TopGunn#22

He HAS. And with that, the Twins will keep on dreaming about what he COULD be. Not sure what Cron's status is with the Rockies after the season. He's been a good 1B-man for them and he makes more consistent contact than Sano. But Miami needs offense, and what if the A's go full rebuild and trade Olson ? Sano's trade value would have to take a BIG step forward however. MLB Trade Values currently has him as a NEGATIVE asset. Trading negative assets does NOT get you something useful back. it only increases the payroll opportunities to deploy that money elsewhere.

I've seen enough to know if the decision was up to me, I'd cut the cord. Is this how low we've fallen that we should accept ALL the holes and deficiencies in a player's game just because he can hit the occasional tape measure shot? If Rooker was "Dave Kingman" that might be acceptable. But he's nowhere near that. The BEST case scenario would be including him in a trade (Miami is desperate for offense, maybe a HR here and a HR there would help seal a deal). The Twins have MUCH better options---Austin Martin, Celestino, Gordan, Arraez, NONE has the power Rooker has but they have far more strengths. Depending how the Twins view Martin and Celestino, it might be necessary to find a RH hitting corner OF'er to add either thru a FA signing or trade because in my estimation, Rooker will never measure up.

They have decent arms to work with as a whole, but there is no doubt they need to invest in a "CLOSER" and let Rogers close from time to time.

I've thought about this a bit. Nothing frustrates me more watching the Twins than Max Kepler's inability to make teams PAY for shifting on him (well, maybe Colome closing and Shoemaker/Happ). If I just go by what Baseball trade Values has for Kepler his value has fallen too much to be any kind of a factor in a trade except as a thrown in. He's worth more than that to the Twins. I just can't buy the idea that he can't play CF because the Twins don't want to "wear him down." Come on. Should the Giants have played Willie Mays in the prime of his career in RF so they wouldn't "wear him out"??? Anyway, I'm fine with Max in RF and subbing in CF when Buxton gets hurt. But someone (a NEW hitting coach??) needs to work on his approach. When the "D" is GIVING you a hit if you can just push it to the left side, you NEED to adjust. It's not like Max is Joey Gallo (38 HR's). He needs to learn to push a bunt down the 3B line and go with an outside pitch. Heck, there's nothing wrong with DOUBLES. I could certainly see a platoon with a RH hitting OF'er as well. Until we see more positive things from Kiriloff & Larnach I would hold onto Max and work on his approach. I'd be more open to trading Arraez (who Rocco refuses to hit leadoff consistently) and Arraez has much more value as a trade piece with other prospects coming up who can play 2B, 3B, LF at the same value as Arraez.

I would say Kepler is a possibility, but a radical change in his approach has to happen. Not sure if max is being "stubborn" or if the hitting coach should be replaced, but if max looks back on this season (and 2020) and doesn't realize he's playing himself out of a starting position (on the Twins or any other team) he's not as smart as i thought he was. The Twins can't trade Kepler, because his value has crash-landed. They have to hang onto him at least for 2021. Jeffers may be a bounce back candidate, but with Garver and Rortvedt, I see Jeffers being traded for pitching. To Miami. Simmons and cave will need to bounce back with some other team. They need to be released. Arraez could be a candidate, but I'm looking at options to trade him for pitching. Arizona is a possibility. Gordon and Austin Martin can be the utility players. Arraez needs to be leveraged for pitching. Garver is someone I would look to have a better season in 2021. Time is running out on Sano. Next year needs to be his .240 40 HR's 100 RBI year. Maybe it's for us. Maybe it's for Colorado.

That's what I've been thinking Max should be doing for some time. He does run well. Sacrifice some "power' to make more consistent "contact" and he'd be an improvement. If I pencil in Pineada #4, Ryan #4 and Ober #5 that means I need to sign a top flight SP as my #1 (Rodan, Ray, Stoman, Gausman) and I need to trade for my #2. (Alcantara, Montas, Bassitt). If I could somehow acquire an Eduardo Rodriguez or James Kaprillian I would have some "depth" while still having a Dobnak or Gant around. With this approach, I can see how things look for Balazovic, Winder, et al next season and if they're ready move em' up. I also still wonder, that while Sano is looking better, doesn't that also make him at least a LITTLE more viable as a trade candidate ? Not sure what Cron's status in Colorado is after this season, but if the DH comes to the N.L. I think the Rockies could be very intrigued with Sano's potential mashing at Coors. Maybe a blockbuster for Marquez ? Settle for a solid vet arm like Jon Gray ? I'd have to monitor the trade values, because I believe Sano is currently a negative but maybe Sano can get out from being underwater and a deal could be made. An outfielder like Connor Joe is interesting to consider from the Rockies as well.

