Report From The Fort: Marwin Gonzalez Fixes A Problem. (We Just Don't Know Which One Yet.)

This signing seems to make some current player redundant. Who drops off the 25-man roster? I’ll wager Adrianza.

This signing seems to make some current player redundant. Who drops off the 25-man roster? I’ll wager Adrianza.

I think its between Adrianza and Cave.  Cave is way more promising a player but Adrianza is the only real + glove shortstop on the team.  I prefer Cave but they may want the defense.

It seems to me like they just paid more money for Eduardo Escobar without fogo de chao sponsorship.

It seems to me like they just paid more money for Eduardo Escobar without fogo de chao sponsorship.

. . . And that’s a good thing. We know how many plate appearances Escobar got as the super utility player. I really don’t think Twins compete for AL Central without a player with Gonzalez’s ability on the roster. Adrianza is a stop gap for an injured player at best. Gonzalez allows starters to get regular rest and the option to fill in when one of them gets hurt. The lineup is not downgraded when Marwin is in the lineup.

Having a ring and the experience that goes along with it doesn’t hurt either.

At this point, the 2019 Twins are 100% Based on rebounds from players to their 2017 forms. In order to have a successful club this yr.
Gibson , Rosario and maybe Berrios May are some examples that we're great in '18... But nearly everyone else, including the newcomers need to go back in time.

I have the White Sox 2nd in division right now:

Cleveland 89-73
Chicago. 84-78
Minnesota 82-80
Detroit. 75-87
K.c. 72-90

Dylan Cease and Eloy Jimenez are unfathomably good young players that can take the Rodons, Nova's and Erv Santana's to next level...

Kopech could help them Late season as well...

Also Chicago probably has best bullpen in division. If healthy , fairly easily.

Kopech had TJ surgery on Sept. 19 of last year. He's not pitching for the White Sox this year.

It seems to me like they just paid more money for Eduardo Escobar without fogo de chao sponsorship.

That's mostly true. IMO, you have to look at the trade too. The Twins have:

2 yr Marwin + Jhoan Duran + Gabriel Maciel + Ernie de la Trinidad = 3 yr Escobar

= $21M

The Minnesota Fogo de Chao is a clear loser.

I think the Twins would have loved to have re-signed Escobar (and stayed out of the Marwin Sweepstakes), but AZ took advantage of their exclusive negotiating period and locked him down. But I like this deal for the Twins, especially as it's clear they're valuing Gonzalez for his versatility and not looking to him to lock down a particular starting role.

John has this absolutely right: Marwin solves a problem when one of their younger players doesn't take that next step, have that bounceback year, or someone has a significant injury. He sweeps up all these games and ABs from guys we really don't have any interest in playing too. If this means we're not giving ABs to guys like Petit, Field, or Motter...that's a good thing. It should mean we don't end up sliding Adrianza into LF or 1B either. It's game-day protection against the stupidity of having 13 pitchers too, which sadly will happen (and I maintain is a total waste) because you can shuffle Marwin in if someone comes off for an injury and feel good about wherever he plays.

You always want to be playing great players at as many positions as possible, but there's also significant value to not giving playing time to terrible players too. This move raises the floor for this team and buys nice insurance against bad slumps, injuries, or lack of development. I'm a fan. 

Yeah but Austudillo is the only player that has an elite skill, he doesn't strike out much.  He puts the ball in play better than almost anyone in baseball.   Also he has decent power (800 OPS) and his BA was pretty darn good last year. Granted all in a small sample size but he played well this winter too.  I don't think it is popularity that keeps him around but his skill set.  

 

So I'd argue the opposite of what you are.  As a baseball decision he seems to be the best option out of all those guys to me.

 

I do agree first and third are really the only two positions he can play reasonably well defensively.  Maybe catcher but the Twins don't seem to trust him much there.  He is limited defensively but his offense has been really good so far.  Find him a spot he can play and I think his ceiling is higher than any of the guys you listed.

I have to agree with Dman here. Prior to this move I thought there was really no chance Astudillo makes the roster if everyone is healthy on Opening Day. I'd say this raises his odds significantly. 

There is no need to carry Cave or Adrianza with Gonzalez on the 25 man. He can reliably play every position on the diamond except CF, which Kepler can do. That gives you the opportunity to start take Astudillo or Austin north with the squad. You'd still have Cave and Adrianza (if we elects to stay with the Twins) or Torreyes if you need to call someone up for a DL stint.

And this is more hypothesis than fact, but I wonder if Astudillo, because of his eye hand coordination, has a naturally high floor for fielding grounders and thrown balls (fly balls don't really require the same skill). Anyone ever seen a study on contact rate and fielding pct? (His range is still an issue of course)

Should be Astudillo if baseball is what's important (as opposed to keeping around a popular player). Adrianza gives them a real backup at SS. Gonzalez can play 7 positions OK. Cave can play 3. Adrianza can play 5. 

 

Astudillo has played 5, but C and 3B are really the only that he can be adequate at. And, remember the days when having a 3rd catcher was about the worst thing that Gardy could do? Ha!

 

Also of note... We're assuming a four-man bench but at some point they're likely to go to a 13-man pitching staff which means three bench spots. Taht's when it gets really interesting. 

What has made Astudillo popular? Could it be his .355 BA? This from a career .306 milb player. Could it be from the amazing plays he made as a C and a 3B? Could it be because he plays every play hard and with grit and determination? Could it be from his 0.8 WAR in a very short time of season for him?

I'll take Astudillo for the reasons I mentioned over Adrianza, Cave, Gonzalez, Austin and Cron any day. Perhaps he's only a flash in the pan. But perhaps he is better than a number of other players vying for a spot on the team and playing time. I don't think he should be denied a spot just because he is "popular" either.

The Twins signed a good backup/utility player without putting star talent in any of the starting positions. Congrats?

Calling Marwin a "good backup/utility player" seems disingenuous/agenda driven to me. 

Whose agenda? What's the conspiracy here?

Backup = one that serves as a substitute or support.

utility player = one who can play several positions competently.

This seems exactly right.

Astudillo will start the season in the minors because he has options. But he will spend time with the team. I see the bench as Gonzales, Adrianza, Garver, and one of Cave, Austin, Torres, Astudillo, or Duda. My best guess is Cave.

The real takeaway is we have a really good bench. Several of these guys could start on other teams.

When all the Astros were healthy the past two years, Gonzalez didn't play much at second, short and third. Then again, the 'Stos have All-Stars (and potential MVPs) at all three of those positions. I actually think Gonzalez would be fine defensively in the middle infield or third base. I can't find the quote, but his manager said he was as good defensively at every position for the Astros as the nominal regular.

 

When Correia was out in August the manager was giving time to Bregman at SS. There was at least one game last August with both Correia and Altuve out where Gonzalez was not used in either spot. Instead Gurriel was at 2B, Bregman at SS and Davis at 3B with Gonzalez in LF. I find it very odd that Hinch would shuffle his infield around like this if Gonzalez was a capable SS. Davis could have played LF.

At SS Gonzalez had a UZR150 of -30.6 and an Rdrs/yr of -22. Those metrics can easily be dismissed due to sample. When coupled with his reduced use at SS starting in late July I think there is reason to wonder if SS is not a position that he can play at an adequate level.

This is a good signing at two years. It probably just doesn’t reduce the need for another SS on the team. I will be watching to see if Schoop gets any SS innings this spring.