The Twins' Offseason Action Is Contingent on Making a Significant Trade

5 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Gotta keep Ober! Ryan is too affordable and effective as well - health? Nobody is trading for a guy that’s not healthy.

I’d add Matthews - Henriquez - C. Lewis - into the mix with positional guys on list above to get trade partners to take action. These individuals don’t help with salary relief but they make moving $$ guys easier if combined in a trade.

Correa isn’t going anywhere. Royce Lewis needs a full season at Target before any thoughts of him being traded are put in motion.

One of the Catchers (probably Jeffers) should be moved with another couple pieces (Castro - Matthews) to bring back a young Catcher that can play.

Hard to see upside in trading Vazquez and then having to pay 50% of his salary as well. I’m sure there’s a way along with another piece or two to lower or eliminate the $$ outlay, but pretty difficult to assume how it may work.

I believe trading Vazquez and paying 50% and using Camargo would be OK but I would try to use a 15-20 prospect instead of the $5 MM. I heard someone in the know mention that Camargo puts on amazing long ball shows in B which doesn’t make him a hitter but maybe shows some HR potential ???

My plan for the team that I filled out using the template is sweeping and brings in Profar for LF, Jesse Winker to DH, Jose Iglesias as backup for Correa. Jax and Sasaki for the rotation, Chafin for the pen and now I would also sign Hays and Laureano. Trading Vazquez, Paddack, Castro, Larnach and I’m just about persuaded by the first commenter on trading Correa.

This team needs a big time shakeup. Across the outfield and across the infield, we don’t have a single non injury-prone (Correa, Buxton, Lewis, Lee?) or questionable due to lack of experience (Wallner, Lewis, Larnach, Lee) or questionable due to lack of offense that kills the team’s lineup (Jeffers, Vazquez) player in sight. Question marks everywhere and we’ve been playing that game for a few years, longer with Buxton. I have the most optimism about Miranda, Martin and Keirsey Jr. to stay healthy and carry their weight.

I thought Matthew Trueblood wrote an excellent article about how to acquire 1 or 2 young stars by trading prospects.

They also have 3 open spots on the 40 man roster.  I can't see them picking more than one player (if any) in the Rule 5 Draft coming up.  Seeing how that player has to remain on the big league roster all season, unless it's a player with great promise at a position we need, I think it's unlikely we add anyone. 

If we are planning to spin Paddack off for next to nothing if the other team picks up all $7.5 million (possible) I can't imagine that player would even be someone who is a 40 man roster contender.  

You have to include Santana signing with the Polanco trade.  His contract was prenegotiated and contingent on that deal happening.  Topa could provide good value this year and we still have a solid OF prospect in the minors…..

with that said the Twins will need to make a deal.  Probably Paddack.  Jansen just signed a 1 year 8 million contract in Tampa and he had a down year last year in Toronto .  This makes the. Velazquez contract less underwater then we thought.  If Oakland needs a C. They have money to burn.  If saving money is important we should sell a solid prospect to Oakland and a flyer one for Vazquez and Dobnak.  Both on one year deals could be ideal with a good prospect coming over.  Maybe OF Gonzalez from Seattle trade and CH Culpepper SP.  or some other combo you decide, not sure what we would get back in this trade.

once the salary dump is made I can see the Twins signing one of Mark Canha, Polanco, or Santana.  The rest of the offseason would be minor league signings.  What else needs to be done?  Get healthy first the season.  

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

Let's see what the players with options remaining can do. If it works out, we are stronger next year. If it doesn't work out we will be stronger next year. 

If the Margo look alike doesn't work out... we will not be stronger or closer next year.

There should be no consideration from the front office that this team is just a Mark Canha away. 

The front office made the bed... Lie in it. 

The team needs to take the proper steps to get themselves out of the Margot necessity cycle. 

There are a lot more options than just "play the young guys they already have" and "supplement by dumpster diving".

30 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

They also have 3 open spots on the 40 man roster.  I can't see them picking more than one player (if any) in the Rule 5 Draft coming up.  Seeing how that player has to remain on the big league roster all season, unless it's a player with great promise at a position we need, I think it's unlikely we add anyone. 

They pick 12th in the Rule 5 draft. The odds that there are 12 good players available are nearly zero.

