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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    This. The 60 game ‘reduced sentence’ came with an assumed forfeiture of 60 games-worth of salary...played and paid games. That’s the ultimate hammer. (For Pineda, that’s roughly $3.7M, against his $10M salary, and his career earnings are about $36M). The suspension and the abbreviated season couldn’t have come at a worse time for Pineda, and I feel bad for him in that regard. But no way do I see a reduction as a practical or realistic outcome.
  2. jkcarew
    It could catch on... The Atlanta Hammers The New York Babies (or Sultans) The St Louis Men The San Francisco Kids The Baltimore Robinsons The Cincinnati Hustlers The Detroit Peaches The Seattle Juniors (or Units, or Kings) The Washington Big Trains The Boston Splinters (or Big Daddies) The Minnesota Killers Never mind.
  3. jkcarew
    Naps.
  4. jkcarew
    It’s about wealth, not ethic identity. Is Louis Arraez going to opt out because Felix Hernandez decided to? Or is he going to play because he can practically double his career earnings in 3 months? Still, I’m struggling to see how this is really going to come to fruition at all, at this point.
  5. jkcarew
    Are you suggesting it’s helped them in the past?
  6. jkcarew
    Sure, why not? Let’s take down the statue of the guy who brought Major League Baseball to Minnesota, so that we can more prominently feature the statue of the guy who tried to take Major League Baseball away from Minnesota. Carew has condemned the ‘78 comments while defending the entirety of the person the man was on numerous, numerous occasions. Of course none of that would matter since it’s 2020. Ridiculous.
  7. jkcarew
    70 games? I'm shocked. Suddenly the MLBPA willing to risk injury and illness by rushing back and/or playing later into the fall...all, for us fans! Shocked, I tell you.
  8. jkcarew
    Not great by any means. Represents less than a 5% average year-over-year increase (over the 8 years since the previous deal was done). When considered alongside ongoing attendance struggles, this can be considered consistent with the narrative of slowing revenue growth on the horizon.
  9. jkcarew
    At this point and date, what scenario could one possibly dream up that would have 2020 MLB TV ratings “booming”? Going against the NBA playoffs and then the NFL?? In a season that many purists will consider an exhibition? And after the delays, feet-dragging, and ‘negotiating’ ugliness that we will have witnessed for half of the summer? And with the very strong likelihood that some stars will not play? Meanwhile, one could make the argument that MLB ratings have been ‘less bad’ than most other programming...but they haven’t boomed for a very, very long time. I think the chance of booming ratings for 2020 were probably always slim...and slim left the building right around the time MLB blew its opportunity to lead the return of professional sports.
  10. jkcarew
    A reckoning was coming at the end of the current CBA, regardless. The pandemic starts bringing things to a head sooner. Is it possible that if an agreement isn't reached to play in 2020, at least we surface the ugliness early enough to salvage an at-risk 2022 season? Revenue sharing and salary cap, anybody? That's my glass half-full look at this depressing situation.
  11. jkcarew
    No matter how many express this opinion, it doesn't make it a fact for all teams...or even most teams. Teams will incur costs that are greater than a prorated per-game level (for a deal where owners have to pay prorated per-game major league salaries)...easily greater, since you have to factor admin, on-going minor league costs, servicing fixed assets, and rent/debt, etc. Meanwhile, owners will realize revenue that is less than a prorated per-game level, given little to no gate, concessions, parking, merchandise...clearly. In all of the major sports in America, the owners enjoy what amounts to a legal monopoly. But in modern times, the players unions amount to the same on the labor side. If the owners have significant money on the table, they can share it with the union, or get nothing (worse than nothing) if the union strikes, or foregoes all offers. The MLBPA is the most powerful of unions, and dominated by those at the far right-hand side of the salary bell curve. The playing field isn't nearly as sloped as suggested here. Also, Mark Cuban?? Really? An obsession with thrusting your name and likeness in front of any and every camera in sight 24x7, and inventing more and more new ways to draw attention to yourself at any cost says absolutely ZERO about your commitment to the game you represent. And much about your commitment to...yourself.
