TopGunn#22

This was a good exercise Nick. Especially with you using the framework of a $130 budget. Of course, I have some "differences" but that's what makes this site so fun. I'm not spending $20 for Verlander even if he was outstanding before suffering the injury. Logically, I see him getting a QO from Houston and ending up back there. I'll spend that $20 per year for 4-years on Robbie Ray. I'll consider it for Gausman and Stroman. Either way, I want a guy who I can go to battle with for 3-4 years. At 39 years old, Verlander is not that guy. I'm trading for at least ONE top of the rotation starter. I'm not trading Kepler. His value is too low and I need his defense and will work on his approach this off season. I'd have him watch hours of Freddie Freeman video. I'm considering trading Larnach, Jeffers, Arraez and probably one of my younger arms not ready for the majors yet (but not Balazovic). By leveraging those players I think I can come up with two pretty solid SP's. So I'm building a staff that starts with my $20 million guy, followed by one or two SP's acquired in a trade, followed by Ryan, Ober and then a mid-tier FA signing like Jon Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez and a bargain signing like Andrew Heaney. The Twins need more than 5 SP's with a couple of rookies on innings/pitch limits at the bottom of the rotation. I love the Yates signing. At $1 million it's a worthy gamble. I think Heaney is a better option than Neris because his stuff is better and he could start or be converted to the bullpen. I'd go for Canha instead of Dickerson. They need a RH bat in LF. I like a Galvis/Iglesias type of signing but I'd also talk to the Royals about Adelberto Mondesi and see what it would take to pry him away. He's kind of like Buxton. All sorts of talent and athleticism but always hurt. With Lopez playing so well at SS last year and Bobby Witt jr on the way soon, the Royals may be ready to move on from Mondesi. I'd find out what it would take. I have no idea if my "plan" would be in the ballpark of your $130 budget. But spending $10 million more next year to field a contender is worth it to the Twins.

I like all three at the prices listed, maybe even a little higher. The fact is, the Twins need a LOT of pitchers. Ryan and Ober will be a part of the rotation but be on innings and pitch limits. Ed Rod would be a solid signing. Pineda as was mentioned earlier is PREDICTABE. He'll spend some time on the I.L. but for the most part give you decent innings and keep you in games. Heaney is a lottery ticket, and if the Twins do what they SHOULD, and that is to sign one top tier SP (someone "like" but not necessarily, Robbie Ray) and trade for someone "like" Sandy Alcantara, Frankie Montas or Chris Bassitt, they are going to need to sign a "bargain basement" guy like Heaney. Heaney has tremendous stuff. He's got a TON more potential than a Shoemaker or Happ. I'd sign him as a SP but I also like the idea of trying him in the BP. Rollie Fingers made the transition. So did Dennis Eckersly. There are plenty of guys who washed out as SP's but became GOOD RP's.

I know there was a "50 innings limit" but I think everyone on here would have liked some kind of mention of Joe Ryan. There was just too much GOOD there despite the occasional 3-run HR.

They need to Brandon. They will have every one of those young pitchers on pitch and innings limits. Plus, I don't think Maeda is pitching at all next year. They need at least 2 other SP's in addition to Pineda and I'd maintain they need a 4th. I'd go with a 6-man pitching staff with Ryan and Ober #5 & #6. And from time to time, those guys would be "skipped" to further protect them. They may get some reinforcements from the minors (Balazovic, Winder, Duran) but they can't "count" on them.

I agree with the idea that Ober was probably on a pitch/innings limit, as he should be after 2020. However, the real reason most pitchers don't go more than 5 innings nowadays is that EVERYTHING is geared toward MAXIMUM EFFORT on EVERY pitch. Velocity is KING now, as is SPIN RATE. The pitchers of my youth: Koufax, Gibson, Marichal, Seaver, Carlton, Blyleven (who all had good fastballs and curveballs) or Palmer, Sutton, Lolich, Jim Perry and others (how about Mike Cuellar) didn't expend "maximum effort on every pitch. They "pitched." I miss those old days. I liked baseball "that way." But those guys were expected to go 7 innings "minimum" and often times finish the game. The paradigm for pitching has changed for baseball along with many other things. It's STILL "baseball" but different from the game I grew up loving. (fade to picture of "bitter old TopGunn" sitting in his rocker in a corner of the retirement home, nursing a beer and grumbling as I watch a baseball game).

