TopGunn#22

Good point Major League. I'm far too traditional in my thinking, but this could very well be the way it's going. Teams don't want to pay a SP half of what Max Scherzer makes while getting 1/3 of the production. One constant in baseball is that there are always only a few "Max Scherzer's" around at any given time. The Twins got Johann Santana going in the BP. The Dodgers have bounced Urias back and forth (probably not anymore though) and have done the same with Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin etc... I think fast-tracking guys like Canterino, Strotman and even Duran to the majors in a BP role like that is a GOOD idea. After 2-years of seasoning with the big club if the results are good and the team and pitcher agree, maybe they look to build his innings up and transition him to a SP role. The fact is, even though the NEED for SP'ing is acute for the Twins right now not ALL of their highly regarded prospects will pan out as SP's. It's also why I'd move a couple of these minor league pitchers if I needed to seal a deal that would return a Montas or Sixto Sanchez or Pablo Lopez. We really have an overabundance of these SP prospects. We need to give a little to get a Montas or Lopez in return.

A trade with the Cardinals could look something like this: Twins get: DeJong (SS) 4.50 Alex Reyes (RHP) 0.0 4.50 Total Value. Cards get: Strotman (RHP) 3.9 Valimont (RHP) 1.1 5.00 Total Value.

I like adding an arm or two just because you're going to run through SO many arms, you've got to have a plethora of options. I would build from the back end first. Rogers can close. But I scratch my head as to why Rocco was using Colome and Robles instead of Rogers more last year. Were the Twins trying to depress Rogers stats to make his arb. number lower ?? That's no way to manage. I would LOVE Rich Rodriguez as a closer but I would also love to see the Twins add an arm like Alex Reyes from the Cardinals. His value is LOW and the Cards have had other arms move past him. He still has tremendous "stuff." I would like to see a trade with the Cards that brings us SS Paul DeJong and Alex Reyes. Not sure what the Cardinals would be looking for but it would not cost much to pry those two away from them. Sosa seems to have beaten DeJong out for the SS position.

Frankly, I'm interested in ALL of those Marlins pitchers. Last I had checked these were the values for the following Marlins pitchers on Baseball Trade Values: Sixto Sanchez 27.5 Max Meyer 22.2 Pablo Lopez 57.1 Jesus Luzardo 10.0 Cabrea 15.0 Hernandez 5.2. They are probably not trading Trevor Rogers, Cabrera or Hernandez. Lopez would be EXPENSIVE. Probably Kepler, Arraez AND a little something extra. One question is, would the Marlins still be interested in Jeffers despite having already acquired Stallings ?? (I like sticking with Garver and getting a Jason Castro type until Rortbedt is ready). If they were, I'd go for a package of Sixto Sanchez 27.5 and Luzardo 10.0. (37.5 total). Assets the Twins could consider moving would include: Arraez 33.3 Larnach 18.9 Kepler 23.6 Jeffers 19.2 Rooker 1.7 Sabato 3.0. The Twins could also consider a negative asset like Donaldson (minus 19.2) since the Marlins would be looking for offense (although I'm inclined to KEEP Donaldson) with the possibility of the DH coming to the N.L. The Marlins have a surplus of young pitchers and plenty of holes to fill. The Twins have a surplus at certain positions and a need for SP's. We still should be heavily considering a trade with Miami.

He's one of my All-Time favorite Twins. He was our leadoff hitter. When I played, I was the leadoff hitter. I always had a special affinity for guys who hit leadoff...Tovar, Brock, Wills, Lopes, later, Molitor, Ricky Henderson. He was just a very fun player to watch and root for. For those of us who grew up in the 60's and early 70's Pepe was a gem. Put. Him. In.

My wife and I DVR Jeopardy every day and like to play at supper time...just a way to keep the brain working and functioning. My wife was her class Valedictorian and graduated college Sum Cum Laude. I was a "B" student (I married "UP" so as to insure smart children). I always complain "where's the Baseball category"?!?!? This should be a fun episode when we get to it. Amy is indeed a buzz saw!

That Manager was Billy Martin, who gave the Twins baserunner's like Tovar and Carew the Green Light to work their magic.

Kepler is the guy best suited to fill in if need be. I'm done with Cave. I would LOVE for Lewis to be the long term solution at SS. However, he's shown that he's somewhat competent at SS, 2B, 3B, and OF. A Chris Taylor Swiss Army Knife type has proven to be EXTREMELY valuable to the Dodgers. The Twins have a couple of guys with that potential in Lewis and Austin Martin. Guys like Rodriguez and Urbina have potential, but are "several" years away. Celestino needs a little more time at St. Paul but would be the next best "immediate" option behind Kepler.