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

I believe trading Vazquez and paying 50% and using Camargo would be OK🥶

Just what the Twins need.  🥶

42 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They pick 12th in the Rule 5 draft. The odds that there are 12 good players available are nearly zero.

The players picked rarely fall in order of best to worst. Every team has their own philosophy of pitching. The odds of the Twins finding a pitcher that first their profile is probably there. The chance that they are major league ready is what is low. The lists that I have seen are mostly AA and lower players. Just like with Ryan, they will take development time at the major league level. Teams make bad guesses all of the time. 

50 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They pick 12th in the Rule 5 draft. The odds that there are 12 good players available are nearly zero.

Chances are that most if not all the teams ahead of us will just pass on the rule 5 option.  Not saying that we should pick someone, but if they do, I doubt it would be their 12th choice.

54 minutes ago, RpR said:

Just what the Twins need.  🥶

They need money to work with. Vazquez+Paddack+Castro+Larnach could free up 5+7.5+6.75+2= 21.25 million. First addition would be Profar, then Hays, Laureano and Jesse Winker for probably less than the 21.25 million.

I could see them moving Jeffers and keep Vázquez.  Jeffers has much more trade value and will likely get much more expensive after this season.  
 

I could also see them moving Castro and getting pieces back for a 1 yr player would you got a ton of value out of from a minor league signing.

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

The front office made the bed... Lie in it. 

Sounds like death to 2025. Not sure you meant that or maybe you mean the front office decided on a group of players and you believe in those players ..... so roll it back and hope for better results next time.

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

They need money to work with. Vazquez+Paddack+Castro+Larnach could free up 5+7.5+6.75+2= 21.25 million. First addition would be Profar, then Hays, Laureano and Jesse Winker for probably less than the 21.25 million.

You want to drop one outfielder and add four? They need a second baseman now. If they trade Vazquez they would be desperate for a catcher.

2 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

They need money to work with. Vazquez+Paddack+Castro+Larnach could free up 5+7.5+6.75+2= 21.25 million. First addition would be Profar, then Hays, Laureano and Jesse Winker for probably less than the 21.25 million.

And a huge helping of wishful thinking.

As it stands now they need a 2nd and 1st baseman; it is illogical to add, the need for a MLB competent catcher, and expensive, to the fray.

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

I start every season optimistic even if I spend the off-season pessimistic. 

Bottom Line: Youth doesn't scare me. The Tigers just went on an incredible run with nothing but youth after trading away vets at the deadline. Youth doesn't scare me... Bad baseball that doesn't go away is what scares me. 

Here's the optimism for you. Youth has built in advantages that Margot's and Bundy's don't offer. If youth goes bad... you can send them down and try someone else. If at the end of the year... youth doesn't work out... at the very least... they got some major league work in... in theory... that makes them better for next year. Or at least a better idea what is needed next year. It's usable information on players coming back as opposed to throw away information acquired on a guy that's going away after collecting a 4 million dollar pay check on a 1 year deal. 

The Twins can only sustain themselves through development... so... let's just remove those hurdles and get out of the Margot followed by Margot look a like death spiral. 

I'll keep my hopes real simple... just one thing this offseason. Please... no specialists... Let's see if we can make some young players special from top to bottom instead. 

There is nothing worse than have a bad season with Margot's and Bundy's. You have a bad season and you did absolutely nothing for next season. 

You seem to want the Twins to be an extened AAA, but now it sounds more like a summer camp for kids.

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Pete Alonso isn't coming, 

We have a roster. Let's GO!!! 

To battle Chicago for 4th place, wow.

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

The same old same old - it is impossible (for me) to understand how F & S operate. If the payroll is going to be below $140 million, one would think that this offseason there should be some transactions. Proactive is a better idea than reactive in March, but I'm just a fan.

One would think that the price for starting pitchers just went up. Kansas City was proactive and with Luis Severino signing with the A's there must be a little bit of fidgeting in New York and a couple of other cities. Paddack should be easy to move but Falvey may still be thinking that the Sheriff is surely to return to 2019 status. Perhaps he also sees Vazquez being one weight room visit and yoga session from returning to his prime as well. Both players do have value. The question is how much and for whom.

