TopGunn#22

I think I'd rather go after a couple of pitchers from the A's (Montas, Bassitt, Manaea, Kaprillian) than Chapman. I think the guy to deal is Arraez. Sending him as the centerpiece of a package to Oakland could bring Bassitt AND Manaea to the Twins. Good Lord, our starting rotation is two rookies who will be on innings limits in 2022. Bassitt and manaea would be quality AND quantity. The idea that you could sell high on Miranda right now is logical. I'd rather replace Arraez with Miranda and sell high on Arraez.

I've always said, if Buxton is simply "playing" the benefit will be there for the Twins. That's why 7-years for $105 million ($15 base salary) and incentives simply for "Games Played" is a very LOGICAL strategy for the Twins. Buxton is just starting to come into realizing his talent. He really only needs "health" and the results/payoff will be there. This is not rocket science. It is easy math. I agree with what tony&rodney pointed out earlier. Baldelli is not any better as a manager than Paul Molitor was. In fact, I think Molitor was better. But Rocco was supposed to embrace "analytics" and that's what Falvey & Levine were supposed to do as well. The Pohlad's wanted a FO that was analytic driven, probably to justify capping what the payroll would be. Supposedly then, the Pohlad's could point to the "analytics" and say, "we simply can't pay (insert player X) that much money. The analytics don't allow it." Minneapolis/St. Paul is the 15th largest TV market in the nation. But the narrative we've been fed for decades is that the Twins are a "small market team." Not true. We should be middle of the pack at worst. I understand how the payroll could rise and fall within certain parameters depending on our ability to "contend." But in the A.L. Central, to not have a chance to "compete" means you've let the roster go to pot in a very bad way. Tony&Rodney is right. The ability to re-sign a major part of your team like Buxton or Berrios really isn't so much a FO decision as it is a commitment (or lack thereof) by OWNWERSHIP.

I agree, he'd be a MUCH better use of a roster spot than Cave. I'd still like to explore Adelberto Mondesi from the Royals but as was pointed out, Goodrum can fill in at seven positions and I didn't realize he was that good a gloveman at SS. It's an interesting thing to consider.

The money it would cost to sign Taylor needs to be spent on pitching. To me the best choice is Wendell. But as tony&rodney asked...what would it take to get him from Tampa ?? If they would accept Strotman even up, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Wendell may be a spare part with Javier and Brujan emerging. (and they also have Lowe).

Bettman never took an All Star game away from a city and state under false pretenses to virtue signal how "woke" he was. I'll admit, Bettman's nothing to hang your hat on, but Manfred is the WORST.

Cody, I am handing you a "hammer" because you just nailed it ! There is no realistic scenario to the Twins being competitive if Buxton is traded. There are dozens of instances where a team lost their best or a couple of their best players and actually over achieved. The best case in my mind is the post Ken Griffey Jr./Randy Johnson Mariners that won 114 games. I look back and STILL can't believe it actually happened. But these Twins are NOT those Mariners and if Buxton is traded it will be a major fail by our illustrious FO and at that point they should just tear it down and acquire young talent to compete in 2024. The problem with trading Buxton is that his value has never been lower. The Twins will get no impact players in a deal. They just won't. And trading Buxton should be the end of this FO and a new one can effect the rebuild.

I would have picked up Clint Frazier (DFA'd by the Yankess) and waved bye bye to Cave. The only possible surprise here is Vallimont. But I like keeping a guy with "electric stuff" in the hopes he figures out and you catch lightening in a bottle. He could also be the hedge on letting Colina go (which surprised me at the time). I agree with tony&rodney, it's time to make some trades. THEN we will see additional 40 man roster moves.