  12. jkcarew
    I think it's a good idea. It would feel a bit like an exhibition season anyway. Especially, if several big-time players opt out of playing. And I would suspect that several would do just that...in the unlikely event that a 50-game season was somehow accepted by the union.
  13. jkcarew
    The first round of the MLB draft is over-rated. Littered with busts...and if you throw out the very top, the first round is barely materially different in terms of producing future value than is the supplemental round or even the 2nd round. Having said that...if you have a very high first-round pick...it really does hurt to miss on those. Twins history with top 6 overall picks includes the likes of Adam Johnson, Willie Banks, Travis Lee (didn't sign), Dave McCarty (god), Bryan Oelkers, BJ Garbe, Nick Gordon, Ryan Mills, Tyler Jay....and Joe Mauer...and Byron Buxton. (Puckett was drafted 3rd overall in '82...but in a secondary January draft phase that no longer exists.) Adds to the argument that many here make...that it usually pays to be more aggressive trading high prospects for proven pieces while the prospect still has the high draft pick smell.
  14. jkcarew
    Sticking with the theme... RBI King: Luis Arraez Gold Glove: Miguel Sano Iron Man: Byron Buxton.
  15. jkcarew
    No. Without a vaccine, only Timberwolves games will be safe.
  16. jkcarew
    MLB embarrassing itself. On both sides. Objects in mirror (NHL, soccer) closer than they appear. Collapsing under it’s own weight. Owners unwilling to come out behind for a year despite many years of coming out well ahead...a union dominated by the far right end of the salary bell curve...those making too much money in any one year (and in many cases, already set for multiple generations) to be incented to compromise for a half-season, or even to play at all, under the circumstances. There’s probably a deal to be made with certain owners and a class of players. But between MLB ownership and this union? Seriously doubt it. And I’m starting not to care. Let them all stay home. Next season too. However long it takes for both parties to figure out they need us more than we need them.
  17. jkcarew
    If you look at how the series played out, the only ‘one guy’ scenario would be a right-handed batter in game seven...it’s the only game the Twins lost that was really within range of winning with a reasonable one-man performance...unless you want to assume that a pitcher throws a shutout or near shutout at Dodger stadium. Joe Nossek batted second in game 7. Earl Battey batted 5th, behind Killebrew, who reached base twice against Koufax. I’d go with Donaldson or Garver or Sano batting behind Killebrew and coming up with a dinger and a double...that could have done it. If they had DH’s in 1965, the answer to this question would have been Cruz.
  18. jkcarew
    67, 69, 70...take your pick. Oliva, Killebrew, Carew, Tovar, Allison, Perry, Kaat, Boswell, Chance, Perranoski...Graig Nettles and Rick Dempsey can’t find at-bats...Blyleven breaks onto the seen.
  19. jkcarew
    “Behind Giolito, the Sox are relying on post-prime Keuchel and Gonzalez along with Reynaldo Lopez...” Michael Kopech is alive and quite well.
  20. jkcarew
    Using 2019 WAR will provide a bias for the AL teams and against the NL, and result in ranking the Twins and Cleveland higher than what might be warranted. Remember that the AL central teams last year got to play Detroit and Kansas City...two historically bad teams that weren’t even pretending to try to win...nearly 40 times...include an extremely inexperienced White Sox club, and you’re at nearly 60 games. Based on win pct outside the division, the 2019 AL central last year was easily the worse division in baseball, and one of the weakest divisions that MLB has seen in decades. St Louis, Milwaukee, and the Cubs all had better records against winning teams last year than did the Twins (or Cleveland). Maybe the 2020 additions put the Twins at the top of this list, but it’s much, much, more questionable than this article suggests.
  21. jkcarew
    But, if we're talking the 60's only...the comparison would/should be Aaron/Mathews vs Killebrew/Oliva. Oliva did more in the 60's than Carew did. Then it becomes Aaron vs Killebrew and Mathews vs Oliva. And for the 60's (but only for the 60's), that comparison actually could go the Twins way. I'll but Mincher at 1B Killebrew at 3B Or...you could put Rollins at 3B, Mincher at 1B, Killebrew at DH, Tovar in CF.
