Kenta Maeda Agrees to Deal with Tigers

Disappointing that the Twins would not match that contract, but understandable if they think Paddack and/or one of the MiLB guys can replace his numbers.

37 minutes ago, Dman said:

I just hope I am not going to be disappointed with what Falvine are going to end up doing. 

That's what I keep telling myself - wait until the entire offseason is done to evaluate the FO as they often make moves at the end (and not always for scraps).

I'm actually kind of relieved the Twins didn't sign Maeda.  They should be able to do better.  Severino would interest me if i knew more about his health, his fastball and spin rates.  He has the best track record of the 3 pitchers you listed and he's a year younger than Montas.  He might not be a bad gamble as a #4 or #5 guy that pitches like a #3.  

But the way the Twins FO always watches the world pass by with free agents, I have to believe their first move will be a trade for a SP that could be the #2 behind Lopez involving Kepler or Polanco or BOTH so they see their payroll reduction desires realized with the $10-$20 million in salary moving out.  

The question then becomes:  Who do they think we match up best with for a trade?  Seattle?  Miami?  Milwaukee?  

Adding to Twins offseason woes:  MLBTR reports Cards signing Gray today.  No surprise, but still we have lost 2 of our top 3(or4) starters.  Not a good way to start the offseason, especially if FO/ownership intends to surpass last years' results.

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

The names you list at the end are not FA pitchers that would interest me.  I think we trade now.

Good luck to Maeda - I think the Twins were right not to extend the contract to two years. 

I think the pitchers in that list are more a half or full step below Maeda, particularly looking at contract projections.

Maeda got exactly the Fangraphs crowd projected contract, and the other guys with the same or very similar projections are Lugo, Clevinger, and Manaea.

I don't know if they'll be in on any of those names, but I think there are still some better FA pitchers that could be within the Twins range.  If they do sign one of the guys mentioned in the article I think it'll be a significantly cheaper contract.  That could be a disappointment, but they always have a plan for the pitchers they acquire and it could end up being a better signing if their plan is a good one.  We've seen it happen a few times now.

1 hour ago, Dman said:

First let me say I am a big Maeda believer.  I know he hasn't pitched a complete season in some time and tends to wear down as the season goes on, but he still is a quality pitcher and for 12M per year that seems like a bargain to me and even more so on a short term deal for what he will bring to Detroit.

Really solid move by the Detroit FO IMO.  They still have money to spend so I assume other moves will be coming for them.

If the Twins weren't willing to match that offer then they must feel like they can get a trade done for starting pitching as well as get someone better than Maeda?  Otherwise why not take a short term deal on a guy you know and is a pretty consistent performer?  Varland\Festa is some depth but not enough IMO.  I just hope I am not going to be disappointed with what Falvine are going to end up doing. 

12 mil for depth ,  isn't that what they were after in 2023 ...

One good year  of pitching out of 7 years of control ...

They better give us fans a nice  Christmas present  ...

Gray just signed with the Cardinals for 3 years / $75 million.

40 minutes ago, LewFordLives said:

If this is Maeda's last contract, it'll be a nice payday to end his career.

Yes, I feel good for Maeda. He's been underpaid relative to performance his entire career and the injury made it risky that he would even get this contract. Glad he could come back and add 50% to his career earnings.

I will try to suspend judgement but my initial reaction to losing Maeda and Gray to very reasonable contracts is one of major disappointment.  I realize we are never going to compete for the 5-6 top FA pitchers each year but these signings seem like they should be in our wheelhouse. 

Twins off seasons have become acid inducing.  
 

49 minutes ago, mike8791 said:

Adding to Twins offseason woes:  MLBTR reports Cards signing Gray today.  No surprise, but still we have lost 2 of our top 3(or4) starters.  Not a good way to start the offseason, especially if FO/ownership intends to surpass last years' results.

Losing Gray was expected.   The 3 years at $75M is a great get for Sonny, but too much risk for MN.   He will be missed, but that money is better off elsewhere.  Let's just see where we spend it.

The financial part of baseball is tough.  It's hard to lose a good player, a good teammate, and a fan favorite just because of money.

The Twins must think he's going to regress. They know better than me.

I've written before about the 8 year old fan who lives inside me and doesn't understand or care about profits. He has a 3 step approach for making a better team:

1. Figure out the biggest need for your team. 

2. Find the best available player for that position 

3. Pay the man.

Yeah, well, the old man that I am tells him to grow up.  It doesn't work that way.  Wait a minute... Are the Yankees run by an 8 year old?

I heard the Twins team is worth $1.4 billion. And it was purchased for about $87 million back in the 80's. So it looks like there is some equity there, even if the cash flow is questionable.  They could borrow against their equity if they had to. 

Putting a winning team on the field is the surest way of generating fan interest and revenue. Fielding a losing team is the surest way of losing fan interest and revenue. Oops, there's that 8 year old again.

