Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jkcarew

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    5,096

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I want prospects (if more than lottery). One hitter doesn’t guarantee anything. And the core needs to be turned over.
  2. jkcarew
    But team-wise doesn’t 0 - 18 suggest to you that teams that are clearly weaker than the playoff opponent almost never win one series…let alone two? Never once were the Twins on par with the opponent going in…way weaker…not really close, including 2019 where the substandard ALC allowed them to win 100+ games, while still somehow being 5 games under 500 against winning teams. You don’t have to be dominant, you don’t even have to be as good…but you better be within shouting distance. This club can win the division, with or without help, IMO. But, I don’t see them being within shouting distance…even with a rental or two…of any of the prospective opponents.
  3. jkcarew
    I fear there’s an implied assumption here that may not hold up for all of ‘us’. On behalf of THAT ‘us’, I’d like to say that we sincerely apologize. We didn’t realize the harmful impact we could have on the AL postseason (and…um…loved ones, or whatever). And if not for it being way too late to matter, we would do whatever we could to make it right.
  4. jkcarew
    I see a lot of “but the 87 Twins” or “but the 91 Braves”….not just in this thread, but everywhere. But, anything before the format change really isn’t analogous. Aside from the fact that you had to win one of only two divisions (more likely that you have at least one legit team to outpace)…but more importantly, you only had to win one series to get to the WS. It’s now basically twice as hard to get to the WS…and that’s if you’re NOT the underdog. For the 2023 Twins, that’d be beating two teams back-to-back that are around 10 games better than you…actually probably more adjusted for strength of schedule. (The schedules are still unbalanced, just not as much as in past). More recently, the Phillies won ‘only’ 87 games. But they played in a great division…38 games against 100-win teams in their own division. 87 was a strong number. 87 in the 2023 ALC, isn’t at all similar. Agree that the 2015 Mets are probably as good an analogy as any. A once-in-a-decade occurrence, that relied on a lot of luck in term of match-ups. But they were 43-30 in the second half…even in a relatively week division, decent momentum. So…I’d trade Gray, depending upon the get…it wouldn’t necessarily cost us this division. There’s about a zero chance that’s going to happen. So, I’ll live with keeping him and doing the QO (if he stays good/healthy). Just please don’t go nuts on rentals with anything more than lottery tickets. This is not the year. Twins should be focusing on the happy opportunity to compete for a division while simultaneously moving to a new core…or at least not further delaying that move.
  5. jkcarew
    “Still, based on track record, you can have some hope that Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Jorge Polanco will gravitate to that 120 OPS+ level,” Polanco has a 111 career OPS+. Buxton 106. They’re 29 and apparently not fully healthy. The Mets got to 90 wins and played a team with 92 wins in the first round…and played the 3rd place team in the NLC for the pennant (the Cubs when they were still the Cubs). Could a bunch of veterans suddenly over perform? Could a bunch of rookies suddenly get it? Could the Twins do a once-in-a-decade tap dance through the AL playoffs? Yes to all. Highly unlikely…and not something you should spend a legit prospect on. Meanwhile, winning the division doesn’t require anything beyond marginal improvement.
  6. jkcarew
    Really like this pick. Does anyone have a take on signability issues?
  7. jkcarew
    Yeah. But I still don’t think he ranks high on the list of issues (at least longer-term) with this club. Admittedly, that’s based on a belief that the hitting will come back close to career norms, which is no guarantee. Fwiw, BABiP is way below career norms…and it matches the eye test, IMO.
  8. jkcarew
    For how long? Forever isn’t acceptable, IMO.
  9. jkcarew
    The play at first really doesn’t have anything to do with what position he’s playing…and in high school and the minors, he’s spent his entire career moving around and displaying aptitude in various high-leverage defensive positions…way more often at SS or CF than 3rd. That’s WHY he was a number 1 pick. Still, I mostly agree with you if this is temporary. That would seem reasonable. If not, it definitely will NOT be in the best interest of the club.
