TopGunn#22

Versatility is the premium value nowadays. Balazovic AND Canterino (finally healthy) pitch today. I'll have to pay attention to the minor league scores to see how Wichita and Cedar Rapids do today.

The SS position will be the biggest decision the Twins FO makes in the off season, because it will have a domino effect on many other moves. Let's say they spend BIG and go for a Story or Baez. Infield "D" would be solid and the offense would pick up another bat (although with all the K's, is Baez really nothing more than a slightly better hitting version of Sano? Probably). And throwing THAT kind of money at one position negates the ability to do anything meaningful with the rest of the roster (does anyone want to do Happ/Shoemaker AGAIN??). If Gordon had ANY chance to be a SS for the Twins he'd be playing it NOW. Let's put a pin in that balloon. Guys like Lewis are "hoped" for but I've always seen him as an Outfielder and as has been pointed out, he really hasn't played for 2-years. His BEST hope is to somehow be a September call-up next year. That's his BEST Hope. I'm reading Martin is viewed more as an Outfielder, and I get the sense more as a 2B-Man than SS. Wander Javier has squandered any future as a Twins SS. So that leaves us with a kind of "status-quo" with Polanco being the best option. If there was no realistic option for 2B I'd just say "leave Polanco at 2B." I like what I've seen from him there. But Arraez belongs in the lineup and at the top of the order EVERY DAY (please Rocco, pull your head out of your...whatever...and put him there). As always, the key to Arraez is health, but his bat and on-base skills plus his ability to work pitchers means he needs to play. So, there is one obvious, affordable choice at SS that could play for 1-2 years, give us good "D" and a better than you think bat and that is Jose Iglesias. If there REALLY is a possibility Lewis could play SS then Iglesias is the guy to target, for a 2-3 year contract. If you're planning for now AND the future, Iglesias holds down Short for 1-2 years and finishes his last year as an IF utility guy. He has "value" but a reasonable contract could be fit in to the Twins budget for 2-3 years. The Angels don't need him. Fletcher or an upgrade could fill SS for them. If you sign Iglesias to a reasonable contract the Twins have THAT headache taken care off. Then they can focus on how they would like to attack their SP and BP needs in the short term (2022-2023) and how they can integrate the myriad of young arms they've got moving up in the system.

Matt Braun...I love your assessments. However, Rocco would have to smart enough, or willing to hit Arraez leadoff CONSISTENTLY and then also smart enough (or willing) to see Martin as the perfect #2. I'm fully on board with that. I just don't think Rocco has "gotten there" yet, and may never do so.

LOVE the comments and the debate is legit. My goodness we've acquired some interesting talent and had some prospects (Miranda) just "shoulder" their way to near the top of the list. I don't like to do this, because it will be perceived as "lazy" but I'm glad I'm commenting right after Doc Bauer. I agree with every point he made. I want to see Miranda up with the big club soon. Certainly by 9/1 or Labor Day. Play him at 3B and 2B and get him plenty of AB's. I want to see what he can do. Promote Ryan along the same timeline. Either start him, or give him the 8th inning. I want to see what he can do as well. I love Canterino's stuff, but he's not coming up, but Balazovic could/should get a start or three in September. Some of these guys that have missed a lot of time this season, I'd love to get some Winter Ball innings in if it's feasible. Duran, Canterino, even Balazovic. 40-man roster spots are going to be precious. We still have a winter-off season to get Buxton signed and determine whether we can compete next year. Guys like Thorpe/Smeltzer really do not factor in to any future plan.