Starling Marte would be "just what the Dr. ordered" tony&rodney !! He would be our LF'er and leadoff hitter and play CF when Buxton needs a day off (or, hopefully not, but when Byron gets injured). However, I see teams easily outbidding us and Marte probably looking to go to a big market team. HOWEVER, Canha could be just the "value signing" the Twins could use. He's decent in LF and he's got some "pop." He's kind of like SS Paul DeJong. He would improve our defense and give us a RH bat in LF. I like the potential of Celestino, but think he could use most of 2022 in St. Paul. Maybe Canha takes a one-year "prove it" deal while the Twins figure out what they have with Martin, Celestino, Lewis, Gordon, Larnach and Rooker. (maybe Kiriloff as well, but I see him more at 1B and Sano more at DH). I want the Twins to be competitive next year. I'd like to show a little more patience with many of our young guys. Players like Mondesi, DeJong, and Canha could and should be considered.

It will ALWAYS come down to what each would cost. But assuming (I know...ass-u-me) that we would spend to get one of these arms my order of preference would be: Graveman, Knebel, Tepera. Not really interested in Bradley unless he comes for a really "Twins" favorable deal, and Bradley is NOT my closer. He's just another "arm" somewhere in the pecking order. But aside from taking care of Buxton, the Twins are going to need to acquire at least 3 SP's and I would advocate FOUR because the Ryan's and Ober's (and even the Balzovic's) will all be on innings limits and pitch limits. We need more SP's than many people posting here realize.

I agree Cody, I would like to see the Twins go after Mondesi from the Royals as option #1. DeJong has a good glove and power. His OPS has been slipping but maybe a chance of scenery would help. Sosa has beaten him out, and it's been mentioned that the Cards may be in on Story. Either way, DeJong can be acquired VERY cheaply and would be an upgrade. As long as Rocco refuses to make Arraez our leadoff hitter on a full-time basis, I'm trading him for pitching (which the Twins need desperately and need MULTIPLE options, especially in the rotation). I like Austin Martin as our utility guy in 2022. But the Twins also have Gordon as well, so with Polanco firmly entrenched at 2B, Arraez is worth more as a trade chip to add pitching and some team (Oakland)? would see value in him as their everyday 2B-man.

Johan SHOULD be a Hall of famer (just like Tony Oliva should---good grief Harold Baines IS and Oliva ISN'T ??). Santana should be looked at like Sandy Koufax. Koufax does not have the career numbers of someone like Don Sutton. But even though Sutton IS in the Hall and he belongs in the Hall, nobody would disagree that Koufax would be in an elevated "wing" of the Hall when compared to Sutton. Santana was simply a dominant pitcher in the time he was in the league. And if he HAD won that 3rd Cy Young (like he should have) it would be pretty difficult for a 3-time Cy Young winner NOT to be in the Hall of Fame.

Nice, well thought out and explained article Andrew. I, personally have no idea what they should pay him. I only know, that when he PLAYS...he's very good. Your article lays a foundation of how the Twins (and Byron as well) should approach this. A solid "BASE" salary, and then incentives for games played to reach an overall salary. This protects the Twins should Byron, once again, get injured. It also protects the potential future earnings of Buxton and would incentivize him to remain a Twin. And look, once the Twins and Byron settle on what he's "worth" if the Twins are unable to put together a pitching staff (like the Angels with Trout) then teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox and Mets will STILL be willing to trade for him. But as a front office, the Twins can't just let him walk. They MUST get a deal done.

Thor's health (or lack thereof) scares me. He'd look great in a Twins uniform and if you could absolutely COUNT on him giving you 200 innings I'd sign him in a New York minute. But, I think he'll break down. Robbie Ray would be my top target. Decent, but not top of rotation guys I'd be interested in: Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray, Danny Duffy. Health always is a factor when considering FA pitchers. While Thor would be too expensive a gamble for me, I'd be willing to take a look at James Paxton, but I'd have to feel VERY confident he's capable of 150 innings. Alex Wood, Kwang Hyun Kim, Pineda, Heaney are others. But while the Twins should sign one Big Time pitcher (Robbie Ray) or two mid-level (Ed Rodriguez/Jon Gray) I think the best avenue to acquire Starting Pitching is thru TRADES. When 40% of your projected starting rotation are YOUNG guys like Ryan & Ober, who are certainly going to be on some kind of innings limit, you need to bring in some veteran pitchers with a proven track record who can give you innings. Mid season reinforcements like Balazovic, Winder or Duran would help, but it's a LONG season and a LOT of innings need to be accounted for. That's why FA signings and trades will BOTH need to be employed.

Oh, I think Arraez could get MUCH more than just a "decent" relief pitcher. His Baseball Trade Value is 34.10. (Polanco is 45.0) That could get the Twins either Sean Manaea (19.7) or Chris Bassitt (21.7) straight up from the A's with James Kapriellian (10.6) thrown in. Arraez would be the A's starting 2B-man and leadoff hitter. I'd be happy with a deal like that. Or, I'd aim high and trade Arraez 34.1 and Canterino 9.6 = 43.7 total for Frankie Montas 44.1. The A's are going to be retooling this winter and a number of their players are going to be on the block. Arraez gets them a team controlled starting 2B-man with bat skills. So yeah, I'm shooting for STARTING pitchers with Arraez, not just a "decent' relief pitcher.