  10. jkcarew
    Even that doesn’t make that much sense to me. It MAY mean he has a longer career. But he will be worth less money DURING the career if he’s stuck at 3rd…or doesn’t play SS or CF…and he clearly seem capable…especially of the latter. Maybe the point is simply increasing likelihood he at least makes it to free agency once. Sacrifice some upside to protect the bottom for career earnings. Bottom line, it’s definitely not good for the team. Hopefully, it’s short term.
  11. jkcarew
    Same.
  12. jkcarew
    Your conclusions are spot on, IMO. I get there just slightly differently. To me, there are HINTS of talent to ‘support’ the core. But the core really isn’t that good and/or available any more. Probably don’t need to tear it completely down, but need to get younger, not older. The team that just passed you in the standings is the youngest in the majors, and they’re already on par (at least) with the Twins. One-year rentals put us further behind…and this roster shows zero signs of being “one player away”…or two or three unless a couple are true stars.
  13. jkcarew
    The “don’t want to play center” with Lewis is a problem. And it will eventually hurt his value if it doesn’t change. It’s pretty damning that no matter what you do, you still have Buxton DH’ing, and MAT in center. Best case scenario (offensively) is you put Lewis in a corner OF spot (if he blesses the club with his willingness), and you added Arenado AB’s at the expense of Castro and/or Kepler AB’s. That’s good. Is it enough to make the club legit offensively. Doubtful. On the other hand, if you do the above, plus replace MAT’s AB’s with Buxton in CF…AND you then give a bunch more AB’s to Julien without compromising the defense (and Jeffers some) at DH…now maybe you have something. I’d be very interested in Arenado based on the likelihood that he has at least a couple real good years remaining. But, it would depend on the price and/or the willingness to solve or at least steps to TRY to mitigate the suboptimization of the roster, which looks more ridiculous by the day. My bet is Saint Louis will dangle Arenado in case someone looses their mind and offers a kings ransom, but I doubt they’re very motivated…simply due to their track record of knowing what they’re doing.
  14. jkcarew
    Wonder if he’ll sign. I assume he has one year of eligibility remaining…may return and hope for much better signing $ next year. Probably was expecting to go much sooner this year.
  15. jkcarew
    Third pick doesn’t bother me. Signability is a real concern down at 49 for the remaining top HS guys with the top school offers. Seem’s they simply went with a college guy they liked and knew they could sign at slot.
  16. jkcarew
    If only Martin’s hit tool would kick in more, yes.
  17. jkcarew
    Agreed…what I’ve read, he doesn’t project to be a power guy based on approach and swing. Lots of hits, extra base hits and a high SLG would be expected of top 100 guys at the college levels regardless of HR power. His profile is more hits and XBH than HR and K’s. Something the current Twins lineup could use more of.
  18. jkcarew
    Or even at slot. The top remaining HS pitchers are going to be tough signs down here.
  19. jkcarew
    Apparently, felt like they needed to go under slot at 49. ”hit over power” should sound good to those that have had it up to hear with K’s this season.
  20. jkcarew
    Don’t see how he can with the frame he already has at 18. But, maybe he’s a freak. Would be nice. About now, I’d be happy if he just WANTS to play center.
  21. jkcarew
    I would have gone Teel…but they might think he’s not a catcher. First 4 picks went exactly the way I DIDN’T want them to go. Oh well…no matter what happens now, we can’t say they ‘reached’.
  22. jkcarew
    The odds are not fantastic that you get a needle-mover at any pick. But the odds are much better taking the best player available at 5, than anything you can do in the 30’s…no matter how you play the money.
  23. jkcarew
    This is WILDLY pessimistic. And only MOSTLY realistic.
  24. jkcarew
    Hey…but a dominant series against Oakland out of the brake can turn things around!! (apologies for not knowing how to do the sarcasm font)
  25. jkcarew
    Will the FO demonstrate the courage and common sense to sell at the deadline?? If we played in a legitimate division…any division accept this one, there would be no question. Instead, no doubt, we’ll be asked to continue to pretend we’re “competing”…and embrace mediocrity in perpetuity.
×
×
  • Create New...