 (a low level, somewhat low ceiling minor league 3B) Orioles Get: Cavaco 3B 2.40 The Orioles win this trade 2.40 to 1.9. I actually think Lopez is undervalued as I think he's found a home as the Orioles closer and his stuff plays well at the back end. Frankly, I'd make this trade even more one-sided and remove Carmona if I had to. Lopez gives the Twins another option to close on days Duran can't and a good 8th inning option as well. It pushes everybody but Duran back one slot. Baltimore get a high upside guy who may benefit from a change of scenery. Just the type of trade Baltimore needs to make. The trades may be laughable to some. But they work on the MLB trade Simulator and there is at least "some" logic for either side to consider pulling the trigger.

Rocco could never figure out that he had a "closer" on his staff (Taylor Rogers), it was always bullpen by committee. And his pulling Smeltzer, a soft tosser who doesn't need velo to be effective after 70 pitches or so are just a couple of my head scratchers for him. He was a great manager when we were hitting 300+ HR's...but who wouldn't be. He's never shown me the ability to "manufacture" a run here or there and his bullpen management has always been weak. Honestly, aside from Dave Roberts (who does less with tons of resources as a manager) Rocco is a poor manager and at best "just average." Joe Maddon is available. Think about that for a moment.

I'm with Doc Bauer on this one. I just can't see Duffey remaining on the team for long. Whether some sort of injury conveniently happens or he's just simply DFA'd there are younger arms with better stuff. I for one think Smeltzer should remain in the rotation no matter when Ryan and Gray return and stay there until he pitches himself out of it. He's a lefty and he's been exceptionally good. Bundy isn't long for this team and Archer should be moved to long relief---3 innings per stint or so. I could see Archer coming in after Winder goes 4-5 innings (or, dreaming a little bit, Canterino). I like the idea of adding an arm like Jose Lopez from Baltimore to the pen. It gives the Twins Duran and Lopez to close and deepens the depth. Not sure what he would cost but I don't see it as being "prohibitive."

If I were the Twins, I wouldn't include Lewis in any deal. I want to hang on to Correa, and I think the Twins would be in great shape if they somehow could field teams that had both Correa and Lewis in the starting lineup. But Lewis is the Twins fallback plan at SS if Correa opts out. And that appears to be a mighty fine plan. I proposed this trade on MLB Trade Values: Twins Get: Montas 37.0 and AJ Puk 5.5 Total of 42.5 points. I believe the Twins would need to over-bid in value to get Montas because there WILL be a bidding war with other teams. The Dodgers especially concern me. A's Get: Balazovic 16.1 Ober 15.5 Wallner 3.0 Theilbar 7.3 Yennier Cano .40 and Gordon .80 Total of 43.10 I don't give up Lewis, Canterino or Winder. This trade works as far as the numbers, but I imagine Oakland would get a better offer. I could modify a number of the players included but I'd be willing to add Martin or Noah Miller if I needed to take something out. Not both of them, one of them as I swapped various pieces in and out. I believe Balazovic and Ober would get the attention of the A's. I believe Wallner has to be in there. I'm including Theilbar with getting Puk back as a way to swap out LH bullpen pieces. But someone like Martin or Miller would probably need to be a part of it. The Twins need a frontline SP. Someone who can consistently give them quality innings. They need him for this year and future years. Despite the excellent performance by Berrios in his win against us, I've always viewed Montas and Castillo as superior pitchers with higher ceilings. I'd be willing to pay either in a 5-year extension whereas I felt Buxton was the player to keep and Jose was the player to trade a year ago. I would love to see something get done sooner rather than later, but the A's and Reds know their leverage will be greatest nearer the trade deadline. How the Twins perform and how some of these potential trade pieces perform between now and then will have a big impact on whether anything gets done and what the eventual price will be.

