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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    I think the conversation was related to sleeper 2024 options for the big club. Jenkins doesn’t figure in in that regard.
  2. jkcarew
    I guess I was in the wrong neighborhood.😳
  3. jkcarew
    That’s definitely an “Optimistic” take on it. Still, the motivation for any act/decision is almost always the most obvious and simple. As Deep Throat said (not that one…the other one), “Follow the money” Their stated plan (which we hope is short-term) is to constrain payroll…and hope. A limping Buxton in 2024, was only ever going to get us an Austin Martin or maybe a MAT. The answer to an iffy Kirilloff has already been rendered in Santana. I’d like to agree, but I don’t think this tells us anything about how they REALLY feel about Buxton and Kirilloff.
  4. jkcarew
    Knocked him all the way from Jose Barrios to Adam Johnson. Don’t remember Adam Johnson? Exactly.
  5. jkcarew
    He really wasn’t ‘bad’ offensively last year when you look under the hood. I think the injury affected his defensive range more than anything (and probably his base running, although, I haven’t looked at that data). Offensively, his BABiP took a major dive, well below his career average. When that happens, you would expect the batted ball data to at least hint at a reason….gb/fb ratio spike, softer ev, and/or less consistent line drive %, pulling more, etc. Non of that happened. EV actually ticked up from 2022. Meanwhile the whiff and K rates really didn’t change much either. And it kinda meets the eye ball test…seems a ton of ground ball hit relatively well, right at someone, and it seemed like every line drive was caught. Until the playoffs.
  6. jkcarew
    Right…a DH is the whole, or low bar, (offensively) for a left-handed bat to address. Or somebody that can slide Julien or Wallner to DH, while providing more offense than Larnach/Santana which seem like the LH DH options currently. I think the solve we’ll get is Lee. Might work out. His LH numbers have been solid. Unclear on how/if they think they can address the vulnerabilities against lefties.
  7. jkcarew
    No..I guess the question is, can Martinez play 1B? (Hasn’t much.) If he can, he could be in the lineup basically every day at either 1B or DH. (You’d have to part ways with Santana in that scenario… if/when Kirilloff proves healthy…and the FO is sure to gag at wasting that money.) But if Martinez can only DH, you’re probably right. Still fwiw, Martinez has been a much better hitter than Buxton against right-handed pitching over his career. A lot better. I’d be willing to sit Buxton when he’s not playing CF, in a scenario with JD Martinez…Buxton just isn’t very valuable as a DH against right-handed pitching. You just make sure his off days are against right-handed starters, which shouldn’t be a problem. But the FO ain’t going to do that…even though it would be moot for the approx 50% of the season Buxton is all but guaranteed to miss. Anyway…here we have the reasons to get Martinez…and the reasons it’s about 110% that it won’t happen.
  8. jkcarew
    If Vasquez can give us an 85-ish OPS+ (his career average), it sure would give us some breathing room regarding any Jeffers regression. To me, seemed like there was some real improvement with Jeffers beyond the high BABiP. Hope that proves to be the case.
  9. jkcarew
    The sample size against lefties is always ‘small’. But that doesn’t mean all that much when you need to win a game against a lefty starter, or get on base against a left-handed reliever in high leverage. His unfavorable numbers are not limited to his time in St. Paul…they were poor at Wichita also. Needs to improve or simply give it up and focus on the left-handed swing. 25-man Conundrum, because if the numbers as a left-handed batter translate, he really does make the club better in 75% of scenarios. Move Julien to 1B/DH, and away we go.
  10. jkcarew
    Would be HUGE if he’s healthy and effective…especially if that can be the case in October.
  11. jkcarew
    Unless they can sign and draft amateurs, and then develop them…year after year… on a par with the likes of Tampa Bay, it’s not going to be pretty. This is where it’s actually bad to be in the ALC…because the FO can pretend to compete year after year, without ACTUALLY competing. And the general fan base swallows that bait…while chalking up relatively frequent, but short, playoff runs to “bad luck”.
  12. jkcarew
    I agree with JD Martinez. But, he’s a right handed bat and would be a ‘starter’ at DH, and/or 1B. I guess my assumption is that (regardless of what they ‘should’ do)…a platoon bat is all that’s in the budget…if even that. And in that scenario, a right-handed bat has a much lower threshold to clear in order to make the club better. A left-handed bat would have to be better than Lewis, Buxton, Kirilloff, Correa, Kepler, Wallner, and Julien to play against right-handed pitching. High bar. Meanwhile it’s pretty easy to improve that group against left-handed pitching…and to exceed the likes of Farmer, etc as platoon options. Regardless, if a left-handed bat that clears that bar is out there and available…yes, I’d take him at DH, or to force the likes of Wallner or Julien to DH.