Cody, I like the premise of your article and the discussion has been stimulating. I would lean toward tony&rodney, Mike Sixel and others in that while each of these 3 are interesting, I want to sign a top arm (Rodon, Robbie Ray, Gausman) and trade for ESTABLISHED SP's (Alcantara, Marquez, Lauer), perhaps a pitcher of two from the A's (Montas, Kaprillian, Bassitt). We've established that there will probably be a payroll of $125-$140 million (if the ownership and FO deems a contending team is necessary next season---and they better). We could use a complete list of FA pitchers (both SP's and RP's) as well as a nice list of speculative trade options. I'm not good at providing that. The FA's should have an estimated "cost" attached to them. (Rodon or ray 5-years $125 million). In my estimation, those two have done more this season than Berrios ever has. They would be worth the $125 million. We can speculate all we want on what it would take to acquire Sandy Alcantara and/or Frankie Montas via trade by using something like Baseball Trade Values. But with ALL the young pitchers we have striving to reach the big leagues and with "health" a factor for many of them looking to 2022, I'd rather focus on getting SP's with solid big league credentials as opposed to a "project." We have plenty of "projects." Much like needing a SS to either be the "bridge' to Lewis or a longer term fix if Lewis is OF bound, we need some solid major league pitchers who will give the FO time to sort out who will "make it" from the prospects and who probably won't. Pitching is a fungible asset (much like QB's in football). You can never have enough, and if you have an excess, you can always trade them to shore up other areas (much like the Marlins could this off-season, or the A's/Tampa Bay).

Good article Cody and good discussion. I also think the Twins keep him. While it would be nice to have a team take his salary off our hands if we accepted a middling prospect the ONLY way that would actually be favorable for the Twins would be if they invested the money saved into "top shelf" pitching (no Happ's, Shoemaker's or Colome's) or a starting SS. But he IS a solid bat in the lineup and he will be used at DH as well. It almost comes down to a Sano vs Donaldson question and as low as both players trade value is right now they are probably just better off hanging on to them. Doc Bauer is correct in pointing out that next year's trade deadline will be interesting. If the Twins are "contending" that would tell me that many of the pitching deficiencies have been addressed. it would also portend that our offense is getting what it needs out of Sano/Donaldson/Buxton and others. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know what the situation will be. But I see a Donaldson or Sano trade being much more likely at next year's trade deadline. But at this point, and depending on what our payroll limit is next year, we're better off keeping Donaldson.

I just shake my head at the "approach" many Twins hitters have at the plate. And by that, I mean they DON'T seem to have any approach. Kepler is a prime example. The Twins need a new hitting coach in the worst way. I'm not saying that will "solve everything" but it's obvious to me the current coach is not up to the task. I agree with Doc that the offense has the "potential" to be fine next year and the primary focus HAS to be on pitching. That said, a different hitting coach would help with the current talent that needs "improvement" that being Kepler, Sano (who has been better these last 4-6 weeks) Garver, Kiriloff and Larnach. I do think a steady vet SS like Iglesias or Galvis as a bridge to Lewis/Martin or whoever, is a good idea as well as a 4th OF'er who bats RH. Those are minor moves but should be "on the list." I like the fact that Torres was suggested. It makes for a good conversation. But I would vote "No" as well. We need a glove at SS and that's not Gleybor.

I agree with Doc. Why Arraez isn't hitting leadoff EVERY single game is beyond me. He sets the table. That's what leadoff guys are supposed to do. Rocco just can't seem to "get" that. Speaking of Rocco, what is this obsession with presenting Colome with save opportunity after save opportunity ? Any Twins fan who was SHOCKED Colome gave up the tying 3-run BOMB to Judge yesterday hasn't been paying attention. It was INEVITABLE. All he's done this year is give up HR's late in games. Why would we expect any other outcome. Test somebody else rather than just handing the ball to Colome. I will grant Sano his recent production. I was and still am all for trading him to somehow acquire better pitching. However, he's such a negative trade asset that we're probably better off keeping him and hitting him 7th. That kind of power near the bottom of your order can be beneficial.

