Leadoff Candidate Conundrum

You had me until Grossman.  I figured the fourth guy would be Polanco.

If they bat Grossman lead off, I will follow the Brewers this year.

cheers,

The Twins don't have an ideal leadoff hitter. Let Dozier lead off until somebody else steps up. He likes hitting leadoff and is an elite baserunner (8th best in the majors from 2014 to 2016, according to Fangraphs). Mauer prefers not to lead off and got on base only two more times per 100 PA last year. Not enough to make up for the base running difference. Maybe Buxton moves up by the middle of the season.

The Indians and Cubs don't have an ideal leadoff hitter either. In a couple of ways, their choices are a lot like Dozier. Santana is a superior OBP guy and Schwarber will probably get on base a lot. They both hit for power. The only difference is that they won't run the bases nearly as well as Dozier. 

I would continue to work Buxton at the top throughout ST. 1 or 2, he will eventually be there. But if the season started tomorrow, I'd probably bat Polanco 1.

I'm very optimistic about Polanco's bat. He is definitely a candidate for the leadoff spot and I wouldn't complain if they put him there. I also like a scenario where Polanco protects Sano. He puts the ball in play a lot. That'll put pressure on the pitcher during Sano's AB if Mauer and/or Dozier have already reached base.

i think with a growing team like this one, we should all expect all of these guys to get some run at the lead off spot. Who sticks is less likely to come down to performance in that particular, important role.

Also, I always appreciate when a writer can find an image with the three exact guys he wants in the same picture. As someone who has dealt with the Getty Images lotto, kudos.

For those of us a bit longer in the tooth, you might recall Brian Downing batting lead for the Angels back in the 80's

I remember Rick Monday leading off in the 70's....

Buxton has the speed, no question.  I also think there are better options for leadoff hitter.  Buxton's getting better, no question.  At this point of the year, I'd rather see that OB% guy in front of him. 

Bill James has demonstrated that your best OBP guys should lead off and hit 4th and that your expected runs from an inning skyrocket if you get the leadoff guy on base.

James also has demonstrated that most major league managers don't understand the 3rd spot in the order, believing that spot should be reserved for your premier hitter, when in fact, it is almost the opposite.  Instead, it should be the spot you slip your power hitting guy that strikes out a lot (unless you aint got those).

I think the Twins lineup should be:

1.   Mauer/Grossman    Let them work the pitchers deep into counts and get on base.  They have enough power to keep the pitchers honest.

2.   Polanco

3.   Dozier

4,   Sano

5.   Kepler

6.   DH Platoon

7.   Rosario

8.   Casto

9.   Buxton  Hopefully he develops the OBP to move to the top of the order.

I think eventually Buxton takes over as the leadoff hitter but I don't want him penciled in there now just because.  I want him to start the year off in the 9 hole and force his way higher in the lineup by having good ABs and learning pitch selection.

Bill James has demonstrated that your best OBP guys should lead off and hit 4th and that your expected runs from an inning skyrocket if you get the leadoff guy on base.

 

James also has demonstrated that most major league managers don't understand the 3rd spot in the order, believing that spot should be reserved for your premier hitter, when in fact, it is almost the opposite.  Instead, it should be the spot you slip your power hitting guy that strikes out a lot (unless you aint got those).

 

I think the Twins lineup should be:

 

1.   Mauer/Grossman    Let them work the pitchers deep into counts and get on base.  They have enough power to keep the pitchers honest.

2.   Polanco

3.   Dozier

4,   Sano

5.   Kepler

6.   DH Platoon

7.   Rosario

8.   Casto

9.   Buxton  Hopefully he develops the OBP to move to the top of the order.

I'm with except by your own definition Sano and Dozier would swap places.   Sano struck out 36% of the time in 2016 and Dozier had 21 points better OBP.

In what universe does it make sense to give Buxton more PAs than Dozier?

Funny.   I imagine the same universe where Punto, or Casilla or Tolbert or even Everett got more at bats in games than Mauer, Morneau and Cuddyer.  At least it is still possible Buxton could prove to be the right choice.

I start Buxton at 9 until he has sustained success.

Even in Dozier's great season last year, Mauer was on base 2 percent more. So Mauer leads off and hopefully some of Dozier's HR have guys on base. Facing a lefty, we can probably find a better lead off hitter than Mauer unless his numbers revert towards career numbers vs LHP

I am old school.  I like speed.  I like the disruption.  I remember the Rickey Henderson, Maury Wills batters that distract and worry the pitcher, hurry up the defense and generally make the other team uncomfortable. 

 

Buxton

Polanco

Sano

Dozier

Park

Kepler

Mauer

Castro

Rosario

What Link said. Once Buxton calms down and realizes he belongs in The Show, I think he's the prototype leadoff Henderson/Wills style hitter, base stealer, and general disruptor.

It certainly would be nice if someone can step up and be productive in the leadoff spot so Dozier can move down. But someone's gotta show they can handle it. It's not Mauer. It would be nice if it could be Buxton or Polanco.

But I think at this point we would take anybody who can do it who isn't supposed to be in the middle of the order (Sano, Dozier, Vargas/Park).

If the Twins can't solve this problem in 2017 let's hope they admit they can't solve it without help.  They are already overdue with signing a high OBP free agent who has proven he can hit leadoff. This problem has gone on since Span/Revere were traded for chaff.

I'm with the let-Dozier-leadoff-to-begin-until-Buxton-gets-more-comfortable crowd.

RH

Polanco

Buxton

Dozier

Sano

Kepler

Vargas

Mauer 1B

Castro

Rosario

LH

Polanco

Buxton

Dozier

Sano

Kepler

Vargas

Park 1B

Castro

Rosario

Why would you put the speedier Buxton behind Polanco?  The dude could hit 40-50 doubles + triples a year if no one is in front of him.  That's a hell of a leadoff guy.