First off: I ALWAYS worry about the Twins. It's in my nature. But I will agree, as "magical" as last year was for the White Sox (nearly everything went right for them, just like absolutely everything went wrong for the Twins) this year has been a nightmare for them. I believe they WILL get better and the Twins will battle with them until the end. And yes, we should have some key guys coming back soon. But, as was pointed out, in todays baseball guys are constantly hurt and the roster is always in a state of flux. The Twins still need to make a few moves to strengthen this ballclub. Dealing for a #1 (Montas, Castillo) or a solid #2 or #3 (Eovaldi, Mahle) is needed to give the Twins a 7-inning starter every 5th day so the bullpen doesn't run out of gas. And dead weight like Theilbar and Duffey need to be replaced with some arms with more "juice." Guys like Lopez (Baltimore) and Puk (Oakland) are a couple I'm partial to. I'd love to see some action NOW, but there really won't be anything happening until closer to deadline. That said, I'm willing to part with young talent (except Canterino) to add a guy like Montas/Castillo who I would then offer a 5-year extension to be the staff Ace. Both are better pitchers with higher upsides than Berrios, so I'd be willing to invest in them. Getting Lopez and Puk for the pen should be pieces the Twins would have some control over for longer than just the end of this season too. Working Lewis into the mix this season (with maybe a "dash" of Canterino) and I think the Twins could possibly even win a playoff game. Maybe not the SERIES, but just win a darn game !! And we'd have the foundation for a pretty talented young group going forward. I think it's obvious this team doesn't need Miguel Sano. What can they get for him ? I'd listen.

Do we KNOW Max isn't vaccinated ?? I mean, if he's visited his parents in Germany in the last couple years and returned to the U.S. he WOULD be vaxxed, right ? I don't like to make assumptions about ANY of this. Guys get hurt tying their shoes in the locker room nowadays so the roster seems to be in a constant state of flux. It's a personal choice and I leave it at that. We've seen how wrong, and possibly intentionally wrong our government has been about this since the outset. It never had ANY basis in science. That said, whoever raised the point "Is Max (or anyone else on the team) really willing to miss a chunk of a possible playoff series against Toronto made a great point. We're a LONG way from that reality, but it's possible and has to be a consideration.

First off, I agree with everyone who says Smeltzer belongs in the rotation. He certainly does until he makes 3 consecutive starts that are bad enough to remove him from the rotation. His last start, with 7 shutout innings and 79 pitches Rocco should have just left him in. I also agree with those who are saying Archer has NOT been bad. He's been about what I hoped for. I see him thriving in a long relief role where he gives you 2-3 innings in the 5th/6th or 6th/7th inning. Keep him just long enough to be effective but not long enough to get in deep trouble. There is value in that kind of role. He's a veteran. If it means staying on a Big League roster, he will adapt to something other than starting. But this gets us back to the points Nick made in another post: The staff as a whole has some serious gaps. Starters generally don't go long enough and there are only a couple of "reliable" bullpen arms. Right now, Theilbar and Duffey aren't cutting it. Each should be packaged in a trade to reinforce the pitching staff. Teams dealing pitching always need SOME kind of pitching coming back, primarily because nobody has an endless supply of arms. Duffey and Theilbar would have enough value to help close a deal. So that brings us back to the need to trade for some more reliable arms. I want the Twins to continue to explore Frankie Montas possibilities. If someone like A.J. Puk could be included, so much the better. This is where Theilbar could come in handy. Puk and Theilbar swap teams leaving both teams with a LH bullpen option. I see Luis Castillo was REALLY good in his last start against the Giants. I still like Lopez from the Orioles. Maybe a deal could be made for Lopez and Means. I'd like the F.O. to remain engaged in some of these possibilities, sooner rather than later. But most teams will wait until the trade deadline to maximize leverage. The Twins just need to get Ryan and Winder back (and Gray !) and "maintain" until the deadline approaches. But there is no doubt, the status quo won't be successful. A deal (or deals plural) need to be made.