Speaking of bunting...with 2 on and nobody out in the 9th inning in Friday, 9/10's game, in what scenario is the BEST thing for Buxton to do but BUNT ??? Buxton is a terrible bunter. He's supposed to be a future MVP candidate and he's BUNTING with the winning run at 2B ? I would love to know if that was HIS bright idea or if it was a signal from the bench. If it was Buxton's, his psyche is too fragile. I know he's been slumping since he came back but geez !! Would Vlad jr, Soto, Tatis jr. Mookie, Trout, Ohtani, Tim Anderson, Freddie Freeman, et all BUNT ?? But back to winning off seasons. You can set your team up to effectively compete with a strategically successful off season or you can doom them to fail if you make boneheaded moves. As I've pointed out and will do so again: The White Sox signed Hendricks, Lynn and Keuchel. Our FO countered with Colome, Shoemaker and Happ. Game. Set. Match.

He's pitching like his career depends on it. And it does. When you come out of nowhere (like Theilbar has) EVERY time you go to the mound is a chance for management to justify cutting you loose if you don't measure up. He certainly deserves a contract for next season. LH relief pitchers are a "commodity." I hope the Twins and Caleb can reach a deal that's fair.

I agree Mike. It should make the job easier for the Twins FO to go out and sign a SOLID FA SP, TRADE for a SOLID SP and then dumpster dive like they usually do for a "serviceable" vet like a Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez or a Dylan Bundy type (maybe Dobnak gets healthy). We've only seen a couple starts, but I like what I see. Except for one mistake pitch to the red hot Cubs rookie Schwindel, he's been VERY impressive. I think his slider is filthy, and as has been mentioned, his arm angle on his fastball makes his 91-94 mph SEEM faster. There sure is a fair amount of deception to his delivery. I hated to see Nellie Cruz go, but I knew he had to be traded. Not sure what we'll get with Strotman, but Ryan looks like a keeper. We will also have to wait and see how Balazovic, Duran, Canterino and Winder look this off-season and monitor their health closely.

At this point Rooker has played himself off the big league team. Every AB that cave gets is an embarrassment. Simmons has no future with this team. Just play Arraez in LF. I don't really care if St. Paul is battling for 1st place. The sole purpose of the minor leagues is to develop players and deliver them to the big leagues. GET. MIRANDA. UP.

You make a great point. The Twins have always spent for "QUANTITY" not "QUALITY." It's like Slick Rick of the Vikings always trading back to accumulate more and more 6th and 7th rounders instead of just drafting Tyler Johnson (#3 WR spot SOLVED) when he was sitting there. I GUARANTEE the Twins, if they spend the money on bringing Max Scherzer here, he will be worth every penny !! Now I get that Max would be crazy not to just stick with the Dodgers who will pay him more and give him a better chance for a World Series ring, but that's not my point. The point is, when you spend on QUALITY you lessen the risk. The wins and innings that kind of SP/RP give you add up to tremendous value for what you spent. Honestly, I don't know why this FO doesn't understand that. I thought they were brought here to replace the antiquated thinking of the Terry Ryan regime. Maybe this is a Pohlad "thing." It's hard to understand how the Twins have never figured this out.

I agree guys. Bean lays it out nicely and honestly. This does indeed make it imperative the FO goes out and gets thru FA and trade, at least TWO above average pitchers. Signing a Ray, Rodon, Gausmen, Stroman, Duffy, type and trading for an Alcantara/Means type. And finally, I'd like to see them explore ONE risky signing of either Eduardo Rodriguez or Andrew Heaney. Both E-Rod and Heaney have better "stuff" than retreads like Happ and Shoemaker. So if they're going to gamble, do so with someone that has the potential to overachieve. The fact that we're considering Winder (rightfully so) and he's considered "somewhat under the radar" shows how desperately the Twins need to build a bridge from 2022 to 2023-2024. These young arms are going to mature at wildly different paces. And with no Berrios and Maeda to count on they will have to be serious enough to "intelligently" invest in quality pitchers to benefit them in the short term as well as a little bit longer term. As the young pitchers develop and matriculate to the major league team, the Twins can hold on to, or trade the veteran arms they brought in, depending on how the individual pitchers are performing and the Twins are competing.

