TopGunn#22

This is a good and timely article Cody. Whoever we trade, now or this winter, and whoever we get back, ALL of this has to be considered when trading, DFA'ing, and guys we pick up that we're taking a flyer on (Jose De Leon maybe??). Position players vs pitchers...ALL of this in building a roster next year. I'm all for bringing a bunch of guys up after the trade deadline to see how they do at the major league level. The more information the Twins have on the guys they have NOW or acquire in the future will help guide those decisions. I've not been wanting to trade Buxton or Berrios but we have to have a pretty good idea if they'll sign long term. Right now, Buxton's "value" on MLB Trade values is only about 25. Kepler's is 30.4. That means Buxton's value is waaaay down. I'm not trading him until winter, if at all. Once he's back in the lineup I'm sure he'll build SOME of that value back. But his value will continue to be depressed until he puts up a great season with 150 games played. We've gotta keep him. Berrios on the other hand is valued at 40.8. You can get a LOT for that kind of value. His posture seems to be FA and the biggest bucket of cash he can get. If that's the case, I'm seriously looking to move him to a SP needy team that is desperate to make the playoffs and make NOISE in the playoffs. That kind of team is the Padres and Dodgers. I'm going to look at a potential trade in the "San Diego as a trade partner" article. The 40 man roster will be a source of serious debate within the Twins organization this winter, and all of us will be right in the thick of it.

Don't forget, in addition to Sano and Rooker, the Twins have Sabato coming as well.

Interesting take Mike. One small change: I would include Garver as someone I wouldn't trade, but if we have Steve Garvey to play 1B I'd hang on to that guy ! I actually like the look of the pitching staff you've laid out for next year, but there's something missing: If we trade Berrios we need to include some kind of guess as to who replaces him in the deal coming back. Thor would be a FA acquisition, not somebody we would get back in a deal for Jose. I believe that for the Twins to be "competitive" next year their pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Both SP's and RP's. Let's assume we sign Thor to a FA contract. He's coming back from TJ so this next season is quite a gamble to see how he does. Still, it's worth the gamble. We retain Maeda and possibly Pineda (it remains to be seen WHAT we could get in a Pineda deal) and MLB Trade Values puts him at -.70 for a value. We're better off keeping him. Balazovic will certainly be a strong possibility and Ryan REALLY intrigues me. But what could we get for Berrios ? If we traded him to the pitching desperate Padres we could see a return of LHP Ryan Weathers, who at 21 years old has impressed me in two separate games I watched him pitch (he's been on the IL lately but appears to be ready to start on 7/30 for the Padres vs. the Rockies) and once top pitching prospect LHP Mackenzie Gore. Berrios has a value of 40.8. Weathers is 19.4 and Gore 17.5 (36.9 total). So you can see that the Padres might even need to include something else to even things out. Personally, I'd take this deal as is. The Twins save not having to pay Berrios next season and in the future. And they have Weathers on MLB minimums for several season as well as Gore. THAT frees up money to be spent on a true closer like Rosenthal or Yates for next season as well as looking at possibly bringing Cruz back. In my GM world there is no way I'm continuing with Sano. I trade him now before the deadline or more likely this winter. I'm done with him. I look to add a 4th outfielder who can play all three positions and hit a little. He's my insurance for Buxton going down. I realize you just simply can't replace Buck when he's hurt, but you can't just fall off a cliff without him either. So now here's what I have to choose from for starting pitching: Thor, Weathers, Gore, Maeda, Ryan, Balazovic, maybe Pineda and Dobnak. That's tremendous depth. I should also include Strotman who we just acquired in the Cruz trade with Tampa Bay. He's at AAA and is very close to MLB ready. If I add a real closer (Rosenthal, Yates, ??) and retain Rogers and Duffey with Alcala and possibly someone like Edwar Colina next season I have a pen that could work. The Twins lineup needs to be done with rally killers like Sano and needs a consistent bat like Cruz. If we can't get Nellie to come back, then I would look to add a good bat. Someone like Nick Castellanos. He could play some OF, DH and maybe he or Garver could play some 1B. But the Twins would need to do SOMETHING to replace the excellence and consistency of Cruz, and with Castellanos a FA I think his bat would do quite well batting 3rd or cleanup. I could see going one more year with Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B so I can gauge what we have with Lewis. It's not the best up the middle "D" but if both Polanco and Arraez HIT like their capable we could get by. If we don't trade Berrios to the Padres for that package, the pitching hurting Dodgers are interesting. LA just won their first World Series since 1988 in a 60-game season. The pressure is on to repeat. They have Bauer in trouble, Kershaw on the IL and are stumbling and bumbling. No one does LESS with more than Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts. The Dodgers are loaded with prospects. You could trade them Berrios for Dustin May (a great young pitcher out for the season with TJ) and have your choice of several other intriguing Dodgers prospects. The Dodgers need pitching NOW. Maybe despite the fact they are always madly in love with their prospects they will feel the pressure to move some of those prospects because their rotation is in tatters and their BP has blown 3 games in row. Berrios and Taylor Rogers could bring back a TON. We have about a week for all this delicious trade speculation before the deadline and then all winter as well. Can the Twins FO navigate this to their advantage or do they crash the good ship Twins on the rocks, sending everyone into a raging sea of despair?? We'll just have to wait to find out.

