TopGunn#22

I was hoping more for a Paxton signing (at least we have a LHP in the rotation). If they had to pay Happ at 38 yrs old $8 million what is Paxton worth/asking for ? I know we're all hoping for something BIG but this is about what the Twins ALWAYS do With the exception of Donaldson.

I agree Mikelink45 it's time for the Twins to eclipse the Hansel Robles signing. I too am tired of all these "great fits" with nothing happening. To the idea that we should shy away from Simmons because it might hurt the "feelings" of Polanco or Arraez TOUGH CRAP ! The Twins are in the business of winning baseball games, and hopefully their first playoff game victory in 18 years, NOT holding the hands of players who might be "triggered" by someone taking their place in the lineup or on the field. As a matter of fact, trading Polanco to the Reds in a package for Gray and Castellanos might just be in the realm of possibility. Nobody wants to bring Marwan back because he's priced himself out of the Twins plans for what they get in return. There are much better options available.

I had just posted that I thought the Twins should sign BOTH Paxton and Odorizzi to 2-year deals. If they only signed ONE, I'd want Paxton (we need a Lefty in the rotation). If I was going to take a flyer on a guy who could come back to former promise I think I'd go for Mike Foltynewicz. He's still relatively young and he he could probably be had on a 2-way contract. What does Wes Johnson think of him? That would be my take. If Johnson sees something he could fix Folty could pay big dividends at a low cost.

I agree, Simmons on a 2-year $12.0 million per year deal works better. I'm not sure when Lewis would be up in 2021 (if at all) and then 2022 would give you a chance to see Lewis as your "Super Utility" guy. I'm a HUGE Nellie Cruz guy. But I think while Nellie WANTS $16 million, he's not going to get that from anybody even if the N.L. adopts the DH (and it's sounding like the owners are holding that back until 2022 for leverage). I see the upside of Paxton as higher than Odorizzi but Odo is much more of a sure thing durability wise. I'd go 2 years for both with Odo getting 2 yrs $26 million and Paxton 2-years $20 million. That way I've got a very solid staff top to bottom in 2021 and I've got a replacement for Pineda in 2022 and I'm ready to give a shot Duran or Balazovic (or both if things get sticky with Berrios). This is also why I don't spend $16 million for Cruz. I can have BOTH Odorizzi and Paxton for $23 without giving Cruz $16. I think Rosenthal would be a GREAT signing and I'd go 2-years with him as well at $7 mil per year. But here's a BIG departure I have with Nick. If I can actually get Yates on a 1-year $5 million dollar contract why would I even consider Clippard at $3 million ?? What is the ceiling of Yates vs Clippard at just $2 million more ?? No-Brainer. And there's no reason the Twins couldn't have BOTH Rosenthal and Yates if we have to give serious consideration to the rampant speculation that the Mets, despite having Diaz are ready to sign Brand Hand. 5 guys: Simmons, Odorizzi, Paxton, Rosenthal and Yates add $47 million. That's doable. We fill DH with a combo of Kiriloff, Donaldson, Sano, Garver, Rooker, Polanco, Arraez and Larnach. (that's 8 guys) !! As ToddlerHarmon pointed out, up the middle "D" with Buxton, Simmons, Jeffers is tremendous. Polanco and Arraez are 2B, Super UT guys who are regular bats in the lineup. You build a great rotation with an awesome BP and count on bounceback years from Kepler, Sano, Garver, Polanco and you give enough AB's to Kiriloff, Rooker and Larnach to see what you've got with the young guys. Maybe later in the summer Lewis is up and in the mix. Here, you're not trading a bunch of promising prospects for a Castillo or Marquez. And you're giving your young hitters a chance to show you something. Simmons hasn't been the most durable guy lately but you still have Polanco able to fill in at SS. (and Lewis waiting in the wings) You would need to commit to bringing Rooker and Kiriloff north (service time be damned with Kiriloff) right off the bat. This would be a team that could compete for a Central Division title and make a deep run in the playoffs. And let's face it if Kepler, Sano, Garver and Polanco don't return to 2019 form no matter WHAT the Twins do it won't be enough. Depending on how they do and how other players like a Jeffers, Lewis, Taylor Rogers, Kepler develop/bounce back you could even rebuild trade value on a Sano, Polanco or Garver.