I will disagree with your premise while still applauding an excellent, well thought out article stating your thoughts. And we really may not be that far apart in our reasoning. There are just too many innings to fill and too many young arms on the horizon that the Twins will want to protect to some degree for the Pohlad's and FO to be content bringing in retreads like Happ & Shoemaker for 2022. Fangraphs listed some players as 2021 call ups (Cole Sands) who probably aren't going to be up THIS season but could get a "taste" in 2022. That said, here's who they say will be "UP" sometime in 2021: Balazovic, Duran, Strotman, Joe Ryan, Miranda, Rortvedt, Gordon and Colina--Out for the season). Some of those guys HAVE been up, many have not...yet. I consider the entire list "possible" for 2022. here's the guys they list as 2022 (which I consider more 2023 if not LATE in 2022): Lewis, martin, Canterino, Winder, Sands, Wallner and Enlow--who has missed all of 2021 and may need all of 2022 in the minors. Here is a partial list of FA or trade targets the Twins could pursue. Of course it always comes down to WHAT do you have to give up, but here goes: Alcantara, Manaea, Bassitt, Eduado Rodriguez, Jon Gray, Stroman, Jon Means, Carlos Rodon, Danny Duffey (Robbie Ray/ Kevin Gausman---They would be expensive but we have $2-$22 million to work with that we are NOT paying Berrios. Thor is a pipe dream and he's too risky...I don't like a guy trying to pitch when the world knows he's not allowed to throw any breaking balls. But the guys listed here are huge upgrades to Shoemaker/Happ. Add in that Colome blew game after game after game to begin the year and 2021 was sour from the outset. 2022 does not have to be a throw-away year to "see what we have" in terms of young pitching. We're going to have plenty of opportunities to see what we have because there are PLENTY of innings to go around. I just don't want the Twins to simply submit to the White Sox in 2022. Bad stuff could certainly happen to the "mighty whitey's" that would allow for a Twins resurgence. Who on TD thought the Giants would be in 1st place on 9/4? Who on TD predicted the MARINERS would have the season they're having ??

Other than signing Buxton long-term (which is the #1 task of the Twins off-season) #2 is adding 3 veteran arms to the starting rotation. A #1, #2 and #3 either thru FA signing or Trade/Trades. The 3rd most important task is to fortify the bullpen. Indeed, a closer needs to be acquired, either thru FA (which WILL be expensive---think Kimbrel) or thru a trade, a younger arm, identified as closer material that can anchor the back end (think Joe Nathan trade result). Rogers is best as an 8th inning guy and occasional closer. Tampa Bay and Oakland are two good examples of teams that are able to identify these types of guys and go out and get them at a reasonable cost. The final task is to find a "bridge" SS. A Freddy Galvis/Jose Iglesias type to play 2022 as the regular SS, allowing Polanco to remain at 2B and giving Lewis and Martin time to further develop. Also, one or two of the young arms currently being used as starters could have an impact in the BP (Duran, Colina). I just don't want the mind-set for 2022 to be one of submission to the White Sox. They could suffer some misfortune in 2022 opening the door to possibly compete. Who in the heck thought the Giants would be in 1st place in the NL West on 9/4 ?? Everything was Dodgers, Dodgers, Padres, Padres. Who on TD would have predicted the kind of season SEATTLE is having ?? We are a horribly under achieved 2021 season removed from being the 2019 & 2020 division champs. The Twins are not devoid of talent. The FO squandered the seasons of 2019 and 2020 by not making a significant IN-SEASON move to put the Twins over the top either year. 2022's off season will be the biggest test ownership and the Twins FO has had. Are they up to the challenge ??