The Twins FO, at least at first blush, did a great job at the trade deadline. They got legit prospects for Berrios and Cruz and to have been able to deal Happ for Gant, a major league pitcher who should certainly factor into our mix for BP or even starting rotation in 2022 is beyond amazing. However, as is always the case (even in Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz trades) it usually takes a little time for the seller of the "major league talent" and Cruz and Berrios were the best we had, to show a return. Lewis and Martin could be studs to build around in the future along with Kiriloff. But the challenge for the Twins FO this winter will be what they can do, and what their realistic expectations are for 2022 and 2023. This has been a "magic" baseball season for the White Sox. Just like 2019 was for us. Will they cash in with a World Series Championship or fall short like we did ?? Baseball seasons tend to be very different from year to year. Who expected the Red Sox to be any good this year after their 2020 showing. Are we really as far behind the White Sox as we appear to be? Quite possibly. They've had a tremendous year without Eloy Jim and Robert for virtually the entire year. What is our FO's assessment of this current Twins team ?? No doubt, we have re-stocked our farm system. But some of these "promising" guys are going to have to start making meaningful contributions...SOON. How will the FO re-tool for next year to build a bridge from 2022 to 2023 ? I'm very interested to see how it plays out. I thought being a little more aggressive in 2020 and this off-season would have pushed us over the top. I really thought a closer like Rosenthal or Yates would have been a strategic and excellent addition. Both have missed the entire season. Shows what I know. But I still love to follow and voice my opinion.

I said 95 or more because as badly as the FO and Rocco have bungled things this year we're due to hit a Grand Slam on all FA signings, Buxton's health and Sano cutting strikeouts down to 88...right ??

There certainly WILL be FA SP's available. The Twins need to shell out some serious money to sign someone to head the rotation. Thor, Gausman, Rodon would all be tremendous options. Would the White Sox just let us steal Rodon ? Probably not, but we should be serious bidders. After the Berrios trade there are two more solid prospect arms to consider with all the other In-House candidates. But I agree with an earlier post about the need to have a "true" closer. I've mentioned it often in my own postings. I'm not sure if Rocco believes in having ONE guy (it's been clear Rogers has the best stuff, but Rocco won't commit to him). So I'd prioritize a guy like Rosenthal or Yates (if the medicals check out) and make Rogers my 8th inning guy and occasional closer.

Wow ! I'm late to the party. I missed all this when it was first put together. Tremendous work. Now that trades have been made and we're seeing how various players are performing when they come up (would really like to get a couple looks at Ryan) this is an insightful look at what the 40-man could look like and whether we would have a spot to pick up a player (ala Johan Santana). A couple players I've been very hopeful for have been Wander Javier and Brent Rooker. Alas, it appears Rooker will never be anything close to Will Clark/Raffy Palmiero (other SEC Triple Crown Winners) and Wander Javier's bat just doesn't seem to be coming around. Those are two spots I'm willing to open up to other players. It will be interesting to follow this thread to see how things unfold.

I was kind of hoping they could get him to play some Winter ball, just to get a little game action. I guess I was overly optimistic. I'm still not sure he's our SS of the future or our eventual replacement for Buxton if the FO bungles resigning him. But with him and Austin Martin they have a couple guys with high potential.

I see the universal DH coming next year. But, while realignment has always been a stimulating topic they've fixed most of the dumb stuff from long ago (like the Braves in the NL West). Just like the NFL didn't see the need to put Kansas City and St. Louis in the "same" division, I think MLB can maintain the NL & AL in the current divisions. I don't see any "glaring" mistakes of where a team is currently situated. But franchise "movement" (will the A's move to Vegas? Is Tampa Bay, despite a good team still struggling with attendance?) will determine if there needs to be any tweaking.

I'm not sure sure what it would take for the Twins to sign someone like Carlos Rodon, and I'm sure the White Sox would eventually out-bid us to make sure we wouldn't steal him, but Rodon has already put together a season THIS YEAR that surpasses anything Berrios has done. What Jose has going for him is durability (this is the first time Rodon has been healthy this late into a season). The fact is, Berrios is gone. The Twins, if they HOPE to be competitive must find a top of the rotation replacement. This offseason!! We got 2 excellent prospects for Jose, but the Pohlad's have to realize that following this year's disappointing season, they will lose large chunks of their fan base if this team stinks again next year. I look at 2022 as a make or break season for the current FO as well as Rocco. If they have another season like THIS ONE they will/should all be replaced.

