TopGunn#22

I agree with what ashbury said in response to my comment. BTV is not the "be all and end all" but it's at least a point I can start when imagining a trade. Even as fervent fans there is SO MUCH we have no clue about. But of course as fans we want to imagine a trade or two that would help our hometown team. I especially agree with his take on Donaldson's value but I also can absolutely see the logic as to why that site could assign him a negative trade value. Doc, I am convinced that I traded a Hank Aaron for a Tony Oliva to an older kid in my neighborhood when I was probably 7 or 8 years old. Tony-O was my favorite and in my history-altering memory, I'm convinced I traded the Aaron where he's holding the bat cross-handed (making me convinced the stats on the back of his card MUST be fake) !! Oh, the memories !!

Mike, I'm probably just 2-3 years younger than you. I remember a LOT of what you're saying and I agree with all of it. I work in media, and 25-years ago, media started changing from local family ownership of the radio and/or TV station to "Corporate" ownership. The ownership "style" began evolving from a company you could possibly be with for 40 years to "efficiencies." That meant productive, long time employees were being replaced by younger, cheaper employees. Or, in the case of radio, the long time DJ you grew up with and called into the radio station to ask if he or she would play a specific song, was replaced by ONE announcer voice-tracking the entire day, or a morning show that originated not from the hometown studio, but from New York, or Indianapolis. It's not a "better" business model in terms of product provided, but it's more "efficient." That's how I feel about pitchers who are asked to give maximum effort on every pitch and must be rescued from the mound if they fly to close to the burning inferno of 100 pitches. Heck, nowadays it's more like 80 pitches. You just don't see a PITCHER like Spahn any more. One who doesn't have a blazing fastball and incredible "spin rates" but is a guy who has good stuff, a plan and who knows how to PITCH (especially out of a bases loaded one out jam in the 3rd or 4th inning). You keep on rambling Mike !!

I also voted "sort of" because even though the White Sox F.O. clobbered ours in having a detailed plan and going out and executing it, the "team" just didn't play to their expected (not unreasonable) levels. Buxton flashing but hurt again. Kepler and Sano major disappointments. Simmons hitting at a level I could have supplied myself (this is not a good thing). Maeda struggling after a Cy Young Runner-up finish and then getting hurt. It has been my hope that this was all just an aberration and that we're closer to the 2019-2020 division champion teams. But there is no Berrios or Maeda at the top of our rotation. We have Ryan and Ober emerging and a host of young arms bursting with potential but no veteran mainstays to provide confidence. I still think signing Rodon or Story (and maybe Big Mike) and trading for an established SP like Montas, Bassitt or Manaea could go a long way to helping the Twins be right in the thick of things in the A.L. Central. But the White Sox are clearly the best team right now and in my opinion the Tigers are emerging as a REAL threat. All that young pitching and now Spencer Torkelson and Riley Green ready to explode on the scene (and I think BOTH will compete for Rookie of the Year) makes me uncomfortable about our chances. I just HATE throwing a season away with the pipe dream "2023 will be our year!!!" crap. I expect Ryan and Ober to build a bit on what they did last year, and I expect a couple of young pitchers (Winder, Balazovic, Duran ??) to flash like Ryan and Ober did in 2021. The Twins just need two Vets at the top of their rotation to have a realistic chance to hang with Chicago and Detroit. If they're the right SP's, we'll hang around and it could be an interesting season. If not, we're 4th place at best and probably in last place. At which point Rocco and the FO should be shown the door and we as fans should get the pitchforks out for the "Penurious Pohlads." Signing Buxton is NOT their "Get Out of Jail Free" card to me.

I think you nailed it Nash. And combining Kiriloff and Sano into one was shrewd. They are linked to each other for a number of reasons. I think people are "fairly" comfortable about what Joe Ryan will provide. But Ober MUST not falter. And it doesn't matter if the Twins bring in some vet SP's thru trade or FA to bolster the roster or not. Ober is being counted on heavily and then need him to continue to progress. And I like that you saved Lewis for last. He could be Buxton-esque in many ways, or never clear the hurdle of "health" first so he can let his talent flow. These last 3 years for him have not helped his situation at all. Twins fans still have high hopes.

While I would agree, none of this has been verified, it is TRUE that several Boras clients sit on the Players negotiating committee. It is not unreasonable nor illogical to wonder how much "juice" those players/clients have in influencing the players stance, or even what information the rank and file are receiving. And to those who point out that it's mainly high profile/big money players on the committee BINGO ! Great point. How much do they REALLY care about the minor leaguer, the guy just inside and just outside the 40 man roster. I wonder about that too.

