TopGunn#22

I think Robles is worth the gamble for $2 million. All of the incentives are for Games Finished. Hello Taylor Rogers. Are you paying attention ??

Frustrating as a Twins fan to see all this activity and nothing much yet from the Twins. It LOOKS like the Padres got a LOT of talent for none of their BEST prospects. On the surface, they're the clear winners. But they've just unloaded a LOT of depth from their farm system. One draft isn't going to replace it all. If the object is to win a World Series the Padres are doing everything possible. I like Paxton as a target (we need a LH in the rotation) but he's always had injury issues. And I actually like Sugano. With Maeda here, we could be a good fit for him.

I'm interested in this, but i need to have an idea how much better Semien is at SS than Polanco defensively. I KNOW Andrelton Simmons is superior, how much better is Semien than Polanco. Jorge's future with the twins or any other team that acquires him as their SS for 2021 is either at 2B or as a "super utility" with an above average bat. But with the exception of Donaldson, the Twins are distinctly "below average" on defense in the infield. This needs to improve.

I think your priorities are right Tony&Rodney. But if we have to choose between Hernandez and Profar it's clear to me that Hernandez is the much better fit. Tom Kelly always had a philosophy that he wanted his bench players to be able to play defense. Hernandez is head and shoulders better than Profar and he's very strong in areas we would need him most: CF, SS & 2B. Hernandez also has better power and an abundance of post season experience. I'd rather trade for Ketel Marte and have a "regular" player with the ability to play CF, 2B, SS & 3B (and I'll bet he could play a corner outfield as well). But Hernandez is clearly their best bet for "Super Utility." That said, I'd like to see a better defensive SS and either move Polanco to 2B and Arraez to super utility (or trade Arraez---he's in HIGH demand for good reason). OR, trade Polanco. With a $4.33 million dollar salary for 2021 and an affordable contract going forward, Polanco would have trade interest as well.

O.K. Ash, I downloaded baseballtradevalues.com and here's what I came up with. Boy, you weren't kidding about that Castillo/Castellanos trade. Castillo would require A LOT. By the way, I must correct: It was NOT Rosenthal who mentioned the Reds possibly moving Castillo or Gray, possibly with Castellanos as a salary to take back. Maybe it was Skol North with Doogie, maybe I saw it somewhere else. Suffice it to say that Castillo's value is enormus. Reds Get: Dobnak, Gordon, Smeltzer. Twins Get: Gray, Castellanos, Amir Garrett and Lorenzen. You could do the deal just Dobnak and Gorden for Gray, Castellanos and Garrett if you want. Negative: Twins take on Castellanos contract and probably say goodbye to Cruz. Positive: Add a solid rotation piece in Gray who we would have for a couple of years and add a solid bat like Castellanos. Deepen the BP with a LH (Garrett) and a RH Lorenzen who help the Twins not have to depend so much on young, relatively unproven arms. Not sure how much salary we take back. We send out only $1.8 million or so, which is why the Reds do this. We could get German Marquez for Sano. But only if we included Kiriloff and Lewis. Not happening. Reality check complete for me.

No offense taken Ash, this is very helpful. I'll look into the baseballtradevalues.com site but I can't disagree with your assessment of Sano. It's why I've been so strong in pushing for a trade. I think our lineup would miss the occasional 3-run bomb, but not the strikeouts and not the 3-pitch, rally killer strikeouts. I see a team like Colorado having interest because they have no "real" 1B guy on their roster right now and Sano's power potential in Colorado could be intriguing to them. The Rosenthal stuff came up in the Athletic (which I don't get either) and was mentioned earlier in the Reds thread about being willing to look at dealing Castillo and Gray. MERRY CHRISTMAS !!

Ash, help me out here then. I'm going off what was speculated by Rosenthal. What would it take to make a trade for Castillo & Castellanos with the Reds ? And would Sano for Marquez work ? Or what would it take to pry Marquez away from the Rockies ? I'm looking for some guidance because I don't have those tools, but I'd like to be "realistic" in what I'm suggesting.

I also agree with the above comment. Lewis is key in many respects. Where will be end up ? CF & SS is where our current talented players have suffered thru injury issues. The idea that Lewis can break in as a "super utility" guy is interesting because the Twins can see him at a variety of positions both in the infield and the outfield while also seeing how he fares with the bat. He could flop. He could shine. He could show that he is better at CF than SS or vice-versa. Whatever develops the hope is he will eventually force himself into the starting lineup and solve a SS or CF problem and help the Twins decide what to do with Buxton and Polanco in a year or two. Guys like Celestino, Maciel, and even guys like Urbina and Rodriguez also provide potential upside and options down the line.