Letting a very good pitcher like Maeda leave, especially to your closest division rival, for a mere $12MM, looks like they value profits over winning

With Gray expected to sign with the Cardinals today for 3 years and 75 million and maeda gone, the Twins need to shore up the starting pitching.  Will they or won't they?  You never know what this FO or ownership will do.  I don't think they have a clue.  They had signed Correa to a 6 year 200 million deal then Buxton to a seven (?) Year extension.  Seems like very poor planning to me.  The industry has known about Bally Sports pending bankruptcy for at least two years.  Why do you spend 300 million on two players and then start cutting payroll?  Seems foolish.  Also foolish to give 100 million to a guy that is on the injured list much more than tge playing field.  Now they are cutting a few scouting positions.  With all that money tied up in two players there's not much left to spend on improvements.  Hopefully they make some good trades. They've missed on a few of them.  

1 hour ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I'm actually kind of relieved the Twins didn't sign Maeda.  They should be able to do better.  Severino would interest me if i knew more about his health, his fastball and spin rates.  He has the best track record of the 3 pitchers you listed and he's a year younger than Montas.  He might not be a bad gamble as a #4 or #5 guy that pitches like a #3.  

But the way the Twins FO always watches the world pass by with free agents, I have to believe their first move will be a trade for a SP that could be the #2 behind Lopez involving Kepler or Polanco or BOTH so they see their payroll reduction desires realized with the $10-$20 million in salary moving out.  

The question then becomes:  Who do they think we match up best with for a trade?  Seattle?  Miami?  Milwaukee?  

Agreed.  We know what the best of Maeda could look like.  I feel taking a flier on someone like Severino (who started a playoff game against us a couple of years ago) has potential to be someone who still has lots left in the tank if we can get him out of NY and could very likely equal or exceed what Maeda would have given us at this point in his career.

3 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

The names you list at the end are not FA pitchers that would interest me.  I think we trade now.

Good luck to Maeda - I think the Twins were right not to extend the contract to two years. 

Looks like trade is the best, and likely only, avenue for getting a solid starter.  Tigers paid a Premium for an older pitcher.  I don't think he is worth it.  And now the Cardinals paid $75 Million over 3 years for Gray.  The market is pretty goofy.  Was hoping it would take $65 million over 3 years for Gray.  Clearly too rich for the Twins.  They NEED to make a big trade as you can't lose two starters and not expect regression.

O.K. Twins Daily fans, here is the solution to the Twins off season pitching woes.  It is rumored (I'm in trouble already) that Yoshi Yamamoto wants to sign with Seattle.  One problem:  the Mariners already have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Ray, Miller and Woo plus Marco Gonzalez.  What could the Mariners possibly do to remedy that?  

Sir, the Twins are on line #1...

Mariners Get:  Edouard Julien 35.3  Max Kepler 8.2 and Marco Raya 6.9  Total 50.5 value.

Twins Get:  Bryce Miller 25.8 value 25 yo SP and Bryan Woo 24.6 23 yo SP.  Total Value:  50.4

The Mariners might prefer Polanco but can't pass up a slugging, young 2B who is an on base machine for their moribund offense.  Plus, he helps budget wise to fit in Yamamoto.  They add a Gold Glove caliber RF and solid bat in Kepler and replace the loss of 2 young arms with a good prospect in Raya.  The Mariners rotation is Yamamoto, Castillo, Kirby, Ray and Gilbert.  That's quite a staff.

The Twins add two, young controllable and talented arms to their rotation which now features Lopez, Miller, Woo, Ryan and Ober.  The Twins now hang onto Polanco until the trade deadline and await the imminent arrival of Brooks Lee to play 2B.  

With a staff like that, with Paddack to provide depth and Varland in the pen the Twins are set on the mound for the next 5 years.  There is no need to gamble on a free agent arm like Severino, Giolito, or Montas.  

It would be BIG.  It would be BOLD.  But if Yamamoto REALLY wants to sign with Seattle they need to clear room.  They would have a staff for the ages and an improved offense with Julien and Kepler.  The Twins have an affordable pitching staff through the years of arbitration and Brooks Lee has always been destined to move Julien off 2B.  

1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

With Gray expected to sign with the Cardinals today for 3 years and 75 million and maeda gone, the Twins need to shore up the starting pitching.  Will they or won't they?  You never know what this FO or ownership will do.  I don't think they have a clue.  They had signed Correa to a 6 year 200 million deal then Buxton to a seven (?) Year extension.  Seems like very poor planning to me.  The industry has known about Bally Sports pending bankruptcy for at least two years.  Why do you spend 300 million on two players and then start cutting payroll?  Seems foolish.  Also foolish to give 100 million to a guy that is on the injured list much more than tge playing field.  Now they are cutting a few scouting positions.  With all that money tied up in two players there's not much left to spend on improvements.  Hopefully they make some good trades. They've missed on a few of them.  

Joe Pohlad took things over last offseason. The changes have to be coming from him.

14 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

O.K. Twins Daily fans, here is the solution to the Twins off season pitching woes.  It is rumored (I'm in trouble already) that Yoshi Yamamoto wants to sign with Seattle.  One problem:  the Mariners already have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Ray, Miller and Woo plus Marco Gonzalez.  What could the Mariners possibly do to remedy that?  