Since TD doesn't recognize punctuation: Castellanos and Moose are NEGATIVE values. Lorenzen is a 4.70 value. Twins give up 101.4 in value Reds give up 99.90

I like this thought process, so let's roll thru a couple of possible trades" To get only Marquez 91.2 trade value: Larnach 35.9 Duran 17.9 Jeffers 23.8 Dobnak 10.0 Smeltzer 4.7 TOTAL 92.30 Marquez 91.2 + Trevor Story 33.70 = 124.9 Arraez 43.4 Larnach 35.9 Sano 12.2 Duran 17.9 Dobnak 10.0 Smeltzer 4.7 TOTAL 124.10 Neither of these deals make any sense for the Twins unless they sign both Marquez and Story to extensions. Polanco moves to 2B. But the starting staff, infield "D" and lineup is improved tremendously. Maeda, Berrios, Marquez, Pineda, sign Jon Paxton--great starting staff Still need a BP arm & UT guy. The Reds Luis Castillo and either Castellanos or Moustakas to take on salary and add a little more THUNDER to the lineup. You have to take one of these guys back just to lower the cost for Castillo. Castillo 114.8 (yup, that's right, 114.8 !) Castellanos -17.60 Moose -19.6 TOTAL Reds value 96.20 Twins get Castillo and either Moose or Castellanos and Lorenzen RP 4.70 99.90 total. Reds Get: Polanco 32.8 Larnach 35.9 Garver 18.0 Dobnak 10.0 Smeltzer 4.7 TOTAL 101.4 Castillo, Maeda, Berrios, Pineda and sign Jon Paxton. That's quite a starting staff. Lorenzen is a solid arm deepening the BP.

If I could get Paxton for $6 million I'd do it. We need a LH Starter. He's got tremendous upside. $6 million is not too big a risk. But unless Dobnak is involved in a trade for someone like Ketel Marte he's the #5 until Dhuran or Balazovic show they're ready.

It is odd that the best SS's the Twins have ever had (other than Zoilo) have all been acquired via trade (Cardenas, Gagne, Guzman come to mind). It is also true than Polanco was an A.L. All Star due to his bat, not his glove. I want to see the Twins get better "D" up the middle. That's why I'm not against looking at a FA signing (Simmons, Didi) or a trade for someone like Story. However, if a BIG move was made for someone like Story, I want the Twins to work out an extension much like the Mets did with Lindor. I don't want a one-year rental. I have no superior knowledge, I just see Lewis more as an outfielder. I still have hope for Wander Javier but this is pretty much a make or break year for him. He either stays healthy and puts himself back in the serious SS of the future conversation, or I fear he will never turn the corner and drift into the dust bin of forgotten prospects.

Neither. I'd work a trade for Ketel Marte

I think Bauer would not only be FUN but he'd be a RIOT. Osuna would be REALLY FUN. He will NEVER be the "K" machine Sano is. NEVER. Story would be more fun for me than Baez. I don't need the "flair" but I'll take a .290 BA with 35 HR's and 110 RBI along with solid, Gold Glove caliber defense. (But I wouldn't turn my nose up at that Baez "flair" either. I agree about Rosenthal. There's something about a guy coming in at the end of a game and hitting triple digits.

Can't really disagree with your assessment jrod23.

I'm not high on a Kluber move. I'd rather go after Paxton and at 1.5-2.0 million I'd take another chance on Rich Hill.

Sometimes WAR is such a difficult "measurement" or "projection" to understand. Arraez and Madrigal are very similar players. Arraez has a full season more of "accomplishment" yet he is 1.0 less than Madrigal. Abreau is a year older, yes, but coming off an A.L. MVP season. Sano failed miserably last year to build on his 2019 success, yet Sano is a 2.0 WAR and Abreu is 1.6. I agree, the Twins need to start making some significant moves, and that would somewhat change the projection. But I'm left shaking my head at some of these WAR projections.

