Kirilloff's 2018 One for the Ages

If the Twins don't move Kirillof, Gordon, Lewis, and Rooker to the majors next season they are insane.  

Sure, they will struggle, but you stick by them.  Let them work it out.  By the end of the season they will most likely be showing progress.  We may lose even more games than we did this year, but getting this cohort of prospects in all at once is important.

If after 125 games or so they are not figuring out then they are not high level prospects.  

We need to stop pretending that high quality major league prospects cannot jump to the majors without moving through every level of the minors.

How is Kiriloff’s arm? Which “corner” would work best for him? And might he play 1B in 2020 while Rokker takes over in 2021?

Any reason to start him at high-A for a month next year and then move him up to the Lookouts?

If the Twins don't move Kirillof, Gordon, Lewis, and Rooker to the majors next season they are insane.  

 

Sure, they will struggle, but you stick by them.  Let them work it out.  By the end of the season they will most likely be showing progress.  We may lose even more games than we did this year, but getting this cohort of prospects in all at once is important.

 

If after 125 games or so they are not figuring out then they are not high level prospects.  

 

We need to stop pretending that high quality major league prospects cannot jump to the majors without moving through every level of the minors.

There is zero reason to move Gordon up to the MLB until he proves he can actually hit AAA pitching. He has done nothing to deserve a promotion. Lewis will most likely start next season in High A so there is no way he's going to move all the way up to the MLB in 2019. He'll probably spend a month in High A and if he's doing well then move up to AA but I highly doubt he makes it to the MLB. Kiriloff definitely has a chance since he'll start next season in AA but most likely won't get a call up until September. Rooker is really the only one who has a realistic shot since he should start next season at AAA but he definitely needs to cut down on the strikeouts or his bat will never make it.

good thing for ATL fans that team doesn't operate that way......

So you’d bring all four of them up next year just to see if they sink or swim? Worked great for Hick and Buxton.

If the Twins don't move Kirillof, Gordon, Lewis, and Rooker to the majors next season they are insane.  

 

Sure, they will struggle, but you stick by them.  Let them work it out.  By the end of the season they will most likely be showing progress.  We may lose even more games than we did this year, but getting this cohort of prospects in all at once is important.

 

If after 125 games or so they are not figuring out then they are not high level prospects.  

 

We need to stop pretending that high quality major league prospects cannot jump to the majors without moving through every level of the minors.

Why stop there? Graterol, Thorpe and Rortvedt could all come up then.

I wouldn't be against a complete youth movement.

I mean of those 7 in reality over a few will make it but it could be better than wasting them in the minors for another 3 - 5 years.

I remember the same sense of urgency about advancement when the prospect's names were Rich Becker, Scott Stahoviak, Marty Cordova...we always champ at the bit , right?

Remembering this reminds me to lower my expectations, for one, and to wait patiently. I'm convinced the organization gets the timetable right more often that we give them credit.

I'm also of the belief that if Lewis, Romero, Rooker, Thorpe, Kirilloff, Gordon, Rortvedt, Graterol, Wade, Gonsalves, et al were all in Atlanta's pipeline rather than ours, their progress would be much more similar to what it's been than a lot of people think.

At some point in 2019, 2020 for sure, Kirilloff, Rooker and Kepler can make a formidable trio to man 1B/RF/DH. By all accounts I've read, Rooker is a good athlete, not a slugging statue, and can be a solid OF. Ditto for Kirilloff. We already know how good Kepler is defensively, even as a solid CF. None of them bas to be pigeon holed in to only 1 spot. But I wonder what the best combination of the three would entail?

Well said.   Having seen Rooker play in person, I'd fully agree with that assessment.   He really is a very good athlete and could very easily man a corner spot in the outfield, although I personally feel that he could be a very good fit at 1B.

Rooker has a chance.  The others will have a chance in 2020.

Kiriloff is reminding a few of us of Kent Hrbek who came up from A ball. He would have to dominate at Chattanooga until the All-Star break before any talk of promotion next year. Rochester seems to be where our minor leaguers go to become AAAA fodder so I'm not sure I would send our top prospects there.

I hope the front office knows when the time is right to bring players up from the minors, but if they don't make some serious trades or sign some good free agents who will come to the park next year to watch the current team? If they bring up prospects too soon, it means they struck out in improving the team and not many will admit to that. The jury is still out on Falvine. I hope they wheel and deal again like they did last off-season--though with players who actually earn their salary. If not, they will have no choice but to bring up prospects whether they are ready or not.

Acuna Jr. played 57 games at AA and 54 games at AAA last year. He then played another 23 games at AAA this year, so he got plenty of experience at the top two levels before moving up to the Braves. 

Albies played 82 games in 2016 at AA and then 56 games at AAA. In 2017 he played 97 games in AAA.

So, the Braves top two young talents both played a minimum of 77 games in AAA. Kirilloff could be on a similar path next season. He could play 60 games at AA and then moves up and plays another 60 games at AAA but that would basically be the entire minor league season. At that point he could then be called up in September, which would be an exceptionally quick track for him since he missed an entire season. Gordon would have likely been on the Twins had he performed at all in AAA this season. Based on how the new FO is operating prospects are moving up much quicker than they did under TR. 

Both Albies and Acuna had the same path 17 rookie, 18 A, 19, A+, AA, AAA, 20 majors.

This is very similar to Kirilloff, except he started at 18 and had TJ surgery. He actually could be a bit ahead of them if he is up next year.

Lewis is also very similar.

If the Twins go with the ATL model, next year both start in high A and finish in AAA, and get called up real early in 2020.

With the pretext that I'm interested in putting a winning club on the field next year, I'd have preferred to give Rooker, Thorpe and Wade some decent playing time this year so as if they take some adjusting they may do it in a losing season. Next year if they are contending they may be hesitant to rely on the young players.

 

Let's say the team is contending, and those three are still behind a healthy Mauer, Odorizzi and Kepler and those three vets are still painfully under performing, I'm not sure the team has the stones to replace below average but not terrible vets with untested rookies.

I agree that if Mauer and Kepler aren't performing the FO and Molitor would be less likely to bench them for rookies but I don't know if they would for Odorizzi especially if Gonsalves or Thorpe are dominating AAA.

Great article, Ted.  And great discussion!

Expect AK will be in Chattanooga in the spring.  What happens after that remains to be seen.  We can speculate all we want (yes, I want him at Target Field asap), but he will determine how fast he advances.  As for me, will hold my breath and hope that this kid turns out to be that special player we thought we had a few years ago with Sano and Buxton.