Perhaps more importantly, one has to wonder whether the team could be improved by making a bold move, one that could potentially backfire. The consensus on Twins Daily seems to be a roll back of the 2024 team. I'm ready for a roll of the dice with a significant number of trades. Call Seattle, Milwaukee, Arizona, Boston, Miami, and others. Stagnation is my fear for the Twins.

I'm with you, money shedding trades and prospects for young controllable talents. Almost no offensive player should be untouchable because so many are Injury or inexperience risks. I''d try to get Profar, Jesse Winker, Hays, Laureano and more hitters via trade. The offense is the worst problem with the Twins now.

Get rid of Lewis and Julien whilst bringing back Solano and Urshela.

Solano has a good bat and Urshela is a very good 3rd baseman.

Of what is left Martin was not too bad at 2nd so there is the infield.

The long and short of all this boils down to trying to compete with a weiner budget against those eating the ribeyes.  Yeah, we can make it look good in our own division (occasionally) but we're not competing with the big spenders consistantly.  Until the Pohlads or whoever buys the team decides to spend some of their billions on their baseball hobby, we are just pretending to make some kind of difference.  How's that for pessimism for you?

It is sad we need to be financially constrained, but since we are, I will keep screaming from the mountaintops until this gets done or these parties are no longer available.

And first off  I HATE moving him!! But if we are talking about clearing salary and moving pitching, how are we NOT talking about Pablo Lopez? A) he would command the biggest return.  B) he would clear the most money and C) He would allow us to package Vazquez to clear more money.

No other team would be incentivized to bring on Vazquez with an Ober or Ryan.

The perfect trade partner right now are the Red Sox. 

Move Lopez and Vazquez in the same deal to the Sox in exchange for Tristan Casas and Miguel Bleis.

That clears $32M and give us a legit starting 1B.

Then to offset pitching loss sign BOTH Scherzer and Verlander to 3 years deals. with player options after the 1st year.  I think could easily get them for an average of $12M per.

So Verlander and Scherzer on 3 year $36M deals (on average maybe one has to be a bit higher who knows).  I would say Verlander, Scherzer, Casas  in exchange for Lopez and Vazquez is a MASSIVE overhaul!!  PLUS would be saving close to $10M in total.

If they can be even league average pitchers it is a Phenomenal deal!!  WIN

If they are hurt and/or suck then on the hook for 2 more years (Unless you make year 2 a mutual Option with say an $8M buyout, then at least you get the third year off the books). LOSS (but a manageable loss)

If Twins are out of contention but they are pitching well then you have 2 strong trade deadline pieces, and can move mor salary and pick up more assets.  WIN.

22 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

RV78 really hit the nail on the head for me.  Nick said it as well.  My biggest frustration with Twins leadership in the past (Pohlads and FO) is that they wait...and wait...and WAIT until all that is left is table scraps.  That's why year after year, they appear to have no plan.  

Things with this organization are just too haphazard.  They are constantly dumpster diving but then go out and sign Carlos Correa for big money.  Correa is a signing you make when you decide your window is open and you're making  a bid for a championship.  When 2023 comes around, and you win the division and actually win a playoff game for the first time in nearly 2 decades the decision is suddenly made to "right size" your payroll.  As fans we then realize "There Really Is No Plan." 

They collapsed at the end of last season and finished 4th in the division.  The only team worse than the Twins was the all time MLB loss record setting White Sox.  But there is still a LOT of talent on this team even though they have some concerning roster holes.  The division is getting better and better.  I agree with RV78 and Nick Nelson that I would "LIKE" to see the Twins be more proactive.  I'd like to see evidence of an actual PLAN, not just reactions to the market.

I think at $7.5 million a LOT of teams would be interested in Paddack.  And with the recent price of pitching Paddack has real value.  The Twins SHOULD be able to make a deal with him, even if it has to be a little later when several teams look at their rotations and see they are coming up short.  

I think there is more value to Vasquez, even at his price than we're allowing for.  There are a host of teams that have a need for a Vasquez type of catcher.  Texas is not a possibility after they signed a catcher but there are others.  And I think there are a lot of teams that would look at the cost of Paddack or Vasquez as not a problem to take on the entire contract.  Especially if a little sweetener like a minor league prospect was attached.  