  13. jkcarew
    Where… DH? (or 2B, if you slide Julien to DH)? I would think the priority would be a right-handed bat. With a lefty like Larnach to fill the DH role only if by consolation…the failure to land a right-handed bat, or Martin/Prato/whoever not being ready. A guy like Martin (if deemed ready) could play frequently between 2B, and outfield. FWIW, Polanco takes away a decent-ish right-handed bat with him as well.
  14. jkcarew
    I don’t think the favorite Larnach, either. I guess if the club doesn’t break down and sign MAT…AND Larnach tears it up in spring training? Still think it’s a most likely a right-handed bat with more defensive value and/or flexibility.
  15. jkcarew
    They were forthcoming with the news on payroll decline because they knew any stop-gap one-year TV deal would bring in way less money than the previous deal had on an annual basis. And they were correct. Many millions less. The narrative/insinuation that they “ended up getting a deal, but are pocketing the money” is ludicrous. They knew they would end up with SOME type of deal (and apparently, they were overconfident that it would include a solve for blackouts.) Let’s wait to see what they do or don’t do in the next few weeks and at the deadline.
  16. jkcarew
    Yes, they are both early enough in their developmental that it is still yet to be determined. But De Andrade seems clearly ahead offensively as of now. Last summer, his age 19 year in Fort Myers was significantly better than was Miller’s the previous season. And it’s not like Miller set a high offensive bar last season at Cedar Rapids. I do like how Miller seems to be able to get on base via BB.
  17. jkcarew
    Zero chance. But if it DID happen, I’d trade Kiriloff the day after (or the evening of) his first good game of the season. I do find it amusing that some here consider him so overrated. I trust it’s not folks who, at the same time, think Buxton is a superstar “when healthy”. Bellinger is a much better hitter than Buxton, he has a better track record of health, he is nearly 2 years younger than Buxton, and he…more than likely…will provide MORE defensive value than Buxton going forward. If you truly had a chance to sign Bellinger on a shorter-term deal…and PAYROLL was the dealbreaker, you’d certainly entertain trading several veterans…including Buxton…for a young controllable arm and or right-handed hitting OF prospect.
  18. jkcarew
    It’s fairly rare that a club can compete at a very high level consistently through the duration of a roster transition…or at least a transition of the roster core and leadership. For it to happen, multiple young guys need to exhibit near linear development…no regression, no ‘sophomore slumps’. And/or key prospects need to hit the MLB ground running. Still, with health and a bounce-back year from Correa, the 2024 Twins can get close to 91 wins, I think. The schedules are still unbalanced…and the AL Central is the gift that keeps on giving.
  19. jkcarew
    This. One was legendarily great in the postseason, the other quite ordinary in the limited chances he got. Probably gets in eventually. It may take some time. I think any concerted effort needs to be timed correctly. The plan needs to be strategically executed when unusually ‘weak’ new eligibility pools happen.
  20. jkcarew
    We’ll complain they chose revenue over ‘availability’, but at the same time, we’ll complain that payroll is too low. Was it the best decision long-term? I don’t know. Any decision that leads to more winning and less losing is the best short, medium and long-term decision. Beyond that, agree that anything to get kids (and young adults) hooked would really help. I don’t think the dilemma is getting better anytime soon for all but a handful of franchises. Cable was the cash cow, and it’s dying. And the streaming businesses aren’t breaking their banks to get baseball rights the way the cable services did.
  21. jkcarew
    No. But based on prognostications…some day, Southern Miss WILL have a Hall Hall.
  22. jkcarew
    “Minnesota has grown a reputation for successfully developing mid- to late-round college arms in recent seasons…” Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The 2024 starting rotation is shaping up as 4 guys acquired in trades…and Bailey Ober. I don’t think advancing guys (Festa, etc) through the minors entitles declaration of ‘successful development’. That’s not the objective, nor is the objective to simply reach the majors (Varland). I’d give you ‘promising’ with the likes of these two and others, but successful is premature, IMO.
  23. jkcarew
    Even the desperate and destitute Royals waited until Witt had played 308 games. It’s a question that doesn’t yet need to be asked. One, two, years from now…doesn’t matter…Lewis and his advisors should have plenty incentive to extend at moderate terms (relative to performance) given his injury history.
  24. jkcarew
    Jim Fregosi had received MVP votes for 8 consecutive seasons heading into his age 29 season, so… Is it just me, or does the computer seem to dislike Wallner…and HATE Jeffers?? I get that Jeffers’ BABiP spiked a bit last year…but he’s going to be as valuable offensively as Castro?
  25. jkcarew
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