The reason I make a trade for Story is that i think he's head and shoulders better than Baez, Semien and Simmons. I'd rather trade for Story over Baez (even with the "connection" between Baez and Berrios) because he's right there with Baez defensively and he's just flat out a better hitter. I'd rather "SIGN" the SS (Semien, Simmons) from a standpoint of saving assets to improve other weak links on the roster. Simmons is who I prefer because he's THE most elite defender at SS in baseball. He's also the most injury prone and while not an offensive liability is a #8, #9 hitter on the Twins.

I've been a Cruz guy all off season I usually say something like "He's our BEST hitter, and it's not even close." However... As the cold winter dims my memory of Cruz Bombas or clutch 2-out RBI's I've had to reconsider. Steamer's projections certainly look realistic I can see those stats more than a .290-.300 BA and .500 Slugging Percentage. One question though: I don't claim to understand all the metrics of "Steamers" projections, but if Trevor Story has a higher batting average, OBP and Slugging Percentage than Cruz and his speed on the bases would allow him to score from 2nd on singles and from 1st on doubles---how can his wRC+ be LESS than Nellie's ??? Improving our defense at SS is a PLUS. Getting Younger is a PLUS. Getting more speed on the basepaths is a PLUS. Adding a better Starting Pitcher to the rotation is a PLUS. Adding another GOOD arm to the BP (Hand, Bradley, Hendricks) is a PLUS. Adding someone like Ketel Marte would be a PLUS. (this would necessitate a trade of Polanco or Arraez for further improvements). SP ?? I hate to say it but the well thought out articles about moving on from Nellie are changing my mind. And yes. I could see the White Sox gobble Cruz up if we move in a different direction. THAT would be hard to swallow but still probably the right thing to do.

The gap between what Garver did in 2019 vs what he did in 2020 is HUGE. Which player is he ?? I think 2021 will answer that question, and as it is answered, the Twins will find out what they have in the way of "catching capital." If Garver is even 75% of what he was in 2019, the Twins have a VERY big trade chip in either Garver or Jeffers. Catching talent is always at a premium and I think Rortvedt is close to making it to the big leagues. Jeffers is going to have a solid career so whoever the Twins would trade, they would still be O.K. So assuming Garver bounces back. The Trade deadline is approaching. The Reds still have Luis Castillo. Garver, Larnach and a little something else for Castillo ? Who knows? But I think this might be the year the Twins finally make a big move at the Trade Deadline. Their entire history is to do nothing of significance at the Trade Deadline. When Don Baylor is your claim to fame, that ain't much. Cooper is right to leave SS/2B open because it sure looks like SOMETHING is cooking at SS and whatever happens there will affect who ends up at 2B. Cooper, you've laid it out pretty well. Now the Twins have to start filling in the blanks.

Nash, I'm on the same page page with tony&rodney, I'd like to kick the tires on a Ketel Marte trade if possible. He's a solid bat and he fills so many possible holes for the Twins. He can play CF, 2B, SS some 3B and I'm sure a corner outfield spot if needed. He would be a regular player, in the lineup every day at a myriad of positions. I'm also in agreement with Dr. Gast. I like Polanco, but I would like an upgrade defensively at SS. Baez, Story and Simmons are not just better defensively than Polanco they are all elite. Story and Baez are elite offensively as well. Simmons is not bad with the bat, just not in Story or Baez company. So this is where it gets interesting. I am a big fan of both Polanco and Nelson Cruz. I agree if we acquired Story, that it would be a stretch to keep Cruz AND solidify the rotation and bullpen. Baez can be had more cheaply in a trade but is a step below Story offensively. IF the Twins acquired Ketel Marte (and of course depending what they had to give up) as well as let's say Baez, then something would need to be done about Polanco/Arraez. I value Arraez highly. He should be our everyday, table-setting leadoff hitter. But one of Polanco or Arraez would need to be traded. One stays and plays 2B.

