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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Not exactly a huge regression, though. Very similar to what everyone should have expected from Gonzalez. He had one outlier year...and it wasn't 2018.
  2. jkcarew
    The inning in question went single, single, line-out, double, walk, ground-out (error trying to get a double-play), K. So, zero to five extra pitches depending on whether you want to assume a double play on the ground-out. He wasn't good. James Paxton handed his bullpen a shorter game that Berrios did his bullpen. And Berrios won't be matched up against James Paxton the next time the Twins play the Yankees in the post-season.
  3. jkcarew
    Tell me again...what do we get for being the best team in the league in February? I admit, it's nice to know that, even with reasonable regression from several pieces, you should still be in the hunt. But what we still need to hope for is that the favorable surprises outweigh the inevitable unfavorable surprises. If that happens, we're not just 'in a playoff hunt' like would have been the case...in like forever...instead, we'll have a real actual shot at something meaningful. Should be fun!
  4. jkcarew
    Marwin Gonzalez's OPS in 2019 was 3 points higher than it was in 2018.
  5. jkcarew
    Only thing I can trace regarding issues with Kirilloff's "defensive profile"...is the fact that the Twins chose to play him at 1B for 35 games last year. I think a lot more has been read into that than probably should have been. Still, I'm surprised Kirilloff made a significant move up anyone's list in the past season. Not that I would have expected him to take a dive in ranking, either. But, 2019 was mixed bag of nagging injuries and mediocre results. Of particular note, he took a significant step back in his power numbers.
  6. jkcarew
    Nice, objective article on a player that seems to be pretty much universally admired. Well done. I’m not convinced he can’t figure things out (especially with the change up) and take another step. But this article does a good job of illustrating why...if you have to give him something like #1 money to keep him beyond 2022...it’s not at all clear that you should at this point.
  7. jkcarew
    I’m guessing hundreds of Dominican players...including several Twins...have participated in their team’s winter tour, and yet managed to get to spring training before camp broke.
  8. jkcarew
    No. They wouldn’t. At least at this point. Cave now has an 111 OPS+ in over 500 major-league plate appearances.
  9. jkcarew
    I've seen this sentiment pop up a few times during our off-season "impact pitching" saga. Berrios got through 4 innings, having given up 8 base-runners (one on an error)...and he took 88 pitches to do it. His WPA was -.126. If that's how your best pitcher is going to fare in his first start in a 5-game series, your chances of winning that series take a material hit.
  10. jkcarew
    Because it leaves you zero margin for error...even with the 13-man pitching staffs. Last year, the bullpen averaged 3.5 innings pitched per game...and still there were periods when they were taxed, and/or the top arms weren't available. A 'plan' that calls for them to go 4 innings per game isn't viable. Maybe in the future when things (rosters) evolve even further...but for now, your best pitcher still needs to get people out at a decent rate, AND eat innings. And if you have two guys that can eat innings that's twice as good as having one. Right now, the Twins have one.
  11. jkcarew
    I like several of the concepts here...particularly reducing the number of games and moving up the conclusion of the playoffs. But, I think you can get most of what this is getting at in a much more simple way... Eliminate inter-league games. If you're in St. Louis and the 160 times per season you can watch/stream Mike Trout isn't enough...drive to Chicago.Reduce the number of games to 154 (or 148)Don't balance the schedule (that's what the wild card and playoffs are for); keep the regional rivalriesAdd 2 teams to the playoff format (making it 8 teams for each league) The biggest challenges with the ideas in this thread... There's not enough revenue sharing in the foreseeable future for some owners to agree to a format where they can end up playing significantly fewer games than the teams that they have to compete against"not knowing where/who you will be playing until a few days in advance" for a significant number of games played in the summer months? That's an absolute deal-breaker. A HUGE part of baseball game-day revenue is supplied by rural people/families on summer vacations/trips. Teams will reject risking July and August in this manner. Not reject...not even consider.
  12. jkcarew
    I love it! Data is god. Or is it God is data? Doesn't matter. This gives the Twins a competitive advantage forever. Nobody else will have access to this technology and/or be able to learn from it. Ever. I hate it! It's reason 1001 for the modern player to adopt the same boring, cookie cutter swing that everyone else has. After all, the data says it's optimal. Somewhere, right now as we read, there's a 19 year-old Rod Carew being told to change his swing by a guy with a laptop who never made the high school baseball team, but won the blue ribbon at the science fair. OK...I'm somewhere in between those two takes. (But please keep Louis Arraez away from this thing!)
  13. jkcarew
    That's not a lineup. Someone simply copied TD's prospect rankings and took a photo of it. (...even still has Graterol!) I'm pulling for Minnesota.