I love the site. It's always fun to "dream" up a trade or two that would benefit the Twins or whoever your favorite team is, and the "values" assigned each player take a lot of factors into consideration. Otherwise, you're doing nothing more than trading baseball cards with other kids in your neighborhood, where the "big kids" take advantage of the "little kids" by proposing a Johnny Klippsten (because he's a Twin and the card looks cool) for Mickey Mantle (or in a more subtle move, Al Kaline). The challenge is proposing something where not only the "values" come close, but the trade benefits BOTH teams. And it's always O.K. to agree to disagree. I have posted several proposed trades on the site and a few have involved an Arraez centered package that brings back Frankie Montas. There's a guy named "Grover" who always downvotes my trade (he's an A's fan, or at least I THINK he is) because he doesn't see the A's needing Arraez. I usually counter with pointing out that the A's only have Tony Kemp at 2B and he's a converted outfielder and if they trade Chapman, they could use Arraez at 3B in addition to DH. But I respect his criticism because he's probably more vested in what the A's would get back. I did plenty of downvoting and commenting when people proposed trades for Buxton that I deemed unworthy. But it's a great site that helps give you a sense of why player "X" is valued more than player "Y" even though "X" may be an accepted "Star" in the league. Or why some players, like Donaldson or Sano would actually carry a "negative" trade value.

Well, 9 of 12 is speaking of Walter Johnson (I know you know this DJL44). This is what makes it interesting in how you frame this question. "The Big Train" is one of the greatest pitchers in baseball history, not just of this franchise. But I thought it was framed that for THIS exercise, we would only consider Minnesota Twins players from 1961 to present. Otherwise, Johnson is up there and Joe Mauer probably isn't. This is very much like considering a "Dodgers" Mount Rushmore. Do you separate Brooklyn from L.A. ? If you do, Things get MUCH tougher for their Mt. Rushmore. Or a Giants Mt. Rushmore between New York & San Francisco. What makes the Twins question so tough is that the became the Twins and the Senators had another iteration as an expansion team. At least the Dodgers and Giants remained the Dodgers and Giants.

I'm just so sick of the players and owners right now I don't care if they ban shifts or not. I'm just sick of the whole bunch of them.

I mentally wrote down who my 4 were before I read the piece. Tony O is my favorite Twin of all time, but Killebrew, Carew, Puckett and Mauer are the four.

Everybody knows my thoughts on this topic as I've suggested trading Arraez frequently. I love to watch his AB's but I'm firmly in the camp that he's certainly replaceable. It would take a "Package" of players with Arraez the headliner to secure Frankie Montas from the A's. Castillo from the Reds would cost even more. If some are repulsed by the idea of putting a package together for Arraez in a deal for pitching, then using Arraez alone should get you either Bassitt or Manaea and a little something more from Oakland. The Marlins need HITTERS. The N.L. now has the DH. They are overflowing with young pitchers. The Twins could offer Arraez to Miami and look at guys like Max Meyer, Sixto Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo as possibilities. Bottom Line: Arraez is replaceable. The Twins have an acute need for Starting Pitching. I believe Miranda is READY and I think he'll be BETTER than Arraez. I deal Arraez as much for pitching as to get Miranda up here and in the lineup. He's got nothing more to prove at St. Paul.

The reason why you do a trade like this is to compete in 2022 and BEYOND. The strategic reason you do a trade like this is you need stability in your starting rotation. Ryan and Ober are 2nd year guys. Everyone else with any upside is a rookie. Even if you piggyback 8 SP's each going 3-4 innings you will have some rocky outings that put an incredible strain on your starting staff & bullpen. You don't make this trade thinking only of 2022. You make it to retain Montas and build through your young SP's while protecting their arms/innings/pitches as much as you can throughout the stresses of a 162 game regular season. The only time your focus should be short, is Game #7 of the World Series.

