Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base

One detail that caught my attention was "the left side of the infield now locked down by franchise players."

That seems pretty nice and I hope it is true, but I wondered when was the last time the Twins and/or their fans considered a guy with 280 PA to be a franchise player. I can't remember one. It wasn't Killebrew, Oliva, Carew, Puckett, or Hrbek. Joe Mauer? Probably Joe. That is a high bar.

Second base is pretty set. chpettit19 accurately depicts where baseball is on defensive metrics. Whenever i read defensive metrics and the comments using them exclusively it makes me think of those who only consider wins a good judge of a pitcher. I also wonder if the person commenting with their piles of metrics is searching through data while listening to the games. Now listening to baseball and looking through data are fine hobbies which I wholeheartedly approve of, but as chpettit19 has said above, the educated eye is still far, far ahead of metrics when it comes to judging defense in baseball.

43 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

@RpR I don't generally question your "disagrees," but I'm curious in what you disagree with on my post about defensive metrics. Do you disagree that OAA is a counting metric? Do you disagree about how certain metrics are calculated? If you have differing info I'd love to hear what was wrong about my comment.

Eye Test part, although Julien often fails the eye test.

Glad to see most posters talking about defense instead of offense, but Julien's calling card is and will be his bat. And he needs to adjust at the plate or he will fall out favor, much like Miranda;

April 12 - July 29 splits (57 games): .300/.388/.539 (.927 OPS) 10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio.

July 30 - Oct 1 splits (52 games): .222/.374/.367 (.741 OPS) 6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Games 1 -5: .214/.389/.286 (.675 OPS) 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4/7 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Game 6: 2-3, 2B, HR, RBI, 1/1 BB/K ratio.

He was also often removed from games late for defense and didn't face LHP, including Play-offs. 

.741 OPS from July 29 until the end of the season was league average (Gallo's full season OPS was .741, which equated to an OPS+ of 101, league average.). Including his first 5 Play-off games, he was slightly below league average over this period, but finished his season with a very good game against Houston.

Just looking at the numbers, it would appear he tried to work deeper counts, which resulted in more walks and maintaining a high OBP, but came at the expense of a lower BA, a lower SLG%, and an uptick in SO's. He's young enough and skilled enough to hopefully turn it around (and he's off to good start this spring), but he could also turn into nothing more than a placeholder until Lee or someone else pushes him out.

39 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Glad to see most posters talking about defense instead of offense, but Julien's calling card is and will be his bat. And he needs to adjust at the plate or he will fall out favor, much like Miranda;

April 12 - July 29 splits (57 games): .300/.388/.539 (.927 OPS) 10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio.

July 30 - Oct 1 splits (52 games): .222/.374/.367 (.741 OPS) 6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Games 1 -5: .214/.389/.286 (.675 OPS) 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4/7 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Game 6: 2-3, 2B, HR, RBI, 1/1 BB/K ratio.

He was also often removed from games late for defense and didn't face LHP, including Play-offs. 

.741 OPS from July 29 until the end of the season was league average (Gallo's full season OPS was .741, which equated to an OPS+ of 101, league average.). Including his first 5 Play-off games, he was slightly below league average over this period, but finished his season with a very good game against Houston.

Just looking at the numbers, it would appear he tried to work deeper counts, which resulted in more walks and maintaining a high OBP, but came at the expense of a lower BA, a lower SLG%, and an uptick in SO's. He's young enough and skilled enough to hopefully turn it around (and he's off to good start this spring), but he could also turn into nothing more than a placeholder until Lee or someone else pushes him out.

 

This is an interesting take. When a rundown of third base happens will you remove the home runs that Royce Lewis hit to arrive at a similar conclusion? Consistency is a thing, right. 

All of Jeffers, Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner as position players and Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland, Duran, Jax, Topa, and Jackson as pitchers have to prove that one or two good months or years is not a dream and that they can become successful athletic performers for a full season and then after that season after season.

9 hours ago, RpR said:

In case you have a reading problem answer to 

That’s your rebuttal? How disappointing. 

7 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Glad to see most posters talking about defense instead of offense, but Julien's calling card is and will be his bat. And he needs to adjust at the plate or he will fall out favor, much like Miranda;

April 12 - July 29 splits (57 games): .300/.388/.539 (.927 OPS) 10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio.

July 30 - Oct 1 splits (52 games): .222/.374/.367 (.741 OPS) 6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Games 1 -5: .214/.389/.286 (.675 OPS) 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4/7 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Game 6: 2-3, 2B, HR, RBI, 1/1 BB/K ratio.

