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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Who saw Graterol becoming an extreme ground-ball pitcher with a low (easily below league average) K-rate…who relies on an extraordinary low BABiP-against?? I never saw him as a starter...but I didn’t see this coming, either.
  2. jkcarew
    In a different thread, I said it wouldn’t be the end of the world if Kirilloff ended up being Randy Bush instead of Kent Hrbek. Slightly disappointing, maybe. But that seems to be where this is heading. Seems they’ve already determined him to be a platoon hitter, and a defensive position to call his own may be slipping away, as well.
  3. jkcarew
    I’m ok with this definition…seems reasonable… Of course, we’d need to then acknowledge that Buxton has NEVER had a successful season. Never had an OPS+ of 120 with 100 games. Played over 100 games only once (with an OPS+ of 93.) Career OPS+ of 106 and the 3-year trend has been 171, 133, 98. Also, never been anything close to healthy and/or good by the time the postseason rolled around. With a grand total of 7 more-or-less miserable plate appearances across 5 postseason series. I’d say if all this happens this year, it would be a huge, and surprising, boost to the club.
  4. jkcarew
    It’s just practice. Guys working on things with no intent on specific results regarding wins and losses. Having said that, it’s quite apparent ERod (to name one) is nowhere near ready. (In case anyone thought he might be.)
  5. jkcarew
    These games are practice. Guys working on things, etc…not a coordinated effort to achieve results in term of wins/losses. Having said that, it’s apparent ERod (for one) is nowhere near ready. (In case anyone was thinking that he might be).
  6. jkcarew
    The ridiculous power means he will get more attention and game-planning from opposing pitchers. Still, his K% is not starting from a super horrible level…31+%l. Gallo’s (for reference) was in the high 30’s at the same age, despite more mlb experience. I am optimistic on the bat. A one-step-back, then two-steps-forward type of progression wouldn’t surprise.
  7. jkcarew
    The door is wide open for AK and Alcala. Miranda will need to wait for injuries or big failures…seems to be swinging it nice in ST, though.
  8. jkcarew
    I don’t think it just HS pitchers…but HS players in general. It’s simply harder to project from the younger age and over a greater number of years. It’s harder to successfully predict the weather 5 days from now vs 2 days from now. More time for things to change and/or deviate from forecasted results. But when a HS pitcher is drafted in the 1st/2nd rounds, it’s because the upside is SO high, that it warrants the higher fail rate. It seems like Soto fits that definition. So for now, I’ll dream about him becoming one of the ones that came out ‘ok’ despite the odds being stacked against them: guys like Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, Blake Snell, Zach Greinke, Roy Halladay, CC Sabathia…
  9. jkcarew
    High ceiling, due to the immense power. Relatively low floor, as he doesn’t seem to offer much value other than the power. Some, but not much. Absolutely too early to tell. Still in the acclimation period where pitchers will make adjustments against him...and he against them, etc. The power is no joke. Probably comes down to ability to manage the K rate. We’ll see.
  10. jkcarew
    So put him on the 40-man and break camp with him so he can take a bench role from Farmer??
  11. jkcarew
    Hitting has always been about finding the sweet spot between the ‘aggressive’ approach where swinging early in the count can reduce likelihood of K, but also can lead to frequently putting ‘pitchers pitches’ into play (soft contact) resulting in muted BABiP/SLG…vs ‘patient’ approach, offer only at pitches you (think) you can drive hard for extra bases…taking the tough pitches, and increasing likelihood of getting into 2-strike counts and subsequently K’ing. We all know where that pendulum currently stands. A ton of players in the league that wouldn’t have a clue about how to execute the ‘aggressive’ approach because they’ve only hit with the one tool in the box right from little league. Maybe more data drives the pendulum more into balance. Maybe more data will drive it further out of balance.
  12. jkcarew
    The modern hitter (and Gallo fits the category) get their 2-strikes mostly by TAKING strikes, not expanding the zone. (Especially relative to earlier generations of players.) Hence the preponderance of ‘three true outcome’ guys. The mantra is to offer only at pitches you can drive out of the park. Can’t do that with a fastball tailing hard into the inside corner or a slider at the knees on the outside black, etc, etc. The conundrum is, that in many, many at-bats this results in HAVING to expand the zone with 2 strikes. That’s where we’re at. The Twins will still have their share of these guys…Julien probably the ‘best’ example.
  13. jkcarew
    Right? About a dozen. I’d say an even 20…plus or minus another half-dozen…in the next TWO years, before the club would pick up the team option in 2026. But, true to their nature, the Twins will have him cleaning dishes in the cafeteria before they’ll release him and the $5.25M he’s owed between now and then.