Here's my make believe trade scenario and how the Twins roster would shake out: Trade: Thorpe/Dobnak, Enlow, Rortvedt & Gordon for Castillo & Castellanos Trade: Sano for German Marquez Roster: C GARVER 2.00 C JEFFERS .600 1B KIRILOFF .600 2B ARRAEZ .600 3B DONALDSON 21.00 SS POLANCO 4.33 OF KEPLER 6/50 OF BUXTON 5.10 OF CASTELLANOS 13.00 DH CRUZ 14.00 UT VILLAR 6.00 OF ROOKER .600 OF CAVE .600 SP MAEDA 8.15 SP CASTILLO 4.00 SP BERRIOS 6.10 SP MARQUEZ 4.00 SP PINEDA 10.00 RP B. HAND 7.00 RP T. ROGERS 6.00 RP DUFFERY 2.20 RP ALCALA .600 RP CLIPPARD 3.00 RP SMELTZER .600 RP THEILBAR .650 RP LAW/COLINA .600 TOTAL PAYROLL $122.43 MILLION. KEYS: Stack a pitching staff that might be the best the Twins have ever had. Move Sano's $11.00 million to strengthen other areas and make the lineup better. Add a consistent bat in Castellanos while still bringing back Cruz for one-year plus an option. Build a DEEP bullpen with a proven closer in Hand at the end but with guys like Rogers and Clippard who could close if needed. I think Duffey could also close if needed and I think Alcala will be pretty GOOD. Colina's stuff intrigues me. What is his ceiling? Add a UT guy in Villar who can play SS in a pinch and who has SPEED. I have not traded Lewis, Larnach, Rooker, Balazovic or Dhuran in this scenario. I would be willing to move guys like Celestino and Sabato if I had too. I'm still tremendously interested in acquiring Ketel Marte but would look to deal for him at the deadline or before. Cruz is a Wildcard. I could bring him back like in the above scenario or put Kiriloff/Castellanos/Larnach/Rooker at LF/1B/DH and go without him, possibly using the $14 million saved on other areas. I'm guessing on the salaries for Castellanos, Castillo and Marquez but I wanted to go high just in case.

Doc, even making a deal like that wouldn't necessarily preclude bringing back Cruz for one-year and an option depending on how much the Twins are willing to carry for a payroll this year. That's what intrigues me so much about a Castillo & Castellanos trade. A starting rotation of Maeda, Castillo, Berrios and Pineda would be awfully GOOD. Castellanos gives Rocco a certain amount of position flexibility (LF, RF, 1B, DH). He's not very exceptional at any of them but he's a consistent bat with Doubles/Homers power. And he won't "K" 200 times like Sano. And if you trade Sano and his $11 million it frees up some cash to get either a Hendricks to anchor the BP or a couple of arms to lengthen it out. And what if you added Marquez or Gray from Colorado to the starting staff? It's a very interesting scenario that actually has some smoke to it.

The teams that are willing to stick their necks out a little bit and not hide in their basements will be the winners of this off season. If the Twins committ to spending $125-$140 million on payroll they should be able to sign and/or trade for some nice pieces.

I think they should. He's a proven closer. That would leave the 7th-8th innings for Rogers and Duffey. And watch Alcala continue to impress. When Hand needs a night off, let Rogers and Duffey close depending on the matchup. I wouldn't mind seeing Alcala given some opportunities as well. Signing Hand gives the Twins a very talented and deep BP.

C GARVER 1B KIRILOFF 2B ARRAEZ 3B DONALDSON SS POLANCO LF K. MARTE CF BUXTON RF KEPLER DH CASTELLANOS SP MAEDA, CASTILLO, BERRIOS, MARQUEZ, PENEDA BP B. HAND, T. ROGERS, DUFFEY, ALCALA, THEILBAR, THORPE, D. LAW, COLINA BENCH ROOKER, CAVE, JEFFERS, SUPER-UTILITY GUY (VILLAR??) If I could swing a trade for Ketel Marte I'd start him in LF and he's basically my insurance for Buxton, Arraez, Polanco etc... Dobnak and Rortvedt (maybe Gordon too) for Ketel Marte.

I disagree Brandon, I've been banging the drum for the Twins to bring Cruz back all off-season. BUT... If the Twins could swing a trade for Castillo and Castellanos that makes it not VITAL they bring Cruz back. Castillo in our rotation with Maeda, Berrios and Pineda would be tremendous. Castellanos is a SOLID bat. Not as powerful as Sano, but much more consistent. He could play LF but also possibly see some time at 1B (he IS a former 3B-man) as well as DH. This certainly would free the Twins to unload Sano. Between Kiriloff, Castellanos, Rooker and Garver 1B is covered. To fill out the pitching staff how about Sano for German Marquez. Castillo and Castellanos for Dobnak, Sabato, Rortvedt and Gordon. If that's not enough, I'd be willing to go higher.