Cody, thank you for stimulating the discussion with an excellent "scenario." I'm late to comment as I was at Mass this morning and had some errands to run afterward. But being late gives me a chance to say while I respect your viewpoint, I'm on board with Dr. Gast, tony&rodney and Mike8791. I have always stated that that we should be gearing up to contend in 2022. We were back to back division winners in 2019 and the shortened 2020. We handed the division last year to the White Sox when our front office completely failed and the Sox FO was stellar. Good for the White Sox. If our "dynamic duo" wants to remain employed they can't let the current pitching staff remain the status quo. The trade you put forward is very fair according to Baseball Trade Values, and since I manage a TV station sales team (and am not employed by a MLB front office) I use that as my baseline to see if I'm realistic or insane. The only guy in your trade I would feel some unease about is Duran. I love Arraez. But with Miranda, Martin and Lewis we really need to move him for pitching. He's just superfluous going forward. A trade for Montas is needed not just for 2022 but for the seasons to come. As I was reading the other comments I was thinking "why couldn't we acquire Montas and then either sign Story for SS or Rodon to go WITH Montas ?? Others subsequently made those points. I could see myself bargaining with the A's to NOT include Duran (I see him as our future closer) by including Sabato/Wallner Rooker or Dobnak. Getting Montas without giving up Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, or SWR is a WIN ! I fervently want Canterino to be a stud SP for the Twins, but I could also live with him as our future closer if we HAD to include Duran in the deal. So what about Rodon to go WITH Montas ?? I was driving in the car on Friday and heard a couple guys talking about Rodon on XM Radio. One guy said something i hadn't ever heard before about Rodon. Seems until he had Tommy-John surgery, Rodon had never worked out. Never lifted any weights. But because he had to rehab he was "forced to." He reported to spring training in the best shape of his life and proceeded to have a tremendous year. Had he not hurt his arm or gone thru a dead arm period, he was the best pitcher in the A.L. last year. He was Koufax-esque !! That puts me in a different mind set regarding if I would go after him. If we traded for Montas in the deal you proposed, and I had to choose between signing Story or Rodon, I'd probably go with Story to plug that HUGE hole at SS. But if I was Jim Pohlad, I do that Montas deal, and sign BOTH Story and Rodon. (or just Rodon and trade for Mondesi or DeJong). I'd expect my manager and pitching coach to want to baby every arm with the names Ryan, Ober, Balazoivic, Winder, Canterino, and SWRichardson attached to it. I'd see how 2022 plays out. (remember, we don't need to win 106 games like the Dodgers last year to finish 2nd!!!). And after 2022, I'd start the whole evaluation process over again: How's our lineup? Buxton, Polanco, Kiriloff, Story getting it done ? Is it time to move on from Sano ? How are Miranda, Martin and Lewis shaping up as well as Larnach/Celestino ? What about our catchers ? And finally, what did Montas & Rodon show us? And key to all of this: Where are we at with ALL THOSE YOUNG PITCHERS ??? Who got hurt ? Who disappointed ? Who FLASHED ?? And once again, the entire process starts up again. But no, I will never be happy with the determination that we have to punt 2022 and that 2022 should be a 90-100 loss season.

I agree ! very cool Brock ! Yet another reason for twins fans (and baseball fans in general) to visit this site. I clicked on the Austin Martin profile and yet again, it fired me up. He certainly does need to start at St. Paul and I wouldn't play him at SS at all. If the consensus is that he won't end up there I play him in CF and LF and have him take grounders at 3B and 2B to stay sharp. This also further reinforces my desire to trade Arraez for pitching, start the season with Nick Gordon as the utility player and if Martin lights it up in AAA bring him up when he's ready to play LF primarily, but other positions if needed. It sounds like this kid is just a BASEBALL player. He could be a Gold Glove LF'er (ala Alex Gordon) or a Chris Taylor type Swiss Army Knife. I think i'll be checking this out all spring and summer.

This is a great topic ! My brief thoughts (because many have already weighed in with thoughts that echo mine). 1. Nothing needs to be done NOW. But as soon as the lock out ends there will be a flurry of activity so discussions are being had that will/should determine what moves the FO will need to make. Because they will need to make them QUICKLY ! 2. I don't see what Miranda has left to prove at St. Paul. The Twins have no business playing "service time" games with him. Would any of us prefer to have Rooker or Gordon or Larnach up AHEAD of Miranda to start the season with the big club ? Miranda has positional versatility and an MLB BAT. I think the kid should have to prove he's NOT capable of hitting big league pitching before we park him in St. Paul. 3. I'd like Larnach and Celestino to get more seasoning in St. Paul. I'd trade Rooker if the right deal came about. And of course, as you all know, I'm ready and willing to deal Arraez (and package Larnach with him if needed) to add an impactful SP to head the rotation. I'm looking at Oakland and Miami to pull this off. Moving Arraez opens the door for Miranda and helps fill holes in the pitching staff. And with Austin martin not that far away, Arraez is an asset to leverage. Arraez has more trade "value" than either Bassitt or Manaea but not enough to bring back Montas. Start from there. 4. We have a LOT of young pitchers that we all feel have some good potential. Guys like Thorpe may need to be a casualty of making sure we keep the right guys.

