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Signed as an international free agent, Polanco has been with the Twins organization through the entirety of his pro career. He cracked the top 100 prospect lists prior to 2016, and he owns a .757 minor league OPS. Although power isn’t his game, Polanco has always been a bat first player, and extra-base hits have been a byproduct of his quickness. Wondering whether his glove would stick at short became a real question going into 2017, but it’s been his bat that has failed to play.
Starting out the season as a positive defensive asset, Polanco has regressed to career norms there. His arm isn’t ideal for shortstop, and it’s contributed to defensive miscues with his glove. In general, this was thought to be something worth overlooking should his bat play. With a .573 OPS on the season, Polanco has now begun to lose playing time.
During his 52 game pro debut at the rookie ball level, Polanco owned just a .597 OPS. He was 16 at the time however, and the .573 mark in 79 games for the Twins this year is easily a career worst. What’s promising however is that the struggle doesn’t appear to be reflective of a complete breakdown.
Aided by both speed and power, batting average on balls in play is one metric that has fallen off a cliff for Polanco. In 2017, he owns just a .240 BABIP despite posting a .328 mark a season ago. The power has actually taken a slight jump going to a 26% hard hit rate from 23.5% in 2016. While power will never be reflected in home runs for the Twins infielder, the goal will be moderately elevated line drives. That’s quite possibly the biggest explanation for the decline in BABIP, more power but fewer hits.
Over his career, Polanco owns a 23.7% line drive rate, and posted a 30.3% mark a year ago. In 2017 however, that number has fallen all the way to 18.2%. In taking a dive in the line drive department, Polanco has added to his ground ball totals, or the least effective place to put the baseball. For a guy hitting the ball out of the park just 3% of the time it’s in the air, having a combined ground ball and fly ball rate of 81.8% is suboptimal.
The good news is that Polanco has remained relatively consistent in other aspects of his approach. Pull rates haven’t increased significantly, and while he goes to the opposite field less often, it’s not an egregious change. He also continues to have good command of the strike zone. Polanco’s chase rate of 29.3% is actually down from 33.5% a year ago, while his 87.6% contact rate and 5.6% swinging strike rate are both career bests.
(Baseball Savant)
What this boils down to are two key differences between this year and last. First and foremost, the lack of positive results is easily attributed to lower success outcomes of batted balls. Polanco has watched his launch angle trend downwards in 2017, driving the ball into the ground more consistently. As evidenced in the charts from Baseball Savant, Polanco’s 2016 approach was conducive to line drives, while 2017 has been an opposite story.
Second, and maybe more concerning of the two, is Polanco’s pitch recognition. In the radial charts from 2016 and 2017, we can see that this season has produced many fewer well-hit balls. Whether a result of being out on his front foot, or unable to identify what’s coming in, well-struck balls have been elusive. Given the logic that a squared up baseball is more likely to be productive, it’s in the quality of contact that the Twins shortstop has also been hampered.
(Baseball Savant)
Going forward, there are some takeaways to be had here. Despite being out of options, Polanco is just 24 years old. He has yet to play in a full season’s worth of big league games (157 in his career), and remains a work in progress. Going through his first true professional struggle, I’d like to see him take the bulk of the game reps the rest of the way in 2017. He isn’t going to work himself out of the issues on the bench, and he remains a very key piece of the future success the Twins should experience.
For a guy who has shown an innate ability to avoid strikeouts and put the bat on the ball, his pitch recognition and eye have always been his calling card. It’s fair to question whether that may slip for an aging veteran, but it really shouldn’t be happening to a 24 year old. There’s no doubt Polanco is in a frustrating funk, but there’re very obvious areas to target for improvement.
At some point down the line, a few month stretch in 2017 will likely be a blip on the radar. I’d imagine Jorge Polanco would like to make that thought a reality sooner rather than later.
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