Finally, I see Nick has Willie Castro penciled in as the starting LF.  That makes sense.  Castro would be following the same career path as Cesar Tovar for the Twins.  Castro is actually very good defensively in LF.  Heck, the Dodgers just gave Tommy Edman 5 yrs and $75 million (and we've been conditioned by our ownership and FO to beg for smelling salts at the thought of $15 million per year for Byron Buxton).  I imagine Edman will play either SS or CF fulltime depending on what other moves the Dodgers make.  But I still think Castro would be someone they would be interested in.

I want to see the Twins swing a deal for Kyle Teel or Dalton Rushing.  THIS is the BIG TRADE I want to see happen during the Winter Meetings.  I think Rushing is more likely with the Dodgers extreme abundance of top catching prospects and All Star Will Smith firmly entrenched as the starter.  I'm not sure what the deal would be, but I would have Castro as part of it.  The Dodgers are in WIN NOW mode.  Why not get an integral piece like Castro right now when Rushing is blocked by Will Smith for several years.  Not sure what else would be needed.  Would the Dodgers push us to include Jhoan Duran?  How big could the deal go?

If you acquired Rushing from L.A. and had a plan to trade Paddack later,  you could make a deal with Miami for Vasquez where you would take back more salary (Alcantara $15 million).  He's coming off Tommy John but after missing all of 2024 he will be ready to pitch in 2025.   

In this type of plan you would cut $23.7 million and add $15.75 million with Alcantara and Rushing.  That leaves around $8 million left to invest in the roster.  Spend $1.5 million to sign Jose Iglesias to cover the infield spots Castro would have and you still have $6.5 million to work with. 

This ownership group and FO has the means to make some moves to fortify this roster while cutting payroll.  They just need to have the guts to be aggressive in implementing their plan.  But waiting "for the market to shake out" isn't going to work.  It will reduce options and Plan B, and Plan C and Plan D.  

Rushing has been on my target for a while now. He'd be a great catcher but he's blocked at LAD, he could play 1B but again blocked, LF isn't a good option. LAD has had a lot of opportunities to trade Rushing, but it seems they are saving him for a real special deal, whatever that may look like. Does the Twins have that special deal that LAD want?

MIA has no interest in Vazquez, no teams have real interest in him. Jeffers has no future here, he's not a starting catcher & he'll want a sweetheart extension deal. W/o Vazquez to stabilize the catching, it'll fall apart under Jeffers. We need to look not only if we can squeeze by another season at catcher but we need to look towards the future. The only way I'd consider moving on from Vazquez is to acquire a Moreno who a different TD member suggested. AZ isn't motivated to move him, you have to be very proactive to make this happen. A Rortvedt (TB) but it won't be easy. I like the underrated HOU backup Victor Caratini, who could be our starting catcher for a while if we can extend him. & that not saying we don't need  a future catcher for him to groom.

The greatest need we have is to have our FO proactive & initiate essential trades. In Falvey's time here, I have never seen him be proactive & initiate an important essential trade. He'd rather throw money around in FA, which is the last thing we need.

I don't think signing aging SP's like Verlander or Scherzer is a good strategy going forward.  They are guaranteed to break down, and they won't be cheap.

In the short term, the idea of trading Pablo Lopez could make sense.  But it all comes down to what you're getting back.  If you traded Lopez and Jeffers to the Red Sox, what else would it take to get Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel back?  Boston has an acute need in their starting rotation.  They also have a good catcher in Connor Wong but Jeffers would give then a solid hitting option in a time share and allow them to consider moving Teel. 

What else would it take from the Twins to make this happen?  SWR?  Matthews? Paddack?  If the Twins could somehow acquire a dynamic leadoff hitter and CF (allowing them to move Buxton to LF, solving the LF problem and possibly allowing for better health for Buxton going forward, AND acquire their Catcher of the Future" how big of a win would that be for the Twins??

Boston gets an Ace level SP and a solid catcher.  The Twins could roll with a rotation of Ryan, Ober, Jax, Festa and SWR/Matthews.  The Twins would probably need to come up with a #3 or #4 vet option for their rotation.  Maybe Jose Quintana?  It would lower payroll immediately, but a plan would need to be in place to make the team better going forward.  I would argue Jarren Duran and Kyle Teel could do just that.   

Trade idea, 

Twins trade Padock and Vasquez and Royce and ERod

Marlins assume full salary and trade back Fortes, and Luzardo