I was 7 years old when the Twins played the Dodgers in the 1965 World Series. I have to agree with Ashbury, baseball cards on the back of cereal boxes contributed as did baseball cards in general. Trading and debating who was better took up HOURS of rainy days we couldn't play outside. It started with the neighborhood, big kids (12-13 years old) playing sandlot baseball with even us "little kids" (6-7 years old). I took to the game pretty well and really started to enjoy it and I became interested in learning about the history. My elementary school had a BUNCH of books by a guy named Milton Shapiro. The Jackie Robinson story, Duke Snider, Willie Mays etc...) I was a Twins fan "first" (I lived and died with each at bat Tony Oliva had) but I fell in love with the tragic Brooklyn Dodgers. (I know...a kid in Rochester Minnesota enamored with a team from Brooklyn NY). I read ALL these books, memorized stats on the back of baseball cards and then suddenly here are the Twins playing in the World Series against the DODGERS! Just before the World Series started, my Dad (who sold TV ads for the NBC station in Rochester, brings home a COLOR TV ! All the neighborhood kids crowded into our small living room to watch the games on our color TV. It's game #1 and the Dodgers best pitcher, Sandy Koufax isn't pitching. I ask my Mom why? She tells me he's Jewish and it's Yom Kippur, the holiest day of their religion. I was a Catholic. I was amazed that this baseball player would do this. I thought to myself, "How could I EVER do this?? It's the World Series, he's the BEST. His team needs him. But his faith came first. I became a HUGE Koufax fan from that moment going forward. The Twins won that game and then beat Koufax in game #2. I thought we had it in the bag. Then in Game #7 Koufax is brilliant and the Twins lose. I'm disappointed, but I remember from all of Shapiro's books how often the Dodgers lost to the Yankees and the disappointment they suffered each season. I'm 7 years old, I feel bad for the Twins, but good for Koufax and the Dodgers. And I fully expect the Twins will be back next year and will win it. Well, I had to wait until 1987 but it was worth it. People say the game is too slow, and it was very disappointing to see baseball "go woke" and move the All Star game but there I was last night, watching the Twins win in extra innings (with no interest in watching the Olympics) because I love baseball. My son and two daughters each played baseball and softball. I coached them until they got to High School and I loved watching them play. They enjoyed the sport as well. I'm not sure if any of the Grandkids will play, but they're dabbling in it with T-Ball and the like. I'll just have to see. If they play, I would love it. If not, I'll support them in whatever sports/activities they choose, because it's their choice. But I will always LOVE baseball.

I think this was a good article primarily because it generates a LOT of comments and interesting opinions (and isn't that what the goal of this website should be?) Buxton---You can't trade him. His "value" on MLB Trade Values is lower than Kepler's !!! You just can't sell that low. The Twins need to step up and make a reasonable contract offer to Buck with incentives for games played that will compensate him fairly. If Buxton plays he WILL produce. Donaldson--He's better off staying here unless somebody overwhelms you with an offer. Which I don't think is going to happen. With Cruz gone it opens up the opportunity to play him at DH more often and keeps a pretty good bat in our lineup. SANO---How could he NOT be initially mentioned ?? He's a rally killer who will never be what he hoped us to be. I'd GIVE him away if I could so I could use his $10 million or so on a couple of GOOD bullpen pieces or a Pineda-like SP. Taylor Rogers--Being injured killed the big return the Twins could have gotten for him. If the Twins bring in a REAL closer this off season (Rosenthal, Yates etc...) I like Rogers as my 8th inning guy who can close on occasion. Again, unless I'm overwhelmed with a trade I hang onto him. Kepler---Max just frustrates me. He should be better, but he's not. His approach at the plate is baffling. His value (according to MLB trade Values) is 30.4. If we got equal value for him, I'd deal him. Arraez---I like Arraez. he should be in the lineup every day and our leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, since Rocco won't bat him leadoff he's a constant source of frustration. He also has the highest value on MLB trade Values and would bring back a TON. I could see packaging him for someone like Arizona's Ketel Marte who would make an excellent leadoff hitter, and a guy versatile enough to play 2B, CF, corner OF and maybe some 3B. Plus he's got more "pop" than Arraez. The Twins still have big problems with the way their roster is constructed and they need to determine if next year is a throw away year or if they truly want to compete. But they need to be ACTIVE this off season and they need to be smart.