Thank You for a good topic Nick, it's one we're all going to chew on throughout the Twins off-season. We will just have to see how committed the Pohlad's and FO is for 2022. I will say this: We were supposed to win 92 games this season and come down to the wire with the White Sox for the division title. Injuries and an epically BAD off season by our FO torpedoed that. I don't want to see the Twins just throw in the towel on 2022. What if injuries and other misfortune nail the White Sox in 2022 ? We have a LOT of young arms with talent and potential. But they won't all be coming in 2022. We need some veteran stability in the rotation to bridge the gap between those young arms being ready. We need 1-3 years. Ober and Ryan will certainly be in the mix. Pineda and Dobnak should be part of our "depth." If there's one thing that's obvious about starting pitching in the 2020's it's that you need "options." Gone are the days of 5, 6 or even 7 guys shouldering the load for an entire season. Guys like Heaney, Taillon, are #4 or #5's. Eduardo Rodriguez could be a #3 but he's always had health issues at some point in a season---he's worth a gamble, but I wouldn't be counting on 175 innings and an All Star appearance. Without Berrios they darn well SHOULD make a move where they bring in a #1 like Gausman, Rodon, Robbie Ray. SPEND THE MONEY. They need to bridge that 1-3 year gap. Where they should shore up #2 and #3 is with trades. I have proposed a trade of Kepler and Jeffers to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara on MLB Trade Values. The Twins are overpaying but Alcantara is 25 and talented. He would be a great target. The Marlins need a catcher of the future. They're already playing Jorge Alfaro in LF because his "D" is sub-par. Jeffers becomes their catcher of the future (I'm fine rolling with Garver, Rortvedt and Astudillo if it nets us Alcantara). There are other trade candidates like Means from Baltimore to consider as well. The starting staff: #1 Gausman/Ray #2 Alcantara, #3 Ober, Pindea, #4 E-Rod/Heaney #5 Ryan/Dobnak/Jax/Barnes/Balazovic/Strotman etc... If we sign a Heaney/E-Rod type for cheap that just gives the Twins another arm. Personally, I LIKE Heaney's potential. he seems to have great stuff but he always seems to leave a fat pitch up in the zone and gives up a 3-run HR. Maybe Johnson can fix that. I like E-Rod better than Heaney.

Eduardo Rodriguez is another LHP I wouldn't mind the Twins making a play for. He's youngish and has good stuff. Just need to keep him healthy. But they will need 2-3 VETERAN SP's for stability and let the young-guns fill out #4 & #5.

I get that we're not a "Big Market Team Like the Dodgers." We also aren't a "Small Market Team" either. The Twin Cities is Media market #15 in the nation. That means only 14 markets are "BIGGER" than the Twin Cities. We should not have a top 10 payroll. We also should be nowhere near the bottom 10 either. Ownership/FO had a chance to spend a little more in 2019 & 2020 when it looked like the pieces were in place to make a run (maybe win a playoff game??). But with the colossal failure of the FO in the past off-season, some serious money is going to be needed to be spent to begin a reset. The young arms will never be ready to contribute "enough" in 2022. Some will do fine, others will struggle and others won't even get a sniff of the major leagues. Some solid, proven, major league arms need to be added for the immediate future (2022) and to be a 1-3 year bridge as those young arms mature and matriculate up to the big league level. Any conversations between ownership and the front office that doesn't recognize THIS is setting the Twins up for further failure and frustrations for the fans. We've seen what the lack of a plan can do with the Afghan withdrawal. We're going to have to hear some solid "plans/strategy" coming out of our front office this off-season. Lack of a plan or confronting what the reality of the Twins current situation is not an option.

Glad to see Ryan get the call. It will make watching tonight's game interesting.

I believe no one knows FOR SURE what the Buxton situation will eventually play out to be. Therefore, I'm approaching any off-season plan with the #1 goal of signing him to an extension that satisfies both HIM and the Twins. Because to trade him now would be selling extremely low (Kepler is valued on MLB Trade Values at about 34.0 points, Buxton at about 25.0 points and something that both sides can live with is certainly attainable. This task is the first big test of the current FO and ownership. If they can't accomplish this, it will be a major FAIL. Once Buxton is securely in the fold the FO needs to devote the vast majority of resources to acquiring 3 SP's and at least one BP arm that would be our clear CLOSER to solidify the back end. At least one major expenditure for a front line starter be that Rodon, Ray, Thor, Gausman---whatever. Then either two trades or one trade and another FA acquisition to fill out #2 & #3. Ober is penciled in as the #4 and the young-guns fill in as the #5 throughout the season. A stop-gap SS like Iglesias or Galvis will not break the bank. Depending on what you'd need to give up for Sandy Alcantara (Jeffers & Kepler or Jeffers and Larnach) the Twins MUST find a way to get more out of either Kepler or Larnach, whoever remains, and Miguel Sano in 2022. It's been encouraging to see Sano the last couple of weeks. The potential is there. Can he just be a BIT more consistent. Kepler just exasperates me. He's got talent. It's just not being coached properly. I'd love to keep him, but maybe a change of scenery (Miami??) would help.