Sir, the Twins are on line #1...

Mariners Get:  Edouard Julien 35.3  Max Kepler 8.2 and Marco Raya 6.9  Total 50.5 value.

Twins Get:  Bryce Miller 25.8 value 25 yo SP and Bryan Woo 24.6 23 yo SP.  Total Value:  50.4

The Mariners might prefer Polanco but can't pass up a slugging, young 2B who is an on base machine for their moribund offense.  Plus, he helps budget wise to fit in Yamamoto.  They add a Gold Glove caliber RF and solid bat in Kepler and replace the loss of 2 young arms with a good prospect in Raya.  The Mariners rotation is Yamamoto, Castillo, Kirby, Ray and Gilbert.  That's quite a staff.

The Twins add two, young controllable and talented arms to their rotation which now features Lopez, Miller, Woo, Ryan and Ober.  The Twins now hang onto Polanco until the trade deadline and await the imminent arrival of Brooks Lee to play 2B.  

With a staff like that, with Paddack to provide depth and Varland in the pen the Twins are set on the mound for the next 5 years.  There is no need to gamble on a free agent arm like Severino, Giolito, or Montas.  

It would be BIG.  It would be BOLD.  But if Yamamoto REALLY wants to sign with Seattle they need to clear room.  They would have a staff for the ages and an improved offense with Julien and Kepler.  The Twins have an affordable pitching staff through the years of arbitration and Brooks Lee has always been destined to move Julien off 2B.  

I would rather give up Polanco than Julien and only get one SP back. Polanco and Jax for Miller or Woo.

I won't argue with that deal DJL44.  The Twins could still make a trade of Kepler to Miami for Edward Cabrera and they'd then have two rotation spots covered with young, talented pitchers.  And they would still have Julien at the top of their order as well.  

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Joe Pohlad took things over last offseason. The changes have to be coming from him.

You are correct  that Joe took over  last off season  but you can bet he is asking Jim for advice or Jim is telling him , you can't make money all the time  but you better make money most of the time  ... 

The pohlads are in it to make money  not to win it  ...

Cutting payroll with an open window is evidence that their love of money is greater than the love of baseball  ...

7 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

O.K. Twins Daily fans, here is the solution to the Twins off season pitching woes.  It is rumored (I'm in trouble already) that Yoshi Yamamoto wants to sign with Seattle.  One problem:  the Mariners already have Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Ray, Miller and Woo plus Marco Gonzalez.  What could the Mariners possibly do to remedy that?  

Sir, the Twins are on line #1...

Mariners Get:  Edouard Julien 35.3  Max Kepler 8.2 and Marco Raya 6.9  Total 50.5 value.

Twins Get:  Bryce Miller 25.8 value 25 yo SP and Bryan Woo 24.6 23 yo SP.  Total Value:  50.4

The Mariners might prefer Polanco but can't pass up a slugging, young 2B who is an on base machine for their moribund offense.  Plus, he helps budget wise to fit in Yamamoto.  They add a Gold Glove caliber RF and solid bat in Kepler and replace the loss of 2 young arms with a good prospect in Raya.  The Mariners rotation is Yamamoto, Castillo, Kirby, Ray and Gilbert.  That's quite a staff.

The Twins add two, young controllable and talented arms to their rotation which now features Lopez, Miller, Woo, Ryan and Ober.  The Twins now hang onto Polanco until the trade deadline and await the imminent arrival of Brooks Lee to play 2B.  

With a staff like that, with Paddack to provide depth and Varland in the pen the Twins are set on the mound for the next 5 years.  There is no need to gamble on a free agent arm like Severino, Giolito, or Montas.  

It would be BIG.  It would be BOLD.  But if Yamamoto REALLY wants to sign with Seattle they need to clear room.  They would have a staff for the ages and an improved offense with Julien and Kepler.  The Twins have an affordable pitching staff through the years of arbitration and Brooks Lee has always been destined to move Julien off 2B.  

Love this. I’d do it in a heartbeat. 

This off-season has begun with kind of a Grinch-like (Pohlad-like?) tone if you ask me. Securing Maeda would have been pretty easy and relatively inexpensive.

Maybe the front office does know more about pitching than I do, but something they certainly know more about is cutting corners at the fans' expense. After last spring's moves (which were pretty dramatice by Twins standards) and our playoff win, I thought this would be a new era in MN, where the Twins considered winning as being king. I just don't get that sense anymore with recent announcements and moves. "Let's see if we can milk this playoff win by going cheap. Hey, we might find something in the dumpster that turns out to be edible or even delicious, and if it doesn't? Who cares. We tried...sort of." 

Sorry, but this has been a very disappointing off-season so far, and this most recent move brings that home. Saying that Maeda really wasn't worth $12? He was only one year recovered from TJ surgery and he still pitched fairly well. He'll probably be 100% recovered this year, so my guess is he'll pitch a lot of innings for Detroit.

In the end, I hope Minnesota doesn't revert to being the team that no one wants to play for and our present budding stars hope to flee from, but it is not heading in the right direction IMHO.