You've listed 5 excellent candidates. I'm least impressed with Stroman but the other 4 intrigue me. There is risk with each one of them. Thor needs to be healthy. Gausman needs to prove 2021 wasn't a fluke. Ray needs to prove he's finally achieved the command of his stuff to sustain his success and E-Rod is better than his season this year. One thing is CERTAIN. The Twins MUST sign one of these guys to head the rotation. As always, competition will be fierce, but they cannot afford to be left without one of these guys to have any chance to be competitive next year. They need one of these guys, Maeda, probably an affordable resigning of Pineda going 1-2-3. And then they need someone like Dobnak to bounce back at #4 and one of their rookie pitchers (Balazovic, Ober, Ryan, etc...) to hold down #5. They can use the money they would have been paying Berrios in future years to justify a splash.

Abrams would certainly be at the top of any list, but I want to see the Twins add young, Major league ready pitching---Like Weathers. He's 21 years old and he's having a good season. Gore is the kind of lottery ticket that the Twins should also be willing to go after. In my above trade scenario, you could make it a blockbuster by including Abrams and subtracting Clevinger and the Twins adding in Kepler and Rogers and possibly taking back a contract like Will Myers. I'm not sure how it all adds up, but remember, the Padres have Kim, who is talented and who backs up Tatis. Now, with the acquisition of Frazier, Croenworth will probably be moved around a little more. Abrams COULD be a guy they would now consider in a package.

This is really one of the most difficult contracts/negotiations I've EVER seen in sports. And as many have said, it's hard to have a strong opinion when so little is known about what Buxton is asking for. That said, he's NOT getting traded at the deadline because: He's still hurt. Nobody is sure when he's actually going to be ready to play. If the Twins cannot sign him, he will either be traded this winter (when his value is still waaay to low) or at the deadline next year as a rental. MLB Trade Values has Buxton valued at 20.5. To put that into perspective, a guy who was playing at a level equal to Mike Trout is valued less as an asset than the following Twins: Berrios 42.9, Kepler 30.4 and Arraez 56.1 !!! (just to name a few). The Twins simply won't get value for Buxton until he builds it back up. Buxton KNOWS he's got to get back on the field, play well and STAY healthy. But for any contract extension to work there need to be escalators and incentives that make sense. We haven't been told ANY of that. If Buxton comes back and tears it up and finishes the season without further injury his value will appreciate (tremendously). If not, (injuries continue to slow him) 7 years and 80 million may look better. Honestly, I can't understand why BOTH the Twins and Buxton wouldn't be looking at 3-years, 40 million guaranteed, with yearly incentives to push the deal to as much as $54 million (avg. value $18 million per year). It allows the Twins to retain Buck for 3-more years at a level that shouldn't destroy the franchise and it allows Buxton the opportunity to put two good injury free seasons together (gotta figure there would be one clunker in there) thus making him a possible 3-year $35 million per year kind of player. Buxton's inability to stay healthy AT ALL has permanently damaged his ability to get a 10-year $300 contract. It just AIN'T gonna happen. But the Twins can't expect him to sign a SEVEN year deal for $10-$12 million per year either. And for all his speed, with his desire to hit for power (almost exclusively) and Rocco's inability to just turn Buxton loose on the basepaths (injury fears? Rocco sits on his A$$ and wiats for 3-run HR's) his speed offensively is not something the Twins capitalize on. His speed defensively is undeniable. But all these nagging injuries (especially the hip flexor) make me wonder when he will eventually lose a step (or two).