He was also often removed from games late for defense and didn't face LHP, including Play-offs. 

.741 OPS from July 29 until the end of the season was league average (Gallo's full season OPS was .741, which equated to an OPS+ of 101, league average.). Including his first 5 Play-off games, he was slightly below league average over this period, but finished his season with a very good game against Houston.

Just looking at the numbers, it would appear he tried to work deeper counts, which resulted in more walks and maintaining a high OBP, but came at the expense of a lower BA, a lower SLG%, and an uptick in SO's. He's young enough and skilled enough to hopefully turn it around (and he's off to good start this spring), but he could also turn into nothing more than a placeholder until Lee or someone else pushes him out.

 

Julien and Miranda isn't a great comparison. Especially comparing an injured Miranda to Julien.  Juliens plate discipline is elite.  His chase rate was the best in MLB.  He has something that most hitters wish they had. Julien hasn't even gotten into his prime yet and he does make the adjustments he needs to. Its a good bet that he will continue to keep pitchers on the defensive. Thats what he does. 
He wont always be our 2nd baseman, dor now he is. We need to enjoy the show in ‘24. The kid is gonna tear it up. 

I have a feeling we will be seeing a similar article in TD a year from now. Julien is no doubt a very talented hitter, but I'm not so sure the second base will remain his position for the duration of this decade. At any rate, I think he's more comfortable at second going into this season, and I hope that reflects on his overall play. 

14 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Part of the severe swings is opportunity based. If 2 players are both slightly below average defenders, but 1 gets the ball hit their direction more often he's going to show as a terrible defender depending on what metric you're looking at while the other guy just shows as slightly bad. OAA is a volume metric. It's not just judging how good you are in a general sense, it's counting the number of outs it believes you saved or cost.

If you and I were to make all the exact same plays, but you made twice as many of them then you'd have twice as much OAA than me. Doesn't mean you're twice as good of a fielder, though. Polanco and Arraez could've been the same quality of fielder, but Arraez had 615 chances last year while Polanco had 236. Arraez had more chances to screw up so his OAA was significantly lower. 

Defensive metrics have a long ways to go, and it's super important that people know what each metric is actually trying to tell you. OAA isn't great for just comparing generally what quality of fielder 2 players are because it's a chance driven metric. But most of the other ones are very limited in how they're judging defense. Defensive metrics need to be taken with a mountain of salt. They have a long ways to go. It's one part of the game that the eye test should still be the leading "metric."

This is a good explanation.   It only stands to reasons that the number of opportunities a player has to get an out of create a DRS, the greater the +/-.  It’s a qualitative measure weighted by a quantitative measure.  

What do you make of Arraez vs Julien?  Arraez had 433 attempts at 2B and had an OAA of -10.  Julien had roughly half the number of attempts (220) and posted an OAA of zero.  Theoretically, if Julien had double the attempts, the numbers would be precisely the same.  This also makes sense when one of the players is average.  Should we believe Julien performed better?  If we disagree with the rating, the problem is not quantity in this comparison.  It would have to be that the qualitative measures lack a level of accuracy that creates a false measure.  
 

Next year if Kepler is gone, Wallner moves to right. Who plays left? Julien will be good at second this year, I'm not among those in a hurry to move him. If AK rips it up, Julien performs as I predict, Larnach doesn't claim left in '25, Wallner performs, Lee is ready and Kepler leaves, your hole is in left. In that case what do you do? I would move Lewis to left and put Lee at 3rd. Julien stays put. Lots of ifs, yes, my only point is I don't see why so many are in such a hurry to move Julien to 1st/DH. It's like they forget about AK. We will find out this year, but I think there is a good chance Kirilloff is healthy, he rakes and also shows he is a fine first baseman. 

18 hours ago, Fatbat said:

One of Schobel and Keaschall will definitely be traded. Maybe both but I can see one of them playing Farmers role in 2026 and beyond. Do we bring them to MLB to prove they can play first to raise their trade value? 

Beating a dead horse here...... but using high draft picks on 2nd basemen is idiotic.

18 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I have to completely disagree.

Arraez is the worst defender of those 3 and it's not particularly close. Julien improved significantly as the season went on and was better than Polanco by the end of last year.

I don't think Julien will be the long-term 2B, but that's only because Lee should be a very good defender and not because of Julien's skill. By the end of the season no one was talking about Julien's defense, which is a good thing. 