He's been a target of mine in several trades I've proposed on this site after working them thru on Baseball Trade Values. He is certainly a young, controllable pitcher who would look great heading the Twins rotation. I always preach "quality" over "quantity" whether it's a Vikings draft of 15 players after Spielman traded back 5 times or in the case of trades in baseball. However, I find the Twins in a difficult position. If I was building out a pitching staff and I already had Berrios & Maeda to go with Ryan and Ober, I'd be earnestly trying to put together a trade for Montas. The problem is, there is no Berrios or Maeda. We need QUANITITY" just as much as we need "QUALITY." That's what makes Chris Bassitt such an attractive target to me. He's nearly on a par with Montas but would cost a LOT less. I'm saving Jeffers and Larnach for a blockbuster with the Marlins and putting a package together headed by Arraez to get Bassitt and Manaea. Here's the trade I posted on Baseball Trade Values as TonyO6 A's Get: Arraez 33.3 Rooker 1.7 L. varland .50 = 35.5 Twins Get: Bassitt 17.0 Manaea 18.5 = 35.5 If I had to, I'd probably subtract Varland and add a little more to the deal to get both these pitchers. I acquire "QUALITY" but also "QUANITITY" as I fill TWO rotation spots. The A's don't need Jeffers (they've got one of the top, young catchers in baseball in Murphy), but the Marlins DO need Jeffers. I aim high and package Jeffers 19.2 and Larnach 18.9 with Woods-Richardson 14.5 and Urbina 4.2 (total 56.8) for Pablo Lopez (57.1). If I don't aim that high, I can lower what I'm offering and go for a Max Meyer 22.2 or Sixto Sanchez 27.5. I'm rebuilding the rotation with quality. If Balazovic, Duran, Canterino, Winder, Sands and later Petty develop I can always trade pitching from a position of strength (like the Marlins are here). PITCHING is Baseball's most sought after asset, and if used intelligently, will always bring back QUALITY.

I for one, was O.K. with the Mauer contract. He never lived up to it, but he was a hometown hero, a former MVP and it would have been a BIGGER disaster to let him get away to the Red Sox or Yankees. Bigger than letting Buxton go because Mauer PRODUCED before his big contract...consistently. Buxton has only "teased" with his tremendous ability, but cautions with his inability to stay healthy. The biggest problem in trading Buxton NOW is that despite a nice 2021 season (except for the ever present missed games due to injury) his VALUE has never been lower. The Twins aren't going to get a "transformative" talent of similar ability to Buxton back in any deal. They just aren't...UNLESS they offer to take back a stinky contract or two from whoever is trading us a prospect. But the biggest disappointment in all this is that to us fans, this isn't rocket science. Figuring out how to keep Buxton isn't really that tough. That our FO has put themselves, the team and fanbase in the current situation does not speak well of this FO. And this is coming off an off season in which they messed up every conceivable move they could have made. A trade of Buxton and the paltry expected return would pretty much foreshadow the end of the current "boy wonders" in our FO. However, The fact that Terry Ryan and Billy Smith hung on as long as they did after their well documented blunders leaves a healthy amount of doubt as to whether the Pohlad's actually care enough to make a change.

Posturing...if that's what our illustrious FO is doing then damn them to hell. This is a FO that has COMPLETLY messed up an off-season 50% of the time. (2018 & 2021). My patience with them is running out. Honestly, I don't think an AVERAGE FO could mess up a season as frequently as these guys have. They got us Cruz and Maeda, and epically failed in 2021 and again in 2018. So now we have a couple scenarios, nicely laid out by Nick, and NONE of them are something a Twins fan would be happy with. The sad truth is, if the Twins end up trading Buxton they will get nothing close to what his value could/should be. I'm losing any confidence that Falvey/Levine actually have a plan and are working their plan. At this point, they should be beyond "navigating" their strategy" and actually EXECUTING their strategy. Honestly, Jim Pohlad should be shocked and dismayed they aren't EXECUTING their strategy. How is it, that the Tigers FO identified a Gold Glove catcher and young LH starting pitcher (Barnhardt & Rodriguez) and have already "executed" signing them. How is it the Dodgers already identified a LH pitcher with great stuff (Heaney) and signed him to a bargain $8.5 million dollar contract. Front offices are presently EXECUTING their strategies. Ours, they're still "navigating" theirs. Signing Buxton SHOULD be this FO's #1 priority this off season, followed closely by signing/trading for FOUR SP's to fill out the starting rotation (because that's where our tremendous FO has left us at this point). Prom is coming up, and at this rate they will be without a date and sitting home lonely.