I feel your pain tony&rodney. I'll be pulling for the Rays to get back to the World Series now, and I'll be hoping (after Sano stinks the rest of this season) that the Twins find a way to bring Nellie back. I just doubt it will happen. I do think Ryan was a good get in the trade. Possibly as a starter. Possibly as a Joe Nathan type of RP.

I Love Nellie Cruz ! Best of luck Nellie. Win a World Series this year and sign back with the Twins THIS winter !!

I could get on board with swapping Hassel for Gore. To compete going forward the Twins MUST pitch better. Gore is worth taking the risk you could get him to throw strikes consistently.

Baseball trade Values has Kepler at 30.4 for his value. You could get a LOT back if it was valued at 30.4. If you acquired Weathers and Clevinger from the Padres it still wouldn't be 304. If you got the Yankees (who DESPERATELY need outfielders and LH hitters right now) you could get Devi Garcia and and one of their minor league SS's. I could go on with more examples, but if you accept that baseball trade Values as a decent gauge of what you could get, then Max at 30.4 could get us a LOT !!

I don't think the Mets have enough. The Padres on the other hand DO. And now 5 games back, the pressure is building to do something that will get them over the hump...NOW. Baseball Trade Values would "validate" THIS Trade: Padres get: Berrios 40.8 and Ober 2.8 = 43.40 Total Value. Twins get: Weathers LHP 19.4 Mackenzie Gore LHP 17.5 Clevinger RHP 6.5 = 43.60 Total Value. Padres get a tremendous boost to their starting rotation and an additional year of Berrios, and a young pitcher (Ober) who is already up throwing Big League innings. Twins get a young LH-SP in Weathers with potential who is currently on the IL. Gore who can't seem to find the strike zone the last couple years (the pressure would be on the twins to "Fix Him) and Clevinger a RH-SP who is out for the season and an injury risk. If things break the Twins way, they are well on their way to a good starting rotation. If Gore can't throw strikes and Clevinger keeps getting hurt it's a disaster. (you could also possibly switch Blake Snell 4.4 with Clevinger to weight it a little more toward the Padres. Snell can't seem to find the plate consistently or last more than 5 innings but the Padres would get a very dependable starter for their #2 or #3 behind Darvish.

I certainly could see both traded. I would bet Berrios at the deadline to a team like the Dodgers or Padres and Buxton this winter once he plays as this season winds down and he builds back some value. Baseball Trade Values has Max Kepler worth 30.4 points and Buxton at only 25.3. To me, that means trade Kepler to the Yankees NOW (they are desperate for OF'ers & LH hitters, Kepler is both), Here's how the trade would look: Yanks get: Kepler 30.4 Bechtold .70 Pineda -.7 Smeltzer 2.8 33.20 Twins get: Devi Garcia RHP 14.8 Vargas SS 14.50 Clint Frazier 1.8 M. Andujar 1.7 32.80 Yankees get a LH power bat and OF'er they desperately need as well as Pineda in the rotation and Smeltzer for depth. Twins get a young SP and the Yanks 3rd best SS prospect as well as two young but to this point disappointing players in Andujar and Frazier. Frazier replaces Kepler and Andujar is a 3B, LF and maybe 1B type who could be insurance if Donaldson and or Sano are moved. I trade Berrios before the deadline to the Dodgers or Padres---whoever ponies up the best package. I trade Buxton this winter when his value is rebuilt.

