Notebook: Pineda Struggles, Power Bats Break Out

Enforce the rules. Punish the cheaters. Period.

Please. please Twins get Max to hit some balls to the opposite field.  Pull side is totally killing him.  Please. please do it soon.  Today it was two two ground outs to the second baseman and one easy pop fly to right field.  It has been the same scenario all spring long.  How many times do you need to see it to know it is not working?  He needs a different approach .  I am begging you have him hit oppo or else replace him he is a one trick pony at this point and its not working anymore.  His BA and OBP and OPS prove it is not working.  Please change it ASAP before you destroy him.

I was high on Waddell being picked up, and now he’s looking like a good asset to keep at AAA. I feel better about the bullpen depth with some strong performances from guys like him and Law. Plus, Thorpe’s stuff looks like it has life again. Sure, it’s just spring training, but when you strike out this many guys, I’m taking notice.

What are the odds that Kepler hits the first pitch of the season into the seats? I don't think they are astronomical. Really, that is the mystery of Max Kepler to me. He has a nice sound swing and yet is so slump-prone. We've seen swoons from him every year for no apparent reason. Of course, we've seen the reverse where he's doing damage on almost every at-bat. 

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

 

He did OK last year with a 760 OPS but the main thing that saved him were the 22 walks he took and two HR's to start the season.  If you saw how Tampa played him yesterday you can see why he will always have a low BABIP I think it was the lowest in baseball.  Everyone was shifted to the right they had the second baseman playing shallow outfield.  Centerfielder was to the far right and the right fielder was shaded to the line.  The outfielders could play deep because the second base man had part of shallow right field covered.  Max would need to hit a laser over the first baseman or shortstops head that couldn't be caught by the second baseman just to get a hit to right field.  Right field is so crowded he virtually only has three outcomes a walk a Home Run and an out.  He has been making a lot of outs lately.

Now imagine a player that could use the opposite field and raise his BABIP?  Honestly he might be an All-Star player.  He makes contact a good percentage of the time but he hits it literally to the same place every time. Didn't Moustakis have to reinvent himself because he couldn't get hits because of the shift?  I think Max needs to do the same thing.  The BABIP information is telling us something.  He is too predictable and the shift is beating him.

I take nothing negative from Pineda's performance, nor should you. He's just trying stuff, working on stuff, and getting his innings in. Period.

Very happy that we finally have a final and positive outcome in regard to Thorpe's extra option year. This is not just good news for the Twins, but as much so for Thorpe. After his disappointing 2020, and there is no further reason to reflect or react, he came to camp in great shape mentally, emotionally and physically. He has shown to the Twins and himself he is ready. There are only so many roster spots available to begin the season. NOW, which version of him begins 2021? Is it the 2020 version who suffered and struggled with "whatever"? Or is he the talented young prospect who lost 2yrs due to injury and illness and fought hard to re-establish himself as a quality/top prospect and who has worked so hard now to get ready for 2021? I'm betting on the latter and fully believe Thorpe and Dobnak will play important roles in 2021 in the pen and rotation while also making themselves pertinent parts of the 2022 staff.

As far as Max goes, please correct me if wrong, but hasn't he had a couple bad springs before cranking it up when the season started?

Waddell isn't going to break camp unless there is an injury. And I know his appearances were mostly late innings, but DAMN, can't you still be impressed by a relatively young LHP doing tbat well? Watch out Thielbar.

Kepler still needs to start hitting to the opposite field more.

MLB.com actually has spring training stats dating back to 2006, selectable in drop-down menus on both the team stat pages and the individual player pages, so we can check it out!

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146

 

Kepler's career spring training line is poor overall, at .204/.268/.292 for a .560 OPS in 272 PA.

 

And actually each individual spring has been fairly poor too, with the exception of 2019. In spring 2019, he had a .957 OPS and 3 HR; he's never hit a spring HR outside of that year, and never topped a .601 OPS otherwise either. 2019 also happened to be his best regular-season performance at the plate, with 36 HR and a 123 OPS+ (and also the year when the league as a whole hit a high-water mark for HR, prompting some changes in the baseball now).

 

I still don't think the spring samples are large enough to be particularly meaningful. Maybe this spring is a minor harbinger against a superstar breakout, but still no reason Kepler shouldn't be able to hit his ZiPS projection for 2021 (113 wRC+, 2.8 WAR).

His regular season numbers aren't that much different though except for slugging.  He has about a 230 BA except in 2019 he gains about 100 points in OBP with his good eye at the plate. Yes he does hit more HR's in the regular season and HR's do beat the shift but that is about the only difference. The extra HR's also up his batting average slightly from the spring numbers.  He is who he is at this point.

The BABIP will never normalize for him with his current approach.  It will stay the same because he hits directly into the shift.  The breakout talk should go away.  If you are OK with his current level of production then I guess he will be fine but he could be a lot better if he used the other half of the field it is there for a reason.  If he used it, It would also would give him a chance to normalize his BABIP and potentially break out, but I digress.

Pitchers have always tried to cheat. If they get caught, let them be punished. The threat of forensics investigating the balls should be enough to cut down on the cheating. But look at it this situation: 7th inning. 2 men on. Dangerous hitter at bat.

Why not use a foreign substance to increase the spin rate and make the ball move more. You get the batter out and 3 days later they suspend you because they found trace evidence on the ball. Unless the suspension is dreadfully long. You laugh it off and treat it as a vacation and your club makes sure you are repaid for the expense.

I was able to find a spray chart on Kepler from 2019 which was his best year.   Obviously a pull hitter but there was definitely color all over the field.   Can't find the 2020 one.  Anyone know how it looks?

I can't believe my eyes on those spray charts.  I haven't seen him hit anything to the left side all spring.  Even when I watched games last year granted I don't watch all of them or every single play but I don't remember him getting a hit the other way only home runs to right field and the occasional hit to right.  Maybe my memory is bad.  Is there a chart for balls hit that includes outs. Something feels off here to me.