I think his immediate future position is LF. The Twins will have to add someone at SS, whether it's Story in an uncharacteristic HUGE signing or trading for a Mondesi/DeJong kind of player. Donaldson, at least in 2022, will be the 3B. Kiriloff should be at 1B with Sano the everyday DH. Polanco at 2B means (once SS is addressed) that the infield is FULL. I could see Miranda playing a lot of LF with an occasional appearance by Arraez (unless he's traded for pitching--which he should be to make room for Miranda) along with Larnach. I just don't see what else Miranda needs to prove in St. Paul. It's not like we won the division and he's got talented players stacked ahead of him. We finished in dead last place and LF is WIDE OPEN at this point. Glove-wise, he's got to be at least marginally better than Rooker. Get him in the lineup !! Once the Twins move on from Donaldson...whenever that is, he can transition to 3B. And by that time Austin Martin should be about ready to take over in LF. SS is the gaping hole in the Twins defensive alignment and whatever positions certain players fall into will be dependent on filling that gaping hole in whatever fashion this FO chooses to fill it.

I guess I'm of the mind that if the Twins think he's the best, most talented player on the board at their spot, I take him. And I SIGN him. Then, because Boras is his agent I'd have a different plan. I put him on the major league roster very quickly. And then I ride him... HARD. I pitch him. And I pitch him. And I PITCH him. The Twins will never have him once he enters his FA years. Boras will make sure of that. So with that in mind, I get my money's worth out of him, like an NFL team rides a young running back.

Story could solve the SS issue, but I'm still of a mind to trade for someone like Mondesi, Dejong etc...that wouldn't cost much prospect wise, but would be a solid player at the position leaving Polanco at 2B. I lean more toward singing Rodon to the 1-year $25 million with a team option for 2023 and packaging Arraez for a SP like Bassitt or Manaea or a Marlins prospect like Sanchez or Meyer. I would like to see two solid guys at the top of the rotation (Rodon & Bassitt/Manaea, put Bundy #4 and slot Ryan and Ober at #3 & #5) There's always Pineda as well depending on cost. Then let Winder, Balazovic, Duran, Strotman etc...shuttle up and down and fill in. Gotta get the young guys some innings, but you've got to have some veteran pitchers to fill innings and tie everything together. I don't mind all the speculation, but without a true sense of what the team is willing to spend this year, we're all just walking down a dark hallway.

Somehow, someway, the Twins are going to need to add "at minimum" 2 SP's that they can count on giving them about 150 innings. Rodon is about the only SP worth signing at this point point (and I see a Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox having the financial wherewithal to afford a signing if things don't work out health-wise for Rodon). Maybe Danny Duffey if he's healthy. Pineda is certainly in the mix. But "someone" is going to need to be traded in order to add at least one of those SP's. I could see the Miami Marlins wanting a big bat for DH. Maybe they take a chance on Cruz. If I was the Miami GM, that's what I would do, rather than trade pitching to acquire JD or Sano. I will be very interested to see if the DH enhances the trade value of JD or Sano on BTV. But at this point, I see more value in KEEPING JD and Sano (and trading Arraez who could bring back a better SP than either JD or Sano) and rolling with the sluggers until the trade deadline. How is the season going for the Twins at that point ? What rookies and young players like Kiriloff, Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach and others are contributing ? Who looks over matched ? I guess I'm of the mind to be a little patient right now with the sluggers. Of course, I'll listen to anybody's offer...you never know.

I always love these retrospectives. I was in 6th & 7th grade when Herman Hill was being hyped as a top prospect. I was kinda fast as a youth, so I always liked the FAST guys. Hill's nickname was "Beep Beep" (like a car horn tooting for you to get out of the way). His death, happening during the winter just kind of took me by surprise and I remember how disappointed I was. I was hoping Hill would be the next Cesar Tovar. Bostock was an All-Time Fav. of mine. I was a teenager when he burst onto the scene and he was fun to watch. What a smooth LH batting stroke. It was almost like the Good Lord said, "Lyman, Twins fans will never forget you, but I've got important work for you to do up here in heaven for me." As unusual as it was to hear about Hill's death, Bostock dying during the season, visiting family while on an off day was stunning. I was in college at the time and it was just deflating. It was a lesson in how unfair and unpredictable life could be. I was just too young to remember a lot about Walter Bond, but was a big fan of his son who went on to star for the Gopher Basketball team years later.