Thanks Nash, I needed this dose of Twins Medicine. Watching the Padres and White Sox fire volley after volley while Twins fans duck for cover had left me shell shocked. I'm better now.

Folty represents a tremendous opportunity for the Twins. Much better than Chacin was last year. If they can get him on a minor league contract and he works out, it would be the kind of low risk, high reward move every team needs. DO IT.

I've looked at a trade for Marquez on baseballtrades.com and he's incredibly expensive. Still, I've been pushing for the Twins to get him for awhile. maybe a blockbuster involving Story AND Marquez.

Bingo ! Just what i was going to suggest as well Seansy. In another thread, I just pointed out how well positioned the Twins are to go ahead and make a COUPLE of splash moves this off-season based on where the payroll commitments are now and where the young "affordable" talent is at on the payroll spectrum.

Good article Schwerz, well stated. The Twins have won the last 2 Division Titles but the Indi...the Cleveland Baseball Team always pitches well and the Chi-Sox are on a mission. The Twins have LOTS of young and affordable players making it reasonable to expect some moves for veteran talent. Arraez, Garver, Jeffers, Polanco, Kepler, Buxton, Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, everybody not named Taylor Rogers in the BP are all at affordable levels. Lewis should be on the team soon. Balazovic and Dhuran not far behind. Enlow, Chalmers and others too. Sano at $11 million is not a death blow, but to trade him would be wonderful. Maeda, Berrios and Pineda aren't breaking the bank. The only "heavy" salary they have is Donaldson and we should expect more out of him in 2021. Maybe Cruz for one more year. The teams willing to stretch a little now will be well set up to compete in 2021-2022. The Twins NEED to make some major moves to remain competitive with the hard charging White Sox. The Twins are uniquely positioned to make some splash moves with talent on hand and talent set to arrive SOON and a payroll that is certainly manageable. YES ! They can afford Bauer. YES ! They need to determine which tradeable assets are key to future success and which should be moved to acquire major league talent for 2021 and beyond. Whether that talent is a Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, German Marquez, Jon Gray, or a Paxton, Castellanos, Hendricks, Hand, Story, Semien, Simmons, Didi Gregorious, Ketel Marte, Archie Bradley, Kiki Hernandez ETC.... They need to figure that out FAST. Before the padres or White Sox acquire EVERYBODY.

I agree to a degree jkcarew. We shouldn't have to wait until Lewis is 25 years old to see if he can play in the big leagues. Get him up THIS year as the super-utility. That allows you to devote $$$ to signing a difference maker like Bauer. I have no problem considering a Baez trade. But as was previously stated 2 guys between 5-15 as prospects should be the price. What I LIKE about Baez is that he's tremendous defensively. He's also durable---which is why I slightly prefer him over Simmons but still think Simmons is a better move than Semien. If you could get the Cubs to take Polanco and 10-15 prospect I'm willing. Until Polanco stops stepping in the bucket so bad, left-handed I'm not sure he gets back to his offensive level. But he's wholly inadequate defensively. Arraez is our 2B-man. He's good with the bat, below average on "D." We need better infield "D."

I think you right Mike. The only other move that would really move the needle is a trade that brings Luis Castillo to the Twins. The only way we can do that is by taking Castellanos in the deal. And it would still be expensive and probably mean no Nellie Cruz. But we need a stud added to our rotation that makes a difference. Paxton or Odorizzi would be helpful, but not difference makers in the post-season. Only Bauer or Castillo do that. And I think after the moves the Padres made, the Dodgers might feel the need to do something BIG.

tony&rodney, I looked at a Castillo trade and he's incredibly valuable. Few are close to his value. The Twins would have to take on Castellanos (which wouldn't be horrible except that would be the end of Cruz in a Twins uniform). But they would probably have to include someone like Larnach and MORE to come close. I'm going to go to baseballtradevalues.com and come up with something specific to get Castillo.