It's a good plan. Well thought out and well laid out. I have a couple suggestions of what I would do instead: I keep Donaldson and trade Arraez to the A's in a package for Frankie Montas. I keep Garver, and trade Jeffers and Larnach to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara. I would still be interested in signing Jon Gray/Mike Pineda to the above mentioned contracts. I'd also consider Eduardo Rodriguez as a FA. But I add one of those three guys. I prefer Rodriguez first, Gray second and Pineda third. Maybe I sign someone like Andrew Heaney cheap. because of the dependence on two young pitchers in Ryan and Ober, the Twins will need to bring in "several" arms and consider a 6-man rotation to limit the innings of Ryan and Ober. Rotation: Alcantara, Montas, (Gray/Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez), Ryan, Ober. (Depth: Dobnak, Balazovic, Winder). I love the idea of signing Knebel. he and Rogers are my Co-Closers. I trade Lewis Thorpe .8 trade value to the Cardinals for SS Paul DeJong 1.0 value (Baseball trade Values). C Garver 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS DeJong LF Austin Martin/Jose Miranda CF Buxton RF Kepler DH Sano I save the Cory Seager money (I think he resigns with the Dodgers). Keeping Donaldson still allows me to sign Knebel. I think a team constituted like this can compete for another division title and maybe even win a darn playoff game. But I still like what you put together as well.

Polanco is our MVP and very productive on a team friendly deal. I'm keeping him. I'm trading Arraez for pitching.

There are teams that are pretty locked into their positional lineup. Houston is a good example. However, the Dodgers have been very successful with players playing multiple positions: Bellinger, Trea Turner, Taylor, Kiki Hernandez--when he was a Dodger) add max Muncy to the list. It's never a BAD thing to have positional flexibility. Injuries happen. I, for some reason, have always seen Lewis as a future outfielder. Maybe he sticks at SS. But if the Twins sign Buxton to an extension, could you imagine an outfield of: Martin in LF, Buxton in CF and Lewis in RF ? That would be a VERY athletic outfield. I see Miranda at 3B, but with his ability to duplicate where Arraez plays, (and Austin Martin for that matter) I see Arraez as a valuable trade piece for pitching. I also see Kiriloff playing a LOT of 1B. But it's nice to know he's got the ability to play a corner OF spot.

The Twins have the money and the NEED. Do they have the WILL ? Robbie Ray and Marcus Stroman could be wishful thinking, although, without having to pay Berrios, they could make a run at one of them. Jon Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez are two intriguing pitchers that are mid-tier. I also like Kwang Hyun Kim (a Rich Hill type) as well as Danny Duffy. Since they really need three, those guys along with Pineda seem likely targets, although I'm pushing for Robbie Ray and 2 guys acquired via TRADE to bolster the starting rotation. Andrew Heaney remains an interesting guy. I watch him pitch and his STUFF is impressive. But then he gives up a 3-run HR and you wonder how it happened. He looked like he had the guy "just where he wanted him" and then BOOM !!! He'd be tempting "project" but the price would have to be right. The MLB Trade Rumors list was extensive. We'll all be using it this winter to see where the pieces fall.

I agree. The Twins can fit $7 million into their payroll for him. He's head and shoulders out BEST RP. But the Twins need to make the entire BP "better" by signing or trading for a "closer" to move everyone else down a peg in the BP. Rogers can close on occasion. But taking care of the 8th innings seems the best role for him. And he can always be traded at the deadline. Teams are ALWAYS looking for bullpen pieces at the deadline.

I expect AK to HIT. He's just a darn good hitter. Cream, eventually, rises to the top. It's also why I think hanging onto Kepler is wise. Max needs to figure out how to beat the shift. He still hits the ball HARD, it's just usually into the teeth of the shift. An off season of working on a new approach is needed if Max is to remain a major leaguer. He's already a talented defensive outfielder, something Larnach will never be. Larnach may be "serviceable," but he'll never be what Max is defensively. With other young outfielders coming thru the system, I'm trading Larnach for young, controllable pitching. With Trevor, I'm targeting the Marlins. Kiriloff isn't going anywhere though. He will be "decent" in the outfield and looks to be pretty "slick" at 1B. But it's Kiriloff's bat that will be a force in the Twins lineup for many years to come.

Yeah, the Dodgers are gonna bring back Scherzer, especially with the continual health issues Kershaw is having. Two years and $40 million per year is the kind of thing the Dodgers can afford. Not the Twins. We need a lefty. Ray at 4-years $100 million works for me. I'm curious what Eduardo Rodriguez would cost. But I TRADE for my #2 and #3 guys. I'd have my eye on Montas, Bassitt or Manaea from the A's and Alcantara, Max Meyer and Sixto Sanchez from the Marlins. Guys that could be involved in making the trades for them: Jeffers, Garver, Arraez, Larnach, Strotman and Canterino. Gotta give something to get something. let's go get some PITCHING !!