Max is a fav of mine as well, and that's why I he's all the more frustrating for me to watch. He's simply GOT to figure out a way to use the whole field and not be so pull happy. He will probably never be anything but BAD against LH pitchers because they just go soft-away and he just grounds out to the right side. It's as predictable as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west. I think he's smart enough to figure out how to beat the "shift" but is he "willing??" The brief video seems to indicate he's "working on it" but if nothing changes from last season he will probably play no more than 3 more years in MLB.

This move, as many of the moves from our FO, does absolutely nothing for me. Maybe...MAYBE this means they are gearing up to package Arraez for pitching but who knows ? Why not just sign Greg Gagne ?? The winter is cold in Minnesota, and it just got colder.

I think Doc Bauer has this. I like the strategy of using a lot of our young arms out of the pen to get them some seasoning but I also think one more GOOD RH arm, preferably someone who could close if need be would be very helpful. The guy I WANTED was Kendall Graveman...but the White Sox snapped him up despite already having Hendricks AND Kimbrell on the roster. So much for a FO that identifies a need and a player who's a good fit and moves aggressively to address it. (Sigh).

Excellent observation tony&rodney !!! Spend a little money. Make a good trade. Starting Rotation issue SOLVED ! For 2022 and beyond. And even with this pipe dream of ours coming true, there would still be PLENTY of opportunity to get other young pitchers innings. I guess the only thing I would change in MY pipedream, is that I would spend the FA money on Trevor Story and solve my SS problem in the short and long term. Montas heading the rotation would be enough for me. I'd even overpay somewhat (Arraez and MORE) to open up more AB's and playing time for Miranda and/or Martin.

I'm kind of shocked at the Twins projected win total with basically two rookies and a guy that had an ERA of 6.6 heading the starting staff at this point. But this projection only underscores what I've been saying in many posts regarding trades or FA signings: The Twins should NEVER be in a position where they are "punting" the division. Especially after having won it in 2019 and 2020. Can the Twins make up 13 games on the White Sox with some splash trades and FA signings ?? Doubtful. But who expected the Giants to win 107 games last year ? Who expected the Twins to completely implode last year. There is always the "unknown" in sports. The White Sox weathered some injuries last year: Eloy Jim and Luis Robert. Those two are immense talents who "should" have a bigger impact in 2022. But what if there are unexpected injuries to their pitching staff ? What if some of the pitchers are inexplicably "bad" (like with the Twins last year). What if Tim Anderson misses half the season...etc... I'm all for turning loose the young Twins pitchers. It's time to get a bunch of them up and get them some seasoning. But I'd like to bring those guys along gradually and I'm expecting the Twins to seriously monitor pitch counts and innings. The Twins simply need more VETERAN arms. And of course they need a SS. I know there are ways the Twins could measure what impact in expected win total a Trevor Story signing would have, as well as a Carlos Rodon signing or trades for a Montas or Bassitt or a Marlins pitcher du jour. So I hope they're running those scenarios and figuring out what needs to be done. Honestly, I don't see the Twins signing Rodon. I see him going to the Dodgers as Trevor Bauer insurance (if Bauer even pitches this year) or the Red Sox to replace Ed-Rod or the Yankees, because any of those teams could easily absorb the financial hit if Rodon doesn't work out. But Story at SS makes sense. A trade for a good SP and signing Pineda back does as well.

I think you have the priorities right Nick. Where the Twins stand right now with their starting pitching is untenable. They need SP's ! Not just in a trade but also a FA signing of some sort. Maybe Danny Duffy ? But I've lost track of his health status. I'm not sure he'd be ready right out of the gate. As for SS: Signing Story would solve the problem if the ownership and FO cared to spend the money. I'm not expecting that. Trading for Mondesi, DeJong, Didi etc... WOULD be a plan I could get behind. NONE of those 3 would cost a great deal and we have a hole at SS you could drive a semi through. I'd certainly look to pursue something like that and hope it's on the FO's "To Do" list.