I think Larnach will eventually figure things out. To what degree as a hitter remains to be seen. His upside is Jesse Winker. His downside is our current version of Max Kepler without the defense. Speaking of Kepler, the Twins are certainly assessing what his top and bottom as a hitter will be. One thing that is clear about Max: The shift is his kryptonite. Will MLB come out with a rule requiring 3B/SS's and 1B/2B's to remain on "their side" of the infield as the pitch is being delivered and also restricting how DEEP an INF'er can play ?? These types of things are being discussed as a way to "revive" offense but will they come to pass ? There's more to Kepler's struggles than the "shift" but restricting it would instantly help him. With Larnach, the sample size is too small. But I remember how clutch he was in the College World Series for Oregon State and see him as THAT kind of hitter. With Kiriloff AND Larnach the Twins always had a certain degree of redundancy. Now that Buxton is in the fold the the long term and with Martin, Lewis, Celestino, Wallner and Rodriguez in the pipeline, Larnach is the better trade chip than Kepler. The Twins, have a LOT of young pitchers coming up in their system but with few expected to have much of an impact in 2022. I think Arraez and Larnach are the best trade chips to bring in SP's for both short and long term pitching flexibility. I would have considered Jeffers as well, primarily with Miami, but that ship has sailed. Maybe Jeffers to Milwaukee. But the Twins are going to have to be VERY active in the trade market to patch some of the gaping holes in their roster and to loosen up some of the log jams at certain positions (2B, Corner OF, 1B/DH types).

The Twins have lots of "potential" SS's but nobody who profiles as a clear cut SS (other than Palacios). I like Story as an option to spend some of the money that should be burning a hole in the FO's pocket, and I also like Rodon for that same purpose. However, I think the Twins should be considering the trade market heavily for SS and SP's. With Miranda set to replace Arraez in his role (and Gordon as well) Arraez is a great trade chip to accomplish filling some of the holes the Twins have. it's NOT that I WANT to trade Arraez. It's that he's a good ballplayer at a position or "role" that we have a high degree of redundancy who could bring the Twins back "quality" in areas where they need not only quality but "quantity" as well. The Segura idea is also interesting.

I agree that Rodon is a good fit under the current circumstances and he should certainly be heavily considered. I would offer 2-years and $40 million, possibly 3-years $51 million. But I would also be ready to make a trade for another SP. Montas would be at the top of my list. Bassitt close behind. And Pineda would be an excellent guy to have in that #3 or #4 spot. Ryan and Ober will barely top 115 IP. Rodon will probably only pitch 150 innings. More bodies are needed to piece together a rotation without completely stressing the BP day in and day out. Construct a staff thru a FA signing and trades: Rodon, Montas, Pineda, Bundy, Ryan & Ober. Have Dobnak available to fill in. Then see who is performing and earning a chance at some Big League starts in-season. Balazovic, Winder, Duran, Sands Canterino, etc... It's a LONG season. With a LOT of innings. They need more than many of us think here on TD. While I would LOVE a SS, there are other options thru a trade than Story. PITCHING, PITCHING, PITCHING. Not just for 2022 but for 2023 and 2024. Pitchers get hurt. They come up with a sore or "tender" arm. The Twins have some nice possibilities in the minors. They are just terribly THIN at the Big League level. Go get some PITCHERS !!

Castellanos appeals to me but he'll be way too expensive. Solid RH bat that would look great hitting 3rd or 4th in our lineup. How about taking a flyer at a guy like Nick Senzel ? He's got a LOT of talent but just hasn't gotten over the hump with the Reds. Another Red that is interesting to me is Jesse Winker. He has turned out to be EXACTLY what I hoped Larnach would be. Winker would make Larnach expendable. Maybe make a trade with Cincy for Sonny Gray & Winker ?