Oh...and sign Buxton.

As an addendum: No to Colome. Buy him out. Certainly look at Adelberto Mondesi as a trade possibility for SS. The Twins have enough realistic options to re-tool and contend in a winnable A.L. Central.

#1 really won't be the first thing addressed and because the Twins won't address it immediately that might take them out of an All Star SS caliber player. The fallback options like Chris Taylor, Jose Iglesias, Freddy Galvis could work (Taylor, may cost more than the twins are willing to give). Paul DeJong could be a trade option (Sosa has beaten him out). Gavin Lux might be available if the Dodgers bring Seager back for SS and Trea Turner plays 2B. Not sure if the Dodgers would use Lux as a "super utility" guy (it's a similar situation as Lewis, is a former #1 prospect supposed to end up a utility player ??). #2 In my opinion, Verlander and Thor pose too great a risk. I'd rather focus on Robby Ray, Danny Duffy, Marcus Stroman, Eduardo Rodriguez.. The Twins should certainly look to bring Pineda back at a reasonable salary. But with Berrios gone, they should invest the money they should have with Berrios into a new #1. You can never have too much pitching. Some of our prospect pipeline guys will work out. Some, surely won't. I want to see the Twins sign a #1 and then trade for young pitching with the Marlins and/or A's. With all the YOUNG pitchers the Twins have, they will all be on innings limits. The Twins need to fill the #1, #2 and #3 holes in the rotation at a minimum. If the moves they make work out, and some of the young pitching not named Ryan or Ober make it up to the big league roster next year, the Twins have an opportunity to trade some of that young pitching as it would become an area of strength and depth. Pitching ALWAYS gives you leverage when trading. # & #4 I trust Taylor Rogers to come back. But I'd listen on trade possibilities. If I was considering trading Rogers, I'd look long and hard at what it might take to acquire Josh Hader from the Brewers. The Brew Crew needs offense. Hader is still ELITE, but the Brewers have internal options. The Twins NEED a true closer. But they have the makings of a pretty solid bullpen. #5. I loved Nellie Cruz. His time here was productive and he's a great influence. Unfortunately, roster construction by our current FO has not been good. With Sano, Garver, Donaldson and a few others, they have adequate bats to fill the spot. It just seems to make more sense to rotate guys through than to invest in a guy like Nellie (even at a reduced cost). The money the Twins FO has to play with this off season needs to be invested in Starting Pitching, a SS and a Closer.

San Diego was a victim of the Giants winning 107 games and the Dodgers 106. The Twins do not play in a division like that. We SHOULD be able to compete and contend in the A.L. Central next year. That's why the Twins should keep both Donaldson and Sano. I trade Arraez to give Miranda a bigger role. Miranda has better power. Rocco refuses to just make Arraez the leadoff hitter, so I'm trading Arraez for pitching. I'm targeting the A's and I'm looking for Montas, Bassit, Manaea, Kaprillian etc... Miranda can fill the void of Arraez leaving in a trade. The Twins could go BIG and look for Montas, or look for a couple arms like Bassit and Kaprillian. The Twins need starting pitchers, more than they need Arraez in the lineup. With all the young arms the Twins have, guys will be on innings limits. Our roster this past season was "uneven." This off season the FO needs to correct that.

I am in the "Keep" Donaldson camp. He's "worth" far more to the Twins than what he would bring in a trade. And despite my ongoing desire to trade Sano, as a "negative" value (like Donaldson) he too is worth more to the Twins than what we would ever get in a trade. Guys like Arraez and Jeffers are the guys I'm leveraging (and a couple minor league arms) to improve the Twins major league level pitching. The Twins really don't have to "shed payroll" in trades to improve the team. The FO "plan" should have been to pay Buxton, pay Berrios etc... all along. Now, with Berrios "gone" the FO has even more payroll flexibility to work with. Miranda will get his chances. But keeping Donaldson will allow the Twins to ease Miranda into the lineup. In fact, trading Arraez to improve our SP will allow Miranda more opportunities than selling Donaldson off for cheap. Once the twins are approaching next season's trade deadline we will see where this team is at. But every effort should be made this off season to COMPETE for the division crown in 2022.

One other name I've thrown out there and forgot to mention is Paul DeJong of the Cardinals. He's effectively been beaten out by Sosa. DeJong is a very good glove who hits with power as a SS. He's too much an all or nothing slugger in some ways and health has been an issue (like Mondesi) but if the Twins can't swing big for Mondesi DeJong wouldn't be a bad fallback. Trading Charley Barnes for him straight up seems to work on BTV's. Not sure what DeJong's salary is, but he's a decent fallback option.