Never underestimate how desperate the Yankee's need is to WIN. That's what they do. It's expected of them. Let's make it a blockbuster: Yankee's get: Buxton 25.3 Berrios 40.8 Cavaco 5.7 Pineda 1.0 Smeltzer 2.8 = 75.60 Twins get: Jasson Dominguez 38.0 OF D. Garcia RHP 14.8 Clint Frazier 1.8 Vargas SS 14.5 Luis Gil RHP 8.0 77.1 Remember: Never underestimate the Yankee's need to WIN and WIN NOW. The Yankees need rotation help. NOW. Berrios & Pindea are an instant infusion of starting pitching talent. And their OF is in tatters. Especially CF. Buxton gives them MVP caliber talent at that position. THAT's why you ask for Dominguez...and GET HIM. You add Frazier as a SH OF'er to fill in for now and see if he can regain his value back. You add a nice, young RH SP to your rotation and get a solid SS prospect back who is not even NY's TOP rated SS (That would be Oswaldo Peraza 23.6). Yankee fans and the New York media would be all over the Yanks FO if they turned down a trade like this. And I think you could get even a little bit more from NY if you had multiple suiters (Dodgers, Padres, Braves etc...)

I've GOT to believe the Twins have offers out to BOTH Buxton & Berrios (and I would suspect Rogers as well). I've thought long and hard about this and if I had to choose between keeping Buxton or Berrios...I keep Berrios. The Twins will not be contenders until their pitching improves...A LOT. Plus, they are SO used to playing WITHOUT Buxton. I do not give Buxton away. But he's who I move (especially if 5-years and $100 million isn't enough). The Yankees, Dodgers, Padres, Braves, could ALL be interested in Buxton. And despite the Dodgers aversion to giving up "prospects" now that they finally won a World Series last year (their first since 1988 !!) the pressure is even greater to win again. May has great upside, but Berrios would help them win NOW (as would Buxton and Rogers). Seager ain't going anywhere. The Dodgers will PAY HIM. Lux, if his "D" is O.K. would step right in at SS. The Padres with Weathers, Hassell, Paddock have all sorts of interesting players. The Yankees are as big a disappointment as the Twins this year and do you think Yankee's fans have the "patience" Twins fans do ??? With the demand/need for players like Buxton/Berrios/Rogers we could actually end up getting MORE than we would think for them, because each would be a difference maker wherever they go.

Spot on Doc ! They need to start matriculating these arms up the ladder in their system. "Arms" are funny things. Some can throw for years and years, and some burn out relatively early. I'm of the philosophy that a pitcher doesn't need to be "completely" polished before you move him up to the big team. Blyleven wasn't completely polished when the Twins called him up in 1970. Neither was Don Sutton for the Dodgers in 1966 or Jim Palmer in 1966 for the Orioles. Those are 3 HOF'ers who "made it" so I know I'm being biased. (none of them were Eddie Bane). But sometimes you have to just pull the trigger and stop worrying about "perfection."

I agree Mike ! I'm not anxious to give up one of Garver, Jeffers or Rortvedt but catching is ALWAYS at a premium and with the exception of Rortvedt (whose hitting needs work) the other two could be considered quite valuable. I like that Ted mentioned Jesus Luzardo as a possible trade candidate. He's been a big disappointment to the A's but is certainly the prime type of prospect the Twins should be targeting. He would be penciled in as one of our 5 starters next season and the upside is there. He needs to be healthy but he also needs refinement. What magic could Johnson work with him?? A package of Cruz and Pineda for Luzardo and something more would be a good trade on paper for BOTH teams.

Maybe it's time to move Balazovic up a level. His last two starts show he's out-classing his current level. I'd love to sim him eventually get a couple of starts in an end of the season call up. When he's healthy, he's fun to watch operate.