Excellent timing Matthew, to bring up the Padres at this point of the teams the twins could trade with. The padres and Dodgers are two teams that I believe are PRIME trading partners for the Twins. Now that Nellie Cruz has been shipped to the Rays for two promising AAA pitchers who will BOTH factor into the Twins plans next season (and one of both possibly yet THIS season) it's time to look at a potential Twins--Padres BLOCKBUSTER. The Padres have their backs to the wall. Like the White Sox in the A.L. the Padres were the trendy off season pick to win the N.L. But they are slipping further and further behind the Dodgers (AND THE GIANTS) in the N.L. West. Playoffs are still very likely but they need to make an impact move for their rotation. Here's the deal, based on MLB Trade Values: Padres Get: Berrios RHP 40.80 and Enlow RHP 4.10 Twins Get: Ryan Weathers LHP (SP) 19.40 (21 years old). Mackenzie Gore LHP (SP) 17.50 The Twins have needed LH Starting Pitching since Johan Santana. This gives them TWO. Anderson Espinoza 1.6 RHP (23 years old) J. Lange 1.7 RHP (19 years old) MIKE CLEVINGER RHP (SP) 6.5 (30 years old) Padres get a durable, talented SP in Berrios for the remainder of this season and all of next year. Plus, a young pitcher in Enlow to put in their pipeline and replace some of what was sent to the Twins. The Twins get 2 young LH Starting pitchers, one of whom goes into the starting rotation next year (and for the remainder of this year) in Weathers and Mackenzie Gore, a LH Starting Pitcher with tremendous potential but who needs some fixing and refining. The padres just can't wait on him to figure it out, they need to win NOW. This is kind of like when the Tigers traded John Smoltz to the Braves for Doyle Alexander. Alexander went 10-1 for the Tigers and helped them win the AL East in 1987. It was a good trade for the Tigers at that time. Smoltz went on to a Hall of Fame Career, but who expected he would be THAT good. It's the nature of trades. Plus, the twins get a couple of other young arms in Lange and Espinoza who will have no immediate impact on the Padres. PLUS, the Twins take back Mike Clevinger, a guy we know all too well from his days with the Indians...err...Guardians. This is a gamble the twins can afford to take. Clevinger is 30-years old and once again, the Padres can't WAIT for him to get healthy. They need the PRIZE of the SP market in Berrios...NOW, so Clevinger is thrown in. The Twins MIGHT get a guy who is a part of the starting rotation in 2022. They might get a guy who can't get healthy. But again. this is a gamble the twins should be willing to take. So now look at pitching options the Twins have for 2022. Maeda, Weathers, Gore, Ryan, Strotman, Balazovic, Clevinger, Dobnak, and maybe Pineda. That's a LOT better than what we went into 2021 with and there's youth and great potential.

This is a good and timely article Cody. Whoever we trade, now or this winter, and whoever we get back, ALL of this has to be considered when trading, DFA'ing, and guys we pick up that we're taking a flyer on (Jose De Leon maybe??). Position players vs pitchers...ALL of this in building a roster next year. I'm all for bringing a bunch of guys up after the trade deadline to see how they do at the major league level. The more information the Twins have on the guys they have NOW or acquire in the future will help guide those decisions. I've not been wanting to trade Buxton or Berrios but we have to have a pretty good idea if they'll sign long term. Right now, Buxton's "value" on MLB Trade values is only about 25. Kepler's is 30.4. That means Buxton's value is waaaay down. I'm not trading him until winter, if at all. Once he's back in the lineup I'm sure he'll build SOME of that value back. But his value will continue to be depressed until he puts up a great season with 150 games played. We've gotta keep him. Berrios on the other hand is valued at 40.8. You can get a LOT for that kind of value. His posture seems to be FA and the biggest bucket of cash he can get. If that's the case, I'm seriously looking to move him to a SP needy team that is desperate to make the playoffs and make NOISE in the playoffs. That kind of team is the Padres and Dodgers. I'm going to look at a potential trade in the "San Diego as a trade partner" article. The 40 man roster will be a source of serious debate within the Twins organization this winter, and all of us will be right in the thick of it.

This seems like a good opportunity to take a chance and see what new surroundings, new coaching etc...could do for De Leon. These are the type of innocuous moves that if they work out help a team succeed.

Don't forget, in addition to Sano and Rooker, the Twins have Sabato coming as well.