In an earlier article that also brought up the "possibility" of trading Lewis, I had mentioned (as MikeLink45 did at the outset here) that trading Lewis when his value is at it's lowest ever---much like Byron Buxton), is not wise. I still feel that way. I think the Twins, in Arraez have a GREAT trade chip for a team like Oakland. Oakland has something I very much want: Frankie Montas. Given how certain teams like the Dodgers and Yankees ALSO have SP'ing concerns it's going to make getting SP'ing on the trade market more difficult if those teams decide to "compete" for SP's. Face it, the Twins need GOOD SP's. In fact, we're desperate. If I HAD to, I'd deal Arraez AND Lewis for Montas and Bassitt, and I'd throw in Donaldson to get Chapman. Maybe I toss an arm like Winder or Canterino in as well. THAT's the only kind of scenario I give up Lewis for. A true blockbuster to set the Twins up for 2022 and beyond. If I'm giving the A's an infielder who could be a future batting champ AND a former #1 overall pick who still has tremendous potential I'm swapping the 3B-man as well. If the A's are truly considering a major rebuild, they take on Donaldson's contract for the short term and have the Twins take on Chapman's for the longer term. They give up two GOOD SP's to get a solid bat with versatility (Arraez) and as I said, a former #1 overall pick who is just 22 years old and still has tremendous potential. But otherwise, I'm very much likely to keep Lewis than to trade him.

Tony-O was my first favorite Twin and is still my first ! I think I'll be traveling to Cooperstown, NY for the July 22 induction. MikeLink, I don't include Morris in my top Twins arms because even though it was the "MOST MEMORABLE" season, I put Jim Jerry in there instead. 1969 20-game winner, 1970 A.L. Cy Young winner and several other "solid" Twins seasons. Morris belongs in a "special" category of Twins one-season wonders (and he would be far and away #1 in that category).

I will say again, that Ryan and Ober need to be considered ONE pitcher in a starting rotation. I could see each of them pitching 100-110 innings. That's 200-220 innings. They need a COUPLE of arms. I would: Think very hard during this break what my #1 priority is NOW (now that Buxton is signed). Is it a SS like Story or a SP like Rodon. That's the BIG DECISION. I might sign Pineda first (and quickly) because ONE SP won't be enough. Big Mike is a known commodity. He will pitch to an acceptable level. Spend at least one stint on the I.L. but for the most part be "steady." If I sign Rodon, I make a trade with Oakland for Frankie Montas. It would be something along the lines of Arraez, Sabato and Sands. Then my SP is: Rodon, Montas, Bundy, Pineda, Ryan, Ober. That's 6 guys and I can lean on minor league depth for spot starts and such. I also would make a smaller trade for Mondesi or DeJong to get a SS. Both should be available because there are players who have moved past them. If I decide to go with Story instead I expand the trade with Oakland by including Larnach and maybe another smaller sweetener to include Bassitt. Then the SP staff looks like this: Montas, Bassitt, Bundy, Pineda, Ryan and Ober. I have Donaldson, Story, Polanco and Kiriloff in the IF. Garver & Jeffers catching and Buxton & Kepler in the OF. I need a LF'er. Miranda, Celestino & Martin could compete for it. I could sign a vet at a bargain price instead. That team can compete with the White Sox, Tigers and anybody else. I still have PLENTY of young minor league pitchers to evaluate and elevate as needed throughout the season and I still have Lewis, Martin and other highly thought of prospects to evaluate and elevate as needed during the season if their play in the minors dictates that and/or injuries force my hand. I will keep pounding the drum on this: We were the two-time defending division champs. We had a dumpster fire last season but we still have TALENT. We CAN and SHOULD compete for the division crown in 2022 and beyond.

Nope. I agree with prouster. Baines doesn't deserve it either but if I had to choose between the two of them, I'd take Dick Allen !!!!

A lot of times, veteran catchers on the down side of their career (thinking the Jason Castro types) who are "competent" but not "good" sort of hang around until spring training begins or so, and then they latch onto a team once said team identifies a need not yet addressed. Teams ALWAYS need catchers. This is why I really wanted the Twins to use the leverage they had with Jeffers in a trade for a SP. Jeffers has his flaws, but his value is rated such that he really projects as a "catcher of the "Now" and "future" for a catching needy ballclub. The hope of trading Jeffers to Miami for a Max Meyer evaporated when the Marlins acquired Stallings from the Pirates. However, the Brewers could use a catcher. So could the Yankees. Jeffers carries a value of 19.2. Luis Severino carries an 11.4. Maybe a trade of Jeffers for Severino and Zach Britton where the Yanks pick up some of the salary would work. Someone, not long ago wrote an article about how the Twins could make trades taking on some other team's bad contracts (guys like Myers and Hosmer from the Padres). It was an interesting idea now that the Twins are left with a pile of money to spend a few worthy FA's to spend it on. Severino would be an interesting Top of the Rotation guy and Britton could be a potential closer. I think both still have excellent upside and could be key pieces in 2022. Then I sign a Jason Castro type LH hitting catcher while Rortvedt develops at AAA.