I would use Larnach in a separate deal with Miami for pitching and go with the Soulaire, Wallner, Enlow, Strotman deal. In fact, I think the A's would probably prefer that to a one for one. I think the Twins will need to trade for at least 3 SP's and Bassitt would be one pitcher I'd surely target. Montas would be fantastic. but the cost to get him, like a Luis Castillo would probably be too high. If the Twins were just ONE pitcher away, I'd be all for going after a Castillo or Montas. The problem is, they need FOUR SP's so they have to aim for "good' pitchers but "quantity" as well.

While I would LIKE to keep them both, it's a luxury the Twins cannot afford with two rookies the only two guys they have penciled in to their rotation next year and both likely on innings limits. Gosh, who WOULDN'T want to keep them both if we just had a starting rotation. I would rather keep Garver because he's a better hitter right now and because Jeffers is the "Catcher of the Future" that the Marlins desperately need. The Marlins have the same dilemma, who wouldn't want to keep all those talented young pitchers ?? They just simply don't have a catcher worth a darn. It's a match that SHOULD happen, and if Larnach or Kepler are involved in the deal the Twins should be able to bring back two promising arms. here's a possible trade: Twins get: Sixto Sanchez 27.5 and Max Meyer 22.2 = 49.70 Marlins get: Jeffers 19.2 Larnach 18.9 Canterino 9.6 and Strotman 3.9 = 51.60 Slight overpay for the Twins but they add two young arms with HUGE upsides who are already in or on the verge of, being Big Leaguers. The Marlins get their catcher of the future, a young corner OF'er with a potentially big bat, and Canterino and Strotman to replace the arms they lost. Look, the Twins have a BUNCH of arms with potential in their farm system, but none who will be ready to compete for a Big league spot until at least the All Star break next year. Sanchez and Meyer would step right in. Rortvedt spends about half the season in St. Paul to determine if he's ready. Sign a LH Jason Castro type to back up Garver. Yes, it's a bit of an over pay. How else do you expect to add two arms like Sanchez and Meyer ??

This was a very interesting read. Some of my "assumptions" have been shattered. I knew that Simmons was going to be an upgrade at SS. And he was as advertised even though I thought he would be "better' I kept expecting Ozzie Smith type plays nightly. Honestly, the Twins haven't had a GOOD SS day in and day out since Gagne (Guzman was good, but not nearing as consistent as Greg Gagne). If I KNEW Simmons would hit closer to the previous 4-5 years I'd abandon my Mondesi pipe dream and sign him for $3 million (that's all Simmons is worth at this point). I'm really surprised Arraez was that proficient at 3B. It makes him more valuable to the Twins and I believe more of a trade chip than I realized. Kepler and Buxton are Gold Glove caliber. Sano is a DH, plain and simple and if kept should bat 8th and DH. Polanco was "solid" at 2B. LF still remains a weak defensive position, and yes, tony&rodney you can keep on banging his drum. He's a GOOD baseball player. I just think we need so much on our pitching staff that lineup improvements will need to take a back seat. Because Jeffers appears to be a "Catcher of the Future" (more than Garver) for a trade partner like Miami (and because I think Rortvedt will be a stud defensively) I make a blockbuster trade to Miami with Jeffers in a package for one or two young pitchers and give Rortvedt a half season or less at St. Paul before I call him up (if he's earned it). Tomas Tellis can be the backup catcher until that time. Honestly, Kiriloff at 1B. Buxton and Kepler healthy and playing. An engaged and desperate to prove he can still play Simmons and Polanco at 2B is a pretty solid foundation. Throw in a healthy Donaldson (or Arraez if he's not traded) at 3B and the twins are fairly solid defensively.

Well thought out Terry. Maybe if this gets "changed' in the new CBA this would be possible. But what you've laid out makes a lot of sense. If Buxton PLAYS, He's GOOD. If he PLAYS, Pay Him.

This is VERY good and completely realistic. I agree with much of mike8791, I would not go after Wacha. But I would also not go after Cobb as well. Give me Pineda, or aim a little higher and go for Jon Gray. Love Knebel, but I think the Twins have the potential for a good BP without going for an Ottovina type. I'd rather add an arm like Yates for $1 million and invest a little more in SP'ing. Like the lineup...a LOT.