I would not prouster. In projected deals with the Dodgers and Padres the Twins got: Dodgers---Dustin May and 2 other good pieces. Padres---LHP Ryan Weathers (who has impressed me this year at 21-years old) and a CF prospect that is about a year away who is VERY good. He would provide insurance for Buxton should things get "messy." Those proposed deals have moved me the closest I've been to even consider moving Berrios and/or Taylor Rogers. Pieces like Cruz, Donaldson, Sano, Pineda, Robles, Simmons, ALL need to be prioritized in trading. Berrios, Rogers, Buxton will need to see the Twins blown away to even consider. Each one is needed to be relevant for 2022 and could be dealt at the deadline next year if things don't come together for the Twins. I consider this year more an aberration than "the verdict is in" for the Twins. But there is NO DOUBT some serious re-tooling is needed.

I agree with the idea of trading hitters like Cruz, Donaldson and certainly Sano if I can get a decent bag of baseballs for him. But we will NOT be better in 2022 or 2023 if we trade the best pitchers we have. Moving contracts like Sano, Cruz and Donaldson would give the twins $$$ to sign some pitching and hopefully a SS of the caliber of a Baez (or bringing Simmons back). I WOULD consider trading Pineda for the right package and I think they will do this. They need to sign TWO SP's for next year and give Dobnak innings to see if he fits in their plans. Maybe Odorizzi could be resigned...they would have some options. And they still need another SOLID option at the back of the BP, someone like a Rosenthal or Yates. I think they have enough hitting even if Cruz, Donaldson and Sano are gone, but in ANY year the Twins have been contenders, they have had above average pitching. You have young guys that are getting close, but the SP's and BP's need reinforcement. Trading Berrios would be a big mistake. SIGN HIM. Rogers is a key player. To deal him you need a NICE return and you have to have a plan for the BP in 2022 WITHOUT him.

I like this pick ! Power arm. Potential staff Ace. First, sign hi. Then start coaching him up to iron out his command issues. But I like the Twins being aggressive regarding a power arm.

Right now the Twins rotation projects to be a mess next season, even if they sign Berrios long term and Maeda regains his command. SOMEONE out of Balazovic, Canterino, Enlow, Ober and Duran needs to step up.

This is a trade that is inevitable. I've LOVED his time here and will probably root for whatever team gets him in the post season, but this year just didn't work out for the Twins. Move Nellie to a contender and get something back that could help us in a year or two. I'm not expecting a 1987 Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz return (remember, Alexander went 10-1 for the Tigers) but the Twins should get something "useful" for Nellie.

Either trade would be pretty good...even though I'm not overly eager to trade Berrios/Rogers. As a Twins fan #1 and a Dodgers fan #2 I would be O.K. with the Dodgers deal. Berrios is durable and dependable. May is coming back from Tommy John surgery. And Rogers gives the Dodgers a dependable LH arm out of the bullpen who could possibly close in 2022. However, even though the trade adds up in San Diego's favor, I like Hassell and Weathers. THAT would be a trade that (I can't believe I'm saying this) would be HAPPY with. Weathers is just 21. Hassell is just 19. These are guys you can build around for years. The other two are good filler with "potential." I'd make this trade.

I would rather KEEP Rogers since I think he's been the only truly reliable arm in our pen for 3+ seasons. HOWEVER, since the genius known as "Rocco" sees fit to have a "closer by committee" and we've shown all year long that Colome, Robles and company are very good at blowing games I'm more inclined to move him than keep him if the prospect haul is outstanding. Heck, if you're not going to use your BEST to close let someone else have him. This might explain why the FO failed to sign a closer of note and went with bargain basement guys. If your manager doesn't really know HOW to use a closer why employ one and then ultimately have to PAY one.

I too was a big fan of Max since he came up. His inability to use the whole field (especially against LHP) is killing him. I hate to say this, because the Pohlad's should operate us like the St. Louis Cardinals and not the Tampa Bay Rays, but Max is just too "pricey" to be a 4th OF'er. Trading him seems to be the best solution. According to Baseball Trade Values, Kepler still has a value of about 34.0. That kind of value could bring some serious talent back in a trade. Maybe Max will have his value "revised and downgraded." But at 34.0 he's got LOTS of value where you could move him for young pitching or a team with a lot of young SS talent.