You just can't trade this kid at this time. His primary position is one the Twins need to fill. He's versatile enough to play other places should he need to. He was the #1 overall pick and all reports are that he's a high character person. His value has never been lower. This is a lot like Buxton in that Byron's value was probably never lower prior to his extension. Lewis may never pan out. But he's an asset the Twins simply must stick with because the "upside" (like Buxton) is just too great. There are other assets the Twins can trade to rebuild their pitching staff, which is something they simply MUST do, not just for 2022 but beyond.

Very Nice Andrew. I think I "get' the criteria you're using. I'm one of those old, traditional guys who just looks at the baseball card stats and determines, more by "feel" or "the eye test" what was the "best year." Or all time team. Determining it by WAR based on bang for your buck by salary makes it pretty cut and dried, so it's not something anyone can really effectively disagree with any of your selections. For example: I could maintain Killebrew in 1969 should be the 3B. Heck he won the MVP !! But Harmon was making $100,000+ that year. Koskie was probably making close to the league minimum, Or how about Nellie Cruz in 2019 for DH ?? But as awesome as his season was he was making $14-$15 million. His value to WAR just isn't competitive at $14-$15 million. This is an interesting way to evaluate. Thanks for doing the "work" and providing it.

Doc, I totally agree Kaat should also go in as a broadcaster some day. I'll tell you, Oliva was just a treat to watch hit. He was all coiled up and when his swing uncoiled it was smooth and "wicked !!" As a kid, I used to scour the box scores in my local paper each night just to see how many hits Tony-O got. I would read the ENTIRE box score. But the FIRST place my eyes would go was to: AB Runs Hits RBI Oliva RF 4 2 3 3 And then I would scan for extra base hits: Oliva 2B-2 (36) HR-1 (22) Ahhhh, the memories. Trov, great point ! I remember many years ago, looking at Oliva's stats on the back of a 1972 baseball card. It had stats that went thru his 1971 third and final batting title. His career average was .313 and in the pitching dominated era he played in, that's pretty. darn. good. Clemente, Rose, Carew, there were only a handful of guys who were better. That HAROLD BLEEPING BAINES got in before Tony-O is criminal. That Kaat won 283 games and 16...SIXTEEN Gold Gloves and had to wait this long is frustrating. But all the frustration and angst over the injustice of them not being elected while others (not as deserving in my opinion, WERE) is gone. washed away like a warm summer rain. I believe my wife and i will be driving to Cooperstown N.Y. from Rochester this coming July. Maybe I'll see Tony-O and he'll sign a picture for me that says H.O.F. 2022. What a great feeling for long time Twins Fans.

Fantastic Topic Doc Munson ! I've been considering this as well, just not in the more insightful topic you've introduced "The Salary Floor" sure to come from the new CBA. My whole approach to this Twins offseason has been to scheme ways in which they are competitive right out of the gate for 2022. In the A.L. Central, and just one year removed from having won back-to-back division titles, I don't think the FO should consider anything LESS than competing in 2022. One of the prime ways to do that is to take on bad contracts. Doing this adds players who have talent. They just don't perform to what their "cost" is. It's kind of like Kirk Cousins. He's played very well this year. Yesterday he converted a late turnover into what should have been the game winning TD drive, only to see Zimmer's defense give up the game losing points in the end (for the FOURTH time this season). Kirk is not a $40 million player, but in today's sports world this is the norm. Guys like Myers (LF) and Hosmer (1B) would fill big holes for the Twins both in the field and in the lineup but would also allow us to add a young player or two of tremendous talent/potential by taking on those contracts (Abrams, Gore, Weathers). It's the dirtiest way but also the quickest way to rebuild the talent. You could swap an Arraez or a Lewis or Martin to maximize the haul, or swap out lesser pieces but you have to be willing to take on the salary for the period of time before their contracts expire. I'm not sure how much time Myers and Hosmer have left and what the per season cost is (about $20 for each I'd imagine, Hosmer a little more, Myers a little less) but that's the price of poker. It's an interesting scenario that is waaay outside what Twins ownership has ever considered. But it SHOULD be a consideration.

Great point Doc Munson. Puk is one of those "buy low" get great production type of gambles the Twins should be actively pursuing. Ideally, Puk would be in the starting rotation. But he could also be a key BP piece as well. Maybe a change of scenery is just what he needs. I've considered players like Clint Frazier (already snapped up by the Cubs) and Miguel Andujar and other similar players as buy low/high upside signings. Andujar would give the Twins a "potentially" solid RH bat who could play a little 3B, 1B and LF. Admittedly, that conflicts with what Miranda could do. But if Andujar ever got back to hitting like his rookie year it would be a great acquisition. Maybe the league has figured him out. Maybe it's just been the nagging injuries. But guys like him and Puk and really been hampered by those nagging injuries. Maybe good health unlocks the tremendous potential each have.