In a "normal" off season, these would be the kind of guys that may or may not help, but that typically you'd get more "Shoemaker" than you would "Odorizzi" out of them. However, THIS off season the Twins need to add FOUR SP's to effectively make Ryan & Ober the #5/#6 starters. Two quality arms like Jon Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez Or Danny Duffy) would be the top two. But Bundy & C-Mart types are certainly needed this year just to fill out the rotation and spread the innings load. I'd throw Pineda in there as our #3, roll with Bundy as #4 and use C-Mart as a swing guy (kind of like I had suggested with Vincent Velasquez and his great stuff) to throw an occasional spot start but give you 3 innings at a time out of the pen. C-Mart and Velasquez fit that profile. Good fastball, pretty good slider. But inconsistent. But the sheer VOLUME of arms the Twins need to fill out their starting rotation means a couple of solid, mid-tier guys are needed as are "lottery tickets" like Bundy, C-Mart, Velasquez etc...

I've been mentioning the problem of the Twins having only Ryan and Ober on innings limits and referring to them as a #5 "combined" or a #5/#6. I'm much more in favor of a SIX man staff that allows Ryan and Ober to have their innings limited without disrupting the entire staff. I sign Eduardo Rodriguez and Jon Gray as mid-level FA SP's. I'd swing a trade or trades to add: Bassitt and/or Manaea / a couple of young arms from the Marlins. Whatever. I don't like the mentioned "out of the box" idea. I would rather leverage what we have on the big league roster and minor leagues to get some balance. No "well managed" team should find themselves with the dearth of pitching the Twins currently have. Finally, I'd consider adding a Vince Velazquez to the staff to be a multi-inning (3 at a time?) kind of guy. They simply NEED to add SEVERAL pitchers. By choosing the correct "mid-tier' guys they can be successful. I'm realizing that paying Robbie Ray or Stroman $20-$25 million per year doesn't allow the Twins to add the DEPTH they need. They're not going to get anything out of Balazovic, Duran, Winder, etc...until at least July.

I still maintain, and will continue to maintain that the Twins CAN and SHOULD compete in the A.L. Central in 2022. The task is a tall one. We have basically two rookies in our starting rotation who will be on innings limits. This means the Twins will need to build almost an entire starting rotation. But with targeted FA signings and trades should be able to accomplish the task. The way I see it, if this front office fails to do this, we're looking at a very LONG and painful 2022 baseball season in Minnesota and the Pohlad's will lose a ton of money as 4,000-6,000 fans show up on a regular basis. We were just division champs in 2019 & 2020. The A.L. Central, while an improving division, is never going to boast one team with 107 regular season wins and another with 106. We CAN and SHOULD be able to compete. I would have a few nitpicks (I'm not very jazzed about Holland either) but on the whole, this plans at least seeks to address our major areas of need.

I was kind of hoping the Twins would go after Heaney. I thought with his stuff and age he would have been an excellent gamble if you could get him to focus on finishing hitters off and not giving up the HR's he does too often. The Dodgers certainly see something in him they think they can fix, and they move quickly and aggressively to sign him. I would like to see OUR FO be aggressive early and not wait until the end for "bargains" they they always seem to do. I agree that Minaya should be retained. I liked what I saw of him this year.

I've been kind of harping on this in multiple posts. Right now they are penciled in as our #4 & #5 starters. In reality, they are BOTH our #5. I think one projection is too optimistic and the other is too pessimistic. Reality is probably somewhere in between. This is why the twins MUST sign and/or trade for FOUR SP's and possibly consider a 6-man rotation. Ryan & Ober just will not provide enough innings and whoever could be considered a "reinforcement" (Balazovic, Duran, Winder etc...will certainly be on the same innings/pitch limits. Once we get to 2023 (a good two years removed from Covid lockdowns and the like) things may edge their way back closer to normal. But unless your name is Max Scherzer (a HORSE if there ever was one) a LOT of pitchers will be operating under various "limitations."

Overall a good plan. And at $133 your not too far off budget (and I think $140 million may be needed to correct the mistakes this FO made last year). Otto beat me to my biggest quibble with your plan: The D-Backs don't need and won't want Jeffers because they don't need a catcher. Recalibrate your plan by sending Jeffers in a package to Miami for pitching. I think the Twins should stick with Kepler because I'd rather see him "figure out" what he needs to do to improve, but trading him to the Yanks for Severino is a "swing for the fences" kind of off season move I could get excited about. LOVE the signing of Graveman. I think he could be a little more expensive but he would be a key addition to our BP. Maybe skip signing Hand for $2 million and give that money to Graveman. Nice Job !!