Good points Lonestar. I had traded Kepler and Jeffers for Alcantara but if it's Larnach MLB trade Values would have that being an even bigger over-pay, and result in $10-$11 million more in salary for the Twins (Kepler's salary vs. Larnach's MLB minimum). Maybe Miami throws something else in for us. But I would still make a trade like this for 3-years of Alcantara. He gives the Twins a solid major league arm while the Balazovic, Ryan, Canterino, Winder, Woods-Richardson, Duran, Strotman etc...arms sort themselves out. Heck, if Alcantara becomes what we'd hoped Berrios would be, then the Twins should sign him to another 4-5 years (he would only be 25-26 when we would be acquiring him). Your suggestions on relief pitchers names are excellent and by not going for a big name (but guys who are younger, more effective and have a higher and longer possible upside, you're on the right track. Maybe more of those names will surface as the season ends, winter comes and "Hot Stove" talk heats up. But your points are good and you're spot on regarding has-been RP names who are too expensive and too risky. Find the Andrew Chafin types. That's what Falvey and Levine are SUPPOSED to be good at.

Thank You for the great topic Cody, although I have to admit, it's frustrating to no end to have you lay out the "typical" Twins approach taken by the Pohlad regime. The fact is, if the Pohlad's don't start investing some serious money into their "baseball team" their business model is going to smell like fruit rotting on the tree. Self imposed salary levels are BS. The product they put on the field this year is embarrassing. And they can't use the excuse of "injuries.' EVERYBODY deals with injuries. As I've stated before and will continue to: When you compare how the White Sox approached this off-season to how the Twins did (the counter moves the Twins made to the moves the White Sox made) you see a team SERIOUS about contending and another that was completely UN-serious. How else do you compare the signings of Lynn, Hendricks and Keuchel to Happ, Colome and Shoemaker ??? So it's either FO complete incompetence or it's penurious ownership. Or BOTH. Neither is a satisfactory answer if the Twins don't want to play before crowds of 7,000 people at beautiful Target Field in 2022, 2023 and beyond. Jimmy Pohlad is going to have to blow up the "business model" and spend some serious cash this off season or the only money this franchise will make will come from TV revenue (and have you seen what the ratings are for Twins games lately???). The plan: Sign Carlos Rodon (28 years old) to 5-years $110 million. Could have offered that to Berrios but traded him instead. Now you have a #1 for 5-years. Other options, same money are Kevin Gausman, Thor, (or Stroman for a bit less). TRADE for pitching. MLB Trade Values has this trade as doable; Twins trade Jeffers 27.9 value and Kepler 37.5 value (Total 65.40) to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara (25 years old) 61.90 value. It's a bit of an overpay but that's the price of Starting Pitching. I'd talk to the Orioles about Jon Means (28 years old) and probably over-pay a bit there as well. So in 2022, I have a staff of Rodon, Alcantara and Means with Ober #4 and a cast of thousands to fill #5 (Maeda if/when he's healthy, Dobnak, and ALL those young arms (except any young arm I trade to Baltimore in the needed Means trade). The Twins need competent pitchers for 2022. If I have to give up a Duran, Winder, Strotman etc... to get Jon Means it must be done. We've got "arms aplenty" in the pipeline. We need some arms that can help the Twins NOW. And an earlier suggestion on another thread to sign Kimbrel to close and another arm (Rosenthal/Yates/etc...) to build the back end of the bullpen needs to happen. It will cost cold hard CASH. But that's the price the Twins need to pay to regain some stature in this market. Whether it's Pohlad or the FO, the Twins have been trying to get by on the cheap for as long as we can remember. I for one REFUSE to accept the same old same old CRAP from this franchise. So instead of the "likely" scenario laid out by Cody, I challenge the Twins from TOP to BOTTOM. EARN MY INTEREST. Because if they lose a baseball guy like ME, they've lost their FOUNDATION. And they will not recover.