The speculation that the Rockies or Cleveland would wait until the trade deadline doesn't seem right. Each team would get LESS for their player at the deadline. I see Lindor being moved for sure. He's the better player, but within the division it's not likely the Twins have a chance. Plus with teams like the Dodgers and Yankees sniffing around Lindor it makes sense he would want free agency after the season. I still maintain Story would be a tremendous upgrade at SS despite those who've disagreed that he can't hit away from Coors. But the only way ANYBODY trades for either of these two guys is with some serious discussions of signing them to a 3-5 year contract once the trade is announced. Teams just can't give up any kind of significant package for one year. That's why the Semien or Didi steam seems a little more likely. It only costs the Twins $$ and there's certainty for however long you sign them. And I agree with other comments that if I'm going to part with prospects, I'd just as soon do it for affordable and controllable starting pitching---Like Blake Snell or someone similar.

Obviously the BEST plan is one with "diversity." Can't go ALL Pitching or ALL Hitting They need balance. That said here's my plan with a couple of trades: Sano, Garver, Larnach and Enlow for Trevor Story and German Marquez. Arraez and Dobnak for Ketel Marte (possibly swap Sabato for Dobnak). Sign Puig 2.00 Million Sign Brad Hand or Trevor Rosenthal for $7 Million Sign Alex Wood for $7 million Resign Nelson Cruz for $14 Million Sign Alex Avila for $1.00 Twins Roster C Jeffers .600 C Avila 1.00 1B Kiriloff .600 2B Ketel Marte 6.00 3B Donaldson 21.00 SS Trevor Story 18.00 OF Max Kepler 6.50 OF Buxton 5.10 OF Puig 2.00 DH N. Cruz 14.00 OF Rooker .600 OF Cave or Wade .600 $73.30 Million SP Maeda 8.15 SP Berrios 6.10 SP Pineda 10.00 SP Marques 6.00 SP Alex Wood 7.00 RP B. Hand or Rosenthal 7.00 RP T. Rogers 6.00 RP Duffey 2.2 RP Alcala .600 RP Theilbar .650 RP D. Law RP Stashek or Colina .600 SP/RP Smeltzer or Thorpe .600 $55.50 Million Total Payroll: $128.8 Million. I could have come in right at $125 with Tijuan Walker instead of Alex Wood, but we need a LHP in our rotation. I don't know how realistic my trades are, but listening to Zulgag and Mackey discussing a Story trade it seems like I'm pretty much there. Twins could move on to Lewis at SS in 2022 if the don't sign Story long term. But I'd say the heck with that---Story 3 to 5 years $20 million a year. Lewis takes over in CF if we move on from Buxton or he settles in at 3B when Donaldson has to move to 1B and Kiriloff takes over in LF. Marte is CF insurance for Buxton and several other positions. Polanco is super utility who plays a lot and can fill in at SS if needed. 1. Marte 2B 2. Donaldson 3B 3. Cruz DH 4. Story SS 5. Kepler RF 6. Puig LF 7. Kiriloff 1B 8. Jeffers C 9. Buxton CF Polanco slots in just about anywhere. You could also play Marte full time in LF and Polanco at 2B (but Marte is a pretty good 2B-man). Put Polanco at the #6 spot instead of Puig in that scenario. This team is built to win in 2021 and at some point Balazovic and Dhuran join the pitching staff and Lewis joins September 2021 or 2022 for sure.

In another thread there was speculation that trading for someone like Trevor Story or signing Semian could be something the Twins are planning. I do believe the FO would like to see better "D" at Short. Story and Semian provide that. That kind of move would entail hashing out what to do with Polanco and Arraez. BOTH are above average bats that can play middle infield. Arraez can also play some 3B and some LF. Polanco can play SS & 2B. Can he play 3B? LF? The Dodgers don't have just ONE guy that can play multiple positions they have SEVERAL. Kiki Hernandez is a FA. Chris Taylor is still a Dodger. My point is, L.A. has all sorts of Swiss Army Knife types. Why can't we ? I've been pining for us to acquire Ketel Marte because in addition to being a really good hitter, he's also able to play 2B, CF & SS. But if the Twins acquired Story they could employ Polanco and Arraez however Rocco wants. There are a LOT of options for the twins FO. Teams that are willing to spend a little, could improve their team a LOT. One final thought: I want the Twins to sign Nellie Cruz. Badly. But if they swung a deal to get Story there is juice in that lineup that could mitigate the loss of Cruz. But if you somehow had Story, Cruz AND Donaldson in that lineup ?? You would never miss Rosario, Sano or Garver who would have to go to make this scenario happen.