Happy Birthday indeed Terry-Dacs !! I will only mention Rogers this one time as well. It frustrates me that Rocco didn't seem to realize what he had in Rogers...a CLOSER ! Part of the disaster of 2021 was going with the bum Colome FAR longer than was needed. Rocco wanted a split BP while I thought Rogers should have been the closer all along. Even with the huge hole we dug, Rocco still didn't seem to realize that. No he's closing for the Padres and he'll be an All Star. As I said earlier, I think we've gotten about as much as we can out of the "St. Paul Shuffle." It's time to deal some prospects for bullpen arms that can actually help. They need TWO arms and they should make a trade sooner rather than later.

They have done about all they can with shuttling guys back and forth from AAA. It's time to make a few trades to add some juice to the bullpen and move on from guys (Theilbar, Duffey) who just don't have that juice anymore. Lopez from Baltimore and Puk from Oakland are a couple of guys that interest me. But I'd stress that the F.O. can't wait until the deadline. They need to reinforce the bullpen sooner rather than later.

You take 2nd Wilfong...I'll take short !!

This was written on Saturday, just a couple days after Smeltzer's brilliant outing on Thursday. I'm just finally reading it on Memorial Day. 1. Smeltzer is IN the rotation now. He will have to be really bad for 4-5 starts to pitch himself out of it. 2. Canterino has stuff that will play in the big leagues. With the roster crunch when the Twins have to go to Toronto coming up, I'd move Canterino from AA right up to the Twins. I like the idea of using him as an opener so he stays with his current routine as a "starter" and I'd throw him as many innings as his pitch count would dictate. I have no idea what that pitch count is...60 pitches ? 70 ? We have two older SP's who can't seem to get past the 4th inning---Archer and Bundy. Once Winder comes back, I'd "open" with Winder and Canterino, and then let Archer and Bundy get me thru the 6th/7th before going to guys in their current "slots." Primarily Pagan and Duran. Guys like Theilbar and Duffey aren't giving the Twins much this year at all. I'd REALLY like the Twins to acquire Montas. He and Gray at the top of the rotation with Ryan is pretty darn solid. Ober is having his ups and downs but Winder looks like he'll be part of the rotation for several years. Montas would front the rotation and I'd sign him to an extension. He's got a higher ceiling than Berrios ever had. I'd look to add another power arm like Lopez from Baltimore too. The question is, what would it take to get Montas ? At this point, I'd be willing to make Balazovic the centerpiece of the deal, but I wouldn't be including Larnach, Kiriloff or Arraez. It would have to be lower level minor league players that have potential but aren't ready to contribute within a year. Oakland is not going to compete in 2023 anyway, so the A's should take some lower level, high potential guys. Maybe someone like Wallner. The key with Montas is to get him, not just for the rest of this year or next, but for the next 5 years.

I think Kirby made the best point (next to tony&rodney about Simmons not being able to play in the U.S. either) this could be a huge issue if we have to play the Blue Jays in the playoffs, or, whoever has to play the Blue Jays.

Going to the saints game today with family. Should be fun to see Cole sands pitch, and Lewis, Kiriloff and Steer assault baseballs.

GREAT Topic RWilfong86 !! You picked a lot of good considerations. I voted for the team ERA. We knew Arraez could hit but his BA and OBP so far are tremendous. We knew Correa was a Platinum Glove defender but only 3 HR's to date is surprising. We knew Urshela was a good defender but he's been Brooks Robinson level. THAT'S saying something. Celestino and Larnach have looked VERY good. They obviously worked hard this off season and it shows. They are completely different looking hitters. Smeltzer is what we had hoped Dobnak would be. What a story he's been. Duran really looks the part of dominant closer. I think we all "hoped" that would be the case and maybe our hopes are being realized. I thought Joe Ryan would be "good" but he's been "Ace" good. I didn't expect that to be the case THIS year already. Buxton hitting .201 was my second choice. I just think this idea to play him no more than 100 games is STUPID. I thought if he just played, good things would happen. Now, I think he sits too much and he has no rhythm or flow. It may be that the knee is not quite there yet, but heck, if he's healthy just PLAY HIM ! It's like the Twins are setting this up to lower expectations. They worked out a contract with incentives that protect both Buxton and the team, but for Pete's Sake, just play him. No team has ever gotten the most out of a superstar player by wrapping him in bubble wrap and not playing him.