I'm hoping the plan is a re-tool, but still with some major changes. You've laid the basic premise out nicely Mike8791. I'm going to go with the easy stuff first: Cut bait on Sano. Either move him at the trade deadline for a bag of baseballs (for salary relief) or simply buy him out for $2.75 million at seasons end and be done with him. Look for takers on Max Kepler. I don't think Max will ever get back to his 2019 form. I wonder how much of a mirage that was for a LOT of our players. But he is still a very good defensive RF'er. He has value and should be moved to a team looking for OF help. I would leave our catching personnel alone. Jeffers and Rortvedt are struggling offensively but should improve. Garver can be used as a catcher/1B/DH type of bat. I'm not averse to moving Donaldson for the right package. Arraez can hold down 3B and/or Miranda. Cruz COULD be dealt for the right package but I'd be O.K. if we kept him. It depends what teams would be willing to part with. I'd be happy to keep Nellie for another year. With Donaldson, Sano and Kepler gone that would be about $40-$45 million freed up. Some of that would be used to re-sign Berrios and Buxton. The rest, to plug holes. And there are plenty of holes. I don't think Simmons is back with the Twins next year. I don't think Lewis will be a SS in the future and with him missing the entire season this year he can't be counted on for anything until late next season at the best. This means serious money needs to be allocated for a long-term SS. I see Story and Baez as targets. Polanco belongs at 2B. If this team hopes to be relevant the next 2-3 years they need a SS !! One other point: I've finally, after a lot of musing, decided that between Berrios and Buxton if I keep one and part ways with the other, would keep Berrios. PITCHING is what will make the Twins a playoff-competitive team. it ALWAYS is. Look back on Twins history. In 1962-63 they pitched and finished 2nd & 3rd to the Yankees. In 1964 they had GREAT hitting, but didn't pitch well and finished 7th ! In 1965 they pitched and won the A.L. Pennant despite missing Killebrew for half the season. In 1966 & 1967 they pitched and were runner-ups. In 1969 & 1970 their pitching was good and they won the division. Fast forward to last year. They won the division because they pitched much better than they hit. We will NOT be better next year, if, as a team that has pitching issues, we trade Berrios or Rogers. We could possibly be better without Pineda but NOT without Berrios. In the entire time Buxton has been a Twin it seems like he's played in half the games. We've learned how to play without him and still be good. Are we better WITH him ?? Clearly, we are. But if I'm going to make a blockbuster and get an insane return of value for a player, I part with Buxton (who was playing like an A.L. MVP). We do NOT trade Buxton for anything less than an insane return. Someone either blows us away, or we give him a 3-year $80 million dollar contract and see what the next 3-years turns out to be. If we DO deal Buxton, acquire someone like Kevin Kiermaier to play CF if you don't think Celestino will work out. And you still have Lewis (who I think will end up in CF). There has been more disappointment/failure with this front office than successes. I must admit, I'm not very confident they can turn things around. The White Sox are crushing the division (as was predicted) despite losing Robert and Jimenez for the entire season to date. And the White Sox has some young pitchers who are impressive. Cleveland can flat out pitch. The Tigers have some very impressive young arms. This FO has to figure this out or we're looking at another decade of mediocrity. Time will tell.

I agree with Doc Bauer, this year has been a LOT like 2018. Every move the vaunted FO made for 2018 blew up in their faces. This season has been a repeat. Falvey and Levine handed Molitor a crap roster in 2018 and then used the 100 loss season to fire him. I'm not advocating for the Twins to fire Rocco, but let's be honest, Rocco has had a BAD year. Here's a wild idea...Trade Donaldson and Simmons to the Mets for Lindor. The Mets are supposedly worried about going over the luxury tax and Mets fans, based on the comments from the link are very DOWN on Lindor. Let's take Lindor off their hands. Whatever you think of that crazy idea, the Twins need to move Donaldson. They need a SS (either Lindor in the trade or a Story/Baez move next year).

Pitching is why we won the division last year. It is why the White Sox are winning the division and we aren't. To win next year and in the future, you need to build a staff AROUND Berrios. That's why, if the Twins make a blockbuster trade it should involve Buxton (ALL THAT POTENTIAL) and not Berrios. We've probably played HALF or more of our games WITHOUT Buxton since he came up. We're used to it. Berrios takes the ball every 5th day. I trade Buxton. I SIGN Berrios.