  22. jkcarew
    Despite legend, runners were NEVER free to do anything they wanted to the catcher or 2nd-baseman. And not that many players suffered severe injuries...even fewer career-impacting injuries. (Yes, there's the "even one is too many" argument.) Back in the day, umpires could call interference any time they saw fit (and often did)...runners could elect to protect their own bodies (and usually did)...and, or course as a last resort, the players would resort to policing themselves. It usually worked. Now, there are all kinds of rules about what you can and can't do. The new rules cause other problems (unnecessary delays) and have other unintended consequences (225 pound muscled-up second-basemen that add to the 3-true-outcome epidemic)...but are likely to result in a small reduction in impactful injuries over time. Worth it? I don't think the answer is that much of a slam dunk.
  23. jkcarew
    I remember all these seasons. 1969 was actually the year Carew became my favorite player. He was 'cooler' than Killebrew (which was hugely important)...and 1969 was his first batting title. All three (with Carew's 1977) of these seasons were special...they weren't 'normal' MVP seasons...they were historical. I could easily go along with putting Mauer's season on par with Carew's 1977 based on Carew was playing 1B. But, not Killebrew's 1969. It's a good talker for sure. My point with WAR...the defensive component inconsistencies/flaws warp apples-to-apples WAR comparisons. Does his playing catcher in 2009 (and playing it well) add to Mauer's value (relative to Killebrew in 1969)? Well...yes. But how and how much is the issues when we're doing the comparison. In 2009, Mauer started 105 games at catcher. In 57 games someone else was the starting catcher for the Twins in 2009. Mauer played 109 games total in the field. In 1969 Killebrew started all 162 games in the field (mostly at 3rd base). He was on the field for over 93 percent of all defensive inning across the entire season. He had decent hands limited range, accurate arm. He committed 22 errors (in an era when errors were awarded). It's not like Killebrew was costing the Twins games. Meanwhile, Killebrew's offensive 1969 was better than Mauer's 2009. Yet, Mauer's bWAR comes out 26% higher than Killebrew's. I don't buy that. At all.
  24. jkcarew
    I think most of these arguments are over-stated. I don't see season RBI as being a record that is particularly 'impossible' to break going forward. The arguments that hold the most water to me are... -Players sitting too many games -OBP's going too low But big seasonal RBI numbers have often been simply a product of small-sample statistical anomalies experienced by good (and great) players. The player has a season where their BARISP, HR/FB, percentage of at-bats with runners in scoring positions, etc....all deviate from mean in a positive way. A little 'perfect storm' of RBI. No reason that won't still happen from time to time. In 1994, Kirby Puckett would have needed 28 RBI in the final 49 games to break Killebrew's record. Problem was...those games weren't played due to the player's strike. Puckett had 112 RBI in the Twins first 113 games. On pace for 160 RBI. Can some Twin come along and do 21 RBI less than that? I wouldn't say never. I do like the chances better for you younger guys out there .
  25. jkcarew
    I won't go by WAR...because Killebrew is robbed blind by WAR's defensive component. And WAR's defensive components are flawed...significantly, IMO. 1.Killebrew (offensively, that 1969 season is way better than Carew and Mauer's year. Way superior. It just is.) 2/3. Carew (his 1977 was better than Mauer's 2009 offensively...especialy when you consider Carew played nearly 20 more games that Joe that year.) 3/2. Mauer (the only reason WAR puts Mauer's 2009 up/over Killebrew's 1969 and/or Carew's 1977 is because of the positions they played; Still, I'm ok with Mauer's 2009 being with or ahead of Carew's 1977 based on the 105 games Joe played catcher that year. But not Killebrew. Killebrew's season was just too much better offensively.) 4. Morneau (he deserved that MVP) 5. Versalles (he deserved that MVP)
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