I have never been to Cooperstown, but have always wanted to go. My wife has heard me say dozens of times with hope in my voice "If Tony-O ever gets elected, we have to make the drive from Minnesota to Cooperstown, N.Y. and be there for the ceremony." Well, we will probably be making the trip this July. This is so wonderful for Tony-O AND Jim Kaat to be going in together. I'm also happy for Buck O'Neill (a better ambassador for baseball there has never been, although Tony-O and Kaat are his equal) and I'm happy for Gil Hodges and his family. Tony-O was my FIRST ever favorite player in any sport. I was 6 years old when he won Rookie of the Year and 7 when the Twins played the Dodgers in the World Series. It was when I became a lifelong baseball fan and always will be. Those are magical years for a kid, and there will always be a special "magic" for Tony Oliva with me.

You might be right about them wanting to run a kid out at SS "In My La Z Boy" but I think Story and Donaldson while similar, are also much different. Both are good RH hitters. Guys you generally can count on to produce. Story plays a much more premium position (SS) than Donaldson (3B) and he plays it at an elite level. Story is a darn good SS. Plus, Donaldson has had injury concerns for virtually his entire career. Story does not. So there are similarities, but also differences. And Dr. Gast, I agree that Lewis and Martin could become super-utility types and that's what I would see from them when they first come up. But I don't think the Twins would limit them to that. Martin could very well develop into a heck of a LF'er who could play some CF to spell Buxton. Lewis could still turn into a pretty good SS while also becoming valuable as a guy who could play all around the field. Remember, Chris Taylor has played a lot of SS for the Dodgers when Seager had been hurt. Story may eventually move to 3B and Lewis become the SS after 3-4 years. The Twins may draft a kid who is a tremendous SS prospect as well. it's hard to project 3-5 years down the road. But what I'm trying to do is put the Twins in a competitive position for 2022 as well as beyond that with a Story signing and the blockbuster trade with Oakland for BOTH Montas and Bassitt. And the Twins have the assets to remake and even out their roster if they have the guts to do it.

I agree Cody. The Twins DO have money to spend. They've signed Buxton to a reasonable contract that protects both him and the team. They've done nothing to replace Berrios and the money he would/should have been making. So in my opinion, it comes down to this: Do the Twins spend on starting pitcher Carlos Rodon and assume all the risk and reward that would come from such a commitment ?? Or do they take that money and invest in Trevor Story ?? If it was up to ME, I'd sign Story and make a blockbuster trade using Arraez and Larnach to bring Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt over from Oakland. Things have come to a screeching halt with the expiration of the CBA but that's what I'd be working on. Sign Story for 5 years and $125 million. Trade Arraez, Larnach, Sabato, Cole Sands and Thorpe to the A's for Montas and Bassitt. It's a lot to give up and the Twins could lose Bassitt after the 2022 season, but they need an arm like Montas to replace Berrios at the top of our rotation and who will be under team control for a couple years. The Twins also need a quality arm like Bassitt to bridge the gap from opening day 2022 to whenever arms like Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, Winder and Woods-Richardson are ready. The ability to add an arm or two via free agency has passed in my opinion. And a pitching staff of Bundy, Ryan and Ober just isn't enough. The above proposed trade is worthy, as judged by Baseball Trade Values, but I'd even go a little higher and swap some players out and swap in a Canterino, Winder or Duran if I had to. They are all great prospects, but the Twins need a starting rotation NOW for 2022. And there would be nothing preventing the Twins from working on extensions for Montas and Bassitt as soon as we acquired them. For the short term, Montas and Bassitt are affordable. But with all the young talent coming, even if minimum salaries go UP in the new CBA the Twins could have an affordable pitching staff with guys like Montas, Bassitt, Bundy, Ryan, Ober, and possibly Pineda if he's also brought back on a reasonable deal with guys like Balazovic, Dobnak, Woods-Richardson, Duran, Canterino, Winder and eventually Petty possibly being in the mix in mid-2022 and further down the road. Story gives the Twins an All Star caliber SS to pair up the middle with Polanco and Buxton. In this scenario the Twins still have Garver, Jeffers and Rortvedt behind the plate. That's a strong up the middle defensive core and Story's bat in the middle of the lineup doesn't hurt one bit. The best FA pitching options are gone. It's time to invest that money in a long term SS like Story and build the rotation through some bold trades. Would 5-years $125 million get it done ? I don't know. But I'd sure as heck find out.