  14. jkcarew
    "...saying ZiPS is harder on those lower on the defensive spectrum, hated Kirilloff’s 2019 (due to injury and not hitting enough for corner OF/1B) and didn’t like Larnach due to his lack of power." Over half of Larnach's minor-league plate appearances have been in the FSL with Fort Myers. His small sample-power at Pensacola last year was the same as was Jeffers'. Jeffers is getting a big premium here for projecting as a catcher. We'll see. Interestingly, Blankenhorn's power numbers at Pensacola last year were better than both Jeffers and Larnach...and at the same age. And I agree that there was really not much in Kirilloff's 2019 numbers at Pensacola that scream "knocking on door". But he's also a year younger than the others (and having missed one entire year of development).
  15. jkcarew
    For my part, I would be very much apposed to taking the franchise from the fan-base because of something the players and/or FO did.
  16. jkcarew
    I agree with the premise of this article, 100%. MLB needs to move past the sign-stealing scandal and address more, and bigger, fundamental challenges for the future of the game. Unfortunately, the commissioner and the Astros players are standing in the way of moving on. Nothing is going to change or happen beyond what's already taken place...but just when it seems we start to move on, an Astro's player or the commissioner do/say something stupid, and we start all over again. Yuk.
  17. jkcarew
    If you give Berrios a Jake Odorizzi workload (160 innings vs 200)...and his performance doesn't pop significantly...he becomes less valuable than Odorizzi. At this point in his career, no numbers stand out in driving value more than his innings-pitched numbers....his ability to give the bullpen a relative break on a consistent basis....and his ability to provide something close to decent even on bad days, as opposed to having to mix in 6, 7, 8 extra starts for a #5 or #6 guy...who's top-end is only decent...and short, at that. If limiting his innings doesn't move the bar big-time on effectiveness, you've simply taken a guy who's a number 2 because he can't consistently dominate...and you've made him a 3 because now, he doesn't eat innings, either. Let's hope for a different solution.
  18. jkcarew
    I agree there have been big red flags for some time with Graterol in terms of his being a major-league starter. And also agree that pointing those out wasn't a way to become popular here. His TD prospect rankings these last two seasons are indications that the writers on this site mostly chose to ignore those flags. Still, I don't know that he NEVER becomes a starter. Never's a long time. But, it's clear to me based on the deal they made, that the Twins think it's unlikely to work for the foreseeable future.
  19. jkcarew
    Based on what? IMO, the jury is still very much out on this.
  20. jkcarew
    Have your 6th best pitcher pitch more and your best pitcher pitch less...as a deliberate strategy? This will be done as necessitated by injury and fatigue, not as a deliberate long-term strategy. The best pitchers will always be the best. Pay a guy...what, 2-5 times more than an average starter and 4-8 times more than a good reliever...then have him throw 140 innings? I don’t see this happening for a while. I won’t say never, though.
  21. jkcarew
    "Before you brandish your pitchforks, do know that I was born in Wisconsin..." Oh, yeah...that's SO much better. Just kidding. We love our Wisconsin Minnesota fans. Nice article.
  22. jkcarew
    In other news, every pitcher on the Twins current staff has better stuff than Walter Johnson because their k/9 is significantly better than his was. This is going to be a GREAT year!
  23. jkcarew
    But I'm not saying pitchers shouldn't throw at batters under any circumstances. (Or, that's not my point.) I'm saying that this isn't a big enough deal....even though so many really seem to want it to be. First, I don't think opposing players care even half as much as most posters here about the 'lack' of punishment...to the team maybe, but not the individuals. Secondly, pitchers understand that throwing at someone is a very big deal...that's why it only happens as an extreme, immediate (usually) and emotional response to a very personal affront (perceived or real). This isn't going to be that, IMO....even though it seems many think it is...or will be. Maybe I'm wrong. We'll see. I do agree that MLB should not be ignorant of the possibility.
  24. jkcarew
    Berrios threw 88 pitches to get through 4 innings, giving up 8 base runners (one on an error), and 3 runs, 1 earned. Did he embarrass himself? No. Nor did he pitch anything close to "well" if the objective is to beat a team who will be throwing Cole against you.
  25. jkcarew
    Hopefully, like they handle it in any other game/situation. It's amusing to me to read posts from a community that practically explodes in disapproval every time a pitcher throws at a batter...or even appears to be. Now, the same community seemingly can't wait for a Houston batter to be thrown at (not suggesting you personally, but by the tone/tenor, and explicit remarks from many.) I guess we're seeing where the threshold lies to justify throwing at batters. It's when WE feel offended.
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