  14. jkcarew
    Devers as 3B depth at $30M? No doubt Red Sox nation is clamoring to replace Devers with someone like Austin Martin…still, this doesn’t seem like a Twins-type move. Besides, with our luck, if we did this…it would for sure end up being the year Lewis finally DOESN’T get hurt. And Devers doesn’t have options. So, we’d just look silly.
  15. jkcarew
    Still think you’re wasting his speed at 3B. (And don’t buy the injury risk being materially different.) But regardless of whether or when Lewis moves, 3B should be solid for at least a few years between Lewis, and/or Lee, and/or Correa.
  16. jkcarew
    Don’t mind trading the prospects. In a couple of instances turns out we got big time duds in return, though. That’s the risk. The Petty loss is the one that hurts the most…but it’s also the one that worked exactly as hoped in terms of return.
  17. jkcarew
    Never know, I guess. But fwiw, the small sample spring numbers you mention don’t really say “good”, IMO. It’s almost impossible in todays game to face 13 batters and only K one. I don’t think the BABiP-against of 100 is going to hold😉.
  18. jkcarew
    Should they? No. Would it work as suggested? No.
  19. jkcarew
    Nothing more happening for the Twins…save for catastrophic ST injury to key player. So, let’s not go there. I do think this is a very important year for Kirilloff. He needs to stay healthy and perform. He has yet to do both for anything close to a full season. If Lee is the near future at 2B, the clock is ticking on Kirilloff to grab 1B by the throat. If he doesn’t/can’t, his Twins future could start to look more Randy Bush-ish. (Not that a good team couldn’t use a Randy Bush…he’s got 2 WS rings. It just doesn’t lead to the pay day at free agency that Kirilloff probably still has in mind.)
  20. jkcarew
    Why not Polanco and prospects for the quality starter? There are reasons beyond salary to keep Julien vs Polanco.
  21. jkcarew
    It’s the same feeling as has been the trend for almost a decade, right? The club is well positioned to compete in the worse division in baseball (also usually the lowest aggregate payroll division in baseball). And not very well positioned to compete for a pennant or WS. I do think there seems to be a window for more than that starting in a year or two from now…if/when this promising wave of prospects establish themselves. But that’s also why it’s a bit frustrating that the roster is still currently jammed with so many mediocre veterans. Oh, well…in the meantime, there’s always the AL Central to keep us interested.
  22. jkcarew
    I feel like we’re lamenting the Margot deal simply because it came last. It’s the Santana deal that did the damage, IMO. Did we not already have 2 or 3 guys that could handle 1B and rotate in/out of DH? On the other hand, you pretty much HAVE to have a guy ready to play every-day mlb-caliber CF. If you’re not feeling good about who you could put out there (besides Buxton) for 70-100 games, it’s negligence to not find someone to fix that.
  23. jkcarew
    Sorry, the defensive side of it is too full of holes. The concept of one number that “says it all” is cool…unfortunately, you can’t count on the defense part of the math to render a number that isn’t distorted somewhat…or one that is even consistent year to year for the same player. I go by OPS+ and/or wRC+ for offense, and eyeballs (mostly) for defense. And in today’s game, with fewer and fewer balls put in play, the offensive side has more weight than ever in assessing the total value of the player of any position (on a relative basis). I don’t necessarily like that. But it is what it is…and more balls in play doesn’t appear to be anywhere on the horizon.
  24. jkcarew
    I’m starting to think the Twins should ALWAYS load the bases before Lewis comes up. ALWAYS. Say, runners on 1st and 3rd with two out, Lewis on deck. We get a single…runner on 1st advances to second, 3rd base coach HOLDS the runner at 3rd. Grand Slam. Could be the difference between 1 run and 4 runs. Just sayin.
  25. jkcarew
    I mean…Jax blew 7 saves last year and lost 10 games. Throws one pitch constantly…and batters were putting it into play more frequently. And Thielbar gave up 7 HR in 30 innings last year (reflected in his FIP). Why? Because the new rules require that he pitch against right-handed batters more frequently…and they demolished him. Stewart needs to stay healthy and repeat best-in-career results…and even Duran wasn’t “lights out” last year with his sudden bouts of loosing the K zone. I’m expecting an above average bullpen based on depth…especially if Alcala finally ‘arrives’. Still, the way the starting rotation is shaping up, the depth will likely be put to a pretty stiff test. Me thinks we’re getting a bit ahead of ourselves regarding the bullpen, though.
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