Arraez probably doesn't work here Mike because the reds have N.L. Rookie of the Year candidate Jonathon India at 2B and Suarez at 3B. What the reds REALLY need is a SS. But so do we. Once they move on from Castellanos and Winker they will be desperate for corner OF'ers. Larnach and Kepler could be in the mix, but the BTV of Castillo is HIGH. I could go Lewis, Canterino and Larnach, but I'd never include BOTH Lewis and Martin in the same deal. He would be our Berrios replacement and even though he would be expensive going forward, you would trade for him to KEEP him. Long term.

I have always liked Segura as a player and I like that you threw out the idea. He hits. Always. He gets on base consistently. And while he doesn't steal as many bases anymore, he runs well. He's got a little pop. 14-15 HR's is usually where he finishes each year. Why I haven't myself suggested him is that he's still set to make $15 million in 2022 and he hasn't been a SS in a couple of years. If $15 million could get us Jon Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez, I'd rather use that money to directly add pitching and consider other options for SS. If the Twins weren't so darn NEEDY for pitching I'd be all over bringing someone like Trevor Story to Minnesota. But in all honesty, the Twins need to add FOUR SP's of varying talent and cost for 2022. They just do. Ryan and Ober are really #5 and #5A in the rotation with innings limits sure to be imposed. I still like the idea of trading for Adelberto Mondesi. If the Royals would trade within the division he wouldn't break the bank. We'd need to trade minor league talent for him, but we have young enough arms coming up that something could be worked out. Mondesi is a lottery ticket, much like Byron Buxton. Health is a major concern. but I think worth the gamble. Even if I traded for Mondesi I'm having discussions about a Galvis/Iglesias type just in case Mondesi gets hurt again. Galvis/Iglesias types are good gloves to have on your bench. The other option is a trade with the Cardinals for Paul DeJong. Again, DeJong wouldn't cost much to acquire. The Cards, if they don't sign someone like Story would go with Sosa at SS. DeJong is available. Mondesi and DeJong won't have a salary anywhere near the $14.85 million Segura has, so I've got a little more juice in my wallet to rebuild our pitching staff at the end of the day. Yes, the Twins have some young pitchers in the pipeline and yes Maeda will come back. But those guys may not be ready to make any contribution until 2023. The Twins need arms NOW.

This is a good topic cjm and one we will all debate for most of the winter. One team that has a plethora of starting pitching but where the cupboard is bare for catching is Miami. They just non-tendered a catcher they traded with the Phillies for who was supposed to be their catcher of the future. In my trade scenarios I have been offering Jeffers to Miami because he has more value and we could get "more" back from the Marlins. If they preferred Garver I would spin on a dime and offer him. I think they would want Jeffers because age-wise, he's their catcher of the future. The other two teams that have pitching to trade are Oakland and the Brewers. Both have decent to good catchers so neither is a match. However, what if a team like the Yankees would be interested in Garver, and if they signed Cory Seager to play SS would agree to a multi-player deal that brought one of their young SS prospects over to the Twins ?? That would be tempting. I like your "outside the box" thinking of "considering" dealing BOTH Garver and Jeffers, because I believe in 2023 Rortvedt could be the Twins #1 catcher and finding a RH hitting vet to back him up wouldn't be difficult. While I think it's highly unlikely the Twins would trade BOTH Garver and Jeffers this off season, it really would be dependent on WHAT they would be getting back. The Twins have some payroll flexibility to add one or two FA SP's. But Ryan and Ober at the bottom of the rotation should really be considered ONE pitcher, based on innings/pitch limits that will be placed on each. That means the Twins need to sign/trade for FOUR "solid" SP's. Dobnak and Gant (if he is retained) give them depth in the rotation to be used as needed. But adding FOUR SP's is a must as far as I'm concerned.

I should probably get this so I can offer something "intelligent" instead of "wildly speculative." Noticed in the link provided by dex8425 that Gausman is listed as a $25 million per year SP but somehow we signed him for $17 million. Gotta fix that.