I completely agree.  Let's also not forget that while Polanco was a great Twin, injuries and age are taking their toll.  I think Julien sticks at 2nd base this year unless he regresses, or Lee is simply unstoppable.   If all this plays out, then the trade deadline will prove very interesting with Farmer potentially on the block.

37 minutes ago, miracleb said:

Beating a dead horse here...... but using high draft picks on 2nd basemen is idiotic.

Until you trade one for an ace SP

9 hours ago, mnfireman said:

Glad to see most posters talking about defense instead of offense, but Julien's calling card is and will be his bat. And he needs to adjust at the plate or he will fall out favor, much like Miranda;

April 12 - July 29 splits (57 games): .300/.388/.539 (.927 OPS) 10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio.

July 30 - Oct 1 splits (52 games): .222/.374/.367 (.741 OPS) 6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Games 1 -5: .214/.389/.286 (.675 OPS) 0 HR, 1 RBI, 4/7 BB/K ratio.

Play-offs Game 6: 2-3, 2B, HR, RBI, 1/1 BB/K ratio.

He was also often removed from games late for defense and didn't face LHP, including Play-offs. 

.741 OPS from July 29 until the end of the season was league average (Gallo's full season OPS was .741, which equated to an OPS+ of 101, league average.). Including his first 5 Play-off games, he was slightly below league average over this period, but finished his season with a very good game against Houston.

Just looking at the numbers, it would appear he tried to work deeper counts, which resulted in more walks and maintaining a high OBP, but came at the expense of a lower BA, a lower SLG%, and an uptick in SO's. He's young enough and skilled enough to hopefully turn it around (and he's off to good start this spring), but he could also turn into nothing more than a placeholder until Lee or someone else pushes him out.

 

This is a good summation in my opinion. I like Julien and credit him for the hard work involved in improving his fielding. However I’m not nearly as high on him as most here. His babip was really high last year so some regression is likely. How much will determine his effectiveness going forward. I disagree with the comparisons to Koskie as he was a really good athlete. Juliens ceiling as a defender is mediocre - his hands are not soft and he is stiff in movement. These factors combined with him not hitting leftys at all tells me he can be a useful but not great player. Having said that I admire his competitiveness when he steps in the box. 

14 hours ago, RpR said:

Eye Test part, although Julien often fails the eye test.

What does this mean?  Are you saying that defensive metrics like OAA and DRS should be considered more reliable than the eye test?

2 hours ago, miracleb said:

Beating a dead horse here...... but using high draft picks on 2nd basemen is idiotic.

2B is still an up the middle / important defensive position.   It's not as idiotic as picking Sabato in the 1st round and definitely not as bad as picking Cavaco over Carroll and Stot.

8 hours ago, MN_ExPat said:

That’s your rebuttal? How disappointing. 

That is what it is, not my problem.

18 hours ago, Linus said:

This sums my feelings about defensive metrics quite nicely. The tip off for me is how much volatility there is in the rankings from year to year. Fielding in baseball would be something that gradually improves or declines. A good fielder doesnt become below average in one year and vice versa. 

Fielding stats are subject to small sample size variation just like hitting stats are. Players at many positions get fewer fielding chances than at-bats. Most plays are routine and it is only a small percentage of difficult plays that separate players on the defensive metrics. An analogy would be if hitters hit off a tee for half their at-bats and a live pitcher for the rest.

If players are good one year and bad the next there is often an injury (Correa's foot) that explains the difference.

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Fielding stats are subject to small sample size variation just like hitting stats are. Players at many positions get fewer fielding chances than at-bats. Most plays are routine and it is only a small percentage of difficult plays that separate players on the defensive metrics. An analogy would be if hitters hit off a tee for half their at-bats and a live pitcher for the rest.

If players are good one year and bad the next there is often an injury (Correa's foot) that explains the difference.

Understood. Or they just aren’t that accurate. 

48 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

IMO... Julien made significant noticeable improvement as the season went on. 

Julien is a capable 2B. He isn't Brandon Phillips but he is capable. 

Bad and Good are not the only two levels of talent assessment. There is a whole bunch of space in between bad and good and sometimes bad players have great days and good players have bad days. 

Julien is a capable 2B and I bet that he could be a capable 1B... maybe even a capable 3B or LF. 

Let him play and drive that ball around the park and out of the park.  

Julien just ripped one out of the park, lead off home run.

in 8 at bats that don’t matter, Julien has. .625/.667/1.125/1.792 slash line 🎯👈🏻🤩

11 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm a big Julien fan however... I'd really like to hear that it happened against a left hander. 

Nope. It was Giolitto.