Interesting take Mike. One small change: I would include Garver as someone I wouldn't trade, but if we have Steve Garvey to play 1B I'd hang on to that guy ! I actually like the look of the pitching staff you've laid out for next year, but there's something missing: If we trade Berrios we need to include some kind of guess as to who replaces him in the deal coming back. Thor would be a FA acquisition, not somebody we would get back in a deal for Jose. I believe that for the Twins to be "competitive" next year their pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Both SP's and RP's. Let's assume we sign Thor to a FA contract. He's coming back from TJ so this next season is quite a gamble to see how he does. Still, it's worth the gamble. We retain Maeda and possibly Pineda (it remains to be seen WHAT we could get in a Pineda deal) and MLB Trade Values puts him at -.70 for a value. We're better off keeping him. Balazovic will certainly be a strong possibility and Ryan REALLY intrigues me. But what could we get for Berrios ? If we traded him to the pitching desperate Padres we could see a return of LHP Ryan Weathers, who at 21 years old has impressed me in two separate games I watched him pitch (he's been on the IL lately but appears to be ready to start on 7/30 for the Padres vs. the Rockies) and once top pitching prospect LHP Mackenzie Gore. Berrios has a value of 40.8. Weathers is 19.4 and Gore 17.5 (36.9 total). So you can see that the Padres might even need to include something else to even things out. Personally, I'd take this deal as is. The Twins save not having to pay Berrios next season and in the future. And they have Weathers on MLB minimums for several season as well as Gore. THAT frees up money to be spent on a true closer like Rosenthal or Yates for next season as well as looking at possibly bringing Cruz back. In my GM world there is no way I'm continuing with Sano. I trade him now before the deadline or more likely this winter. I'm done with him. I look to add a 4th outfielder who can play all three positions and hit a little. He's my insurance for Buxton going down. I realize you just simply can't replace Buck when he's hurt, but you can't just fall off a cliff without him either. So now here's what I have to choose from for starting pitching: Thor, Weathers, Gore, Maeda, Ryan, Balazovic, maybe Pineda and Dobnak. That's tremendous depth. I should also include Strotman who we just acquired in the Cruz trade with Tampa Bay. He's at AAA and is very close to MLB ready. If I add a real closer (Rosenthal, Yates, ??) and retain Rogers and Duffey with Alcala and possibly someone like Edwar Colina next season I have a pen that could work. The Twins lineup needs to be done with rally killers like Sano and needs a consistent bat like Cruz. If we can't get Nellie to come back, then I would look to add a good bat. Someone like Nick Castellanos. He could play some OF, DH and maybe he or Garver could play some 1B. But the Twins would need to do SOMETHING to replace the excellence and consistency of Cruz, and with Castellanos a FA I think his bat would do quite well batting 3rd or cleanup. I could see going one more year with Polanco at SS and Arraez at 2B so I can gauge what we have with Lewis. It's not the best up the middle "D" but if both Polanco and Arraez HIT like their capable we could get by. If we don't trade Berrios to the Padres for that package, the pitching hurting Dodgers are interesting. LA just won their first World Series since 1988 in a 60-game season. The pressure is on to repeat. They have Bauer in trouble, Kershaw on the IL and are stumbling and bumbling. No one does LESS with more than Dodgers skipper Dave Roberts. The Dodgers are loaded with prospects. You could trade them Berrios for Dustin May (a great young pitcher out for the season with TJ) and have your choice of several other intriguing Dodgers prospects. The Dodgers need pitching NOW. Maybe despite the fact they are always madly in love with their prospects they will feel the pressure to move some of those prospects because their rotation is in tatters and their BP has blown 3 games in row. Berrios and Taylor Rogers could bring back a TON. We have about a week for all this delicious trade speculation before the deadline and then all winter as well. Can the Twins FO navigate this to their advantage or do they crash the good ship Twins on the rocks, sending everyone into a raging sea of despair?? We'll just have to wait to find out.

I feel your pain tony&rodney. I'll be pulling for the Rays to get back to the World Series now, and I'll be hoping (after Sano stinks the rest of this season) that the Twins find a way to bring Nellie back. I just doubt it will happen. I do think Ryan was a good get in the trade. Possibly as a starter. Possibly as a Joe Nathan type of RP.

I Love Nellie Cruz ! Best of luck Nellie. Win a World Series this year and sign back with the Twins THIS winter !!

The Yankees have a number of guys I'd take a chance on. I'd start with Peraza and add from there. Gil, Medina, Otto are all interesting. I'm still intrigued by Garcia. Even guys like Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar who at one time showed a lot of promise would be interesting as throw ins. Frazier to take Kepler's place and Andujar as a RH bat that can play LF & 3B.

I could get on board with swapping Hassel for Gore. To compete going forward the Twins MUST pitch better. Gore is worth taking the risk you could get him to throw strikes consistently.