I like where you're going with this TonyO&RodneyCline. It's going to take a LOT to get Story, but I don't think any team makes a move for him unless they would have "conversations" around signing him for 3-5 years. I'm not worried about the Coors effect at all. DJ & Larry Walker hit just fine outside of Coors. The Rockies are not contending this year or the next. But they still need to give people a reason to watch their games, whether in person or at home on TV. Their catching is abysmal. They have no 1B-man. Sano, Garver, Larnach and Enlow for Story and Marquez. The Rox can absorb Sano's $11 million and their fans will marvel at his Bombs. I hate to give up Larnach, but yah gotta give a little to get a little. Larnach will be a player Colorado can build around. Garver gives them the power hitting catcher they've never had. And Enlow could be a key rotation piece. The Twins get a SS they can build the team around. A Gold Glove/Silver Slugger. Story would be their BEST player. Marquez is 25 years old and would be a rotation mainstay for years. He'd be pretty good AWAY from Coors and would be insurance if they decide to move away from Berrios. I don't want the Twins to "move" Arraez. Rocco doesn't "run" with his team much. Arraez gets on base at a .400 clip. Put him at the top of the order and watch him score 100 runs for years. But if Polanco plays 2B does Arraez become an often used "utility" guy? able to play 2B, 3B & LF ?

I agree with you guys about Arraez. Not only will he be a .300 hitter, but he draws walks. His OBP means he should hit at the top of the lineup.

3B is certainly not a position of strength in the system. I just think putting Lewis at 3B stifles his athletic ability. We're talking about a guy that they say compares to Buxton in CF ability. Wander Javier is a guy I just don't want to give up on in any way yet. But if he puts it together he's much better at SS than Polanco. Sano is a 3B darkhorse because you could have kiriloff or Rooker at 1B. And honestly, while Polanco doesn't really have the arm, he could very well end up playing a lot of 3B if the Twins go get a SS and if Donaldson has "issues." This is why I've mentioned going out and getting a guy like Ketel Marte. The D-Backs aren't contending this year or next. Marte can play 2B, CF, and some SS and 3B. He's a GOOD hitter who woyuld look great hitting #2 behind Arraez. I would part with some prospects for Marte. He would fill a LOT of holes.

It's Polanco for the short term (and yes, he's just got to stay healthy). It could be Lewis but I've just got a CF vibe on him. But I'd rather Lewis NOT end up in CF if we already have Kiriloff, Larnach, Kepler etc... I also do not want to give up on Wander Javier but this is his make or break season. He either stays healthy and shows us something or he's history.

It sure does seem like Bauer is that ONE guy that would splash like a cannonball. I'm of the mind that if the Twins are EVER going to make a big pitching move like this, now is the time. Kiriloff, Larnach, Rooker, Jeffers, Arraez, Lewis, Balazovic, Dhuran---really cheap. Kepler, Polanco, Garver, Buxton and Sano are relatively affordable. Maeda is a bargain. They are set up to have a number of cheap to very affordable contracts for quite a while. If they stretched the payroll just a bit, they could have Bauer. And they could still go get someone like Brad Hand to close. (Hendricks would be my top choice but probably not happening with Bauer). Otherwise, Paxton & Hendricks.

I don't see Cruz ever being THAT bad. I think you gotta pay him a decent value and guarantee it. But the option year should be a mutual option to give both the Twins and Nellie the flexibility.

I'm all for resigning Cruz. He's our BEST hitter. But one year with an option is as far as I'd go at this stage of his career. If the Twins decide to go with the kids and a DH rotation here's what I want to see: A trade for Ketel Marte and sign the kid long-term. Liam Hendricks as our closer. Paxton as a welcome LHP in our rotation. Cruz is our BEST hitter. But balancing when that stops and all the other holes on our roster means there are no 2-year $28-$30 million dollar contracts coming Nellie's way. I've said this before too: Teams who are willing to spend just a little bit more can take a BIG step forward for 2021 and beyond.

I thought I had read somewhere that Marquez and/or Gray could be had. The Rockies are not going to be contenders anytime soon. They have McMahan at 1B but he's also their 2B. Murphy is gone. Power plays in Coors. That's why I have mentioned Sano to the Rockies on occasion. They could use him. To get Marquez or Gray Colorado may also want a young pitching prospect. Maybe Enlow or Canterino. I'd love to include one of them and get Brendan Rogers back as well, but I think Colorado wants to keep him around to take over for Story when he's gone. Rogers could be our IF utility guy but that ain't happening. How about Sano, Garver, Edwar Colina and Canterino for Story & Marquez/Gray ??